Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 221048 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 648 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. IT WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT. OUTSIDE OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LOW STRATUS DECK IS OVER THE REGION WITH A NARROW CUTOFF TO CLEAR SKIES FOUND OVER MOST OF INDIANA. THE INTERFACE BETWEEN LOW CLOUDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MEANDER SLOWLY EAST TODAY...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY UNIFORM IN THE MIDDLE 50S. A LIGHT SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL OHIO AND THE SCIOTO VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A CALM NIGHT TO THE REGION. COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES...A GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IS IN THE OFFING TONIGHT AND AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS LOWS DROP TO THE MID 30S. LIGHT NORTH FLOW IN GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BRING A NICE FALL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON THURSDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT...BUT EASTERN CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES AND HAVE LIGHT WINDS FOR A POTENTIAL FROST REPEAT ON FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS GENERALLY LOCATED EAST AND SOUTH OF METRO COLUMBUS...AND FROM BROWN AND MASON COUNTIES EASTWARD TO THE SCIOTO VALLEY. A BRIEF SPRINKLE MAY FALL FROM THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EARLY ON FRIDAY...BUT THE REGION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY AND THE CHANCES AND/OR AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS POSSIBILITY ARE BOTH SMALL. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EACH DAY AFTER THURSDAY WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE. ./SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS THE AREA AND GETS ABSORBED...BUT THE 12Z MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEFINITION TO HAVE SOME IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AS WELL. WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...IT STILL SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA) WILL REMAIN DRY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 925MB/850MB WILL COMBINE WITH FULL SUN TO LEAD TO WARMING SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE. STAGNANT SURFACE CONDITIONS IN A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS AN ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. AFTER THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ENTER A REGIME OF DEEPER SSW FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER WARMING OF TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S VERY POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY. AS RIDGING TURNS TO TROUGHING GOING FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGINS TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. WITH THAT SAID...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THOUGH ADMITTEDLY THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOT AS SHARP WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL COME INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...REQUIRING SOME DAY 8 POPS AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS THE AREA AND GETS ABSORBED...BUT THE 12Z MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEFINITION TO HAVE SOME IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AS WELL. WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...IT STILL SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA) WILL REMAIN DRY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 925MB/850MB WILL COMBINE WITH FULL SUN TO LEAD TO WARMING SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE. STAGNANT SURFACE CONDITIONS IN A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS AN ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. AFTER THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ENTER A REGIME OF DEEPER SSW FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER WARMING OF TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S VERY POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY. AS RIDGING TURNS TO TROUGHING GOING FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGINS TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. WITH THAT SAID...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THOUGH ADMITTEDLY THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOT AS SHARP WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL COME INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...REQUIRING SOME DAY 8 POPS AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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CLOSED H5 LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SOUTH DOWN THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE EAST COAST TODAY. NORTHERLY SFC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS UP AROUND 10 KTS. CIGS ACROSS THE TAFS REMAIN VARIABLE. GIGS REMAINS VFR...WITH A HOLE IN THE SC JUST TO ITS NORTH. ELSEWHERE CIGS ARE MVFR. EXPECT THE HOLE IN THE CLOUDS TO FILL AS THE SUN HITS IT. CIGS AT CVG/LUK SHOULD BE VFR. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO SCATTERED BY LATE MORNING. AT DAY/ILN MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER FOR THE MORNING UNTIL THE CLEARING REACHES AROUND NOON. FINALLY IN THE E...MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL AFFECT CMH/LCK EARLY...BEFORE THE CIGS GRADUALLY RISE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS WONT REACH CMH/LCK UNTIL LATE AFTN. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING SOME TO FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY AT LUK/ILN. .OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...SITES

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