Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 131139 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 639 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN TODAY AND CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... STREAMER OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN IS STILL SAGGING SOUTH WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. THIS WILL WEAKEN AS FLOW BACKS. HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT FETCH WILL STABILIZE WITH ANOTHER BAND OF MOISTURE BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. SO MORE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE WILL SEE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WITH CLEARING PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS. WIND CHILL THIS MORNING WILL BE MARGINAL BUT WILL LET ADVISORY CONTINUE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... SOME FLURRIES MAY STILL BE LINGERING IN PARTS OF CENTRAL OHIO AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. BUT THEY WILL COME TO AN END AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO PROVIDE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS STARTING TO ADVANCE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE LOWS. SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS A WARM FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL APPROACH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LIFT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT OF THESE TWO SOURCES OF LIFT WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BREAK OUT. THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES. FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME. NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK FROM THE MID SOUTH INTO THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TRENDS OF THIS BEING PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED. BUT DIFFERENCES REMAIN CONCERNING HOW FAR NORTH OF THE LOW THE SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS...WHETHER THERE WILL BE A BREAK AFTER THE WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION...AND HOW MUCH WARMING THERE WILL BE WHICH MAY AFFECT PRECIPITATION TYPE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY HAVE USED A BLEND THAT SHOULD BE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITHIN THE ENVELOPE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. SO ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALTHOUGH THAT COULD BE MINIMAL IF PRECIPITATION MIXES WITH OR CHANGES TO RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY BUT THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY DROP EARLY SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE READINGS RISE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. STAYED CLOSER TO COOLER GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY HIGHS GIVEN NEW SNOW COVER FROM SUNDAY NIGHT AND EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN WITH CHANCES LOOKING A BIT HIGHER IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES. UPPER FLOW THEN BECOMES PROGRESSIVE WITH RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. BUT THEN ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL DURING MID WEEK AND THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AND LIGHT ACROSS THE TAF SITES. CIGS ARE PRIMARILY VFR THIS MORNING HOWEVER ISOLATED MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AROUND KCVG. THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER KEPT KCMH AND KLCK WITH VFR CIGS. CLOUD COVER AND WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE LONGER KCVG TAF TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ON SUNDAY. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026- 034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-072. KY...NONE. IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ050- 058-059. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...NOVAK

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