Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 061140 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 640 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COLD BUT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SNOW CHANCE OF FLURRIES TO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AXIS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. WITH THE CALM WINDS...THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS DECOUPLED AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OR BELOW ZERO. AS THE RIDGE AXIS DROPS SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK TO THE SOUTH...THIS WONT HELP TEMPERATURES WARM AS THEY TYPICALLY WOULD. SUNSHINE HOWEVER WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 20S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AT THE SFC...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH DROPS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT. NW FLOW ALOFT HOWEVER WILL BRING A S/W ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAJORITY OF THE MODELS KEEP THE PCPN TO THE N OF THE FA DUE TO THE WEAK LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT THE GFS IS PRODUCING SOME QPF ACROSS THE REGION. FEEL ANY CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWERED PCPN DOWN TO A CHANCE OF FLURRIES SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK CDFNT/TROF. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN FOR SUNDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS AS CLOUD COVER HELPS KEEP THE DAYTIME HEATING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 30S FOR SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY SOME SOUTHERN LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AFTER AN ACTIVE BEGINNING TO MARCH...THE EXTENDED WILL BE MORE TRANQUIL. WEAK SYSTEMS WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY WEEK. ATTM...WE SHOULD SEE JUST CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THERMALLY IN THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT HIGHS/LOWS EARLY ON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE A GOOD SNOW PACK IS IN PLACE. THIS CALLS FOR USING A GENERAL BLEND OF MODELS WHICH HAVE HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 40S AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 20S. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CONFLUENT BY MID WEEK AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A SPRAWLING AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. AGAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THIS MEANS THAT HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 50S WITH SOME 60S POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S. THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DISAGREE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. ECMWF IS STILL TRYING TO EJECT UPR LVL ENERGY FROM THE SRN STREAM WHILE THE GFS WANTS TO PUSH A WEAK FRONT THROUGH WITH A MORE DOMINATING NW FLOW PATTERN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH LATER MODEL RUNS. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VALLEY FOG ON THE OHIO IS PUSHING KLUK TO VLIFR AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO UNTIL WINDS BEGIN TO MIX THINGS UP. A H5 S/W WILL PASS OVER THE AREA AND HELP SOME MOISTURE SITUATED FROM 1-2KFT CONDENSE INTO A BKN CLOUD DECK OVER NORTHERN TAF SITES. SOUTHERN TAF SITES MAY ONLY SEE THIS CLOUD DECK BRIEFLY AND HAVE USED TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR KILN AND LEFT OUT LOWER CLOUDS AT CVG/LUK. ANY LOWER CIGS WILL CLEAR OUT BEFORE 0Z AS THE UPPER LEVEL SOURCE OF LIFT EXITS. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EXTENSIVE SNOW PACK OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN INCREASED MOISTURE OFF THE DECK AND A 1-2KFT DECK IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AT ALL SITES THIS TIME TOMORROW AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...FRANKS

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