Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 141751 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1251 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will shift off to the east of the region today. A clipper system will bring snow to the region beginning tonight and exit the region Monday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... High pressure will shift off to the east of the region today. Mostly sunny skies are expected with perhaps some increasing clouds from the west late. Temperatures this morning varied greatly depending on areas that cleared out versus where stratocumulus clouds hung on. Despite that, sunshine and return flow from the south should scour out shallow colder air pockets, allowing for a more uniform temperature regime by mid afternoon. Highs will range from the upper teens north to the lower 20s south. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... The lowest temperatures tonight will be across eastern portions of the forecast area where there will be less cloud cover early in the evening and also where there is the greater snowpack. Temperatures will rise overnight as cloud cover increases and WAA increases as well. Snow will begin to overspread the area tonight and remain across the region through the day on Monday and into Monday night. An initial weak disturbance pushes through late tonight into Monday morning. A secondary disturbance pushes through western and into northern portions of the region during the day on Monday. Later in the day expect additional snowfall associated with the front with the better forcing from around Wilmington up towards Columbus. Storm total snow looks to be around 1 to 2 inches along and south of the Ohio River. Near I-70 and north 2 to 3 inches look to be more likely. Winds will gust around 20 to 25 mph during the day on Monday so cannot rule out some blowing snow. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Arctic front will just be exiting the forecast area at the beginning of the period with snow lingering longest in the southeast counties, where it may not taper off until closer to Tuesday morning. Initial surge of Arctic air will bring the coldest temperatures of the week Tuesday and Tuesday night. Cannot rule out some flurries as a secondary trough swings across the area on Wednesday. For the latter part of the week, upper flow will deamplify and then transition to flat ridging. At the surface, high pressure will pass south of the region with increasing southerly flow on the back side of the high. This will lead to a warming trend with temperatures rising above normal for the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure will continue to move east of the region for the remainder of this afternoon. Some local FEW-SCT stratocumulus can be expected. A clipper system will dive southeast from the northern Plains to the western Great Lakes/Middle Mississippi River Valley tonight. Clouds will thicken from the west, and models continue to point to a period of light snow developing and moving east across the terminals late tonight into the first part of Monday. Ceilings will lower into the MVFR category with some pockets of IFR ceilings possible by KDAY. Visbilities will lower into the IFR category. For Monday afternoon into Monday evening, low pressure will move east across the Great Lakes while an arctic cold pushes east into the region. Another period of snow is expected ahead of the front with MVFR/IFR ceilings and visbilities expected as well. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and IFR/LIFR visibilities possible Monday evening. MVFR ceilings possible at times Tuesday into Wednesday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...Hickman SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM... AVIATION...Hickman

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