Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 240545

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
145 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

A warm front will lift north across the area tonight.
This will usher in above normal temperatures that will last
well into next week. A low pressure system will move into the
Great Lakes on Sunday with another low lifting into the area


Area of mid clouds spread through the region, with diminishing
precipitation ahead of an approaching warm front. Much of the
area is quite dry, and weakening precipitation approaching the
region is falling from a fairly high base cloud level. Have
adjusted precipitation timing a bit, bringing in spotty very
light showers a little further south and delaying advancement of
showers currently near Chicago to mainly after 03z across the
north, but will still be brief and light. Temperatures will
begin leveling off a bit by midnight then beginning to rise
after 06z.


Area will be in the warm sector through the period. Southerly
winds will bring an influx of moisture which will result in
quite a bit of cloud cover. Despite this, temperatures will be
rather mild. MOS blend seemed to have a reasonable handle on
both highs and lows. Not out of the question that a few showers
developing across Indiana could move into western counties late
Friday night.


A weakening upper level low pressure system will lift slowly
northeast from the mid Mississippi Valley on Saturday to the
eastern Great Lakes through Monday. Several pieces of mid/upper
level energy will rotate around the low and across our area
through the weekend leading to fairly high pops and occasional
showers. Instability remains fairly meager through Saturday
although there is a bit of an uptick in the mucapes during the
afternoon and into the evening which could lead to a few
embedded thunderstorms. With a warm air mass in place on
Saturday, highs will range from the upper 60s northwest to the
lower 70s across the southeast. The main upper level trough axis
will pivot up across our region late Saturday night and into
Sunday afternoon. Some slightly better instabilities will
develop out ahead of this which should lead to some better
chances of thunder for later Sunday morning and into the
afternoon, especially across eastern portions of our area. Highs
on Sunday will generally be in the 60s.

Brief mid level ridging will push east across the region Sunday
night, leading to a bit of a lull in any pcpn. However, another
upper level through axis will work east across the area Monday
into Tuesday. This will result in additional chances for showers
and embedded thunderstorms, primarily for Monday afternoon into
Tuesday morning. Ahead of this system, highs on Monday will warm
into the upper 60s to lower 70s, with highs cooling back down
into the 60s for Tuesday. Weak mid level ridging will then build
back into the region through mid week. This will lead to dry
conditions and slightly above normal temperatures for Wednesday
into Thursday.


Area is under a southerly flow ahead of low pressure centered
far to the west. A band of showers has developed at the nose of
a low level jet south of a warm front draped across the lower
Great Lakes. A few showers may occur in the vicinity of TAF
sites during the first few hours of the forecast. Wind shear
will affect all sites through the first several hours of
issuance thanks to the rather potent low level jet.

Once the showers and wind shear move east with the low level
jet, VFR will continue for the most part. The exception may be
at DAY where models indicate MVFR ceilings during the afternoon.
Surface wind speeds will increase at all sites, with gusts as
high as 31 knots at DAY. VFR is expected near the end of the
forecast, under subsiding winds and mid level clouds.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities expected Saturday
night into Sunday along with a chance of thunderstorms. MVFR
ceilings and visibilities will be possible again Monday night
into Tuesday.




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