Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 251741
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1241 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND SETTLE
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
850 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAKEN
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK CAA
CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TO BECOME MORE NEUTRAL THROUGH
THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE FAIRLY SOLID SC DECK CURRENTLY
IN PLACE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR...TO WORK
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES RANGING FROM MOSTLY
SUNNY SOUTHEAST TO CLOUDY NORTHWEST. WITH CLOUDS AND SOME WEAK
CAA...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS IT TRAVERSES THE
AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE CWA
ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN GET OVERPOWERED IN BETWEEN TWO COMPETING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE EAST COAST STORM AND A STRONG LOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THESE TWO WILL PUT THE REGION INTO A HOLDING
PATTERN UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MUSCLES EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A GENERALLY COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
USHERED IN BEHIND THIS UPPER TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW SKIRT THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS OR AT LEAST A MORE FAVORABLE AIRMASS FOR PASSING
FLURRIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING
SOME LIGHT QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW
PROBABILITY AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT.

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR DECK EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA
AND INTO OHIO HAS BEEN WORKING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY WHILE THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF IT HAS BECOME MORE DIURNAL LOOKING ON SATELLITE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH THE WEAKENING 850 MB TROUGH AXIS WITH
SOME OF THE DIURNAL CLOUDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
DISSIPATING AS WE GET INTO THIS EVENING. THE BIG QUESTION THEN
BECOMES HOW FAST/IF THE WESTERN EDGE WILL ERODE AWAY LATER TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC. AS USUAL...THE NAM IS MUCH MORE
PESSIMISTIC WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE GFS. HAVE ERRED
ON THE MORE PESSIMISTIC SIDE AND HUNG ON TO SOME MVFR CIGS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW WITH
THIS GIVEN THE DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JGL






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