Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 150737
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
337 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...SHIFTING
EAST OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARMING TREND AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A LARGE BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW HAS OCCURRED WEST OF I-75
AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT CLOSE TO...IF NOT SLIGHTLY MORE...THAN A QUARTER OF
AN INCH OF PRECIP WILL FALL OUT OF THIS BAND THIS MORNING AS IT
PROGRESSES ACROSS OUR AREA. SOME LOCATIONS...INCLUDING AREAS NORTH
AND EAST OF I-71...WILL SEE THE MAJORITY OF THIS PRECIP FALL SNOW.
AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL SEE A PROGRESSIVELY LESSER PROPORTION
OF THEIR PRECIP FALL AS SNOW...DUE TO A LAG IN COLDER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVING THERE BEFORE SUNRISE. SOME OF THE SNOWFALL WILL
ULTIMATELY BE LOST AS IT REACHES THE SURFACE DUE TO RECENT WARMER
TEMPERATURES CAUSING MELTING AS IT MEETS SURFACE RADIATION. THIS
COMPLICATES THE SNOWFALL TOTAL FORECAST AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME REDUCTION DUE TO THIS MELTING ON THE GROUND. ELEVATED
SURFACES MAY BE MORE IMMUNE TO THIS MELTING. AM FORECASTING 1 TO 2
INCHES TO STICK TO THE SURFACES FROM THE DAYTON AREA EAST TO
COLUMBUS AND POINTS NORTHWARD. LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.

SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA WILL KEEP COLD ADVECTION AND BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EVEN WITH SOME SUN
BEGINNING TO SHOW LATE IN THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 20S ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS. THIS WILL REQUIRE THE UPGRADE TO A FREEZE WARNING ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
INITIATE RETURN FLOW AND A REBOUND OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION IN SLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO PUSH INTO THE 60S.

MODELS HAVE STARTED TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION FOR FRIDAYS SYSTEM
KICKING OF THE NATIONS MID SECTION. THE GFS IS MUCH LESS ENERGETIC
AND WOUND UP WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE STRONGER. THE 12Z ECMWF
HAS ACTUALLY WEAKENED THE SYSTEM A LITTLE. FRIDAY SHOULD START OFF
DRY...WITH POPS INCREASING DURING THE DAY...BUT IN THE CHC CATEGORY.
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE CARRIED IN THE W. THE BEST LIFT COME ACROSS
FRIDAY NIGHT...SO CARRIED THE BEST POPS THEN. THE SYSTEM PULLS E ON
SATURDAY...LEAVING A LINGERING CHC OF SHOWERS.

OVER THE WEEKEND...THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY WHILE
THE ECMWF PUTS MORE FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH INDUCES A
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE ENSEMBLES ARE LEANING
TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION...SO DOWNPLAYED THE NRN STREAM ENERGY.

WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. ON FRIDAY...HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S...WITH THE SE STAYING AROUND 70. OVER THE
WEEKEND HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN HAS BEGUN TO TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR FA WITH -SN NOW FALLING AT KCVG AND KDAY. THIS IS PERHAPS
AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN SUGGESTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO
HAVE SPED UP TIMING OF CHANGEOVER BY ABOUT AN HOUR AT THE
REMAINING TAF SITES. CAA IS PRETTY STRONG SO WHILE THERE COULD BE
A BRIEF PERIOD SLEET WITH THE TRANSITION...EXPECT A FAIRLY QUICK
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. HEAVIEST PCPN/LOWEST VSBYS WILL OCCUR IN THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAFS AS PCPN CONTINUES TO FILL IN ACROSS OUR
AREA. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK AS DRIER
AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE AREA. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES TOWARD THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ077.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR OHZ077>082-088.
KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ089>092-
     094-095.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ073>075-
     080.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR INZ073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...JGL






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