Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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886 FXUS61 KILN 311411 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1011 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the area today, bringing a good chance for showers and thunderstorms. After the front travels south of the region tonight, high pressure and a dry airmass will build in through the weekend. Cooler than normal temperatures accompanying the high will gradually warm to near normal by Sunday as the high shifts east. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Only a few minor adjustments to the forecast for today. With the couple of light showers in the nw counties, adjusted the current PoPs down and went with only showers for the ptype. Gradually expanded the PoPs through 18Z and switched from showers tp thunderstorms by the afternoon hours. As for temperatures, adjusted them down a few degrees in the se from around 90 to the upper 80s. The rest of the area looked okay.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Chance of showers and a few thunderstorms will persist early tonight as the front moves to Kentucky. Eastern locations being closer to the main body of moisture and forcing will have a higher chance for measurable precip. Precip chances will diminish to nil by Thursday morning as drier air filters in on a northerly low level flow. High pressure at the surface and aloft will then follow the upper trough to the Great Lakes. The dry airmass accompanying the high will keep precip out of the picture Thursday through Friday. Cold advection in the circulation around the high will lead to the first below normal temperatures in over a week, with highs mainly in the 70s both Thursday and Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Surface high pressure will settle in across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Friday night into Saturday. It will be dry with temperatures at first a little bit below normal on Friday with temperatures modifying to near normal on Saturday. For the remainder of the extended, Sunday through Tuesday, quiet weather is expected as a mid level ridge builds over the region while a closed mid level low rotates off the Atlantic seaboard. This "blocky" pattern will provide dry weather with a gradual warming trend. Highs in the 80s on Sunday will warm into the upper 80s to around 90 by Monday and Tuesday. These readings will be about 10 degrees above normal for early September. It will be great weather to end the unofficial last weekend of summer while greeting meteorological fall. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Mid level CIGS have mitigated the development of widespread dense fog. MVFR visibility restrictions at KLUK and KILN will improve quickly after sunrise. A cold front will sag down across our area today. The combination of this and daytime destabilization will lead to scattered thunderstorm development from late morning through the afternoon. Have selected the best time for storms in a tempo group with VFR CIGS continuing. In the wake of the front, expect decreasing clouds tonight as surface high pressure begins to build in from the north. Although drier air will begin to filter into the region on north to northeast winds tonight, some brief MVFR fog will be possible at fog favorable KLUK and KILN locations. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...Hickman AVIATION...AR

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