Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 200535 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1235 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure and dry conditions will build into the region through Monday. Dry weather will then continue through much of the week with temperatures remaining below normal. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Northwest mid level flow with surface ridge over the MS VLY building east across the region overnight. Latest IR satl imagery shows clearing over all but the northeast counties. As low level flow continues to transition from cyclonic to anti-cyclonic this trend will continue with clearing taking place. Based on temperature trends, have made minor adjustment a little colder with temperatures overnight. Overnight lows will be mostly in the mid 20s, with upper 20s in some urban locations. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... The surface high will shift east to off of the southeast coast Monday into Monday night. This will lead to increasing southwesterly low level flow across our area. With a dry airmass in place, expect mostly clear skies Monday and Monday night. This will also allow for temperatures to modify somewhat with highs on Monday in the mid to upper 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Models suggest a rather tranquil period featuring surface high pressure for the most part. Stronger weather systems may stay far to the north, with a notable lack of moisture advection to the Ohio Valley on a west to northwest flow aloft. After high pressure brings dry weather early Tuesday, a disturbance crossing the Great Lakes may bring a few showers to northwestern locations Tuesday afternoon. Brisk winds and colder temperatures will arrive Wednesday with high pressure centered over the Central CONUS. As this expansive area of high pressure travels across the Ohio Valley to the East Coast, dry weather is expected to continue Thursday and Friday. Another disturbance traversing the Great Lakes may bring a few showers of rain and snow Friday night and Saturday. Look for a return of high pressure and dry air for Sunday. Temperatures will vary with respect to the disturbances, featuring the typical warm advection ahead of the disturbances followed by cold advection behind. Expect highs around 50 on Tuesday under warm advection and south winds, falling to the 30s Wednesday due to cold advection on a northwest flow. Readings are forecast to climb back into the 40s Thursday through Saturday, before dropping back into the 30s Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A mid level trough will move away from the region today, bringing back a quasi-zonal flow pattern aloft. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure will nose into the region this morning, then its ridge axis will shift southeast through the day. Some high clouds will move into the area as a weak disturbance rotates east. Winds will become south, with local gusts up to 20 knots near the northern terminals between 16Z and 22Z. For tonight, weak disturbance moves east, but more high level clouds will approach from the northwest as a mid level disturbance drops southeast into the upper Mississippi River Valley/western Great Lakes. Low pressure and a cold front with this feature will begin tightening the surface pressure gradient overnight. Above the surface, a fairly decent low level jet will move southeast into the region. This will bring the threat for non-convective LLWS conditions, developing between 03Z and 06Z. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL/AR SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...Hickman is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.