Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 120607 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 107 AM EST Tue Dec 12 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level disturbance will affect the area today. Another low pressure system will pass across the region Wednesday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... The cold front has moved east of the forecast area. West winds are increasing and becoming gusty with further gradual strengthening and veer through the night. Temperatures were running several degrees warmer than forecast. The trend still looks good, but given the starting point, have bumped up temperatures. As the short wave over the western Great Lakes drops into the region late tonight, the precipitation potential will be on the increase. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... The main threat on Tuesday will be the potential for the aforementioned lake effect snow band or "streamer" to affect parts of our area. The high resolution models have been consistent on bringing this band into our region. All the parameters are there for the possibility of bursts of heavy snow, windy conditions, and temperatures slowly dropping through the 20s. Snow squall potential could result in hazardous driving conditions as motorists may encounter clear conditions followed by near whiteout conditions. As a result, the SPS will continue into Tuesday for the parts of the northern areas, including northern metro Cincy, Dayton metro, Columbus metro (Columbus and points south and west), and west central Ohio. The "streamer" band is expected to pivot northeast through the day as the low level flow backs, so that will keep accumulations from getting out of hand in any one location. Most locations in the band will receive 1 to 2 inches, but west central Ohio may see local amounts around 3 inches. Outside of the band, some scattered snow showers or flurries are forecast, but amounts will be a half inch or less. Again, it will be windy with sustained northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts, especially in the convective band, between 30 and 40 mph. Temperatures will drop into the upper teens northwest and the lower 20s southeast by evening. For Tuesday night, large mid level trough will move east. As this occurs, winds will decrease at the surface and aloft as well as back some from Lake Michigan. This process will allow the band to weaken and break away to the northwest from our region overnight. In fact, a surface ridge will build into our region by Wednesday morning. Skies will clear in the south and become partly cloudy in the north. Lows will generally drop into the 10 to 15 degree range. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Any lake effect snows will be ending early Wednesday with gradual improvement in the morning. Later in the day, a surface low will track towards the region and chances for snow will increase later in the day along the I-70 corridor between Dayton and Columbus, spreading southward towards the Ohio River in the evening, and then lifting northeastward overnight as the surface low crosses the region. Given the cloud cover and northwest flow on Wednesday, this should be the coolest day of the period with readings remaining in the 20s to lower 30s. Continued northwest flow on Thursday will see readings range from the upper 20s in the north to the upper 30s in Kentucky. Temperatures will remain in the 30s on Friday and warm into the 40s on Saturday as a warm front develops and lifts north of the area. Warmer temperatures are expected through the weekend. A surface low will track into the region Sunday or Sunday night. This is a divergent point in the extended models with timing and strength differences, as well as the upper level trough that will be driving its evolution. As of this moment, it appears that the European is an outlier. Have an increased chance for rain on Sunday, possibly starting as a mix of rain and snow and likely changing to snow on the back side Sunday overnight. The airmass behind the low pressure system on the weekend is coming from the west and not expected to be as cold as if the region were in strong northwest flow. Surface flow remains west to southwest as a brief ridge pushes into the area early Monday and return flow sets up behind it. Kept with the model blend given the increased potential for large discrepancies beyond day 5, and a pretty good consensus in the forecast through this time. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MVFR ceilings below 2000 ft just west of the region will spread across the terminals early in the TAF period. West winds will strengthen and be gusty while veering slightly. Snow showers will spread across the region with a well defined band expected to stream off of Lake Michigan. The greatest impacts from this are expected from KDAY to KILN. Occasional IFR visibilities are likely in this band. The snow band will pivot northeast through the day and it is expected to impact the Columbus terminals late in the day. After the initial drop early, ceilings are expected to improve to above 2000 ft in the morning with further improvement to VFR later in the day. Clouds will start to scatter from the southwest late in the period. In addition, the west northwest winds will slowly diminish around 00Z with gusts eventually subsiding. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities along with wind gusts to 25 kt possible Wednesday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman/Sites NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...

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