Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KILN 301427
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1027 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016
High pressure centered over the Eastern Great Lakes is forecast to
keep dry weather over the area today. The threat of showers and
thunderstorms will return Wednesday with a cold front. High
pressure will bring cooler and drier conditions on Thursday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Weakening convection out near srn Lake Michigan is spilling some
debris clouds across nrn IN and now into extreme nw OH. Expect
these clouds to thin as they come e this morning, but still expect
them to affect the nw counties, so increased the cloud cover a
little up there.
Other than that, only a few minor tweaks to the forecast for
today. Still expect highs in the mid to upper 80s.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front forming ahead of a developing mid level trough will
approach from the northwest tonight before crossing the area on
Wednesday. Most locations should remain dry tonight, though a few
showers and thunderstorms may seep into northwest counties late
tonight. For Wednesday, there will be a good chance for showers
and thunderstorms, especially along and north of I-70 where
frontal forcing and peak instability will coincide. Severe
thunderstorm chances should be limited by marginal instability and
rather weak low to mid level wind fields. The chance of
thunderstorms will diminish Wednesday night as the front drops
south and instability decreases markedly.
As the cold front is pushed southeast by the sharpening mid level
trough, Thursday will likely free from precip due to a dry
airmass moving in ahead of a large area of surface high pressure.
Temperatures will remain warm on Wednesday with highs ranging from
the lower 80s northwest to the upper 80s southeast. Thursday will
feature below normal highs in the mid 70s to around 80.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper trough across the eastern part of the continent at the
beginning of the period will translate east by the end of the week.
This will allow an upper ridge to build in over the weekend and
continue into early next week. At the surface...high pressure will
prevail through the period with a dry air mass in place.
Temperatures will be below normal late in the week and then warm
through the weekend and into Monday.
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mid level ridge remains anchored from the central plains through
the Ohio Valley. Weak surface high pressure to slide slowly east
today and tonight with cold front moving through on Wednesday.
Expect just some high level cloudiness early this morning. With
light winds, valley fog has developed at KLUK. Due to wind
fluctuations visibility restrictions are waffling from MVFR to low
IFR at times. This fog will quickly improve this morning. Under
the influence of high pressure, expect VFR conditions today with
only a few cumulus clouds and increasing high level cloudiness.
Ahead of the approaching cold front expect mid level cigs to
develop late tonight. These clouds should inhibit widespread dense
fog formation. Therefore, have limited mention of fog to MVFR
restriction at KLUK.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday.