Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KILN 231037
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
637 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016
High pressure will push slowly east across the region today and
Tuesday, providing dry conditions and a gradual warming trend. A
series of upper level disturbances will then bring a chance of
showers and thunderstorms at times through the end of the work
week. Temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal through
the end of the week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure will build slowly southeast into our area through
this afternoon. With a relatively dry airmass in place, expect
mainly sunny skies across our west today, with perhaps some sct
cu across the east. Low level thermal fields will trend slightly
warmer through this afternoon so expect highs today similar or a
tad warmer than what we saw on Sunday, with highs in the mid to
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mid/upper level ridging will shift slowly east across the region
through Tuesday, before beginning to break down a bit Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Meanwhile, the associated surface high
pressure will will gradually weaken as it shifts off to the east.
The airmass will remain fairly dry Monday night into Tuesday, so
expect mainly clear skies to persist. As the airmass continues to
modify, highs on Tuesday will push into the upper 70s to lower
80s. Some moisture will start to work over the ridge Tuesday
night so will allow for lower chance pops to move in from the
northwest late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. There is
little if any instability at this point though so will limit any
pcpn to just showers. However, as we warm into the low 80s on
Wednesday, we will destabilize through the day, leading to a
chance of thunderstorms by Wednesday afternoon.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Relatively zonal H5 flow will affect the fa on Wednesday. Surface
moisture will be on the increase along with the instability. Embedded
vort maxs in the upper flow will provide lift for scattered
thunderstorms to develop. Highs on Wednesday will be a few degrees
either side of 80.
H5 ridge along the east coast will build a little Thursday into
Friday. This will allow the humidity to build for the end of the
week, but spring like convection is expected each day into night.
The fa finds itself warm sectored as a front is stalled across the
upper Great Lakes. It is hard to put real timing in the extended
with this type of pattern. Right now went with 40 PoPs on Thursday
The ridge continues to build over the weekend, brining summer like
highs in the mid 80s. Scattered convection, however will remain a
possibility Saturday and Sunday.
Lows should be mild through the period, as they will generally
be in the mid 60s.
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will remain in control through TAF period. Expect
only a few high based cu in the afternoon. Winds light and
variable. Should see a repeat of fog at KLUK tonight if not a
little more dense possible.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon through