Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 031303 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 903 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND THEN WEAKEN AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO OHIO WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW CUTS OFF OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTH. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST TO THE CAROLINAS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWER AND DRIZZLE ACTIVITY HAS OVERSPREAD NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA THIS MORNING. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY THAT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS OHIO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...WILL HANG ON TO A LITTLE DRIZZLE ACROSS PRIMARILY THE NORTH INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE CLOUDS...WILL ALSO GO AHEAD AND NUDGE DOWN TEMPERATURES A BIT WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS THE INITIAL VORT MAX WITH THE S/W MOVES NE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS EVENING...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING AND ELONGATING WITH A N-S AXIS OVER THE IN/OH BORDER. THE REGION WILL BE IN GENERAL DOWNWARD MOTION IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER S/W...AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FOUND THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...THE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL STRENGTHENING L/W TROUGH WHICH SHOULD CUTOFF OVER NORTHERN INDIANA IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY AND WITH THE BROAD AND DEEP LIFT PRESENTED WITH THE STACKED LOW SYSTEM...THUNDER MAY ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS THE REGION WILL BE COOL AND NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF HEATING. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER 60S TODAY AND THEN REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR WED AND THURS. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR 50 TONIGHT AND THEN REMAIN IN THE 40S FOR THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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SOME MODEL SOLN TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP IN HANDLING THE UPPER LOW BUT THE GENERAL TREND CONTINUES TO TAKE IT OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY. SOME MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...HEIGHT RISES AND SFC HIGH TO BUILD IN SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER DURG THE DAY AND A MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO RANGE FROM NEAR 70 NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. E-W SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE REGION NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY FROM THE NORTH. HAVE CHC POPS FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. HIGHS SUNDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS TO OUR WEST WITH REMNANTS OF SFC FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FRONT WITH HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75.
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&& .AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... BROAD H5 TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL SHEAR OUT TO THE E TODAY. AREA OF MVFR CIGS HAS NOSED INTO THE WRN TAFS FROM INDIANA THIS MORNING. DIURNAL HEATING WILL SLOWLY MIX THE CIGS UP TO VFR BY AFTERNOON. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS HAVE AFFECTED THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR THEM TO CONTINUE INTO THE DAY. FEEL THAT THE COVERAGE WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS HOWEVER. WEAK SFC RIDGING DEVELOPS THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP H5 TROF ARRIVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AHEAD OF A CDFNT WILL PUSH INTO CVG DURING THE 30 HOUR TAF WINDOW. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...SITES

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