Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KILN 142100
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
400 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO
VALLEY MOVES EAST AND LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE MIDWEST. AS
THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ON MONDAY...A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION BY
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER WILL ONLY LET NIGHTTIME LOWS DROP TO ABOUT
10 DEG OFF OF TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURE. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
THIS AFTERNOON IS THE AREA OF CLEARING IN NE IN/NW OH THAT WOULD
APPEAR TO HOLD TOGETHER AT LEAST FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING. WILL
ADJUST THIS EVENINGS TEMPERATURES DOWN AND EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER
TO WORK BACK IN AFTER A BRIEF CLEARING THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM ADVECTION WILL EAT AT THE OVERCAST CLOUD DECK EARLY MONDAY
FOR SOME SUNNY BREAKS BEFORE THE NEXT OVERCAST DECK COINCIDES
WITH THE BAND OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEST AND INTO
THE ERN GTLKS REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUES. SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF IT TUESDAY NIGHT MAY SEE COOL ENOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING.

AFTER THE INITIAL SHOT OF RAIN MONDAY EVENING...SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE IN NATURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ON TUESDAY AFTER A MEAGER RECOVERY FROM THE
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SFC LOW SHOULD HELP
LINGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. WOULDNT
BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE A FEW FLURRIES IN THE PATTERN...BUT WILL
KEEP THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

AS LOW SLOWLY PULLS OUT...IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A STRUNG OUT HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC LOW IN THE SRN MS
VALLEY AND THEREFORE THE NORTHERLY SPREAD OF ITS PCPN IN THE REGION.
12Z GFS HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER...PULLING THE SFC LOW TRACK UP THRU
THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS LOOKS TO HAVE
OVER DEVELOPED THE H5 S/W. THE CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS IS A
MORE MUTED SFC LOW THAT PUSHES EWD THRU THE GULF COAST STATES AND
INTO THE CAROLINAS. LEANED TOWARDS THIS CONSENSUS SOLUTION WHICH
BRINGS SOME VERY LIGHT PCPN IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE SRN HALF.
THIS COULD FALL AS A MIX OR RAIN/SNOW OR SOME SLEET. SATURDAY IS
LOOKING LIKE A RAIN SNOW MIX.

THE SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT LEAVING THE REGION UNDER COLD ADVECTION FOR
SUNDAY.

HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. THEY SHOULD RANGE IN THE
30S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOUTHERN LOCATIONS MIGHT MAKE IT
INTO THE 40S FRIDAY WHILE THE NORTH REMAINS IN THE 30S. SATURDAY
WILL SEE HIGHS SIMILAR TO FRIDAY BEFORE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKS
BACK IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS CAN GENERALLY BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THE LONGER KCVG TAF WHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR AGAIN THE LONGER KCVG
TAF WHERE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.