Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 262338
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
738 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AREA TRYING TO BECOME MORE CELLULAR LOOKING...BUT IT STILL LOOKS
FAIRLY SOLID ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A FEW VERY WEAK RETURNS ARE
SHOWING UP ON RADAR OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THERE HAVE BEEN A
FEW SPOTTY REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN AT SOME OF THE OBS SITES ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA. WITH THE NAM SUGGESTING SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER
850-700 MB MOISTURE WORKING DOWN INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FA...WILL HANG ON TO A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH INTO
EARLY EVENING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY ERODE AWAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID
50S...BUT THEY WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE CLOUDS
ARE ABLE TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF
OUR FA WHERE THEY SHOULD BE LAST TO SCATTER OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AS SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND LEAD TO A WARM UP AS WE START TO GET INTO SOME
RETURN FLOW. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S...WARMING INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS MODELS TRY TO PIN DOWN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF ERIKA AND A
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS...THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND A LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE AS A RESULT.

A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DRAW A PLUME OF GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DEWPOINTS
RETURNING TO THE 60S. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WARM SECTOR MAY ALLOW
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT A
BETTER CHANCE WILL COME FROM SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE BEST
FORCING ACROSS THE NORTH...HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN CWA
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS IN FLOW
PATTERNS ALOFT BY LATE SUNDAY...AND CONFIDENCE DECREASES APPRECIABLY
FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE 26.12Z ECMWF
WEAKENS THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE 26.12Z
BREAKS DOWN A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. HAVE THEREFORE TAKEN A BLEND OF
THESE MODELS...GOING WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN DEVELOP A BROAD MID/UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST BY TUESDAY WITH WARMING /ABOVE NORMAL/
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEATHER MAP FEATURES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A
TROUGH IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT AT LUK WHERE BR MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY
LATER TONIGHT. CLOUDS THAT HAVE PERSISTED UNDER A COUPLE OF
INVERSIONS ARE ERODING AT CVG LUK AND ILN. MODELS INDICATE THAT
BKN CEILINGS MAY LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT AT DAY CMH AND LCK. ALL
SITES MAY SEE BKN CEILINGS FORM AGAIN AFTER 12Z. CVG SHOULD HAVE
CLEARING SKIES AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...CONIGLIO


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