Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 131733

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1233 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2017

Cloudy and cool weather will affect the region today as high
pressure slowly builds in. The center of the high will cross
over the region on Tuesday. A cold front will bring the next
chance for precipitation Wednesday into Wednesday night.


Mid level shortwave over the east Great Lakes will continue to
track off to the east. This leaves the Ohio Valley in temporary
northwest flow. Surface high pressure centered over Illinois to
build east into western Ohio by evening. ILN 12Z sounding shows
low level moisture trapped below an inversion around 880 MB.

Low level flow that corresponds to this moisture layer is from
the north and then turns a little northeast by evening. This is
not favorable for a break up of these clouds. Have trended a
little more pessimistic with the cloud cover and adjusted the
temperatures a little cooler.

High temperatures will remain below normal, only reaching the
lower to mid 40s. This will be about 10 degrees below the


In the weak northwest flow pattern, surface high pressure will
build over the region. The low clouds should break overnight,
but will be replaced by cirrus. Lows will drop to around 30
degrees in the north and the lower to the mid 30s in the south.

The center of the high will pull off to the east on Tuesday.
Easterly flow will not allow for much warm advection, but
some sunshine will allow high temperatures to rise to 45 to
50 degrees.

Tuesday night will remain dry, but clouds will be on the
increase. On Wednesday another cold front will push up the Ohio
Valley bringing showers to the region. Categorical PoPs are
expected by Wednesday afternoon. Highs will range from around 50
in the north to the mid 50s around the Ohio River.


It will be a relatively quick transition through high pressure
on Thursday and the return to southerly flow on Thursday night
into Friday.

The next in the series of storm systems will affect the region
Friday into Friday night. There remains considerable timing
differences. The GFS is the quickest, as it swings a progressive
H5 S/W and cdfnt up the Ohio Valley Friday into Friday night.
The ECMWF and Canadian Hemispheric are slower, as they bring a
complex low pressure system across the Great Lakes Friday night
into Saturday. Trended the forecast towards the slower
ECMWF/Canadian solution. Upped PoPs Friday night to likely to

Behind this system, the weekend looks drier in a persistent cold
advection pattern.


Although surface high pressure over IL will build east into the
region by evening, clouds will continue through the day.
Moisture trapped below a low level inversion will cause the
clouds to linger but improve to MVFR category this afternoon.

The high will build into Ohio overnight but the low clouds in
the MVFR category should persist through most of the night. A
good deal of uncertainty exists regarding these low cloud
trends. Have slowed the clearing of the low clouds to between
09Z and 13Z. Where these clouds do scatter out some fog will be
possible. For now have limited the vsby restriction due to fog
to MVFR due to high level cloudiness.

Expect any fog to improve early Tuesday with VFR conditions
through the remainder of the day.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities possible
Wednesday and again Friday.




LONG TERM...Hatzos
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