Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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166 FXUS61 KILN 290548 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 148 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in Wednesday providing dry weather. Another low pressure system will bring additional chances for rain Thursday and Friday. High pressure will bring with it dry conditions for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Scattered light rain continues to linger across the southeastern counties early this afternoon. As H5 S/W pulls farther into the Appalachians, the pcpn should dissipate, so have the tonight forecast dry. Models keep the low level moisture trapped across the region overnight, so increased the cloud cover. Went cloudy for all locations. Bumped up low temperatures for tonight a few degrees. The lows now range from the upper 30s in West Central Ohio to the mid 40s in nrn KY. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... For Wednesday, sfc high over the Great Lakes will nose down into the fa, while H5 ridge builds up from TN and srn KY. Latest model runs are suggesting that the low clouds will erode from ne to sw tomorrow morning. This will be followed by an increase in high level clouds late in the day however. Despite the morning clouds highs Wednesday will rise to the mid 50s in West Central OH to the mid 60s the south. H5 ridge will continue to build across the region Wednesday night. Trend of the models was to be a little slower with the onset of pcpn with the next system, which is digging out of the srn plains, so held off on any pcpn Wednesday night. Lows Wednesday night will generally be in the 40s, with a few location in the extreme north making the upper 30s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Thursday will see the upper ridge breaking down and a surface low pressure system moving northeast from the midwest into northern Indiana by evening. An upper level longwave trough will develop west of the surface low and gulf moisture will stream in on a 50kt h8 jet over the western TN valley. Used thunderstorm wording during the day where pops were >55% and peppered the overnight with a straight thunderstorm potential given the strong moisture transport and stacked but elongated system. By the daytime hours on Friday, the upper low will be well south of the region but the l/w trough axis will still have to move through the Ohio Valley. Again, put pops >55% with thunder for the daytime period Friday but organized convection appears to be limited to any remnants from overnight storms. A lingering light shower may eke into Friday night but rapid improvement is expected as low pressure at the surface and aloft moves east and away from the region. The upper ridge re-establishes itself through the weekend and breaks down on Monday next week. Low pressure in the MS valley should orient nw-se and pivot into the Ohio Valley with increased chances of rain Monday night into Tuesday, and rapid improvement beyond that. Temperatures will be above normal for the bulk of the period. Highs mainly in the 60s in warm advection Thursday and Friday will be followed by near normal upper 50s Saturday under modest cold advection. Highs will be boosted back up into the 60s Sunday and Monday by warm advection ahead of the second low. Overnight lows will be above normal through the period, significantly above normal on Thursday and Monday nights given the warm advection pattern. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Low level moisture trapped below an inversion around 850 MB was resulting in lingering MVFR ceilings. Satellite imagery shows a few breaks but these should be short lived. Will continue to follow consensus of model solutions which keeps MVFR CIGS through the morning. As surface high pressure builds in from the north clouds will improve from ne to sw with VFR conditions expected this afternoon. VFR conditions will continue tonight with only an increase in high level clouds late. Northeast winds around 10 kts today will become east tonight. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities likely Thursday into Friday evening along with a chance of thunderstorms. MVFR to IFR ceilings likely Friday night into Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR/Sites NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...AR

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