Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 150552
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1252 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017
System will exit the area this evening and high pressure will
briefly build into the region. An unsettled pattern returns for
the end of the weekend through Tuesday with multiple disturbances
bringing precipitation chances to the area.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
The areas of drizzle seem to be coming to an end but we are still picking
up a few weak returns on our area radars. Will therefore linger
some patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle for the next few hours. Due
to the limited coverage, do not expect this to pose much of an ice
accretion threat though so have allowed the freezing rain advisory
to expire. Will plan on covering any issues with an SPS. The low
levels are forecast to dry out from the north through late evening
and into the overnight hours so expect any lingering drizzle to
taper off over the next few hours. Have hung on to a fair amount
of clouds across the north for later tonight but some of the
models are suggesting at least some partial clearing may work in
there. If this were to happen, suppose we could have some fog
redevelopment later tonight. The cloud cover will also have an
effect on overnight temperatures. Will range lows from the mid 20s
north to the mid 30s in the south.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Dry conditions will start out the short term. Isentropic lift
increases across southern portions of the region Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night. Although precipitation is expected to be all
rain south of the Ohio River north of the river there is the
potential for a mix of precipitation. By mid morning on Monday
expect temperatures to warm enough where all precipitation is
rain. Warm air continues to move in Monday night and therefore
expect temperatures to continue to rise through the overnight
hours. Better precipitation chances move in at the end of the
short term period.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers will occur at the beginning of the period in advance of a
cold front that will move through. Some thunder cannot be ruled out.
High pressure will then build in mid week and move off to the east.
Southerly flow will ensue with rising upper heights. This will lead
to well above normal temperatures. Some showers could develop as
weak disturbances lift up the back side of the upper ridge, with
latest guidance suggesting Friday being the better day to see
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Low level moisture persists on the fringe of high pressure
centered over Wisconsin. Ceilings as low as 300 ft and BR will
linger for several hours before drier air working in from the
northwest allows conditions to improve to VFR by mid morning.
Winds will shift from north to northeast as the high migrates east
across the Great Lakes. Increasing moisture and short wave energy on
the return flow around the high may bring showers back to CVG LUK
and ILN late in the forecast period.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities through Wednesday.
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