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304
FXUS61 KILN 231950
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
350 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will drop southeast across the area this evening
and will interact with the moisture from the remnants of
Tropical Storm Cindy. This will produce periods of heavy rain
this afternoon into tonight. Behind the system, temperatures
will drop below normal for the weekend and into early next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Showers and thunderstorms continue across the central parts of
the CWA this afternoon with a surface cold front currently
located near Fort Wayne, IN. Tropical Depression Cindy was
centered over western Kentucky and is forecasted to eject
northeast this evening. Latest runs of the ARW, NMM have the
center of Cindy tracking just south of Lewis county KY. The
latest 18z KILN forecast sounding also showed a PWAT of 2.22".
Even though this does not break the daily record it is near the
max value.

Showers and thunderstorms will likely continue and slowly sag
southwards this afternoon. This is in part to the extremely high
moisture and the approaching RRQ from the upper level trough
axis. Due to the mentioned above have continued the Flash Flood
Watch as is for the entire area. It should also be noted that
across our southwestern zones rain has yet to occur allowing the
atmosphere to destabilize. ML Cape values of 1000 J/kg with
effective shear of ~40kts will allow for some storms to become
severe. Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be the
primary threat.

Finally the upper level trough axis will push directly
overhead. As this occurs a surface cold front will move through
the area around 10pm. The surface cold front will then clear the
area early Saturday morning. Right behind the cold front winds
will pickup briefly as strong CAA moves in.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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During the day Saturday surface high pressure over the midwest
will slowly nudge into the area with PWATs plummeting from 2.22"
to less than 0.80" by Saturday evening. During the day Saturday
some high res models are indicating some pop up showers possible
but looking at forecast soundings shows that there will likely
not be enough moisture for this. Overall have kept precipitation
out of the forecast for Saturday. High temperatures Saturday
will be in the mid to upper 70s with dewpoints falling off into
the upper 50s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Mean mid level trof over the Great Lakes with surface high pressure
nosing into the Ohio Valley this weekend. A few showers or
thunderstorms will be possible across the north during the afternoon
Sunday. Cool temperatures look to be 5 to 10 degrees below normal
with highs on Sunday from the lower 70s north to the upper 70s far
south.

Mean trof becomes more amplified over the area, so a contd threat of
showers or thunderstorms will be continued Monday. Cool temperatures
to continue with Mondays highs expected to be in the lower 70s.

Warm front to develop over the Great Lakes with southerly flow
increasing. Temperatures will continue to moderate with highs
Thursday in the lower and middle 80s.

The ECMWF and Canadian solns bringing a progressive system through
the Great Lakes Thursday, while the GFS holds off pcpn.  With an
increase in moisture have allowed for a slight chance of a
thunderstorm but confidence is not high in this chance.

Models solns sharpen up mid level trof over the eastern Great Lakes
which may lead to a few showers or thunderstorms over the
northeastern counties. Rather cool readings to continue Tuesday
with highs generally in the mid 70s.

Surface high pressure slide east with southerly low level developing
on its back side at midweek. Expect dry conditions with a warming
trend. Temperatures will be closer to normal with highs on Wednesday
in the lower 80s.

Westerly flow aloft with surface wave tracking through the northern
Great Lakes. This will allow an associated surface front to drop
south into the southern Great Lakes and stall out. Have limited
pops to chance category with the highest pops northwest Thursday. On
the warm side of this system, expect temperatures to reach highs  in
the lower and middle 80s Thursday.

Another progressive wave and associated frontal boundary expected to
approach from the west increasing thunderstorm chances Friday into
Friday night. Model solution strength and timing differences exist
regarding this system. Due to this spread, uncertainty
increases.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A band of showers with some embedded thunder are currently
located along a KDAY to KCMH line. A secondary batch of showers
have formed just to the south with coverage expected to continue
into the afternoon. This secondary batch has had a little more
instability to work with and therefore some gusty winds will be
possible. A surface cold front was also currently located in
northwestern Indiana. Tropical Depression Cindy will also
continue to push northeast and bring a second batch of rain
which should be mainly south of the TAF sites.

During the day today most of the TAF sites will be MVFR with
restrictions to VLIFR in heavier cells. Later this evening the
front will slowly sag southeast pushing the rain southeast with
it.

Overnight tonight skies will slowly clear from the northwest as
the cold front pushes through. Guidance is hinting at some
lower visbilities Saturday morning as skies clear, but with
dropping dewpoints have decided to leave this mention out.
Saturday afternoon weak CAA overhead and ~20kt low level jet
will allow for some wind gusts in the TAFs. The GFS and NAM
forecast soundings are indicating around 20kts possible via
momentum transfer.

OUTLOOK...Intermittent MVFR ceilings possible Saturday through
Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ042>046-
     051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Saturday for KYZ089>100.
IN...Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Saturday for INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.
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&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haines
NEAR TERM...Haines
SHORT TERM...Haines
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Haines