Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 231747 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 147 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH A SECONDARY FRONT MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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SHOWERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR OUT AHEAD OF THIS. COULD GET SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL ESPECIALLY AS THIS MOVES EAST WHERE THERE IS A BIT MORE INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY AT OR NEAR DAYTIME HIGHS. EXPECT READINGS TO START DROPPING OFF IN THE NORTHWEST BEFORE THE AFTERNOON IS OVER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... SUBSIDENCE WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A SWITCH TO NORTHERLY WINDS ALLOWING FOR COLD ADVECTION TO BEGIN AT THE SURFACE. THE MIN TEMP FORECAST BRINGS THE ENTIRE CWA INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 40 (OR EVEN AROUND 38-39) IN THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND THIS AIR MASS APPEARS QUITE DRY. 850MB TEMPS WILL ALSO BE AT THEIR COLDEST ON FRIDAY...LEADING TO A RATHER COOL MAX TEMP FORECAST THAT KEEPS THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE WILL STILL BE IN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER FLOW WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST. THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY SATURDAY...BUT THE IMPACT OF UPSTREAM MOISTURE ALOFT LOOKS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR A NARROW STRIP OF QPF BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY IN THE SW CWA...BUT THIS WOULD HAVE TO FALL THROUGH A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN THE LOWEST SEVERAL HUNDRED MB. IN FACT...AT THE TIME OF PRECIPITATION...GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOUD BASES OF AT LEAST 7000 FEET. KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY APPEARS THE BETTER OPTION FOR NOW...WITH THE SURFACE HIGH AND DRY AIR ARGUING AGAINST MUCH OF AN IMPACT FROM WHATEVER MAY BE COMING IN ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... GFS IS STILL SHOWING THESE H5 DISTURBANCES UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE AND NOSING INTO THE REGION MON/TUES WHERE EUROPEAN IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR WITH AN ELEVATED CONVERGENT LAYER BUT MUCH FURTHER SOUTHWEST AND OUT OF CWA. SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRYING SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS SHOWING A BROADENING OF THE H5 RIDGE AS IT MOVES OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES FOR MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE AT THIS TIME BUT KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS LOW AT 20% TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMUP EACH DAY...STARTING IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 SATURDAY...WARMING TO NEAR 80/LOW 80S BY WED. PM LOWS WILL BE COMFORTABLY COOL IN THE 40S THROUGH MON MORNING UNDER A DRY AIRMASS AND THEN WARM TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS IN THE MID 50S BY MID WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BUT OUTSIDE OF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS EXPECT CONDITIONS TO STAY VFR. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THE CEILINGS WILL DROP TO MVFR AND THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL FOLLOW SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE INITIAL FRONT. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER FURTHER AND CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 2000 FT. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 06Z WHICH WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO VFR. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH NORTH WINDS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...HATZOS LONG TERM...FRANKS AVIATION...

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