Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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000
FXUS61 KILN 180813
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
413 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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An upper level low pressure system will bring scattered to
numerous snow showers and an unseasonable cold airmass to the
Ohio Valley today. A fast-moving but dry frontal system will
reinforce the chilly conditions through mid-week. The next
chance for precipitation will arrive with a weak disturbance
moving through the Great Lakes on Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A sharp trough with very cold air aloft will pivot through the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today. With a strong northwesterly fetch
off Lake Michigan and steep lapse rates under the cold pool
aloft, scattered to numerous snow showers are expected,
especially from midday through the afternoon. Temperatures will
be tricky, with highs likely reaching the upper 30s to low
40s... but temperatures in the snow showers could briefly dip
to the low- mid 30s.
Expecting relatively warm pavement temperatures today, so main
concern will be quick drops in visibility under the most
vigorous showers. Can`t rule out a few tenths of temporary
accumulation on grassy areas... but this will quickly melt due
to the above-freezing ground.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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The snow showers will weaken and decrease in coverage quickly
after sunset this evening, leading to a cold and dry night.
Temperatures will drop into the mid-20s by morning.
Flow will shift to the west/southwest on Tuesday ahead of
a progressive shortwave diving into the Upper Midwest.
Efficient mixing will lead to gusty winds in the afternoon with
highs reaching into the lower 50s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Mid level northwest flow aloft will amplify some across the Great
Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday as embedded energy/upper level
jet dig southeast. This will push a cold front through our area.
This front is expected to pass through dry with mainly just some
clouds Tuesday night. In the CAA pattern behind the front, it will
be breezy once again with wind gusts between 25 mph and 35 mph.
Temperatures will vary given the CAA occurring during the day. Highs
will range from the lower 40s northwest to the mid/upper 50s far
south and southeast.
For Wednesday night into Thursday, the mid level trough axis is
forecast to shift into southeast Canada/New England. This will allow
surface high pressure to settle across the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley. This will provide a period of dry weather, decreasing wind,
and mostly clear skies. It will be colder, however. After lows in
the lower to mid 20s, highs on Thursday will range from the upper
30s north to the upper 40s south. These readings may still be on the
high side, so depending on the strength of the CAA, we may have to
decrease these readings in future forecasts.
The mid level flow begins to relax and becoming zonal Thursday night
into Friday. This will allow for a couple of embedded disturbances
to pass through the region. A chance of rain or snow late Thursday
night will transition to a chance of rain on Friday. After lows in
the upper 20s to lower 30s, highs will warm into the upper 40s north
to the mid/upper 50s south.
We will dry out for the most part over the upcoming weekend as mid
level flow begins to buckle, allowing for ridging to build northward
into the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will eventually modify/warm into
the second half of the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Main weather impact to the TAF sites over the 24-30 hour period
will be isolated to scattered snow showers Monday. These showers
are being produced by a mid-level trough which contains very
cold air aloft. This will cause the development of a broken
cumulus field and gusty (at times) winds from late morning into
the early evening hours, with best coverage likely in the mid-
to late-afternoon. The showers could also bring down visibility
and ceilings to MVFR levels, with localized visibility in
heavier showers down to IFR levels... especially at the
northern sites of DAY, CMH, and LCK.
The convection is likely to diminish after sunset as the trough
shifts to the east.
OUTLOOK...Winds could gust to near 30 knots Tuesday afternoon.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...