Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 151751
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1251 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017
High pressure was located just north of the area today as a
frontal boundary remains stalled to our south. The front will push
north as a warm front tonight and Monday allowing for milder
temperatures and an increasing chance for showers. Low pressure
and a trailing cold front will push through the region on Tuesday
offering more showers and perhaps a thunderstorm.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface high pressure was located just north of the area this
morning with low level dry air getting hung up just north of DAY/
CMH. This has allowed low clouds to clear out across the north
with widespread low clouds across the central and southern parts
of the CWA. Patchy fog from this morning has slowly started to
lift and turn into a low ceiling while drizzle has also started
to come to an end. The main concern for this afternoon is the
approach of a shortwave from the west with returns on the radar
already seen entering southern Indiana. Have gone ahead and raised
PoPs across the southern tier of the CWA as omega values continue
to indicate the best lift there. Not surprisingly this is also
where the best moisture is (closer to the stalled front). Further
north more low level dry air exists (also closer to surface high
pressure) and therefore will likely stay rain free this afternoon
into evening. Also made some minor downward trends in high
temperatures for this afternoon thanks to widespread cloud cover
and precipitation moving in. Looking at 1000/850 mb thicknesses
alone would support high temperatures around 40 degrees. The warm
layer around 850 mb make this value to high and with overcast/
mostly cloudy skies added on think mid to upper 30s is more
likely. New zones already out.
Prev Discussion ->
Surface high pressure over the region this morning will allow for a
temporary dry period. Some partial clearing clearing has taken place
across the far northern counties, but elsewhere low clouds have
remained in place. Abundant low level moisture has lead to
widespread fog development. Low level flow has kept the fog from
becoming dense but some locally protected spots may experience dense
fog at times.
The high will slide east of the region and weak isentropic lift
develops over the far south late this afternoon. Have limited pops
to chance category late in the day south. Highs today to range from
the mid/upper 30s north to the lower 40s south.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak isentropic lift to pivot north through ILN/s FA overnight.
Forcing is not very impressive, so have limited pops to slight
chance. Temperatures to drop off a little this evening and then
steady out overnight with lows from the mid/upper 20s north to the
mid 30s south. Northern portions of CWA may observed some very light
freezing precip overnight. Probability and any possible amount are
too low for a headline at this time.
Mid level and sfc low to eject northeast from the Central Plains
into the upper Mississippi Valley Monday night and across the Great
Lakes Tuesday. In warm sector have limited pops to slight
chance/chance pops durg most of the day Monday. Highs on Monday
to range from the lower 40s north to the mid/upper 50s south.
Expect an enhanced threat for pcpn developing Monday night with nose
of 50 kt low level jet and axis of deep moisture coming into play.
Have categorical pops developing overnight. Expect non diurnal
temperature rise Monday night. The front to push through on Tuesday
afternoon with a continued threat of showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm. On the warm side of the system expect highs on Tuesday
to be around 20 degrees above normal, ranging from the mid 50s nw
to the mid 60s southeast.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will build in at mid week and move off to the east.
Southerly flow will ensue with rising upper heights. This will
lead to well above normal temperatures. Some showers could develop
as weak disturbances lift up the back side of the upper ridge,
with latest guidance suggesting Friday being the better day to see
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Surface high pressure remains centered off to our north this
afternoon with low clouds trying to break across our northern taf
sites. An upper level disturbance off to our west will continue to
work into CVG/ LUK this afternoon while at the same time halting
the advance of the low level dry air. Monday morning the weak
upper level lift from the disturbance working in combination with
some low level moisture will produce some very light rain. At the
same time dry air moving in from around 600 mb looks to transition
the light rain back over to drizzle by Monday morning. High res
models kind of hint at this. Have included the mention of drizzle
in the TAFs for all locations except CMH/ LCK (closer to the low
level dry air). With the abundant low level moisture CIGs will
also likely remain LIFR. During the day Monday some high res
guidance is indicating that a recovery to MVFR will be possible
but looking at GFS/ NAM forecast soundings this will probably be
hard to come by.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities through Wednesday.
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