Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 182328 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 728 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. LOWS WILL BE JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS FLATTEN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS VEERING DURING THE PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL BUT COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS. HOWEVER SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PREDOMINANT. AND EVEN AT THAT NOT SURE THAT IT WILL BE MORE THAN SCATTERED ACTIVITY. SEEING LITTLE REASON TO VARY MUCH FROM MOS TEMPERATURE ENVELOPE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH PRIMARILY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND TAPERING OFF MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE NAM IS THE OUTLIER WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND DISREGARDED THIS SOLUTION AND WENT TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS OF THE FASTER SOLUTION. WITH PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OF PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH KEPT LIKELY PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM TIME PERIOD. WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM ON THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT UNDER SUBSIDENCE. CALM CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOG TO FORM AT LUK...WHILE BR IS EXPECTED AT ILN. REST OF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE OUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST UNDER 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...CONIGLIO

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