Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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153 FXUS61 KILN 231748 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1248 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Periods of rain can be expected today as an upper level low pressure system moves northeast into the Mid Atlantic States. Weak high pressure and a drier airmass will build into the area for Tuesday. A chance of precipitation will return for the second half of the week as a colder airmass settles into the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Isentropic lift will pivot across the area through the near term keeping rain chances in the forecast. With cloud cover, rain, and northerly flow, not expecting temperatures to rise much today. Winds will stay up through the day with isolated gusts at times around generally 20 to 25 mph. Visibilities will be reduced at times, however not expecting dense fog. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Any lingering precipitation this evening should taper off from west to east as the upper level low moves off the East Coast. Mid level ridging will then shift quickly east across the Upper Ohio Valley through the day on Tuesday. This will lead to dry conditions with highs in the mid to upper 40s. An upper level low will lift northeast into the Great Lakes region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Ahead of this, a strengthening low level jet will rotate up across our region later Tuesday night and into the day on Wednesday. Moisture is somewhat limited, but this may be enough to produce a few light rain showers through the day on Wednesday. It looks like we could have enough mixing through the day on Wednesday to allow for some breezy winds with some gusts in the 30-35 mph range possible. Good WAA will also help temperatures push up into the 50s for highs on Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The long term will open up with a longwave trough axis across the United States bringing a return to more seasonal weather for the area. Thursday morning a cold front will be pushing east of the region with temperatures falling into the mid 30s. 850 mb temperatures will also take a tumble as strong cold air advection pushes 850 temperatures down from 8 degrees C to 6 degrees C below zero. During the day Thursday as the low levels begin to cool lapse rates will steepen. As a result snow showers will develop. The main question for Thursday is will it be cool enough for all snow. Looking at the latest forecast soundings on the GFS the answer appears to be yes. Any precip Thursday morning will likely start off as rain and then transition over to all snow Thursday morning around day break as colder air rushes in. On Friday ridging will continue to build across the western United states allowing the longwave trough over the eastern Untied States to amplify. Another piece of energy will then dive south Friday helping to keep a low end chance of snow in the forecast. On Saturday another reinforcing piece of energy will dive south helping to push even slightly colder 850 mb temperatures across the area. This trend will continue into Sunday as 850 mb temperatures lower to around 14 degrees C below zero. This means that high and low temperatures will slowly fall everyday in the extended period. Highs in the upper 30s Thursday will be replaced with highs in the lower 30s by Sunday. Likewise low temperatures in the mid 30s Thursday morning will fall to around 20 degrees by Sunday morning. On Monday another upper level low will dive south across south western Canada with the upper level low that was over the forecast area exiting to the east. This will lead to a brief break in precipitation chances late Sunday into Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Off and on rain shower activity can be expected through this evening. With lingering low level moisture some drizzle can then be expected for the remainder of the night before tapering off. Cigs and vsbys will be reduced and range from LIFR conditions to MVFR conditions. Gradually expect an improvement in these conditions during the day on Tuesday. Isolated wind gusts around 20 knots can be expected this afternoon, however expect wind gust activity to subside by this evening. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings may linger into Tuesday afternoon. MVFR ceilings possible Wednesday and the again Thursday into Friday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Haines AVIATION...Novak

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