Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 260144 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 944 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will keep dry weather over the region through tomorrow morning. Low pressure traveling across northern Ohio will bring showers Wednesday night into Thursday morning. High pressure and a dry airmass will return for Thursday night and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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The main focus for the update this evening was to adjust sky grids based on current satellite trends, and to assess the impact that the cloud cover is having on temperatures. The thickest cloud cover is currently stretching across the central / north-central sections of the CWA, running from north of Indianapolis through Chillicothe. Temperatures in this area are still in the upper 40s to near 50, and may not fall quickly overnight, especially with light northeasterly flow failing to go calm. Dewpoints are still fairly dry -- mid 30s through most of the CWA, and closer to 40 in the southwest. This at least provides the potential for temperatures to fall enough to support frost, though the winds and clouds may make it difficult. No confidence in any decision to expand the frost advisory, so it will remain in place, with the best chance for areas of frost in the extreme northern / northeastern sections of the ILN CWA. Previous discussion > High level clouds continue across the central part of the CWA this afternoon and are forecasted to remain over the area for the greater part of the night. At the same time, surface high pressure will slowly pull east. Given the high clouds overhead this would in general inhibit optimal radiational cooling but with winds mostly light across the eastern zones frost will still be possible. Have gone ahead and issued a frost advisory for our eastern zones to account for this.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... During the day Wednesday a shortwave will push east across the midwest with surface high pressure eroding from the area. In response to the shortwave a surface low pressure will form. A warm front will then pull north across the area. As this happens highs will warm into the mid to upper 60s across the southwest with highs in the upper 50s across the far north. Most of the area will remain dry Wednesday though as the shortwave remains just far enough west. Wednesday night into Thursday morning ILN will move into the divergent region of the trough axis with most of the PVA remaining north of the area. Surface low pressure will then track just north of the area Thursday morning. PWATs ahead of the system rise to around 1.10" (~1.05" on GFS and 1.20" on NAM) with both NAM and GFS soundings never fully saturating. Instability will also be hard to come by as the event will occur at night. The GFS has almost no instability at all (surface or elevated) while the NAM does have some elevated instability (100 - 300 J/kg of CAPE). Shear values ahead of the low are impressive. Both the GFS and NAM forecast soundings are showing SFC-1km shear values approaching 40 kts. SFC-1km SRH is also forecasted to be around 400 m2/s2. Due to the lack of instability though have kept only slight chance thunder in the grids. A surface cold front will then push through the forecast area Thursday morning ushering in cooler and drier conditions. The cold front will be weak though and only push temperatures back down to normal values for this time of year. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure will be centered over the area Friday morning. This will allow for dry conditions and light winds. The area of high pressure will push off to the east Friday into Friday night. Winds will pick up on Saturday out of the southwest. Wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph will be possible. These warm winds out of the southwest will bring much above normal temperatures to the area. High temperatures are expected to be around 15 degrees above normal, however still around 5 to 7 degrees below record at this time. The forecast high on Saturday at CMH is 75, record 80, normal 60. The forecast high on Saturday at CVG is 78, record 83, normal 62. The forecast high on Saturday at DAY is 75, record 82, and normal 59. A frontal boundary will work through the region on Sunday. Moisture is limited with this feature and therefore went dry to chance for precipitation chances. The best chance of some light shower activity will be across northeastern portions of the forecast area around CMH. High pressure will then work into the area Sunday night into Monday. There is not a significant precipitation signal for the end of the long term and therefore went with dry conditions. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A fairly solid area of mid and high clouds has been in place today, with a few very light rain showers or sprinkles in the Dayton area late this afternoon. With no low clouds expected to develop during the TAF period, VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Fog potential will also be very limited for KLUK, with clouds in place and winds that are unlikely to become completely calm. Light northeasterly flow overnight will turn to southeasterly on Wednesday, and will increase in intensity to around 10-15 knots. Winds will shift again to the south on Wednesday night. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible from Wednesday night through Thursday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for OHZ046-056- 064-065-073-074. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...Haines/Hatzos SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...Hatzos is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.