Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 210615 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 215 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING RAIN TO THE AREA. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT. AREA OF BKN CI WILL MOVE E OF THE FA IN A COUPLE OF HOURS LEAVING JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS. ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. DIDNT ADJUST PREVIOUS LOWS AS THEY STILL LOOK GOOD. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...EXCEPT E OF CMH WHERE MID 40S ARE EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... ON MONDAY...THE ILN CWA WILL REMAIN OUT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT...IN A REGIME OF SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN INCREASING DURING THE DAY...WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE BUILDING IN TO SUPPORT CUMULUS AS WELL AS HIGHER CLOUDS. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES...WITH THE CHANGE IN FLOW SUPPORTING VALUES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN SUNDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE WELL-MIXED AGAIN...SO A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 15-20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP NEAR THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY...AND THE SPC WRF-NMM IS NOW CLOSE ENOUGH IN RANGE TO DEPICT SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON (EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN FRONTAL FORCING WILL NOT YET HAVE ARRIVED). SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE EXTENDED INTO THE AREA A LITTLE EARLIER THAN WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. BY MONDAY EVENING...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN ITS APPROACH...BUT MOST OF THE FORECAST PRECIPITATION EXISTS WELL AHEAD OF IT (MORE CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH FORCING SLIGHTLY ALOFT). PERHAPS BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF FORCING DEFINITION IN THE LOW-LEVELS...AND A MOISTURE FEED OF QUESTIONABLE QUALITY...IT IS NOT SURPRISING THAT QPF DEPICTIONS FOR THIS MINOR EVENT ARE SPOTTY AND PATCHY (AND NOT AT ALL CONSISTENT FROM MODEL TO MODEL). THOUGH RAIN IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE ENTIRE CWA AT SOME POINT IN A 12-TO-18 HOUR PERIOD...THESE TIMING AND PLACEMENT CONCERNS PRECLUDE THE INCLUSION OF CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PRECIPITATION FORECASTS ARE GENERALLY AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR LESS...AND WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY...NO HWO-WORTHY HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK (THOUGH SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE IN THE WEAK INSTABILITY). MODELS DO GENERALLY HAVE A GOOD TIMING AGREEMENT ON THE DEPARTURE OF THE MOISTURE AS THE FRONT PASSES...WITH THE CWA APPEARING TO BE COMPLETELY DRY BY 18Z. THE CHANGING AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO COOLER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THOUGH SOME RECOVERY IN THE SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SKIES CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT COLD ADVECTION ON NNW FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MID 30S POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN CWA. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HAVE LEANED MORE WITH WPC/S ADVICE WHICH IS TO USE A BLEND OF THEIR GUIDANCE...THE LATEST GFS AND DISCOUNT THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH PUSHES A MORE ENERGETIC SFC CYCLONE THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ON WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...NEXT COLD FRONT TO AFFECT OUR REGION IS STILL POISED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT. TIMING KEEPS CHANGING SOME IN TERMS OF PCPN ARRIVAL FROM RUN TO RUN. THERE LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH DYNAMICS...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACRS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. BEFORE HAND...PCPN WILL ARRIVE IN THE FAR WRN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S AND MID 70S ON THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY...FRONT WILL MOVE EAST...AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL DRY OUT. CAA WILL BE BEGINNING ON FRIDAY BUT WILL BE DELAYED SOME. SO...UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NW TO THE MID 70S FAR SOUTHEAST. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A QUITE LARGE UPR LVL CLOSED LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY PCPN WILL REMAIN NEAR THE LAKES THEMSELVES. SO...SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A COOLING TREND EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGHS DROP TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR LATE APRIL. ON SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING UPR LVL CLOSED LOW. HIGHS WILL REMAIN COOL FOR LATE APRIL. && .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD EXPECT FOR THE LONGER KCVG TAF. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME CU WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TAF SITES MONDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES BY TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THE CHANCE IS MINIMAL AND THEREFORE DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE A VCSH MENTION IN AT THE END OF THE KLUK...KDAY...AND KILN TAFS. KCMH AND KLCK WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING IN AFTER THE TAF PERIOD. HAVE VCSH AND THEN SHRA MOVING INTO THE LONGER KCVG TAF. LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS WELL BY THE END OF THE LONGER KCVG TAF. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HATZOS NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...HATZOS LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...NOVAK

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