Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 150552 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1252 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... System will exit the area this evening and high pressure will briefly build into the region. An unsettled pattern returns for the end of the weekend through Tuesday with multiple disturbances bringing precipitation chances to the area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... The areas of drizzle seem to be coming to an end but we are still picking up a few weak returns on our area radars. Will therefore linger some patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle for the next few hours. Due to the limited coverage, do not expect this to pose much of an ice accretion threat though so have allowed the freezing rain advisory to expire. Will plan on covering any issues with an SPS. The low levels are forecast to dry out from the north through late evening and into the overnight hours so expect any lingering drizzle to taper off over the next few hours. Have hung on to a fair amount of clouds across the north for later tonight but some of the models are suggesting at least some partial clearing may work in there. If this were to happen, suppose we could have some fog redevelopment later tonight. The cloud cover will also have an effect on overnight temperatures. Will range lows from the mid 20s north to the mid 30s in the south. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Dry conditions will start out the short term. Isentropic lift increases across southern portions of the region Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Although precipitation is expected to be all rain south of the Ohio River north of the river there is the potential for a mix of precipitation. By mid morning on Monday expect temperatures to warm enough where all precipitation is rain. Warm air continues to move in Monday night and therefore expect temperatures to continue to rise through the overnight hours. Better precipitation chances move in at the end of the short term period. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Showers will occur at the beginning of the period in advance of a cold front that will move through. Some thunder cannot be ruled out. High pressure will then build in mid week and move off to the east. Southerly flow will ensue with rising upper heights. This will lead to well above normal temperatures. Some showers could develop as weak disturbances lift up the back side of the upper ridge, with latest guidance suggesting Friday being the better day to see precipitation. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Low level moisture persists on the fringe of high pressure centered over Wisconsin. Ceilings as low as 300 ft and BR will linger for several hours before drier air working in from the northwest allows conditions to improve to VFR by mid morning. Winds will shift from north to northeast as the high migrates east across the Great Lakes. Increasing moisture and short wave energy on the return flow around the high may bring showers back to CVG LUK and ILN late in the forecast period. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities through Wednesday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM... AVIATION...Coniglio

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