Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 211052 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 652 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A HIGH BUILDING IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES AFFECTING PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OHIO IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LIGHT PRECIP WILL TRACK EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...MEASURABLE PRECIP LIKELY PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE. CLOUD DECK EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK TO ILLINOIS AT 07Z...SO WHILE PRECIP MAY BE DONE BY SUNRISE IT WILL BE CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY UNTIL A STRONGER VORT MAX MOVES EAST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND HELPS TO INITIATE CLEARING. WITH CLOUD COVER AND LOW HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH H5 TROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES. MAV/MET WERE GENERALLY CLOSE AND ACCEPTED. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... DRIER AIR/NVA WILL CONTINUE THE CLEARING TREND OVERNIGHT. MODELS SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN AND PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...THEREFORE THINK THE CHANCE OF PRECIP IS QUITE LOW AND MAINLY INTO EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OHIO IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE JUST HAVE SLGT CHC POPS IN THESE AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN/OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. AFTER A CHILLY START SATURDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM TIME PERIOD. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF EACH WAVE AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM AND BECOME ABOVE NORMAL AS THE LONG TERM PROGRESSES AND SW FLOW DEVELOPS. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS LOW...BUT A HIGHER EXPECTATION OF LOWER MVFR CIGS WITH THE LINGERING LL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHERLY WINDS. ONCE DECENT MIXING OCCURS...THE EXPECTATION IS THAT CEILINGS WILL LIFT INTO THE VFR CATEGORY. DRYING IN THE LOWER LEVELS DOES TAKE A WHILE (AFTER 00Z MOST LOCATIONS)...WITH MO CLR AFTER ABOUT 02Z AND WINDS BACKING TO THE SW. FOR FRIDAY...BACKDOOR COLDE FRONT TO APPROACH AREA...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING PRECIPITATION. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BPP NEAR TERM...BPP SHORT TERM...BPP LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...JDR

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