Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 212030
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
430 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL WORK THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. FOG CONCERNS ARE NOT AS
HIGH AS THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS HOWEVER THERE IS STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA. IN
ADDITION RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FA ON TUESDAY. THERE
WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS
THE FA. HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OR SO OF
THE FA ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S. HIGHLIGHTED THESE
VALUES IN THE HWO. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WORK INTO THE FA. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE AND BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA. DUE TO THIS HAVE INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. STRONG STORM CHANCES ARE LESS ACROSS
NW PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE THE FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA
EARLIER IN THE DAY. DUE TO THIS DO NOT HAVE STRONG STORM MENTION
IN THE HWO ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA. PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
ON THURSDAY MORNING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER
MOTION THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...IT NOW APPEARS THAT MOST OF
THURSDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH SOME REMAINING SHOWERS (AND LITTLE
INSTABILITY) MOVING OUT OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AS THE HIGH MOVES THROUGH...WITH PLENTIFUL INSOLATION
EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM SLIGHTLY EACH DAY.

A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL PLACE THE OHIO VALLEY IN A
REGIME OF NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY INCREASING THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH ON BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF COMING
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH MAY
ACT TO FOCUS SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THESE CHANCES MAY
INCREASE FURTHER HEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...AS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING BEGINS TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF WITH GREATER
AMPLITUDE OVER A LARGER EXPANSE OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. IT
CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE THE TIMING OF ALL OF THESE FEATURES REMAINS A
BIT UNCERTAIN IN THE MODELS...WITH DIURNAL CONVECTIVE TRENDS ALSO
EXPECTED TO PLAY A ROLE. POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN THE 20-30 PERCENT
RANGE. WITH CLOUDIER AND MORE MOIST CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM THE
WEEKEND ONWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY MODERATE SOMEWHAT AFTER
PEAKING NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL VALUES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT TO BKN VFR CU WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING NEAR KLCK/KCMH. OTHERWISE...TERMINALS WILL STAY DRY
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH A WARMER AIRMASS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...MVFR
VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS BEFORE SUNRISE WITH IFR
VSBYS LIKELY AT KLUK LATE TONIGHT. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF A COUPLE
OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...CONIGLIO






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