Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 040753 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 353 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING OCCASIONAL RAIN OM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SURFACE DEWPOINT AND MSAS PRESSURE PLOTS SUGGEST THAT THE COLD FRONT HAS NOW CLEARED THROUGH THE ILN CWA...WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND DRIER AIR COMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT INTO AN WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTATION AND STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS KENTUCKY. ASIDE FROM SOME CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...MOST OF THE ILN CWA WILL BE CONTROLLED BY HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH IS SLOWLY MOVING WSW FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERALL...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH THE LOWER TO UPPER 80S...CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... BY TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY...A BUILDING AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERING OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS KEEPING CONDITIONS FREE OF CONCERN FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA. AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY...THINGS WILL START TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BY 12Z THURSDAY...A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR ST LOUIS...ON A TRACK EAST DIRECTLY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE LOW...AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT...PRECIPITATION IS APPEARING TO BE INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR THE REGION ON THURSDAY. WITH A SIZABLE AREA OF 1000MB-500MB SATURATION...FRONTAL AND DEFORMATION FORCING...AND AN EXPECTED EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN UNUSUAL WEATHER SYSTEM FOR EARLY AUGUST. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 70 PERCENT FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA...AND CATEGORICAL POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED ONCE EXACT TIMING CAN BE FIGURED OUT. PRECIPITATION APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...WITH CHANCES BEGINNING TO DIMINISH IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA AFTER 00Z. THERE WILL DEFINITELY BE A CHANCE OF THUNDER...BUT INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT WEAK...WITH POOR LAPSE RATES IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THUS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT APPRECIABLY HIGH. THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK...WHERE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP A LITTLE MORE ROBUSTLY (PERHAPS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF KENTUCKY). WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-DURATION RAINFALL...EAST-TO-WEST LINEAR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING TWO INCHES...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A THREAT FOR FLOODING. THIS WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO. WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVING AWAY ON THURSDAY EVENING...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE. THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN...WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CROSSING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT THE WEATHER IN THE OHIO VALLEY. POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE FORECAST...BUT ONLY IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REDUCED BY ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO FOR THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE EXPECTED WEATHER SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST WILL ALSO STAY CONSERVATIVE IN THE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY FOR FRIDAY...ALLOWING A RISE OF ONLY A FEW DEGREES FROM THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... CONSENSUS LEANS TOWARDS A DRY FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE AREA ON THE NEW DAY 7 MONDAY. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS A RESULT OF YESTERDAY`S RAINFALL HAS ALLOWED A LOW TO MID CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS NOW MADE IT THROUGH THE TERMINALS AND WINDS ARE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL...MAINLY AT KCVG/KLUK WHICH SAW COMPARATIVELY MORE RAINFALL YESTERDAY. ASIDE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDS WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING A BIT...THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS FAVORABLE FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AT THE CINCINNATI TERMINALS BEFORE SUNRISE. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH SO EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO ERODE TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THUS HAVE FORECAST A PERIOD OF MVFR BR AT KCVG AND LIFR FOG AT KLUK WHICH WILL THEN QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 12-13Z UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THEN VFR CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. SOME FAIR WEATHER CU WILL DEVELOP MIDDAY WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE W/NW. OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HATZOS NEAR TERM...HATZOS SHORT TERM...HATZOS LONG TERM...BPP AVIATION...KURZ

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