Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 241802 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 102 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATED FORECAST IS OUT AND SLOWS THE FRONT/WIND IMPACTS DOWN BY AN HOUR OR TWO MOST AREAS IN LINE WITH RECENT NAM/RAP/HRRR RUNS. 14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES ELONGATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF SDF AND DEEPENING/DEVELOPING TOWARD RICHMOND INDIANA. THIS LOW IS MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH EXTENDS NWRD TOWARD TOL/DTW. SFC PRESSURES ARE NOTABLY HIGHER AT THIS HOUR THAN WHAT WAS PROVIDED VIA GUIDANCE YESTERDAY...WHICH CASTS EVENTUAL DOUBT ON STRENGTH OF WINDS /MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA/. PER SHORT RANGE CONSENSUS...SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES/DEVELOPS TO TOLEDO BY 18Z /995MB/ AND DTW BY 21Z /992MB/. THIS QUASI DUE NORTH MOVEMENT WILL DELAY FRONTAL ARRIVAL BY A FEW HOURS FROM PVS FORECAST BY AN HOUR OR TWO...NOTHING SIGNIFICANT...BUT DID PUSH BACK ONSET OF WIND ADVISORY IN THE SOUTH/WEST BY AN HOUR. WITH DEEPENING FORECAST TO BE AN IN-SITU PROCESS AS THE LOW PASSES THROUGH OHIO/MICH...ISALLOBARIC COUPLET WILL ALSO BE IN A MATURING PHASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ARCING NW-SE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE TRANSIENT LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER SERN IND/NRN KY FIRST AROUND 18Z AND THEN SURGE QUICKLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND EXIT BY 23Z. AN ORGANIZING BAND OF SHALLOW CONVECTION /MOST UNLIKELY ABLE TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING GIVEN RECENT RAP/HRRR FCST SOUNDINGS/ WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...GIVING ALL AREAS A COUPLE HOURS OF RAIN. AS NOTED ABOVE...SFC PRESSURES THROUGH MID EVENING ARE NOT AS DEEP AS PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD SHOWN...THUS MAGNITUDES OF ASSOCIATED WIND FIELDS AND ISALLOBARIC COUPLET ARE A NOTCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...AND ADMITTEDLY PUTS THE WIND ADVISORY IN JEOPARDY OF VERIFYING ESPECIALLY IN NRN KY/SERN IND/FAR SWRN OH. WILL RIDE WITH IT DUE TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TRANSFERRING SOME STRONGER GUSTS DOWN TO THE SURFACE...BUT POST-FRONTAL SOUNDINGS /RAP...HRRR...NAM/ AT CVG/ILN ARE NOT SUGGESTIVE THAT WINDS WILL REACH 45 MPH. FURTHER NORTH...STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR STRONG WINDS GIVEN MATURING ISALLOBARIC COUPLET...AND INCREASING GRADIENTS. LIKE WITH MOST WIND ADVISORY EVENTS...STRONGEST GUSTS ALL AREAS WILL RESIDE ON LEADING EDGE OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION WHERE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND WORK WITH SUBSIDENCE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT TO ALLOW FOR WINDS TO TRANSFER FROM ALOFT. LASTLY...HRRR HAS BEEN VERY STABLE IN INDICATING THE SHALLOW CONVECTIVE LINE WILL ATTAIN ITS GREATEST DEPTH/ORGANIZATION AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA /SCIOTO VALLEY AND CENTRAL OHIO/. IT IS HERE THAT SOME CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED GUSTS TO SEVERE LEVELS MAY BE SEEN...BUT BUOYANCY ON RAP/HRRR SOUNDINGS IS EXTREMELY MARGINAL AND TIED RIGHT TO THE FRONT...DESPITE TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 60S. MAY HAVE AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT IN OUR EASTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES IN THE 20Z-22Z TIMEFRAME. VERY NARROW WINDOW IN SPACE/TIME. COOLED HIGH TEMPS ALL AREAS JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES GIVEN CURRENT TEMPS AND TRENDS FROM HRRR/NAM/RAP. BIGGEST PUSH OF WARMTH WILL BE SCIOTO VALLEY OF OH AND NERN KY WHERE MID 60S POSSIBLE. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... ANY RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THESE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM TIME FRAME AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY IRRECONCILABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL MASS FIELDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP. GFS PUSHES FRONT THROUGH TO THE APPALACHIAN RIDGE AND THE EURO AND CANADIAN LINGER THE FRONT NW OF I-71 CORRIDOR IN NW CWA. THEY ALSO KEEP PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT WHICH IS IN DIRECT OPPOSITION TO GFS. OTHER MODELERS SEEM TO JUST BLEND OPPOSING SOLUTIONS TO COME TO MIDDLE GROUND. THIS METHOD JUST DOES NOT WORK AS A VIABLE WAY TO EVOLVE A LONGER RANGE FORECAST. TRIED TO WEIGHT THE FORECAST TOWARDS PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT KNOW THAT THE LONG RANGE WAS IN A SIMILAR SITUATION YESTERDAY. FOR AS OFF AS THE SURFACE FIELDS ARE IN THE MODELS...H5 AND LONGWAVE PATTERN IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A TROUGH IN THE PLAINS AND SW FLOW OVER THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. GFS BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND EURO DEEPENS THE TROUGH IN THE MIDWEST FOR THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS OF THE DIFFERENCES...IT IS REASONABLE TO ASSUME THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE REGION NEXT WEEK AND HELP USHER IN COLDER AIR FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LIES JUST WEST OF DAY/CVG AND WILL PASS THROUGH THESE TWO SITES IN THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS AFTER TAF ISSUANCE...AND THEN ACCELERATE EAST ACROSS LUK/ILN THROUGH 20Z AND THEN CMH/LCK BY 22Z. LGT-MOD SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN ABRUPTLY TO THE WEST AS THE FRONT PASSES WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTS IN ATTENDANT SHOWERS. THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS CONTINUES INTO EARLY-MIDDLE EVENING HOURS AS COLD AIR AND PRESSURE RISES SWEEP ACROSS THE TAF SITES...BEFORE WINDS SETTLE DOWN /BUT STILL GUSTY/ LATER IN THE NIGHT AND BACK TO THE SW. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THREAT FOR THUNDER PROBABLY MOST CONFINED TO LCK/CMH AND POSSIBLY ILN. SHOULD BE MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THE SHOWERS/FOG AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MOIST UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES. SHOULD SEE VSBY IMPROVE AS THE STRONGER WINDS/COLDER TEMPS ARRIVE AND SCOUR OUT THE FOG. CIGS WILL SHOULD REMAIN IFR /EXCEPT CENTRAL OHIO -- MVFR/ IN THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL REMAIN IFR FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL. EVENTUALLY...DRIER AIR/COLD ADVECTION WILL LIFT CIGS UP TO MVFR LEVELS LATER THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE. OUTLOOK...WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ060-061- 070>072-077>082-088. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051>056-062>065-073-074. KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100. IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059- 066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...BINAU SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM...FRANKS AVIATION...BINAU

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