Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 251750 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 150 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. INCREASING RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND TODAY INTO SATURDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...LEADING TO OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM THE CONVECTION IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SO BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER TO PARTLY CLOUDY. ALSO UPPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO BASED ON THE 12Z ILN SOUNDING AND LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS. HIGHS WILL NOW RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE NW TO THE MID 80 IN NRN KY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES WELL OFF TO THE EAST. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR HIGHS TO PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SATURDAY AND GOOD DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DAY. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST...BUT AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH ML CAPES IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG IS PROGGED TO NOSE INTO AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR A THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MEANWHILE...IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ARE FORECAST TO DROP DOWN THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN INDIANA WILL NOSE INTO NORTHWEST OHIO INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE PRIMARILY OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST AND NORTH INTO SATURDAY MORNING...SO WILL LIMIT POPS PRIMARILY TO OUR NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP HEADING INTO SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS WE SHOULD STILL BE FAIRLY UNSTABLE AND THE NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL GENERALLY REMAIN JUST OFF TO OUR NORTH INTO SATURDAY EVENING...BUT LOWER LEVEL SHEAR...BOTH 0-3 KM AND 0-1 KM...WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SEASONABLY STRONG 925-850 MB JET SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT HEADING INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE PROLONGED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. WITH PW VALUES RUNNING IN THE 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL RANGE...FLOODING MAY BECOME A CONCERN. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ASSUMING WE WILL BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE...GOOD SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE PRESENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING ANOTHER SEVERE THREAT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY EVENING. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OUT OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE FA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT CLOUD COVER AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL AND WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY AFTER TUESDAY. TUESDAY LOOKS TO HAVE TO COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURES OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DIURNAL CU POPPED GENERALLY SE OF I-71 WHERE RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAINED FROM OVERNIGHT CLOUDS. THESE CU SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE CI BLOWOFF FORM CONVECTION OUT WEST CONTINUES TO SPREAD EWD INTO THE TAFS. DECAYING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO WORK TOWARDS THE TAFS TONIGHT. WHILE IT SHOULD DISSIPATE...AM CONCERNED ENUF TO CARRY A VCSH AT CVG/LUK TAFS BETWEEN 06Z-12Z IN CASE IT HOLDS TOGETHER. CIGS SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE FROM MIDWEST CONVECTION WORKS IN...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR. AFT 12Z...GETTING A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS ON WHEN CONVECTION WILL START. SO PUT A VCTS AT THE WESTERN TAFS AROUND 13Z...BUT LEFT CMH/LCK DRY THRU 18Z. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTN THROUGH SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...SITES

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