Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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838 FXUS61 KILN 292007 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 407 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... East-west front extending across the region will lift north late tonight into Sunday morning. Gusty south winds will bring warmer temperatures on Sunday. A strong cold front will push through the region late Sunday night through Monday morning. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Boundary just north of I-70 will sag south this evening. Appears that some showers and thunderstorms may develop along this front overnight. The chance of precipitation will lift north as the boundary starts to lift north later tonight. In addition, remnants of convection in the mid Mississippi Valley this afternoon may make it into northwestern counties late tonight. Expect quite a gradient of temperatures across the front with west central in the lower 50s but mid to upper 60s in southern counties.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Front may still be in far northern counties at the beginning of the period but then will quickly lift north in the morning. Region will be in the warm sector through the day and most, if not all, of Sunday night. Cannot rule out a few storms developing with heating, but this only warranted slight chance PoPs Sunday afternoon. Showers and embedded thunderstorms will spread in from the west, mostly after midnight. Temperatures will soar well into the 80s Sunday. Readings will stay quite mild into Sunday evening with more of a drop later in the night as the precipitation overspreads the area. MOS blend seemed to have a reasonable handle on temperatures.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A cold front will move through on Monday. There is only limited instability therefore only have a chance of thunder early in the day. Shower activity will decrease through the day, however some wrap around moisture will allow for some light shower activity along and north of Interstate 70 through Monday night. Strong low level flow Monday into Tuesday will allow for some wind gusts up to 40 mph. Flow isn`t oriented the best therefore believe that this will limit winds from being even stronger. Dry conditions will be present on Tuesday and most of Tuesday night. A frontal boundary will work into the area on Wednesday allowing for rain shower chances. Better rain chances will work into the region Wednesday night into Thursday as an area of low pressure approaches the region. There are some differences in the exact location of the area of low pressure, however most likely solution is having the low move across southeast portions of the area or just southeast of the area. This will keep temperatures cooler on Thursday with most locations only reaching into the 50s. This system then moves out of the region leaving most of Friday dry. Another system south of the area will bring the chance for some light shower activity to primarily southern portions of the region on Saturday.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... East-west front is expected to sag south early in the TAF period and then lift back north between 06z and 12z. Appears that some showers and thunderstorms could try to develop along this boundary overnight. In addition, weakening showers and thunderstorms may move in from the west overnight. Confidence is not very high at this point and have just used VCSH for a period. Current indications are that ceilings would remain VFR with any activity. Once the boundary moves north, south winds will increase with gusts up to 25 kt late in the TAF period. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities with thunderstorms are possible Sunday night into Monday. Wind gusts to 35 kt possible Monday into Tuesday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible again on Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...

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