Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 262004
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
404 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY. AS THE HIGH EXITS TO THE EAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET
UP FOR FRIDAY AND BRING A RETURN TO HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING BUT
WILL BE MORE LIMITED TO THE NORTHWEST WHERE A LINE OF CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT BUTTS INTO THE ESTABLISHED HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CWA. THE FOCUS OF THESE STORMS WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST AND OUT OF CWA...BUT THE LINGERING COLD FRONT SHOULD
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S IN MOST
AREAS.

SHOWERS APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OVER NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT
BUT THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH DAYBREAK AND
AFFECT ALL BUT FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA WITH AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY IS IN A
RELATIVELY RECEPTIVE YET NOT OVERLY SUPPORTIVE ATMOSPHERE. I
EXPECT THAT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
E-SE AS THE HIGH BUILDS AND WINDS SHIFT NW TO N. SOME AFTERNOON
RE-DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PERCOLATE SOUTHERN CWA
TOWARDS A CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE.

ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TOMORROW WILL MOVE SOUTH AND REMAIN OUT OF
OHIO THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS AS THE HIGH NORTH OF
THE AREA MOVES EAST WILL INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH A DRYING
LOWER ATMOSPHERE.

WHILE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY ARE MARGINAL...THEY ARE
SQUARELY FOCUSED OVER KENTUCKY WITH THE HIGH PUSHING THE FOCUS
SOUTHWARD. WHILE I BELIEVE THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL NOT
BRING ANY THREAT FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...I COULD NOT
RULE OUT SOMETHING WORKING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA AND KEPT
AN ISOLATED POP IN OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS
OVERNIGHT. ONE EXCEPTION IS OVER KY AND W OF METRO CINCY WHERE
UPPER 60S WILL HOLD TOUGH WITH THE MORE MOIST AIR DOES NOT GET
BOOTED OUT BY THE HIGH PRESSURE.

DO NOT THINK THAT LOWER 90S AND SOMEWHAT HIGH HUMIDITY OVER METRO
CINCY AND SOUTHERN CWA MERITS ANY HAZARDS IN THE OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...CMC...AND GFS THROUGH SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...HAVE SIDED WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION FOR MAIN MID
LEVEL TROUGH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND PER A GFS/CMC BLEND.

FORMER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HEAD SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT DUE TO MID LEVEL RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM FROM A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HAVE
KEPT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
BOUNDARY.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH AND EMBEDDED S/WV ENERGY
WILL SHEAR SOME AS THEY HEAD NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. INCREASING MOISTURE WITH GENERALLY WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING
WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY CONTINUES TO
PIVOT AND SHEAR AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST AS IT
BECOMES PARALLEL TO MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. PCPN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY.

ELONGATED MID LEVEL RIDGE MAY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY...EXTENDING
FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND POINTS TO THE
SOUTH FROM EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEE. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS GOING WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE BEING MOST
FAVORED.

SUMMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH A LITTLE BIT OF A COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PCPN. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS WARM/MOIST AIR CIRCULATES AROUND ELONGATED
MID LEVEL RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
H5 RIDGE WILL FATTEN SOME DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS S/W SWINGS
FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES. A CDFNT WILL SAG DOWN
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. MAJORITY OF THE SYNOPTIC MODELS BRING SOME
CONVECTION DOWN THROUGH THE TAFS WITH FROPA. THE FINER RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE LESS AMBITIOUS WITH THE STORMS HOWEVER. CARRIED A VCTS
AT THE TAFS TO COVER THE THREAT. BEGAN THE VCTS AT DAY AROUND
03Z...THEN FINALLY AT CVG/LUK BY 08Z.

BY 12Z THE FRONT SHOULD BE IN SRN OHIO. ENDED THE VCTS MENTION AT
THE NRN TAFS ABOUT THIS TIME. WITH THE FRONT HANGING AROUND THE
SRN TAFS AND THE MODELS PRODUCING PLENTY OF CAPE ON
WEDNESDAY...KEPT THE VCTS GOING THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES







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