Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 150529 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 129 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push east across the region through the day on Sunday, leading to a chance of showers, isolated thunderstorms and breezy conditions. A drier and cooler airmass will then settle into the area through the first part of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Progressive mid level shortwave to eject northeast from the the northern plains across the Great Lakes Sunday. Surface low over the upper MS Vly to deepen as it tracks northeast across the Great Lakes Sunday. Associated Strong surface cold front to sweep east across ILN/s FA Sunday. Clouds will increase overnight in advance of this cold front. As the pressure gradient begins to tighten, southeast to south winds will begin to begin to pick up late tonight. Temperatures will from near 60 in the far east to the mid/upper 60s northwest. These readings will steady out late and possibly even slowly rise as clouds and winds increase. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Mid level short wave energy will move out of the mid Mississippi Valley across the Ohio Valley through the day on Sunday. This will help push a cold front east across our area through early afternoon. Deeper moisture is somewhat limited and the models are in decent agreement that the instability will remain pretty marginal along and ahead of the front through the day. As a result, will continue to just go with likely showers with a slight chance of some embedded thunderstorms along/just ahead of the front. The wind fields are fairly strong so if we are able to destabilize enough, suppose a very low end severe threat would not be out of the question across our far east. As the cold front moves through and we start to get into some CAA, expect to see some non diurnal temperatures, especially across the east where the highs should occur fairly early in the day. A tightening pressure gradient will also lead to breezy conditions through the day with wind gusts in the 30-40 mph range possible. A drier and cooler airmass will then filter into the area behind the front Sunday night. Lows Sunday night will be in the low to mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... For Monday, a cold front pushed by an upper trough will be east of the area. An expansive area of high pressure following the front will stretch across most of the CONUS under a confluent zonal flow aloft. High pressure and a dry airmass are then forecast to remain over the region through the end of the long term. Current model projections suggest no precipitation in a regime of subsidence and low humidity, with rain chances close to zero through Saturday. Temperatures will be below normal to start due to cold advection on a northerly flow behind the front, with highs reaching the upper 50s on Monday. Patchy frost will be possible Monday night when lows will fall into the 30s under clear and calm conditions, especially in eastern locations. A gradual warming trend under increasing geopotential heights and a southerly low level flow will allow highs to reach the low to mid 70s by late next week, about 10 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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The passage of a cold front today will be the main focus for impacts to aviation. This front will bring periods of gusty winds this afternoon (up to 30-35 knots) along with a wind shift from the SSW to the WNW in the 16Z-20Z time frame. This front is likely to bring showers to the area, along with a period of MVFR ceilings for all TAF sites. Going into the evening hours, ceilings should lift to VFR, and winds will diminish as they settle in to a NNW direction. Some low level wind shear is also possible this morning. There is also a very low probability of thunder at the TAF sites as the cold front moves through, and this is too low to include in the forecasts. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...Hatzos

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