Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 311422 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1022 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak upper level disturbance will move across the region today bringing a slight chance of rain towards the northern part of the area. A low pressure system will begin to approach the area Wednesday afternoon with a cold front moving through the area Thursday into Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Another warm day is expected this afternoon with dewpoints/ humidity values staying about where they were yesterday. Some high res models are showing weak development of showers along a boundary that is across our northern zones with a weak upper level disturbance helping to kick them off. Think this is a bit overdone as a large wedge of mid level dry air remains across the area. Slight chance PoPs more than cover this. Only minor changes to forecast at this time. Prev Discussion-> Mid and high clouds will continue to overspread the area today. A weak upper level disturbance will bring a slight chance of showers to the northern portions of the region this afternoon and evening. Went on the cool side of guidance for today. With weak upper level disturbance and additional cloud cover believe temperatures will be around or a little cooler than guidance. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Dry conditions are expected for the overnight hours and into the daytime morning hours on Wednesday. A low pressure system will begin to approach the area Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. There is not a lot of support Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night and therefore limited precipitation chances to a slight chance or chance. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms will occur during the day on Thursday as the area of low pressure and associated frontal boundary begin to work into the region. Precipitation chances will linger into Thursday night. With most of the precipitation holding off Wednesday afternoon temperatures are expected to soar into the upper 80s. Temperatures will be a little cooler on Thursday with additional cloud cover and precipitation. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... For the upcoming weekend and into early next week, the upper level pattern will transition to a broad long wave trough over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Surface high pressure on Saturday will give way to a weak disturbance Saturday night into Sunday. Have kept a low chance of showers and storms with this system. In a northwest flow pattern aloft, we may be between systems on Monday. It should be noted that models tend to not handle the timing of northwest moving systems. In either case, have kept Monday dry for now. Cooler readings with highs mostly in the 70s are expected Friday into early next week. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Few to scattered high based cumulus will occur through the day with extensive cirrus. Winds will eventually become northeast at less than 10 kt. High clouds will persist through the end of the TAF period with light winds veering to the east. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday Night into Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines/Novak NEAR TERM...Haines/Novak SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM...Hickman AVIATION... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.