Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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104 FXUS61 KILN 070554 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1254 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system will exit the area tonight. High pressure will work into the area for Wednesday. A cold front and upper level disturbance will move through Wednesday night into Thursday bringing much cooler air to the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Initial mid level shortwave well to our east with broad west/southwest flow south of low moving through the northern Great Lakes. Latest satl imgry shows back edge of low clouds near the Indiana/Ohio state line. Expect these clouds to push east with lingering drizzle coming to an end as surface high pressure noses in from the west. There will be a brief period of mostly clear sky conditions, followed by an increase in high level cloudiness. Low temperatures to range from the mid/upper 20s nw to the lower 30s se. Previous discussion... More widespread precipitation is limited to extreme eastern portions of the forecast area. Some drizzle will remain across the area through the early evening hours before ending. Any drizzle is expected to end before temperatures drop below freezing. Model sounding profiles do not support a longer period of drizzle, therefore expect it to end pretty early. Have some patchy fog in early as some vsbys are reduced, however winds are expected to pick up this evening. With the drizzle coming to an end and the winds picking up, expect vsbys to improve. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... High pressure and dry conditions are expected for Wednesday. Isolated snow showers will be possible Wednesday night. The bigger story with this system will be the temperature change as much cooler air is brought into the region. Temperatures are expected to drop down into the 20s Wednesday night. Not expecting to see much in the way of temperature recovery on Thursday especially across northwestern portions of the region. High temperatures on Thursday are expected to be in the middle 20s to middle 30s. Some lake effect snow showers and lake effect flurries will continue through the end of the short term. In addition expect a decent amount of cloud cover through this time with upper trough and winds off of the lake. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... With the region under a chilly westerly flow on on Friday, bulk of snow showers should be confined to the Great Lakes, with only a slight chance for snow showers in far northern counties. Dry weather is expected areawide on Saturday when high pressure is forecast to build to the south. A cold front and wave of low pressure will approach from the west Sunday before crossing the area Sunday night. Rain will be the primary type of precip with the front, with snow mixing in at the start and end of the event. Light precip may linger Monday in the cyclonic flow off the Great Lakes. A few snow showers will be possible Tuesday in northern locations, ahead of an Arctic cold front. Look for below normal temperatures through the period. Highs Friday are forecast to be in the upper 20s, then up to around 30 Saturday. Modestly warmer readings near 40 are expected for Sunday through Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Post frontal stratocumulus will continue to move east through the early morning hours as drier air filters into the region. By morning, mid/high level clouds will be streaming across the region in a broad southwest/west flow aloft. Large upper level low centered just north of the upper Mississippi River Valley will slow rotate east and elongate today into tonight. Some embedded energy in the southwest to west flow around the low will bring another round of mid clouds to the region overnight. Precipitation looks unlikely with this energy/mid clouds as low levels will be quite dry. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible Thursday and Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...Novak/AR SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...Hickman

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