Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 251732 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 132 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure will bring dry weather today along with below normal temperatures. An upper level trough swinging through the Great Lakes will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms late Monday afternoon into early Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Highly amplified mid/upper level flow with ridge centered over the west coast and a mean trof over the Great Lakes and eastern US. Westerly flow across the Ohio Valley with an embedded s/w evident on water vapor imagery tracking through southern lower Michigan. Weak associated surface front over northern Indiana to slide east across the area today. This system has very limited moisture so only expect an increase in cumulus clouds this afternoon. High temperatures will be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal, ranging from the lower 70s northwest to the upper 70s southeast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... The diurnal cu will diminish with sunset, but a isolated cloud or two could drop through the region tonight in the fast upper flow. With mostly clear skies, temperatures will cool into the lower and mid 50s. Monday into Monday night a H5 s/w will swing through the base of the upper trof over the Great Lakes. The consensus of the models is for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop Monday afternoon and then move east Monday night. Upped PoPs to chance for Monday and Monday night. Temperatures will remain about 10 degrees below normals with highs ranging from 70-75. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure builds back in for Tuesday bringing dry weather. Highs will be a little warmer on Tuesday, reaching the mid 70s. With a turning of winds to the south on Wednesday, a more appreciable warmup will begin, with temperatures returning to the 80s. As a more progressive pattern begins to set up for Thursday and beyond, model differences become more pronounced, leading to lower confidence -- especially in precipitation timing through the rest of the week. There is agreement that a frontal zone will set up east-to- west across the southern Great Lakes, with the ILN CWA in the warm sector within solid deep-layer southwesterly flow. As convection develops at the north end of this warm sector, and along the frontal area, there will eventually be some propagation downstream which may impact the ILN CWA -- perhaps on Thursday afternoon, and then again as additional waves of precipitation occur going into Friday. How much of the CWA remains capped is a question, as is the exact position of the front. Because of this, PoPs will be kept on the lower side of things for now, with a model blend suggesting higher precipitation chances north of the ILN CWA. Differences in the evolution of an upstream trough going into the weekend will preclude more than very low confidence in the forecast late Friday into Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR conditions will prevail over the Ohio Valley through the period. Scattered cu deck around 5kft will continue to develop across the TAF sites this afternoon ahead of a weak cold front. This cold front has very limited moisture so only expect this increase in clouds. Due to the diurnal nature of these clouds, expect these clouds to diminish this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Expect to see an increase in VFR clouds Monday ahead of next mid level shortwave and associated front which may bring a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm Monday night. West winds at 10 to 15 kts will gust up to 25 kts this afternoon and then diminish to less than 10 kts overnight. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR/Sites NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Hatzos/Sites AVIATION...AR

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