Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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306 FXUS61 KILN 221726 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 126 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Multiple disturbances are expected to bring several rounds of showers and thunderstorms to the region through the weekend and into Monday. High pressure and dry conditions are expected for Tuesday into Wednesday. Another system will bring additional showers and thunderstorms to the region for Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Earlier complex this morning moved east and stratiform rain behind it with cloud cover looks to inhibit future development along the I-70 corridor today. Focus will then shift early this afternoon to the I-71 corridor where dewpoints are rapidly pushing past 75 degrees and the moist airmass will interact with moderate instability and forcing from prior storm outflows. Added heavy rain potential to the thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, reduced temperatures a degree or two in the I-70 corridor, and increased cloud cover and pops in the southeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Thunderstorms will be ongoing across northern portions of the forecast area at the start of the short term. Thunderstorm activity will sag southward through the night. Heavy rain and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. Have heavy rain mention in the forecast and in the HWO. Also mention severe threat in the HWO as well. Activity will decrease towards the end of the night tonight, however additional thunderstorms are expected to develop during the day on Sunday. There will be an additional severe threat during the day on Sunday with damaging winds again the primary threat. Heat index values on Sunday will be a little lower than today, however heat index values are still expected to be in the 90s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Warm and humid conditions will persist at the beginning of the period. But a cold front will slide through the area on Monday. There could be a few storms along and ahead of the front. High pressure will build in behind the front on Tuesday. But as the high center quickly tracks from the Great Lakes into New England, the trailing ridge axis will get pinched off by Wednesday. So more humid conditions will quickly return in advance of an approaching cold front. This front will move southeast across the area Thursday afternoon into Thursday night with a good chance of thunderstorms. Drier air will be slow to filter in at the end of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Until showers and thunderstorms hit the TAF sites, VFR conditions will be present in a muggy atmosphere. Overnight may see vsbys drop to the MVFR category in mist, and storms will remain possible at any time for entire forecast area through the next 24-30 hours. Model guidance is problematic and timing/occurrence/placement of storms remains in high question in this moist and conditionally unstable airmass. Will try to limit thunderstorm potential to where it has the highest probability. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible Sunday and Wednesday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ070-071-078- 079. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ077. KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ089>100. IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ058-059-066- 073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...Franks SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM... AVIATION...Franks

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