Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 221749 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 149 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT MOVING THRU CENTRAL OHIO. DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL EXIT THE AREA WITH THE FRONT SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY AFTN. HAVE TRIMMED BACK PCPN MENTION TO JUST A SIGHT CHC IN THE FAR EAST EARLY. GOOD DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE TO WORK INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS IS EVIDENT BY SHARP SFC DEW POINT DRYING AND LATEST VISIBLE SATL IMGRY WHICH SHOWS CLEARING ACROSS MUCH OF INDIANA. CLOUDS OVER ILNS AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. GRADIENT INCREASES TODAY WITH WINDS INCREASING DURG THE AFTN WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. SMALL DIURNAL RISE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER THEY WILL STAY UP SOME THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS WELL. WITH COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 30S TONIGHT. HAVE PATCHY FROST MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST PLACES. LIMITED MOST LOCATIONS TO PATCHY FROST DUE TO THE WIND STAYING UP SOME TONIGHT. WENT WITH AREAS OF FROST ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE FA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER. TEMPERATURES ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL DROP DOWN TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM WITH NORTHERLY FLOW. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PRIMARILY LOCATIONS EAST OF KCMH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE COOLER...LIGHTER WINDS...AND LESS CLOUD COVER. WARMER AIR WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 70S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND RH VALUES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES MAY POSE SOME FIRE WX ISSUES. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THIS AGREEMENT INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE ONLY HAVE AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A SECOND FRONT WILL UNDULATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...SWITCHING WINDS STRONGER TO THE NORTH. COLD ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN. ALONG WITH THIS FRONT...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THE NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT THE POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE CWA WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE WEATHER GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF RUNS HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE 12Z RUNS...INVOLVING THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK. A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEAST-TO-NORTHWEST FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO EXIST NEAR NEW ENGLAND. THE STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HELP DETERMINE THE OVERALL FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND WHETHER OR NOT THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY ACTIVATES THROUGH THE REGION OR FURTHER SOUTH. THERE ARE NO CLEAR ANSWERS...WITH DIFFERENT STRENGTHS BETWEEN THE UPPER FEATURES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST SUPPRESSED WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH...WITH A WEAKER RIDGE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THUS A MUCH WETTER PATTERN. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF HAS A STRONG LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND...AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO DEPICTS...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MUCH WEAKER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. FINALLY...THE CANADIAN MODEL SOLUTION LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS...WITH STRONGER RIDGING AND A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING THE REGION UNDER A COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS. WHILE TEMPERATURES SEEM LIKELY TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL NEXT WEEK...THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. SOME 20-30 PERCENT POPS WERE INTRODUCED WITH A FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN CWA...FOR THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MVFR CIGS HAVE GIVEN WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS EXPECTED THRU THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT THRU THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO OR BELOW 10 KT OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF FCST PERIOD. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...AR

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