Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 241052 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 652 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure building into the center of the country will bring mainly dry conditions this weekend and below normal temperatures into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The cold front has pushed through the region and has taken the pcpn with it. High pressure will build down across the center of the nation today. However zonal flow at H5 will allow a vort max to swing thru the srn Great Lakes. This will kick off cloud developed today, along with a few showers. The majority of the models keep these showers north of the fa, so kept the region dry, but wouldn`t be surprised if a sprinkle or two develops, especially in the extreme north. High temperatures will range from the mid 70s in the northwest counties to the lower 80s in the se. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Clouds are forecast to scattered out tonight as the high build in from the lower Ohio Valley. Temperatures will cool back into the mid 50s. A stronger H5 s/w swings across the Great Lakes on Sunday. This s/w is a little farther north the one that affects the region today. Once again kept pcpn chances across nrn Ohio, just to the north of the region. Highs will range from the lower 70s across the north to the upper 70s near the Ohio River. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Mean trof becomes more amplified over the area, so a contd threat of showers or thunderstorms will be continued Monday. Cool temperatures to continue with Mondays highs expected to be in the lower 70s. Warm front to develop over the Great Lakes with southerly flow increasing. Temperatures will continue to moderate with highs Thursday in the lower and middle 80s. The ECMWF and Canadian solns bringing a progressive system through the Great Lakes Thursday, while the GFS holds off pcpn. With an increase in moisture have allowed for a slight chance of a thunderstorm but confidence is not high in this chance. Models solns sharpen up mid level trof over the eastern Great Lakes which may lead to a few showers or thunderstorms over the northeastern counties. Rather cool readings to continue Tuesday with highs generally in the mid 70s. Surface high pressure slide east with southerly low level developing on its back side at midweek. Expect dry conditions with a warming trend. Temperatures will be closer to normal with highs on Wednesday in the lower 80s. Westerly flow aloft with surface wave tracking through the northern Great Lakes. This will allow an associated surface front to drop south into the southern Great Lakes and stall out. Have limited pops to chance category with the highest pops northwest Thursday. On the warm side of this system, expect temperatures to reach highs in the lower and middle 80s Thursday. Another progressive wave and associated frontal boundary expected to approach from the west increasing thunderstorm chances Friday into Friday night. Model solution strength and timing differences exist regarding this system. Due to this spread, uncertainty increases. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Scattered cirrus this morning in Ohio Valley is coming downstream from convective complexes in TX. Drier air at almost all levels is coming in with the passage of a cold front earlier this morning. Cumulus development today may end up as a broken VFR deck, primarily along the I-70 corridor this afternoon. With continued cold advection until the thermal trough crosses overnight, cu may be present for a while. Any lingering fog will clear relatively quickly as west- northwest winds increase to around 8kt after daybreak and then 12kt with gusts to 20kt during the afternoon. OUTLOOK...Intermittent MVFR ceilings possible through Tuesday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sites NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Franks

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