Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 220758 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 358 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR ACRS THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED TO OUR NORTH OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES. MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH INTO THE NRN ZONES THIS MORNING. RADAR MOSAIC WAS STILL INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT MOST OF THIS WILL FALL APART BY SUNRISE. FOR LATER TODAY...AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD...DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TO BRING CLOUDS A PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR IF THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL HAVE TO BE EXPANDED WESTWARD. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY THAT CAN BE REALIZED. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS EVENING. ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE SE CWFA SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. A MIX OF SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS A SHEARED OUT S/WV MOVES ACRS THE REGION. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY VEER TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE DELAYED TO PERHAPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY AS UPPER HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST KEEPS PCPN TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND WITH LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S EACH DAY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE TAF SITES AT 05Z WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS MI/WI SINKING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. SCT-BKN VFR DECK WITH THIS FRONT AND FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. WITH KLUK CURRENTLY CALM WINDS AND T/TD SPREAD OF ONLY A FEW DEGREES...DID TEMPO IN A LITTLE LIGHT FOG BEFORE SUNRISE THERE. WILL MONITOR FOR THIS POTENTIAL AT OTHER SITES IN THE 09Z-11Z TIMEFRAME. FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TAF SITES AT PEAK HEATING WITH SCT-BKN VFR CUMULUS EXPECTED AS WELL AS A SHARP WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW. EXPECT SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE TO BE FAIRLY ISOLATED AND MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES SO HOLDING ON DRY FORECAST FOR RIGHT NOW. WILL REEVALUATE THIS ON THE 12Z ISSUANCE ON WHETHER TO MENTION A THREAT FOR VCSH /MOST LIKELY AT WILMINGTON OR COLUMBUS/RICKENBACKER/. WINDS QUICKLY TURN NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...BINAU

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