Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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792
FXUS61 KILN 021339
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
839 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Flow around a large low pressure system to the northeast will keep
cool and mainly cloudy conditions across the region today. High
pressure will gradually build into the area on Saturday. The high
will move east on Sunday while a weak upper level disturbance
moves to the Great Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Some very light returns have developed on radar across northern
portions of our fa this morning and we are getting some reports
of light drizzle along some possible light flurries mixed in with
this. This seems to line up well with a narrow axis of slightly
deeper moisture as shown on the latest RAP that will shift east
southeast across our northern fa through early afternoon. As a
result, will go ahead and add a chance of flurries/drizzle through
the morning hours and then try to taper it off heading into this
afternoon. Otherwise, skies will remain mainly cloudy through the
afternoon. This will help keep temperatures from rising too much
with highs only in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Mid level low to our northeast will rotate out to sea on Saturday
while a mid level ridge moves east into the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley. The mid level ridge will be accompanied by surface high
pressure. There are some indications that pesky stratocumulus will
try to erode late tonight into Saturday morning. But more often
than not, low clouds tend to hold on longer than expected. In either
case, considerable high level clouds, then mid level clouds will
be pushing through the relatively low amplitude mid level ridge.
So, there could be a few peaks of sun on Saturday, but clouds
should predominate. Highs on Saturday will again range from the
upper 30s to the lower 40s.

Operational models are in fairly decent agreement in terms of the
next weather system to affect our region on Sunday. Surface high
pressure will move east by Sunday. As this occurs, a fast moving
s/wv will push east into the Great Lakes. Overall forcing with
this system will be weak. Some isentropic lift will occur with it,
spreading light precipitation into our southwest/western zones
during the first part of Sunday. Model soundings indicate a dry
sub cloud layer at first, so some of this may go into saturating
the atmosphere before any precipitation reaches the ground.
Depending on how fast precipitation reaches the ground will
determine if a a little snow will mix in before it becomes warm
enough for mostly light rain for all locations by mid afternoon.

This system will be fast moving, and by Sunday night, precipitation
will be quickly exiting to the east. Again, mainly rain is
expected, except for the far northern zones where a little snow
may mix in before ending.

Temperatures on Sunday will be in the upper 30s to the lower 40s.
Lows by Monday morning will bottom out mainly in the lower 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A brief lull in the precipitation will occur through the daytime
hours on Monday. The next system will move up from the south
Monday night through Tuesday. Precipitation will generally be in
the form of rain with this system as warmer air in drawn in from
the south.

Another system will move through Wednesday night into Thursday. GFS
is not as pronounced with the precipitation with this system. Went
closer to the ECMWF solution. After the frontal passage on Thursday,
much colder air will work into the region. Some light snow will be
possible then on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR ceilings will be the main impact for the TAF sites over the
next 6 hours or so. A fairly solid deck of clouds at around
2000-2500 feet has developed, and will continue to hang over the
TAF sites through the morning. There are a few patches of clouds
in the 1500-2000 foot range, so some TEMPO groups have been
included in the TAFs to account for this. It is unlikely that the
cloud heights will lift much until several hours after sunrise,
and the TAFS will indicate prevailing VFR conditions by late
morning, but with a chance for some temporary MVFR ceilings into
the early afternoon.

Westerly winds will remain in place at around 8-10 knots
this morning, and will increase slightly by afternoon, with some
gusts to around 20 knots possible.

There is a very small chance of some flurries this afternoon at
KDAY/KCMH/KLCK but with no expected impact to aviation conditions.
This will not be included in the forecast.

Tonight and into early Saturday morning, there is some chance of
clouds dropping back into the MVFR range. While this will not be
included in this set of TAFs, MVFR ceilings may need to be
introduced if confidence in the scenario increases.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible on Saturday morning. MVFR
ceilings and visibilities are possible on Sunday, and again on
Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Novak
AVIATION...Hatzos



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