Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 291032 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 632 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY BEFORE A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AHEAD OF THIS SHORT WAVE...A STRENGTHENING 40-60 KNOT 925-850 MB JET WILL WORK ITS WAY EAST INTO OUR AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN AND THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW/LOW LEVEL WAA...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND NICELY TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WHILE QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...EXPECT MOST AREAS TO RECEIVE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE RAIN SO WILL NUDGE POPS UP INTO HIGH LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THIS EVENING. AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AS WE CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE...EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE MODELS HAVE PERHAPS TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF A RELATIVELY WEAK SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. THE NAM REMAINS THE WEAKEST AND FARTHEST NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE...KEEPING OUR FA MAINLY DRY. HOWEVER...WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...WILL GO AHEAD AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME LOW END POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FA FOR MONDAY NIGHT. ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN DAY4 /WED/ BEFORE CONFIDENCE UNRAVELS RATHER QUICKLY FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK - WHICH IS A BIT UNSETTLING AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WX EITHER THURS OR FRI...OR BOTH. WEAK BUBBLE HIGH BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR TUE NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH A BRIEF BOUT OF COLD ADVECTION WHICH WILL LIKELY TEMPER WEDNESDAYS HIGHS SOMEWHAT...THOUGH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL HELP US BACK INTO THE 50S /NORTH/ AND 60S /SOUTH/ BY DAYS END AS FLOW BEGINS TO RAPIDLY TURN AROUND BY WED EVENING. THIS DOWNSTREAM OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL/SHARP SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE MT/ND AREA...WHICH WILL INDUCE HEIGHT RISES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AS THE WRN RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND IS SHUNTED EAST. MAY SEE SOME SHOWER THREAT SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER WED NIGHT...BUT NOT AN OVERLY GOOD SIGNAL AS FORCING SEEMS TO HAVE SLOWED TO POINT TO BETTER CHANCES FOR THURS. GETS INTERESTING THU/FRI...AS INITIAL SHORTWAVE DEAMPLIFIES AS IT SLIDES EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST SYSTEM DEAMPLIFIES WILL TELL HOW FAR SOUTH FRONT PUSHES. MAY BE A LOWER-END THREAT FOR A STRONG/SVR STORM THUR IF A STRONGER FRONTAL SURGE OCCURS /GFS/...BUT DEAMPLIFYING NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SLOWING FRONT...OR POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS TO BE SPREADING IN EARLY THUR LIMITING HEATING COULD BE FACTOR - EITHER WAY - WAY TOO EARLY TO SAY - AND LATEST ECMWF IS HINTING FRONT MAY STRUGGLE TO EVEN MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BEFORE STALLING THUR EVENING. DID ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM NICELY THUR AHEAD OF FRONT ON GOOD LOW LEVEL WAA SIGNAL /60S AND 70S/. ADMITTEDLY THERE IS MORE INTEREST/CONCERN FOR FRI ALBEIT AT THIS TIME RANGE THERE ARE HUGE INCONSISTENCIES AND VARIABILITIES THAT WILL TAKE MANY DAYS TO GAIN CLARITY ON - BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE NATION/S MIDSECTION MAY PAIR UP WITH STALLED FRONT FROM THURSDAY TO BRING MORE SHOWER/STORM THREATS. 28.00Z AND 28.12Z ECMWF RUNS ARE CONCERNING IN THAT A DEEPENING CYCLONE RUNS NE THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRI AFTN/EVE WITH VERY STRONG FLOW FIELDS AMIDST A MOIST WARM SECTOR AS STALLED FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS WARM FRONT OVER OHIO/INDIANA. SIMILAR RUNS OF GFS ARE FLATTER WITH A COLD RAIN THREAT FOR THE OHIO VALLEY AS SFC LOW PULLS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE FURTHER SOUTH DISPLACED FRONT AND WARM SECTOR REMAINING SOUTH. EITHER WAY - APPEARS A DEEPENING SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH STRONG FLOW AND BAROCLINICITY AND POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER. GIVEN BIG ENSEMBLE SPREAD /PLUMES OF TEMP WHICH ARE PROXY OF VARYING SFC LOW TRACKS/...JUST KEEPING RAIN CHANCES MODERATE FOR FRIDAY WITH NO THUNDER MENTION UNTIL CLARITY IS GAINED...BUT THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN COMING DAYS GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED FORCING/THERMAL GRADIENT. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE HAS ALREADY STARTED TO PULL EAST THIS MORNING WITH OUR WESTERN TAF SITES REPORTING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. STILL EXPECTING WINDS TO PICKUP RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE EXACT TIME OF WHEN THE RAIN STARTS WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IS IN SOME DISAGREEMENT. MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING THE RAIN STARTING IN DAYTON AROUND OR JUST AFTER 21 Z. LATEST RUNS OF HRRR/ RAP/ AND NAM HOLD OFF THE RAIN A COUPLE OF HOURS LATER. AS THE RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LOWER. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM AND GFS SHOW MVFR WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN THEN LOOKS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...BINAU AVIATION...HAINES

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