Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 181557 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1057 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will strengthen as it tracks northeast across the southern Great Lakes through tonight. As the low moves by, a strong cold front will push east through the region. Colder and drier conditions will prevail for Sunday. High pressure will build back into the region Sunday night into Monday. Temperatures will rise to near normal readings for the beginning of the work week before falling to below normal readings for Thanksgiving. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Low level jet will continue to strengthen across our area through early afternoon. This will help shift the axis of better forcing north of our area over the next couple of hours so do expect to see a decreasing trend in coverage across our far north by early afternoon. That being said, we have had a swath of 1 to 2 to locally 3 inches of rain already fall across our far northern areas. It looks like the swath of the next round of heavy rain may remain just north of our area but based on what has already fallen, and the fact that some storms will be possible with the cold front later this afternoon, went ahead and issued a flood watch for our northern tier of counties. The cold front will sweep quickly east across our area late this afternoon and into early evening as a surface low rides up along the front into northeast Ohio. 12Z models continue to show some better instability off to our west pinching off as the front moves into our area but we should still at least get some marginal ML capes to advect up into our southwest. This should allow for an organized line of storms to develop off to our west this afternoon and work quickly east across our area through early evening. Given the very strong wind fields, some of the storms will be capable of producing damaging winds with the best chance for this across our southwest where the better instability will exist.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... For tonight, low pressure and the cold front will move east away from the region. There could be a brief period of mesoscale frontogenetic precipitation across the region on the back side of the departing low, otherwise, precipitation should taper off from west to east this evening. Again, winds will be gusty from the northwest with gusts up to 40 knots possible. The wind advisory is in effect until 4 am. Winds should die down some thereafter with gusts in the 20 to 25 knot range by Sunday morning. Under a moist CAA regime, clouds will remain overnight with lows bottoming out in the lower 30s northwest to the upper 30s southeast. For Sunday, in a northwest flow aloft, an embedded s/wv is forecast to dive quickly southeast into the region by afternoon. This feature, along with a cold fetch off of Lake Michigan, may be enough for a few snow showers to occur across our far northern zones. Elsewhere, it will remain mostly cloudy for a good part of the day. Outside of the lake effect, there doesn`t appear to be support for any flurry activity as the cloud layer will not be intersecting the dendritic growth zone, something you need in the winter time for snowflakes to squeeze out of the clouds. Temperatures will not show much of a diurnal rise with highs peaking in the upper 30s to the lower 40s. Locally gusty winds from the northwest can also be expected. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The ILN CWA will be on the back side of a mid level trough on Sunday night, with any snow showers in the northern half of Ohio likely coming to an end before the long term forecast period begins. Though the pattern will change a little going into the week, one constant will be the wind, as the near-surface pressure gradient will remain strong through Monday and Tuesday -- supporting gusts above 20 knots. High pressure nudging into the area from the southeastern states will force a switch to southwesterly flow on Monday, leading to a warming trend that will continue through Tuesday. As the surface high moves off the mid-Atlantic coast later Tuesday, a weak cold front is expected to move through the Ohio Valley on Tuesday night. This front will be pivoting into a WSW-to-ENE orientation, and will be far removed from its parent low (moving into northern Quebec). With moisture also lacking, a dry forecast will be maintained as this front passes through. This forecast is supported by recent GFS/CMC model runs, though it should be noted that the ECMWF model has been trending toward a deeper shortwave, and thus a solution that allows for some precipitation to occur with the front. Either way, not expecting as strong of cold advection as with the current weekend setup. Nonetheless, max temperatures will drop around 10 degrees from Tuesday to Wednesday, before starting a slow recovery through the rest of the week. Beyond this front, the ILN CWA is likely to remain between weather systems (in what is actually somewhat of an active pattern for other parts of the CONUS) through at least Friday. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... For today, low pressure will deepen as it heads northeast toward the southern Great Lakes. The overall wind field will increase as well which will bring gusty southerly winds. Showers with embedded thunder should show an overall movement toward the north as a warm front develops north of the terminals. Gusty southerly winds are expected with wind gusts at least in the 30 to 35 knot range with higher gusts possible, especially south and east. LLWS will be maintained in the terminals until front passage given strong winds between 50 and 60 knots at 2000 feet ahead of an approaching cold front. Otherwise, as the low continues on to the northeast, an attendant cold front will swing east through the region late this afternoon and evening. This will bring a focused line of showers and embedded thunderstorms. Gusty winds can be expected with any storms with stronger synoptic scale wind gusts in the 35 to 40 knot range expected behind frontal passage. Ceilings and visbilities will predominately remain MVFR with local IFR possible, especially with the frontal precipitation. For the overnight period, as the low and front continue to move away from our area, precipitation will taper off from west to east. CAA stratocumulus will then envelope the region with MVFR ceilings which will linger into Sunday. Gusty winds will reduce to 25 knots toward Sunday morning. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings to linger on Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for OHZ026-034-035-042>046- 051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. Flood Watch through this evening for OHZ026-034-035-042>046. KY...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for KYZ089>100. IN...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for INZ050-058-059-066- 073>075-080.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...Hickman

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