Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 271937 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 237 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak upper level disturbance will move to the east this evening. A warm front will lift northward tonight into Tuesday. A cold front will approach the area Tuesday night and move through on Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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An upper level disturbance will continue to move across the area this afternoon. In addition an area of lift is focused across primarily eastern portions of the forecast area. This will allow for light rain shower activity to continue through the afternoon hours before tapering off this evening. A lull in the precipitation is then expected for most of the night. Temperatures will drop off this evening, however expect temperatures to begin to warm overnight with WAA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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Isentropic lift Tuesday morning will allow for some scattered shower activity. There is not any instability during the morning hours therefore left thunder out of the forecast during this time. Warm air will continue to advect into the area during the day on Tuesday allowing for temperatures to climb into the 60s. Another area of lift pushes through during the afternoon. There is some instability during the afternoon and early evening hours therefore have thunder mention during this time. Precipitation will very briefly decrease in coverage Tuesday evening into the first part of the night. An upper level disturbance approaches Tuesday night. Precipitation chances increase quickly for the second half of the night Tuesday night. Better instability works into the region and therefore have likely thunderstorm mention. Hi res models are showing several clusters of thunderstorms moving through. There is a severe threat across the area for the second half of the overnight hours. Damaging winds will be the primary threat. Some locally heavy rainfall will also be possible. Model soundings also show higher wind gusts beginning to move in towards the end of the short term with wind gusts even outside of thunderstorm activity around 30 to 35 mph.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A weak clipper type system will drop down out of Canada Wednesday night and pivot east across the Great Lakes Thursday into Thursday night. This will lead to a chance of showers for Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, with the highest pops across our northeast, closest to the better forcing. Depending on the timing, we may be cold enough for a brief mix across our northwest on Thursday. However, thermal fields off the forecast soundings suggest the pcpn should be mainly liquid during the day on Thursday, before possibly changing over to some snow from the north Thursday night before ending. Weak mid and upper level ridging will develop through the end of the week. A weak short wave may drop down across the Great Lakes on Saturday but it looks like any pcpn associated with this should remain well off to our north. In developing WAA, temperatures will moderate through the weekend with readings pushing well above normal once again. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... An upper level disturbance will continue to move through the area today. Isentropic lift will be present across primary the eastern TAF sites. This will allow for rain showers and MVFR cigs across the TAF sites this afternoon. Isolated IFR cigs will also be possible. The upper level disturbance and lift will move out of the area this evening. Precipitation will taper off this evening and cigs are expected to return to VFR. Another system moving through on Tuesday will bring additional showers and a decrease in cigs. Cannot rule out an isolated rumble of thunder, however kept any thunderstorm mention out of the TAFs at this time due to expected isolated nature. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings will be possible into Wednesday along with a chance of thunderstorms. MVFR ceilings may linger into Wednesday night and be possible again Thursday night. Wind gusts to 30 kts will be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Novak

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