Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 280954 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 454 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE EAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM UP OVER THE WEEKEND. ALSO...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...THEN IT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE HIGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPARTING COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT WILL BRING A FEW FLURRIES TO THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. NOT MUCH BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AS WAA WILL BE ON THE HEALS OF THE DEPARTING COLD POOL WITH MID CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION OVER TO A MORE ZONAL CONFIGURATION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE RIPPLING SOUTHEAST WITHIN THIS FLOW TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL RANGE FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING OVERNIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT EARLY...THEN BECOME STEADY OR SHOW A SLIGHT RISE TOWARD MORNING. ON SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT A MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP OUT OF THE GULF AND WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW CLOUDS OF THE LOWER VARIETY TO INCREASE QUITE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY. THE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...AND WITH SOME WEAK LIFT...SOME LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP TOWARD EVENING. ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTH. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN...A DECENT MOIST...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE GULF. MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THAT WITH THE WAA/LOW LEVEL LIFT...PCPN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE BUT WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE. IN FACT...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL BE MAINLY 850 MB AND LOWER. DESPITE THIS...BELIEVE THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME SATURATED...AND DESPITE SHALLOW MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE LIGHT PCPN. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS AS MODELS SUGGEST THE PCPN WILL MEASURE. HAVE USED A RARITY IN THE PUBLIC ZONES WHICH IS TO QUALIFY THE RAIN AS LIGHT INSTEAD OF WORDING IT AS JUST RAIN. ANOTHER THING TO CONSIDER DURING THIS PERIOD IS THE CHANCE FOR VISIBILITIES TO LOWER DESPITE STIFF SOUTH WINDS. SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO LESS THAN 1 MILE...AND THIS COULD CONCEIVABLY HAPPEN WITH LOW CEILINGS AND PERSISTENT LIGHT PCPN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADD MIST/FOG SHOULD IT BECOME NECESSARY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP SLIGHTLY IN THE EVENING THEN SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE MILD DESPITE OVERCAST SKIES AND LIGHT PCPN. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS IN REGARDS TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF (SLIGHTLY SLOWER) AND THE 00Z GFS (SLIGHTLY FASTER) AS A SOLUTION. FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHED SOUTHEAST BY A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND. INCREASING FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND A LITTLE MORE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BRING HIGHER CHANCES FOR PCPN TO THE REGION. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN AND NOW MIXED BEFORE DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NON DIURNAL. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OF THE REGION WHILE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. PCPN WILL COME TO AN END AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S BY TUESDAY MORNING.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THERE ARE QUITE A FEW MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE TO DISAGREE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. CONTINUED FORECAST THINKING FROM YESTERDAY AND WENT CLOSE TO THE ECMWF FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MAINLY A THREAT OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND SOME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BY THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON WEDNESDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A BROKEN CLOUD DECK OF AROUND 2000-4000 FEET WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 4-8 HOURS...EVENTUALLY ENDING THE THREAT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE STILL EVIDENT ON OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR...BUT THIS SHOULD ALSO END SOON...LIKELY BEFORE 12Z. WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL SHIFT FROM WNW TO SSW...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER. WHILE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE DEPARTING THE AREA DURING THE MORNING...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN...THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. ANOTHER AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...HICKMAN/NOVAK AVIATION...HATZOS

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