Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 232349
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
749 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016
As precipitation associated with a Great Lakes low stays north of
the area, dry weather is forecast for tonight. The dry pattern is
expected to continue Monday into Wednesday as high pressure builds
from the northwest. Potent low pressure tracking across the Great
Lakes will bring the likelihood for showers Wednesday night and
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure is centered over the Southeast CONUS, with
weak low pressure moving to Lake Michigan on a northwest flow
aloft. With most forcing and lift confined to the north side of
the low, the ILN area should remain free from precip tonight as
the low scoots eastward through the southern Great Lakes to New
York State. Cloud cover will likely increase in limited lift and
moisture convergence, and it should be more prevalent in
northeast counties closer to the weak low. Overnight lows will be
kept up in the upper 40s by the cloud cover and by mixing
resulting from winds of 5 to 10 knots.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Weak low pressure will be near the New England coast Monday
morning, with an extensive area of surface high pressure moving
back in on on northwest upper flow. Dry weather is indicated
Monday through Tuesday night when the high will be shifting slowly
eastward. Though no showers are expected, clouds will increase
Tuesday in isentropic lift well ahead of developing low pressure
over the north central states.
High temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s Monday
will be followed by lows in the mid 30s to around 40 Monday night,
allowing patchy frost to form. Highs Tuesday recovering to the
mid 50s to low 60s will be limited by the cool start and by the
increasing cloud cover.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Numerical model solutions continue to show a progressive mid level
shortwave tracking from the plains into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley
at mid week. Some timing differences exist with the solutions but
Wednesday night looks to be the best threat for rain and have
continued likely pops then. Wednesday`s high temperatures to range
from the mid 50s north to the upper 60s south. Precipitation to end
from west to east Thursday with highs from the upper 50s north to
the middle 60s south.
Surface high pressure to build in at the end of the week, offering a
return to dry weather conditions. Highs to range from the upper 50s
north to the mid 60s south.
Next surface low to approach the area later Saturday. Model solns
showing differences in strength and timing. Have held off any
precipitation until late Saturday night. On warm side of this system
and back side of retreating surface high pressure expect
temperatures to be a few degree above normal. Saturdays highs to
range from the lower 60s far north to the upper 60s south. Will
spread pops across the entire FA Saturday when the low and
associated front is expected to impact the area. Have opted to go
with more progressive solution ending precipitation Sunday but if the
system is slower then pops will be required.
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Low pressure over southeast Michigan this evening will track
quickly to the east, being located off the southeast New England
coast by 12Z Monday. As this occurs, a trailing cold front will
push southeast across the terminals between 04Z and 06Z, followed
by a surface trough between 06Z and 12Z. Moisture and ascent will
be focused along and to the left of the low track, so no
precipitation is expected with frontal passage. Ahead of the
front, a fairly strong low level jet will bring the potential for
winds from the west/southwest between 50 and 55 knots at 2000 feet,
and have placed LLWS in the northern terminals. This threat will
end after frontal passage as the jet moves away. Otherwise, winds
will veer to the west with frontal passage, then northwest to
north with the trough passage. Sustained and locally gusty winds
will diminish overnight. Models continue to suggest that some post
frontal stratocumulus should develop behind the surface trough.
The cloud height will likely be in the MVFR category, but ceiling
potential will be relegated to the KCMH/KLCK terminals where TEMPO
1500 foot clouds were employed.
On Monday, surface high pressure will build in from the northwest.
Stratocumulus will mix and lift by 17Z such that only FEW-SCT
clouds between 3500 and 4000 feet will exist.
By Monday night, high pressure will settle into the Ohio Valley.
Skies will be clear at first with some mid/high clouds streaming
in from the west late.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible from
Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon.
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