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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 211516
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1116 AM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Multiple disturbances are expected to bring several rounds of
showers and thunderstorms to the region through the weekend and
into Monday. High pressure and dry conditions are then expected
for Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Rain cooled airmass with exiting initial line of thunderstorms
associated with a mid level mcv will put a kink in the
temperature curves this morning over the region. By the
afternoon most of the cloud cover, which is already exhibiting
a marked thinning, will permit sun to warm readings back to near
the earlier forecasts from this morning. By late afternoon,
temperatures will not be changed though moisture will be
increased throughout the region, making it even muggier if that
is possible.

Update centered on ramping up near-term pops and dissipating
them early this afternoon, and then having some late day and
evening convection fire according to guidance given by a
handful but not all of the models available.

Pattern remains murky with a low confidence in model solutions
regarding initiation and propagation of convection.

Kept heat advisory in the books but think that we will be on the
lower end of the temperatures. The mugginess of it all which is
also taken into consideration is a foregone conclusion today and
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Boundary is forecast to shift northward tonight and therefore
the focus of shower and thunderstorm activity will also be
further north. For tonight and into Saturday went with higher
precipitation chances across the north. Cannot rule out
isolated strong to severe storms with damaging winds and heavy
rain the primary threats Saturday afternoon and early evening.

Heat index values on Saturday will be similar to Friday and will
be highly dependent on convective activity. Will continue to
mention heat in the HWO and monitor for the potential for
additional heat advisory headlines for Saturday, primarily again
across the south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Good chance that convection will be ongoing at the start of the
period as a surface low moves across the Great Lakes. Storms will
likely translate across the region through the night with some
activity possibly lingering into Sunday. Strong to severe storms may
occur with the greatest potential on Saturday evening when
instability will be the highest.

A cold front will move through the region on Monday with at least a
low chance of some additional storms in the far southern counties.
High pressure will build in Tuesday and Wednesday bringing less
humid conditions. The high will move off to the east by Thursday but
its influence will remain albeit with higher dew points.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Thunder has exited the TAFs and showers and stratiform VFR rain
behind them will see a rapid improvement. Cigs have lifted
quite a bit and are almost into an alto deck with little cu.
Models are showing that convection remains possible this late
morning and into the afternoon but confidence in where storms
may initiate is quite low. Outside of convective activity, VFR
conditions are expected.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible at times from Friday
through Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for OHZ077>082-088.
KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for KYZ089>100.
IN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for INZ073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Novak
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Novak
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Franks