Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 201323
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
923 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL THEN DRAW INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY
INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ALTHOUGH VISIBILITIES ARE IMPROVING ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
9 AM...PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES A QUARTER MILE OR LESS
REMAINS AT ABOUT 20 PERCENT OF OUR OBSERVATION SITES. THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9 AM...WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT ONGOING WHICH SHOULD COVER ANY REMAINING FOGGY
LOCATIONS THROUGH 10 AM. AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
HAVE IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES RISING SLOWLY INTO THE LOWER 70S THROUGH MIDDAY. AFTER
THAT...SOME GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD ACCELERATE
WARMING THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 80S
AT MOST OF OUT ZONES.

LIGHT RAIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE SCIOTO VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING. MODELS
DISSIPATE THIS PRECIPITATION BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BEYOND
THAT...ONCE THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF 76 IS REACHED DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT A DIURNAL TREND TO THE CONVECTION TODAY WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. LOWS WILL BE
MILD TONIGHT IN THE WARM AIRMASS WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S
WEST TO THE MIDDLE 60S EAST.

NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW UPR/MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE UPR MS
VLY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS PLACES ILN/S FA AROUND THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO HIGHS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY WITH READINGS IN THE MID/UPR 80S. WILL
LIMIT POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY IN THE FAR EAST.

THE UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO EXTEND EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY
TUESDAY WITH THE WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM UPR TO HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEVELOPING TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY WITH A COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TAF SITES ARE EXPERIENCING A HUMID AIRMASS AND WEAK WIND FLOW
UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. FOG THAT HAS REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO
VLIFR WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER TAF ISSUANCE. EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS TO DEVELOP ONCE FOG DISSIPATES. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY FORM
NEAR CMH AND LCK THIS AFTERNOON WHEN A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
MAY ENHANCE INSTABILITY. CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT DEEPER
CONVECTION FROM OCCURRING. BR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN THE HUMID
AIRMASS AGAIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO





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