Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 202054 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 354 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL ALSO LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE CENTERED JUST OFF TO OUR WEST BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LINGERING CU/STROTOCUMULAUS ACROSS OUR NORTH TO DISSIPATE THROUGH HS EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH DECREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT...EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME HELP FROM THE LINGERING SNOW COVER. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO THE MID TEENS SOUTHEAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD. DESPITE THE SUN...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH TO LOW AND MIDDLE 30S SOUTH. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS....MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME LIGHT QPF WILL SNEAK INTO AT LEAST OUR WESTERN AREAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING ACROSS OUR NORTH THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. BIG QUESTION WILL BE SURFACE TEMPS AS WE WILL LIKELY DROP OFF QUICKLY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY EVENING...AND THEN SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT GIVEN INCREASING CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING WAA. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE AT PCPN ONSET...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE BELOW FREEZING. WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT QUICKLY INCREASING ABOVE 3 DEGREES CELSIUS...THE POSSIBILITY WILL EXIST FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH ABOVE FREEZING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANY REMAINING PCPN ACROSS THE NORTH FALLING AS RAIN SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN FAIRLY AMPLIFIED...WITH A RETURN OF THE FAMILIAR MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS COVERING A LARGE PORTION OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THE AXIS OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY...PROVIDING FOR A PERIOD OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS THE STORM TRACK OVER THE REGION REMAINS BASED ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL CHANGE BY LATER ON MONDAY...AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...PUTTING TEMPERATURES BACK ON THE COLDER SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN. MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY IS STRONG...THOUGH THE 12Z SUITE HAS ALLOWED FOR A SLIGHT SLOWING IN TIMING. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NNE FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS ROUGHLY THE SAME TRAJECTORY. A SLOWER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BEHIND THIS FEATURE...SETTLING OVER THE GREAT LAKES A DAY OR SO LATER. A SOLID BAND OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE ILN CWA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE HEALTHY BUT SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY NEAR OR UNDER AN INCH...AND TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO WARM FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION AT ONSET...AND TOO COOL FOR INSTABILITY AND THUNDER (EVEN ELEVATED). CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST AND THIS WILL BE ABLE TO BE INCREASED TO 100 PERCENT ONCE THE TIMING IS LOCKED ON FROM RUN TO RUN. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM ADVECTION AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENS...TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY HAVE BEEN RAISED BY A COUPLE DEGREES. CHANCES FOR SPOTTY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER POTENT COLD FRONT CROSSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET WARM...WITH 60S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES NON-DIURNALLY AS IT MOVES EAST...WITH DRY AIR BEHIND IT PUTTING AN END TO CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. GFS/ECMWF PROJECTIONS LOOK GUSTY (20-30 KNOTS) BEHIND THE FRONT...EVEN THOUGH THE DIRECTION OF THE FLOW ONLY CHANGES SLIGHTLY FROM SSW TO WSW. A WEAK WAVE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT RUN-TO-RUN DISCONTINUITY WITH THIS SYSTEM. POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT TO SLIGHT CHANCE. WHAT APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN IS THAT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST. IN LOW LEVEL CAA AND CYCLONIC FLOW EXPECT VFR CIGS AROUND 3500 FEET TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS VLY TO BUILD ESE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THIS HIGH BUILDS IN SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN. STRONG WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 27 KTS THIS AFTN DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILD LIGHTEN UP QUITE A BIT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SE AT LESS THAN 10 KTS ON FRIDAY. OUTLOOK...VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...AR

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