Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 300845
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
445 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE REGION FROM
NEAR DAYTON TO COLUMBUS IS FINALLY BEGINNING WEAKEN. SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE HOWEVER. CONVECTION WILL
REFIRE LATER IN THE DAY AS H5 SHORTWAVE SWINGING THRU THE GREAT
LAKES INTERACTS WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY SHOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSER TO THE S/W.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL SEE H5 ENERGY...LIFTING N FROM THE DEEP SOUTH...REACH
THE REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE CONVECTION TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY SEES H5 RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD INTO OHIO
VALLEY. SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MANAGES TO SLIP UNDER THE RIDGE
AND INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY TO KEEP A
MENTION OF A 20 POP MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER ON TUESDAY...REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS
CONTINUING IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

S/W TO DROP SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AT MID WEEK WITH RIDGE AXIS
RE-ESTABLISHING TO OUR WEST. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO HAVE INCLUDED
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN.

WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED TO OUR WEST THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...A NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY. ENHANCED FORCING
WILL BE LACKING BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. DO
TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING HAVE LIMITED POPS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE AFTN. WARM TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S.

THE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD EAST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL ACT TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY.
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WEST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF IT THIS EARLY MORNING AND SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS A RESULT. OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS THAT
OCCUR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD BE VFR.

MODELS ARE SPARING ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF STORMS LATER TODAY AND
FOCUS THEM ON A NARROW LINE RUNNING SW-NE. DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL...THE LINE COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM ALONG THE I-71 CORRIDOR TO
NW OF METRO DAYTON. RESOLVED THIS WITH VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON. MODELS DIMINISH ACTIVITY SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 0Z AND
HUMIDITY PROFILE ALSO BECOMES QUITE SCATTERED WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME CLEAR SKIES AT KCVG TOWARDS DAYBREAK WHICH COULD ALLOW A
DROP IN VSBYS IN FOG TO THE MVFR CATEGORY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS



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