Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 141739
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
139 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO MONDAY. AFTER A COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN
LATE MONDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE
DRY WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE...AND ITS INFLUENCE EXTENDS THROUGH
THE ENTIRE OHIO VALLEY. A VERY DRY AIR MASS IS IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION...BUT THERE ARE STILL A FEW STREAKS OF CIRRUS PASSING
THROUGH...AND A FEW AREAS OF STRATOCUMULUS. AIDED BY WEAK WARM
ADVECTION...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA (ESPECIALLY CENTRAL OHIO) THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THOUGH THESE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN EXPANDING IN THE PAST
COUPLE HOURS...RAP MODEL RH FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT THIS TREND WILL
REVERSE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS.

BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND THE LATEST HIGH-RES MODEL RUNS...MAX
TEMPS WERE INCREASED BY A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE CWA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND WILL
PROVIDE A DRY DAY. AREA OF CI STREAMING UP THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE
WLY FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION MAINLY THIS MORNING. CAA ALOFT
WILL BRING SOME CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON MOSTLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES. OVERALL THE SKY SHOULD BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY.

LATEST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THAT TODAY MIGHT BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. KNOCKED HIGHS DOWN TO THE
MID 60S IN THE NORTH AND AROUND 70 NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE HIGH HOLDS ON
FOR ONE MORE PERIOD. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO H5 S/W AND SFC FRONT DIGGING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM INTO THE NW COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON. BEST UPPER
LEVEL PVA AND SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. WILL KEEP THE BEST POPS IN THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY SEE DIMINISHED CHANCES LATER MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE SYSTEM SCOOTS EAST. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FOR MONDAY AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S
IN THE NORTH AND THE MID 70S IN NRN KY. THE WARM UP WILL ONLY BE
TEMPORARY AS COOLER AIR WILL WORK BACK IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
HIGHS BACK DOWN TO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NW FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...OFFERING COOL
AND DRY WEATHER THRU MID WEEK.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT LOOKS TO WASH OUT AS IT PUSHES TOWARD
OUR AREA. A SECOND LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN
WILL BUILD SE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

SOME MODIFICATION IN FORM OF A SLIGHT WARM UP WILL BEGIN FRIDAY WHEN
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

HAVE CHC POPS SAT NIGHT WITH S/W AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
DROPPING THRU THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR MOST
OF THE TAF SITES. DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...LEADING TO GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WIND FLOW...THOUGH GENERALLY WITH AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT...WILL ALSO DIMINISH BY EVENING. ANOTHER NIGHT
OF CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO FOG AT KLUK...WITH
IFR IN THE FORECAST...AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDITIONS.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP ON MONDAY...THOUGH STILL GENERALLY
REMAINING BELOW 10 KNOTS. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE...THOUGH IT IS NOT LIKELY TO BE PARTICULARLY THICK. AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL OCCUR AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD (AND
ESPECIALLY HEADING TOWARD 00Z)...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY FOR DAYTON AND COLUMBUS.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS





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