Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

148
FXUS61 KILN 111501
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1001 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD POOL OF AIR ALONG WITH MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
WILL DEVELOP DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RIVER...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH. WILL
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF FLURRIES NORTH IN THE MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DUE TO THE SHALLOW INSTABILITY OF THE CLOUDS LOCATED
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. HIGHS WILL BE COLD...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ALLOWING FOR WEAKENING WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUD SKIES. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES SOUTH NEAR
THE HUDSON BAY FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
ALSO HEAD SOUTHEAST AROUND THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW TOWARDS THE
TRI-STATE PUSHING WEAK PVA OVER THE AREA. THE NAM SHOWED SOME
LIGHT QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM YESTERDAY WHILE THE GFS AND EURO WHERE
DRY. THE EURO AND GFS ARE NOW SHOWING QPF LIKE THE NAM SOLUTION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THE GFS ALSO LOOK BETTER THIS MORNING
SHOWING SATURATION UP TO AROUND 400 MB THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. PWATS ARE ALSO FORECASTED TO BE AROUND 0.30" VIA THE
NAM AND GFS. THE NAM IS A TAD FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHTLY MORE
ROBUST WITH THE SYSTEM. HAVE RAISED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH
ALL SNOW FORECASTED FOR THIS SYSTEM.

AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST THE POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL DIP SOUTH PUSHING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR WIND CHILLS OF -5
TO -15 DEGREES F. WIND CHILLS OF -10 OR COLDER WILL MAINLY BE
CONFINED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THESE VALUES WOULD SUPPORT A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY.

DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND -22 DEGREES C.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TEENS FOR SATURDAY. SUNDAY
MORNING WILL AGAIN BE COLD WITH SOME SPOTS POSSIBLY DIPPING BELOW
ZERO (ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES). CLOUDS WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST THOUGH WHICH COULD INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AREA WILL BE UNDER A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS IN A
SHALLOW LAYER OF DECREASING MOISTURE. FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND
A COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE ILN AREA.

A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A LARGE SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THOUGH THERE WILL BE WARM
ADVECTION...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY...SOME RESIDUAL RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT MAINLY EASTERN COUNTIES. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP
ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT VERY COLD SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS. SLIGHT MODERATION TO THE LOW 20S IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD BRING READINGS INTO THE 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE NEAR NORMAL 40 ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME VFR LAKE INDUCED SC CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO DRIFT DOWN
ACROSS PARTS OF OUR NORTHERN AREA...WHILE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THIS TREND THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER LATER
THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SOME SCT-BKN MVFR SC DEVELOPMENT AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW FLURRIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT EXPECT
ANY IMPACT ON THE TAF SITES TO BE MINIMAL.

THE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE AWAY HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO BACK. THIS IS AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE END OF THE KCVG TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...JGL



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.