Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 301523
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1123 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT WILL PUSH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WHEN A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO OHIO. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL WORK
IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TODAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN MOIST ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LLJ
WILL PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE WARM FRONT COMES CLOSE
TO OUR SOUTHWEST CWFA...SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. RAIN TODAY WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH A QUARTER TO
HALF INCH EXPECTED. SPC SWODY1 HAS OUR FAR SRN/SWRN CWFA IN
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH JUST A SMALL PORTION IN THE
FAR SWRN COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY MAY WORK INTO OUR SOUTHWEST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING TO PRODUCE THE THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS. IF ANYTHING...WITH MOIST LOW
LEVELS...I.E...LOW LCLS...IT MAY BE ONE OF THOSE INSTANCES THAT
ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES ARE LOW (2 PERCENT PER
SPC)...ANY ROTATING SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED DUE TO HIGHER LEVELS OF HELICITY AND LOW
LCLS FOR AN ISOLATED SPIN UP. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MUTED TODAY GIVEN RAIN AND CLOUDS...BUT WILL SHOW SOME
WARMING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE RIVER...WHERE THE WARM FRONT
NEARS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE WRMFNT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS...INCLUDING
CAMS...DIFFER ON THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONTAL ZONE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. PWATS INCREASE TO 1.50 INCHES...WHICH
IS BEYOND THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR PWAT VALUES BASED ON ILN SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY. ALSO...ANOTHER KEY WILL BE HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS TODAY
THIS EVENING BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND HOW IT AFFECTS
FFG VALUES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE CONSIDERED...DEPENDING ON
WHERE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR AND HOW
WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THIS WITH THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF NOW...LOCATIONS ACRS OUR SRN CWFA
HAVE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

CHANCES OF PCPN SHOULD DECREASE LATE TONIGHT AS FA BECOMES WARM
SECTORED. TEMPERATURES WONT FALL TOO MUCH TONIGHT...ONLY FALLING
BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO TO THE UPPER 50S
AROUND THE OHIO RIVER.

ON SUNDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN EJECTING
UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...A SFC LOW WILL
PUSH INTO OHIO. THERE IS A WIDE RANGE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR
SUNDAY...BUT SEVERAL MODELS ARE TRYING TO POINT TO A DRY
MORNING...BEFORE AFTERNOON HEATING KICKS OFF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE
MORNING...SINCE THE FA IS IN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE
IS UNSTABLE. INCREASED THE POPS TO THEIR HIGHEST DURING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR EAST.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S...EXCEPT TO THE
NW PORTIONS OF THE FA...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT IN DROPPING ENERGY OUT OF CANADA AND CUTTING A H5
LOW OFF OVER THE LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. INCREASED POPS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A CDFNT
CROSSES THE AREA. WITH THE UPPER LOW CUT OFF OVER THE REGION FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK...CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS LOW...SO LEFT THE
PREVIOUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

AFTER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL COOL OFF TO AROUND 60 FOR THE LATER HALF
OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EASTERLY FLOW HAS PUSHED SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CLOUDS BACK INTO
CMH/LCK AREA. THIS SHOULD DECREASE BY MID MORNING WHILE
APPROACHING LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST RETURNS MOISTURE. VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE WEST SHOULD BECOME MVFR LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH RAIN AND FOG REDUCING VSBYS AND CIGS LOWERING. SOME
IFR MAY DEVELOP FOR A TIME EARLY EVENING BUT SHOULD RETURN TO MVFR
OVERNIGHT WITH MIXING AND DRYING AS STEADIER RAIN PUSHES EAST.
WILL BE A LULL IN RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS PERSISTING. HAVE LEFT OUT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
FOR NOW BUT SCATTERED THUNDER COULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING NEAR OHIO
RIVER IN BETTER INSTABILITY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/SITES
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/SITES
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN/SITES
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...PADGETT



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