Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 271802
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
202 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...LEADING
TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE REMOVED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS AFTERNOON. JUST COULD NOT
IN GOOD CONSCIENCE CONTINUE A WATCH WHERE THE WORST THAT WOULD
HAPPEN WOULD BE ISOLATED NUISANCE FLOODING DUE TO MORE PROGRESSIVE
THUNDERSTORMS.

SPC BASED TOR WATCH ISSUANCE BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF SUN HITTING
THE OPEN SPACES OUTSIDE OF THE STRATUS DECKS THAT ARE AROUND...A
STILL DECENTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY EXPECTED LATER TODAY. I WAS
OF A MIND THAT THE STRATUS OVER THE IN/OH BORDER WOULD KEEP MOVING
EAST AND LIMIT HEATING...EFFECTIVELY SQUASHING ANY DEEP CONVECTION
IN THE HERE AND NOW. MODELS WERE NOT PUTTING MUCH PRECIPITATION ON
THE BACK EDGE OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. INITIALLY HAD
ADJUSTED POPS AND SEVERITY DOWNWARD BUT THEN RAMPED THEM BACK UP
WITH WATCH ISSUANCE. EASTERN CWA SOUTH OF COLUMBUS MAY GO EARLY
AND SUPPORT A LARGE THUNDERSTORM BUT THIS HAS TO START RELATIVELY
QUICKLY BEFORE THE UPSTREAM STRATUS CUTS OFF ANY LIFT IN THE
LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD AND THEN BLENDED THEM TOWARDS
EXPECTED VALUES TOWARDS 0Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST BY
EARLY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS DOWN THROUGH THE
REGION. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...LEADING TO SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DIURNAL SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT.

A BROAD/DEEP TROUGH WILL THEN REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON
INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME WEAK IMPULSES POSSIBLY
DROPPING DOWN TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS BUT CHANCE APPEARS LOW ENOUGH
TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND HIGHS ON
TUESDAY AGAIN ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE H5 ENERGY SWINGS INTO THE ERN US TROF ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NRN HALF
OF THE CWA.

AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS IN THE UPPER TROF...MODELS CUT OFF THE
LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT KCVG THROUGH THE MID MORNING
AS A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GUST UP TO 25 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT
OUT OF THE WEST BY THIS EVENING AND WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KT.
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK







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