Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KILN 070226
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
926 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY OFF TO THE
EAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AND
USHER IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SOME CIRRUS WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD PICK UP A BIT MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATER AS
WELL. BUT UNTIL THEN THERE WILL BE FAIRLY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. THUS EXPECT COLDEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. HAVE BUMPED
DOWN TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT GIVEN LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT
TERM MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL START IN SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING AHEAD OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT TRAPPED IN A STATIC
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BETWEEN THIS AND A SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL STATES.

THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW COMING SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL OVERSHADOW THE EAST COAST SYSTEM WHICH WILL EXIT EAST AND
AWAY THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT SUNDAY.

AN INITIAL SHOT OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING AS THE WARM AIR
BEING PULLED INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL GET WRUNG OUT
ALONG A CONVERGENT SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH THE ADDED KICK OF A
NEGATIVELY TILTING S/W ROTATING THROUGH OHIO VALLEY AROUND THE
MEAN UPPER LOW TROUGH. THE TRUE COLD AIR DOES NOT PUSH THROUGH
UNTIL LATER MONDAY WHEN ANOTHER S/W HELPS SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST
AND USHER IN THE COLDER AIRMASS.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE TEMPERATURE ALOFT WILL PUT A MIX OF
PRECIP TYPES IN THE OFFING FOR THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST NIGHTFALL
MONDAY. SOUTHEASTERN CWA WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN MORE THAN ANY OTHER
PTYPE WITH NORTHWESTERN CWA GETTING A BETTER CHANCE OF PLAIN SNOW
LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. MUCH OF THE CWA WILL SEE A WINTRY
MIX AT TIMES DURING THE DAY MONDAY...EVEN IN THE NORTHWEST. THIS
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE LATE DAY AND EARLY EVENING AS COLD
AIR RUSHES IN. ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE BEING ADVERTISED
AS 2-3 INCHES BUT THIS IS A 3 DAY TOTAL AND LIKELY WILL NOT
ACCURATELY DEPICT THE MELTING THAT OCCURS DURING THE MIXED PRECIP
ON SUN AND MON. BY LATER MONDAY EVENING THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A
CHANCE OF ANYTHING EXCEPT SNOW. MODELS ARE STINGY ON PUTTING A LOT
OF QPF IN THE FORECAST AND THIS CUTS DOWN ON SNOW TOTALS...BUT
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SNOW FLYING THROUGH MID WEEK IN MOST
LOCATIONS DUE TO SHOWERS OCCURRING IN THE REINFORCING COLD PUSHES
THAT ARE EXPECTED UNDERNEATH A LARGE UPPER LOW.

MONDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE MID 30S MOST
LOCATIONS...NEAR 40 IN THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY. COLD AIR MAY COME
IN A BIT QUICKER OR THERE MAY BE A LARGER COOLING EFFECT FROM THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR EARLY ON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE A H5 LOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. STRONG NW CAA FLOW AT H8 WILL CAUSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TUESDAY...SO UPPED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY. TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE H5 LOW BEGINS TO PINWHEEL OUT TO THE EAST
AND FILL. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OFF THE LAKES
HOWEVER...CAUSING SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER. STARTED TUESDAY NIGHT
OFF WITH LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS AND GRADUALLY ALLOWED POPS TO LOWER
THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE. THE
GFS IS THE OUTLIER AS IT RUNS SOME H5 ENERGY SE ACROSS THE
REGION...PRODUCING A STREAK OF SNOW THROUGH NRN KY. WILL HOLD OFF
MENTIONING ANY SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE FOR NOW BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON IT.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK MORE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF CANADA...PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS BRINGS CAA FLOW OFF THE LAKES
AGAIN AND COULD BRING SOME FLURRIES. FOR SATURDAY MODELS ARE
DIFFERING ON THEIR PLACEMENT OF THE SFC HIGH...WHICH WOULD AFFECT
THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. LEFT SATURDAY DRY FOR
NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE LIMITED BY THE SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AND ARE
FORECAST IN THE UPPER 20S. LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE TEENS
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 20S ON
WEDNESDAY. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 10-
15...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO THE MID 20S. FRIDAY COULD BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS HIGHS GET UP TO EITHER SIDE OF 30
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...DROPPING TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE
INCREASING HIGH AND EVENTUALLY MID CLOUDS SUNDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. MVFR
CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.