Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 161847 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 247 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will move southeast across the area tonight, leading to a chance for a few showers. Behind the front, a colder airmass will settle into the Ohio Valley for the start of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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An embedded mid level short will rotate through a broader upper level trough dropping down into the Great Lakes region overnight. This will help push a cold front southeast across our region tonight. Moisture is fairly limited, but we will still likely see a narrow axis of light rain showers shift down across the area tonight along and ahead of the front, with the highest pops across northeast portions of our area. Lows tonight will range from the mid 30s northwest to the lower 40s in the southeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Weak cyclonic flow will persist through the day on Sunday along with some continued weak CAA. This will lead to skies becoming partly to mostly cloudy from the north from late morning and through the afternoon. Highs will range from the lower 40s northwest to the lower 50s in the southeast. A secondary mid level short wave will drop down the back side of the upper level trough Sunday night and approach our region late. Any pcpn associated with this should remain off to our northwest but we may start to see some increase in clouds from the northwest late. Lows Sunday night will be in the low to mid 30s.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Shortwave trough axis slides through the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Monday, maintaining the chances for snow showers throughout the day and into the evening. Forecast soundings show saturation well within the DGZ so even if temperatures warm into the upper 30s and lower 40s, all precipitation will be snow and/or graupel. On Tuesday, a weak low pressure slides through the Great Lakes. This provides strong southwest winds with wind gusts between 25 and 35 mph Tuesday afternoon. The low pressure slips northeast of the area Tuesday night with no precipitation expected with the cold front. Mid and upper level flow remains northwesterly Wednesday and Thursday keeping temperatures closer to normal as cooler air feeds in from the north. The overall pattern becomes more zonal to wrap up the long term period, but a closed low moving into the lower Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic may provide the next chance of precipitation. Ensemble probabilities continue to focus the greatest chances across the South and Gulf Coast. Since the Ohio Valley is on the northern fringe, it is possible that additional trends southward, like the 00Z ECMWF deterministic run, won`t lead to a drier forecast in the coming days.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A cold front will move southeast across the region tonight. Breezy southwest winds will persist ahead of the front this afternoon into this evening with gusts in the 25 to 35 knot range possible. Scattered light rain showers associated with the front will affect mainly the central Ohio TAF sites for a couple hour period tonight. As the front moves through, winds will become west to northwest overnight with gusts to around 20 knots possible. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible on Monday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...McGinnis AVIATION...JGL

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