Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 191900 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 300 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain from the mid Atlantic to the Tennessee Valley today while a weak, dry cold front pushes southeast into the Great Lakes. The front will wash out tonight, while high pressure strengthens over the Ohio Valley into Friday. High pressure will then extend across the region into Saturday. The next weather system to affect the area will arrive late Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Surface high pressure will remain in control across the area this afternoon with a surface cold front currently located just south of the Michigan/ Ohio border. Highs in the lower to mid 70s will be likely across the area. Friday morning the cold front will wash out as the main shortwave energy heads east. Mid level ridging will then begin to move into the area with surface high pressure over the mid-Atlantic. Lows tonight will range from the lower 40s in the east/southeast to the upper 40s across the northwest. It does appear another morning of river valley fog will be possible, but think the duration and thickness will be even less than this morning. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... During the day Friday mid level ridging will continue during the afternoon with 500 mb heights around 586 dm. 850 mb temperatures are expected to rise to around 15 degrees C with low level thicknesses (1000/ 850mb) increasing to around 1385 m. Both of the aforementioned values would indicate highs in the mid 70s Friday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Well advertised pattern change is still expected to take place during this period. While large scale changes are in good agreement, there are discrepancies in the details of how this evolves. Main differences are in the southern stream closing off over the mid Mississippi Valley and how fast that opens up and gets absorbed into the developing long wave trough. The other is how quick/deep the northern stream energy is that carves out this trough. In general, there is a trend towards a slightly slower progression. Thus very warm temperatures will persist through the weekend. Some showers could work into western counties Sunday afternoon, but it is more likely that showers will hold off until later. Unsettled conditions will occur Sunday night through Monday night with a cold front gradually working across the region. Some showers could linger into Tuesday and possibly Wednesday. Much cooler temperatures will move in with Wednesday still looking to be the coolest day of the week with highs around 10 degrees below normal. The amplified upper pattern will be progressive, so as the trough moves east, short wave ridging will work in on Thursday. Thus it will dry out by then although cool conditions will continue. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... River valley fog will burn off between 13Z and 14Z. Otherwise, for today, surface high pressure will extend from off the mid Atlantic coast southwest to the Tennessee Valley. Meanwhile, a weak, dry cold front will push east/southeast into the western Great Lakes. Only FEW to perhaps SCT cirrus is expected with southwest winds around 10 knots, local gusts around 16 knots. For tonight, the western end of the weak, dry front will sag into northern Ohio will it will wash out by Friday morning. Winds will decrease overnight with some areas seeing calm conditions. Skies will be mostly clear. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Sunday night into Monday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...Haines SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM... AVIATION...Haines

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