Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 282350 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 650 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLIP BELOW NORMAL AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES ON A NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS EARLY IN FAR SOUTHEAST FOR LINGERING RAIN ALONG DEPARTING BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH A BROAD EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN ON A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. CLOUDS SHOULD SHOW A DECREASING TREND OVERNIGHT...THOUGH PERHAPS NOT AS QUICKLY AS SUGGESTED BY A MODEL BLEND. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED UNDER A DOME OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE FAR TO THE WEST...DROPPING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW COLD ADVECTION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON A NORTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S...DECREASING TO AVERAGE IN THE LOWER 30S FOR TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS HIGH SHOULD KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THE 12Z MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE EJECTION OF ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND HAVE ALSO TENDED TO TRACK THE RESULTING SURFACE LOW FARTHER SOUTH. THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALMOST TAKES ON AN OMEGA BLOCK APPEARANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WOULD LEND CREDIBILITY TO A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE DOWNSTREAM SYSTEM. THIS FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION AS IT IS SLOWER THAN THE 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF...BUT NOT AS DRAMATICALLY SLOWED AS THE 12Z ECMWF. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...FRIDAY POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SINCE THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MORE TOWARD FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW OR A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE SOME INDICATIONS OF FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IS STILL IN PLAY FOR INCLUSION IN THIS PACKAGE. SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD TURN TO RAIN ON SATURDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS IS MAINTAINED SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FORECAST CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE HOW FAST MVFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK ERODES AND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. MODELS...AS IS TYPICAL WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...OFFER VARYING SOLUTIONS. BELIEVE DRIER AIR WILL TRY TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. IN ADDITION...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALSO ALLOW CLOUDS TO SCATTER. HAVE THIS OCCURRING BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z. THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF KCVG/KLUK MAY END UP STAYING LONGER IN THE MVFR CLOUD DECK AND IF THIS OCCURS...WILL AMEND ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...SOME HIGHER LEVEL CIRRUS WILL MOVE ACRS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND HEATING OF THE DAY THAT SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP NEAR KCMH/KLCK. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM. WE SHOULD SEE A MIX OF SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS AND SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 00Z AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE EAST OVER THE SURFACE RIDGE. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...SHOBE2 AVIATION...HICKMAN

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