Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 020756 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 356 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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DESPITE MODEL UNCERTAINTY OF EXTENT AND SPREAD OF HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL INTO AREA AMONG THE CAMS/RAP/NAM...HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A BLEND AND TIMING OUT CONVECTION OVER INDIANA INTO THE FCST AREA. FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAINLY FOR AREAS WHICH HAD RECEIVED FROM 2 TO NEARLY 5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE EXTENDED WEEKEND...AND FOR THE CINCINNATI AREA FOR MORNING COMMUTE. WHILE LL SUPPORT AND DEEP MOISTURE DOES TEND TO DIMINISH AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES EAST...FLASH FLOOD WATCH DOES EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS FRANKLIN COUNTY/COLUMBUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER...COMBINED WITH PWS OF OVER 2" WILL BE IN THE MID/LOWER GREAT/LITTLE MIAMI BASIN AREAS THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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BY 20-22 UTC...FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTER FCST AREA WITH LINGERING SHRA/TSTMS BUT OTHERWISE DRIER CONDITIONS FILTERING INTO THE AREA AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BRIEFLY INTO THE AREA WILL BRIEFLY WILL BRING MODERATING OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HAVE GENERALLY GONE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AS STRONG NW FLOW NOT REALLY REALIZED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE FAIRLY SHALLOW NATURE OF THE HIGH. THE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING TOWARD AREA FROM THE MID MS VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. VERY LITTLE FORCING WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND LL MOISTURE NOT AS ESTABLISHED SO KEPT FCST DRY THROUGH WED/WED NIGHT...INTRODUCING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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BY FRIDAY...A CDFNT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE SHOWING A RANGE ON THE FROPA TIMING. THE GFS IS THE QUICKEST...WHILE THE ECMWF IS ON THE SLOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE. BOTH MODELS SHOW FROPA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH CONTINUED PCPN CHANCES ON SATURDAY. PUT THE BEST POPS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH 50 POP ACROSS THE REGION. REDEVELOPED THE PCPN SATURDAY MORNING WITH 50 POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT LOWER POPS TO THE NW. THE GFS DRIES THINGS OUT QUICKER SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF WHICH LEAVES LINGERING PCPN CHANCES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH. HELD ON TO 20 POPS FOR THE EVENING HOURS IN THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. COOLER CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S IN NRN KY. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SOME SPOTTY MVFR STRATUS IS STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS COULD FILL IN A BIT MORE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER...THINK THE QUICKLY THICKENING CIRRUS SHIELD SHOULD PREVENT IT FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS EASTERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN INDIANA SHOULD APPROACH THE WESTERN TAF SITES TOWARD 09Z AND THE EASTERN TAF SITES AROUND 11Z. PCPN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A GOOD LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST INTO OUR AREA THROUGH 12Z BEFORE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND IN THE THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY/COVERAGE THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING AS IT PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. AS THIS INITIAL WAVE PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA...WE COULD SEE A LULL IN THE PCPN FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AS WE DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT TO SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ053>055- 060>064-070>072-077. KY...NONE. IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ050-058-059- 066-073-074.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JDR NEAR TERM...JDR SHORT TERM...JDR LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...JGL

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