Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 282351 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 751 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH DIURNAL CLEARING AND CONTINUED CAA WILL RESULT IN NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DAY/CMH RECORD LOW FOR THE 29TH IS 51...WHILE CVG RECORD LOW IS 53. ONLY CMH NOT FORECAST TO MEET THE RECORD ATTM. VALLEY AREAS MAY DIP BELOW 50. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... WITH ALL MODELS KEEPING THE UPR LOW OVER THE ST JOHNS BAY AREA WITH TROUGH DOMINATING THE GT LAKES...HAVE CONTINUED DIURNAL CU AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE MID 70S. SFC FLOW BACKS TO LIGHT WESTERLY BY OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR NOT QUITE AS COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT STILL SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL. HAVE GENERALLY WENT A LITTLE COOLER THAN MOS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF A H5 LOW...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY KICKS OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND ROTATE NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND THE SRN STREAM H5 FLOW RUNS THRU THE DEEP SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT FEEL THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPENS AND SHARPENS THE TROF OVER THE FA. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SWAPPED SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF NOW LINGERS THE H5 TROF DEEPER AND LONGER THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN A LITTLE MORE PCPN PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROFS LIFTS E. BY MONDAY...THE S/W TROF HAS LIFTED NE OF THE REGION...SO LEFT MONDAY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE HIGHS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT EITHER SIDE OF 80 THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK TOWARDS 12Z. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL. A BROKEN TO SCATTERED DECK WILL DEVELOP WITH HEATING ON TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z PARTICULARLY AROUND KDAY. BUT PROBABILITY AND EXPECTED IMPACT ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS POINT. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDR NEAR TERM...JDR SHORT TERM...JDR LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...

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