Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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080 FXUS61 KILN 260928 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 528 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Warm and humid conditions will continue through the weekend. A weak front will drop south though the region, providing a chance of a thunderstorm. In the warm and humid airmass on Saturday, a few afternoon thunderstorms will remain possible. By Sunday into Monday, several weak upper level disturbances will provide a little better chance for a few showers and thunderstorms in the area.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A few showers and isold thunderstorms have developed in the weak low level convergence field provided by e-w weak front. These storms were developing in a region of weak instby with boundary layer cape values at or below 500 j/kg. Have included a slight chance mention of a shower or storm as this weak front drops slowly south today and loses its identity. Mid level ridge centered to our se with warm and humid airmass over the Ohio valley. Expect highs to range from the mid 80s nw to near 90 south. These warm temperatures, combined with surface dewpoints in the lower 70s will result in heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. Will mention these indices in the HWO product.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Mid level ridge axis centered to our se builds a little north and east on Saturday. Moderate instability develops Saturday afternoon across ILN/s western counties. Due to lack of significant forcing, have limited pops to slight chance across the west around the periphery of the mid level high durg the aftn. Have tweaked temperatures a ltl warmer with highs from the upper 80s nw to the lower 90s se. These warm readings combined with humid conditions will result in heat indices in the mid/upr 90s acrs the southern half of the FA. Elongated mid level ridge remains centered to our se with a s/w moving thru the Great Lakes, Saturday night/Sunday. Moderate instby develops acrs the north and have chance pops there with slight chance acrs the south, closer to mid level ridge. Warm readings expected again on Sunday with highs from the upper 80s nw to the lower 90s se. Mid and upper 90s heat indices expected again Sunday aftn.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Large area of high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will keep a westerly flatten out as a shortwave crosses north of the Great Lakes region on Sunday night. West-southwest flow at this level will turn westerly through the early part of the week and then the tropical system muddies the forecast significantly. European bombs the low into the Florida panhandle whereas the GFS barely scratches the surface pressure field and WPC forecasts are trending towards a much weaker surface field with the positioning of the European circulation. Regardless of the tropical evolution, a surface boundary should migrate from the I-70 corridor on Monday towards the Ohio River vicinity by mid week. A stronger cold front is expected to push through the region on Wednesday as a large area of surface high pressure builds in Canada. This specific evolution remains to be seen and is likely to see large forecast shifts between now and then. Numerical guidance is not showing much of a day to day change with mid 80s to low 90s for highs and overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. Diurnal heating would maximize the thunderstorm threats in the late day, but the presence of a surface boundary and moist airmass may necessitate keeping some low chance of storms through the overnight hours. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Slow moving cold front is across northern Ohio. Humid airmass in place south of the front is forecast to cause a few problems for aviators this morning. Ceilings and visibilities are expected to be reduced as low as IFR early this morning. Isolated showers may not impact TAF sites. Look for improvement back to VFR by 14z, with VFR continuing through the end of the forecast under weak high pressure. Winds will remain light, with direction changing from northwest to northeast by the end of the forecast period. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Monday and Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...JGL/AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...Coniglio

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