Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 052047 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 347 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN STATES TONIGHT...BRINGING DRY BUT VERY COLD CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN FOR THE NEXT WEEK...WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... THE NEAR TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL BE UPDATED SOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION > WITH WINTER STORM SYSTEM PUSHING EAST...HAVE UPDATED TO DROP ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES ACRS THE WEST WHERE SNOW HAS ENDED. ONLY EXPECT AN INCH OR LESS ADDITIONAL SNOW IN OUR FAR SE BEFORE SNOW ENDS. PREVIOUS... MID LEVEL FLOW DOMINATED BY NRN STREAM OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. MID LEVEL S/W TROF TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY THIS AFTN. SFC WAVE OVER TN VALLEY WILL TRACK OFF TO THE EAST COAST THIS AFTN. AXIS OF DEFORMATION SNOW ON THE NW SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SLIP EAST OF ILN/S FA THIS AFTN. RECEIVING MAX SNOW TOTALS UP TO 16 INCHES OVER FAR SE CWA. EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES SE BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND MIDDAY. HAVE INCREASED STORM TOTALS TO REFLECT THESE LARGE AMOUNTS. HAVE DROPPED WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NW TIER OF COUNTIES FROM CINCINNATI THRU LEBANON/WILMINGTON TO LANCASTER WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ENDED. IN LOW LEVEL CAA...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE AND LIKELY REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WITH READINGS FROM THE MID TEENS NW TO NEAR 20 SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THE SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL BE UPDATED SOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION > LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE NIGHT. TRENDED TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HOWEVER STILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO DUE TO SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED...LIGHT WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FA. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI 2 SET IN 1960...COLUMBUS 2 SET IN 1901...AND DAYTON 0 SET IN 1901. CURRENT FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI NEGATIVE 2...COLUMBUS 0...AND DAYTON NEGATIVE 1. THESE FORECAST VALUES PUT THE RECORDS IN JEOPARDY. SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FA. HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS EARLY AND THEN INCREASING A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS CLOUDS INCREASE. WARMER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TIME. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A SLIGHT CHANCE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AFTER AN ACTIVE BEGINNING TO MARCH...THE EXTENDED WILL BE MORE TRANQUIL. WEAK SYSTEMS WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY WEEK. ATTM...WE SHOULD SEE JUST CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THERMALLY IN THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT HIGHS/LOWS EARLY ON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE A GOOD SNOW PACK IS IN PLACE. THIS CALLS FOR USING A GENERAL BLEND OF MODELS WHICH HAVE HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 40S AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 20S. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CONFLUENT BY MID WEEK AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A SPRAWLING AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. AGAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THIS MEANS THAT HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 50S WITH SOME 60S POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S. THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DISAGREE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. ECMWF IS STILL TRYING TO EJECT UPR LVL ENERGY FROM THE SRN STREAM WHILE THE GFS WANTS TO PUSH A WEAK FRONT THROUGH WITH A MORE DOMINATING NW FLOW PATTERN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH LATER MODEL RUNS. && .AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... IN WAKE OF WINTER STORM LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED TAF SITES LEAVING A MID DECK WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. IN LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN WITH EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AROUND 3500 FEET. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW AREAS ARE BELOW 3000 FEET ACRS THE NORTH BRIEFLY BUT EXPECT PREVAILING CONDITION TO BE VFR. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 00Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND THEN SOUTHERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS FRIDAY. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HATZOS NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...AR

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