Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 141801
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
101 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL LEAD TO CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO MILD
TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA FOR TODAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER
GENERALLY EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES. WENT CLOSER TO THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. NOT REALLY SEEING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF DRIZZLE ACTIVITY AND MODELS HAVE BEEN LESS INDICATIVE
OF DRIZZLE TODAY AND THEREFORE LEFT ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT
OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO BACK WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEN INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY. THINK THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HANG IN THROUGH TONIGHT
BUT THEY SHOULD EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY GIVEN THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW/WAA.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY
AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY AS IT PHASES WITH SOME
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. A LEAD
SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED 925-850 MB
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY MOVING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT HOLDING OFF THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR PCPN WITH THIS UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. WILL TRY TO KEEP
MOST OF THE DAY ON MONDAY DRY WITH JUST SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS
WORKING INTO THE WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN HAVE LIKELY
POPS OVERSPREADING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. CHANCE POPS WILL THEN
LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S..DROPPING ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MONDAY NIGHT. WE
COULD SEE A BIT OF A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND FOR TUESDAY
WITH SOME EARLY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...AND THEN LEVELING
OFF OR SLOWLY DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY AS CAA BEGINS TO DEVELOP
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ZONAL H5 FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. FOR FRIDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF EJECT SOME SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THEIR SOLUTIONS SO CONFIDENCE ON
P-TYPE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IS LOW AT THE TIME. LEANED
MORE TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION FOR NOW...WHICH BRINGS MAINLY
SNOW TO THE NW...A MIX AROUND I-71 AND ALL RAIN THE S/SE. I`M SURE
THINGS WILL CHANGE BEFORE THE MODELS LOCK ONTO THE PROPER
SOLUTION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...RANGING FROM 35 TO 40 DEGREES. WITH THE STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING...THE TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MIGHT WARM
A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS CAN GENERALLY BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THE LONGER KCVG TAF WHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR AGAIN THE LONGER KCVG
TAF WHERE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK





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