Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 280549
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
149 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016
Hot and humid conditions will continue through the
weekend...keeping heat index values near 100 in some areas.
Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will again be possible
through the early part of the week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
We will likely continue to see some mid to high level cloudiness
from time to time overnight. With some partial clearing and light
winds, some patchy fog development will be possible later
tonight. Temperatures are already down into the low to mid 70s
across much of the area but they will probably not fall too much
more given dewpoints are mainly running in the lower 70s.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The mid/upper level ridge again dominates the weather for
Sunday in especially the southeast...with the expectation that
daytime heat index values could approach 100 again in the
southeast forecast area with afternoon thunderstorm development
again...with enough instability and the potential for higher DCAPE
values bringing gusty winds with slow storm motion and moist
environment also bringing potential for heavy rain.
Will have to monitor closely...as if enough activity
develops...may diminish high heat index potential.
A weak shortwave will skirt to the south of the area on the back
side of the ridge on Monday...which will again serve as a focus
of thunderstorm development in the afternoon. Temperatures will
moderate some with the ridge beginning to retreat.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short wave over Hudson Bay at the beginning of the period will dig
southeast and carve out a trough across the northeast United States.
This will push a cold front through the region on Wednesday. There
is not much moisture with this front and forcing looks weak...
although cannot rule out some showers and thunderstorms in northern
counties. Warm and humid conditions will persist ahead of the front.
But a cooler and drier airmass will spread in for the rest of the
week...with temperatures at or slightly below normal.
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Conditions are VFR to start. BR is forecast reduce visibilities
early this morning in the very humid airmass, especially after
rainfall that occurred on Saturday. VFR will return by mid morning
with the rising sun. Convection may occur during the afternoon, so
thunderstorms could be added to later forecasts. Otherwise, sky
cover will consist mainly of mid and high clouds left over from
earlier convection. Winds will be under 10 knots out of the
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible through Wednesday...mainly in
the afternoon and evening.
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