Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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060 FXUS61 KILN 301929 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 329 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will be centered over the region through Tuesday, with dry conditions and warm temperatures. As the high moves to the east on Wednesday, chances for precipitation will increase, with a cold front moving into the region on Thursday morning.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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A cold front is located downstream of the ILN forecast area, with a broad area of surface high pressure centered over the lower Ohio Valley. The ILN CWA is in a regime of northwesterly flow on the northeastern periphery of this high, but any cold advection has been countered by the drier air mass and a day of near-full sun, resulting in temperatures in the lower to mid 80s across the region. As the high shifts to the northeast into southern Michigan tonight, winds will become light and variable, and skies are expected to remain mostly clear. These conditions are rather favorable for radiational cooling. SREF plumes suggest a mean for min temps tonight closer to the mid 60s, but the favorable conditions and some other raw model output would suggest slightly lower values. Thus, forecasted min temps tonight will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As surface high pressure shifts into Ontario, weak wind flow over the Ohio Valley will turn to the east, with the pressure gradient gradually increasing by late Tuesday night. Southwest flow aloft will become a little more pronounced, but the relatively dry air mass in the low levels will remain in place, leaving just some upstream cirrus and scattered cumulus during the afternoon. The air mass will change very little from Monday to Tuesday, but another day of sun will allow for max temps to rise by a few degrees (mid to upper 80s). The quiet conditions will continue into Tuesday night, with min temps around 60 degrees, and mostly clear conditions.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A mid level trough is still advertised to move from the northern and central Plains to the Great Lakes Region Wednesday into Thursday. Most of the region will squeeze out one more dry day on Wednesday as high pressure moves off to the east. There could be enough moisture and diurnal instability late in the day on Wednesday for a low chance of showers/storms far west. As the mid level trough moves through the Great Lakes on Thursday, an associated cold front at the surface will push into the region as well. More substantial timing differences are starting to arise in terms of high fast the front will move southeast through our region Thursday into Friday as the boundary becomes more parallel with the mid level flow. Have opted for continuity which allows for the slow push of the front Thursday into Thursday night and a gradual movement south of the Ohio River on Friday. Have kept an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday, with decreasing chances Thursday night into Friday. For the upcoming weekend and into early next week, the upper level pattern will transition to a broad long wave trough over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Surface high pressure on Saturday will give way to a weak disturbance Saturday night into Sunday. Have kept a low chance of showers and storms with this system. In a northwest flow pattern aloft, we may be between systems on Monday. It should be noted that models tend to not handle the timing of northwest moving systems. In either case, have kept Monday dry for now. The warmest temperatures this week should be on Wednesday, with mid to upper 80s forecast. Cooler readings with highs mostly in the 70s are expected Friday into early next week.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions will be found over the region with the possible exception of some river valley fog at KLUK towards daybreak. NW flow turning NE tomorrow with fair wx cu will be found in daylight hours with a clear sky and calm wind overnight. OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hatzos NEAR TERM...Hatzos SHORT TERM...Hatzos LONG TERM...Hickman AVIATION...Franks

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