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000
FXUS61 KILN 150819
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
419 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL EXTEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND LINGER BETWEEN THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND THE
OHIO RIVER THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFT SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THEY DIFFER IN THE INITIATION OF
STORMS ALONG THE FRONT...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED AS THEY TYPICALLY DO
NOT FARE WELL WITH CONVECTION. SPC NOTES THAT THE UNIDIRECTIONAL
SHEAR AND CAPES NEARING 1000J/KG MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE THREAT...GREATER TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. AM NOT CONVINCED
THAT THIS IS THE CASE AS THE GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT IS REALLY
SHOWING A UNIFORM W-E QPF FIELD INDICATIVE OF THE CONVECTION
INITIATING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGES.

THE CHANCES OF RAIN DO NOT REALLY RAMP UP UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY
WITH THE AFTERNOON FOCUS GENERALLY FOUND ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR.

TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL RISE NICELY OVER THE REGION TODAY.
EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S NORTH...MID TO UPPER
80S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DID NOT RAMP UP THE SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER 0Z AND ONLY NUDGED THEM
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. AS THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH THE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL KEEP
SHOWERS FORMING ALONG IT. IF WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS WERE MORE
SOUTHERLY I COULD SEE SOME OF THESE STORMS APPROACHING SEVERE
LIMITS. THIS IS NOT THE CASE AS 925 WINDS ARE ALMOST DUE WEST AND
IT IS THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT THAT PROVIDES MOST OF THE
CONVERGENCE THAT THE STORMS ARE GOING TO USE TO GET
INITIATED...LET ALONE DEEPEN TO SEVERE LIMITS.

FRONT WILL LINGER NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH FRIDAY AND
SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE A NARROW FOCUS IN THIS
AREA...SPILLING SOUTH OF THE OHIO AND NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
AT TIMES.

NO REAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS BEING SHOWN TO PUSH THE CHANCES FOR
RAIN INTO THE CATEGORICAL PERIOD AT THIS TIME NOR INDICATE A REAL
THREAT FOR SEVERE LIMITS TO BE REACHED.

THE MOIST AIRMASS AND PROXIMITY OF THE RAIN WITH THE FRONT WILL
KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS MILD TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60 AND LIMIT
DAYTIME HIGHS AFTER TODAY TO THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A FOCUS FOR PRIMARILY DIURNAL CONVECTION.

APPEARS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WILL STILL BE AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING AS UPPER HEIGHTS
RISE. AT THIS POINT EXPECT MONDAY TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THEN A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPILL SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NRN TAF SITES
ATTM AND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVG THRU THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL PULL A CDFNT
INTO THE REGION. MODEL TIME SERIES ARE INDICATING THAT THE CU
WILL BE LATE TO DEVELOP...WAITING UNTIL AFT 18-20Z WHEN THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE VCTS AT
KDAY/KCMH/KLCK AT 21Z. THE FNT WILL SAG FARTHER SOUTH DURING WED
NGT...BUT IN GENERAL WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TAFS...SO HAVE VCTS IN
ALL THE TAFS AFT 00Z.

INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH MIXING OF H8 JET WILL
KEEP WINDS GUSTY TODAY. HAVE GUSTS AROUND 25KTS...BUT A COUPLE
COULD APPROACH 30 KNOTS. PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS BY 00Z SO WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE BY SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SITES