Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KILN 230003
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
703 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2017
Low pressure tracking east through the southern U.S. will be off
of the Mid-Atlantic coast by Tuesday morning. High pressure and an
upper level ridge will be in place for the Ohio Valley from then
through about Wednesday morning, when low pressure tracking to the
Great Lakes pushes a cold front through the area.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CWA will have two different influences on the weather tonight.
First and easiest to discern is the low pressure in the Gulf
states at both the surface and aloft that will track northeast
along the Appalachians. Southern and eastern portions of the CWA
will see prevailing rain spread in from the south as the stacked
low evolves. This rain threat will expand northward and westward.
Next is the subsequent northeast flow over the region, affecting
the northwest half of the CWA with the potential for fog
overnight. Low stratus in northern Indiana and southern Michigan
should expand overnight as a good temperature inversion traps
available moisture underneath it for a second night running. Some
spots well out of the CWA are showing the fog and low stratus
persist through the day, and fog has been put in the forecast into
early tomorrow northwest of the I-71 corridor, and a patchy dense
mention north and west of metro Dayton. Earlier HRRR model was
indicating a Lake Erie enhanced band of showers to drive southwest
from Kenton through Sidney towards Richmond IN late today. Did not
jump on this threat but still have brought in high-end chance pops
by later overnight with the southern system, though there will
likely be a definitive western edge of the rain/no rain somewhere
in my western or northwestern CWA.
Overnight temperatures will be seasonably mild and in the 40s for
at least one more night.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Rain will be over eastern CWA and exit to the east through the
day. Low stratus over northwestern CWA - if it develops - will be
hard pressed to move anywhere. Daytime highs will be nearly steady
and only see a 2-3 degree increase from overnight lows. Overnight
temperatures will not see large falls as the cold air will be slow
to offset the high humidity air but still fall into the lower 40s.
High pressure ridge crosses Tuesday and return southerly flow sets
up in the west by evening and then by later overnight in the east.
This return flow will inhibit lows from dropping off much from
Monday night`s values - again within a few degrees of 40.
As the low moves towards Lake Michigan by daybreak Wednesday, a
slight chance of a pre-frontal shower is possible in the far
northwest late Tuesday night.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A significant pattern change will take place during the period as
the well above normal temperatures are replaced by a more seasonal
The period begins with a sfc low located mid MS valley. Models are
showing a little spread on the exact location. Trailing south from
the low is a cdfnt. As the low lifts ne through the Great Lakes on
Wednesday, the front will push across the fa, so expect some
scattered showers to affect the region. Temperatures will still be
well above normal with highs ranging from around 50 in West Central
Ohio to the upper 50s in the the Lower Scioto Valley and NE KY.
Colder air will begin to filter into the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning, but thicknesses should be warm enough that any
scattered pcpn will fall as rain. By Thursday afternoon the
thicknesses will start to be cold enuf for snow to mix in as an ern
U.S. upper trof takes hold.
Scattered lake effect snow showers will affect the region Thursday
night into thru the weekend as upper level disturbances drop across
the Great Lakes. Temperatures will be slightly below normal with
highs in the lower to mid 30s and lows in the 20s.
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface low passing southeast of the region will result in
northeast winds 10 to 15 kt slowly veering to north through the
period. Rain north of the low will develop and spread towards most
of the terminals around 06z. It appears that drier low level air
will be replenished on the northeast winds, so central Ohio
terminals and possibly KILN will have ceilings remain VFR until
after 12Z. But elsewhere the rain, along with low clouds already
to the northwest will combine to bring IFR ceilings to KCVG and
KDAY. It does appear that the rain will cause MVFR visibility
restrictions to occur. Ceilings will become MVFR across all
terminals during the latter half of the TAF period, except KDAY
which will likely remain IFR. The rain will diminish and
eventually visibility restrictions will end late in the period.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings will continue into Monday night and
may linger into Tuesday. MVFR ceilings possible Wednesday and the
again Thursday into Friday.