Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 190609 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 109 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will approach the region from the southwest tonight. It will then lift northeast across the area on Monday. Much of the region will dry out for Monday night into Tuesday as frontal boundaries remain to the north and west. Unseasonably warm air will bring the potential for record temperatures on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Temperatures have fallen off into the mid 30s to lower 40s across the region. This should be close to the min temperature for tonight. Expect temps to begin to creep up overnight. Clouds will continue to thicken and lower as the night progresses. Still expect rain to develop late tonight as two areas of upper level energy come together. Latest runs of the mesoscale models are suggesting that development might be delayed by an hour or so adjusted accordingly. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... On Monday, the warm front is forecast to lift north across the region, being located across the southern Great Lakes by evening. Again, showers (isolated thunder) will be most widespread along and north of I-70 during the morning, with decreasing chances as one moves south. By afternoon, much of the precipitation will have lifted into northern Ohio. Total rainfall amounts will range from a half inch to and inch along and north of I-70, with a tenth to one half inch elsewhere. This should not pose a need for an areal flood watch. Under an increasing southerly flow, locally gusty, temperatures will warm into the lower 60s north to near 70 along and south of the Ohio River. These values are well above normal by about 25 degrees. However, it appears records at the three major airports should be safe. For Monday night, much of the region will be in the wake of the warm front and warm sectored. Some spotty shower activity in a moist southwest plume aloft will prompt to keep at least a chance of showers going for the far northwest. Overnight lows will also be unseasonably warm, ranging from the upper 50s to the lower 60s. These values will be some 30 to 35 degrees above normal. Given predicted warmth on Tuesday, it looks like record low maximums for February 20th (Tuesday) are going to be broken. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... An unseasonably warm forecast with a very moist airmass and periods of rain will remain the general consensus over the Ohio Valley through the period. Record warm temperatures are expected through Tuesday night. While daytime records are forecast to be broken, they`re still within 3-5 degrees of the records and not a sure bet. Overnight lows are forecast 10 deg warmer Mon night/Tues morning and 3-9 deg warmer Tues night, and much more likely to be set. A front will be found northwest of the area through early Wednesday and then work through the region with an early high in the southeast and falling temperatures for the rest of the area during the day. This will bring the coldest temperatures of the period Wed night through Thurs night - still 10 deg warmer than normal on overnight lows and 5 deg warmer on highs. Southwest flow then sets back up for the latter part of the forecast and brings a return of unseasonably mild temperatures and increased threats of rain. Regarding rainfall, a prolonged period of steady and sometimes moderate rain will occur with the frontal passage Tues night through Wed night. Have indicated moderate rainfall where pops were likely and higher, and also put in a chance of thunder for the same area through Tuesday night. Not to say that thunder won`t be possible on Wednesday, but the zonal upper flow and lack of defined shortwaves in the flow this far out had me leave this out beyond then. Likewise with the second threat for rain on Friday and beyond, models disagreed significantly enough with placement, timing, and upper level features to have me top out the max chance of rain at the chance category, though it will likely occur at times. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR conditions will start out the TAF period. Low level wind shear will be possible overnight. Lower CIGS will move into the region overnight and into the day on Monday with a warm frontal boundary. An area of showers and potentially isolated thunderstorms will move into the TAF sites Monday morning. This main area of precipitation will lift northwards by late morning. A few showers will remain for the afternoon, but primarily dry conditions will be present. Cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm, but probability was too low to include at this time. Winds will pick up for the afternoon and early evening hours with wind gusts around 20 to 25 knots. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visbilities to return Tuesday night into Wednesday night. MVFR conditions possible at times Thursday and Friday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...Novak

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