Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KILN 272038
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
438 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017
A cold front will move east of the area this afternoon. High
pressure will briefly build in behind the front tonight. A
frontal boundary will develop into the region late Friday and
linger near the area into Saturday night.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Cold front bisecting the forecast area will move out of our
counties by 6 pm. A bit of instability is developing ahead of
the boundary, so some thunder may occur. But for the most part
expecting scattered showers.
High pressure will build in from the southwest overnight. This
will allow skies to clear in the evening. However, expect mid to
high clouds to start spreading back in before daybreak. Appears
that there may be some valley fog across the southeast where
clouds will be later to develop. MOS blend looked reasonable for
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will move off to the east Friday morning. An
east-west front will begin to develop into the southwest
counties in the afternoon. This front will become sharper and
lift into the northern part of the forecast area Friday night.
Some showers may develop in western counties before the end of
the day. But activity will increase overnight as mid level short
wave moves through southwest flow which will induce a low level
jet, enhancing lift. Models are spreading elevated instability
across the region which could be sufficient for some severe
storms with large hail. In addition, there is a risk of heavy
rainfall. However, there is quite a bit of uncertainty on
details. Given model differences, forecast has leaned quite a
bit on the SREF. Forecast temperatures are on the warmer side of
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --While the models agree that there will be a frontal boundary
stretched across the region on Saturday, there remains to
differences in the placement and the timing of convection.
Majority of the models have the front and the pcpn running from
central Indiana northeast into northwest Ohio as dawn breaks on
Saturday. As sfc low move ne up the front in the ne TX and ern
OK, the front buckles northward on Saturday, allowing the srn
edge of the pcpn work also work northward. With the region split
by the front, there will be a wide range in temperatures. Highs
in the se will push into the mid 80s, while locations in the nw
will remain in the mid to upper 60s.
The region will be warm sectored on Sunday. An isolated storm
will be possible in the heating. Highs on Sunday will push into
For Sunday night into Monday an ejecting H5 low will push a
strong cold front ewd up the Ohio Valley. Line of convection
will reach the fa late Sunday night and may be lingering in the
eastern counties at the beginning of Monday.
Behind the front, much colder air will work into the region. The
GFS is the wettest with the wrap around moisture. Ran a blend of
the PoPs for the middle of the week by carry low chance PoPs.
Highs will be in the 60s.
By the end of the week, temperatures another cutoff low pushes
another round of pcpn east of the Mississippi.
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.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cold front will move through the Columbus terminals in the next
few hours. Showers and possibly some thunder may occur
immediately along the front. Winds shift to west southwest
behind the front and will be gusty until around 00Z. Generally
VFR ceilings will occur through the afternoon. These clouds will
diminish in the evening.
High pressure will build in overnight allowing for winds to
weaken further and then back to the south southeast before 12Z.
This direction will persist through the end of the TAF period.
Appears that valley fog will develop which will bring some
visibility restrictions to KLUK overnight. Otherwise, VFR will
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities with a chance of
thunderstorms are possible Friday night into Saturday and then
again Sunday night and Monday. Wind gusts to 35 kt possible
Sunday into Monday.