Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 250537 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 137 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS ALLOWED FOR PLEASANT CONDITIONS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS CONTINUED TO PULL EAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR WARMING CONDITIONS ALONG WITH RISING HUMIDITY. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...MOIST...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ALOFT TO BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST AND FLOW OVER OHIO VALLEY BACKING SRLY LATE TONIGHT. LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION SHOWING UP ON RADAR MOSAIC LIFTING NORTH INTO CENTRAL TN. HRRR AND RAP SOLNS SHOW THIS CONVECTION WEAKENING AND PUSHING INTO ILN/S SW COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED ORIENTATION AND SPEED OF PCPN AND WITH WITH LACK OF INSTBY HAVE LIMITED MENTION TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. WITH SRLY WINDS STAYING UP AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN WAA PATTERN TEMPERATURE WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NE TO THE UPPER 60S SW. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO BECOME DISLODGED MONDAY ALLOWING FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO PUSH EAST AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WITH A LINE OF PVA SLOWLY MOVING EAST. THIS THIN LINE OF PVA WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH RES MODELS ARE SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THIS LINE OF POSITIVE VORTICITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING LOWER END INSTABILITY WITH K INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THIS ALL SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. IT WILL ALSO BE WINDY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH SOME OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES POSSIBLY SEEING SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 20 KTS. BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE OF PVA THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN. ON TUESDAY THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT SWINGS THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS THAT EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL FINALLY HELP TO CLEAN UP THE FLOW AND MOVE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES. THE JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO PUSH TO THE EAST PUTTING THE AREA INTO A RRQ. SPC HAS THE SW PART OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TUESDAY HAVE CAPE VALUES JUST ABOVE 500 J/KG. INSTABILITY IN THE SOUNDING STILL IS TAKING ON A SKINNY CAPE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR WIND BUT THIS THREAT STILL REMAINS PRETTY LOW AT THIS TIME. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR MID WEEK WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WHILE PCPN CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF ANY EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES...WILL TRY TO SHOW SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT TO THE PCPN CHANCES FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INITIALLY THIS WILL LEAD TO A LITTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF LULL IN THE PCPN CHANCES. A BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN WILL THEN RETURN LATER FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN TOWARD OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS SO AM HESITANT TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE POPS AT THIS POINT. HIGHS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...SOME MORE SEASONABLE READINGS MAY RETURN FOR SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS SPREADING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH 925-850MB LAYER FLOW UP TO 50KTS AT TIMES AS THIS LOW LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM SHIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SCT-BKN MID CLOUD AND CIRRUS ARE ON THE INCREASE OVER OH/IN/KY...AND A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SPREADING STEADILY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER IN KY/IN OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. EXPECT THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE UP INTO SWRN OH BY ABOUT 08Z THOUGH EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND LIKELY JUST VIRGA/SPRINKLES. DID KEEP VCSH GOING FOR A TIME ACROSS ALL BUT THE CNTL OHIO SITES THROUGH MID MORNING AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH. CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR. BIGGER STORY IS STRONGER FLOW WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX TO THE SURFACE AROUND 12Z WITH GUSTS BECOMING COMMON. EXPECT THE STRONGEST GUSTS THIS MORNING /BEFORE 17Z/ WITH ONSET OF HEATING AND PRESENCE OF STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT...AND SOME GUSTS TOWARD 30KTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THOUGH WILL KEEP TAFS IN THE 25-27KT RANGE. DID NOT PLACE LLWS IN TERMINALS DUE TO GRADUAL INCREASE IN SPEEDS/LACK OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 2KFT. WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE SOME MECHANICAL TURBULENCE ESPECIALLY IN THE 08Z-11Z TIMEFRAME BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE TO DECREASE SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 2KFT. AFTER 18Z...COMBINATION OF FORCING FROM WEAK SHORTWAVE AND DEEPENING MOISTURE SHOULD PROMOTE SHOWERS/STORMS IN SCT FASHION INTO EARLY EVENING. WEAKLY/LOOSELY FORCED SO WILL KEEP VCSH MENTION FOR NOW. EXPECT MID CLOUDS AND DECREASING/BACKING FLOW THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS WANE. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAINES NEAR TERM...HAINES/AR SHORT TERM...HAINES LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...BINAU

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