Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 211801
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
101 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY...A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING UP THROUGH
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION THIS MORNING.
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR HAS RESULTED IN COLD MORNING
LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE UPPER TEENS. THIS HIGH WILL
SLIDE EAST ACRS THE REGION TODAY PROVIDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE THE
MID 20S NE TO THE MID 30S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL REACH THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. BEHIND IT SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE AND WILL BEGIN TO PULL WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL OCCUR EARLY...THEN WILL
RISE. TREND OF THE MODELS HAS BEEN TO DECREASE THE AMOUNT AND
COVERAGE OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING WWA LAOFT/ISENTROPIC LIFT.
IF THERE IS SOME QPF...TEMPERATURES IN SOME LOCATIONS MAY BE BELOW
FREEZING...SO CONTINUED MENTION OF CHC FREEZING RAIN IN THE NW 1/2
OF THE FA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE QUICKLY ON SATURDAY. IT DOESNT
LOOK LIKE THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL BE DEEPLY ENTRENCHED. DONT
BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FREEZING RAIN TO CAUSE ANY
PROBLEMS.

PCPN WILL LIFT N THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE A
LINGERING CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE N SATURDAY NIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT FOR SUNDAY. 00Z RUNS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND FROM YESTERDAYS
12Z RUNS WHICH SHOWED A SLOWING OF THE ONSET OF THE RAIN SUNDAY.
KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS ON SUNDAY...BUT PUSHED BACK THE HIGHEST POPS
UNTIL AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN...BUT AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL OCCUR EARLY.
EXPECT THEM TO VARY WIDELY RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS EAST OF
COLUMBUS AROUND 30 IN NRN KY...THEN RISE TOWARDS MORNING. UPPED
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WITH THE WARM AIR PUSH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP
OUT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH INTO
THE 50S EVERYWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM OF THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY AMPLIFIED...WITH A RETURN OF THE FAMILIAR MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING ACROSS COVERING A LARGE PORTION OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THE AXIS OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY...PROVIDING FOR A PERIOD OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH
ON MONDAY...AS THE STORM TRACK OVER THE REGION REMAINS BASED ON
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL CHANGE BY LATER ON MONDAY...AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...PUTTING TEMPERATURES BACK ON
THE COLDER SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM ADVECTION AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE
DEEPENS...TEMPERATURES MONDAY HAVE BEEN RAISED BY A COUPLE
DEGREES.

CHANCES FOR SPOTTY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH
ANOTHER POTENT COLD FRONT CROSSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET
WARM...WITH 60S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER...THE
FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES NON-DIURNALLY AS IT MOVES EAST...WITH
DRY AIR BEHIND IT PUTTING AN END TO CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION. GFS/ECMWF PROJECTIONS LOOK GUSTY (20-30 KNOTS) BEHIND
THE FRONT...EVEN THOUGH THE DIRECTION OF THE FLOW ONLY CHANGES
SLIGHTLY FROM SSW TO WSW.

A WEAK WAVE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT THERE
REMAINS SIGNIFICANT RUN-TO-RUN DISCONTINUITY WITH THIS SYSTEM. POPS
HAVE BEEN KEPT TO SLIGHT CHANCE. WHAT APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN IS THAT
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTN AND AN
INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY WITH EMBEDDED S/W PASSING THRU THE GREAT LAKES LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS LATE
TONIGHT WITH VFR CIGS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FEET. THERMAL
PROFILES POINT TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN ALL BUT
KCVG/KLUK LATE TONIGHT. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS SHOWING A SPREAD
IN ACTUAL PCPN DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE...WITH GFS/ECMWF AND
MESOSCALE MODELS BEING MORE GENEROUS THAN NAM. GIVEN STRENGTH OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT
ALL BUT KCVG/KLUK. EXPECT BEST COVERAGE OF PCPN TO BE NORTH OF
OHIO RIVER...SO HAVE JUST A MENTION OF VCSH AT KCVG/KLUK.
PRECIPITATION AXIS TO PIVOT NE COMING TO AN END QUICKLY SAT
MORNING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SE TONIGHT AND THEN
SW 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KTS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...AR






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