Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 230006 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 706 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE IN STORE FOR TONIGHT IN A RELATIVELY MOIST AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. MORE SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM IN A RELATIVELY MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. AFTER A LULL THIS EVENING...MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SHORT WAVE ENERGY LATER TONIGHT THAT MAY ENHANCE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENING TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE ARRIVING ON AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO ALL LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. LOOKS LIKE THE AREA COULD RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL ON AVERAGE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD END MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST. ANOTHER PROBLEM WILL INVOLVE STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT NUMEROUS GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE PROBABLE. IF CONDITIONS ARE AS SUGGESTED BY THE WINDIER MAV GUIDANCE...THEN A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ON SUNDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY NORTH OF ILN/S FA WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL... WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SE. ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH. CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU ILN/S FA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL BRING SNOW IN WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WITH BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN AND HAVE LIMITED ANY MIX TO THE SE. BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE SFC WAVE. EARLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO NEAR 40 SE. IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY PROVIDING CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY. A QUICK RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RETREATING HIGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WAA PCPN UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WITHIN A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL JET...WILL TEAM UP TO BRING SOME MORE SHOWERS TO THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OCCURRING AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KDAY...KCMH...AND KLCK. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH PERHAPS SOME BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS. ON SUNDAY...A DECENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD FROM THE LOWER GULF COASTS STATES TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO THE WEST BY MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING MOIST ASCENT WITH A SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL JET ALONG WITH INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE ONSET...FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES INTO THE IFR CATEGORY DUE TO LOCALLY MODERATE/HEAVY SHOWERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL BACK WITH TIME FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. SHOWERY WEATHER...BUT NOT AS HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE LATER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE IFR CATEGORY. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HICKMAN

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