Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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767 FXUS61 KILN 052003 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 403 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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UPPER LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW CLEARING THAT HAS WORKED INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WHERE THERE HAS BEEN HEATING...ENHANCED CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS IN THE AREA ALONG THE OHIO-INDIANA BORDER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION SHOWERS IN EASTERN OHIO MAY SPREAD INTO COUNTIES TO THE EAST OF COLUMBUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM GUIDANCE LOWS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE RETARDED SOMEWHAT BY THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LARGE UPPER LOW WHICH BY THAT TIME WILL BE IN THE MID ATLANTIC. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS LOW COULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PASS OFF TO THE SOUTH BY SATURDAY EVENING. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE UNSTABLE WITH CAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG. SHEAR MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG BUT WITH GOOD FORCING COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR SATURDAY WHEN THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY ESPECIALLY WITH WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS TO WARM UP.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE NORTHWARDS AS WELL. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL WORK THROUGH THE REGION FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THIS TIME. WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND DURING THIS TIME. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN FEATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF EACH SYSTEM. MODELS START TO DIVERGE FOR THURSDAY WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE GFS IS DRIER. AT THIS POINT TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. WENT CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CIGS ARE PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORK THEIR WAY SOUTH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WE SHOULD START TO DRY OUT. HOWEVER...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE INDICATING AN AXIS OF 850 MB MOISTURE HANGING BACK ACROSS PARTS OF INDIANA AND OHIO THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LINGERING...PRIMARILY VFR...SC THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL COVER THIS WITH A SCT CLOUD GROUP BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CIGS GO BKN FROM TIME TO TIME TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...JGL

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