Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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981 FXUS61 KILN 260547 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 147 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Southerly flow ahead of low pressure will provide warm temperatures and mainly dry weather this afternoon. Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop tonight through Sunday as the area of low pressure approaches from the west. Another upper level disturbance will then move across the area Monday afternoon into Tuesday providing a continued chance of showers and thunderstorms for the area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... A weakening area of showers stretching from central Indiana into central Kentucky has been progressing very slowly eastward this evening. The latest HRRR is showing this pcpn continuing to weaken as it spreads into our western areas tonight. A better chance of showers will work into our southwest late tonight ahead of a stronger vort axis that will pivot up toward our area. Have made some tweaks to the pops to slow down the pcpn a few hours. Instability will be marginal at best overnight and this should help limit any thunder. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Later Sunday morning the upper level low will take on a negative tilt as it pulls northeast towards the Great Lakes. As this happens low level temperatures will fall and work together with daytime heating to steepen low level lapse rates. NAM forecast soundings are showing MUCAPE values around 1000 J/kg while the GFS is showing values slightly higher, around 1200 J/kg. At the same time areas of PV will be rotating around the upper level low providing a source of lift. In general, global and high res models are indicating the best lift across our eastern zones Sunday afternoon with a secondary source of PV in association with the low moving into the western zones. Forecast soundings on both the NAM and GFS have k index values in the low 30s Sunday afternoon with LI values briefly turning negative. PWATs at this time are also around 1.00". Due to the ample moisture, sufficient lift, and instability have kept likely PoPs or greater for Sunday afternoon. It should also be noted that at this time 0 - 3km bulk shear is around ~30kts. Thanks to the shear, instability, low level lapse rates SPC has the area in a marginal risk for isolated small hail and gusty winds. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Showers and thunderstorms will taper off Sunday night as an upper level disturbance moves to the east. There will be a lull in the precipitation for much of the day on Monday before an upper level disturbance moves through Monday night into Tuesday. Precipitation will taper off Tuesday night. Moisture will be trapped across the area for Wednesday therefore increased sky cover and decreased temperatures some for Wednesday. The next system will begin to bring rain shower chances to the region on Thursday. Precipitation is expected to become more widespread Thursday night into Friday as a low pressure system nears the region. A cold front will move through Friday night. Precipitation chances will begin to decrease after the passage of this feature. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Low pressure centered over Western Illinois will impact aviation weather. Showers are developing in the southeasterly flow ahead of the low, affecting western sites first. The showers will take several hours to push across eastern sites in this slow moving system. Expect MVFR conditions within a few hours of the onset of showers as the boundary layer becomes saturated. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon. Kept VFR conditions with the thunderstorms. Precip should wind down later in the forecast as the low moves northeast and fills in. Southeast winds will become south, with speeds close to 10 knots this afternoon. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible late Monday into Tuesday morning.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...Coniglio

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