Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 170023 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 723 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Mostly cloudy skies are expected tonight along with the possibility of a few flurries. High pressure will build into the Tennessee Valley Wednesday into Thursday, leading to dry conditions and a gradual warming trend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Back edge of snow looks to be finally pushing east and should be out of our area in the next hour or so. Will therefore go ahead and allow for the advisory to end at 4 PM. Meanwhile, a low level trough axis is swinging across the area and behind this, some lower clouds are spreading back in from the northwest. These clouds should continue to overspread the area through this evening with mostly cloudy skies expected overnight. With a little better moisture intersecting the DGZ in the lower levels, will go ahead and also include a mention of some flurries tonight. The clouds should help keep temps from dropping way off and will generally go with lows tonight in the zero to 5 degree range. However, if we happen to get some decent breaks, temps would drop off quickly so will have to keep an eye on things. Assuming temperatures do not bottom out, wind chills should remain in the zero to 10 below range through tonight and plan on covering that with an SPS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Surface high pressure will begin to build east into the Tennessee Valley Wednesday into Wednesday night. This will allow for the low level flow across our area to slowly back to the northwest and then the west. This will allow for some lingering low level clouds across the area Wednesday morning to gradually scatter out from the west later Wednesday afternoon with mainly clear skies then expected for Wednesday night. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper teens to lower 20s. Despite the clear skies Wednesday night, a tightening pressure gradient should help keep the winds up somewhat. This should again keep temperatures from dropping way off and will go with lows down around 10 degrees or so. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Large area of surface high pressure to slide east across the region through the end of the week. This feature will provide dry weather and moderating temperatures. Temperatures by the end of the week will warm up closer to normal. Expect highs on Friday to range from the lower/middle 30s north to near 40 south. A southerly low level flow will develop Saturday on the backside of retreating surface high pressure. In WAA pattern a chance of a few showers will exist Saturday. Temperatures expected to warm around 10 degrees above normal with highs Saturday from the lower 40s north to the upper 40s south. Mid/upper level flow to back with s/w and deepening surface wave ejecting from the central plains Sunday into the Great Lakes Monday. In the warm sector on Sunday the best chance of rain shifts north of ILN/s FA. Therefore, will limit pops to very low chance category. Expect temperatures to be 10 to 15 degrees above normal with highs Sunday generally between 50 and 55 degrees. As surface wave tracks through the Great Lakes associated surface cold front to sweep east through ILN/s FA Monday. Therefore, will continue high pops for rain. Above normal temperatures to continue with highs of 45-50 Monday. In the wake of this front surface high pressure to build in providing dry weather Tuesday. Temperatures will continue a little above normal with highs from near 40 north to the upper 40s south. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Area of MVFR clouds has settled down over the tafs. Interesting thing about this area of clouds is that it not attached to the lakes, and therefore it could be transient. Actually numerous models are indicating this, by breaking up the clouds around 06Z. Clouds will remain scattered through 12Z, when a band of clouds off Lake Michigan will work back in. Expect the ceilings to be MVFR with this new band. MVFR Ceilings will remain through about 18Z when the back edge of band will move east leaving a few high clouds. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Saturday and Sunday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Sites

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