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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 312206
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
506 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
SNOW AND RAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SNOW AND RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WHEN A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO CROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT PLAINS TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO A DIGGING 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. WHILE JET
STREAM ENERGY INCREASES AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN...AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN...INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY.

DURING THIS PROCESS...A BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SET UP OVER
THE ILN AREA WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST. LATEST
MODELS SHOW THE BAND AFFECTING LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF
CINCINNATI. PRECIP WILL START AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TYPE VARYING
WITH RESPECT TO ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE PROFILES. EXPECT DEFINITE SNOW
FOR THE NORTH HALF OF THE FA INCLUDING DAYTON...COLUMBUS AND
WAPAKONETA. FOR LOCATIONS ROUGHLY NEAR WILMINGTON...WARMER AIR
ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW A WINTRY MIX. FARTHER SOUTH FROM CINCINNATI TO
PORTSMOUTH AND ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF FZRA AND RA.

DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT NATURE OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BASED ON
QPF AND MODEL SOUNDINGS...WENT WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
SNOW NORTH OF DAY AND CMH. FARTHER SOUTH WENT WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR LIGHTER SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS. SEE
CLEWSWILN FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SURFACE LOW WILL PROGRESS UP THE OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTHERN INDIANA ON
SUNDAY. WHILE SNOW PERSISTS NORTH OF DAYTON...CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION ALONG THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW
PRECIP TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING. WITH MODELS
PRESENTING A WARMER SOLUTION...RAIN IS THE ANTICIPATED PRECIP TYPE
SOUTH OF I-70...WITH SNOW NORTH. A BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
WILL ENHANCE PRECIP ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE SIGNIFICANT
SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING FROM EASTERN OHIO TO PENNSYLVANIA
BY MONDAY MORNING. PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AREA WIDE
BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
SNOW IN THE NORTH WILL BE ENHANCED BY STRONG DEFORMATION IN THE NW
QUADRANT OF THE LOW. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY...WITH
OVER 10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER WEST CENTRAL OHIO...A FEW INCHES NEAR
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS...AND UNDER AN INCH AT CINCINNATI...PORTSMOUTH
...AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY.

COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ARE IN STORE FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE TEENS AN 20S MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
LOWS RANGING FROM THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE MID
TEENS SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH BRISK
WINDS TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS BELOW MINUS 10 OVER THE NORTH HALF OF
THE FA. WILL MENTION WIND CHILLS IN HWO FOR NOW...AND A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE ISSUED ACROSS THE NORTH.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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NORTHWEST MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH THE CENTER OF SPRAWLING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS
HIGH WILL PROVIDE COLD AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTER A COLD
START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. TUESDAYS HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NE TO THE
UPPER 30S SW.

FLOW BACKS WESTERLY A HEAD OF DIGGING TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES...
WITH A QUICK MORNING SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT/WED. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH. PCPN WILL LKLY MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN
IN THE SOUTH PRIOR TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WED AFTN. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S NE TO THE UPPER 20S SW. HIGHS ON
WED FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER/MID 40S FAR SOUTH.

REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN
TO BUILD SE BECOMING CENTERED OVER OHIO THURSDAY. COLD AND DRY
WEATHER ON TAP WITH WED NIGHT/S LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACRS THE
NORTHWEST WHERE SNOW PACK WILL EXIST TO NEAR 20 SE. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
TO BE AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS
NW TO THE UPPER 20S SE.

THIS SFC HIGH BUILDS SLOWLY EAST TO THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. COLD TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT FROM
THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NW TO NEAR 10 SE.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS WITH SOME
SOME MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
FROM NEAR 20 NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S FAR SOUTH AND WARMING ON
SATURDAY FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH. MODEL SOLN
SPREAD LARGE NEXT SATURDAY REGARDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF NEXT
SYSTEM. HAVE KEPT FCST DRY THRU SAT AFTN ATTM MORE LIKE THE GFS SOLN
BUT THIS MAY CHANGE WITH LATER UPDATES.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPILL SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM.

FOR TONIGHT...ENERGY IN THE MID LEVELS WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...PERTURBING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. WELL AHEAD
OF THIS ACTIVITY...WARM...MOIST ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP A
SWATH OF PRECIPITATION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...WARM AIR ALOFT...AND THE DEGREE OF SATURATION/LIFT
WILL DETERMINE PRECIPITATION TYPE. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT KCVG/KLUK WITH CEILINGS MOSTLY LIKELY
REMAINING VFR. FARTHER NORTH...SATURATION AND LIFT WILL BE GREATER
AS THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD PIVOTS NORTHEAST. BASED ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS...IT LOOKS LIKE KILN WILL SEE A PERIOD OF FZRA WHILE
KDAY...KCMH...AND KLCK WILL MOST LIKELY SEE SNOW. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN COULD MIX IN AT KDAY...KCMH...AND
KLCK BUT IT IS REALLY CLOSE. IN THE MORE PROLONGED PRECIPITATION
WILL ALLOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO DROP INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES FOR THE NRN TAF SITES.

ON SUNDAY...MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO DIG/SHARPEN AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AS IT MOVES EAST/NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TAF
SITES WILL LIKELY SEE A RESPITE IN THE PCPN THREAT BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z ALONG WITH CEILINGS VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...A LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING A
SWATH OF RAIN AND SNOW INTO THE REGION. IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
RAIN AT KCVG...KLUK...AND KILN FOR RAIN BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z WITH
PERHAPS PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT KDAY AND
KCMH BEFORE TURNING TO A PERIOD OF RAIN LATE IN THE DAY. CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY FOR ALL TAF SITES
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.

OUTLOOK...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR SUNDAY
NIGHT IN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. MVFR CEILINGS TO THEN LINGER INTO
MONDAY. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR OHZ063>065-070>074-077>080-082.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051-052.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ053>056-060>062.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR KYZ089>093.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR INZ058-059-066-073>075-080.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR INZ050.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN