Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KILN 070554
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1254 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2016
A low pressure system will exit the area tonight. High pressure
will work into the area for Wednesday. A cold front and upper
level disturbance will move through Wednesday night into Thursday
bringing much cooler air to the region.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Initial mid level shortwave well to our east with broad
west/southwest flow south of low moving through the northern Great
Latest satl imgry shows back edge of low clouds near the
Indiana/Ohio state line. Expect these clouds to push east with
lingering drizzle coming to an end as surface high pressure noses
in from the west. There will be a brief period of mostly clear sky
conditions, followed by an increase in high level cloudiness. Low
temperatures to range from the mid/upper 20s nw to the lower 30s se.
More widespread precipitation is limited to extreme eastern
portions of the forecast area. Some drizzle will remain across the
area through the early evening hours before ending. Any drizzle is
expected to end before temperatures drop below freezing. Model
sounding profiles do not support a longer period of drizzle,
therefore expect it to end pretty early. Have some patchy fog in
early as some vsbys are reduced, however winds are expected to
pick up this evening. With the drizzle coming to an end and the
winds picking up, expect vsbys to improve.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure and dry conditions are expected for Wednesday.
Isolated snow showers will be possible Wednesday night. The
bigger story with this system will be the temperature change as
much cooler air is brought into the region. Temperatures are
expected to drop down into the 20s Wednesday night. Not expecting
to see much in the way of temperature recovery on Thursday
especially across northwestern portions of the region. High
temperatures on Thursday are expected to be in the middle 20s to
middle 30s. Some lake effect snow showers and lake effect flurries
will continue through the end of the short term. In addition
expect a decent amount of cloud cover through this time with upper
trough and winds off of the lake.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
With the region under a chilly westerly flow on on Friday, bulk
of snow showers should be confined to the Great Lakes, with only a
slight chance for snow showers in far northern counties. Dry
weather is expected areawide on Saturday when high pressure is
forecast to build to the south.
A cold front and wave of low pressure will approach from the west
Sunday before crossing the area Sunday night. Rain will be the
primary type of precip with the front, with snow mixing in at the
start and end of the event. Light precip may linger Monday in the
cyclonic flow off the Great Lakes. A few snow showers will be
possible Tuesday in northern locations, ahead of an Arctic cold
Look for below normal temperatures through the period. Highs Friday
are forecast to be in the upper 20s, then up to around 30 Saturday.
Modestly warmer readings near 40 are expected for Sunday through
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Post frontal stratocumulus will continue to move east through the
early morning hours as drier air filters into the region.
By morning, mid/high level clouds will be streaming across the
region in a broad southwest/west flow aloft.
Large upper level low centered just north of the upper Mississippi
River Valley will slow rotate east and elongate today into
tonight. Some embedded energy in the southwest to west flow around
the low will bring another round of mid clouds to the region
overnight. Precipitation looks unlikely with this energy/mid
clouds as low levels will be quite dry.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible Thursday and Friday.