Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 182345 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 645 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms will continue into early evening as a strong cold front pushes through the region. Precipitation will then taper off overnight as a much cooler airmass settles into the region for Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... The surface low is moving into far northwest Ohio attm with the attendent cold front extending southwest from it across central Indiana and into far southeast Illinois. The front is forecast to sweep east across our area through early evening, As it does, the convective line along and ahead of the front will continue to overspread our area through late afternoon. These storms are being enhanced by a narrow band of marginal ML capes (generally less than 500 j/kg) advecting up into southern Indiana. The models continue to show this weakening as it progresses east into our area through early evening which may help limit the severe threat across our area. A period of heavy rain will also be likely with the storms. Overall, they should be progressive enough to limit widespread flooding concerns. However, the line does appear to be laying out a bit more west to east across our north. This is also in the area that received the heavier rain this morning, so will go ahead and continue with the flood watch and also expand it about a tier of counties to the south. A deformation axis back to the west across Illinois will pivot east across our area later this evening and into the early morning hours. This will lead to some lingering showers into tonight but they should taper off from the west later tonight as drier air works in from the west. Gradient winds out ahead of the front continue to be impressive with occasional winds gusts in excess of 40 knots occurring across our southern areas. The low level thermal fields off the NAM and GFS are both keeping pcpn mainly rain through the night over all but possibly our northwest. The cobb method is trying to show a mix developing up across our northwest later this evening possibly working east through the overnight hours and this may be more representative given the good CAA developing in the low levels. Will therefore go ahead and at least allow for a rain snow mix for a brief period before tapering off the pops overnight. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/... We will remain in weak cyclonic flow and low level CAA through much of the day on Sunday as a secondary mid level short wave pivots across the region. There will be a fetch off of Lake Michigan but moisture will generally be limited to below 850 mb. This could lead to a few snow showers through early afternoon, especially across northern portions of our area. In the CAA, expect highs on Sunday only in the mid to possibly upper 30s. Surface high pressure will build in from the southwest Sunday night allowing the low level flow to begin to back. This should allow for clearing skies Sunday night with lows dropping down into the mid 20s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Surface high pressure will push off the the east through the day on Monday. As we start to get into some return flow, temperatures will begin to moderate with highs rising into the mid to upper 40s. Short wave energy rotating across the upper Great Lakes will help push a cold front southeast across our area Tuesday into Tuesday night. Moisture is limited with this so will maintain a dry forecast at this point. Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. We will remain in a northwest flow pattern through the end of the week. There are some timing and placement differences between the models with weak energy dropping down toward the area through Friday. However, the airmass will remain relatively dry with the next chance of pcpn not until some stronger energy drops down from the northwest heading into Saturday. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Deep surface low pressure over Lake Erie to continue lifting quickly northeast through the eastern Great Lakes overnight. Showers and perhaps an embedded thunderstorm with strong southward trailing cold front moving through the TAF sites early this evening. IFR CIGs and vsbys possible in some of the heavier downpours early this evening. This pcpn will push east across the TAf sites as the front sweeps east. As the front comes through, wind gusts up to 37 kts will be possible with winds veering to the northwest. Mid level Deformation zone over Indiana with additional showers will offer a chance of lingering pcpn into the overnight hours. Will continue MVFR CIGs overnight into Sunday with improvement expected Sunday afternoon. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for OHZ026-034-035-042>046- 051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. Flood Watch until midnight EST tonight for OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051-052. KY...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for KYZ089>100. IN...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for INZ050-058-059-066- 073>075-080. Flood Watch until midnight EST tonight for INZ050. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...AR

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