Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 270524 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 124 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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CLOUDS TEMPORARILY DECREASED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER THEY ARE STARTING TO REDEVELOP. BASED ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORECASTS IN THE NEAR TERM MODELS...THIS REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD CONTINUE WITH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA BEING MAINLY CLOUDY BEFORE DAYBREAK. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND LEAD TO A WARM UP AS WE START TO GET INTO SOME RETURN FLOW. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S...WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS MODELS TRY TO PIN DOWN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF ERIKA AND A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS...THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND A LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE AS A RESULT. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DRAW A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO THE 60S. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WARM SECTOR MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT A BETTER CHANCE WILL COME FROM SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE BEST FORCING ACROSS THE NORTH...HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN CWA DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS IN FLOW PATTERNS ALOFT BY LATE SUNDAY...AND CONFIDENCE DECREASES APPRECIABLY FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE 26.12Z ECMWF WEAKENS THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE 26.12Z BREAKS DOWN A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. HAVE THEREFORE TAKEN A BLEND OF THESE MODELS...GOING WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN DEVELOP A BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST BY TUESDAY WITH WARMING /ABOVE NORMAL/ TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. APPEARS THAT DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY WORK WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 18Z ALLOWING CLOUDS TO SCATTER AND THEN CLEAR IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK BEFORE THE PERIOD ENDS. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...KURZ AVIATION...

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