Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 221948 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 348 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COOL EARLY THIS WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TONIGHT. CLOUDS PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. SETTING UP FOR COOLEST NIGHT SO FAR IN SEPTEMBER AND SINCE MIDDLE OF MAY. WIDESPREAD 40 TO 45 RANGE WITH UPPER 30S LIKELY IN THE COLDER LOCATIONS. WILL PROBABLY HAVE REPORTS OF SPOTTY FROST BUT NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH IMPACT FOR HEADLINES. FOG MAY DEVELOP IN RIVER VALLEYS BUT AGAIN NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION IN FCST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. DRY AIR MASS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. ATMOSPHERE WARMING OVER PERIOD AND EXPECT A GOOD RECOVERY FROM COOL MORNING LOWS. WILL LIKELY SEE BIG DIURNAL RANGE. HAVE GONE NEAR GUIDANCE BUT A BIT ON THE COOLER SIDE FOR LOWS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME MOISTURE POSSIBLY TRYING TO WORK UP FROM THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A S/W DIGGING UNDERNEATH THE ESTABLISHED UPPER RIDGE. HAVE KEPT A DRY FCST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE INTO LOW CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY. AS THE AIRMASS SLOWLY MODIFIES...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ERRED ON THE WARM SIDE OF DAYTIME HIGHS AND THE COOL SIDE OF NIGHTTIME LOWS GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS. THIS STILL PUTS TEMPS ABOUT 7-8 DEG ABOVE NORMAL ON HIGHS AND 4-6 DEG ABOVE ON LOWS. GUIDANCE REALLY ONLY HAD A 2-4 DEG RANGE ON BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD...INDICATING FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN AND THE FCST TEMPERATURES.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS ARE MOVING IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS WILL PROVIDE MAINLY VFR. ONCE THE FEW CUMULUS THAT REMAIN DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT...WITH ONLY A FEW CUMULUS EXPECTED TO FORM ON TUESDAY. UNDER LIGHT WINDS...VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED BY BR LATE TONIGHT AT LUK AND ILN. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PADGETT NEAR TERM...PADGETT SHORT TERM...PADGETT LONG TERM...FRANKS AVIATION...CONIGLIO

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