Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KILN 270011
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
811 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016
A cold front has pushed through the forecast area this afternoon
with cooler and drier weather behind it. An upper level low
pressure system is expected to move into the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley by mid week which will keep the weather cool due to clouds
and the threat for showers.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
The surface cold front has cleared the CWA with only some light
rain occurring across our eastern zones. Drier and cooler
conditions will then move in behind the front. The clearing line
should move through the forecast area this afternoon into evening.
Tuesday morning behind the front much cooler air will work into
the area with lows in the mid to upper 40s expected.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday a vertically stacked upper level low will start to drift
south keeping the low level gradient tight. Clear skies will also
promote deep mixing (~800 mb) which will allow winds to breezy at
times. Both GFS and NAM forecast soundings are indicating wind
gusts up to 30 mph possible at times (via momentum transfer) and
sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph. Current wind and wind gust grids
looked good so have made only minor changes here. Afternoon highs
Tuesday will also reach in to the lower 70s as 850 mb
temperatures hover just under 10 degrees C and 1000/850 mb
thicknesses fall to 1375 m.
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning the upper level low will
continue to drift south allowing PWATs to rise from under 0.40"
back up to just under 1.00" in places. By late Wednesday afternoon
the upper level low will be just north of the forecast area
bringing clouds and the chance of rain back to the area. Forecast
soundings on both the GFS and NAM also show some weak instability
Wednesday afternoon towards the south. Given the instability and
upper level lift can`t rule out a couple of strikes of lightning.
Wednesday night into Thursday the upper level low will pinch off
from the main flow and remain quasi-stationary over the Ohio
valley. The GFS, CMC, ECMWF, and UKMET have all come into pretty
good agreement with this. In general, this would support chance
showers and isolated thunderstorms with a smaller diurnal range
every day. Have lowered max temps a bit to account for this.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The GFS has continued to trend more in line with the ECMWF,
lingering the upper level low across the region through at least the
end of the week. As a result, have continued to nudge up pops each
day through Saturday and tweaked down temperatures a bit. Beyond
that, both the GFS and ECMWF are trying to lift the low
northeastward and out of the area, although the ECMWF is still
slower in that process. At this point, will keep Sunday and Monday
dry but again, if things continue to trend toward the slower ECMWF,
we may need to introduce some low end pops into early next week and
lower temperatures a bit more toward the end of the long term
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Surface cold front has pushed east of the TAF sites into western
Pa. Precipitation associated with the frontal system has pushed
off to the east. Conditions have improved to VFR behind this
front. Expect clear sky conditions through the overnight hours.
Drier air advecting in on west winds around 5 kts will inhibit fog
VFR conditions to continue Tuesday with only few to scattered
cumulus clouds expected.
Winds from the west will subside to around 5 kts tonight. On
Tuesday wind will back southwest and speeds will increase
with gusts above 20 knots.
OUTLOOK...Rain and MVFR ceilings are possible from Wednesday