Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 020228 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 928 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Flow around a large low pressure system to the northeast will keep cool and mainly cloudy conditions across the region through Friday. High pressure will build in Saturday. A weak upper level disturbance will track across the area Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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Clearing has taken place across the southern part of the area this evening but a burst of CAA has allowed more low clouds to form just west of the area. These will likely move into the area over the next couple of hours. Not many changes to ongoing forecast. New zones already out. Prev Discussion-> Satellite imagery shows that clearing has worked into the Tri- State. Elsewhere there have been some thin spots in the stratocumulus, but conditions have remained cloudy. It appears that clearing could make a little more progress into the forecast area this evening. But a return to some weak cold air advection later tonight should result in lower clouds spreading back across those areas that cleared. Forecast lows do not stray too far from MOS guidance.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Stratocumulus is expected to continue through Friday and into Friday evening. Weak low level warm air advection finally commences Friday night and surface high pressure starts to nose in from the west. This should be sufficient for low clouds to eventually erode. The high will build in Saturday and already move off to the east Saturday night. High clouds will be starting to spread in Saturday although at this point expect them to be thin through much of the day. Clouds will thicken towards evening and then lower into a mid deck Saturday night. But it will remain dry. Highs will remain below normal with lows near normal through the period. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A system will move through the region Sunday into Sunday evening. There is a northern and southern component to this system and models continue to differ on how much phasing between these two components there will be. Trends continue to be towards less phasing therefore kept close to the previous forecast of a little cooler with the temperatures and lighter with the precipitation. A brief lull in the precipitation will occur late Sunday night through the daytime hours on Monday. The next system will move up from the south Monday night through Tuesday. Precipitation will generally be in the form of rain with this system as warmer air in drawn in from the south. Another system will move through Wednesday night into Thursday. GFS is not as pronounced with the precipitation with this system. Went closer to the ECMWF solution. After the frontal passage on Thursday, much colder air will work into the region. Some light snow will be possible then on Thursday. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Extensive low clouds remain across the region this evening around cyclonic flow. There is some clearing across the south this evening but this will be transient. Some weak CAA is right behind it with more low clouds pushing east across southern Illinois. Forecast soundings from the GFS and NAM have clouds coming right back overnight with almost all TAF sites going MVFR. The main question is the southern TAF sites (KCVG and KLUK) and whether they will go MVFR or not. During the day Friday northern TAF sites will likely be border line MVFR/ VFR with southern TAF sites going VFR. The surface low that was located near southeastern Canada will finally push east allowing surface winds to relax a bit with westerly winds adding more of a northerly component. The GFS also is hinting at the possibility of some flurries Friday afternoon as weak PVA moves over the area but saturation in the DGZ is questionable at best. Either way no impacts are expected. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible through Saturday morning. MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Sunday and again Monday night into Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...Haines SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...Haines is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.