Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 191708

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1208 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

High pressure centered over the Gulf Coast states will extend
up into the region through Saturday. This will keep
southwesterly flow across the area, resulting in dry conditions
and a gradual warming of temperatures through the end of the
work week. The next chance of precipitation will be Saturday
night into Sunday morning.


Temperatures have already started to warm this morning as
Arctic high pressure over Alabama and Mississippi continues to
weaken. Latest KILN sounding continues to show WAA occurring in
the lower levels with 850 MB temperatures warming to 2 degrees C
above zero. This will easily make high temperatures above
freezing across the area today for the first time since January
12th. Forecast looks on track and have made only minor changes
this morning.

Prev Discussion->
High pressure centered down in the Gulf Coast states will keep
the area dry today. The pressure gradient on the north side of
the high will keep winds up. Expect southwest winds 10 to 15
mph with gusts into the 20s. Some scattered cirrus will drop
down from the upper Great Lakes, but skies will still be mostly

Warm air advection at the surface and aloft will push
temperatures above freezing. Highs will range from the mid 30s
in the north to the upper 30s around the Ohio River.


As the high begins to transition east tonight, southerly flow
will continue. Skies will remain mostly clear as scattered
cirrus works through the region in the zonal flow. Lows are
forecast to drop back to the mid to upper 20s.

On Saturday, low level moisture begins to increase. A couple of
models are still suggesting that light showers might develop in
the wwa on Saturday. Stayed with the majority of forecasts and
kept Saturday dry for now. The warming trend will continue, with
highs pushing into the 40s across the region.

Scattered showers develop Saturday night on the backside of the
high. Temperatures will only drop into the mid 30s. On Sunday,
the best chance of rain will gradually shift north during the
day. Highs will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal with highs
generally between the mid 40s north to the lower 50s south.


Mid/upper level flow to back with and deepening surface wave
ejecting from the central plains Sunday into the Great Lakes
Monday night into Tuesday.

Models solutions diverge on exact timing but slower trend continues
with system and associated associated surface cold front expected to
sweep east through ILN/s FA later Monday/Monday night . Therefore,
will ramp rain pops Monday afternoon into Monday night. On the warm
side of the system, above normal temperatures to continue with highs
from near 50 northwest to the upper 50s southeast.

With upper low tracking through the Great Lakes, a chance of
precipitation will linger into Tuesday with rain changing to snow.
The best chance will occur across the north counties, closer to the
upper lows. Temperatures turn closer to normal with highs Tuesday
from the mid 30s northwest to the lower 40s southeast.

In the wake of this system surface high pressure to build across the
region. This feature will provide dry weather for the middle of next
week. Temperatures will continue close to normal with Wednesdays
highs from the lower 30s north to the lower 40s south. Temperatures
will moderate slightly Thursday with highs from the upper 30s north
to the mid 40s south.


All TAF sites are currently VFR this afternoon with surface high
pressure located over the Alabama/ Mississippi border. The
pressure gradient remains tight this afternoon allowing for
winds to be gusty at times. Saturday morning some stronger low
level winds will work into the region which will provide some
borderline LLWS. The event appears transient enough to leave out
of the TAFs though. Saturday, low pressure will start to get its
act together out in the Plains, but MVFR clouds are only
expected to push in towards the end of the TAF issuance. Not
completely sold on the cloud deck being BKN though as WAA
continues across the area.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Saturday afternoon into Sunday
night. MVFR ceilings and visibilities along with wind gusts to
25kt possible Monday.




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