Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KILN 242015
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
415 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Several rounds of upper level energy will work across the Ohio
Valley tonight into Thursday. This energy combined with a warm and
moist airmass will bring the chance for thunderstorms. High
pressure will bring drier conditions for Friday and Saturday,
before precipitation chances return for Sunday and into the new
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Storms moving across Indiana will track into the northwest portion
of the forecast area late this afternoon. We are finally seeing
some southward development into southern Indiana per the high-res
models.

Went with the likely pops in the northwest corner of the fa,
tapering down to chance and slight chance the further south and
east. Expect convection to weaken and become isolated in nature
as the night progresses.

Temperatures tonight will remain very warm with lows in the lower
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
On Thursday, another H5 S/W will work across nrn IN into nw OH
along the nrn edge of the upper ridge. In the meantime a cdfnt
will be dropping southeast towards the region from the wrn lakes.
The best chance of convection will be across that nrn IN into nw
OH during the aftn, but there will be a chance that the storms
could develop into the nrn portions of the fa. It looks like
Thursday will be a hot and humid day with highs ranging from the
upper 80s in the north to the lower 90s along the Ohio River. With
dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s, the heat index will reach 95 to
100 degrees, so added a mention to the HWO.

Convergence along the front becomes diffuse quickly Thursday
night, so pcpn chances come to an end quickly. Low temperatures
Thursday night will be slightly lower, ranging from the upper 60s
to lower 70s.


High pressure will bring a slightly drier air mass for Friday and
Friday night. Continued with the dry forecast. Highs on from will
be in the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will exit the region Saturday and surface easterly
flow will turn southerly. Cloud cover from convection in the midwest
spill into the Ohio Valley. A surface boundary is expected to lay
out over the region early Sunday as high pressure builds in the
Upper Midwest. This should just provide a modest increase in diurnal
thunderstorm activity chances Sunday with a little more increase on
Monday, both with subsequent nighttime drops in these chances.

Northeast flow on Monday into Tuesday night is expected as the high
traverses the Great Lakes region. Another repeat of increased
chances of afternoon thunderstorms is expected Tuesday and Wednesday
given what will become a nebulous surface pattern.

While all of the potential precipitation may not contain thunder,
have not tried to minimize the morning and evening chances by
calling them showers, even though this may be how the pattern
materializes. Just peppered any precip chances in the extended as
thunderstorms.

With a large and slow moving high in the upper atmosphere centered
from the Central Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic coast, and with
mainly warm advection in the lower levels, a return to mid-summer
heat is indicated. High temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to the
low 90s will couple with dew points near 70 to make increasingly
uncomfortable air to the region. Some lower 80s temperatures may be
expected in areas where precip develops and skies remain cloudy all
day.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Storms moving across Indiana will continue east into the area this
afternoon. Expect this to impact KDAY. But there is some
uncertainty whether additional storms will build further into the
Cincinnati area. Also expect convection to weaken heading into the
evening which puts the potential for storms in Columbus a bit more
uncertain. So have continued with a three hour window of VCTS at
terminals other than KDAY. There is some possibility that storms
could happen a bit later than timing in TAFs. Once storms pass
expect VFR to continue. Cannot completely rule out some mist/fog
at KLUK. But at this time probability seems low. Few to scattered
cumulus will occur late in the TAF period with winds veering to
the southwest.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday afternoon and evening.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hatzos/Sites
NEAR TERM...Sites
SHORT TERM...Sites
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.