


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --701 FXUS61 KILN 111031 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 631 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms are possible each day through the weekend, particularly in the afternoons and evenings. Temperatures will be near to above normal for the week. A drier pattern is favored early next week, with near to above normal temperatures continuing for the foreseeable future. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Dry conditions are favored through at least mid-morning as some mid/high level clouds from upstream convection spill into the region through the morning. The mostly clear skies and calm winds will support the development of some river valley FG, particularly in SE parts of the ILN FA (the lower Scioto Valley). Some patchy overland fog is also possible in these areas, although widespread dense fog is not expected. Temps will bottom out in the upper 60s area-wide before rebounding to around 90 degrees this afternoon. Although a few spotty SHRA cannot be ruled out today (especially in two primary areas... west-central OH and near/S of I-71 toward the OH Rvr), there is a signal for slightly less coverage this afternoon than has been the case the past few days. This is owing to slightly lower dewpoints, which should mix out into the mid/upper 60s by late afternoon, suggesting a decrease in coverage by late in the day (opposed to late morning into early afternoon). Additionally, the remnants of an MCS may clip far NW parts of the local area (Mercer to Hardin Counties) early afternoon, but the bulk of convection associated with this feature should stay to the N of the local area. Certainly any slow-moving activity will bring with it the potential for brief heavy rain/isolated flooding, but this should remain very limited in coverage/scope. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Another dry overnight period is expected, although it will be warm/muggy with temps dipping into the lower 70s by daybreak. The short term period will bring with it two primary concerns: 1) SCT storms are expected to develop by Saturday afternoon amidst a very warm/humid airmass, which will contribute to strong instby on the order of SBCAPE >3000 J/kg. The approach of a broad midlevel trof will provide just enough forcing to initiate some SCT convection, particularly near/W of I-71 by early afternoon. Deep- layer shear will still be meager, so storm organization should be minimal. This being said, there will be a favorable deep-layer and LL thermodynamic environment (with DCAPE >1000 J/kg) to suggest that gusty to isolated damaging winds due to downburst/outflow tendencies will be possible with the strongest cores. This activity will linger well into the evening (and overnight) with plenty of instby to work with and some subtly-increasing forcing due to the approach of the S/W. Will mention the potential for a few strong to severe storms (as well as locally heavy rain/isolated flooding) in the HWO given the expectation for SCT to numerous storms Saturday afternoon. 2) With temps around 90 degrees and dewpoints in the lower 70s, heat index values will reach into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees by mid afternoon outside of areas impacted by storms. There are still enough uncertainties regarding storms/cloud cover across the area that there is not enough confidence to hoist a Heat Advisory at this juncture. But certainly the likelihood of heat index values to reach into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees will be mentioned in the HWO. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Without a clear forcing mechanism to drive widespread thunderstorm activity Saturday, there will likely be lingering thunderstorms throughout the overnight. A corridor of above normal moisture residing over the region may provide the potential for locally heavy rainfall/flooding depending on the evolution of thunderstorm activity during the evening hours. For Sunday, the trough and associated surface cold front move into the area providing an enhanced round of thunderstorms. The best chances are expected along and east of I-71 corridor (central & southern Ohio and northern Kentucky). This area would also have the best chance for isolated severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall. Confidence is increasing that the trough moving through Sunday will be strong enough to purge the area of deeper moisture into early next week. PoPs continue to trend lower for Monday and Tuesday with slightly less humid conditions despite the typical summer-like temperatures. Tuesday night through Thursday, moisture begins to return from the west, as a shortwave exits the central Plains. The GEFS is a bit faster (compared to the ECMWF ens) with the return of moisture due to less ridging over the Ohio Valley. Eventually, it does appear that more favorable moisture will be present for additional rounds of thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Dry conditions will prevail through the morning until some spotty/ISO SHRA/TSRA sprout about again by the afternoon. Coverage should remain very spotty, but may focus near/S of I-71 near KILN/KCVG/KLUK, so have kept a PROB30 for these sites to account for the low-end potential for a few SHRA in these areas. Some additional storms are expected well N of KDAY/KCMH/KLCK by early afternoon. FEW/SCT VFR Cu are expected past 15z, gradually decreasing in coverage late in the day as dewpoints mix out a bit. Some SCT mid/high clouds will also spill in from the NW through the period as several clusters of storms move to the E across the NW OH Vly. Some BR will be possible again tonight at KLUK/KILN. SCT to numerous storms are expected toward/beyond 18z Saturday. OUTLOOK... Daily episodic afternoon and evening thunderstorms are possible through Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KC NEAR TERM...KC SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...McGinnis AVIATION...KC