Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 312012 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 412 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A PERSISTENT TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY DURING THE LATTER PARTS OF THE DAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF CWA DO NOT WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. CU FIELD IS WEAK AND NOT EXHIBITING ANY SIGNS OF DEEPENING OR STRENGTHENING. AS THE SUN ANGLE SHIFTS EVEN LOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE DAY...THESE SHOWERS AND CU WILL BOTH DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING AND LOWS WILL DROP TO SIMILAR VALUES AS LAST NIGHT...AROUND 60 FOR MOST LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A BIT MORE OF THE SAME IS IN THE OFFING FOR THE WEEKS END. A MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A KINK IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS WILL PERMIT MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS AT A MINIMUM...SO SCATTERED GARDEN-VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 OR IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 60 OR IN THE LOWER 60S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THIS PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY...RATHER NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER. 31.00Z AND 31.00Z GEFS/NAEFS ANOMALIES SUGGEST LOW/MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS AND TEMPS...AS WELL AS PWATS ALL REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGY IN THIS PERIOD. THUS IT IS NO SURPRISE TO SEE VERY LOW STANDARD DEVIATIONS ON ECMWF/GEFS MOS DATA...AND DETERMINISTIC MOS TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR SUMMERTIME NORMALS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THUS...VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE...LOWER 80S IN CENTRAL/WESTCENTRAL OHIO TO MID AND UPPER 80S IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY WHICH IS JUST ABOUT NORMAL SUMMERTIME WX FOR EARLY AUGUST. IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES...STILL UNCERTAINTY ON SUNDAY. RECENT TRENDS IN DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF IS FOR SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSION/QUICKNESS IN THE SHARP MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY...WITH WHATEVER WEAK FORCING MORE FOCUSED EAST OF THE AREA. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL MIDLEVEL TROUGHING IN A POSI-TILT FASHION FROM PA BACK INTO THE OZARKS AS A PIECE OF ENERGY SEPARATES FROM THE FLOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST. KEPT SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA BUT THERE IS NOT A GREAT DEAL TO FOCUS ON FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT. WITH SUCH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...HAVE TO THINK THAT IF ANYTHING OCCURS TO THE WEST /SOUTHWEST OHIO/SERN IND/FAR NRN KY IT IS GOING TO BE AWFULLY LIGHT/ISOLATED. SUN NIGHT/MON/MON NIGHT STILL LOOK DRY AS HEIGHTS RISE AND TROUGHING IN THE MIDLEVELS BECOMES FLATTER AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS GREAT LAKES IN WAKE OF THE SUNDAY WAVE. TUESDAY I AM PROBABLY A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE ON RAIN CHANCES IN THE NORTH...MOISTURE ADVECTION IS STILL PRETTY NEGLIGIBLE BUT THERE IS SOME INFLUENCE/MINOR LOWERING OF HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND WEAK RETURN FLOW THAT MAY PROMOTE A FEW STORMS TO SAG FROM MI/IND INTO OUR NORTH TUES/TUES NIGHT. NOT THRILLED ABOUT THE CHANCES AND I MAY PULL THIS CHANCE ON NEXT ISSUANCE IF SIGNAL DOESN/T IMPROVE. A LITTLE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE PUSH BY THURSDAY AS FLOW INCREASES WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES WITH ATTENDANT FRONTAL ZONE. OUR BL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BE INCREASING BY THEN /MID UPPER 60S DWPTS/ VIA EVAPOTRANSPIRATION SO THIS IS WORTH A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS. OVERALL...SUMMER WX FINALLY RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH 80S BY DAY...60S BY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... PERSISTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD OR AFTERNOON SUNSET. THERE COULD BE A POP UP INSTABILITY SHOWER/STORM BUT PROBABILITY IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 PERCENT. OVERNIGHT...REGION SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WE SHOULD AGAIN HAVE SOME MIST/FOG AT THE NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS OF KILN...KLUK...AND KLCK. KLUK WILL HAVE THE LOWEST CONDITIONS DUE TO THE RIVER VALLEY INFLUENCES. ON FRIDAY...EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WILL DIG SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA WHILE A DISTURBANCE EJECTS NORTHEAST NEAR OUR SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA. OVERALL...WE SHOULD SEE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT MID TO LATE MORNING WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY AND UPPER SUPPORT FOR ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...BINAU AVIATION...HICKMAN

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