Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 210541 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1241 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather will continue tonight into the first part of Tuesday as southerly flow increases on the back side of retreating high pressure. A weak weather disturbance will push east across the region Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night bringing the chance for a few showers. Dry conditions are then expected through Friday before another disturbance results in a slight chance for showers on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... The center of a large surface ridge will continue building east off the Carolina coast overnight. A southerly gradient will increase overnight on the back side of this retreating high. Initial batch of high level clouds moving east across the Ohio Valley to thin some with more cirrus upstream to thicken back up toward sunrise. Overnight lows generally expected in the lower to middle 30s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... A mid/upper level trough axis will pivot east across the Great Lakes Tuesday into Tuesday night. Models have continued to trend a little farther south with this feature. While the deeper moisture will remain fairly marginal, there may be enough for some scattered shower activity to develop through late afternoon across mainly our northwest. A chance of showers will then swing east across much of the rest of our area through the evening hours, with the best chance being across our north. Southerly flow ahead of this should help push temperatures up into the upper 40s and 50s for highs on Tuesday. As a result, any pcpn should remain mainly rain showers. however, as some cooler air starts to work in behind the system, forecast soundings are suggesting perhaps a brief mix across our north before the pcpn ends. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Period will feature a lack of strong forcing and deep moisture, probably resulting in below normal precip. High pressure and dry weather will be moving in on Wednesday behind a cold front, pushed by a broad northwest flow aloft. Though the atmosphere will be dry overall, clouds may increase Wednesday night until the axis of an upper trough moves through on Thursday. Expect mainly clear conditions Thursday night and Friday as the high settles to the North Carolina coast. For Friday night and Saturday, a rather potent surface low over Southern Canada, driven by a sharp upper trough, is forecast to push a cold front to the Ohio Valley, bringing increasing clouds and a chance of showers. A few snow flurries may mix in toward the end of the event on Saturday night. High pressure and dry air are expected to follow the cold front for Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will vary with respect to advection patterns associated with the cold fronts. Chilly readings in the upper 30s to lower 40s Wednesday behind the first cold front are expected to rise through the 40s on Thursday and Friday before reaching the lower 50s on Saturday under gradual but persistent warm advection on a southwest flow. After the next cold front passes Saturday night, look for highs mainly in the 30s Sunday and Monday due to cold advection on a northerly flow. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR conditions are generally expected through the TAF period. LLWS will be the main concern through the overnight hours, with strong southwesterly winds just off the surface. Surface southwesterly winds will increase during the day, with gusts into the 20-25 knot range (possibly slightly higher at Dayton and Columbus). A cold front will move through the area during the evening, switching winds to the WNW. Winds may be slightly gusty again (20 knots or so) immediately behind the front. There is a chance of some passing showers, mainly at the northern TAF sites, and this will be covered with a VCSH. There is also a slight chance of some MVFR ceilings around this time frame, but prevailing VFR conditions still appear most likely. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...Hatzos

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