Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 201443 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1043 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL LINGER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER BUT COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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ANOTHER GRID UPDATE HAS BEEN COMPLETED TO INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW AREAS OF CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN INDIANA...UNDER A SMALL AREA OF RELATIVE COLD AT 700MB...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION. AS THIS COLD AIR ADVECTS OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WEAK/NARROW INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP...AS INDICATED BY NAM/RAP SOUNDINGS. IF THIS OCCURS...WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...VERY SMALL HAIL MAY ALSO DEVELOP FROM THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION > TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ARE AFFECTING THE ILN CWA THIS MORNING. A FAIRLY SOLID BAND OF RAIN HAS BEEN MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY. NORTH OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR...SHOWERY PRECIPITATION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP. BASED ON THE POSITION OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...AND WILL LIKELY EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS OHIO AND NORTHEASTERN INDIANA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...AND IS NOT FORECAST TO GET INTO THE ILN CWA UNTIL AFTER 00Z. FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE...POPS WERE ADJUSTED UP...BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND EXPECTED COVERAGE LATER TODAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE GOTTEN OFF TO A VERY COOL START OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND MAX TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THESE LOCATIONS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...PUSHING THE BETTER PCPN COVERAGE EWD. ADDITIONAL ENERGY IN THE H5 FLOW DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND CUTOFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUESDAY. THIS WILL LINGER PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA. MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING A FETCH OF PCPN OFF WARM LAKE MI...SO HAVE ALSO ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED/ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FAR WESTERN FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE FLOW BECOMES MORE DUE NORTHERLY AND THE CHANCES DIMINISH AREA WIDE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPPER LOW TO TRANSLATE INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SFC BUILDING INTO THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP ILN/S FA DRY WITH EMBEDDED S/W TO PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME MODERATION THROUGH THE WEEK. LOWS IN THE MID/UPR 30S ON WED AND THURS NIGHTS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FROST FORMATION. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION IN THE GRIDS AND HWO PRODUCT. EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH SOME MODERATION ON FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 60 NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH. NORTHERN PORTION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO FLATTEN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OHIO VALLEY NEXT WEEKEND AND ACTIVE WEATHER TO STAY WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL NEXT SATURDAY/SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK TO MISS TAF SITES THIS MORNING BUT WILL ALLOW AS DECK TO CONTINUALLY LOWER AS THE DAY WEARS ON. 8-10KFT CIGS WILL LOWER TO 2500-4KFT THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH. THIS TROF PASSAGE MAY SPARK ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BUT SHOULD AGAIN BE PRIMARILY VFR VSBY WITH SOME MVFR CIGS. IN THE CAA BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT...A MOIST LOWER LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL COMBINE WITH THE TURBULENT MIXING TO PRODUCE AN IFR CIG FOR ALL BUT KCVG/KLUK WHERE THERMAL PROFILES DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE AS MUCH TEMPERATURE CHANGE IN THE LOWER LAYERS ABOVE THE SURFACE. REMAINING TAF SITES WILL SEE A DECENT H9 TEMP DROP AS WINDS SHIFT NNW. SOME PREVAILING BR COULD EVEN DROP VSBYS ACROSS MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD. A BRIEF PERIOD OF NO CIGS MAY BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THESE LATE DAY SHOWERS BEFORE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER LEVEL STRATOCU. .OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDR/SITES NEAR TERM...HATZOS SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...FRANKS

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