Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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404
FXUS61 KILN 161051
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
651 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY...MOVING
THROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT WESTERN/CENTRAL OHIO AT 07Z.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...LIKELY DISSIPATING BY SUNRISE.

RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE EAST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. WEAK VORT MAXES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PERIODS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN NORTHERN
KENTUCKY/SOUTHWEST OHIO BY 10-11Z...MOVING NORTHEAST DURING THE
MORNING. THEN AN ADDITIONAL UPTICK IN CONVECTION WILL LIKELY OCCUR
FOR THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON GIVEN INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES /POSSIBLY AROUND 1.7 INCHES BY AFTERNOON/...AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANOTHER VORT MAX PROMOTING LIFT.
WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA DURING
THIS TIME.

GIVEN RELATIVE WEAK INSTABILITY /MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING CAPE
LESS THAN 1000 J/KG/ AND SHEAR...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER CAN/T RULE OUT A LOCALLY STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
ALSO GIVEN HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY
RESULT.

USED A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY...FAVORING UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WHILE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION FROM THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHOULD WANE OVERNIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE CWA AS ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN WARM/MOIST AND ANY VORT MAX MAY
KEEP SOME CONVECTION GOING INTO THE NIGHT.

SIMILAR SITUATION IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT THE HIGHEST COVERAGE TO
FAVOR THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH ON
MONDAY. WIND FIELDS MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER AND COULD PROMOTE SOME
DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION TO THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOWEVER
AND WILL LEAVE MENTION OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OUT OF THE HWO
ATTM. MONDAY WILL FEATURE ONE MORE WARM/MUGGY DAY BEFORE CHANGES
OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND.
MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN A BIT AND GIVEN CURRENT
FORECASTED UPPER LEVEL FLOW THIS MAKES SENSE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
JUST NORTH OF WISCONSIN MONDAY WASHES OUT WITH A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. FORECASTED 850
TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK (5 - 10 DEGREES C) ALSO DON`T LOOK AS
COOL AS THEY WERE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HAVE TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES UP TOWARDS 70 A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL NECESSITATE SOME TYPE
OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM MENTION AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP INCREASED
MOISTURE TO THE REGION AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE A H5
RIDGE THAT IS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS ESTABLISHED RIDGE
WILL KEEP MOST STORMS IN CHECK AND THE CONSENSUS IN THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO IS FOR GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS OF A SCATTERED NATURE
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE DAY.

SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DROP VSBYS TO MVFR
VALUES BUT MOST CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS.
SATURATED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FOUND AT
VARIOUS LEVELS THAT WILL BE AS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AS THE
LOCATIONS OF THE STORMS. CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT MVFR CIGS FROM
CU/SC WHILE DROPPING THEM SLIGHTLY IN PRECIP WHICH IS MORE HEAVILY
FOCUSED IN TEMPO GROUPS.

WINDS WILL BE SSW AT 10KT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...HAINES
AVIATION...FRANKS







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