Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 290545 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 145 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...CONTINUING THE CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BRINGING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THERE COULD BE AN AXIS OF MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERDOING PRECIPITATION HOWEVER AND THEREFORE DECIDED TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED CATEGORY AT THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF TO MUCH MORE OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE IN THE MIDDLE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THE BROAD SW FLOW CONTINUES ON FRIDAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THE FORCING LOOKS TO BE BROAD AND EQUAL ACROSS THE FA...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO GIVE ANY ONE LOCATION A HIGHER POP. BEST TIMING WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT CANT RULE IT OUT IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO GO WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE POP. POPS SHOULD DROP A LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT...DUE TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE...BUT WILL NOT GO DRY FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE RAPIDLY IN COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT THE CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE NW BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND HIGH CHANCE IN THE SE. THE FRONT DROPS DOWN INTO THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT...SO INCREASED POPS A LITTLE. WENT WITH THE BETTER POPS IN THE NW EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO WEAKEN A LITTLE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ONLY WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE SE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL WORK BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S DEPENDING ON WHERE THE PCPN DEVELOPS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE WARM WITH MUCH OF THE REGION ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF...WITH SRN SECTIONS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL BE ACTIVELY EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING DUE TO POTENTIAL TIMING ISSUES. IN ITS WAKE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SITUATE ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SLIDE EASTWARD MONDAY. AS THE WINDS SHIFT AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH...EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER KENTUCKY. HPC SHOWING A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY WHICH IS NOT APPARENT IN THE SURFACE DEPICTIONS FOR EITHER TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE A MORE PRONOUNCED HOLD ON THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP SUPPORT THE ARGUMENT FOR A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND THURS. TEMPS WILL BE COOL TO START WITH. SUNDAYS HIGHS MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH...WARMING TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOSE TO THE LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THEN THERE SHOULD BE INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE REGION SO THAT MID AND UPPER 60S ARE MORE INDICATIVE OF OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND NEVER QUITE LEAVE THE FORECAST ENTIRELY AS THE NORTHERN PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR MAY BE A STRONG ENOUGH CONVERGENT FORCE OVER KY WHERE SOME MORE MOIST AIR WILL RESIDE. INITIALLY THOUGHT THUNDER FOR THE FORECAST BUT TONED BACK TO JUST SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...COINCIDING WITH THE LOWER CHANCES OF PRECIP. AFTER THIS TIME DAYTIME HEATING AND A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW WOULD NECESSITATE INCLUSION OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA MOVING INTO CWA FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH VCSH ALL TAF SITES FOR NOW BUT A BRIEF MVFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE IF SHRA PASSES ACROSS AIRPORT. CIGS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH PERIOD. SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...FRANKS AVIATION...PADGETT

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.