Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 180813 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 413 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
An upper level low pressure system will bring scattered to numerous snow showers and an unseasonable cold airmass to the Ohio Valley today. A fast-moving but dry frontal system will reinforce the chilly conditions through mid-week. The next chance for precipitation will arrive with a weak disturbance moving through the Great Lakes on Friday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A sharp trough with very cold air aloft will pivot through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today. With a strong northwesterly fetch off Lake Michigan and steep lapse rates under the cold pool aloft, scattered to numerous snow showers are expected, especially from midday through the afternoon. Temperatures will be tricky, with highs likely reaching the upper 30s to low 40s... but temperatures in the snow showers could briefly dip to the low- mid 30s. Expecting relatively warm pavement temperatures today, so main concern will be quick drops in visibility under the most vigorous showers. Can`t rule out a few tenths of temporary accumulation on grassy areas... but this will quickly melt due to the above-freezing ground.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The snow showers will weaken and decrease in coverage quickly after sunset this evening, leading to a cold and dry night. Temperatures will drop into the mid-20s by morning. Flow will shift to the west/southwest on Tuesday ahead of a progressive shortwave diving into the Upper Midwest. Efficient mixing will lead to gusty winds in the afternoon with highs reaching into the lower 50s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Mid level northwest flow aloft will amplify some across the Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday as embedded energy/upper level jet dig southeast. This will push a cold front through our area. This front is expected to pass through dry with mainly just some clouds Tuesday night. In the CAA pattern behind the front, it will be breezy once again with wind gusts between 25 mph and 35 mph. Temperatures will vary given the CAA occurring during the day. Highs will range from the lower 40s northwest to the mid/upper 50s far south and southeast. For Wednesday night into Thursday, the mid level trough axis is forecast to shift into southeast Canada/New England. This will allow surface high pressure to settle across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will provide a period of dry weather, decreasing wind, and mostly clear skies. It will be colder, however. After lows in the lower to mid 20s, highs on Thursday will range from the upper 30s north to the upper 40s south. These readings may still be on the high side, so depending on the strength of the CAA, we may have to decrease these readings in future forecasts. The mid level flow begins to relax and becoming zonal Thursday night into Friday. This will allow for a couple of embedded disturbances to pass through the region. A chance of rain or snow late Thursday night will transition to a chance of rain on Friday. After lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s, highs will warm into the upper 40s north to the mid/upper 50s south. We will dry out for the most part over the upcoming weekend as mid level flow begins to buckle, allowing for ridging to build northward into the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will eventually modify/warm into the second half of the weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Main weather impact to the TAF sites over the 24-30 hour period will be isolated to scattered snow showers Monday. These showers are being produced by a mid-level trough which contains very cold air aloft. This will cause the development of a broken cumulus field and gusty (at times) winds from late morning into the early evening hours, with best coverage likely in the mid- to late-afternoon. The showers could also bring down visibility and ceilings to MVFR levels, with localized visibility in heavier showers down to IFR levels... especially at the northern sites of DAY, CMH, and LCK. The convection is likely to diminish after sunset as the trough shifts to the east. OUTLOOK...Winds could gust to near 30 knots Tuesday afternoon.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Hickman AVIATION...

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.