Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 121804 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 104 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Gusty west northwest winds moving across the Great Lakes will bring snow showers to the region today into this evening. An area of low pressure will track across the area Wednesday into Wednesday night. High pressure will build in Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Convective elements in the lake-enhanced bands feeding off of Lake Michigan and nosing from nw of Dayton seward to Wilmington will continue to create hazardous weather this afternoon. The band will become more wnw-ese oriented later this afternoon as it curves into central Ohio. Temperatures have likely hit their maxima today as gusty northwest winds will keep a steady or slow drop in readings over the region for the rest of the day. While visbilities in the snow will drop to near zero at times, lower dewpoints, strong winds, and the transient nature of the strongest showers will limit any accumulations to a half inch or less. Even if an area sits under a band of showers for an hour or two and gets an accumulation of an inch, the conditions that follow will cut this significantly, and surface temperatures on area roadways will limit it even further, at least initially this early afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... The snow band off of Lake Michigan will be weakening through the evening as winds back and gradually diminish. Clouds will erode from the southwest, although any clearing in far northern counties will likely be short-lived as clouds ahead of the next system will already be encroaching by daybreak Wednesday. The next system in northwest flow will approach on Wednesday. Precipitation will break out ahead of low pressure that will be just northwest of the forecast area by the end of the day. Better chance of precipitation will be across the northern counties in the afternoon with the possibility of up to an inch of accumulation north of I-70 during the daylight hours. Forecast temperatures are slightly below guidance. Even with decreasing winds Tuesday night, wind chill will be in the single digits area wide. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... An area of low pressure will move across northern portions of the region north of Interstate 70 Wednesday night. Although there are precipitation chances across the entire forecast area Wednesday night the best chance for precipitation will be across northern and eastern portions of the region. Precipitation will generally be in the form of snow, however along and south of the Ohio River some rain will also be possible. 1 to 2 inches of snow will be possible across northern portions of the forecast area Wednesday night. As the feature moves to the east Wednesday night strong CAA will allow for temperatures to drop into the teens to the mid 20s. Wind gusts will be 30 to 35 mph at times with isolated gusts upwards of 40 mph possible. Precipitation will taper off Thursday morning and wind gusts will begin to subside. Although surface high pressure will allow for dry conditions for most of the day on Thursday, with CAA there will be plenty of cloud cover across the region for Thursday. A weak system will move through Friday which will bring the chance for light snow showers to the region. There are some model variations with how much moisture is going to be with this system. Went closer to the drier ECMWF for this event. Precipitation will taper off Friday night and dry conditions will return for Saturday. With WAA temperatures are expected to climb on Saturday to the middle 30s to middle 40s. Another system will bring precipitation up into the region Sunday into Monday. A mix of rain and snow is expected with that system. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Snow showers along a band will affect DAY and ILN early this afternoon and skirt CVG and LUK. CVG and LUK will have any weather (including potential for MFVR cigs) end in the next hour or so. As the afternoon progresses, the band should pivot northeastward and become more wnw-ese oriented as it affects central Ohio and CMH and LCK later this afternoon and into the early evening hours. MVFR to a few minutes of IFR vsbys will be found in these showers but the prevailing vsbys should remain MVFR or higher if time is considered. Showers should be transient in nature and may not affect TAF sites for more than 1/2 hour at a shot. At CVG/LUK and later at DAY and ILN skies should clear. Coarse resolution models are painting cigs over the region but this is due to the increased RH and lift. Higher res models are showing that these features are due to the snow and do not extend beyond the convective elements and downstream lake enhanced bands. Next shot of snow and lowering but still VFR cigs may occur over central Ohio towards the end of the valid 24 hour TAF period, possibly DAY as well. Bulk of adverse weather will be beyond the 18-24z time frame and valid TAF window. Winds will subside in the evening. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities along with wind gusts to 25 kt possible Wednesday night.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Franks SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...Franks

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