Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 032351 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 751 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT ON TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE SHOULD KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING WET CONDITIONS BACK INTO THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKED AT LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING FROM CVG (17Z) AND THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CAP IN PLACE AT 850MB. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL LIFT ALSO APPEARS TO BE OFF TO THE EAST. THERE REMAINS A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ABOVE THE CAP THOUGH. GFS SOUNDINGS ARE FORECASTING CAPE VALUES AROUND 2800 J/KG. NAM IS SHOWING VALUES AROUND 4000 J/KG. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE DOING THE BEST WITH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG. GFS SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWED SOME OF A CAP IN PLACE. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY STRETCHED JUST NORTH OF AN INDIANAPOLIS TO WAPAKONETA LINE AND WILL PROVIDE THE SOURCE OF LIFT AND THINKING IS THAT COVERAGE WILL START TO INCREASE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE CAP IS ABLE TO BE MODIFIED. THERE IS ALSO SOME STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WHICH WILL SUPPORT TITLED UPDRAFTS AND CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SPC HAS THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK. && .SHORT TERM /2 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... TUESDAY MORNING LEFTOVER RAIN WILL BE EXITING OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL THEN BE FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. PWATS ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE FORECASTED TO FALL NEAR 0.75" BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER THE QUEBEC/ ONTARIO BORDER WITH SOUTHWEST OHIO FALLING IN THE COVERGENT REGION OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECASTED TO REMAIN AROUND 15 DEGREEES C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY KEEPING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING WILL ALSO REMAIN STALLED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE NAM PUSHES THE FRONT SLOWLY NORTH A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE GFS AND EURO AND THEREFORE BRINGS IN RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY SOONER THAN THE GFS AND EURO. GIVEN THE LOW PWAT AIR HAVE LEANED TOWARDS WEDNESDAY BEING DRY AS PER THE EURO AND GFS. POPS WILL THEN QUICKLY INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE AT 500 MB APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PWATS ALSO START TO QUICKLY INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO RESIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AT 12Z. GFS/NAM SUGGEST LIFT MAY ALREADY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AT THAT TIME...WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO LEADING TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT /LINKED TO A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE/ MAY ALLOW THE FRONT TO LIFT SOMEWHAT NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. AM NOT SURE HOW FAR NORTH THIS BOUNDARY WILL GET...AND THIS WILL HELP DETERMINE IF ANY PORTION OF THE CWA /SOUTHERN?/ COULD EXPERIENCE SEVERE WEATHER. FOR NOW...FORECAST REFLECTS BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE RAINFALL. IN FACT...THERE WILL BE A CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING DURING THE THURSDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. AS THE WAVE DEPARTS...FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO FRIDAY. WILL ALLOW POPS TO LOWER FROM NW TO SE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. CONSENSUS LEANS TOWARDS A DRY FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE AREA ON THE NEW DAY 7 MONDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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ONGOING CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF CVG/LUK WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...ALONG WITH THE ISOLATED CELL NW OF CMH. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND WILL GO W TO NW. WINDS SHOULD BECOME CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THE CONVECTION DISSIPATES. SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...AS SOME FAIR WEATHER CU DEVELOPS OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAINES NEAR TERM...HAINES SHORT TERM...HAINES LONG TERM...BPP AVIATION...SITES

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