Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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433 FXUS61 KILN 100230 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 930 PM EST Fri Dec 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Building high pressure will keep temperatures below normal tonight into Saturday. Then a complex low pressure system will affect the Ohio Valley Saturday night into Monday, bringing a mix of snow and rain. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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We are continuing to see some weak returns on radar. With the sun now down and temperatures in the 20s, we are starting to get some reports of very light accumulations and a few slick spots. Have updated the forecast to include scattered snow showers into the early morning hours across about the northern two thirds of the area. Any accumulations should be light but have issued an SPS to account for isolated slick spots on roadways. The low level flow will ever so gradually back overnight and this should allow for the flurry/snow showers to gradually taper off. This may allow for clouds to begin to erode away across our southwest late tonight but for the most part expect cloudy skies across the area overnight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Surface high pressure will cross the region on Saturday. This high will provide dry weather and continued cold temperatures. With a mix of clouds and sun, highs will range from the upper 20s across the north to the lower 30s across the south. As the H5 flow backs Saturday night, isentropic lift increases. The 12Z remains the outlier keeping the waa pcpn north of the fa. The other models are farther south, bringing the axis of the pcpn across nrn IN into nrn OH, with the nrn part of the fa on the southern edge of the steady snow. The 18Z has come in farther south, matching closer to the other 12Z solutions. Kept snow chances from about I-70 north with perhaps an inch or two of snow across the far north overnight. Lows Saturday night will be in the lower to mid 20s. WAA pcpn continues to slide east across ILN/s nrn counties Sunday morning with pcpn filling in from the west durg the afternoon as favorable lift develops associated with 8H 55-60 kt low level jet. Expect pcpn to remain snow across the far north with a snow to rain/snow mix acrs the central and south. Eventually under the influence of waa, the entire cwa turns over to rain Sunday night. An additional additional inch of snow accumulation is possible prior to the change to rain across the far north. Temperatures on Sunday will warm to the mid 30s far north to the lower 40s far south. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Monday starts with a strong surface low and warm front through the Ohio Valley, followed sharply by a cold front and rapidly falling temperatures from west to east. This follows a H5 shortwave moving east past the Great Lakes region. High pressure at the surface will be ushered in behind it and last until about Wednesday. On Wednesday, the zonal H5 flow will contain a broad trough pushing in from the west and a broad area of frontogenetic forcing will occur in the mid levels over the eastern U.S. European model is quicker to push the deeper moisture east on Wednesday and subsequently much lighter in any potential for snow. Temperatures should remain cool and thicknesses support snow for the remainder of the forecast. High pressure builds at the surface Wednesday night and dries out the region through Friday. Models continue to advertise a cool extended period with below normal readings regardless of the timing or placement differences of the Wednesday system. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Cigs are continuing to bounce between MVFR and low VFR early this evening and would not be surprised if this continues through much of the overnight hours. We are also still seeing quite a few light returns on radar so some flurries will also likely linger into the overnight hours. Otherwise, as we start to get into some low level WAA, the lower clouds should begin to erode away Saturday morning with VFR conditions then expected through the remainder of the TAF period. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities possible Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR/Sites NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...JGL

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