Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KILN 290548
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
148 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017
High pressure will build in Wednesday providing dry weather.
Another low pressure system will bring additional chances for
rain Thursday and Friday. High pressure will bring with it dry
conditions for the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Scattered light rain continues to linger across the southeastern
counties early this afternoon. As H5 S/W pulls farther into the
Appalachians, the pcpn should dissipate, so have the tonight
Models keep the low level moisture trapped across the region
overnight, so increased the cloud cover. Went cloudy for all
Bumped up low temperatures for tonight a few degrees. The lows
now range from the upper 30s in West Central Ohio to the mid
40s in nrn KY.
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
For Wednesday, sfc high over the Great Lakes will nose down into
the fa, while H5 ridge builds up from TN and srn KY. Latest
model runs are suggesting that the low clouds will erode from ne
to sw tomorrow morning. This will be followed by an increase in
high level clouds late in the day however. Despite the morning
clouds highs Wednesday will rise to the mid 50s in West Central
OH to the mid 60s the south.
H5 ridge will continue to build across the region Wednesday
night. Trend of the models was to be a little slower with the
onset of pcpn with the next system, which is digging out of the
srn plains, so held off on any pcpn Wednesday night. Lows
Wednesday night will generally be in the 40s, with a few
location in the extreme north making the upper 30s.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Thursday will see the upper ridge breaking down and a surface
low pressure system moving northeast from the midwest into
northern Indiana by evening. An upper level longwave trough will
develop west of the surface low and gulf moisture will stream in
on a 50kt h8 jet over the western TN valley. Used thunderstorm
wording during the day where pops were >55% and peppered the
overnight with a straight thunderstorm potential given the
strong moisture transport and stacked but elongated system. By
the daytime hours on Friday, the upper low will be well south
of the region but the l/w trough axis will still have to move
through the Ohio Valley. Again, put pops >55% with thunder for
the daytime period Friday but organized convection appears to be
limited to any remnants from overnight storms. A lingering light
shower may eke into Friday night but rapid improvement is
expected as low pressure at the surface and aloft moves east and
away from the region.
The upper ridge re-establishes itself through the weekend and
breaks down on Monday next week. Low pressure in the MS valley
should orient nw-se and pivot into the Ohio Valley with
increased chances of rain Monday night into Tuesday, and rapid
improvement beyond that.
Temperatures will be above normal for the bulk of the period. Highs
mainly in the 60s in warm advection Thursday and Friday will be
followed by near normal upper 50s Saturday under modest cold
advection. Highs will be boosted back up into the 60s Sunday and
Monday by warm advection ahead of the second low. Overnight lows
will be above normal through the period, significantly above
normal on Thursday and Monday nights given the warm advection
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low level moisture trapped below an inversion around 850 MB was
resulting in lingering MVFR ceilings. Satellite imagery shows
a few breaks but these should be short lived. Will continue to
follow consensus of model solutions which keeps MVFR CIGS
through the morning. As surface high pressure builds in from the
north clouds will improve from ne to sw with VFR conditions
expected this afternoon. VFR conditions will continue tonight
with only an increase in high level clouds late.
Northeast winds around 10 kts today will become east tonight.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities likely Thursday into
Friday evening along with a chance of thunderstorms. MVFR to
IFR ceilings likely Friday night into Saturday.