Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 240519

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
119 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

High pressure will build into the region over the next couple
of days, leading to dry conditions and a warming trend through
mid week. A cold front will move through the area Wednesday
night into Thursday bringing the next chance for precipitation.


Upper level low over the TN VLY to drift slowly south with
clouds and pcpn rotating around this feature. Thick shield of high
level clouds overspread ILN/s area this afternoon.

ILN 00z sounding shows dry air in the low levels. Deformation
zone evident on radar marking the northern extent of pcpn over
ne KY and se OH. This pcpn is having a difficult time advancing
into the dry air. Have continued a very low pop chance of a
shower in over ILN/s southeast counties, associated with surface
inverted trof.

Expect some thinning of the high level clouds, especially over
the northwest counties. Expect lows to range from the lower 40s
northwest to the upper 40s southeast.


The upper level low will continue to shift off to the southeast
on Monday to just off the southeast coast through Monday night.
It looks like a weak inverted trough may hang back across the
Tennessee Valley possibly extending up toward the mid Ohio
Valley. This will allow for the low level flow to become more
east southeasterly through the day on Monday, leading to some
850 mb moisture advection up into at least our southern areas.
This will likely lead to an increase in some lower level clouds
as we progress through the day. Highs on Monday will be somewhat
dependent on the amount of cloudiness, but generally expect
highs in the upper 60s to around 70.


For Tuesday and Wednesday, the area will be under a dry
southerly flow between slow moving areas of low pressure located
to the east and west. Showers and thunderstorms will develop
Wednesday night and Thursday when a cold front is forecast to
swing through from the west. Western locations should see more a
favorable environment for precip, with eastern sites having
lower pops as the front moves into less conducive conditions

The front may then stall south of the Ohio River Friday, before
lifting back toward the Great Lakes on Saturday and Sunday. Shower
and thunderstorm chances will persist in the moisture, instability,
and convergence associated with the front.

Warm temperatures will be the rule in a regime featuring above
normal geopotential heights, though readings will vary somewhat with
respect to frontal position. Highs in the mid 70s Tuesday will
increase to the low 80s Wednesday under warm advection ahead of the
cold front. A retreat back to the low 70s Thursday due to frontal
passage will be followed by a rebound back to around 80 by next


VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. There will
be a gradual increase in mid and high clouds through the period
at all TAF sites, as well as a few low VFR clouds (generally
above 4kft) making it into Cincinnati this morning and
afternoon. If there is any potential for MVFR ceilings, it may
occur briefly on Tuesday morning.

Winds will remain out of the northeast today at around 10 knots,
gradually shifting to the east by tonight into Tuesday.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings will be possible on Thursday along with
a chance of thunderstorms.




LONG TERM...Coniglio
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