Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 280549 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 149 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A slow-moving low pressure system and associated cold front will push south toward the Ohio River tonight. The low will then pivot to the northeast toward West Virginia as the cold front pushes south on Friday. High pressure will build in behind the departing low for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Low pressure over Indiana will sag slowly southeast toward the Tri-State region tonight. As this occurs, an associated cold front will also sag south toward the Ohio River. Showers continue to develop in the moist flow around the low. For tonight, we will see at least likely PoPs for southern locations as the low pivots toward the Ohio River. The airmass is very moist, PWATs over 2 inches, along with WCDs near 4.0 km. Therefore, the showers will be efficient rain producers. The threat for flooding and/or flash flooding is there, but should be more relegated/limited to where repeated rounds of heavy showers occur. The coverage of thunder is expected to be in the chance category. Thus, with limited coverage, will continue to mention heavy rainfall in the forecast with a mention for flooding in the HWO. With winds become light near the low, we will likely see some patchy fog as well. Lows will range from the mid 60s north to near 70 along and south of the Ohio River. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... An upper level s/wv is expected to close off as a mid level circulation over Ohio/Pennsylvania on Friday as it digs southeast. This will pull the low northeast toward West Virginia. We will see mostly cloudy skies on Friday with the best chance for showers, perhaps a rumble of thunder, over the eastern zones closer to the low pressure system. Highs will be held down due to clouds and the threat for pcpn, which should range from the mid to upper 70s. For Friday night, the mid level closed circulation will move slowly southeast. As this occur, the surface low will slowly pivot east/northeast. The threat for pcpn will come to an end from west to east along with a clearing trend from the west as well. Drier air will filter in on northerly flow. Lows will range from the mid 50s northwest to the lower 60s southeast. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Highly amplified mid/upper level flow pattern with ridge building over the west and trof over the east. This will place the Ohio Valley in a northwest flow pattern this weekend. Surface high pressure of Canadian origin will build southeast across the Great Lakes. This high will provide dry conditions and seasonably cool temperatures. Temperatures Saturday and Sunday look to be 5 to 10 degrees below normal, with highs generally in the mid and upper 70s. Dry weather to persist with some moderation to temperatures through the week. Expect highs by Wednesday close to normal and generally in the mid 80s. Next upper level trof to drop south across the Great Lakes late in the week. Some model solution timing differences exist regarding this feature. Have limited pops to low chance Thursday north and then increase chances across the Fa Thursday night into Friday with the approach of the associated surface front. && .AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Northeast winds will bring in cooler and generally moist air to the region this early morning, bringing some vsby restrictions but more importantly IFR to LIFR cigs when the higher clouds clear out, and be largely dependent on when those are not present this morning. Southern TAF sites will see a more variable wind but still northerly direction. Stronger winds will not be advecting the more moist air to these sites as the surface low pressure center is progged to develop along the Ohio River this morning. This surface low and battling airmasses will be a focus for shower development, and possibly a thunderstorm. However, the system may be a bit more progressive than is being shown on a number of solutions, and push further south as the northeast winds continue and strengthen through the rest of the morning. Did not include showers or thunderstorms in the forecast. Would like to see how, if, and particularly where these storms may develop this morning. All indications are that they would not affect the TAF sites along the I-70 corridor between Dayton and Columbus, and would likely spare ILN and possibly only skim the southern TAF sites of CVG and LUK. Wind will pick up this late afternoon and see some sustained 15kt with gusts 20-25kt in the rush of cooler air. While this will help scour out any surface moisture, some cloud cover below 1kft may be present, and could develop into a low stratus deck given the strength of the cold air advection. OUTLOOK...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Hickman SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Franks

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