Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 300538 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 138 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary will remain across the region through much of the weekend, leading to chances for showers and thunderstorms at times. High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the Ohio Valley on Monday and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Weak frontal boundary stretching from southern IL to northern OH continues to trigger scattered convection across the region this afternoon. Once again this afternoon conditions are favorable for a few brief needle-like funnel clouds to develop: stationary boundary, very weak wind shear and low level winds, steep low- level lapse rates, and rich low-level moisture. Have this mentioned in HWO but will consider an SPS if we start seeing/receiving funnel reports. MLCAPEs are around 1000 J/kg, but mid-level lapse rates are providing some limit to storm strength this afternoon. Would not rule out a stronger storm with gusty winds through early evening, but overall severe threat will be limited. With rather weak upper flow and a rich supply of low- level moisture (PWATs around 1.7"), storms have been slow-moving and producing heavy rainfall. This will lead to a continued localized flooding threat through this evening, when storms are expected to diminish in coverage. Held on to a chance/slight chance of showers and storms overnight as some shortwave energy pushes through the region. There will be a chance for fog and low stratus development once again later tonight with lows ranging from the mid 60s north to upper 60s south. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... With the boundary still lingering over the region this weekend and a broad upper trough moving in, expect a few rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Most of this will be diurnally driven, and Saturday looks like the wetter and cloudier of the two days with better mid-level forcing. Weak mid-level lapse rates will again provide some limit to storm intensity. By Sunday night the upper trough axis will begin pushing east, and drier air will begin filtering into the region. Highs both Saturday and Sunday will be in the low to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Period begins with a weak H5 trof over the Great Lakes. In the localized nw flow, the models are dropping weak s/w into the region. The models are handling these weak disturbances differently and therefore are producing a variety of solution. The GEM hemispheric is the most aggressive as it drops a MCS thru IN and KY nicking the Tri-State region with pcpn. The GFS and to a less extent the 12Z ECMWF pop a little QPF along the Ohio River. The 00Z ECMWF was dry. Confidence is too low that the models have a handle on the situation so will continue to carry a 10 PoP in the south and less to across the nrn counties, therefore going dry. It looks like highs will be in the lower and mid 80s. H5 ridge builds in Monday night and Tuesday, which should keep the fa dry and mostly sunny. Temps will warm a couple of degrees with highs on Tuesday, into the mid and upper 80s. ECMWF continues to be the outlier, as it drops an MCS out of MN and down towards the fa Tuesday night, then bringing it across the fa Wednesday. The ECMWF has showing this for a couple of runs now. Will go with a 20 PoP to show the possibility. Hopefully future runs will bring the models into better agreement. Kept highs on Wednesday in the mid to upper 80s. Thursday looks like another dry day, then a cdfnt will start to drop towards the area for Friday. An increasingly unstable atmosphere with interact with the forcing from the front to bring a chance of thunderstorms on Friday. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Showers and thunderstorms have started to come to an end this morning with the only remaining coverage affecting the Columbus terminals. This should dissipate soon as the loss of daytime heating will help to limit coverage. This morning skies will try to clear a bit from west to east allowing for the chance of fog to return to the terminals. Towards IND skies have already cleared some with reduced visibilities being reported. Our western terminals will have the greatest chance of fog with a slightly lower chance for the eastern terminals as it will take longer to clear there. During the day today an upper level low will remain just west of the area bringing another chance of rain. GFS and NAM forecast soundings show PWATs slightly falling today but still are elevated for this time of year. Instability is also supportive of more showers and thunderstorms with k indicies in the mid 30s. Looking at high res models the highest chance of precip will be just off to our east today. This makes sense given the position of the low. Have added vicinity into all of the TAFs but think the best chance will be at KCMH/ KLCK due to them being further east. Showers and thunderstorms will then again come to an end this evening as the sunsets and daytime heating is lost. OUTLOOK...Slight chance of thunderstorms Sunday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kurz NEAR TERM...Kurz SHORT TERM...Kurz LONG TERM...Sites AVIATION...Haines

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