Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 031044 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 644 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. THE RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AREA REMAINS IN A NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. CLOUD COVER VARIES...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES WHERE MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION...WHILE SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR OVER WESTERN COUNTIES. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MEANDER SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MODELS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN A SURGE OF MOISTURE...SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND INCREASED INSTABILITY CIRCULATING NORTHWARD AROUND THE UPPER LOW. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...LIMITED SOLAR ENERGY...AND WARM ADVECTION...RISING TO THE MID 70S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LOW WILL MOVE GRADUALLY EAST ON THURSDAY. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN A PATTERN OF WEAK FORCING IN A NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR FRIDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT DROPPING FROM THE NORTH WILL PROVIDE SOME CONVERGENCE AND LIFT...WHILE INSTABILITY INCREASES IN THE WARMING AIRMASS. WENT WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL LOCATIONS. CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW DUE TO WEAK WIND PROFILES. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 80 ON THURSDAY...AND THE LOW TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF AND WPC FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THERE REMAINS SOME ISSUES ON HOW STRONG A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER SE CANADA/NEW ENGLAND AND HOW FAST IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. GIVEN THAT THE DYNAMICS ARE ON THE WEAK SIDE...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD BE IN A LULL IN TERMS OF THE THREAT FOR PCPN WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONGER COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEAST AND PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH BETTER DYNAMICS AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...WILL RAISE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE. FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW...SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MAY WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION. LOW CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED WITH THIS POSSIBILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY TO DRIFT SLOWLY SE TODAY. LOW CLOUDS IN MVFR CATEGORY HAVE DRIFTED BACK ACRS ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING IN THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THESE LOW CLOUDS HAVE KEPT VSBYS FROM CRASHING AND GENERALLY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. THESE LOW CIGS WILL PERSIST THRU THE EARLY MORNING AND THEN SLOWLY LIFT INTO VFR THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP DURG THE LATE AFTN MAINLY EAST OF I-71 IN RESPONSE TO A S/W ROTATING AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO STAY SE OF THE TAF SITES...SO HAVE OMITTED ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME IN THE FCST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. FOG WILL LKLY DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACRS THE SRN TAF SITES...KCVG/KLUK AND KILN. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...AR

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