Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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087 FXUS61 KILN 171443 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 943 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure centered over the Plains this morning will build into the Tennessee Valley. Southwest flow around this high will result in a gradual warming trend through the work week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Latest KILN 17.12z observed sounding shows the DGZ saturated from about 1300 to 2000 ft agl. This has proven more than sufficient to allow flurries to even light snow across the area. Some observation sites are even reporting visibilities approaching 1 mile. Have gone ahead and upped the chance of precipitation and enhanced the light snow wording. We have also gotten reports of crews from ODOT being sent out for Warren and Hamilton counties. New zones out shortly. Prev Discussion-> Low clouds and flurries across the region at the start of the period will gradually decrease from the north through the morning. Have continued to use the RAP low level RH fields as a guide for when low clouds will diminish. Some of the remnant clouds from the band off of Lake Michigan will pass across the region this afternoon along with an increase in mid and high cloud. Generally used a blend of guidance for highs.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Surface high will build south of the region resulting in southwest flow through the period. Gradient looks strong enough to keep winds going through the night, so despite partly cloudy skies at worst, have not let temperatures drop too substantially, although forecast is on the cool side of guidance. Expect a good deal of sun on Thursday, but with snow pack, believe warm up will be retarded some. So did not go quite as bullish as some guidance in warming temperatures. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Tranquil conditions will start out the long term with a gradual warming trend. With increasing moisture cannot rule out some light drizzle or rain Saturday into Sunday. More widespread rain will move into the region late in the overnight hours Sunday night into the day on Monday. There are still some timing differences with this system, however models are in agreement that precipitation will occur and therefore went with higher precipitation chances. As the cold front moves through and colder air filters in there will be the potential for some snow before precipitation tapers off. In addition winds will also pick up with the frontal boundary and wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph will be possible with decent CAA. Tuesday will feature a return to dry conditions. Superblend looked too high with temperatures for Tuesday with cool airmass in place and therefore lowered temperatures. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MVFR deck, with patchy IFR ceilings, will clear from the northwest during the early part of the TAF period. There remains uncertainty when this will clear and have pushed this time back some based on recent observations and guidance trends. Once lower clouds clear, it appears that conditions will remain VFR through the rest of the TAF period. There could be some lingering lower stratocumulus with additional clouds with bases above 3000 ft translating across the area this afternoon. There will be mid and high clouds spreading across the region as well. West winds will increase up to 10 kt during the day and then back to southwest after 00Z. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Saturday afternoon into Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...Haines SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...

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