Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 241718
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
118 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016
A dry pattern is expected today into Wednesday as high pressure
builds from the northwest. A potent low pressure system tracking
across the Great Lakes will bring the likelihood for showers and
maybe a thunderstorm Wednesday night into Thursday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
24.12Z KILN sounding showed the airmass we`ll be in today in the
wake of the strong cold front which has shifted east of the area.
Deep dry air above the boundary layer /below normal PWAT per
sounding climo/ will favorably mix to the surface on cold
advection this afternoon under plenty of sunshine. Going forecast
was on track and only cosmetic adjustments to sky cover and temps
/allowing for a little cooler air mainly southern half of the
forecast area/. Raised wind gusts a little as well in favored
terrain areas as north/northeast winds will be a little gusty
through peak heating.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will settle down over the region tonight in nw flow
aloft. Skies should be mostly clear and winds will be light. A few
cirrus might try to filter in towards sunrise in the w. The good
radiational cooling conditions should allow temperatures to fall
in the upper 30s for much over the region. Some of the normal cold
spots could drop down into the mid 30s. Nrn KY counties could
stay in in the lower 40s. Expect some frost development tonight.
Will hold off on any advisory as it should be patchy except for
the colder locations.
Clouds will be on the increase Tuesday as isentropic lift brings
high clouds into the region. Highs Tuesday will be limited by the
cool start and by the increasing cloud cover, so kept them in the
mid 50s to lower 60s.
Tuesday night will remain dry as H5 ridge reaches the Ohio Valley.
Mid and high clouds will continue to thicken as the isentropic
Fast moving H5 s/w will swing out of the plains and into the
lower Ohio Valley Wednesday. The consensus of the models is for
the region to stay dry Wednesday, so delayed the pcpn chances
until Wednesday Night. Highs on Wednesday will see a large range
across the region. Extreme sw portions of nrn KY could make the
upper 60s, with srn Oh and se IN making the mid 60s. Meanwhile
across West Central Ohio and Central Ohio temperatures will stay
in the upper 50s.
Low pressure system and cdfnt push through the region Wednesday
night. Went with likely pops across the n, but kept chance pops
for the extreme srn counties. Instability is marginal across the
area with this system. Did add slight chance of thunder to the nw
counties for the first few hours of Wednesday night.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Precipitation to end from west to east Thursday with highs from
the upper 50s north to the middle 60s south.
Surface high pressure to build in at the end of the week, offering a
return to dry weather conditions. Highs to range from the upper 50s
north to the mid 60s south.
Next surface low to approach the area later Saturday. Model solns
showing differences in strength and timing. Have held off any
precipitation until late Saturday night. On warm side of this system
and back side of retreating surface high pressure expect
temperatures to be a few degree above normal. Saturdays highs to
range from the lower 60s far north to the upper 60s south. Will
spread pops across the entire FA Saturday when the low and
associated front is expected to impact the area. Have opted to go
with more progressive solution ending precipitation Sunday but if the
system is slower then pops will be required.
.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Light-moderate nwly breezes in the wake of the cold front will
continue across the TAF sites through about 22Z before the
boundary layer begins to stabilize with the onset of nocturnal
cooling. Diurnally enhanced cumulus field /most prevalent in
central Ohio near CMH/LCK/ is VFR in nature with cigs generally
lifting to about 4500 ft by the end of the afternoon. Should see
rapid clearing for most sites by sunset as high pressure builds
in. Backing flow already in the mid-levels later tonight will
spill some sct/bkn 120-150kft clouds across the sites around
sunrise and through the day on Tuesday. Winds to decrease quickly
tonight and could go calm many locations later tonight before
picking back up out of the east or northeast Tuesday morning.
Did include a few hours of IFR fog at LUK later tonight...focused
mainly on the sunrise hours. Given the antecedent dry boundary
layer...expect this to be a purely advective event off the Little
Miami River on NE flow and late in the night...and should be
shallow/brief in nature. Considered not including it at all - but
signal in fcst soundings and pattern climo for LUK is rather good.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible from
Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon.
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