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499
FXUS61 KILN 300151
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
951 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid conditions will continue today and Monday,
with chances for showers and thunderstorms continuing. A cold front
will move through the area early Tuesday, with drier conditions
expected through the middle of the week. Warmer temperatures are
then expected again going into next weekend, with the potential for
a return of rain and storm chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Weak disturbance in southern Indiana continues to generate showers
and some thunderstorms which will likely pivot into the Tri-State
late this evening. Indications are that this will weaken heading into
the early overnight hours. But then another disturbance associated
with the decaying convective system in southern Missouri this evening
may generate more showers and storms late tonight into early Monday
morning, particularly across western counties. Main concern overnight
will be locally heavy rainfall, especially if any cell become
anchored.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The clusters of SHRA/TSRA expected to stretch from EC/SE IN through
the Tri-State into N KY early Monday morning will slowly drift to the
ENE, with the expectation for a slow weakening into late morning
before redevelopment occurs on a more widespread scale by early
afternoon with diurnally-enhanced destabilization supporting clusters
throughout the local area.

The overall setup on Monday is similar to today from a thermodynamic
perspective -- the soundings look quite similar, with PWs approaching
2 inches, and uncapped SBCAPE approaching 2000 J/kg. The difference
in the convective potential on Monday is two-fold. For one, there
will be a more well-defined source of forcing, as a shortwave moves
east through Illinois and Indiana and provides a source of large-
scale ascent. For two, the deep-layer wind flow will be a bit stronger,
with 25-30 knots of 0-6km bulk shear. While not a particularly high
value, it will be enough to support some storm organization (as well
as greater coverage), and perhaps a little bit of a greater chance
for damaging winds. Heavy rain will remain a concern as well, although
storm motions should be markedly quicker than with the activity today
and the past several days. So, while the threats expected from storms
on Monday are generally similar to the past few days, the overall
coverage of storms will be greater -- with a little higher probability
of storms becoming severe. The spatial expanse of this potential is
approximately the same across the local area.

ISO SHRA/TSRA is expected to continue in the local area through
Monday night as the front approaches from the W toward daybreak. In
fact, we may see another increase in coverage of activity during the
predawn hours Tuesday from WC OH through EC IN as the front
approaches and the environment remains sufficiently saturated and
unstable.

Highs on Monday will be seasonable -- topping out in the lower to
mid 80s amidst humid/stormy conditions. Temps bottom out in the
upper 60s and lower 70s by Tuesday morning as the front progresses
into the ILN FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front will finish pushing east through the Ohio Valley on
Tuesday. Since there is some timing uncertainty regarding exact
timing of FROPA, there are lingering chances for showers and
thunderstorms along and southeast of I-71 into Tuesday afternoon.
These locations may remain dry if frontal passage ends up occurring
earlier Tuesday morning. Behind the front, high pressure builds in
bringing dry, seasonable conditions through at least Thursday.

Low end shower and storm chances return to the forecast on Friday
when surface high pressure shifts east allowing more heat and
moisture to return. These low probability rain chances continue into
the weekend since some diurnal instability is forecast each
afternoon and there is a chance that a weak front could approach
from the north.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Showers and storms developing in central Kentucky may affect the
Cincinnati terminals between 04Z and 07Z before weakening. However,
there is the potential for some additional activity to develop and
push across the area after 07Z. Confidence on how this evolves is
not particularly high so have only gone with PROB30 for this. It
does appear that stratus will redevelop late tonight and continue
well into the morning. Have brought these clouds in as a low MVFR
deck. This should break about the time daytime showers and storms
develop.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...