Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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186 FXUS61 KILN 261001 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 601 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure and a dry airmass will lead to a continuation of unseasonably warm temperatures again today. A cold front will push through the region on Wednesday, leading to the possibility of a few showers. A much cooler airmass will then settle into the region through the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Skies are mostly clear across the area this morning and expect this to continue through much of the day as the mid level ridge remains in place across the region. Low level thermal fields this afternoon are fairly similar to what we saw on Monday so will again go with highs in the upper 80s to possibly the lower 90s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... The ridge will flatten out tonight into Wednesday as short wave energy begins to work down into the Great Lakes region. This will help push an associated cold front across our area through the day on Wednesday. Moisture is quite limited through the day and forcing is weak so think any pcpn will be pretty spotty. Will therefore limit pops to just slight chance and hold off on mentioning thunder as instability also remains marginal. Highs on Wednesday will range from the lower 80s in the northwest to the upper 80s across the southeast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Wednesday night a surface cold front will be moving through our southeastern zones with little in the way of precipitation expected. Late Wednesday night into Thursday morning the surface cold front will clear the forecast area with cooler and more seasonable weather moving into the region. It will feel much cooler outside as 850 mb temperatures plunge below 10 degrees C. Highs Thursday will be in the lower 70s with dewpoints falling into the upper 40s. Thursday afternoon models have been fairly consistent in showing a rex block forming out in the Western United States allowing a potent shortwave to dive southeast out of Manitoba and head towards Michigan. As this happens Friday, a reinforcing shot of cooler air will move into the region. Highs Friday will likely again be around 70 degrees with low level CAA by evening. Due to this, GFS forecast soundings not surprisingly show a saturated layer between 800 and 600 mb. The GFS also outputs some QPF Friday afternoon into evening, but appears to be overdone. The ECMWF and CMC show more of the QPF towards our north and east. For now have kept slight chance PoPs in for the central and northeastern zones while keeping the southwest dry. Have also kept CU in the forecast for Friday given the widespread CAA. Saturday morning the upper level shortwave will be heading east of the area with surface high pressure located over northern Michigan (inline with the upper level ageostrophic convergence). Over the last couple of days models have continued to slowly push the best upper level convergence north and east of the area. Lows will still likely be in the 40s Friday through Sunday, just not as cold as seen in previous model runs. Through the weekend mostly clear skies and seasonal temperatures will be the story as the forecast area lies on the back side of the upper level shortwave. Late Sunday through the remainder of the extended models quickly diverge on possible solutions as an upper level low moves across the Pacific Northwest. The GFS deepens the low and is more stagnant with the flow while amplifying an upper level ridge across the area. The ECMWF on the other hand has the low quickly pulling east across central Canada allowing ridging to build across the south/central United States. The GFS solution favors dry and warm weather at the end of the extended while the ECMWF favors warm weather with possible precipitation Tuesday as the area gets clipped from the upper level low heading east. For now have kept the area dry for the end of the extended while keeping a slow warming trend Monday into Tuesday. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Areas of fog, primarily in the river valleys (KLUK), will dissipate within the first hour or so of the TAF period. Otherwise, high pressure will remain in place across the region through this afternoon. Outside of a few cu and/or some cirrus at times, expected mostly clear conditions through the day. Some high level moisture will begin to spread in from the west tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. Generally expect VFR conditions through the remainder of the TAF period outside of some possible valley fog again later tonight, mainly affecting KLUK. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Haines AVIATION...JGL

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