Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 011609 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1109 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WHEN A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... USING THE LATEST NAM...RAP...AND GFS...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTHWEST ACRS THE FAR NW ZONES THIS EVENING...THEN NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST OHIO OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR EVEN A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. WIDESPREAD PCPN WILL OVER SPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. MOST AREAS WILL SEE RAIN...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR NW WHERE A LITTLE RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY OCCUR. EVEN WITH THE RAIN/SNOW MIX...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH. FOR TONIGHT...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND LATEST NCEP OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A DEVELOPING DRY SLOT PUSHING IN OVERNIGHT. TRAILING DEFORMATION BAND MAY END UP STAYING JUST TO OUR NORTH. THE RESULT OF WARMER TEMPERATURES AND THE FACT THE DEFORMATION BAND MAY REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH...HAVE DROP ALL ADVISORIES. WHERE WINTER STORM WARNING WHERE IN EFFECT...WE NOW HAVE ONLY THREE COUNTIES IN AN ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WHEN COLDER AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TEENS NW TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTHEAST AS GUSTY NW WINDS PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE LOW WILL BE MOVING BE IN WRN PA BY 12Z MONDAY. PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AREA WIDE BEFORE DIMINISHING QUICKLY IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ARE IN STORE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WONT BE RECOVERING TOO MUCH MONDAY IN THE NW AND WILL BE FALLING IN THE SE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANG FROM THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE MID TEENS SOUTH. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... FLOW BACKS WESTERLY A HEAD OF DIGGING TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES... WITH A QUICK MORNING SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/WED. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH. PCPN WILL LKLY MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE SOUTH PRIOR TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WED AFTN. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S NE TO THE UPPER 20S SW. HIGHS ON WED FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER/MID 40S FAR SOUTH. REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN TO BUILD SE BECOMING CENTERED OVER OHIO THURSDAY. COLD AND DRY WEATHER ON TAP WITH WED NIGHT/S LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACRS THE NORTHWEST WHERE SNOW PACK WILL EXIST TO NEAR 20 SE. HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO BE AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS NW TO THE UPPER 20S SE. THIS SFC HIGH BUILDS SLOWLY EAST TO THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. COLD TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NW TO NEAR 10 SE. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS WITH SOME SOME MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY FROM NEAR 20 NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S FAR SOUTH AND WARMING ON SATURDAY FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH. MODEL SOLN SPREAD LARGE NEXT SATURDAY REGARDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF NEXT SYSTEM. HAVE KEPT FCST DRY THRU SAT AFTN ATTM MORE LIKE THE GFS SOLN BUT THIS MAY CHANGE WITH LATER UPDATES. && .AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEWD LIFTING BAND OF MIXED PRECIP WILL PASS OVER KDAY AND KILN AND AFFECT CENTRAL OHIO FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL BE PULLED IN FOR A GENERALLY RAIN-FREE DAY TODAY UNTIL AFTER ABOUT 19 OR 20Z WHEN PREVAILING RAIN FORESHADOWS AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THE LOW WILL BE E OF KILN AROUND 6Z AND WINDS WILL START KICKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...REACHING A GOOD CLIP OF 18KT OR SO AND HIGHER GUSTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WHEN IT SWITCHES DIRECTION. THIS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AS THE PRECIP ENDS FROM WNW-ESE. NAM HAS BEEN MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THIS SYSTEM AND IS NOTABLY DRY ONCE THE COLDER AIR GETS USHERED IN FOR MONDAY. WENT WITH CIGS ON THE LOWER END OF MVFR FOR THE LATER PART OF FCST AND EXPECT VSBYS TO INCREASE WHEN PRECIP SHUTS OFF BY DAYBREAK. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SITES NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/SITES SHORT TERM...HICKMAN/SITES LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...FRANKS

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