Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 050521 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 121 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND WORK ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON MONDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT UP OVER THE HIGH TONIGHT...MAINLY AFFECTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BE CLOSER TO THE LOW AND THEREFORE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HAVE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. INSTABILITY IN LIMITED ON SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE KEPT THUNDER MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST. INTRODUCE CHANCE THUNDER FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BRIEFLY TAPER OFF FOR THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE FA WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE CASE AS WELL FOR MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN BECOME A QUASI-STATIONARY EAST-WEST BOUNDARY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. APPEARS THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OCCURRING THROUGH SATURDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS IN WEAK FORCING AT THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE LOWS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP VFR AT TAF SITES FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT LUK AND POSSIBLY ILN WHERE BR IS FORECAST TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF TAF SITES. CLOUD COVER WILL CONSIST OF FEW TO SCT CUMULUS AND OVC CIRRUS. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY WHILE SPEEDS STAY UNDER 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM... AVIATION...CONIGLIO

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