Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 032022 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 422 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE DISSIPATING. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THEN THE QUESTION IS WHETHER ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM NORTH OF THE REGION IN UNSTABLE AIR MASS JUST SOUTH OF ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS MICHIGAN. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL OCCUR AND DROP INTO THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN QUITE A BIT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE I-70 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. FORECAST LOWS A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND COOLER MOS NUMBERS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THERE IS A REASONABLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL THAT A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR MORE STORMS ON FRIDAY ESPECIALLY WITH WEAKENING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WOBBLING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. MORE SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER EAST THAN FRIDAY... AS SHEAR AXIS LEFT OVER FROM THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO END WITH LOSS OF HEATING SATURDAY EVENING. IN A STAGNANT PATTERN WITH NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE ONLY MINOR VARIATIONS IN TEMPERATURES FROM DAY TO DAY AND NIGHT TO NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE DRY HOWEVER A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. ON WEDNESDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS ON HOW QUICKLY THIS FEATURE MOVES OUT AND WHETHER OR NOT A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT AND LINGERS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. THE ECMWF FAVORS THE SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. DECIDED TO LINGER THE PRECIPITATION LONGER THAN THE GFS HOWEVER NOT AS LONG AS THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION AROUND THE REGION AND ON THURSDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE DIURNALLY ENHANCED SO WOULD EXPECT A GENERAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE/CU AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...WILL ALLOW FOR A VCTS AT AT LEAST THE NORTHERN TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH ACTIVITY WE END UP SEEING WITH THE OVERNIGHT SHORT WAVE. IF WE END UP WITH ENOUGH CLOUD COVER...BR/FG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY MITIGATED. FOR NOW THOUGH...WILL TREND TOWARD PERSISTENCE AND ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR TO IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT THE MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE KLUK/KLCK/KILN TAF SITES. AS WE DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...EXPECT THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...JGL

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