Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KILN 020228
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
928 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016
Flow around a large low pressure system to the northeast will keep
cool and mainly cloudy conditions across the region through
Friday. High pressure will build in Saturday. A weak upper level
disturbance will track across the area Sunday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Clearing has taken place across the southern part of the area
this evening but a burst of CAA has allowed more low clouds to
form just west of the area. These will likely move into the area
over the next couple of hours. Not many changes to ongoing
forecast. New zones already out.
Satellite imagery shows that clearing has worked into the Tri-
State. Elsewhere there have been some thin spots in the
stratocumulus, but conditions have remained cloudy. It appears
that clearing could make a little more progress into the forecast
area this evening. But a return to some weak cold air advection
later tonight should result in lower clouds spreading back across
those areas that cleared. Forecast lows do not stray too far from
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Stratocumulus is expected to continue through Friday and into
Friday evening. Weak low level warm air advection finally
commences Friday night and surface high pressure starts to nose in
from the west. This should be sufficient for low clouds to
The high will build in Saturday and already move off to the east
Saturday night. High clouds will be starting to spread in Saturday
although at this point expect them to be thin through much of the
day. Clouds will thicken towards evening and then lower into a mid
deck Saturday night. But it will remain dry.
Highs will remain below normal with lows near normal through the
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A system will move through the region Sunday into Sunday evening.
There is a northern and southern component to this system and models
continue to differ on how much phasing between these two components
there will be. Trends continue to be towards less phasing therefore
kept close to the previous forecast of a little cooler with the
temperatures and lighter with the precipitation.
A brief lull in the precipitation will occur late Sunday night
through the daytime hours on Monday. The next system will move up
from the south Monday night through Tuesday. Precipitation will
generally be in the form of rain with this system as warmer air in
drawn in from the south.
Another system will move through Wednesday night into Thursday. GFS
is not as pronounced with the precipitation with this system. Went
closer to the ECMWF solution. After the frontal passage on Thursday,
much colder air will work into the region. Some light snow will be
possible then on Thursday.
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Extensive low clouds remain across the region this evening around
cyclonic flow. There is some clearing across the south this
evening but this will be transient. Some weak CAA is right behind
it with more low clouds pushing east across southern Illinois.
Forecast soundings from the GFS and NAM have clouds coming right
back overnight with almost all TAF sites going MVFR. The main
question is the southern TAF sites (KCVG and KLUK) and whether
they will go MVFR or not.
During the day Friday northern TAF sites will likely be border
line MVFR/ VFR with southern TAF sites going VFR. The surface low
that was located near southeastern Canada will finally push east
allowing surface winds to relax a bit with westerly winds adding
more of a northerly component. The GFS also is hinting at the
possibility of some flurries Friday afternoon as weak PVA moves
over the area but saturation in the DGZ is questionable at best.
Either way no impacts are expected.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible through Saturday morning. MVFR
ceilings and visibilities possible Sunday and again Monday night