Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 031746 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 146 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST TODAY. A BROADER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND LINGER OVER OHIO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A VERY WEAK SURFACE PATTERN UNDERNEATH THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR AFTERNOON STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN. SOME BETTER COVERAGE MAY DEVELOP THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY UP ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR AREA. AS A RESULT...WILL RANGE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH TO CHANCE NORTH FOR LATER TODAY. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... THE CIRCULATION OVER EASTERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY EKE SOUTHWARD AND SETTLE OVER OHIO ON FRIDAY AND MEANDER TO NORTHERN KENTUCKY ON SATURDAY. WITH A WEAK SURFACE FLOW AND CONTINUED HUMID AIRMASS...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT IF ONLY IN A SCATTERED OR ISOLATED NATURE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WITH THE UPPER FEATURE WILL LIMIT HIGHS FROM REACHING PAST 90 THROUGH THIS TIME AS WELL. A BIT OF DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO WORK IN ON SUNDAY...AND THE THREAT FOR STORMS ON THIS DAY SEEMS A BIT MORE DIMINISHED THAN THE OTHERS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED IN THE SLIGHT TO CHANCE CATEGORIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE DIURNALLY ENHANCED SO WOULD EXPECT A GENERAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE/CU AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...WILL ALLOW FOR A VCTS AT AT LEAST THE NORTHERN TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH ACTIVITY WE END UP SEEING WITH THE OVERNIGHT SHORT WAVE. IF WE END UP WITH ENOUGH CLOUD COVER...BR/FG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY MITIGATED. FOR NOW THOUGH...WILL TREND TOWARD PERSISTENCE AND ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR TO IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT THE MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE KLUK/KLCK/KILN TAF SITES. AS WE DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...EXPECT THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...FRANKS/NOVAK AVIATION...JGL/SITES

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