Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 181303 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 903 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low pressure system will bring scattered to numerous snow showers and an unseasonable cold airmass to the Ohio Valley today. A fast-moving but dry frontal system will reinforce the chilly conditions through mid-week. The next chance for precipitation will arrive with a weak disturbance moving through the Great Lakes on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Already seeing some light snow showers across the area this morning and expect these to increase in coverage through the afternoon as low level lapse rates increase. This will be enhanced by a fetch off of Lake Michigan. We will remain cold today with highs only in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Some visibility restrictions and brief light accumulations on grassy surfaces will be possible with some of the heavier snow showers.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... The snow showers will weaken and decrease in coverage quickly after sunset this evening, leading to a cold and dry night. Temperatures will drop into the mid-20s by morning. Flow will shift to the west/southwest on Tuesday ahead of a progressive shortwave diving into the Upper Midwest. Efficient mixing will lead to gusty winds in the afternoon with highs reaching into the lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Mid level northwest flow aloft will amplify some across the Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday as embedded energy/upper level jet dig southeast. This will push a cold front through our area. This front is expected to pass through dry with mainly just some clouds Tuesday night. In the CAA pattern behind the front, it will be breezy once again with wind gusts between 25 mph and 35 mph. Temperatures will vary given the CAA occurring during the day. Highs will range from the lower 40s northwest to the mid/upper 50s far south and southeast. For Wednesday night into Thursday, the mid level trough axis is forecast to shift into southeast Canada/New England. This will allow surface high pressure to settle across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will provide a period of dry weather, decreasing wind, and mostly clear skies. It will be colder, however. After lows in the lower to mid 20s, highs on Thursday will range from the upper 30s north to the upper 40s south. These readings may still be on the high side, so depending on the strength of the CAA, we may have to decrease these readings in future forecasts. The mid level flow begins to relax and becoming zonal Thursday night into Friday. This will allow for a couple of embedded disturbances to pass through the region. A chance of rain or snow late Thursday night will transition to a chance of rain on Friday. After lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s, highs will warm into the upper 40s north to the mid/upper 50s south. We will dry out for the most part over the upcoming weekend as mid level flow begins to buckle, allowing for ridging to build northward into the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will eventually modify/warm into the second half of the weekend. && .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Convective snow showers will be the story today at most of the terminals as an upper trough shifts into the Ohio Valley. Focus of highest impacts will likely be through the heart of the afternoon due to visibility restrictions. Have depicted this in the TAFs with an IFR tempo group. Gusty winds will occur, especially during the showers. The trough exits to the east tonight allowing clouds to scatter and winds to slacken a bit. Another trough will cause southwesterly gusts starting in the CVG 30-hour period on Tuesday. OUTLOOK...Winds could gust to near 30 knots Tuesday afternoon. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Hickman AVIATION...

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