Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 010639 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 239 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER LOW TODAY...KEEPING WARM AND DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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UPPER AIR LOW IS MOVING EAST...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. MOISTURE IS GENERALLY DECREASING AND SKIES ARE CLEARING BEHIND THE UPPER LOW...AND CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY ONCE ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS EARLY IN RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DISSIPATES BY MID MORNING. INSOLATION AND AFTERNOON WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THURSDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WARM ADVECTION ON AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING. AT THIS POINT EXPECT PRECIP TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...REACHING EASTERN COUNTIES BY 12Z FRIDAY. THOUGH WIND FIELDS WILL BE QUITE VIGOROUS ALONG THE FRONT...IT APPEARS THAT THE ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION AT NIGHT MAY REDUCE THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY. IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONTAINING 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL PWAT...THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL BE MITIGATED BY DRY ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS AND BY THE RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FA BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE WEST...AND COOLER HIGHS AROUND 70 ARE IN STORE DUE TO COLD ADVECTION AND PRECIP.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY... TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF 40. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AT ALL SITES. POST FRONTAL STRATUS HAS BEEN MORPHING UNEVENLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH VFR BREAKS NOW DEVELOPING AT ALL SITES AND EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. WITH DIURNAL COOLING AND NORTHEAST FLOW AT 925MB...EXPECT THE STRATUS DECK TO EXPAND AND LOWER OVERNIGHT. IFR CEILINGS LOOK TO BE MOST LIKELY AT THE COLUMBUS SITES...AND HAVE INCLUDED THEM AT DAY AND ILN DESPITE THESE AREAS BEING CLOSER TO THE FRINGE OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. WHERE CLEARER SKIES ARE EXPECTED IN CINCINNATI...WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. WITH AT LEAST SOME LIGHT COLD ADVECTION FLOW...LIMITED VSBY TO MVFR AT CVG BUT ALLOWED IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEY AT LUK. VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT THE OTHER SITES MAY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY AND STRATUS DEVELOPS (I.E. CLEARER LONGER COULD MEAN LOWER VSBY)...BUT IFR IS POSSIBLE. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONGST COMPUTER MODELS OF ANY LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH LIGHT FLOW AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN...MIXING MAY LOSE OUT TO SUBSIDENCE AND CLOUDS MAY LINGER A LITTLE LONGER. THIS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT THE COLUMBUS SITES...AND HAVE KEPT A CIG THERE...BUT IT WILL AT LEAST IMPROVE TOWARD VFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...KURZ AVIATION...AR

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