Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 310800 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 400 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will cross the area today, bringing a good chance for showers and thunderstorms. After the front travels south of the region tonight, high pressure and a dry airmass will build in through the weekend. Cooler than normal temperatures accompanying the high will gradually warm to near normal by Sunday as the high shifts east.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Cold front is over northwest Indiana early this morning. The front will be pushed to the ILN area today by a northwest flow aloft ahead of a sharpening upper trough. Showers and thunderstorms will develop in moisture convergence along the front, especially from Dayton to Columbus this afternoon as instability builds with peak heating. Chance for severe thunderstorms in a moderately unstable regime will be limited by rather weak wind fields associated with the front. Still expect a few strong wind gusts with some of the thunderstorms, and heavy downpours may occur in an environment containing close to 2 inches precipitable water. High temperatures are forecast to be range from the lower 80s north to the upper 80s south.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Chance of showers and a few thunderstorms will persist early tonight as the front moves to Kentucky. Eastern locations being closer to the main body of moisture and forcing will have a higher chance for measurable precip. Precip chances will diminish to nil by Thursday morning as drier air filters in on a northerly low level flow. High pressure at the surface and aloft will then follow the upper trough to the Great Lakes. The dry airmass accompanying the high will keep precip out of the picture Thursday through Friday. Cold advection in the circulation around the high will lead to the first below normal temperatures in over a week, with highs mainly in the 70s both Thursday and Friday.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Surface high pressure will settle in across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Friday night into Saturday. It will be dry with temperatures at first a little bit below normal on Friday with temperatures modifying to near normal on Saturday. For the remainder of the extended, Sunday through Tuesday, quiet weather is expected as a mid level ridge builds over the region while a closed mid level low rotates off the Atlantic seaboard. This "blocky" pattern will provide dry weather with a gradual warming trend. Highs in the 80s on Sunday will warm into the upper 80s to around 90 by Monday and Tuesday. These readings will be about 10 degrees above normal for early September. It will be great weather to end the unofficial last weekend of summer while greeting meteorological fall.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Convection that developed northwest of the TAF sites during the afternoon, continues to dissipate with only a few sprinkles from a mid deck remaining. This weakening trend will continue through the early morning as the precipitation encounters a less favorable environment. Therefore, expect an increase in mid and high level clouds through the overnight hours. Winds will be light once again but the increased cloud cover should help mitigate widespread dense fog development. Have only a mention of MVFR visibility restrictions at KLUK toward sunrise. A cold front will sag down across our area today. The combination of this and daytime destabilization will lead to scattered thunderstorm development from late morning through the afternoon. Have selected the best time for storms in a tempo group with VFR cigs continuing. In the wake of the front, expect decreasing clouds tonight as surface high pressure begins to build in from the north. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...Hickman AVIATION...AR

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