Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 150225

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1025 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017

A cold front will push east across the region through the day
on Sunday, leading to a chance of showers, isolated
thunderstorms and breezy conditions. A drier and cooler airmass
will then settle into the area through the first part of the
work week.


Progressive mid level shortwave to eject northeast from the
the northern plains across the Great Lakes Sunday. Surface low
over the upper MS Vly to deepen as it tracks northeast across
the Great Lakes Sunday. Associated Strong surface cold front to
sweep east across ILN/s FA Sunday. Clouds will increase
overnight in advance of this cold front.

As the pressure gradient begins to tighten, southeast to south winds
will begin to begin to pick up late tonight. Temperatures will
from near 60 in the far east to the mid/upper 60s northwest.
These readings will steady out late and possibly even slowly
rise as clouds and winds increase.


Mid level short wave energy will move out of the mid Mississippi
Valley across the Ohio Valley through the day on Sunday. This
will help push a cold front east across our area through early
afternoon. Deeper moisture is somewhat limited and the models
are in decent agreement that the instability will remain pretty
marginal along and ahead of the front through the day. As a
result, will continue to just go with likely showers with a
slight chance of some embedded thunderstorms along/just ahead
of the front. The wind fields are fairly strong so if we are
able to destabilize enough, suppose a very low end severe threat
would not be out of the question across our far east. As the
cold front moves through and we start to get into some CAA,
expect to see some non diurnal temperatures, especially across
the east where the highs should occur fairly early in the day.
A tightening pressure gradient will also lead to breezy
conditions through the day with wind gusts in the 30-40 mph
range possible. A drier and cooler airmass will then filter
into the area behind the front Sunday night. Lows Sunday night
will be in the low to mid 40s.


For Monday, a cold front pushed by an upper trough will be east
of the area. An expansive area of high pressure following the
front will stretch across most of the CONUS under a confluent
zonal flow aloft. High pressure and a dry airmass are then
forecast to remain over the region through the end of the long
term. Current model projections suggest no precipitation in a
regime of subsidence and low humidity, with rain chances close
to zero through Saturday.

Temperatures will be below normal to start due to cold advection on
a northerly flow behind the front, with highs reaching the upper 50s
on Monday. Patchy frost will be possible Monday night when lows will
fall into the 30s under clear and calm conditions, especially in
eastern locations. A gradual warming trend under increasing
geopotential heights and a southerly low level flow will allow highs
to reach the low to mid 70s by late next week, about 10 degrees
above normal.


The pressure gradient will tighten ahead of an approaching cold
front. Expect VFR conditions through the night with mid level
CIGs developing by morning. Have low level wind shear developing
late tonight into early Sunday with winds at 2k ft around 40

As the front approaches scattered showers to spread in from the
west through mid morning and then linger into early to mid
afternoon. A very marginal ribbon of instability will exist
invof the front. Therefore, isolated embedded thunderstorm will
be possible, but the chance appears too low to mention in the
TAFs at this time. Expect a period of MVFR CIGs with the

As the pressure gradient continues to tighten up ahead the
front, southwest winds will increase through the morning with
gusts of 25 to 30 knots likely during the day on Sunday.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.




LONG TERM...Coniglio
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