Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 221759 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 159 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS STABILIZED IN WAKE OF MCS. DEBRIS CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN THINNING WHICH ALLOW FOR HEATING AND AT LEAST SOME DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HAVE ALREADY SEEN SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES DOWNSTREAM OF LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE MCS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT BETTER CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT REMAINS ALONG THE FAR EASTERN TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO BETTER CHANCE OF ANY ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE THERE. WITH WEAK FORCING HAVE KEPT POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY. WITH LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...OPTED TO CANCEL THAT EARLY. MADE A FEW FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON RECENT TRENDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHARPENING UP THE RIDGE. IN MUGGY AIRMASS LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NE TO THE LOWER 70S SW. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUE TO BUILD A LTL EAST SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 100 ON SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SUNDAY WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH ILN/S AREA STILL ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH...A LOW POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY. WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100 AGAIN IN THE SW. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAT FOR SUNDAY IN HWO.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY...BETTER INSTABILITIES WILL WORK MORE EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA TOO. HOWEVER...WITH WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS AND A CONTINUED LACK OF FORCING...THINK ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ISOLATED ENOUGH TO LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT THROUGH MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY PUSHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT DOWN TOWARD OUR AREA LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...BEFORE A POSSIBLE COOL DOWN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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SOME MVFR CEILINGS NEAR THE TAF SITES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER EARLY. HOWEVER PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MIST/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION IT APPEARS THAT SOME STRATUS MAY FORM WITH AREAS FROM KDAY TO KILN HAVING THE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF GETTING THE LOWER CEILINGS. THIS IS ALL PREDICATED ON THE IDEA OF NO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS FORMING TONIGHT. THAT POSSIBILITY CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT BUT THE CHANCE WAS LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FOR NOW. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS BY 15Z. OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...

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