Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KILN 151738
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
138 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY UPSTREAM OF THE REGION...FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. AHEAD OF
THIS...IN A REGIME OF WARM ADVECTION JUST OFF THE
SURFACE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXISTS AT
AROUND 750MB AS PER RAP/NAM DATA...BUT THIS IS FORECAST TO
DIMINISH TO AN EXTENT OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. WHILE POPS WERE
INCREASED IN THE NORTHWEST CWA THIS MORNING (AND A LIMITED AMOUNT
OF THUNDER INTRODUCED)...THESE FORECAST CHANGES WERE GENERALLY
CONSERVATIVE.

THE SURFACE FRONT IS ALSO ON ITS WAY SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE ILN
CWA...AND IT WILL ARRIVE IN THE NORTHWEST CWA BY EVENING. THE RAP
SEEMS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE TIGHTENING OF THE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT...AND DEPENDING HOW THE CURRENT
PRECIPITATION BEHAVES...TEMPERATURES MAY BE SUPPRESSED A FEW
DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST CWA COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...THE TEMPERATURES WERE NOT ADJUSTED...AND DEWPOINTS AND
SKY GRIDS APPEARED TO BE ON TRACK WITH CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT QUICKLY TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. A
QUICK MOVG H5 S/W SWINGING THRU THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION. BEST UPPER LEVEL PVA AND SFC MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA INTO NORTHERN OHIO.
LATEST MESO-SCALE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE PCPN MIGHT COME
IN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SO BACKED OFF ON THE
POPS SE OF I-71 TODAY...BUT KEPT THE POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE
CATEGORY IN THE NW COUNTIES.

HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER TODAY...REACHING THE UPPER 60S IN
WEST CENTRAL OHIO RAMPING UP TO THE MID 70S IN THE LOWER SCIOTO
VALLEY AND NE KENTUCKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE S/W WILL RACE ACROSS NRN OH...NR LAKE ERIE TONIGHT. BEST
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES...SO KEPT THE BRIEF
PERIOD OF HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME NRN
COUNTIES AROUND 00Z. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING
AS THE FRONT SLIPS SOUTH INTO THE FA AS A E-W ORIENTED FRONT. THIS
WILL CAUSE A TIGHT GRADIENT IN POPS WITH THE SRN HALF OF THE FA
ONLY SEEING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. WITH VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY...KEPT
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
40S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO TONIGHT...BUT WILL HOLD IN THE LOWER 50S
IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

THE SYSTEM WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. CAA IN THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD KICK OFF SOME CU DEVELOPMENT. COOLER AIR WILL RETURN ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY MAKING THE 60S.

CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT UNDER THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE. CU DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY...BUT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. A WARMING TRENDING WILL BEGIN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS MAKING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES AND MEAN TROF OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AT MID
WEEK. THIS PLACES THE OHIO VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WASH OUT. BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN
ORIGIN TO BUILD SE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.
DRY AND COOL WEATHER TO CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN FROM
THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.

MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY WITH THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TRACKING INTO NEW ENGLAND. A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF RE-TREATING SFC HIGH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLIGHT MODIFICATION OF TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY FROM THE
LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROF
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL US. WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY ON
SATURDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM UP. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
70S NORTH TO AROUND 80 SOUTH.

PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF TO TRANSLATE EAST WITH ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. WILL INTRODUCE
CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHWEST AND ACRS THE
ENTIRE FA SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...AN AREA OF RAIN (WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION) HAS DEVELOPED
OVER INDIANA. THIS PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN TIMED INTO THE TAF SITES
WITH THE LATEST FORECAST...WITH A SLIGHTLY LARGER IMPACT EXPECTED
FOR THE DAYTON AND COLUMBUS TAF SITES. ALTHOUGH CEILINGS ARE
MAINLY VFR IN THIS AREA OF RAIN...VISIBILITIES MAY DROP INTO THE
MVFR RANGE (OR EVEN IFR IN A THUNDERSTORM OR HEAVY SHOWER).

AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE...LEADING TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CEILINGS. HEAVY
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY 00Z-03Z...BUT LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE
MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY
LIFT ON TUESDAY MORNING...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.