Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 191959 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 359 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY...EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST. THE AIR MASS THROUGH THIS REGION IS CHARACTERIZED BY GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. FIRE WEATHER HAS BEEN THE ONLY CONCERN FOR TODAY. CRITERIA FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS IS NOT BEING MET...BUT WINDS ARE A LITTLE GUSTY...AND RH VALUES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND 25 PERCENT. THESE MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET...WITH AN SPS ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE ISSUE THROUGH EVENING. THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT A LARGE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURES. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. MIN TEMPS WERE BROUGHT DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND MAY BE AS LOW AS 25 DEGREES BELOW THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. RAW TEMPS ON THE 12Z NAM12 APPEARED TO CAPTURE THIS COOLING POTENTIAL. GFS/RAP DEPICTIONS ARE WARMER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...WITH FEW CLOUDS AND A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...WITH THE CENTER OF THE AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION...WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM REACHING HEADLINE LEVELS. HOWEVER...RH VALUES MAY AGAIN GET SOMEWHAT LOW...AND ATTENTION WAS PAID TO THE DEWPOINT GRIDS TO ALLOW FOR MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON (WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT VALUES DURING THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE MAY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE RAW MODEL CONSENSUS). WITH ANOTHER DAY OF FULL SUN...COMBINED WITH A WIND SHIFT TOWARD A MORE FAVORABLE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN (SSE)...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY. BY MONDAY...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WITH A LARGE LATITUDINAL EXTENT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER WISCONSIN...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE HURON AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH OF THIS LOW...AND PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT. AFTER SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING WITH THE 12Z RUNS...MODEL AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY STRONG. PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z...BUT SHOULD BE OVERSPREADING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY 06Z...AND ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA BY 12Z. INSTABILITY IS STILL FORECAST TO BE RATHER WEAK AND NARROW...ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME THREAT OF THUNDER...BUT PROBABLY NOT VERY MUCH. WITH COLD FRONTAL TIMING APPEARING TO BE INTO TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARM...WITH THE CWA IN A REGIME OF SSW FLOW. WITH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO...MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY AND MIN TEMPS ON MONDAY NIGHT WERE INCREASED BY A COUPLE DEGREES EACH.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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DEPARTING FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY...LEFT LIKELY SHRA WITH CHANCE THUNDER AND THEN DIMINISHING POPS WITH FROPA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA TUE NIGHT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE HIGHER HERE WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE WEST WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR WED IN THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S...AND THEN THE BEGINNING OF RETURN FLOW WED NIGHT AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING HIGHS ON THU GENERALLY 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WED. SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH FRIDAYS SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF FASTER THAN THE GFS...THOUGH TREND OF GFS IS BECOMING FASTER. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE PRECIP TIMING AND ASSOCIATED TEMPS BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF FOR FRIDAY...THEN LEFT LINGERING LOW POPS INTO SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPR LOW TO LINGER OVER THE EASTERN GRT LAKES.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL MOVE TO EASTERN QUEBEC TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTENDED SOUTHWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW FROM DEPARTING HIGH TO OUR EAST WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HATZOS NEAR TERM...HATZOS SHORT TERM...HATZOS LONG TERM...JDR AVIATION...HICKMAN

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