Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 261704
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
104 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016
High pressure over the southeast United States will result in
continued southwesterly flow across the upper Ohio Valley through
the holiday weekend. This will lead to seasonably warm
temperatures and the chance for a few showers or thunderstorms at
times into early next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The forecast for this afternoon will revolve around as to what
happens to the mcs currently depicted over eastern Illinois and
western Indiana border per radar mosaic.
This mcs has been showing a weakening trend and a slowing trend as
it continues to move into a less favorable environment of instability
and deep layered shear. All available models, even the CAMs, are
struggling on what will exit over our area in terms of coverage by
this afternoon. So, the best course of action is to monitor
mesoscale and radar trends and adjust accordingly. For now, have
nudged pops up in the west and southern zones to 40 percent as
this seems to be the area where this feature will propagate. Will
certainly have to raise pops in later forecasts if mcs still
maintains some linear structure by the time it reaches our
Temperatures will be tricky today given current cloud cover and
upstream convective blow off pushing east. Will leave current
forecast in the lower 80s for now, but this may have to be
adjusted in later issuances.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
We will remain in a fairly similar pattern heading into the
weekend with our area on the back side of the ridge in place
across the southeastern United States. This will keep us in
continued southwesterly flow, leading to seasonably warm
temperatures through the short term period. It looks like the
ridge may actually build back northwest toward our area through
the day on Friday. This should again help limit pcpn chances so
will just hang on to a token 20 pop Friday into Friday night. Some
weak short wave energy will lift north across the area on
Saturday so will bump pops up a bit into lower chance category
through the afternoon. Expect highs on Friday in the mid to
possibly upper 80s with highs on Saturday mainly in the mid 80s.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The presence of the continued troughing/negative anomalies in the
cntl US will keep a weak swly mid layer flow directed into the
Great Lakes...thus convectively produced/enhanced perturbations
will be a constant threat to evolve east out of plains convective
systems. These will inherently run into a height/flow pattern on
the nwrn side of the developing sern CONUS trough that will not be
conducive to organized/strong lift...and ridging over the
Appalachians/Great Lakes will be reinforced. End result - there/s
a lack of surface boundaries and/or appreciable stronger s/w
troughs moving through the flow to produce more enhanced/higher
predictability periods of vertical motion. Thus...precipitation
chances will be driven in a very weakly forced manner under
marginal flows and instabilities. Thus...there is no choice but to
run 20-40% chances of showers/storms each day with the notion that
many hours will be dry...and many locations could go several days
without seeing rain. A true summertime pattern. It would seem that
weak height falls centered later Sunday into Monday with the
passage of a very subtle low-level boundary may afford the
opportunity to introduce higher rain chances in coming
forecasts...but forcing is so weak and soundings unimpressive
enough from a shear/instby perspective that it gets tough to
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Initial focus this afternoon will be watching a weakening
mesoscale convective system pushing into our region.
Mosaic radar continues to show a weakening trend to the
convection just now approaching the western periphery of our
western terminals. Given a little bit better instability near the
kcvg/kluk terminals, have included a TEMPO group for some mvfr
tsra between 19Z and 21Z. Probabilities become a little more
problematic heading farther north and east as the system continues
to move into a less favorable environment. Thus, will only employ
a VCTS/CB at KDAY/KILN and nothing for KCMH/KLCK based on the
premise the feature will continue to weaken as it heads east. The
feature should be out of our area by this evening.
For tonight...we should see a mix of clouds with vfr ceilings
expected. Some river fog may form near KLUK and have placed some
MVFR visibilities there. Will wait for another forecast iteration
before considering IFR conditions.
On Friday...it looks like mid level ridge to our east will try to
poke/build a little farther west. We should see some bkn cumulus
during the afternoon with a pop up shower/storm possible in the
heat of the day.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday through Monday.
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