Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 251741 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1241 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 850 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAKEN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK CAA CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TO BECOME MORE NEUTRAL THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE FAIRLY SOLID SC DECK CURRENTLY IN PLACE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR...TO WORK SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES RANGING FROM MOSTLY SUNNY SOUTHEAST TO CLOUDY NORTHWEST. WITH CLOUDS AND SOME WEAK CAA...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS IT TRAVERSES THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN GET OVERPOWERED IN BETWEEN TWO COMPETING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE EAST COAST STORM AND A STRONG LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE TWO WILL PUT THE REGION INTO A HOLDING PATTERN UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MUSCLES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A GENERALLY COOL AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED IN BEHIND THIS UPPER TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW SKIRT THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR AT LEAST A MORE FAVORABLE AIRMASS FOR PASSING FLURRIES. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING SOME LIGHT QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW PROBABILITY AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE. MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT. SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR 40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE. SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MVFR DECK EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA AND INTO OHIO HAS BEEN WORKING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY WHILE THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF IT HAS BECOME MORE DIURNAL LOOKING ON SATELLITE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH THE WEAKENING 850 MB TROUGH AXIS WITH SOME OF THE DIURNAL CLOUDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY DISSIPATING AS WE GET INTO THIS EVENING. THE BIG QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAST/IF THE WESTERN EDGE WILL ERODE AWAY LATER TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC. AS USUAL...THE NAM IS MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE GFS. HAVE ERRED ON THE MORE PESSIMISTIC SIDE AND HUNG ON TO SOME MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW WITH THIS GIVEN THE DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...JGL

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