Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 302050
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
450 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
INTO THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN A WARM AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA. THIS IS ALSO THE AREA THAT WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF SEEING SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE PRIMARY THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE WIND
HOWEVER ISOLATED HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHLIGHTED THIS THREAT
IN THE HWO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF
THE FA WHERE WINDS WILL BE MORE OUT OF THE ENE OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL ALSO BE THE AREA WHERE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
HEAVIEST RAIN OVERNIGHT. ADDED IN HEAVY RAIN MENTION INTO THE HWO
AND ALSO PUT HEAVY RAIN MENTION INTO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA ON
SUNDAY TRAVELING FROM AROUND JUST NORTH OF DAYTON TO JUST NORTH OF
COLUMBUS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND JUST OF THIS
AREA. AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EXPECT A WIDE RANGE IN
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA
ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S WHILE SE PORTIONS OF THE FA ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 80S. COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE FA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO DROP
ACROSS THE REGION. COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NW
PORTIONS OF THE FA TO UPPER 50S ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIOD WILL START WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A
FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIAL CLOUDS AND
RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS. SOME SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH THE REGION IN A BIT OF A COL BETWEEN WESTERLIES TO THE
NORTH AND A CUT OFF LOW IN THE DEEP SOUTH. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/
INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
PERHAPS EVEN DRIFT BACK NORTH A BIT. A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS EVOLUTION. BUT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO WARRANT
CHANCE POPS...MOSTLY DIURNAL...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY WARM DURING THIS PERIOD.

AS SOUTHERN LOW OPENS UP THE WESTERLIES WILL SAG SOUTHWARD LATE IN
THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. IT APPEARS THAT HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE RADAR
CURRENTLY. DUE TO COVERAGE HAVE ADDED TEMPO TSRA TO ALL TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT COVERAGE TO REMAIN WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. A SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD HELP TO TRANSITION BEST
COVERAGE FARTHER NORTH. HIGH RES MODELS THEN ARE INDICATING A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE AREA EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING ALONG A FRONT. HIGH RES MODELS THEN WEAKEN THE N-S LINE AS
IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS. NAM AND GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW IFR CIGS OFF TO THE WEST WITH MVFR TOWARDS
THE EAST. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED CIGS DOWN.

OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR OR IFR CIGS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HAINES






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