Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 250132 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 932 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will keep dry weather over the region tonight through Tuesday night. Low pressure traveling across northern Ohio will bring the likelihood for showers late Wednesday into Thursday. High pressure and a dry airmass will return for Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... With clear skies and calming winds, temperatures are beginning to fall, already reaching the lower 40s in some of the outlying northern and eastern sections of the ILN forecast area. Min temps tonight / early Tuesday morning have been reduced slightly, prompting an expansion to the frost advisory. Otherwise, no changes were required for the going forecast, as weather conditions will remain very tranquil through tomorrow. Previous discussion > An extensive area of surface high pressure will be pushed across the Ohio Valley by a northwest flow aloft. In the dry airmass and subsidence associated with the high, skies will become clear and winds light. Under these conditions that are favorable for radiational cooling, temperatures will drop below 40 in most locations, with mid 30s expected in central Ohio closer to the coldest air located toward the northeast. Areas of frost may form over central Ohio, where a frost advisory is in effect starting at 3 am. Locations outside the advisory and north of the Ohio River may see patchy frost formation late tonight when temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 30s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As frost melts by around 9 am, dry weather is expected to continue Tuesday as surface high pressure moves gradually east. Increasing moisture and lift in the mid levels will allow cloud cover to develop, especially over northern locations. For Wednesday, low pressure will be strengthening to the west before moving through northwest Ohio Wednesday night. Moisture advecting into an area of enhanced convergence and lift ahead of the low will produce showers, some of which may begin to affect northwest counties Wednesday afternoon. Showers will become likely Wednesday night, especially in northern locations near the strongest lift and moisture convergence. A few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out near the onset of the showers, but weak instability will limit strength and duration of any stronger cells that develop. Perhaps a quarter inch of rainfall can be expected with this rather modest event. Temperatures will recover to the mid 50s north to low 60s south after the chilly start on Tuesday. Readings on Wednesday will be boosted a few degrees by warm advection, reaching the upper 50s to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Numerical model solutions continue to show a progressive mid level shortwave tracking from the plains into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley at mid week. This shortwave will track off to the east Thursday, and precipitation will end from west to east. Highs will be close to normal, ranging from the mid 50s north to the middle 60s south. Surface high pressure to build in at the end of the week, offering a return to dry weather conditions. Highs On Friday to range from the upper 50s north to the mid 60s south. Model solns showing differences in strength and timing with the next system moving through the Great Lakes next weekend. Warm air advection pattern develops with best moisture and lift north of ILN/s FA. Have limited pop to slight chance north and east with low chance far northeast Saturday afternoon. Temperatures to warm some with highs ranging from the lower 60s north to near 70 south. Next quick moving wave to track through the Great Lakes Sunday. Have limited any mention of precipitation to a slight chance of a shower north Sunday afternoon. Highs Sunday from the upper 50s north to the middle 60s south. Surface high pressure and cooler temperatures for next Monday. Highs are expected to range from the mid 50s northeast to the lower 60s southwest. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Winds are expected to diminish overnight as they turn to the northeast, with clear skies expected to prevail. This will result in VFR conditions for most of the TAF sites, though some MVFR/IFR fog will be possible at KLUK. By Tuesday morning, some mid-level clouds are expected to build into the region from the west -- generally in the 10kft-15kft range. Winds are expected to remain light, but will gradually turn from northeasterly to easterly. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible from Wednesday night through Thursday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for OHZ026-034- 035-043>046-052-054>056-064-065-073-074. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Hatzos SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Hatzos is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.