Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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304 FXUS61 KILN 231950 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 350 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will drop southeast across the area this evening and will interact with the moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy. This will produce periods of heavy rain this afternoon into tonight. Behind the system, temperatures will drop below normal for the weekend and into early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Showers and thunderstorms continue across the central parts of the CWA this afternoon with a surface cold front currently located near Fort Wayne, IN. Tropical Depression Cindy was centered over western Kentucky and is forecasted to eject northeast this evening. Latest runs of the ARW, NMM have the center of Cindy tracking just south of Lewis county KY. The latest 18z KILN forecast sounding also showed a PWAT of 2.22". Even though this does not break the daily record it is near the max value. Showers and thunderstorms will likely continue and slowly sag southwards this afternoon. This is in part to the extremely high moisture and the approaching RRQ from the upper level trough axis. Due to the mentioned above have continued the Flash Flood Watch as is for the entire area. It should also be noted that across our southwestern zones rain has yet to occur allowing the atmosphere to destabilize. ML Cape values of 1000 J/kg with effective shear of ~40kts will allow for some storms to become severe. Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be the primary threat. Finally the upper level trough axis will push directly overhead. As this occurs a surface cold front will move through the area around 10pm. The surface cold front will then clear the area early Saturday morning. Right behind the cold front winds will pickup briefly as strong CAA moves in.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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During the day Saturday surface high pressure over the midwest will slowly nudge into the area with PWATs plummeting from 2.22" to less than 0.80" by Saturday evening. During the day Saturday some high res models are indicating some pop up showers possible but looking at forecast soundings shows that there will likely not be enough moisture for this. Overall have kept precipitation out of the forecast for Saturday. High temperatures Saturday will be in the mid to upper 70s with dewpoints falling off into the upper 50s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Mean mid level trof over the Great Lakes with surface high pressure nosing into the Ohio Valley this weekend. A few showers or thunderstorms will be possible across the north during the afternoon Sunday. Cool temperatures look to be 5 to 10 degrees below normal with highs on Sunday from the lower 70s north to the upper 70s far south. Mean trof becomes more amplified over the area, so a contd threat of showers or thunderstorms will be continued Monday. Cool temperatures to continue with Mondays highs expected to be in the lower 70s. Warm front to develop over the Great Lakes with southerly flow increasing. Temperatures will continue to moderate with highs Thursday in the lower and middle 80s. The ECMWF and Canadian solns bringing a progressive system through the Great Lakes Thursday, while the GFS holds off pcpn. With an increase in moisture have allowed for a slight chance of a thunderstorm but confidence is not high in this chance. Models solns sharpen up mid level trof over the eastern Great Lakes which may lead to a few showers or thunderstorms over the northeastern counties. Rather cool readings to continue Tuesday with highs generally in the mid 70s. Surface high pressure slide east with southerly low level developing on its back side at midweek. Expect dry conditions with a warming trend. Temperatures will be closer to normal with highs on Wednesday in the lower 80s. Westerly flow aloft with surface wave tracking through the northern Great Lakes. This will allow an associated surface front to drop south into the southern Great Lakes and stall out. Have limited pops to chance category with the highest pops northwest Thursday. On the warm side of this system, expect temperatures to reach highs in the lower and middle 80s Thursday. Another progressive wave and associated frontal boundary expected to approach from the west increasing thunderstorm chances Friday into Friday night. Model solution strength and timing differences exist regarding this system. Due to this spread, uncertainty increases.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A band of showers with some embedded thunder are currently located along a KDAY to KCMH line. A secondary batch of showers have formed just to the south with coverage expected to continue into the afternoon. This secondary batch has had a little more instability to work with and therefore some gusty winds will be possible. A surface cold front was also currently located in northwestern Indiana. Tropical Depression Cindy will also continue to push northeast and bring a second batch of rain which should be mainly south of the TAF sites. During the day today most of the TAF sites will be MVFR with restrictions to VLIFR in heavier cells. Later this evening the front will slowly sag southeast pushing the rain southeast with it. Overnight tonight skies will slowly clear from the northwest as the cold front pushes through. Guidance is hinting at some lower visbilities Saturday morning as skies clear, but with dropping dewpoints have decided to leave this mention out. Saturday afternoon weak CAA overhead and ~20kt low level jet will allow for some wind gusts in the TAFs. The GFS and NAM forecast soundings are indicating around 20kts possible via momentum transfer. OUTLOOK...Intermittent MVFR ceilings possible Saturday through Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ042>046- 051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Saturday for KYZ089>100. IN...Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Saturday for INZ050-058-059- 066-073>075-080.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...Haines SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Haines

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