Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 211516 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1116 AM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Multiple disturbances are expected to bring several rounds of showers and thunderstorms to the region through the weekend and into Monday. High pressure and dry conditions are then expected for Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Rain cooled airmass with exiting initial line of thunderstorms associated with a mid level mcv will put a kink in the temperature curves this morning over the region. By the afternoon most of the cloud cover, which is already exhibiting a marked thinning, will permit sun to warm readings back to near the earlier forecasts from this morning. By late afternoon, temperatures will not be changed though moisture will be increased throughout the region, making it even muggier if that is possible. Update centered on ramping up near-term pops and dissipating them early this afternoon, and then having some late day and evening convection fire according to guidance given by a handful but not all of the models available. Pattern remains murky with a low confidence in model solutions regarding initiation and propagation of convection. Kept heat advisory in the books but think that we will be on the lower end of the temperatures. The mugginess of it all which is also taken into consideration is a foregone conclusion today and tonight. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Boundary is forecast to shift northward tonight and therefore the focus of shower and thunderstorm activity will also be further north. For tonight and into Saturday went with higher precipitation chances across the north. Cannot rule out isolated strong to severe storms with damaging winds and heavy rain the primary threats Saturday afternoon and early evening. Heat index values on Saturday will be similar to Friday and will be highly dependent on convective activity. Will continue to mention heat in the HWO and monitor for the potential for additional heat advisory headlines for Saturday, primarily again across the south. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Good chance that convection will be ongoing at the start of the period as a surface low moves across the Great Lakes. Storms will likely translate across the region through the night with some activity possibly lingering into Sunday. Strong to severe storms may occur with the greatest potential on Saturday evening when instability will be the highest. A cold front will move through the region on Monday with at least a low chance of some additional storms in the far southern counties. High pressure will build in Tuesday and Wednesday bringing less humid conditions. The high will move off to the east by Thursday but its influence will remain albeit with higher dew points. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Thunder has exited the TAFs and showers and stratiform VFR rain behind them will see a rapid improvement. Cigs have lifted quite a bit and are almost into an alto deck with little cu. Models are showing that convection remains possible this late morning and into the afternoon but confidence in where storms may initiate is quite low. Outside of convective activity, VFR conditions are expected. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible at times from Friday through Monday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for OHZ077>082-088. KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for KYZ089>100. IN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for INZ073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...Franks SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM... AVIATION...Franks

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