Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 301749 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 149 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A PERSISTENT TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL THE START OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT CHANCES FOR MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY...FRIDAY...AND THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A DEEP UPPER LOW IS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE LOW ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE TROUGH AND PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE ENHANCED FORCING FROM THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL HEATING DRIVEN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PER LATEST HRRR...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY IN THESE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL OHIO. ALTHOUGH CAPES WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW...500-700 J/KG OF 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE...WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAINING COOL IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH...IT WILL NOT TAKE A VERY ROBUST UPDRAFT TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING OUT OF THE 70S. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT OUR REGION TO OUR EAST WHILE A DEEP UPPER LOW SPINS IN PLACE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. ANY REMAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND FORCING. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. EXPECTING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TONIGHT. ON THURSDAY... OUR AREA WILL BE CENTERED BETWEEN THE EXITING SHORTWAVE FROM TODAY...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MODELS ARE HINTING AT ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...WITH THERE ALSO BEING INDICATIONS OF WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THE TWO SHORTWAVES...AM THINKING THAT THURSDAY WILL REMAIN DRY. WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED THURSDAY...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER 500-1000 HPA HEIGHTS MOVING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OF OUR ZONES BY THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY WILL SEE A REBOUND OF TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL. THIS WILL BE DUE TO WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO BRING A SLIGHT UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE...ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THIS TROUGH IN PLACE. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR DAY CONDITIONS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN FROM EASTERN CANADA ...THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND REGION...AND THEN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ROTATING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM THE CENTRAL OHIO TAFS OF KCMH/KLCK TO KILN. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE AND LOSS OF HEATING WILL ALLOW PCPN TO SHIFT EAST AND ALSO WANE. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY...A STRONGER EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND THUS HAVE LITTLE EFFECT EXCEPT MAYBE A FEW MID CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND WITH SOME CLEARING WE SHOULD SEE SOME MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR MIST AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES. KLUK MAY SEE MORE RIVER FOG AND HAVE ALLOWED FOR VISIBILITIES TO DROP BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS. ON THURSDAY...AREA WILL BE IN A LULL IN TERMS OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ACTIVITY SO SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO FORM AFTER MIST/FOG BURNS OFF DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LATTO NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/LATTO SHORT TERM...LATTO LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...HICKMAN

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