Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 252349 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 749 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BRING A WARMING TREND INTO SATURDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES AND AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...LEADING TO OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF PUSHING INTO WESTERN CWA WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO A RELATIVELY UNSUPPORTIVE AND DRY AIRMASS. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO THE SILENT 14% BUT DID INCLUDE SPRINKLES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BLOWOFF. UPSTREAM SITES OVER CENTRAL INDIANA HAVE ONLY TRACED AS FAR AS WE CAN DISCERN AND IT IS FALLING FROM 10KFT DECK WHICH REALLY DOES NOT WARRANT A REAL RAIN CHANCE THIS EVENING. IT WAS HOWEVER...COOLING THE AIR DOWN NICELY OVER EAST CENTRAL INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO WHICH NEEDED TO BE ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE FORECAST. BLENDED THE OBSERVED VALUES TO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOWS. FOR REST OF OVERNIGHT...THE HIGHER POPS RUNNING IN THE NWRN FCST AREA HAVE BEEN SLIMMED SIGNIFICANTLY TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. ALSO REMOVED THUNDER. SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DO NOT SUPPORT ANY SHOWERS IN NWRN CWA IN THE 6-12Z TIME FRAME. DID NOT WHOLESALE REMOVE THEM BUT WANTED TO STRONGLY TREND AWAY FROM TS AND CHANCE CATEGORY POPS. PREV DISC -> WESTERN FCST AREA UNDER THE STRONG RETURN FLOW COMBINED WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL YIELD WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE WEST. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE WEST BUT STILL ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE EAST. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS THE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY...A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DAY. PATH OF S/WV AND SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERALLY KEEP THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR SHOWER AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NRN FORECAST AREA AND POINTS NORTH DURING THE DAY. INCREASING MLCAPE VALUES >2000 J/KG IN THE NW FCST AREA WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL ACROSS THE WEST INTO LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL APPROACH 70 TO LOW 70S...WITH EVEN GREATER LL MOISTURE SURGE POSSIBLE. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE NEXT S/WV AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR REACHING 40-50+ KTS NEAR/AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN THIS TIMEFRAME...AND THEN COMBINED WITH PW VALUES OVER 2 INCHES AND STRONG LLJ DEVELOPING AND DIVING SE THROUGH SRN IN...SW OHIO AND NRN KY WILL BRING A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. PW VALUES APPROACH 2SD ABOVE NORMAL IN STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF LLJ. INTRODUCED HEAVY RAIN WORDING INTO THE FORECAST BUT PREMATURE FOR FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE ATTM WITH SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES IN MODEL RUNS. NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH LLJ AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...WITH GFS LESS SO THOUGH STILL SETTING A SCENARIO FOR PROLONGED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE FA. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH THE FA DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THESE THREATS SUNDAY MORNING ARE ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA. THE TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON ADDITION THUNDERSTORMS AND THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FA ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE AND ALONG A COLD FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AND A HAIL THREAT ALSO EXISTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY. EXPECT A CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY EVENING. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY HOWEVER STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BRING OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE BLOWOFF FROM THE UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AND TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH BKN SKIES AOA 10KFT. THIS SHOULD CLEAR UP FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT BUT THE RH PATTERN IS A BIT GRUNGED THROUGH THE COLUMN DEPENDENT ON WHICH MODEL AND WHICH POINT IS LOOKED AT. TRIED TO ANNOTATE SOME LOWER CLOUDS TOMORROW THROUGH THE DAY UNDERNEATH SOME HIGHER CIRRUS...SIMILAR TO TODAY. SSW WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION AND THE MODELS ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF ANY SHOWERS HITTING THE REGION UNTIL AFTER 18Z. IN THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST...A SLIGHTLY CLEARER PICTURE IS BEING PAINTED OVER CENTRAL OHIO WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE BUT MORE FAVORED TOWARDS CMH/LCK. H5 PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE WLY AND EMBEDDED H5 VORT MAXIMA WILL BE TRAVERSING THE REGION...AIDING TO THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW NIGHT AIDING IN THE EXPANSION OF ANY ONGOING OR DEVELOPMENT OF INITIAL ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST IS LOW STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL BRING THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS INTO FOCUS FOR TIMING AND A HIGHER PROBABILITY FORECAST. HAVE PRIMARILY GONE VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BROUGHT IN A LATE MVFR CIG/VSBY IN TS LATE IN THE 30 HOUR CVG TAF. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...JDR LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...FRANKS/SITES

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