Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 230901 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 501 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level ridge positioned over the nations mid section will dominate the weather over the weekend before finally breaking down at the beginning of next week. Hot and humid conditions are expected through the weekend with heat index values above 100 degrees. Periods of storms will form through the weekend due to the high levels of moisture. The chance for precipitation increases early next week with the expected passage of a cold front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Upper level ridge over the nations mid section builds a little east today. This will make conditions a ltl less favorable for widespread convection. Weak surface boundary and blyr instby of 2500-3000 j/kg may lead to isold thunderstorms this aftn. The best chance for thunder looks to be over ILN/s northern counties...where sfc boundary and best instby will coincide. After early morning fog burns off expect to see a good deal of sunshine. Hot temperatures...along with dewpoints in the lower and middle 70s will result in heat indices of 100 to 103 degrees. Therefore, have continued heat headlines. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... Isold storms which develop in the heating of the day will quickly dissipate this evening. Expect the remainder of the night to stay dry with humid lows in the lower and middle 70s. Another hot and humid day for Sunday with highs in the lower 90s and heat indices of 100 to 103 degrees. Have mentioned these hot conditions with the expectation that additional heat headlines may be required. Again a good deal of uncertainty exists regarding convection on Sunday. With the upper level ridge sliding east into the Ohio valley would not be surprised if the area remains dry. Have limited pops to 15 percent (slight chance) during the afternoon with a lack of forcing. Shortwave energy moving thru the Great Lakes flattens the northern portion of the ridge with a surface cold front pushing into the area Monday. Have introduced high chance pops into the nw late Sunday night and then spread these pops across the entire cwa Monday. Due to clouds and pcpn temperatures will be slightly cooler Monday ranging from the upper 80s nw to the lower 90s se. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Tuesday into Wednesday the front will remained stalled just south of the area and slowly start to wash out. Even behind the front though 850 temperatures are forecasted to be around 18 degrees C so am expecting temperatures near climo. Late Wednesday into Thursday a shortwave will approach the area from the west finally washing the leftover stationary front out. As this happens higher PWATs will again wash over the area with 2.00" + values moving in. Have trended PoPs up towards the end of the long term to account for this. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Conditions are VFR to start. FG may reduce visibility this morning at LUK and BR may do the same at ILN in a very humid airmass. Light wind at other sites may keep visibility P6SM. Sky cover will consist of cirrus circulating around an upper high centered to the west, and a FEW to SCT cumulus that form mainly during daylight hours. Thunderstorms are not forecast at this time due to weak forcing though we have an unstable airmass. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Sunday through Monday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051>056-060-062>065-070>074-078>082-088. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ061- 077. KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ089>100. IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ050-058-059- 066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Haines AVIATION...Coniglio

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