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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 090534
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1234 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST JUST AS QUICKLY ON SUNDAY WITH
A GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE EXPECTED TO WARM THE
REGION UP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK ECHOES THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL EXIT THE
FORECAST AREA SHORTLY WHICH WILL END THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
FOR THE NIGHT. HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL LINGER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE. FORECAST LOWS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL DEFINITELY HAVE A POST FRONTAL
CHILL TO THEM AND ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 40S...FLOW WILL TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY AND A CONTINUED WARMUP TO SPRING-LIKE AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD.

ZONAL WNW FLOW ALOFT AND WSW AT THE SURFACE WILL PREVAIL AND LET
TEMPS MODERATE UNDER FAIR SKY CONDITIONS. EXPECT A H5 S/W TO TRACK
NORTH OF THE REGION AND BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MONDAY
NIGHT FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF CWA. THIS ENERGY WILL PRIME A
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND A
SURFACE BOUNDARY/WARM FRONTAL PROCESSES ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE OF A PASSING LIGHT SHOWER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A FRONT STRADDLED ACROSS THE REGION.
THE GFS APPEARS TO THE FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE FNT POSITIONING IT NR
THE OH RIVER AT 12Z TUE.

H5 TROF IN THE NRN STREAM DIGS DOWN OUT OF CANADA TUESDAY AND INTO
THE UPPER MS VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE...A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER DEVELOPS ON THE FNT AND RIDES EWD TOWARDS THE FA. THE
GFS/ECMWF TAKE THE LOW ACROSS KY...WHILE THE CANADIAN HEMISPHERIC
MODEL IS STRONGER AND QUICKER AS IT TAKES THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO. THE 00Z ECMWF HAD BEEN MUCH WARMER WITH THE THERMAL FIELDS
THAN THE GFS...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF HAS NOW TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOLER
GFS. WILL RUN A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE STORM SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. UPPED POPS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
THE PCPN TO BEGIN AS RAIN...BUT THEN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER IN AND THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL DIP SOUTH.

AS THE LOW QUICKLY PASSES TO THE E WEDNESDAY MORNING...CRITICAL
THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH AND THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL
FOLLOW THEM. WENT WITH AN EARLY HIGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING DURING THE AFTN.

SOME CONVECTIVE CAA SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

BY THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. BY THE
END OF THE WEEK A LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES...BUT IT
WILL DRAG A CDFNT INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE
LIMITED...SO LEFT THE FORECAST DRY.

TUESDAY WILL BE THE END OF THE SPRING WARM UP AS HIGHS PUSH INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE STORM SYSTEM TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BRING COLD AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 IN THE NW TO AROUND 40 ALONG
THE OH RIVER. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL GO UP A FEW DEGREES
BEFORE BEGINNING TO FALL BACK IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
ARE FORECAST TO ONLY REACH THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BACK UP AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THE BACK EDGE OF LOWER CIGS WILL ARRIVE AT
TERMINALS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 75 BEFORE DAYBREAK. WHEN
THIS OCCURS...VSBYS WITH ONGOING MIST WILL ALSO IMPROVE. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE MORNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KT DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...LATTO