Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 171842 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 242 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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An upper level low pressure system will bring scattered snow showers and an unseasonable cold airmass to the Ohio Valley on Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Widespread diurnal cu across the northern half of our area, and scattered light showers across our far north, will persist through late afternoon before dissipating with loss of diurnal heating. Skies will then become mostly clear as we head through the evening hours. Gusty west to northwest winds this afternoon will also trend down as we lose the daytime mixing going into this evening, but still likely remain in the 5 to 10 mph range through the night. Overnight lows will drop into the mid to upper 20s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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An embedded mid level short wave will pivot down across the Ohio Valley through the day on Monday. This will combine with a fetch off of Lake Michigan, diurnal heating, and increasing low level lapse rates, to result in fairly widespread snow shower development from late morning on into the afternoon. This is reflected in the snow squall parameter which lights up pretty nicely across at least the northeast two thirds of our area. For now will go with high chance pops/scattered wording across most of the area but pops may need to be nudged up further with later forecasts. Given the cold air aloft and the fact that these will be convective showers, will keep ptype as all snow. While ground temperatures will still be warm, it will be tough to rule out some brief light accumulations on grassy/elevated surfaces in any of the more significant snow showers. Temperatures will be well below normal with daytime highs only in the mid 30s to around 40 degrees. The snow shower activity will slowly taper off heading into Monday evening with lows Monday night in the mid 20s.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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By Tuesday, the shortwave trough axis will have shifted southeast of the region, however, much of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions remain within the longwave trough persisting over eastern North America. The longwave trough lingers through Thursday before mid and upper level flow temporarily becomes zonal. Conditions are expected to remain dry through much of the week, but temperatures continue to trend cooler toward the later half of the week as another surge of cooler air drops in from the north. While Tuesday and Wednesday`s high temperatures are near normal, Thursday afternoon will be a few degrees below normal. The next chance for precipitation arrives Thursday night into Friday morning as a weak shortwave moving southeastward through the longwave trough will supply weak synoptic lift. This will combine with moisture sourced from a closed low passing the south of the region. Overall, this leads to fairly lackluster precipitation chances for the area through Friday. Heading into the weekend, a longwave change appears to approach as a broad ridge opens up for the central CONUS. This would suggest a gradual warming trend into the weekend and early next week, with better rainfall chances arriving next week.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A diurnal cu field has developed this afternoon, especially along and north of the I-70 corridor. It will be tough to rule out a stray shower at the northern TAF sites through late afternoon. Otherwise, diurnal cu will dissipate heading into this evening with skies becoming mostly clear. A mid level short wave will drop down across the region through the day on Monday. This will combine with a fetch off of Lake Michigan and some diurnal instability to result in fairly widespread snow shower development across at least our northern areas from late morning into the afternoon. This could lead to some localized MVFR to IFR vsbys and cigs. West to northwest winds with gusts to around 25 knots will be possible this afternoon and then again late Monday morning and into the afternoon. OUTLOOK...No significant weather. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...McGinnis AVIATION...JGL

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