Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 152022 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 422 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ARE ENTERING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. AN AMPLE AMOUNT OF PVA AND MOISTURE IS EVIDENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED BUT HAVE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THAN HAD BEEN ANTICIPATED. HAVE UPPED POPS AS HIGH AS CATEGORICAL THIS EVENING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE SHOWERS BY LATE EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS ABSENT OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY BUT THAT DOES CONTAIN ABOUT 200 J/KG ELEVATED CAPE. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS FORCING MOVES EAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH. LOWS WILL VARY WITH RESPECT TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONT BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH NORTHERN LOCATIONS BEHIND THE FRONT FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S...WHILE LOWS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER TUESDAY MORNING SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN ON A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED DRY AIRMASS AND DOWNWARD MOTION WILL RESULT IN PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR AND RATHER COOL CONDITIONS. HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S WILL BE BUMPED UP A COUPLE DEGREES TOWARD 70 ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 50S SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND MEAN TROF OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AT MID WEEK. THIS PLACES THE OHIO VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WASH OUT. BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN TO BUILD SE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY AND COOL WEATHER TO CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY WITH THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING INTO NEW ENGLAND. A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF RE-TREATING SFC HIGH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT MODIFICATION OF TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH. MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL US. WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY ON SATURDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM UP. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO AROUND 80 SOUTH. PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF TO TRANSLATE EAST WITH ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHWEST AND ACRS THE ENTIRE FA SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...AN AREA OF RAIN (WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION) HAS DEVELOPED OVER INDIANA. THIS PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN TIMED INTO THE TAF SITES WITH THE LATEST FORECAST...WITH A SLIGHTLY LARGER IMPACT EXPECTED FOR THE DAYTON AND COLUMBUS TAF SITES. ALTHOUGH CEILINGS ARE MAINLY VFR IN THIS AREA OF RAIN...VISIBILITIES MAY DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE (OR EVEN IFR IN A THUNDERSTORM OR HEAVY SHOWER). AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE...LEADING TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CEILINGS. HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL END BY 00Z-03Z...BUT LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT ON TUESDAY MORNING...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HATZOS

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