Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 311519
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1119 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...PROVIDING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY JUMPED INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 2-3 DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. HUMIDITY WILL
REMAIN AT FAIRLY COMFORTABLE LEVELS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
60S.

MAIN CONCERN OF THE NEAR TERM IS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WEAKENING AS IT EXITS THE
SOUTHEAST CWA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THIS
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT APPEARS
TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. ONE INHIBITING FACTOR
WILL BE LIMITED MOISTURE AS EVIDENCED BY THE 12Z KILN PWAT OF 0.78
INCHES. WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ALLOW PWATS TO RISE JUST A
BIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT STILL LARGELY UNIMPRESSIVE. MAIN
INHIBITING FACTOR WILL BE A NOSE OF WARM AIR ALOFT CENTERED
ROUGHLY AROUND 600MB...SEEN ON THE 12Z KILN SOUNDING AND DEPICTED
IN NEARLY EVERY FORECAST SOUNDING. THIS WILL SEVERELY LIMIT
INSTABILITY...AND COMBINED WITH THE POOR MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE LOW
SIDE OF THE AREAL COVERAGE SPECTRUM. IF STORMS DO MATERIALIZE...DECENT
SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KNOTS THROUGH THE 0-6 KM LAYER MAY
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED ORGANIZED STORM OR TWO. POPS HAVE BEEN LIMITED
TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA AS
SUPPORTED BY MOST HI-RES MODEL REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING...AS THE WEAK
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DO LITTLE TO DISRUPT THE
OVERALL SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY REGION. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
PRIMARY STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...AND SPEEDY UPPER FLOW MOVING FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA
INTO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE TRACK MAY SHIFT JUST
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF DISTURBANCES TO BRUSH PAST
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE OHIO VALLEY...A TREND THAT MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WERE
LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...AND FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (A RECURRING THEME IN THE
FORECAST DISCUSSION THIS MORNING). TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM A
LITTLE EACH DAY...FROM FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
REMAINING VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE AND THE LENGTH OF TIME
THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS YESTERDAY WERE INDICATING A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  GFS IS
STILL INDICATING THIS WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOW TRYING TO BRING A LARGE
SURGE OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME KEPT THE DRY SOLUTION
AND WENT WITH THE GFS FOR THIS TIME.  CONTINUED THE DRY CONDITIONS
INTO THURSDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
AREA THIS EVENING BUT LIMITED MOISTURE. WILL SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU
AND THEN SOME MID CLOUDS UNTIL FRONT PUSHES EAST. ISOLATED SHRA
AND TSRA WITH FRONT BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INTRODUCE
INTO TAFS. WINDS WILL PICK UP AND BE A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT IN SCATTERED STORMS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...KURZ/HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...PADGETT


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