Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 230909 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 409 AM EST Tue Jan 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Cloudy skies and cold air will be the resultant weather behind the cold front that crossed the region last night. A weak upper level trough will keep cloudy skies and a threat for light snow in the forecast through early Wednesday. Dry conditions will occur as the high pressure builds through Thursday, along with a return to warmer temperatures for the end of the week and into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Showers will skirt the northwest portion of the CWA early this morning. Afterwards, the cold air pushing into the region will interact with a moist lower atmosphere to produce scattered showers that will quickly mix with and change to snow showers this morning and early afternoon. Temperatures will be experiencing a slow drop through the day as the atmosphere cools from aloft. Even if surface readings are around 36-38 degrees, the warm layer will be fairly shallow and most of the region would be seeing scattered snow showers and flurries by the afternoon. Accumulation is expected to be on the order of a tenth to a quarter inch and not be a strong impact as the ground will be warm to begin with and inhibit accumulation on roadways. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Cold air will continue to push in tonight, with a very weak secondary trough aloft being enough to keep some flurries in the forecast through the overnight hours. A stronger upper trough will cross late Wednesday but the atmosphere will have dried out enough to not produce any snow shower activity with the feature, just more cloudy skies. Wednesday highs will only be about 5-7 deg warmer than the overnight lows and top out in the lower 30s with continued cold advection. Cloud cover overnight Wednesday will help keep temperatures from falling past the middle and upper 20s. Return flow on Thursday will permit readings to rise into the 40s with a clearing trend in sky cover. By Friday, readings should be topping out in the 50s once again with continued dry conditions. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Did not make any significant change to the extended forecast. Warm air pooling ahead of a cold front will help wring out shower activity beginning early Saturday, maxing out in the afternoon with colder and drier air working in overnight and Sunday. Temperatures will then cool and return to just above their seasonal normals for next week. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Line of convection has moved east of the tafs, as a cold front currently splits the region. Expect the front to clear the eastern tafs by 07Z. Clouds have gone scattered as the post frontal dry slot has worked in. Clouds will go broken again as lift increases ahead of embedded disturbance rotating around the upper level low. Ceilings should be VFR as the clouds move in. Models are consistent in bringing an area of showers up through mainly the Whitewater and Miami Valleys after 09Z. Added tempo MVFR vsbys at KDAY with this pcpn. Elsewhere pcpn should be scattered in nature, so just went with vcsh. H5 low will lift up through the region today, causing ceilings to lower to MVFR. West to southwest winds will affect the tafs throughout the day with gusts in the upper 20 to the lower 30 kt range. Scattered showers will continue as the caa and lift from the upper low combine over the area. Upper low will pull out tonight, allowing winds to gradually diminish during the overnight hours, but MVFR ceiling will linger. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings likely to linger into Wednesday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM...Franks SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...Sites is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.