-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 150529
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
129 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push east across the region through the day
on Sunday, leading to a chance of showers, isolated
thunderstorms and breezy conditions. A drier and cooler airmass
will then settle into the area through the first part of the
work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Progressive mid level shortwave to eject northeast from the
the northern plains across the Great Lakes Sunday. Surface low
over the upper MS Vly to deepen as it tracks northeast across
the Great Lakes Sunday. Associated Strong surface cold front to
sweep east across ILN/s FA Sunday. Clouds will increase
overnight in advance of this cold front.

As the pressure gradient begins to tighten, southeast to south winds
will begin to begin to pick up late tonight. Temperatures will
from near 60 in the far east to the mid/upper 60s northwest.
These readings will steady out late and possibly even slowly
rise as clouds and winds increase.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Mid level short wave energy will move out of the mid Mississippi
Valley across the Ohio Valley through the day on Sunday. This
will help push a cold front east across our area through early
afternoon. Deeper moisture is somewhat limited and the models
are in decent agreement that the instability will remain pretty
marginal along and ahead of the front through the day. As a
result, will continue to just go with likely showers with a
slight chance of some embedded thunderstorms along/just ahead
of the front. The wind fields are fairly strong so if we are
able to destabilize enough, suppose a very low end severe threat
would not be out of the question across our far east. As the
cold front moves through and we start to get into some CAA,
expect to see some non diurnal temperatures, especially across
the east where the highs should occur fairly early in the day.
A tightening pressure gradient will also lead to breezy
conditions through the day with wind gusts in the 30-40 mph
range possible. A drier and cooler airmass will then filter
into the area behind the front Sunday night. Lows Sunday night
will be in the low to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
For Monday, a cold front pushed by an upper trough will be east
of the area. An expansive area of high pressure following the
front will stretch across most of the CONUS under a confluent
zonal flow aloft. High pressure and a dry airmass are then
forecast to remain over the region through the end of the long
term. Current model projections suggest no precipitation in a
regime of subsidence and low humidity, with rain chances close
to zero through Saturday.

Temperatures will be below normal to start due to cold advection on
a northerly flow behind the front, with highs reaching the upper 50s
on Monday. Patchy frost will be possible Monday night when lows will
fall into the 30s under clear and calm conditions, especially in
eastern locations. A gradual warming trend under increasing
geopotential heights and a southerly low level flow will allow highs
to reach the low to mid 70s by late next week, about 10 degrees
above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The passage of a cold front today will be the main focus for
impacts to aviation. This front will bring periods of gusty
winds this afternoon (up to 30-35 knots) along with a wind shift
from the SSW to the WNW in the 16Z-20Z time frame. This front is
likely to bring showers to the area, along with a period of MVFR
ceilings for all TAF sites. Going into the evening hours,
ceilings should lift to VFR, and winds will diminish as they
settle in to a NNW direction.

Some low level wind shear is also possible this morning.

There is also a very low probability of thunder at the TAF sites
as the cold front moves through, and this is too low to include
in the forecasts.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...Hatzos