Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 241755 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1255 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Moisture will continue to stream into the region, bringing a chance for heavy rain today into tonight. A cold front will move through the area tonight, bringing a chance of severe thunderstorms, but also an end to the chance for heavy rainfall. High pressure will then move into the region on Monday, bringing drier conditions. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Moist southwesterly flow with a tropical connection evident on water vapor imagery. Mid level shortwave and associated low level jet to pivot thru the area today providing an enhanced chance for rain. Have slowed the return north of the e-w oriented front over KY. This will keep temperatures cooler today, especially across ILN/s northern counties. Expect a gradient to daytime highs with readings ranging from the the upper 40s far north to near 60 in the far south. Energetic mid level s/w to eject northeast from the plains into the Great Lakes and take on a negative tilt overnight. The front to push back north this evening with non-diurnal temperature rises. Very strong dynamics with 75-80 kt swrly low level jet developing into the Ohio Valley this evening. This will allow pw/s to increase and approach 1.4 inches...which would be a record for this time of year. Marginal instby expected to develop into the tri-state region and get pinched off overnight. With strong wind flow...damaging winds will be possible with this convection. Due to the favorable shear in the lower levels, isolated tornadoes will be possible. The best time for severe weather looks to be between 2 am and 7 am. With several rounds of rain this afternoon and tonight in this very moist environment have continued the flood watch.Addtional rain of 1 to 2 inches likely with local amounts in excess of 3 inches possible. Although the storms will be progressive, with an increase in pw/s...flash flooding will be possible tonight with this embedded convection. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... Tonight, a strong shortwave trough is forecast to take on a negative tilt as is lifts out through the nrn MS Valley. At the same time, a surface low deepens at it moves into the wrn Great Lakes. The low will whip a cold front up the Ohio Valley tonight. Wind fields will increase (50-70 kt in the 850-500 mb layer) and wind shear in the warm sector will contribute to increasing severe weather potential. SPC has placed the fa in marginal to slight risk for severe weather tonight. Damaging winds and heavy rain will be the main threats from these storms. Models are consistent in pushing the cdfnt through fa by 12Z, bringing an end to the severe weather and flooding threat, although rivers will stay out of their banks into next week. With a strong gradient overnight, winds could gust up to 35 mph. Surface high will build in from the southwest on Sunday. Expect early highs on Sunday in the east. In the west, temperatures will fall in morning, before recovering a little in the afternoon. Some high clouds will affect the region Sunday night into Monday as upper level energy lifts northeast in the flow. Temperatures will be a little cooler, but will remain above normal with highs Monday from the upper 40s north to the upper 50s south. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface high pressure will build across the Great Lakes offering dry weather into the middle of next week. Temperatures Tuesday look to be 10 to 15 degrees above normal, with highs from the middle 50s north to the lower 60 south. Mid level shortwave and surface low to eject northeast from the central plains Wednesday into the Great Lakes Thursday. Some timing and placement solution differences exist, so will limit pops to chance category Wednesday afternoon, with a return moisture. Then will ramp up pops to the likely category Wednesday night into Thursday. On the warm side of the system temperature look to remain 10 to 15 degrees above normal Wednesday with highs generally between 55 and 60. With mid level trof settling into the Great Lakes will continue a chance of showers across the north Friday. Temperatures cooler and closer to normal Friday with highs from the lower 40s north to near 50 south. As temperatures turn cooler the rain showers may mix with and change to snow late Thursday night/Friday. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Scattered areas of rain to diminish in coverage with a temporary lull in pcpn activity early this afternoon. MVFR to IFR CIGS to continue across the TAf sites today north of an east-west oriented front across Kentucky. This front will lift north this evening, with pcpn becoming more showery in nature, and a chance of thunderstorms given the stronger dynamics and marginal instby. Expect low level wind shear to affect the TAF sites for a period tonight with a strong low level jet pivoting through the area. Showers and embedded storms will end toward sunrise and CIGS will lift to VFR early Sunday with the surface cold front passage. Winds will shift to the sw and gust up to 35 kts with the frontal passage in the low level CAA pattern. OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Wednesday and Thursday in showers. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ026-034-035-042>046- 051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ089>100. IN...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for INZ050-058-059-066- 073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hatzos/Sites NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...AR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.