Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 042040 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 440 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND WORK ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON MONDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... THERE IS QUITE A CONTRAST IN DEW POINTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE 40S TO THE 60S. THIS IS EVIDENT ALSO I THE CU FIELD. WHERE THERE IS MORE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTH CU HAVE BEEN PREVALENT WHEREAS MOST OF CENTRAL OHIO HAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO WORK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. WHERE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH CLOSER TO THE LOW AND THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH. WHERE DRIER AIR STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE FA TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUICK TO DROP OFF OVERNIGHT AND HAVE TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OHIO. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BE CLOSER TO THE LOW AND THEREFORE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HAVE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. INSTABILITY IN LIMITED ON SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE KEPT THUNDER MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST. INTRODUCE CHANCE THUNDER FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BRIEFLY TAPER OFF FOR THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE FA WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE CASE AS WELL FOR MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN BECOME A QUASI-STATIONARY EAST-WEST BOUNDARY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. APPEARS THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OCCURRING THROUGH SATURDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS IN WEAK FORCING AT THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE LOWS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES. SUNDAY MORNING THERE MIGHT BE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG BUT ANY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AS THE SUNRISES. OTHER THAN THAT VFR. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM... AVIATION...HAINES

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