Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 270550 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1250 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak upper level disturbance will cross east through the Ohio Valley tonight and early Monday, initiating a period of rain along and southeast of the I-71 corridor. A low pressure system over the upper midwest on Tuesday will lift a warm front through the Ohio Valley. As the low crosses into Canada from the Great Lakes region, a cold front will drop southeast into the Gulf of Mexico and see showers and thunderstorms develop along it Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Clouds will continue to stream east northeast across the region overnight in advance of a weak disturbance in the Central Plains this evening. Some showers may develop into the Cincinnati Tri-State towards daybreak, although the better chance will hold off until Monday. The increasing clouds will keep temperatures from dropping off too much and any changes to low temperatures have been very minor. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Light rain will overspread the region Monday with the possible exception of areas north and west of metro Dayton. The low level jet riding northeast along the I-71 corridor and shortwave moving east will see the chance for rain increase in this area during the morning, then taper off early in the afternoon as these forcing mechanisms exit the immediate area. Models were trying to mix in some snow with this rain early on Monday but the warmer processes occurring over above-freezing surface temperatures has me remove this potential solution entirely. Highs on Monday will range from 50-55 in most locations. As the rain tapers off late in the day another stream of moisture will necessitate an increased chance for showers overnight, spreading from west to east. The warmer temperatures moving in with this secondary system will have overnight minimums in the 40s over the CWA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Tuesday continues the active pattern with a surface low and deepening trough over the northern plains approaches the area. With increasing moisture and instability over the region, onset of showers on Tuesday morning with a warm front lifting through the area and increasing moisture. The uncertainty will be in precipitation onset, and just how quickly the region will saturate and coinciding with the cyclogenesis pushing into the area. Some potential for strong storms with increasing instability and bulk shear. Tuesday night sets up a strong LLJ streak pushing into the Ohio valley, bringing a setup for potentially heavy rain with most solutions toward an along and south of the Ohio River solution for the heaviest rainfall. Efficient moisture transport/Precipitable Water values above the 90th percentile and a stalled boundary, and with a setup blocking ridge off the SE coast. The main question is in the details of exactly where the boundary will stall out before finally kicking east of the area Wednesday night bringing a cold front through the region bringing dry conditions through Thursday morning before a clipper system pushes through the region late Thursday into Friday. System begins as a rain/snow mix before all snow showers Thursday night as the system pushes through the area. Dry and seasonable conditions through the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Light returns are showing up on radar stretching from southern Illinois and western Kentucky eastward into far southern Ohio/eastern Kentucky. Just based on surface obs though, it does not appear that much of this is reaching the ground so far. As a result, will just have some mid level clouds across the area at the start of the TAF period. The low level jet is forecast to gradually strengthen as we progress through the pre dawn hours. This should allow for the pcpn to fill in some more and start to reach the ground as the lower levels begin to saturate. As a result, expect the best chance for rain to be at the southern TAF sites through the mid to late morning hours. Will therefore carry a prevailing -shra at KCVG and KLUK for a period and just have a vcsh later today at the remaining TAF sites. Cigs should drop down into MVFR category later this morning and then continue through much of the afternoon before lifting back to VFR this evening. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities likely Tuesday into Wednesday along with a chance of thunderstorms. MVFR ceilings may linger into Wednesday night and be possible again Thursday night. Wind gusts to 30 kts will be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...JDR AVIATION...JGL

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