Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 180247 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 947 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level disturbance will push east across the Great Lakes tonight. High pressure will bring dry and warmer weather on Sunday. A warm front will approach the region from the southwest Sunday night, and will move north through the area on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Latest round of pcpn, which is associated with an H5 s/w, is working through the fa. Back edge of the pcpn is reaching the wrn half of the fa, and pcpn should end by midnight to 1 am. Pcpn should fall as mainly snow, but some rain or drizzle might mix in at times. Clouds will linger, but some breaks could develop in se Indiana towards morning. Lows will range from the upper 20s to the lower 30s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... High pressure will move east of the region on Sunday, some early morning low clouds should move east and/or dissipate during the morning, leaving mostly sunny skies for the afternoon. With a return southerly flow and sunshine, highs will range from the mid 40s to the lower 50s. For Sunday night, mid level flow will begin to buckle. Warm, moist air will be drawn up from the southwest as a warm front approaches our region. Embedded s/wv energy in the flow aloft, along with increasing warm, moist ascent will allow clouds to thicken and lower with showers developing and overspreading the region late. Overnight lows, ranging from the mid 30s to the lower 40s, will be early on, with temperatures slowly rising overnight. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The long term forecast will generally be categorized as unseasonably warm, cloudy, and with higher chances and prolonged periods of rain than would typically be expected. Monday will see a gradual warming through the day from the previous night`s lows in the late evening, reaching into the 60s, possibly 70 degrees south of the Ohio River. This is due to a warm front situated from northern Michigan through Kansas City and the Ohio Valley receiving a good bit of southerly winds and Gulf moisture. Convergence in the warm sector appears to be limited in our CWA to the northwest, and mainly early. A chance for rain will persist in the nw half of the CWA as the aforementioned front becomes quasi- stationary and meanders slowly east through Tues. Better moisture pooling here and the proximity of the better dynamics nearer the front necessitate higher chances of rain here, but the sw CWA will likely benefit from the pattern without the rain. Unseasonably and nicely mild temperatures through Wednesday morning are expected here. All areas will likely exceed record high minimum temps Mon and Tues nights, with record highs possible during the day Tuesday. A surface low will track northeast along the front overnight Tuesday, and then high pressure building in the upper Midwest will help to nose the surface front into and eventually through the Ohio Valley Wednesday and Wed night. The coolest temperatures in the forecast will occur Wed night and Thurs and will still be 10 deg above normal on overnight lows and about 5 deg above normal for daytime highs Thursday. Tuesday will see moderate rain chances just northwest of the area then work in overnight. Used this moderate qualifier where pops were likely and higher through Wednesday. After the precip area gets shunted east Thurs and overnight, return flow sets up and another solid shot of rain is in the offing for Friday into Sat. Will cap Friday`s chance of precip at 50% through noon given the dry GFS through this time. Afterwards likely pops sound reasonable in the northwest. The rain footprint from overnight Friday migrates southeast on Saturday but models diverge significantly with GFS putting the rainfall south and east of the region, Canadian centered on southern CWA and axis running from Wheeling to Arklatx, and European evolving a warm front w-e along n of I-70 corridor then dropping sw along the Mississippi River. Given a wide variety of solutions on the weekend, have capped pops at chance category. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... An H5 s/w will swing through the srn Great Lakes this evening. Area of pcpn will affect the tafs for the first few hours of the period. Northern tafs will have the highest coverage, with a the pcpn being a little more scattered in the south. Precipitation will be snow north of KDAY and a rain/snow mix or will alternate between the two, due to some low level warming along with the occasional loss of ice nuclei. Visibilities will be IFR/MVFR due to the pcpn and fog. LIFR ceilings will linger for most of the night, before low levels scatter out just before 12Z in the west, then a few hours afterwards in the east. On Sunday, high pressure will move east of the region. Winds will shift to the southeast/south. After the low clouds break, scattered high clouds will be gradually increasing. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities possible on Monday. MVFR conditions possible at times from Monday night through Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...Sites

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