Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 280549 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 149 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid conditions will continue through the weekend...keeping heat index values near 100 in some areas. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will again be possible through the early part of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... We will likely continue to see some mid to high level cloudiness from time to time overnight. With some partial clearing and light winds, some patchy fog development will be possible later tonight. Temperatures are already down into the low to mid 70s across much of the area but they will probably not fall too much more given dewpoints are mainly running in the lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... The mid/upper level ridge again dominates the weather for Sunday in especially the southeast...with the expectation that daytime heat index values could approach 100 again in the southeast forecast area with afternoon thunderstorm development again...with enough instability and the potential for higher DCAPE values bringing gusty winds with slow storm motion and moist environment also bringing potential for heavy rain. Will have to monitor closely...as if enough activity develops...may diminish high heat index potential. A weak shortwave will skirt to the south of the area on the back side of the ridge on Monday...which will again serve as a focus of thunderstorm development in the afternoon. Temperatures will moderate some with the ridge beginning to retreat. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short wave over Hudson Bay at the beginning of the period will dig southeast and carve out a trough across the northeast United States. This will push a cold front through the region on Wednesday. There is not much moisture with this front and forcing looks weak... although cannot rule out some showers and thunderstorms in northern counties. Warm and humid conditions will persist ahead of the front. But a cooler and drier airmass will spread in for the rest of the week...with temperatures at or slightly below normal. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Conditions are VFR to start. BR is forecast reduce visibilities early this morning in the very humid airmass, especially after rainfall that occurred on Saturday. VFR will return by mid morning with the rising sun. Convection may occur during the afternoon, so thunderstorms could be added to later forecasts. Otherwise, sky cover will consist mainly of mid and high clouds left over from earlier convection. Winds will be under 10 knots out of the northeast. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible through Wednesday...mainly in the afternoon and evening.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDR NEAR TERM...Coniglio/JGL SHORT TERM...JDR LONG TERM... AVIATION...JGL

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