Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 312206 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 506 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND RAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WHEN A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT PLAINS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. WHILE JET STREAM ENERGY INCREASES AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN...AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN...INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. DURING THIS PROCESS...A BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SET UP OVER THE ILN AREA WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST. LATEST MODELS SHOW THE BAND AFFECTING LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF CINCINNATI. PRECIP WILL START AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TYPE VARYING WITH RESPECT TO ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE PROFILES. EXPECT DEFINITE SNOW FOR THE NORTH HALF OF THE FA INCLUDING DAYTON...COLUMBUS AND WAPAKONETA. FOR LOCATIONS ROUGHLY NEAR WILMINGTON...WARMER AIR ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW A WINTRY MIX. FARTHER SOUTH FROM CINCINNATI TO PORTSMOUTH AND ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF FZRA AND RA. DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT NATURE OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BASED ON QPF AND MODEL SOUNDINGS...WENT WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW NORTH OF DAY AND CMH. FARTHER SOUTH WENT WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR LIGHTER SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS. SEE CLEWSWILN FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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SURFACE LOW WILL PROGRESS UP THE OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTHERN INDIANA ON SUNDAY. WHILE SNOW PERSISTS NORTH OF DAYTON...CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING. WITH MODELS PRESENTING A WARMER SOLUTION...RAIN IS THE ANTICIPATED PRECIP TYPE SOUTH OF I-70...WITH SNOW NORTH. A BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL ENHANCE PRECIP ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING FROM EASTERN OHIO TO PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY MORNING. PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AREA WIDE BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. SNOW IN THE NORTH WILL BE ENHANCED BY STRONG DEFORMATION IN THE NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY...WITH OVER 10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER WEST CENTRAL OHIO...A FEW INCHES NEAR DAYTON AND COLUMBUS...AND UNDER AN INCH AT CINCINNATI...PORTSMOUTH ...AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ARE IN STORE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE TEENS AN 20S MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LOWS RANGING FROM THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE MID TEENS SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH BRISK WINDS TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS BELOW MINUS 10 OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE FA. WILL MENTION WIND CHILLS IN HWO FOR NOW...AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE ISSUED ACROSS THE NORTH.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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NORTHWEST MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH THE CENTER OF SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE COLD AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TUESDAYS HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NE TO THE UPPER 30S SW. FLOW BACKS WESTERLY A HEAD OF DIGGING TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES... WITH A QUICK MORNING SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/WED. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH. PCPN WILL LKLY MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE SOUTH PRIOR TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WED AFTN. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S NE TO THE UPPER 20S SW. HIGHS ON WED FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER/MID 40S FAR SOUTH. REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN TO BUILD SE BECOMING CENTERED OVER OHIO THURSDAY. COLD AND DRY WEATHER ON TAP WITH WED NIGHT/S LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACRS THE NORTHWEST WHERE SNOW PACK WILL EXIST TO NEAR 20 SE. HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO BE AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS NW TO THE UPPER 20S SE. THIS SFC HIGH BUILDS SLOWLY EAST TO THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. COLD TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NW TO NEAR 10 SE. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS WITH SOME SOME MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY FROM NEAR 20 NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S FAR SOUTH AND WARMING ON SATURDAY FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH. MODEL SOLN SPREAD LARGE NEXT SATURDAY REGARDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF NEXT SYSTEM. HAVE KEPT FCST DRY THRU SAT AFTN ATTM MORE LIKE THE GFS SOLN BUT THIS MAY CHANGE WITH LATER UPDATES.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPILL SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM. FOR TONIGHT...ENERGY IN THE MID LEVELS WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...PERTURBING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. WELL AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY...WARM...MOIST ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WARM AIR ALOFT...AND THE DEGREE OF SATURATION/LIFT WILL DETERMINE PRECIPITATION TYPE. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT KCVG/KLUK WITH CEILINGS MOSTLY LIKELY REMAINING VFR. FARTHER NORTH...SATURATION AND LIFT WILL BE GREATER AS THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD PIVOTS NORTHEAST. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS...IT LOOKS LIKE KILN WILL SEE A PERIOD OF FZRA WHILE KDAY...KCMH...AND KLCK WILL MOST LIKELY SEE SNOW. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN COULD MIX IN AT KDAY...KCMH...AND KLCK BUT IT IS REALLY CLOSE. IN THE MORE PROLONGED PRECIPITATION WILL ALLOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO DROP INTO THE MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES FOR THE NRN TAF SITES. ON SUNDAY...MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO DIG/SHARPEN AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AS IT MOVES EAST/NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TAF SITES WILL LIKELY SEE A RESPITE IN THE PCPN THREAT BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z ALONG WITH CEILINGS VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR. AS THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...A LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING A SWATH OF RAIN AND SNOW INTO THE REGION. IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN AT KCVG...KLUK...AND KILN FOR RAIN BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z WITH PERHAPS PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT KDAY AND KCMH BEFORE TURNING TO A PERIOD OF RAIN LATE IN THE DAY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY FOR ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. OUTLOOK...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT IN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. MVFR CEILINGS TO THEN LINGER INTO MONDAY. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ063>065-070>074-077>080-082. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051-052. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ053>056-060>062. KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR KYZ089>093. IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR INZ058-059-066-073>075-080. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ050.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HICKMAN

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