Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 262340 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 740 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY...MOVING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INDUCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING ACROSS OUR SRN AND SERN CWFA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AS THIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST...SO WILL THE PCPN...AND THE ENTIRE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO CARVE ITSELF OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. POST FRONTAL CAA WILL RESULT IN LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERING WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S FAR NW TO THE LOWER 30S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AFOREMENTIONED LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS CAA AND SOME WARMING SURFACE WARMING RESULT IN STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE TRI STATE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...THE AFTERNOON HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING A THREAT FOR A FEW FLURRIES AND/OR SPRINKLES (DEPENDING ON NEAR SURFACE THERMAL FIELDS). HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. THESE HIGHS WILL BE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT WIND SHIFT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE NRN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THESE AREAS WITH ANY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES DISSIPATING AFTER PEAK HEATING. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR AS CAA INDUCED CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS TAKE THEIR TIME TO SCATTER OVERNIGHT. LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH WILL BE QUITE COLD BUT SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE RECORD LOWS. ON SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...BUT LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS ROBUST AS FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY REACHING THE 30S FOR HIGHS. LOOKS LIKE LOW MAX VALUES AT THE DAY AND CMH WILL NOT BE THREATENED...BUT CVG HAS A CHANCE OF AT LEAST TYING THEIR RECORD LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...THEN EAST OF THE REGION LATE. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE COLD...RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS EAST OF COLUMBUS TO THE LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SYSTEM. WITH A SLOWER SYSTEM THERE WILL BE MORE TIME FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THEREFORE EXPECT A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE RAIN SHOWERS. A RAIN SNOW MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. THE SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA. AFTER THIS POINT MODELS DIFFER AND THERE HAS BEEN RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES AS WELL. TRIED TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHERE THERE HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENCY AND MODEL AGREEMENT. A SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE ADDED IN THUNDER MENTION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AFTER THIS POINT THERE ARE SOME WEAK SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HOWEVER SIGNAL WAS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AND THEN SCATTER. HOWEVER EXPECT STRATOCUMULUS TO SPREAD BACK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 12Z. THIS DECK SHOULD BE NEAR THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD INITIALLY BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR. VFR CEILINGS WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY. AT THIS POINT IF ANYTHING DOES FALL THEN IT WILL NOT HAVE AN IMPACT ON FLIGHT CATEGORY. SO OPTED NOT TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...

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