Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 221050 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 650 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE ILN AREA IN A DRY REGIME...WITH WEATHER MAKING SYSTEMS FAR TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. WITH MODELS OVERESTIMATING CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD...SKIES ARE STARTING OUT MOSTLY CLEAR. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH CUMULUS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON BELOW A STRONG CAP AROUND 10 KFT. WARM ADVECTION ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RISE A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S WILL COMBINE WITH UPPER 60S DEW POINTS TO PRODUCE HEAT INDICES AS HIGH AS THE UPPER 90S BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SUB ADVISORY HEAT IN HWO. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM MAY BEGIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH WITH THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS FOR DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO RATHER WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT AND THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...SO THIS FORECAST REFLECTS THAT FASTER PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS. LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY. WENT WITH A NOTABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF THE FRONTAL LOCATION. HIGHS MAY BE HELD BACK IN THE 70S IN NORTHWEST COUNTIES DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP...WHILE LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER MAY REACH 90. FOR THURSDAY...COOLER READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL PLACE THE OHIO VALLEY IN A REGIME OF NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH ON BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF COMING THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH MAY ACT TO FOCUS SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THESE CHANCES MAY INCREASE FURTHER HEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING BEGINS TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF WITH GREATER AMPLITUDE OVER A LARGER EXPANSE OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE THE TIMING OF ALL OF THESE FEATURES REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN IN THE MODELS...WITH DIURNAL CONVECTIVE TRENDS ALSO EXPECTED TO PLAY A ROLE. POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE. WITH CLOUDIER AND MORE MOIST CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY MODERATE SOMEWHAT AFTER PEAKING NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL VALUES ON SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LIGHT SE LOW LEVEL FLOW EXISTS ON THE BACK SIDE OF RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WIND FLOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS A LITTLE DRIER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...SO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG HAS NOT FORMED. HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...HAS LED TO MVFR FOG AND IFR VSBYS AT KLUK AND KLCK. THE FOG IS SHALLOW AND WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING...WITH SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS DURG THE DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NW TOWARD SUNRISE WED. HAVE A MENTION AT KDAY/KILN AND AT 30 HOUR KCVG TAF. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...AR

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