Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 251754 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 154 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A southerly flow ahead of low pressure will provide warm temperatures and mainly dry weather today. Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop tonight through Sunday when the low is forecasted to travel to the Western Great Lakes. Another upper level disturbance will then move across the area Monday afternoon into Tuesday providing a continued chance of showers and thunderstorms for the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A vertically stacked low pressure can be seen rotating across the midwestern United States this morning on WV with a stalled boundary located in northern Ohio. This low pressure will slowly pull northeast today with the stalled boundary across northern Ohio pulling north as a warm front. As the low approaches the forecast area this afternoon weak PV will move across the area along with weak WAA. This mornings KILN sounding revealed a PWAT of 0.83" (which is slightly above the 75th percentile for this time of year) with an 850mb temperature of 10 degrees C. Forecast soundings for this afternoon show PWATs continuing to slowly rise but a stubborn CAP slow to erode. Given this CAP it is not surprising that high res models don`t show much precipitation for this afternoon. Not until late this evening does a band of precip from the upper level low arrive across our far western zones. Given the mentioned above have delayed onset of precipitation a couple of hours later. Prev Discussion-> A vertically stacked low pressure system will move slowly to Missouri today. Moisture will increase gradually in the southerly flow ahead of the low, producing mainly mid and high clouds. However, a few showers and thunderstorms may develop primarily over western counties this afternoon in a modestly unstable regime containing under 200 J/KG CAPE. Have backed off PoPs from previous forecasts due to slower progression of the system. High temperatures in the low to mid 70s will be close to 20 degrees above normal. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure system will be lifting from Missouri to Chicago tonight through Sunday. Even though the system will be weakening as it moves into a broad upper ridge, a large swath of moisture and lift ahead of the low will impact the ILN area. Showers will become widespread tonight through Sunday, and thunderstorms will also be possible. Severe weather threat appears to be limited by marginal CAPE of around 500 J/KG. High temperatures will be reduced by clouds and precip, with highs in the 60s expected. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... An active weather pattern for the upcoming week. Initial upper level and surface low to lift northeast across the Great Lakes Sunday night. Precipitation to come to a temporary end Sunday night into Monday, as ridging builds in ahead of next upper level trof. Monday starts out dry early with pcpn overspreading the region, as next shortwave and surface low tracks northeast from the southern plains into the Great Lakes Monday night. In the warm moist environment temperatures on Monday to rise to highs from the upper 60s north to the lower 70s south. As this system pushes off to the east the pcpn to end Tuesday, as surface high begins to builds into the Great Lakes. Temperatures will remain above normal, with Tuesday`s highs ranging from the lower 60s north to the upper 60s south. Surface high to slide east across the Great Lakes Wednesday. This will provide dry weather with temperatures closer to normal. Highs on Wednesday to range from the upper 50s northwest to the mid 60s southeast. Model solutions diverge on handling late week weather system. GFS showing an open wave in split flow pattern, while the more consistent ECMWF and Canadian solutions show a closed low. Will trend the forecast toward the ECMWF/Canadian. Will bring chance pops in Thursday and increase these pops to likely Thursday night into Friday, as the upper low and associated surface low lift northeast from the mid MS Vly into the Great Lakes. As instby increases will include a chance of thunder Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Highs Thursday and Friday generally 60 to 65. Precipitation is expected to end early Saturday as weak high pressure builds into the region. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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All TAF sites currently VFR this afternoon as a surface low over the Midwest slowly pulls northeast. Latest runs of high res models continue to show precipitation moving in from the west around 6z Sunday morning. The showers and isolated thunder Sunday morning will move into the area in the form of a band and will likely loose cohesion as it progresses eastwards. Sunday afternoon forecast soundings begin to destabilize with ceilings lowering towards MVFR as the upper level low moves over central Indiana. As forecast soundings destabilize showers and thunderstorms will develop across the forecast area with higher coverage across our eastern TAF sites. Thunder will be likely in any storms that develop Sunday afternoon into evening. The chance of precipitation will continue into Sunday evening as the upper level low moves overhead. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible late Monday into Tuesday morning.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio/Haines NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Haines SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Haines

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