Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
FXUS61 KILN 151725
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
125 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016
Southerly flow on the back side of high pressure along the
Atlantic coast will result in a warming trend with temperatures
rising well above normal. A cold front will move into the region
by the middle of next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Weak short wave tracking south of the region combined with an
increase in low level moisture has brought clouds and spotty light
showers/sprinkles into far southeast counties. Current fcst has
a good handle on this. Only change was to tweek temps down a bit
for now where cloud cover more extensive. Otherwise expect to see
clouds start to diminish in the afternoon.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Southerly flow will persist through the period. A cold front will
move into the Great Lakes before stalling. Showers may develop
well ahead of this boundary and could affect far northern
counties on Sunday. Low chance PoPs seem sufficient. Ridging
aloft will work into the area. This will lead to an increase in
temperatures. Stayed close to MOS for lows and went a bit above
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper ridging will remain in place at the beginning of the period.
The trend of warmer temperatures will result in readings
approaching record highs on Tuesday.
A trough will deepen to the west of the area for the latter part
of the week. There is some disagreement on placement as well as
how quickly this occurs. A cold front will drop southeast into the
region on Wednesday and slow its progression Wednesday night into
Thursday as waves of low pressure travel along the boundary.
Uncertainty becomes quite high by Friday with the potential for an
inverted trough to be lingering in the region. It will be
unsettled throughout this period of time with the best chance of
rain coming on Thursday. Temperatures will be cooler each day with
readings getting back closer to normal by Friday.
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Generally expect VFR conditions across the TAF sites except for
some river valley fog at KLUK tonight. Lower MVFR cigs to the west
in Indiana should stay to the west of TAF sites. Have lowered the
vsby tonight at KLUK a bit but will not go dense at this point.
Winds picked up this afternoon should diminish tonight but pick
back up again for Sunday.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.