Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 260229 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1029 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An area of low pressure will push east of the region this evening. An unsettled pattern is expected for the weekend with multiple systems moving through the area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... With the loss of daytime heating, the coverage and intensity of thundershowers has decreased markedly over the last several hours in the area. Some lingering light showers will continue for NE and E parts of the FA through early tonight before moving east of the area. Even with this, however, measurable rain may be difficult to come by for most locations. Main item of interest overnight will be the potential for some patchy fog development for western half of FA, especially as back edge of cloud shield begins to through and radiational cooling becomes a bit stronger. Mainly clear skies have already crept into parts of northern KY and expect that back edge of clouds will slowly drift east through the near term period. Do not currently expect clear conditions to return for entire area by end of near term period as mostly cloudy skies are still expected for eastern FA, even by sunrise. Lingering cloud cover will likely keep eastern zones a bit warmer tonight than western zones, but still anticipate a fairly uniform temperature pattern, with lows ranging from the low to mid 50s by the end of the near term period. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Dry conditions will be present for much of the day on Friday. A low pressure system will begin to quickly move towards the area Friday evening into Friday night. Showers and thunderstorms will move through the region. Isolated damaging winds will be the primary threat, however cannot rule out some isolated large hail as well. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Weak cold front will be laying out across the region at the beginning of the period. Some showers and thunderstorms may occur with this feature as it moves in. With further destabilization in the afternoon, there could be some additional development near this boundary although forcing does not look particularly strong. However, 12Z model suite has a pretty good signal that convection will become organized in the mid Mississippi Valley with the MCS then moving across the region late Saturday night into Sunday. A large upper level low will slowly track across Ontario for the first half of the week and then weaken and lift Thursday. This will result in cool conditions across the region through the rest of the period. A short wave rotating around the upper low may bring some showers and possible thunder on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A vertically-organized area of low pressure will continue to move east of the region through the first part of the TAF period. Scattered -SHRA on the backside of the low continue to pivot southeast this evening, impacting mainly KCMH and KLCK, but also KILN and KDAY with some very light -RA. As the surface low pulls away from the area, expect greatest coverage of SHRA to shift east by 06z. But for the next several hours, expect on- and-off activity for KCMH and KLCK, which may lead to brief MVFR VSBYs and CIGs. For southwest terminals of KCVG and KLUK, expect that MVFR CIGs will go VFR shortly as the surface ridge axis approaches from the west. In fact, latest satellite depicts the back edge of extensive cloud cover approaching within first several hours of TAF period for these sites. Main concern for the overnight period will be the potential for MVFR VSBYs due to BR development, especially for areas that see clearing a bit faster. Expect that this may be an issue for western terminals, especially KLUK, but cloud cover should inhibit any BR development at KCMH and KLCK. However, there will be the potential for IFR CIGs at these sites towards 12z as back edge of clouds may be a bit slower to move out. Expect that TAF period will be dry for all sites past 06z. However, models have hinted at the potential for some TSRA activity moving into western parts of area towards end of KCVG 30-hr period. Did not have confidence on timing or location to include such activity in the forecast at this time. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings, visibilities, along with a chance of thunderstorms possible Friday night into Monday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...KC SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM... AVIATION...KC is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.