Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 232345
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
645 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS EVENING AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
OFFER MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT. A CLIPPER WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A FORECAST UPDATE WAS NECESSARY THIS EVENING AFTER EXAMINING
RECENT HRRR RUNS...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REPORTS OVER
KENTUCKY...AND RADAR TRENDS. THERE IS A SHARP EDGE TO THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS NOT IMMEDIATELY EVIDENT IF
VIEWING A LARGE-SCALE MOSAIC RADAR IMAGE (WHICH CAPTURES TOO MUCH
VIRGA). LOOKING AT JUST THE KILN WSR-88D...THE CONVEX APPEARANCE
OF THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS AN ARTIFACT. ECHOES BEING OBSERVED
FURTHER FROM THE RADAR INCLUDE VIRGA SAMPLED AT HIGHER LEVELS.
CLOSE TO THE RADAR...AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...IT IS MORE EVIDENT THAT
THE NORTHEASTERNMOST EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS RATHER SHARP.
THIS EDGE CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN OWEN COUNTY THROUGH
NORTHERN HIGHLAND COUNTY...AND IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE MUCH
ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD MOTION.

THE BIG CHANGE TO THE FORECAST INVOLVED PRECIPITATION TYPE...AS
VERY LITTLE RAIN HAS BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR...AND EARLY SNOW
ACCUMULATION REPORTS OVER KENTUCKY HAVE BEEN AT THE HIGHER END OF
WHAT WAS EXPECTED. A HEAVY BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN MOVING
ITS WAY GRADUALLY NORTHEAST...AND HAS NOW ENTERED THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ILN COUNTIES (LEWIS KY AND SCIOTO OH). THOUGH THE
MORE INTENSE ECHOES ARE PROBABLY OVERDONE DUE TO A LITTLE BIT OF
MELTING...SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THIS NECESSITATED AN INCREASE IN THE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION FORECAST. ALSO FACTORING IN SOME CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
LIGHT SNOW FOR SEVERAL ADDITIONAL HOURS (UNTIL AROUND 2
AM)...SNOWFALL COULD APPROACH TWO INCHES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA.
AN ADVISORY WAS CONSIDERED BUT ULTIMATELY NOT OPTED FOR...AS THIS
SNOW WILL BE VERY WET AND SLUSHY...AND ANTECEDENT GROUND
CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY WARM (ROAD TEMPS IN THE 40S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY WITH EMBEDDED WEAK VORT
DROPPING THRU SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING. WEAK SFC TROF TO WORK SE THRU
THE FA TOWARD EVENING. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OF MAINLY
SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE FAR NORTH. SATURDAYS HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH. ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS SAT
NIGHT WITH WEAK SFC RIDGE WORKING ACRS THE REGION. WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS...LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH
TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WHICH DROPS SE FROM THE UPPER MS
VLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. MODEL SOLNS DIFFER
ON EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. GENERAL TREND OF SOLN/S IS
A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK.

NAM HAS TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND TAKES THE SFC WAVE THRU
THE SRN I-70 CORRIDOR SUNDAY AFTN. THE GFS 06Z RUN WAS A LTL SOUTH
OF THIS TRACK AND NOW (12Z RUN) HAS SHIFTED THE SFC LOW TRACK TO
NEAR CVG BY 00Z MONDAY WITH IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF TRACK. MODELS ARE
TYPICALLY TOO FAR NORTH WITH THESE DIGGING SYSTEMS. THEREFORE...HAVE
GONE WITH A BLENDED GFS/ECMWF SOLN AND WILL BRING CATEGORICAL POPS
FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE ALL SNOW ACRS THE NORTH WITH A MIX...CHANGING TO
SNOW ACRS THE CENTRAL AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACRS THE FAR SOUTH.
IT IS EARLY WITH THIS BEING A 4TH AND 5TH PERIOD EVENT BUT AT THIS
TIME HAVE BUMPED UP SNOW TOTALS TO 2 TO 4 INCHES FROM I-70 ON NORTH
WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS NORTH. 18Z RUNS ARE TRENDING EVEN FURTHER
SOUTH WITH STORM TRACK...SO THIS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED FURTHER S.
HAVE ADJUSTED SUNDAY/S HIGHS A LTL COLDER RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S
N TO THE LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE UPPER TEENS
NORTH TO NEAR 30 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER WILL BE MOVING EAST ON
MONDAY. KEPT POPS BELOW PRECIP THRESHOLD ON TUESDAY WHEN A MINOR
DISTURBANCE IS SHOWN BY MODELS TO AFFECT ILLINOIS AND INDIANA.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW MAY OCCUR THURSDAY WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL BE DRAGGED ACROSS THE AREA BY GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ARE PROGGED TO RETURN ON FRIDAY.

CHILLY HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ARE FORECAST EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY
WHEN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MAY PUSH HIGHS UP TO
AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
CINCINNATI AND COLUMBUS TAF SITES THIS EVENING. IT WOULD NOT BE
OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW FLURRIES AT THE AIRPORTS...BUT IT IS
MORE LIKELY THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED.

AN AREA OF MVFR CLOUDS (AROUND 1500-2500 FEET) IS LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL INDIANA. THESE CLOUDS WILL
MOVE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING...REACHING THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. BY
MORNING...SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED...LEADING TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER MVFR CLOUD DECK EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH GUSTS REACHING AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY FROM SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS




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