Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 012346 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 746 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH TO TENNESSEE... ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BRING MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS ON MONDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAY FURTHER DIMINISH TUESDAY WHEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR CINCINNATI POSITIONED ALONG A FRONT EXTENDING SW TO NE. DEW POINT PLOT SHOWS LOW TO MID 60S OVER KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN OHIO SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER...WITH UPPER 50S ACROSS OHIO AND INDIANA NORTH OF THE LOW. LAPS SFC BASED CAPES ARE IN THE 1000 TO 1600 J/KG RANGE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING IN THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW OF 50+ KNOTS ENHANCING STORM ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTH...A FEW CELLS ARE NEARING SEVERE LIMITS. THUS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 133 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM. THEREAFTER...INSTABILITY WILL DECLINE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND STORM STRENGTH WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT AFTER SUNSET...AFFECTING MAINLY NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL VARY RELATIVE TO THE LOCATION OF THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 50 NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH OF THE FRONT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH KENTUCKY MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...TO TENNESSEE MONDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE LIFT AND MOISTURE...PROVIDING GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BULK OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. INSTABILITY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY MAY BE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BUT NOT DISAPPEAR MONDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES SOUTH AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 FAR NORTHWEST UP TO THE MID 70S FAR SOUTHEAST. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPPER LEVEL TROF LAGS SFC LOW WHICH IS TO OUR EAST ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF A SHOWER OVER ILN/S SE COUNTIES EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS SOLNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER WITH PCPN ENDING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH NRN STREAM TROF SHARPENING UP AND DIGGING SOUTH ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AT MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU ILN/S FA WEDNESDAY AFTN. INSTABILITY CONTS TO BE MARGINAL...SO HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP PCPN MENTION TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS WED FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH. UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF THURSDAY AND SETTLES INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FCST WITH THE BEST THREAT OVER ILN/S EASTERN COUNTIES. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO NEAR 60 FAR SOUTH. SOME MODEL SOLN TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP IN HANDLING THIS UPPER LOW BUT THE GENERAL TREND TAKES IT OFF TO OUR EAST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW PCPN TO END EARLY FRIDAY. SOME MODERATION EXPECTED WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...HEIGHT RISES AND SFC HIGH TO BUILD IN SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND A MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO 70 SOUTH. E-W SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE REGION NEXT SUNDAY FROM THE NORTH. CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE...SO HAVE ONLY ADDED SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR A SHOWER. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM 70 TO 75. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE WARM FRONT...THEN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS WITH THE LOW AND FRONT OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST NEAR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KDAY...KCMH...AND KLCK. MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH TO WEST NORTHWEST GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...LOW-END MVFR CEILINGS (POSSIBLY IFR) WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. ON MONDAY...IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS...VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE. DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HICKMAN

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