Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 070603
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
203 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MONDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY WHEN A POTENT SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH A
VERY MOIST AIRMASS ALONG THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY. DRIER WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST HRRR AND RUC SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES/MID MS RIVER VLY AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
DWINDLE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR
REGION. AS SUCH...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOW STAY MAINLY DRY
OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/STORM ENCROACHING
THE WESTERN ZONES TOWARD 8 AM. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY
MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH
LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS BLOW OFF FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
DRIVEN BY SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO OHIO
ON MONDAY. IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP. WITH
THE FRONT STALLING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER MONDAY NIGHT AS IT BECOMES
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE QUASI ZONAL UPPER FLOW...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING MAY
REACH SEVERE LIMITS DUE TO RELATIVELY VIGOROUS WIND FIELDS AND
MODERATE INSTABILITIES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WILL BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY CLOUDS AND
PRECIP DURING PEAK HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODELS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH DIGGING LONG WAVE TROF
DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY EARLY IN THE LONG TERM
FCST PERIOD. EMBEDDED S/W TO PASS THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODERATE INSTBY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTN IN THE WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING FRONT. THIS INSTBY COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR WILL LKLY RESULT IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THIS
SIGNAL HAS BEEN PRESENT FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER FOR SEVERAL
RUNS WITH  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING MAIN THREATS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS THREAT IN HWO PRODUCT. WITH CONSISTENT
SIGNAL FROM MODELS WILL BUMP POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL TUESDAY AFTN
INTO TUE EVENING.

THIS SFC FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THRU THE AREA EARLY ON WEDNESDAY.
WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE POPS MAINLY EARLY SOUTH WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING FROM THE NORTH. IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME INDICATION
ON THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLN THAT UNDER INFLUENCE OF MEAN TROF...THERE
COULD BE A FEW POST FRONTAL SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTN...MAINLY ACRS THE
EAST...BUT HAVE KEPT FCST DRY AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW PROBABILITY.
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THURSDAY.

THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY WHILE MID
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AS MINOR MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
IN. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY AND
AND SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING SAT AFTN DUE TO AN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE. BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
OHIO. WILL SPREAD CHANCE POPS ACRS ENTIRE FA SAT NIGHT WITH WARM
FRONT PIVOTING THRU FA. LOW CHANCE POPS TO CONTINUE SUNDAY IN WARM
SECTOR WITH APPROACH OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINE OF CONVECTION RUNNING SW-NE THROUGH CHICAGO WILL WEAKEN IN
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SSW WINDS OVER OHIO VALLEY WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND PROVIDE A MOISTURE FEED AHEAD OF THE LINE OF
STORMS...BUT IN THE OPPOSITE SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM...DISALLOW THE
ORGANIZATION OVER A LARGER SCALE THAT IS NEEDED FOR THE STORMS TO
BECOME STRONG ENOUGH FOR THUNDER. THIS WILL BE OVERCOME DURING THE
LATTER PARTS OF THE MORNING WHEN ADDED INSOLATION PROVIDES ENERGY
TO CREATE A GOOD BIT OF INSTABILITY TO THE REGION.

MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE LINE OF
SHOWERS...BUT THE AXIS OF THE H5 S/W LAYS OUT SOMEWHAT NW OF THE
I-71 CORRIDOR TOWARDS 18Z AND THEN BECOMES MORE SHEARED OUT WHEN
IT MOVES EAST IN THE 18-0Z TIME FRAME. LIMITED THE SHOWERS TO
VICINITY AND PUT A TIME FRAME ON TEMPO THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE TWO
COULD OCCUR AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME AFTER 15Z AND CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24-30 HOURS.

OUTSIDE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH THE
CIGS GENERALLY AROUND 4KFT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS






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