Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 270550
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1250 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017
A weak upper level disturbance will cross east through the Ohio
Valley tonight and early Monday, initiating a period of rain
along and southeast of the I-71 corridor. A low pressure system
over the upper midwest on Tuesday will lift a warm front through
the Ohio Valley. As the low crosses into Canada from the Great
Lakes region, a cold front will drop southeast into the Gulf of
Mexico and see showers and thunderstorms develop along it
Tuesday night into Wednesday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Clouds will continue to stream east northeast across the region
overnight in advance of a weak disturbance in the Central
Plains this evening. Some showers may develop into the
Cincinnati Tri-State towards daybreak, although the better
chance will hold off until Monday. The increasing clouds will
keep temperatures from dropping off too much and any changes to
low temperatures have been very minor.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Light rain will overspread the region Monday with the possible
exception of areas north and west of metro Dayton. The low level
jet riding northeast along the I-71 corridor and shortwave
moving east will see the chance for rain increase in this area
during the morning, then taper off early in the afternoon as
these forcing mechanisms exit the immediate area. Models were
trying to mix in some snow with this rain early on Monday but
the warmer processes occurring over above-freezing surface
temperatures has me remove this potential solution entirely.
Highs on Monday will range from 50-55 in most locations.
As the rain tapers off late in the day another stream of
moisture will necessitate an increased chance for showers
overnight, spreading from west to east. The warmer temperatures
moving in with this secondary system will have overnight
minimums in the 40s over the CWA.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Tuesday continues the active pattern with a surface low and
deepening trough over the northern plains approaches the area.
With increasing moisture and instability over the region, onset
of showers on Tuesday morning with a warm front lifting through
the area and increasing moisture. The uncertainty will be in
precipitation onset, and just how quickly the region will
saturate and coinciding with the cyclogenesis pushing into the
area. Some potential for strong storms with increasing
instability and bulk shear.
Tuesday night sets up a strong LLJ streak pushing into the Ohio
valley, bringing a setup for potentially heavy rain with most
solutions toward an along and south of the Ohio River solution for
the heaviest rainfall. Efficient moisture transport/Precipitable
Water values above the 90th percentile and a stalled boundary, and
with a setup blocking ridge off the SE coast. The main question is
in the details of exactly where the boundary will stall out before
finally kicking east of the area Wednesday night bringing a cold
front through the region bringing dry conditions through Thursday
morning before a clipper system pushes through the region late
Thursday into Friday. System begins as a rain/snow mix before all
snow showers Thursday night as the system pushes through the area.
Dry and seasonable conditions through the weekend.
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Light returns are showing up on radar stretching from southern
Illinois and western Kentucky eastward into far southern
Ohio/eastern Kentucky. Just based on surface obs though, it
does not appear that much of this is reaching the ground so
far. As a result, will just have some mid level clouds across
the area at the start of the TAF period. The low level jet is
forecast to gradually strengthen as we progress through the pre
dawn hours. This should allow for the pcpn to fill in some more
and start to reach the ground as the lower levels begin to
saturate. As a result, expect the best chance for rain to be at
the southern TAF sites through the mid to late morning hours.
Will therefore carry a prevailing -shra at KCVG and KLUK for a
period and just have a vcsh later today at the remaining TAF
sites. Cigs should drop down into MVFR category later this
morning and then continue through much of the afternoon before
lifting back to VFR this evening.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities likely Tuesday into
Wednesday along with a chance of thunderstorms. MVFR ceilings
may linger into Wednesday night and be possible again Thursday
night. Wind gusts to 30 kts will be possible Wednesday afternoon
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