Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 291409 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1009 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE AREA WILL THEN REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE AND EARLY JULY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AN EMBEDDED S/WV ALOFT COUPLED WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE (MODEST LLJ)...WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. EXPANDED AREA OF 100 POPS LATE THIS MORNING TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATING THAT ALL LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAIN. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS SUGGEST PCPN SHIELD PIVOTS NORTHEAST INTO NRN OHIO AS A WARM FRONT ADVANCES INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT AND THE SLOWLY MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE SPC HAS OUR SRN FCST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY (MLCAPE) CAN BE REALIZED. THE 21Z SREF ENSEMBLE MLCAPE MEAN SUGGESTS THAT 1000 J/KG MAY BE ATTAINABLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. IF SO...DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT (WET MICROBURST TYPE)...ALONG WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. GIVEN THE APPROACHING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THERE IS ENOUGH TURNING OF THE WINDS WITH HEIGHT ALONG WITH LOW LCLS TO WARRANT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WHERE STRONGER STORMS ROTATE. ALL OF THIS WILL BE SPELLED OUT IN THE HWO. A BLEND OF MODELS HAS BEEN USED FOR HIGHS WHICH SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S FAR NORTH TO NEAR 80 ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT WHILE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES ILL-DEFINED. ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD WANE OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAKENING LOW LEVEL FORCING. FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER EMBEDDED S/WV IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL DIG SOUTHEAST...PUSHING INTO OUR REGION DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING. THERE SEEMS TO BE A LACK OF APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL FORCING ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF A WEAK TROF AXIS ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING AND THE DISTURBANCE ARRIVING DURING PEAK HEATING REQUIRES AT LEAST HIGH CHANCE POPS. PCPN SHOULD WANE OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL FORCING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE DISTURBANCE. FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION...PERHAPS BECOMING STALLED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BY THURSDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD BE IN A LULL ON WEDNESDAY IN TERMS OF PCPN CHANCES AND HAVE CARRIED 30 AND 40 POPS...MAINLY DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING. FOR LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GOING INTO THURSDAY...THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW ANOTHER EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WILL PERTURB A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL EXPECTED FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WITH RAPIDLY DECREASING CHANCES TOWARD OUR NRN ZONES. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE AND EARLY JULY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... TROUGHY PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEK AS WELL /ALTHOUGH PERHAPS WITH A LOWER AMPLITUDE/. OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL PROMOTE A CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO WPC WITH MINIMA CLOSE TO AVERAGE AND MAXIMA AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... RAIN IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST RIGHT NOW...BRINGING OCCASIONAL MVFR VISIBILITIES. SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE IFR VISIBILITIES AS WELL. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER INDIANA...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER THIS MORNING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. SOME MVFR CEILINGS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED UPSTREAM OF THE AIRPORTS...BUT IN GENERAL...DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL KEEP CEILINGS IN THE VFR RANGE FOR THE MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER LATE THIS MORNING...AS THE INITIAL BATCH OF RAIN MOVES OUT. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS IN AVIATION CONDITIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING...AS WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE WEST. THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON OCCASION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...BPP AVIATION...HATZOS

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