Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 182017
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
417 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS. SKIES WILL CLEAR
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FROST OVERNIGHT IN SOME LOCATIONS. A DRY AND COOL
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HAVE RAISED PRECIP CHANCES THIS EVENING WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPR TROUGH AND A GOOD FETCH OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH NEAR/JUST AFTER 00Z AS THE
VORT MAX HEADS SOUTH AND WITH RELAXING OF THE NW FLOW. CLEARING
NOW NEARLY INTO ILLINOIS AND STILL EXPECTING WINDS TO FALL OFF
AFTER 06Z WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE...WTH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FROST/LOW 30S IN THE NW FCST AREA. CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR WHERE CLEARING AND DIMINISHING
WINDS WILL COME LATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AMPLE SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WITH JUST SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS AHEAD OF
NEXT APPROACHING S/WV FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH THE NW
FLOW EARLY BACKING A BIT AND CAA BECOMING MORE NEUTRAL...TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S STILL LOOKS GOOD BUT RAISED SLIGHTLY IN THE SW
WHERE SOME LATE DAY WAA MAY BUMP TEMPS INTO THE UPR 50S.

MORE MODERATE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE NEXT S/WV TO DROP DOWN FROM CNTRL
LOWER CANADA THROUGH WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BEST MOISTURE REMAINS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FCST AREA SO HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HERE. HAVE RAISED PRECIP CHANCES SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...THEN FAIRLY SLOW DEPARTURE WITH THE INCREASINGLY
AMPLIFIED UPR LEVEL PATTERN LINGERING THE UPR TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW WITH A SHARP RIDGE OVER THE
NATIONS MID SECTION AND A TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MEAN TROF WILL PROVIDE A
CONTD CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE EAST.
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF TO OUR EAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AT MID WEEK, WILL END
ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION EARLY WEDNESDAY. IN NORTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THIS UPPER LOW...SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THRU THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE WED/THUR...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S. SOME
MODERATION TO TAKE PLACE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO MIDDLE 60S SOUTH.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CEILINGS OVER THE REGION HAVE BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 2000-4000
FEET...BUT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A SWITCH TO
PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD BE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. AS THIS IS HAPPENING...AN AREA OF RAIN OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE TAF SITES. AS THIS
RAIN NOW APPEARS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AIRPORTS...PREVAILING
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. VISIBILITIES IN THE RAIN
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN VFR...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY GUSTY...BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THEY TURN TO THE WEST.

AFTER THE RAIN MOVES OUT...CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE TO DROP AS NIGHT
FALLS...THOUGH GENERALLY NO LOWER THAN 1500 FEET. ONE CHALLENGE
FOR THE FORECAST IS DETERMINING WHEN THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE.
THE NEW TAFS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC...KEEPING CEILINGS IN
PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS SOMEWHAT OF A
CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS COULD LAST INTO THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...ONCE CLEARING OCCURS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>072-077-080.
KY...NONE.
IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ050-058-
     059-066-073-074.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS






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