Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 240948 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 448 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COLDER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE EAST INTO THE MORNING. BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE AREA. CANNOT RULE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN CENTRAL OHIO. WITH SOME SUN FELT THAT GOING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WARMER GUIDANCE WAS PRUDENT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A SHORT WAVE WILL AMPLIFY AS IT DROPS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WITH MODELS TRENDING TOWARDS MORE DIGGING WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL THEN SWING EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS...THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS TRACKING A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLES. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVELS WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR MOST AREA TO START AS RAIN ON SUNDAY. EXCEPTION IS WEST CENTRAL OHIO WHERE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOSTLY IF NOT ENTIRELY BE SNOW. RAIN-SNOW LINE WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH THE REST OF THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 WHERE CHANGE OVER WILL BE EARLY ENOUGH TO COINCIDE WITH HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. MODELS HAVE YET TO LOCK IN ON THE STRENGTH AND THUS EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SO THERE IS POSITIONAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHERE THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. IN ADDITION THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS WHICH IF ONLY SLIGHTLY COLDER COULD RESULT IN MORE SNOW FURTHER SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SNOW FROM THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM LINGERING IN EASTERN COUNTIES INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEN THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN CLOUDS. WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING IN HAVE GONE BELOW MOS FOR HIGHS SUNDAY...PREFERRING A BLEND OF MODEL 2 METER TEMPERATURES. THEN RATHER COLD AIR WILL GET DRAWN IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. SO WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WHICH MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW. PRETTY DECENT MODEL SPREAD WITH THIS AND THUS HAVE STAYED WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY. THEN LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WARM AIR CAN GET DRAWN IN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. ANOTHER HIGH WILL START TO BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THEN READINGS WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO STAY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. MVFR CIGS JUST NW OF THE TAF SITES WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE DAYTIME MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. CIGS WILL BECOME VFR AROUND MID DAY ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO WORK BACK INTO MOST OF THE AREA TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY HOWEVER WENT WITH VFR CIGS AT KCVG AND KLUK SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HELD OFF BRINGING ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS INTO KCVG UNTIL OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. ADDED A VCSH MENTION IN TOWARDS THE END OF THE KCMH AND KLCK TAFS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY FROM SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MONDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...NOVAK

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.