Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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352 FXUS61 KILN 180530 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1230 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered over the Plains will build into the Tennessee Valley this evening. Southwest flow around this high will result in a gradual warming trend through the work week. The chance of precipitation will return to the area this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Scattered mid clouds will push south across the region overnight. Sufficient pressure gradient will remain to keep winds up. This will keep temperatures relatively steady -- there could be a bit of drop at some sites if the wind temporarily weakens, but they will bounce right back when wind speeds return. Wind chill will be in the single digits either side of zero. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... During the day Thursday surface high pressure will slowly pull east with the pressure gradient quickly increasing across the area. Low level thermal profiles will quickly recover Thursday with 850 mb temperatures rising from 15 degrees C below zero to 2 degrees C above zero by the afternoon. Have gone ahead and raised high temperatures for Thursday given the strong WAA and mostly sunny skies. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A southerly low level flow will develop on the backside of retreating surface high pressure by the end of the week. This high will provide dry weather and moderating temperatures. Temperatures by the end of the week will warm up closer to normal. Expect highs on Friday to range from the middle 30s north to around 40 south. In WAA pattern a chance of a few showers will likely develop Saturday. Temperatures expected to continue to warm with highs Saturday from around 40 north to the upper 40s south. Mid/upper level flow to back with and deepening surface wave ejecting from the central plains Sunday into the Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday. In the warm sector on Sunday the best chance of rain shifts north thru ILN/s FA. Therefore, shift pops north and then limit pops to very low chance category. Expect temperatures to be 10 to 15 degrees above normal with highs Sunday generally between the mid 40s north to the lower 50s degrees. Models solutions have trended slower with system and associated associated surface cold front expected to sweep east through ILN/s FA later Monday/Monday night . Therefore, will ramp rain pops up late in the day into Monday night. On the warm side of the system, above normal temperatures to continue with highs from the upper 40s northwest to the lower/middle 50s southeast. With upper low tracking through the Great Lakes, a chance of precipitation will linger into Tuesday with rain changing to snow. The best chance will occur across the north counties. Temperatures turn closer to normal with highs Tuesday from the mid 30s northwest to near 40 southeast. In the wake of this system surface high pressure to build in providing dry weather for the middle of next week. Temperatures will continue close to normal with Wednesdays highs from the mid 30s north to the lower 40s south. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR will prevail through the period with just some mid to high clouds passing across the region. Southwest winds will persist, increasing to 12 to 15 kt during the day, but otherwise being around 10 kt. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Saturday afternoon into Sunday night. MVFR ceilings and visibilities along with wind gusts to 25 kt possible Monday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...

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