Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 081133
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
633 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and dry conditions will be present today into
tonight. An area of low pressure and associated cold front will
move across the region on Saturday bringing snow the area. Dry
conditions will return for Sunday before another system
approaches on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Mid and high clouds will move across the region today, with more
cloud cover across the Scioto Vally and less across locations
northwest of Dayton. High pressure will allow for day
conditions. With southerly flow and WAA, temperatures will rise
today into the 30s across the region. Went close to guidance for
high temperatures today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Most of the mid and high clouds will move out of the area by
evening, leaving mostly clear skies for several hours tonight.
With dry air in place and mostly clear skies expect temperatures
to drop off quickly this evening and into tonight. The model
blends (Superblend, NBM) are well above guidance values for low
temperatures for tonight. Went much closer to guidance values
than the blended solutions as the guidance values seem more
realistic given the scenario. Could see values even getting
colder than currently forecast if clouds hold off long enough.

Temperatures will start to rise across western portions of the
forecast area late in the overnight hours as clouds start to
move into the region in advance of a cold front. Models are in
pretty good agreement on holding off precipitation until the day
on Saturday and therefore slowed precipitation onset and have
Friday night dry.

At the start of the day on Saturday there is quite a bit of dry
air in the low levels and therefore it will take a little bit
of time for saturation to occur. A cold front will move through
during the day on Saturday with the best upper support across
northern portions of the forecast area and this will be the
focus of the best chance of snow for the first half of the day
into the early afternoon hours.

As the afternoon progresses however, winds off of Lake Michigan
become more favorable for snow showers across an area from
generally northwest of Interstate 71 and near/a little south of
Interstate 70. Snow ratios will be a little higher later in the
day.

In general expect a half inch or less of snow along and south
of the Ohio River. The Scioto River Valley will generally see a
half inch to an inch. Northwest of Interstate 71 and north of
Cincinnati will likely have the highest totals in the one to two
inch range.

With the scattered and small band nature of the snow some
locations will have the possibility to see slightly less or
slightly more than their general amounts. Winds will also pick
up Saturday afternoon with some wind gusts around 20 to 30 mph.
This will add to some of the visibility reductions with the snow
that does occur.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Snow showers at the beginning of the period will taper off as the
the low level flow backs. Warm air advection will ensue with
temperatures getting back to near normal by Monday.

Monday night into Tuesday another short wave will drop into the mean
trough and then quickly swing east. Associated surface low will pass
north of the forecast area, so only a low chance of any
precipitation with this in the far northern counties. But strong
cold air advection in the wake of the low will result in lake
enhanced snow showers late Monday night into Tuesday. There will
likely be early highs Tuesday with readings dropping in the
afternoon. Temperatures will then plummet to 10 to 15 Tuesday night.

Yet another, albeit weaker, short wave will pass across the Great
Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday. Once again, chance of
precipitation will be greater to the north of the area, but cannot
rule out some snow showers in northern counties. Temperatures will
slowly moderate ahead of this system.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will be present for most of the TAF period. Only
expect some mid and high clouds to move across the region today
and tonight. A cold front will move through on Saturday
bringing snow to the region. Bring snow into the longer KCVG TAF
on Saturday and reduce vsbys with the snow.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Saturday
and then again Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Novak
NEAR TERM...Novak
SHORT TERM...Novak
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Novak



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