Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 190606 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 106 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A few rain showers will possible this afternoon and this evening across southern Ohio and northern Kentucky, as an upper level disturbance tracks through the Tennessee valley. Temperatures are expected to be 20 to 25 degrees above normal, today through Tuesday, with the next chance for rain showers Tuesday with the approach of a front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Light rain showers are persisting this evening across parts of northern Kentucky and south central Ohio. This is in an area of good mid level deformation. This is forecast to slowly weaken through the overnight hours but based on current trends, will go ahead and hang on to pcpn across our southeast at least into the early morning hours. Otherwise, the clearing line is currently running along/just northwest of the I-71 corridor. The models are fairly pessimistic overnight, saturating the very low levels. There is still some uncertainty on just how this will play out, whether it is overdone or else if it will be more fog or a low stratus deck that develops. Will hedge at this point and allow for the cloudy skies to push slowly north overnight and also include some patchy fog wording. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Sunday morning a weak cold front will approach the area from the northwest and stall. Ahead of the front winds will decrease with moisture pooling out in front. This will make for a cloudy night and Sunday morning. Lower PWAT air will then clip the CWA and briefly allow PWATs to fall to around 0.40" (on both NAM and GFS). Heights will then continue to rise as a broad upper level trough exits the area. 850 mb temperatures Sunday are around 8 degrees C which would again support high temperatures in the lower 60s. The only concern with how warm we will get Sunday will be how long clouds from the morning hang around. Overall have tempered high temperatures a bit for Sunday given the morning clouds. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The extended stretch of above normal temperatures will continue from Monday through Friday. Widespread temperatures in the 60s are expected with some isolated 70s also possible Monday, Tuesday, and Friday. A weak cold front will move through Tuesday allowing for some shower activity. A frontal boundary will meander around the area Thursday into Thursday night allowing for showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Winds will be gusty on Friday as the front lifts north and southerly flow increases. A strong cold front moves through Friday night. Thunderstorm activity will be possible Friday into Friday night with the front. This front will signal a chance to cooler conditions for Friday night into Saturday. Some very light snow cannot be ruled out on the back edge of this system and with some of the wrap around moisture. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Light rain showers associated with mid level deformation is exiting ILN/s southeast counties. These showers will remain to the southeast of the TAF sites as they push off to the east. The low level flow will veer northwest early this morning as a weak front sags down from the north. Numerical models are showing a saturation of the lower levels below about 1000 feet toward sunrise. Latest 11u-3.9u satl imagery shows low level clouds developing acrs portion of southern IL, southern IN, into western OH. Expect main impact from status due to mixy nature of boundary layer. Will allow for some IFR VSBY and CIG restrictions toward sunrise and into the morning hours. Expect drier air from the north to provide improving conditions during the late morning and afternoon hours. Some fog may be possible again late tonight into early Monday. At this time have limited any restriction to MVFR category. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible Tuesday and Thursday. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures Date CVG CMH DAY Sun 2/19 74(1939) 70(1939) 70(1939) Mon 2/20 72(1891/2016) 68(1891/2016) 69(2016) Tue 2/21 70(1930) 71(1997) 68(1930) && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...AR CLIMATE...

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