Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 110852 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 452 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT PIVOTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. A MIXTURE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A MODIFYING AIRMASS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH A LITTLE MORE EMPHASIS ON THE ECMWF AS IT PROVIDES A COMPRISE BETWEEN THE OTHER TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS IN TERMS OF TIMING OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEMS. FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST. OUR REGION WILL LIKELY SEE AN INFLUX OF MAINLY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...MOST LIKELY ORIGINATING FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE PIVOTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL JET AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION BRUSHES OUR NW FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA. CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AND THE MAJORITY OF OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT LOW CHANCE POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED FOR THIS REGION...LEAVING OTHER LOCATIONS DRY. THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY GIVEN CONVECTIVE DEBRIS BLOW OFF FROM THE WEST. DESPITE THIS... WE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO WARM UP SOME...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90 ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. FOR THE PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SCALE ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BEING TO DIG/ROTATE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. AS IT DOES...IT WILL PUSH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY...THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHERE THE ECMWF WAS USED AS A COMPROMISE AS THE GFS IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND THE CMC IS A LITTLE FASTER. WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACRS THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN RAMP POPS UP TO LIKELY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR VALUES TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THUS...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT (PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES) AND THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE FRONT...LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THESE THREATS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO PRODUCT AND WILL CONTINUED TO BE HIGHLIGHTED. DEPENDING ON MORNING CLOUD COVER...LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER MAY GET SNEAKY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S FORECAST. HIGHS WILL DROP OFF TO THE LOWER 80S TOWARD OUR FAR NORTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD BE PREVALENT ALONG WITH THE INCREASING THREAT FOR CONVECTION FIRST. FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...LARGE SCALE ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS SECONDARY FRONT MAY PROVIDE FOR ANOTHER LIKELY POP EVENT...BUT WILL WAIT AND SEE WHAT LATER MODEL RUNS SHOW IN TERMS OF LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THE BOUNDARY. WILL EMPLOY HIGH CHANCES POPS WITH THIS BOUNDARY FOR NOW. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 NW TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SECONDARY FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY WHILE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE THREAT FOR PCPN WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY AS CAA OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NW TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST. THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE OVER OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE COLD AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MAY BRING SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST BACK INTO EASTERN CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY COULD BE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID JULY. THE FORECAST CURRENTLY CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY COOL AS WELL...LOWER TO MID 50S. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER BY THURSDAY AS THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO UNDERGO MODIFICATION.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VERY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING AND BECOMING VARIABLE ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED VFR CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND SOME CIRRUS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KLUK THROUGH SUNRISE. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...HATZOS

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