Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 260934 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 434 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEAK AS ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER RADAR RETURNS HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN PUSHING EAST INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THE LOW LEVELS STILL FAIRLY DRY...WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH IN THE WAY OF GROUND TRUTH ACROSS OUR AREA SO FAR. HOWEVER AS WE BEGIN TO MOISTEN UP...WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE MORNING. THE 06Z NAM IS SHOWING A WEAK/NARROW 850-700 MB DEFORMATION AXIS SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIAMI VALLEY THROUGH DAYBREAK SO WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE RETURNS FILL IN A LITTLE BETTER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS UP THERE. EXPECT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS OUR NORTH TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY A HALF AN INCH OR LESS. MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS PRIMARILY REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH WITH JUST SOME VERY WEAK RADAR RETURNS BRUSHING ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FA. DOUBT THAT MUCH IF ANY OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND...BUT WILL HANG ON TO A TOKEN 20 POP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING JUST IN CASE. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE INDICATING SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE PIVOTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CORRESPONDS WITH DEVELOPING CAA AS A WEAK 850 MB TROUGH AXIS DROPS DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SO WILL CARRY A 20 POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS NORTH TO THE MID 20S SOUTH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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EXPECT ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST TO QUICKLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. LOW LEVEL CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME POSSIBLE CLEARING WORKING IN FROM THE WEST LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THIS CLEARING DEVELOPS AS WINDS WILL LIKELY BE DROPPING OFF TOO. IN AREAS THAT DO CLEAR OUT...SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST. WIND CHILLS MAY DIP INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND THE FACT THAT WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING LATER TONIGHT...WILL HOLD OFF ON A WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND JUST MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT. THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY MORNING. WITH CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND A LINGERING SNOW PACK...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO READINGS LIKELY. RECORD TEMPERATURES MAY BE IN JEOPARDY AT CVG/DAY/CMH. RECORDS FOR 2/28 ARE 1 AT CVG (1934)...-3 AT DAY (1934)...AND 2 AT CMH (1934).
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CARRYING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG AN UNDULATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS DUE TO ARRIVE BY SUNDAY AS MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE IT SAGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER FOR THIS SYSTEM...INDICATING SNOW...CHANGING TO RAIN SOUTH OF I-70 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ON MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED ON TUESDAY BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSPORTING A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURE PROJECTIONS ALLOW SNOW AT THE START...CHANGING TO RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. FLOODING CONCERNS COULD INCREASE TUESDAY IF RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT COMBINE TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF. LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME MODERATION TOWARD NORMAL WILL OCCUR. READINGS MAY WARM INTO THE 30S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE INDICATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WEAKENING DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MAINLY NORTHERN TAF SITES TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO EXPECTING ONLY MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS. SOUTHERN TAF SITES SHOULD SEE ONLY FLURRIES AT WORST WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTION BUT MVFR CIGS. SHOULD SEE SYSTEM MOVE AWAY THIS EVENING. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TONIGHT. WINDS MAINLY NORTHEAST TO NORTH 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH TAF FCST PERIOD. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...CONIGLIO AVIATION...PADGETT

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