Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 261056
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
656 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE
FA THIS MORNING. EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THIS CONVECTION HOWEVER THERE WILL BE AN OVERALL GENERAL
WEAKENING OF THIS CONVECTION DURING THE DAYTIME MORNING HOURS.

EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

WENT ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BECOME MORE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION TONIGHT CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL LIFT NORTHWARDS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. ON THURSDAY AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION AND THIS FEATURES
MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN TAPER OFF
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY COULD
ALSO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

THERE WILL BE A RANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
WARMER READINGS SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND COOLER VALUES
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK RIDGING WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
DRY AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

12Z GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING TIMING DISCREPANCIES WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. HAVE TAKEN MORE OF A
BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE TO TRY AND PINPOINT THE HIGHEST
THREAT FOR PCPN. THIS SHOULD OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH DECREASING CHANCES
ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL TREND
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE
LIKELIHOOD OF PCPN AND CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONVECTION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL QUICKLY WANE.
WINDS WILL BE VEERING THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AROUND OR
AFTER 18Z. APPEARS THAT GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN OHIO INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY. SO HAVE CONTINUED TO TARGET
A WINDOW OF TEMPO THUNDER AT KCVG/KLUK/KILN. ELSEWHERE THE
PROBABILITY SEEMS LOWER. SO HAVE JUST USED VCTS. APPEARS THAT
FRONT MAY BE A LITTLE LATER IN PUSHING THROUGH ALL OF THE
TERMINALS ESPECIALLY HEADING SOUTH. CONFLICTING SIGNALS REMAIN ON
WHETHER LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO
FORECAST MVFR CEILINGS LATE IN THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...



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