Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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260 FXUS61 KILN 280601 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 201 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low will work into the region on Wednesday and influence the weather pattern through the remainder of the week. This feature will allow for cool and cloudy conditions with scattered shower activity. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Upper level low centered over northern Michigan to drop slowly south into the Ohio Valley. Skies which have been mostly clear through the evening will see an increase in clouds overnight. Any precipitation will hold off until close to sunrise. Have made only a minor change, slowing up precipitation with light showers developing into the northwest toward sunrise. With few clouds and dry air in place, temperatures will continue to drop off and then level out late with increase in clouds. Have lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Previous discussion... Clear to mostly clear skies will give way to an increase in clouds overnight as an upper level low approaches the area. Precipitation will hold off most of the night, however some light shower activity will move into northwestern portions of the forecast area by morning. Although initially there will be dry air in place, expect an increase in moisture and lift late in the overnight hours. Expect a quick drop off in temperatures for the first half of the night with less cloud cover and drier air. Went on the cooler side of guidance for low temperatures overnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Increased precipitation chances for the day on Wednesday as the upper level low pressure system approaches the area. Showers with isolated embedded thunder is expected. An initial push will move through during the morning and into the afternoon with additional scattered shower activity behind this first push of precipitation. Precipitation during this time will be somewhat diurnal with less coverage at night and more during the day. Cloudy and cool conditions will be quite prevalent through this time with high temperatures in the 60s and lows in the middle 40s to middle 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Closed upper low will be working gradually northward to SE Indiana on Friday. Showers will be likely in the moist and weakly unstable circulation around the upper low and its cold pool aloft, aided by low level convergence associated with an inverted surface trough. As the upper low continues to exhibit slow movement on a path to the central Great Lakes, a good chance of showers will persist through Saturday. When the low lifts farther to the northeast on Sunday, decreasing moisture and forcing will be evident. There will be a slight chance of showers in shallow residual moisture. Dry weather appears in the forecast for Monday and Tuesday under high pressure at the surface and aloft. Expect below normal highs in the 60s Friday and Saturday under clouds, precip, and low geopotential heights. A rebound back into the 70s should be noted by Tuesday in a regime of warm advection and insolation. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A large scale upper level low will dig southeast into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through the TAF period. Quiet conditions will start the forecast, but will quickly ramp up between 09Z and 15Z. Jet energy rotating around the digging upper level low will combine with some low level convergence above the surface to generate showers and thunderstorms. Given the current dry conditions across the region, and the elevated nature of the thunderstorms, ceilings should stay VFR for the most part. However, moderate to perhaps local heavy showers will lower visibilities at least into the MVFR category with some pockets of IFR visibilities possible where heavier showers/storms occur. Best chance for thunderstorms this morning will occur at the KDAY, KCMH, and KLCK terminals. This is also where a brief period of IFR visibilities may occur should the showers/storms become heavy in nature. KCVG, KLUK, and KILN will also see some showers/MVFR visibilities, but the threat for thunder may be a little less, so have gone with VCTS/CB at these locations. Operational models and high resolution models indicate that there will be two waves of precipitation today. The first wave will rotate east/northeast through early afternoon. Thereafter, surface low pressure and a cold front is forecast to push east through the region this afternoon and evening. The front will be accompanied with another round of showers and thunderstorms. Again, ceilings should remain mostly VFR but visibilities will fluctuate between MVFR and IFR in heavier showers/storms. For tonight, center of the upper level low is expected to drift southward toward KSDF while the surface low rotates east/southeast toward south central Ohio/eastern Kentucky. Models suggest that our region will be in a lull in terms of precipitation as deep moisture and lift will be to our east and west overnight. However, with winds becoming light to calm, and with cooling, low clouds and fog may develop, especially between 06Z and 12Z time frame. Will be looking at this period in more detail with the next TAF issuance. OUTLOOK...IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibilities possible Thursday morning. MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible with showers Thursday afternoon through Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...Novak/AR SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...Hickman

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