Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 231748
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1248 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017
Periods of rain can be expected today as an upper level low
pressure system moves northeast into the Mid Atlantic States.
Weak high pressure and a drier airmass will build into the area
for Tuesday. A chance of precipitation will return for the second
half of the week as a colder airmass settles into the region.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Isentropic lift will pivot across the area through the near term
keeping rain chances in the forecast. With cloud cover, rain, and
northerly flow, not expecting temperatures to rise much today.
Winds will stay up through the day with isolated gusts at times
around generally 20 to 25 mph. Visibilities will be reduced at
times, however not expecting dense fog.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Any lingering precipitation this evening should taper off from
west to east as the upper level low moves off the East Coast. Mid
level ridging will then shift quickly east across the Upper Ohio
Valley through the day on Tuesday. This will lead to dry
conditions with highs in the mid to upper 40s. An upper level low
will lift northeast into the Great Lakes region Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Ahead of this, a strengthening low level jet will
rotate up across our region later Tuesday night and into the day
on Wednesday. Moisture is somewhat limited, but this may be enough
to produce a few light rain showers through the day on Wednesday.
It looks like we could have enough mixing through the day on
Wednesday to allow for some breezy winds with some gusts in the
30-35 mph range possible. Good WAA will also help temperatures
push up into the 50s for highs on Wednesday.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The long term will open up with a longwave trough axis across the
United States bringing a return to more seasonal weather for the
area. Thursday morning a cold front will be pushing east of the
region with temperatures falling into the mid 30s. 850 mb
temperatures will also take a tumble as strong cold air advection
pushes 850 temperatures down from 8 degrees C to 6 degrees C below
zero. During the day Thursday as the low levels begin to cool lapse
rates will steepen. As a result snow showers will develop. The main
question for Thursday is will it be cool enough for all snow.
Looking at the latest forecast soundings on the GFS the answer
appears to be yes. Any precip Thursday morning will likely start off
as rain and then transition over to all snow Thursday morning around
day break as colder air rushes in.
On Friday ridging will continue to build across the western United
states allowing the longwave trough over the eastern Untied States
to amplify. Another piece of energy will then dive south Friday
helping to keep a low end chance of snow in the forecast. On
Saturday another reinforcing piece of energy will dive south helping
to push even slightly colder 850 mb temperatures across the area.
This trend will continue into Sunday as 850 mb temperatures lower to
around 14 degrees C below zero. This means that high and low
temperatures will slowly fall everyday in the extended period. Highs
in the upper 30s Thursday will be replaced with highs in the lower
30s by Sunday. Likewise low temperatures in the mid 30s Thursday
morning will fall to around 20 degrees by Sunday morning.
On Monday another upper level low will dive south across south
western Canada with the upper level low that was over the forecast
area exiting to the east. This will lead to a brief break in
precipitation chances late Sunday into Monday.
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Off and on rain shower activity can be expected through this
evening. With lingering low level moisture some drizzle can then
be expected for the remainder of the night before tapering off.
Cigs and vsbys will be reduced and range from LIFR conditions to
MVFR conditions. Gradually expect an improvement in these
conditions during the day on Tuesday.
Isolated wind gusts around 20 knots can be expected this
afternoon, however expect wind gust activity to subside by this
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings may linger into Tuesday afternoon. MVFR
ceilings possible Wednesday and the again Thursday into Friday.
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