Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 300027 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 827 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND A DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE WEEKEND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS IN PLACE...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE CWA AND EVEN CLOSE TO 100 IN A FEW SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL HELP FUEL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE WHITEWATER AND MIAMI VALLEYS...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AS THIS FRONT MOVES EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA...EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING/PROPAGATING FURTHER EAST THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OHIO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE SHEAR WILL BE WEAK AND WILL LIMIT OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION...DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABLIZATION WILL PROMOTE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO FUEL SOME STRONGER AND PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM WET MICROBURSTS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT. LOCAL FLOODING CAN/T BE RULED OUT...BUT STORM MOTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD RISK. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE AFTER DARK...BUT WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOME ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OHIO PRIOR TO THE FRONT MAKING IT THROUGH THE CWA LATE AT NIGHT. MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/... DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 1 INCH AND DEWPOINTS LIKELY DROP BELOW 60 F. RESULT WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH LOWER HUMIDITY THURSDAY. DRY/CLEAR TREND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN FEATURES AND THEREFORE HAVE USED A BLEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH INDIANA...FINALLY USHERING IN A DRIER AIRMASS AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 02/03UTC IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS. WITH THE INTENSE RAINFALL AT SOME LOCATIONS...KEPT IN THE MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR 12Z FOR KILN/KLUK ESPECIALLY...AS WELL AS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS...THOUGH LESS CONFIDENCE HERE. OTHERWISE VERY LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WITH SKC FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BPP NEAR TERM...BPP SHORT TERM...BPP LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...JDR

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