-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 181724
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
124 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL TEAM UP WITH A SLOW MOVING UPR LVL
TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL KEEP
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING TODAY. INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY IN AN ARC ROUGHLY FROM DAY TO VTA TO ACCOUNT FOR
SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR A DEW POINT BOUNDARY ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DIMINISHING FORCING
WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE CHANCE OF PCPN WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS EXPECTED ACRS THE ERN/SRN ZONES BY SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL GENERALLY BE THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 18.00Z GFS AND THE 18.00Z ECMWF FOR THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.

UPR LVL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SE ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
S/WV RIDGING TO BUILD INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. THE LINGERING TROUGH
IN THE EAST WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY. S/WV RIDGE IN
THE WEST ALONG WITH A WEAK CAP SHOULD PREVENT PCPN THERE.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...S/WV RIDGE WILL PUSH ACRS THE
REGION AS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. WE SHOULD SEE WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY A
SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTN ACRS THE
FAR NW WHERE CAPPING WILL BE THE WEAKEST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...S/WV RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA WHILE UPR
LVL CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
LOW WILL BEGIN TO EJECT NE TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL ONCE
AGAIN INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY ACRS WRN
AND NRN LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH A CONTINUING
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN
PLACE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AREA IS UNDER A MOIST EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...SUPPORTED BY A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL CROSSING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING. KEPT THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST BECAUSE
OF THEIR ISOLATED NATURE. ABOVE AVERAGE HUMIDITY WILL ALLOW BR
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES TO FORM TODAY WITH SOME OF THE
SHOWERS...AND AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER SHOWERS AND CLOUDS DECREASE IN A
REGIME OF CALM WINDS AND MOIST CONDITIONS NEAR THE GROUND. SINCE
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCLUDED VCSH NEAR
THE END OF THE 30 HOUR CVG TAF.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN/NOVAK
AVIATION...CONIGLIO