Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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114 FXUS61 KILN 221148 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 648 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will swing up the Ohio Valley today bringing showers and a chance of thunder this afternoon into the evening. Colder air will filter back into the region tonight and Tuesday. A weak upper level disturbance will offer a slight chance of a snow shower Wednesday. High pressure will then bring dry conditions through the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A deep closed H5 low will push out of the Rockies and into the plains today. Ahead of the upper low, a deepening surface low will eject northeast into the upper MS valley. Some scattered showers are still drifting north in the warm sector early this morning. Expect the showers to work north of the region by mid morning. Focus then shifts to line of convection that will swing up the Ohio Valley. Models remain consistent that the line will reach the Indiana-Ohio border around 18Z, then it will move east across the fa during the rest of the afternoon. Models are showing some sfc instability with the line, so added a slight chance of thunder to the srn portion of the fa. Temperatures will be well above normal today, as they reach the mid 50s in the west, but the mid to upper 60s in the southeast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The cold front will sweep east across the region this evening. There are differences with how much post frontal pcpn there will be. Kept PoPs likely for the evening, before dry slot works into the area. The precipitation will diminish and then redevelop late as wrap around associated with the H5 low develops. It looks like critical thicknesses will remain warm enough for any precipitation tonight to be liquid. Temperatures will fall tonight, reaching the upper 30s in the west to the lower 40s in the east by morning. On Tuesday the closed upper low will eject out through the lower Great Lakes. A strong wly flow behind the cdfnt will bring strong cold air advection. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 with gusts into the mid to upper 30 mph range. Temperatures will be near steady in the west with some warming possible in the southeast. Went with highs in the upper 30s in the northwest, up to the mid 40s in the southeast. A mix of rain and snow showers will develop across the area associated with the lift from the passing upper low. The storm system will continue to pull away Tuesday night. Some lingering light pcpn is possible in the evening. Temperatures will drop back into the mid to upper 20s. On Wednesday, a quick moving H5 s/w will swing through the region in a fast zonal flow. Lift from this s/w could produce some light snow showers, with the best chances across the north. Will continue to carry 20 PoPs in the north and added a mention of some flurries farther south. It looks like highs will only make the 35 to 40 degrees range for Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Broad surface high pressure will move east into the area for the second half of the week, as the upper pattern gradually switches from troughing to ridging over the eastern half of the CONUS. This will bring dry conditions and gradually warming temperatures through Friday. Behind the departing surface high, and with troughing developing over the plains, moist flow from the Gulf is expected to move into the Ohio Valley again over the weekend. Overall model agreement in this pattern remains strong across several GFS/ECMWF runs, though GFS ensemble plots suggest the depth/timing of the upstream trough is perhaps a source of inconsistency in exact timing and placement details for the incoming rainfall. So, without getting into specifics that far out, conditions appear warmer than normal with rain expected -- with a cold front eventually cooling things off at the tail end of the long term forecast period going into Monday. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions are found over the region this morning until a line of showers pushes through in the early afternoon in western TAF sites, later afternoon at CMH/LCK. MVFR cigs and vsbys are expected as the line of showers pushes through. After the back edge of the showers moves by in the evening, winds will shift southwesterly with the cold air behind the front. A slight chance of some embedded thunderstorms is possible at CVG/LUK between 0z and 3z, but this has been left out attm given expected improving conditions and lower chances of rain. Cigs in the cold air behind the front will remain in the MVFR category for the rest of the forecast, and scattered showers with generally VFR vsbys will remain possible overnight but are not expected to be the general wx and have not been put in the forecast. Wind shear to 45 and 50kt through 2kft is expected this morning, with rapid improvement once the shower activity commences after about 19-20z. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings likely through Wednesday. MVFR vsbys are possible Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR/Sites NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...Franks is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.