Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 171753

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
153 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017

As surface low pressure moves into the Great Lakes, increasing
southerly flow will bring moisture into the Ohio Valley today.
Showers and thunderstorms chances will increase today ahead of a
cold front which moves across the area tonight. Drier and cooler
conditions are expected on Friday, as high pressure moves into
the area.


An extensive cu field has developed across the forecast area and
expect thunderstorm development over the next hour or two. Hi
res models are also supportive of this. In addition there is a
broken line of storms in Indiana and expect these storms to move
into the region as well this afternoon. The main threat with
these storms this afternoon will be damaging winds, however an
isolated tornado or large hail cannot be ruled out. In addition
heavy rain will be possible with the storms as well.
Temperatures have already climbed into the 80s and are expected
to peak in the middle to upper 80s today. Went close to guidance
for high temperatures for today. Winds have also already
started to pick up with wind gusts around 20 to 25 mph expected
through the afternoon and into the evening hours.


Ongoing storms this evening along pre-frontal trof with moderate
instability over the area. Thunderstorms will propagate east
across ILN/s area with a few strong/severe storms possible this
evening. Actual cold front does not move through until late
tonight, so a few showers/thunderstorms could linger until the
passage. Low temperatures to range from the upper 60s northwest
to the lower 70s southeast.

Mid level s/w to pivot from the northern Great Lakes into
southern Canada with westerly flow across the Ohio Valley
Friday. In the post frontal environment surface high pressure to
build east into the region late in the day. This will allow for
decreasing clouds. Temperatures will be cooler and closer to
normal, with highs on Friday in the lower and middle 80s,


Friday night will have dry weather under a ridge of high pressure.
A rather potent short wave traveling across the Great Lakes on
Saturday may trigger a few thunderstorms, mainly in northern
locations. An extensive area of surface high pressure under a
westerly flow aloft will become the dominant weather pattern for
Sunday and Monday. Sunday is expected to be dry, while isolated
thunderstorms may occur in southern counties Monday due to
increasing humidity/instability in the anticyclonic circulation
around the surface high.

For Tuesday, convergence and lift associated with a cold front will
produce a good chance for thunderstorms. Chances diminish Wednesday
in drier air behind the front.

Mainly above normal temperatures will be evident through the period,
with highs reaching the 80s each day.


Thunderstorms will move into the TAF sites this afternoon and
into the early evening hours. Some shower activity will linger
into the first part of the overnight hours. Dry conditions are
then expected for the later part of the overnight hours and into
the day on Friday.

Winds will be gusty this afternoon around 20 to 25 knots. Wind
gusts will diminish tonight, however expect additional wind
gusts during the afternoon hours on Friday.

Although most cigs are expected to be VFR cannot rule out some
isolated MVFR cigs. Vsbys will also be reduced with some of the
thunderstorm activity. Model soundings are indicating MVFR To
IFR cigs developing later in the overnight hours. Some MVFR
vsbys will also be possible during this time. Cu are expected
for the daytime hours on Friday.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible on Saturday.




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