Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 290551 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 151 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Weak surface low pressure and a frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary over the central Ohio Valley through Saturday night. As these features interact with waves of energy aloft and a persistent muggy airmass, showers and thunderstorms will be possible at times through the weekend. High pressure will bring drier conditions for Monday and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms will continue to taper off by midnight with further loss of daytime heating. Mid/high level clouds from evening convection will linger through the early overnight hours. With a very moist low level environment, expect that patchy fog will develop tonight, especially in areas that received appreciable rainfall earlier today. Models continue to hint at the development of a stratus deck for southern parts of FA late tonight, which may inhibit widespread and/or dense fog. Nevertheless, will need to monitor trends through the overnight as a delay in stratus development may lead to more widespread fog potential. Both temperatures and dewpoints remain in the mid and lower 70s, respectively, across the south this evening. With high dewpoints, do not anticipate much of a drop in temperatures for the overnight period, with forecast lows in the upper 60s in the north and lower 70s in the south. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Lingering weak surface low and frontal boundary over the region will make for an unsettled weather pattern for Friday and Saturday. As a broad upper trough slides over the Ohio Valley, these surface features will interact with ripples of mid level energy to generate showers and thunderstorms at times. Best chances will be in conjunction with daytime instability both Friday and Saturday. With only weak synoptic forcing and largely unimpressive wind shear, the unorganized convection will be mostly mesoscale driven. Have therefore blanketed the area with chance or slight chance POPs, highest during the peak heating hours both days. High temperatures for Friday and Saturday are forecast to remain a few degrees below normal in the low to mid 80s due to clouds and precip. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Weak frontal boundary will be moving through on Sunday. Moisture will be limited with this feature and have only a slight chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. High pressure and dry conditions are expected for Monday into Tuesday across the region. Some model solutions are showing a complex of storms working down into portions of the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The best chance of precipitation with this appears to be across western portions of the area. There have been some run to run inconsistencies and the GFS is maintaining a dry forecast during this time, therefore limited any precipitation chances to the chance category at this time. The 12z ECMWF has come in drier for Wednesday night into Thursday, which better corresponds with the GFS. Due to this went with a dry forecast to only a slight chance of storms during this time. Better chances of precipitation look to hold off until after the end of the long term period on Friday as a frontal boundary moves through the region. High temperatures will generally be in the 80s with low temperatures in the 60s to around 70. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Mostly light winds across the terminals this morning as convection from earlier this evening has since dissipated. The main story for this morning will be the potential for fog development. On the low light visible am seeing some development already as dewpoint depressions remain close to zero. Given the light winds, precipitation earlier and near zero dewpoint depressions think fog is likely. Have kept TAFs as is showing LIFR conditions possible. As the sunrises this morning fog will start to burn off giving way to mostly VFR clouds during the day. Forecast soundings also quickly destabilize this afternoon as a broad upper level low approaches from the west. Given the disorganized nature of the expected convection have only included a vicinity as of now but it is likely that most of the terminals will observe thunder this afternoon. Winds will be mostly light and from the west. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday and Sunday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kurz NEAR TERM...KC/Kurz SHORT TERM...Kurz LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...Haines

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