Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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972 FXUS61 KILN 231043 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 643 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the region through the end of the week. This will provide for mainly dry conditions and cooler temperatures through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The cold front has pushed southeast of our area this morning but in the developing low level CAA behind the front, some areas of stratocu have developed. As a result, will linger clouds a bit longer through daybreak in the south. Otherwise, as we start to get some daytime heating, we should cu up across the remainder of the area later this morning and on into this afternoon. Some of the models are trying to produce a few spotty showers across our far north later this afternoon, but with the moisture mainly relegated to the low levels, think any coverage will be limited. With a cooler airmass working in behind the front, highs today will only be in the mid to upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Any lingering cu should dissipate this evening as we lose the daytime heating. With clear skies and decreasing winds, expect lows in the low to mid 50s with a few upper 40s not out of the question across our northwest. A mid level short wave will drop down across the area through the day on Thursday. This will allow us to cu up once again and may be enough to produce a few showers, especially across our northeast. Highs on Thursday will be in the low to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... An upper level shortwave will be moving overhead Thursday night with CAA continuing over the region. Friday morning the longwave trough axis will be centered over New York with surface high pressure over northern Michigan. Winds will likely decouple Friday morning with low temperatures in the lower 50s (some upper 40s in rural areas). During the day Friday 850 mb temperatures will hold around 8 degrees C with high temperatures only expected to climb into the mid 70s. Saturday into Sunday again look pleasant with high temperatures slowly warming each progressive day into the upper 70s. Most of the weekend will remain dry with only some models hinting at very light QPF totals Sunday evening. For now have left the forecast dry through the weekend as PWATs remain between 0.50" to 0.60" (near record low values for this time of year). Monday through Wednesday low confidence exists in the forecast as mid-level ridging builds across the Mountain West and a shortwave dives south into the plains. At the same time both the ECMWF and GFS have a quasi-stationary tropical system near southeast Texas. Exactly how and if the tropical system and shortwave interact continues to be nebulous. For now have kept PoPs at chance for the end of the extended due to low confidence and high uncertainty. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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There are still a few patchy areas of sc floating around but for the most part, skies have gone mostly clear across the area this morning. In a low level CAA pattern, expect to see scattered cu develop later this morning and on into this afternoon. The cu should then dissipate heading into this evening as we lose the daytime heating, leaving mostly clear skies overnight. OUTLOOK...No significant weather.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Haines AVIATION...JGL

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