Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 300709 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 309 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A PERSISTENT TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL THE START OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT CHANCES FOR MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY...FRIDAY...AND THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... A DEEP UPPER LOW IS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE LOW ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE TROUGH AND PASS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE ENHANCED FORCING FROM THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL HEATING DRIVEN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH CAPES WILL BE LOW...500 J/KG M/L...WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAINING COOL IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH...IT WILL NOT TAKE A VERY ROBUST UPDRAFT TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING OUT OF THE 70S. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT OUR REGION TO OUR EAST WHILE A DEEP UPPER LOW SPINS IN PLACE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. ANY REMAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND FORCING. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. EXPECTING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TONIGHT. ON THURSDAY... OUR AREA WILL BE CENTERED BETWEEN THE EXITING SHORTWAVE FROM TODAY...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MODELS ARE HINTING AT ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...WITH THERE ALSO BEING INDICATIONS OF WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THE TWO SHORTWAVES...AM THINKING THAT THURSDAY WILL REMAIN DRY. WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED THURSDAY...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER 500-1000 HPA HEIGHTS MOVING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OF OUR ZONES BY THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY WILL SEE A REBOUND OF TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL. THIS WILL BE DUE TO WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO BRING A SLIGHT UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE...ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THIS TROUGH IN PLACE. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR DAY CONDITIONS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SOME SPOTTY SC IS FLOATING AROUND ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK AND MAY EVEN FILL IN A LITTLE BIT...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KLUK WHERE SOME PATCHY MVFR BR WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...WE SHOULD DESTABILIZE SLIGHTLY THROUGH LATE MORNING AND ON INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES WHERE THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE A LITTLE BETTER. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD MAKE IT ALL THE WAY DOWN TO KLUK/KCVG THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL COVER THE THREAT WITH JUST A VCSH AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AND HOLD OFF ON ANYTHING FARTHER SOUTH DUE TO LOW PREDICTABILITY. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LATTO NEAR TERM...LATTO SHORT TERM...LATTO LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...JGL

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