Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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303 FXUS61 KILN 270059 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 859 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms will develop today into tonight as low pressure moves to Lake Michigan. After a brief visit by high pressure and drier air early Monday, another low will bring more showers and thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday. Dry weather can be expected Wednesday under high pressure. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Upper level low pressure is currently in central Illinois with the second band of precipitation getting ready to exit the CWA. A third band of precipitation has now formed across the IND forecast area and is expected to push east through central Ohio later this afternoon into early evening. The latest run of the GFS is showing slightly higher MU CAPE values for this afternoon (some values slightly above 1000 J/kg). For the most part forecast soundings show this CAPE to be weak and skinny. Shortwave cooling and 800 - 500mb winds of 35 to 40kts will make damaging winds and severe hail the primary severe threats for this afternoon. Due to the above SPC has the area in a marginal risk. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Monday an area of upper level low pressure will push east across the central United States. This second system will be right on the heals of the Sunday upper level low and will bring a quick return for the chance of showers and thunderstorms. After the brief break Monday morning the upper level low will move towards Illinois with pockets of PVA crossing the ILN forecast area. PWATs will also be on the rise towards 1.10" (NAM and GFS). The best upper level lift from the RRQ will be further south towards Kentucky but with a weak upper level jet streak moving overhead think upper level support will be more than sufficient. MU CAPE values on the NAM across the southern zones are nearing 1500 J/kg while are only around 500 J/kg on the GFS. On the GFS the greatest 0-3km bulk shear is also further south across KY. The NAM on the other hand is more north with the greatest shear and instability. Thanks to the mentioned above SPC has most of the area in a marginal risk. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Severe risk continues into Monday evening as an area of low pressure moves across the region. Isolated damaging winds, isolated large hail, and isolated tornadoes will be possible. Have this highlighted in the HWO. Severe threat will diminish later in the overnight hours as the area of low pressure moves out of the region. Additional showers and some thunderstorms will be possible across primarily the southeastern half of the forecast area on Tuesday closer to a frontal boundary. Dry conditions are then expected for Wednesday and Wednesday night in between systems. A warm front will lift northward on Thursday allowing for showers and some thunderstorms. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue for Friday as a cold front moves through. Precipitation will taper off Friday night into Saturday morning. Another system will move into the area on Sunday. There are more model differences with this system therefore limited precipitation chances to the chance category. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A broken line of showers and embedded thunderstorms is pushing east across central Ohio with a few lingering showers back to the west. This is associated with an upper level trough axis pivoting northeast across our area this evening. This activity should continue to work off to our north and east through the early morning hours. The models are suggesting some MVFR cigs will develop later tonight into Monday morning, especially at our northern taf sites. These cigs should lift back up into VFR through late morning as we start to get some daytime heating. We will destabilize through the afternoon hours ahead of an approaching mid level short wave. This will lead to the chance for thunderstorms development through mid to late afternoon and continuing into the evening. Will cover this threat with a VCTS at the western TAF sites. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible Monday night into Tuesday morning. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...Haines SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...JGL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.