Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
FXUS61 KILN 262015
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
415 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016
High pressure over the southeast United States will result in
continued southwesterly flow across the upper Ohio Valley through
the holiday weekend. This will lead to seasonably warm
temperatures and the chance for a few showers or thunderstorms at
times into early next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A line of showers is showing a strong propensity for
weakening/dissipating over the northern half of CWA and a
continued marginal threat for gusty winds to 30-35 mph and heavy
rainfall for all of northern Kentucky east of the I-75 corridor
and southern Ohio from Cincinnati eastward to Chillicothe and
then down to the Ohio River.
The line will weaken as it moves east even in the area where it
will persist until early evening, exiting the southeastern portion
of the CWA and Vanceburg/Portsmouth/Waverly area by around 7 pm.
The threat for more showers and storms wanes significantly
overnight but I am not confident enough in this southerly flow
regime to say that there is not a possibility of popup storms to
make another appearance later overnight. With this in mind, have
put a low chance before daybreak for the western third of CWA.
Overnight lows will bottom out in the mid 60s for most locations.
If a thunderstorm develops over any one area, readings will
bottom out several degrees cooler - locally.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The pattern remains as previously stated and there were not any
significant areas to touch on to make any noteworthy changes.
Southerly flow will continue and mid-atmospheric impulses will
combine with the heating of the day to have an increased threat
for storms in the afternoon. Cannot rule out that these
disturbances continue a storm into the evening or overnight hours.
Models are not able to determine the state of the atmosphere in a
mesoscale fashion at this time tomorrow (at least with enough run
to run/model to model consistency to me). This leads to a
necessary fuzziness to the forecast with generic slight chance to
chance of storms through the period, maximized with the peak
daytime heating and diminishing overnight.
Temperatures will also be similar through the weekend with highs
topping out in the mid 80s and overnight lows bottoming out in the
mid 60s. A few spots may top out in the upper 80s tomorrow given
enough sunny breaks. A little more cloud cover on Saturday should
inhibit runaway temperatures on this day.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The extended period begins with a H5 S/W lifting out of the upper
MS valley into the wrn Great Lakes. At the sfc, the region remains
under the same moist, unstable summer like atmosphere, so expect
diurnal convection to pop up again on Sunday.
Late Sunday night into Monday as weak front or sfc boundary works
into the region, which will slowly suppress the chance of convection
south of the region. By Monday evening...sfc ridging has built down
thru the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley...bringing stable air at
the sfc and aloft. This should bring dry conditions to the region
By Wednesday, the remains of the weak tropical system that moved
thru the se U.S. may bring added moisture to the region along with
the return of scattered thunderstorms. For Thursday, the models are
currently in agreement in pushing a front through the region. This
should bring a more organized chance of thunderstorms.
Highs Sunday and Monday will remain in the lower to mid 80s. Tuesday
will only be a tad cooler before Wednesday sees highs back to the
lower to mid 80s. Lows should remain in the lower to mid 60s.
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Initial focus this afternoon will be watching a weakening
mesoscale convective system pushing into our region.
Mosaic radar continues to show a weakening trend to the
convection just now approaching the western periphery of our
western terminals. Given a little bit better instability near the
kcvg/kluk terminals, have included a TEMPO group for some mvfr
tsra between 19Z and 21Z. Probabilities become a little more
problematic heading farther north and east as the system continues
to move into a less favorable environment. Thus, will only employ
a VCTS/CB at KDAY/KILN and nothing for KCMH/KLCK based on the
premise the feature will continue to weaken as it heads east. The
feature should be out of our area by this evening.
For tonight...we should see a mix of clouds with vfr ceilings
expected. Some river fog may form near KLUK and have placed some
MVFR visibilities there. Will wait for another forecast iteration
before considering IFR conditions.
On Friday...it looks like mid level ridge to our east will try to
poke/build a little farther west. We should see some bkn cumulus
during the afternoon with a pop up shower/storm possible in the
heat of the day.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday through Monday.