Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 221731 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 131 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A mid-level ridge of high pressure will set up over the Great Lakes and remain stagnant into early next week. Weather conditions are expected to be generally dry, with temperatures above normal through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... There has been little change to the weather setup over the past day or so, with quite a bit of moisture in the boundary layer and just above, and a decent amount of dry air above 600mb. The model consensus for T/Td continues to run a little low, and based on current trends this morning, values for both parameters were increased somewhat through today -- allowing virtually the entire ILN CWA a forecast of 90 degrees. There is reason to believe that, like yesterday, the above should be enough to break the cap in isolated locations -- and this appears most likely to occur in the southwestern ILN CWA, where there appears to be the greatest moisture overall, in addition to some weak 850mb convergence. A low-end PoP was added through diurnal timing for the southwestern quadrant of the forecast area. Previous discussion > A weak pressure gradient remains across the area with some light shower formation across the southwest. Another warm and humid day looks likely this afternoon as mid-level ridging continues to amplify over the Great Lakes. 850 mb temperatures will be similar today compared to yesterday (~ 17 degrees C) with low level thicknesses around 1415 m. Given the almost identical pattern have raised high temperatures close to or at 90 degrees for most locations. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... During the day Saturday mid-level ridging will center over Michigan with 850 mb temperatures holding around 18 degrees C. 1000/ 850 mb thicknesses do rise to around 1420 m while PWATs slowly tick down towards 1.00". Given the lower PWATs, forecast soundings don`t show much in the way of daytime CU and therefore am expecting mostly clear skies. Another day of high temperatures near 90 degrees looks likely Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A broad upper level high centered over the Great Lakes on Sunday will gradually break down and shift slowly southeast through the first part of the upcoming work week. With a relatively dry airmass in place, this will lead to a continuation of mainly dry conditions. Temperatures will also remain well above normal through at least Tuesday with high temperatures each day in the mid to upper 80s. Some differences remain between the GFS and the ECMWF as to the timing and strength of short wave energy moving into the region through mid week, with the ECMWF still faster and a little stronger than the GFS. This will eventually lead to an increasing chance of pcpn Wednesday into Thursday along with a return to more normal temperatures by the end of the long term period. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, with calm or very light winds. Diurnal cumulus today will dissipate, and skies should remain clear to mostly clear through tomorrow. Fog appears less likely tonight than the past few days, so visibility restrictions were not included in the TAFs. The exception is for valley fog (MVFR/IFR) at KLUK. There is a very slight chance of a shower developing this afternoon at KDAY/KCVG/KLUK but much too low to include in the forecast. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...Haines/Hatzos SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Hatzos

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