Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 221750 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 150 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. IT WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT. OUTSIDE OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... STRATUS DECK IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA HIS MORNING ALTHOUGH SOME CLEAR SPOTS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF OUR SOUTHWEST. NORTHEASTERLY 925 MB FLOW THIS MORNING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME OF THESE LOWER CLOUDS TO ADVECT BACK INTO SOME OF THE CLEAR AREAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO MORE OF AN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SLOW CLEARING TREND ACROSS AT LEAST THE WEST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY WORKING INTO OUR EASTERN AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL CAA WILL PERSIST INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON BUT HIGH TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE MORE AFFECTED BY HOW LONG THE STRATUS HANGS AROUND. WILL RANGE HIGHS FROM THE LOW 50S EAST TO THE MID 50S WEST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A CALM NIGHT TO THE REGION. COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES...A GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IS IN THE OFFING TONIGHT AND AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS LOWS DROP TO THE MID 30S. LIGHT NORTH FLOW IN GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BRING A NICE FALL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON THURSDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT...BUT EASTERN CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES AND HAVE LIGHT WINDS FOR A POTENTIAL FROST REPEAT ON FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS GENERALLY LOCATED EAST AND SOUTH OF METRO COLUMBUS...AND FROM BROWN AND MASON COUNTIES EASTWARD TO THE SCIOTO VALLEY. A BRIEF SPRINKLE MAY FALL FROM THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EARLY ON FRIDAY...BUT THE REGION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY AND THE CHANCES AND/OR AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS POSSIBILITY ARE BOTH SMALL. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EACH DAY AFTER THURSDAY WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE. ./SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS THE AREA AND GETS ABSORBED...BUT THE 12Z MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEFINITION TO HAVE SOME IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AS WELL. WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...IT STILL SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA) WILL REMAIN DRY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 925MB/850MB WILL COMBINE WITH FULL SUN TO LEAD TO WARMING SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE. STAGNANT SURFACE CONDITIONS IN A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS AN ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. AFTER THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ENTER A REGIME OF DEEPER SSW FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER WARMING OF TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S VERY POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY. AS RIDGING TURNS TO TROUGHING GOING FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGINS TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. WITH THAT SAID...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THOUGH ADMITTEDLY THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOT AS SHARP WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL COME INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...REQUIRING SOME DAY 8 POPS AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS THE AREA AND GETS ABSORBED...BUT THE 12Z MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEFINITION TO HAVE SOME IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AS WELL. WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...IT STILL SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA) WILL REMAIN DRY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 925MB/850MB WILL COMBINE WITH FULL SUN TO LEAD TO WARMING SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE. STAGNANT SURFACE CONDITIONS IN A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS AN ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. AFTER THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ENTER A REGIME OF DEEPER SSW FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER WARMING OF TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S VERY POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY. AS RIDGING TURNS TO TROUGHING GOING FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGINS TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. WITH THAT SAID...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THOUGH ADMITTEDLY THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOT AS SHARP WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL COME INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...REQUIRING SOME DAY 8 POPS AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ALLOWING FOR THE MVFR STRATUS DECK TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS STILL TRYING TO CLEAR THINGS OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BUT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THINKING THIS IS LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SUGGESTING THAT THE CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO BECOME MORE DIURNAL ACROSS AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AND THOSE AREAS SHOULD HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT SCATTERING OUT. WILL THEREFORE ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN TAF SITES AS WE GET TOWARD SUNSET. FARTHER EAST IS MORE PROBLEMATIC AS LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY ACTUALLY STAY MORE CYCLONIC THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A RESULT...WILL TREND PESSIMISTIC AND HANG ON TO SOME MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT KCMH/KLCK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. .OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...JGL

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