Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 130036 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 736 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will briefly build into the area tonight and early Wednesday. Later in the afternoon, low pressure will track southeast and into the Ohio Valley, crossing east through northern Ohio in the evening. A ridge of surface high pressure oriented west to east will bring dry weather for Thursday and Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Lake enhanced band of snow will continue to change orientation from a more nw-se to wnw-ese this late afternoon and early evening. Upper level trough will pass east of Ohio this evening and remove upper level support for these showers, which will quickly give way this evening. Skies should clear from sw-ne, with little cloud cover noted to the southwest of the region this afternoon. Gusty northwest winds will still be present for the bulk of the evening hours and then calm down once the gradient loosens up overnight. The clearing and lightening of the winds will help the region to drop into the teens tonight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A slight warmup is expected tomorrow as southerly winds will pick up and a warm front sets up north of the CWA. Warm is still a relative term, with upper 30s expected sw of metro Cincy and around 30 over and ne of metro Columbus. Low pressure will track into the area late in the day, and an upper level shortwave will be the kicker to provide enough lift ahead of the surface low to initiate snow showers, primarily for the northern half of the CWA. A secondary shortwave will follow the first in the evening, bringing another potential round of snow and then ending any snow threat as it exits the area. Highs may be warmer tomorrow in the southwest if the sun is more abundant. Regardless of the surface temperatures, the cold nature of the atmosphere above it will only permit snow to be the weather type of the day. Significant accumulations are not expected, though an inch or two will remain possible for the northern half of the CWA tomorrow afternoon and evening. While the snow potential remains higher over the next few days, snow totals in the forecast appear to be too high and could be realistically shaved by half. Adding up 2 and 3 tenths in several 6 hour blocks given the presence of snow was putting a higher total in place than what is actually expected. A more realistic expectation for Wednesday`s snow would be on the order of an inch in central ohio and maybe a half inch northeast of metro Cincinnati. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Northwest flow aloft with surface high pressure building across the region Thursday. This high will offer dry weather conditions and cold temperatures. Expect Thursdays temperatures to be 10 to 15 degrees below normal, with highs from the lower 20s northwest to the lower 30s southeast. Surface low to track through the northern Great Lakes Friday. Best precipitation to stay to ILN/s north closer to the surface wave. Will carry low chance pop of snow showers north. Temperatures look to be around 10 degrees below normal, with highs Friday ranging from the upper 20s north to the mid 30s south. Upper level flow backs westerly with ridge building into the region. Southerly low level flow develops Saturday with temperatures warming to near normal. Expect highs Saturday to range from the mid 30s northeast to the mid 40s southwest. Mid level flow backs southwesterly with moisture spreading back into the area early next week. ECMWF appears to be an outlier with GFS/Canadian solutions weaker and more progressive. Will continue chance pops with the best chance southeast Sunday. Based on thermal profiles, across the north expect rain and snow during the day changing to snow Sunday night with mainly rain south. Temperatures Sunday look to be above normal with highs from 40 north to the upper 40s south. This pcpn event looks to be progressive with pcpn ending early Monday. Temperatures looks to be close to normal with Mondays highs ranging from the the upper 30s north to the mid/upper 40s south. Model solution spread increases by the middle of next week, so confidence decreases. Using a blended approach will continue a dry forecast Tuesday into Wednesday with surface high pressure over the area. Temperatures to moderate a little with highs Tuesday from the around 40 north to the upper 40s south. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Low level flow is beginning to back off of Lake Michigan. This means the snow showers will continue to lift northeast, and will be limited to CMH/LCK for the first few hours of the taf period. At CVG/LUK, sc is already coming to and end. The southern edge of the sc will see a gradual progression to the ne through 06Z. Models and satellite loop is showing an area of AC over WI/IL that will swing in overnight ahead of a digging H5 s/w. Forecast for Wednesday is still up in the air. The bulk of the synoptic models are keeping the overrunning pcpn north of the fa for period. This is now being supported by the latest runs of the RAP and HRRR, which now reach out until 18Z. The two WRFs and the 18Z Canadian regional have more isentropic lift ahead of the low and are bringing a swath of snow into the tafs between 15-18Z. Decided to lean towards the former solution, but even this solution is showing a chance of snow at CMH/LCK during the morning and lasting into the afternoon. For the other tafs, the chance of snow will wait unto; the sfc low gets closer to the region. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities along with wind gusts to 25 kt possible Wednesday night. MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Friday and Sunday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks/Sites NEAR TERM...Franks SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Sites

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