Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 261704 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 104 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the southeast United States will result in continued southwesterly flow across the upper Ohio Valley through the holiday weekend. This will lead to seasonably warm temperatures and the chance for a few showers or thunderstorms at times into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The forecast for this afternoon will revolve around as to what happens to the mcs currently depicted over eastern Illinois and western Indiana border per radar mosaic. This mcs has been showing a weakening trend and a slowing trend as it continues to move into a less favorable environment of instability and deep layered shear. All available models, even the CAMs, are struggling on what will exit over our area in terms of coverage by this afternoon. So, the best course of action is to monitor mesoscale and radar trends and adjust accordingly. For now, have nudged pops up in the west and southern zones to 40 percent as this seems to be the area where this feature will propagate. Will certainly have to raise pops in later forecasts if mcs still maintains some linear structure by the time it reaches our border. Temperatures will be tricky today given current cloud cover and upstream convective blow off pushing east. Will leave current forecast in the lower 80s for now, but this may have to be adjusted in later issuances. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... We will remain in a fairly similar pattern heading into the weekend with our area on the back side of the ridge in place across the southeastern United States. This will keep us in continued southwesterly flow, leading to seasonably warm temperatures through the short term period. It looks like the ridge may actually build back northwest toward our area through the day on Friday. This should again help limit pcpn chances so will just hang on to a token 20 pop Friday into Friday night. Some weak short wave energy will lift north across the area on Saturday so will bump pops up a bit into lower chance category through the afternoon. Expect highs on Friday in the mid to possibly upper 80s with highs on Saturday mainly in the mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The presence of the continued troughing/negative anomalies in the cntl US will keep a weak swly mid layer flow directed into the Great Lakes...thus convectively produced/enhanced perturbations will be a constant threat to evolve east out of plains convective systems. These will inherently run into a height/flow pattern on the nwrn side of the developing sern CONUS trough that will not be conducive to organized/strong lift...and ridging over the Appalachians/Great Lakes will be reinforced. End result - there/s a lack of surface boundaries and/or appreciable stronger s/w troughs moving through the flow to produce more enhanced/higher predictability periods of vertical motion. Thus...precipitation chances will be driven in a very weakly forced manner under marginal flows and instabilities. Thus...there is no choice but to run 20-40% chances of showers/storms each day with the notion that many hours will be dry...and many locations could go several days without seeing rain. A true summertime pattern. It would seem that weak height falls centered later Sunday into Monday with the passage of a very subtle low-level boundary may afford the opportunity to introduce higher rain chances in coming forecasts...but forcing is so weak and soundings unimpressive enough from a shear/instby perspective that it gets tough to justify it. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Initial focus this afternoon will be watching a weakening mesoscale convective system pushing into our region. Mosaic radar continues to show a weakening trend to the convection just now approaching the western periphery of our western terminals. Given a little bit better instability near the kcvg/kluk terminals, have included a TEMPO group for some mvfr tsra between 19Z and 21Z. Probabilities become a little more problematic heading farther north and east as the system continues to move into a less favorable environment. Thus, will only employ a VCTS/CB at KDAY/KILN and nothing for KCMH/KLCK based on the premise the feature will continue to weaken as it heads east. The feature should be out of our area by this evening. For tonight...we should see a mix of clouds with vfr ceilings expected. Some river fog may form near KLUK and have placed some MVFR visibilities there. Will wait for another forecast iteration before considering IFR conditions. On Friday...it looks like mid level ridge to our east will try to poke/build a little farther west. We should see some bkn cumulus during the afternoon with a pop up shower/storm possible in the heat of the day. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday through Monday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...Hickman/JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Binau AVIATION...Hickman

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