-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 180147
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
947 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY. LATER ON
TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. BOTH SYSTEMS ARE
FORECAST TO EXIT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
PRECIPITATION TO COME TO AN END AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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IT WILL BE A DIFFICULT NEAR TERM FORECAST AS MODELS ARE HAVING A
TOUGH TIME HANDLING HOW FAR NORTH CURRENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WILL GET. HAVE USED A BLEND OF RADAR
TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR TO BRING LIKELY POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE RIVER WITH DECREASING CHANCES NORTH OF THE RIVER. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS BEING CAUSED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL S/WV ALONG
WITH SOME 850 MB-700 MB DEFORMATION. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT GIVEN CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS BLOW OFF. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY
AS ONE SHORT WAVE EXITS AND ANOTHER ONE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AT THE SAME TIME... A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS MAY BE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE MORNING WHERE GREATEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE WILL COINCIDE WITH EXITING FIRST AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE.
A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE HELPED BY A MODERATE MID LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AS THE COLD FRONT/SHORT WAVE TANDEM EXIT
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL REACH THE LOW 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT BACK INTO THE 60S.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION AT MID WEEK
WITH FLOW BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND OFFER
TEMPERATURES A LTL BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND CLOSE TO NORMAL
THURSDAY.

MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE
80S.

SOME MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE
BUILDS AND RESULTANT...HEAT AND SUPPRESSION OF DEEP CONVECTION.
LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF THRU SATURDAY. WILL ALLOW SLIGHT CHC POPS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOW POP CHANCE TO DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH SOME
EVIDENCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DIVE SE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. SINCE A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS TIMEFRAME
REGARDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT HAVE LIMITED POPS. SFC FRONT TO LAY
OUT ACRS SRN GREAT LAKES MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE A LOW POP CHC FOR
PRECIP WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH.

IN THE WARM SECTOR EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S BOTH SATURDAY/
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AVIATION FORECAST WILL BE DIFFICULT IN TERMS OF TRYING TO
TIME POSSIBLE CONVECTION ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

S/WV ENERGY NEAR THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING
WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY
INTO OUR REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT...BUT STILL DO NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE TO BRING TEMPO CONDITIONS AT KCVG/KLUK. SO WILL USE
VCSH/VCTS THROUGH 12Z AND WILL MONITOR RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS.
FURTHER NORTH OVERNIGHT...CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS APPEAR SMALL
ENOUGH TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AT THE TERMINALS. CONSIDERABLE
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS BLOW OFF PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS FAR ENOUGH APART THAT THE
OCCURRENCE OF MVFR MIST WILL BE LOW...SO HAVE REMOVED. THIS WILL
BE CONDITIONAL AT KCVG/KLUK SHOULD PCPN OCCUR...BUT WILL WAIT AND
SEE ON THIS AS STATED ABOVE.

ON TUESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED S/WV PASSES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH. MODELS BRING ANOTHER S/WV IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z. THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY NEAR AND
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS GOING.
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS/CB AT THE TERMINALS STARTING AT 18Z. FOR THE 30
HOUR TAF AT KCVG...S/WV SHOULD BE MOVING BY BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z
AT WHICH THE THREAT FOR PCPN WILL COME TO AN END.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN