Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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873 FXUS61 KILN 200233 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 933 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will push off to the east through tonight. Developing southerly flow will lead to a warming trend through the weekend, along with a chance of rain Saturday night into Sunday. A better chance of rain will overspread the region through the day on Monday as a cold front approaches from the west. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Skies are mainly clear with some increase in cirrus noted well ahead of low pressure developing on the lee side of the Rocky Mountains. Meanwhile, the surface pressure gradient should stay tight enough tonight to limit decoupling and help keep winds up somewhat. This is making a tricky temperature forecast with mainly clear skies early, snow still on the ground, and some question about how fast/much the winds will decrease. Will generally keep lows tonight from the upper 20s in the northeast to the lower 30s in the southwest. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/... Southwest low level flow will continue through the day on Saturday. The models are in decent agreement bringing some better low level moisture in from the southwest through the afternoon. Initially the low level moisture is fairly shallow, but it will gradually saturate near and below 850 mb through Saturday evening. Forcing is pretty minimal, but given the weak WAA, this may be enough to produce a few light showers and/or drizzle. Will cover it at this point with a slight chance of rain developing later Saturday afternoon and then increasing into chance category Saturday night. In the WAA pattern, highs on Saturday will be in the low to mid 40s with lows Saturday night in the mid to upper 30s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface low to develop over the central plains with the Ohio Valley in the warm sector. Weak isentropic lift may lead to a few rain showers Sunday. Will limit pops to chance category with the best chance north. Expect temperatures to be around 10 degrees above normal, with highs Sunday from the mid 40s north to the lower 50s south. Mid/upper level low and deepening surface low to eject northeast from the plains into the upper MS VLY Monday and the Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday. Moisture increases across the area ahead of an associated surface cold front that sweeps east through the area Monday night. Will continue to ramp pops up to categorical Monday. On the warm side of the system, temperatures look to be 10 to 15 degrees above normal with highs Monday from near 50 northwest to the upper 50s southeast. With upper low tracking through the Great Lakes, a chance of precipitation will linger into Tuesday with rain changing to snow. The best chance will occur across the north counties, closer to the upper lows. Temperatures turn closer to normal with highs Tuesday from the mid 30s northwest to the lower 40s southeast. In the wake of this system surface high pressure to build across the region In the Wed/Thu time frame. This feature will provide dry weather for the middle of next week. Temperatures will continue close to normal with Wednesdays highs from the mid 30s north to the lower 40s south. Temperatures will moderate slightly Thursday with highs from the upper 30s north to the mid 40s south. A southerly flow will develop on the backside of retreating high pressure for the end of the week. Moisture will increase with a chance of rain developing later Friday. Temperatures to warm up above normal with highs from the mid 40s northwest to the lower 50s southeast. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Conditions are VFR to start with high pressure centered to the south. As the high pushes slowly east toward the Atlantic Coast, wind shear is expected for a few hours tonight on the nose of a low level jet forming to the southwest. Moisture advecting on the strong southwesterly flow at 925mb will begin to affect TAF sites on Saturday afternoon, when MVFR ceilings are forecast to develop. Surface wind gusts over 20 knots will be possible. CVG should see lowering MVFR ceilings and subsiding winds near the end of their 30 hour TAF. Rain may not affect TAF sites until Monday. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible into Sunday night. MVFR ceilings and visibilities in rain along with wind gusts to 25kt possible Monday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...Coniglio/JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Coniglio

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