Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 150019 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 819 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT CHANGING PRECIPITATION FROM RAIN TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY AND CENTER ITSELF ALONG THE OHIO/WEST VIRGINIA LINE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUTH FLOW WILL LET THE END OF THE WEEK WARM A BIT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS OUT OF THE MID SOUTH LARGE SCALE LIFT IS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS HELPING TO PUSH AN AREA OF RAIN INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS ALSO INCREASING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE TRI-STATE THIS EVENING. NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION. AS THERMAL PROFILES COOL RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SLEET DURING THE TRANSITION. WARM GROUND WILL HAMPER ACCUMULATIONS. BUT WITH THIS OCCURRING AT NIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE BURST OF PRECIPITATION...DO EXPECT MUCH OF THE REGION TO BE WHITE BY DAYBREAK...MAINLY ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. FORECAST TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK REASONABLE AND FREEZE WARNING WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TRI-STATE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... COLD AIR BEING USHERED IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A FREEZE WARNING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE CINCY METRO AREA. A FEW COUNTIES...NAMELY BROWN...CLERMONT...AND HIGHLAND MAY DIP TO FREEZING LATE BUT THEY ARE BARELY AT THIS LEVEL FOR MORE THAN AN HOUR AND I OPTED TO LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE WARNING. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO PUSH TOWARDS 40 IN MOST LOCATIONS. WITH REGARDS TO THE FREEZE WATCH TUES NIGHT/WED MORNING...EVERYONE IN THE PROGRAM - WHICH INCLUDES THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF CWA - NEEDS TO BE INCLUDED AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOLIDLY INTO THE 20S. RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ON WEDNESDAY AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO RECOVER A GOOD BIT FROM THE MORNING LOWS. IT WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH READINGS TOPPING THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION IN SLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO PUSH INTO THE 60S. MODELS HAVE STARTED TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION FOR FRIDAYS SYSTEM KICKING OF THE NATIONS MID SECTION. THE GFS IS MUCH LESS ENERGETIC AND WOUND UP WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE STRONGER. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS ACTUALLY WEAKENED THE SYSTEM A LITTLE. FRIDAY SHOULD START OFF DRY...WITH POPS INCREASING DURING THE DAY...BUT IN THE CHC CATEGORY. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE CARRIED IN THE W. THE BEST LIFT COME ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT...SO CARRIED THE BEST POPS THEN. THE SYSTEM PULLS E ON SATURDAY...LEAVING A LINGERING CHC OF SHOWERS. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY WHILE THE ECMWF PUTS MORE FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH INDUCES A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE ENSEMBLES ARE LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION...SO DOWNPLAYED THE NRN STREAM ENERGY. WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. ON FRIDAY...HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S...WITH THE SE STAYING AROUND 70. OVER THE WEEKEND HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY START MVFR. RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS WILL CAUSE CEILINGS TO FALL TO IFR. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY. AS COLD AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET DURING THE TRANSITION. APPEARS THAT SNOW WILL BE HEAVIEST SHORTLY AFTER THE CHANGE OVER WITH IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITIES. THERE WILL STILL BE PERIODS OF SNOW TO AROUND 12Z BUT EXPECT LESS INTENSITY AND THUS BETTER VISIBILITIES AFTER INITIAL BURST. AFTER SNOW ENDS THE CEILINGS WILL START TO LIFT. COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERED CLOUDS BUT CEILINGS WILL PREDOMINATE WITH VFR CONDITIONS NOT RETURNING UNTIL AROUND OR EVEN AFTER 18Z. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OHZ077>082-088. FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR OHZ077. KY...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ089>100. FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ089>092- 094-095. IN...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR INZ073>075-080. FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR INZ073>075- 080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...

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