Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 300242 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1042 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY AND SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST COAST. AT THIS SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW WILL PASS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY SKIMMING THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND DRAPING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST AND MOVE OUT OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FORECAST AREA AFTER 05Z AND SWEEP THROUGH BEFORE DAYBREAK. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SO HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. APPEARS THAT CLOUDS WILL DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT. FORECAST TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND SKIES SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST SOME CLEARING AND ALLOW FOR INSOLATION TO WARM THINGS UP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH MICHIGAN. THIS WILL SKIM NORTHEAST OHIO AND INCREASE THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER ON TUESDAY NORTHEAST OF COLUMBUS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS NOTED ON THE MODELS AND A FEW ARE STARTING TO INDICATE THAT PRECIP MAY DEVELOP ALONG IT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS THAT MAY FIRE ALONG THIS LINE WILL BE WEAK AND SHORT-LIVED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. LOOKING FOR MILDER OVERNIGHT TEMPS AS MOISTURE GETS PULLED INTO THE REGION AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL MAKE A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL VALUES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE DRY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE MID 60S IN THE TRI-STATE. AS THE HIGH SLIPS INTO THE APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT SWINGS OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MS VALLEY. MODELS ARE SHOWING A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE PACK OF OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS LEAD BY THE GFS/CMC. THE GFS/CMC ARE SHOWING BETTER CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS THINKING SO WILL BRING LIKELY POPS INTO THE FA THURSDAY. INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS/CMC PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...STALLING IT IN KENTUCKY. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW CAUSES A RIPPLE ON THE FRONT AND PULLS PCPN BACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE OF PCPN WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. INSTABILITY LOOKS LIKE IT STAYS SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH...SO ONLY WENT WITH SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BUMPED HIGHS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND ONLY WILL RECOVER INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY. COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE IN WITH THE HIGH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY A TROF AXIS WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS LIMITING TEMPERATURES IN THE NE TO MID 40S WHILE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. COULD BE A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL AS VEERING. THERE MAY BE SOME STRATOCUMULUS BEHIND THE FRONT THAT WOULD RESULT IN TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW CONCERNING POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. ON MONDAY CLOUD BASES WILL LIFT THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...

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