Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 241141 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 641 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Precipitation will continue to move east out of the area this morning as surface low pressure also pulls east. Weak surface high pressure will then build into the area this afternoon. Rain chances return for Wednesday as another low pressure system approaches the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Weak inverted trough axis is currently moving out of the area this morning taking the weak band of light rain/ drizzle east with it. During the afternoon today weak surface high pressure will move overhead allowing for a dry afternoon. Low level moisture in NAM and GFS forecast soundings remains though with some hints of partial clearing shown. With 850 mb temperatures and 1000/850 mb thicknesses slowly climbing expect high temperatures in the mid to upper 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Tonight surface low pressure will move into Iowa with WAA commencing in the low levels. It looks like that most of Wednesday morning before sunrise will remain dry as the best isentropic upglide will be in Michigan. Forecast soundings also indicate a good amount of dry air remaining across the area. Wednesday afternoon a warm front will wash north across the area allowing dewpoints to rise into the middle 40s. At the same time a LLJ will begin to move overhead. Looking at the GFS/ ECMWF/ NAM low level convergence doesn`t look overtly impressive. Still though the GFS and ECMWF have some light precip forming. For now have left a low chance of precipitation in the forecast for Wednesday afternoon as forecast soundings on the NAM and GFS don`t fully saturate (dry air intrusion ~800 mb). The surface low will then head east across central Michigan dragging a cold front across the area Wednesday evening. Global models are in fairly good agreement with having the front approaching the IN/ OH border around 0z Thursday. The cold front is then forecasted to push through the entire area by 6z Thursday. Rain chances with the frontal passage itself look only slightly better as western zones again have dry air present in forecast soundings. Further east forecast soundings do saturate up to around 600 mb or so so have kept higher chances of precipitation east. Thursday morning behind the cold front, temperatures will begin to fall with 850 mb temperatures collapsing to around 6 degrees below zero (GFS has warm air lagging slightly further behind compared to NAM/ ECMWF). The net result of this will be steepening low level lapse rates. Also low level moisture will be on the increase meaning the chance of snow showers will return to the area. Thursday afternoon surface temperatures will likely be above freezing but given 850 mb temperatures approaching 8 degrees below zero have kept the p-type mostly snow (possible a rain/ snow mix across the far southeast). Thursday night into Friday morning the upper level low that brought the surface cold front through the area will pull northeast with heights rising out across the western United States. This will allow a couple of pieces of energy to continue to pull south while also keeping temperatures near normal Friday morning. Snow showers should diminish in coverage Thursday night into Friday morning but with lapse rates remaining steep have kept the chance of precipitation in the forecast. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A broad upper level trough will be in place across the eastern United States through the weekend. Several weak embedded short waves within the broader trough will drop down across the Great Lakes region Friday into Saturday. The combination of these and continued cold cyclonic low level flow will result in the threat of at least a few snow showers Friday and Saturday so will allow for some slight chance pops at times both days. A stronger short wave will help sharpen up the trough heading into Sunday which will likely lead to some better chances of snow showers through the end of the weekend. Expect dry conditions for Monday as mid level short wave ridging briefly builds across the area. With the upper level trough and a cooler airmass in place, temperatures will remain a few degrees below normal trough the end of the period with highs mainly in the low to mid 30s. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Widespread IFR cigs are persisting across the region this morning along with some areas of drizzle and fog occasionally reducing visibilities into IFR category. The 0-2 km RH is forecast to improve from west to east through the mid to late morning hours. This should allow for the drizzle to gradually taper off. Cigs will then slowly rise into MVFR category as we head into this afternoon. Weak high pressure will build into the region late this afternoon and then push quickly off to the east overnight. As the low level flow begins to back around to the southwest late in the day, the MVFR cigs should begin to scatter out from the southwest with mainly VFR conditions then expected through the remainder of the TAF period. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Wednesday night through Saturday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...Haines SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...JGL

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