Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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967 FXUS61 KILN 301427 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1027 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered over the Eastern Great Lakes is forecast to keep dry weather over the area today. The threat of showers and thunderstorms will return Wednesday with a cold front. High pressure will bring cooler and drier conditions on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Weakening convection out near srn Lake Michigan is spilling some debris clouds across nrn IN and now into extreme nw OH. Expect these clouds to thin as they come e this morning, but still expect them to affect the nw counties, so increased the cloud cover a little up there. Other than that, only a few minor tweaks to the forecast for today. Still expect highs in the mid to upper 80s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... A cold front forming ahead of a developing mid level trough will approach from the northwest tonight before crossing the area on Wednesday. Most locations should remain dry tonight, though a few showers and thunderstorms may seep into northwest counties late tonight. For Wednesday, there will be a good chance for showers and thunderstorms, especially along and north of I-70 where frontal forcing and peak instability will coincide. Severe thunderstorm chances should be limited by marginal instability and rather weak low to mid level wind fields. The chance of thunderstorms will diminish Wednesday night as the front drops south and instability decreases markedly. As the cold front is pushed southeast by the sharpening mid level trough, Thursday will likely free from precip due to a dry airmass moving in ahead of a large area of surface high pressure. Temperatures will remain warm on Wednesday with highs ranging from the lower 80s northwest to the upper 80s southeast. Thursday will feature below normal highs in the mid 70s to around 80. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Upper trough across the eastern part of the continent at the beginning of the period will translate east by the end of the week. This will allow an upper ridge to build in over the weekend and continue into early next week. At the surface...high pressure will prevail through the period with a dry air mass in place. Temperatures will be below normal late in the week and then warm through the weekend and into Monday. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mid level ridge remains anchored from the central plains through the Ohio Valley. Weak surface high pressure to slide slowly east today and tonight with cold front moving through on Wednesday. Expect just some high level cloudiness early this morning. With light winds, valley fog has developed at KLUK. Due to wind fluctuations visibility restrictions are waffling from MVFR to low IFR at times. This fog will quickly improve this morning. Under the influence of high pressure, expect VFR conditions today with only a few cumulus clouds and increasing high level cloudiness. Ahead of the approaching cold front expect mid level cigs to develop late tonight. These clouds should inhibit widespread dense fog formation. Therefore, have limited mention of fog to MVFR restriction at KLUK. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM... AVIATION...AR

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