Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 292013 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 413 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary will remain across the region through much of the weekend, leading to chances for showers and thunderstorms at times. High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the Ohio Valley on Monday and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Weak frontal boundary stretching from southern IL to northern OH continues to trigger scattered convection across the region this afternoon. Once again this afternoon conditions are favorable for a few brief needlelike funnel clouds to develop: stationary boundary, very weak wind shear and low level winds, steep low- level lapse rates, and rich low-level moisture. Have this mentioned in HWO but will consider an SPS if we start seeing/receiving funnel reports. MLCAPEs are around 1000 J/kg, but mid-level lapse rates are providing some limit to storm strength this afternoon. Would not rule out a stronger storm with gusty winds through early evening, but overall severe threat will be limited. With rather weak upper flow and a rich supply of low- level moisture (PWATs around 1.7"), storms have been slow-moving and producing heavy rainfall. This will lead to a continued localized flooding threat through this evening, when storms are expected to diminish in coverage. Held on to a chance/slight chance of showers and storms overnight as some shortwave energy pushes through the region. There will be a chance for fog and low stratus development once again later tonight with lows ranging from the mid 60s north to upper 60s south. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... With the boundary still lingering over the region this weekend and a broad upper trough moving in, expect a few rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Most of this will be diurnally driven, and Saturday looks like the wetter and cloudier of the two days with better mid-level forcing. Weak mid-level lapse rates will again provide some limit to storm intensity. By Sunday night the upper trough axis will begin pushing east, and drier air will begin filtering into the region. Highs both Saturday and Sunday will be in the low to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Period begins with a weak H5 trof over the Great Lakes. In the localized nw flow, the models are dropping weak s/w into the region. The models are handling these weak disturbances differently and therefore are producing a variety of solution. The GEM hemispheric is the most aggressive as it drops a MCS thru IN and KY nicking the Tri-State region with pcpn. The GFS and to a less extent the 12Z ECMWF pop a little QPF along the Ohio River. The 00Z ECMWF was dry. Confidence is too low that the models have a handle on the situation so will continue to carry a 10 PoP in the south and less to across the nrn counties, therefore going dry. It looks like highs will be in the lower and mid 80s. H5 ridge builds in Monday night and Tuesday, which should keep the fa dry and mostly sunny. Temps will warm a couple of degrees with highs on Tuesday, into the mid and upper 80s. ECMWF continues to be the outlier, as it drops an MCS out of MN and down towards the fa Tuesday night, then bringing it across the fa Wednesday. The ECMWF has showing this for a couple of runs now. Will go with a 20 PoP to show the possibility. Hopefully future runs will bring the models into better agreement. Kept highs on Wednesday in the mid to upper 80s. Thursday looks like another dry day, then a cdfnt will start to drop towards the area for Friday. An increasingly unstable atmosphere with interact with the forcing from the front to bring a chance of thunderstorms on Friday. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and into the early evening hours. Better coverage early this afternoon will be across the northern TAF sites where there has been less cloud cover earlier in the day and more heating. As the afternoon progresses expect additional coverage across the southern TAF sites. With moist airmass in place fog and potentially some stratus will be possible again overnight tonight. Additional thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon with daytime heating. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday and Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kurz NEAR TERM...Kurz SHORT TERM...Kurz LONG TERM...Sites AVIATION...Novak

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