Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 230247 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1047 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FA. IN ADDITION THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA THAT WILL WORK INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE FA STILL TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE BIGGER ISSUE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG DEVELOPMENT. SOME LOCATIONS ARE ARE ALREADY DROPPING DOWN TO A MILE OR TWO FOR VSBYS. ADDED PATCHY DENSE FOG WORDING INTO THE FORECAST HOWEVER IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME AREAS SEE MORE AREAS OR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT IN SHARPENING THE H5 RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNDER THE H5 RIDGE. SWRN PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY. H5 RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FA ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A POP UP SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER THIS. COOLED OFF THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO THE MID 60S IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE SW WILL STILL SE LOWS AROUND 70. LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF MOS HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AS WE HAVE NOT COME CLOSE TO THE WARMER MAV TEMPS. KEPT THE HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SITUATED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY SO WILL NUDGE TEMPS UP A BIT WARMER THAN WHAT IS SUGGESTED BY GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT INSTABILITIES TO DEVELOP BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. HOWEVER WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD AND LIMITED FORCING...THINK ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK BUT THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO EXACTLY HOW FAST THIS WILL HAPPEN. THE 12Z GFS REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT...PUSHING IT THROUGH FASTER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z CMC. HAVE GENERALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE MODELS...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING POPS FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY AND ON INTO THURSDAY...THEN LINGERING SOME LOWER END POPS INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER ECMWF/CMC. TEMPERATURES WILL OF COURSE BE DEPENDENT ON THE FRONTAL TIMING WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY BY KCMH...KLCK...AND KILN WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE FOG THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS DEVELOPING AT THE AREA TAF SITES EXCEPT KCVG AND KLUK. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD CU WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. HAVE VCSH MENTION IN AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KDAY AND KILN. OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR/SITES NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...NOVAK

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