Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 140821 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 421 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Weak high pressure is forecast to keep mainly dry weather over the region today through Tuesday. Low pressure and associated fronts will bring the threat for showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday and continuing Thursday. High pressure and drier air are expected to return on Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Weak high pressure centered to the east should keep dry weather across most locations. However, a few showers developing near weak disturbances and a boundary may brush counties along and south of the Ohio River. Kept chance to slight chance pops for measurable precip, keeping in mind that light radar returns may also indicate the occurrence of sprinkles and virga from mid level clouds. Showers may exhibit a diminishing trend this afternoon as the disturbances work east. Greater than expected cloud cover necessitated adjustment to mostly cloudy in latest update. Modest warm advection on a weak southerly flow should still allow temperatures to reach the lower 80s this afternoon even under mostly cloudy skies.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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Expect mainly dry weather tonight through Tuesday as disturbances move east leaving a weak ridge of high pressure, though a slight chance for showers will persist tonight in far southeast counties. Models indicate low level moisture convergence under an inversion late tonight to early Tuesday, so added patchy fog to forecast. Expect partly to mostly sunny skies Tuesday once morning fog burns off, helping temperatures reach the middle 80s Tuesday afternoon.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Zonal flow pattern with surface ridge sliding across the Great Lakes Tuesday to the east by Wednesday. Southerly low level return flow will allow an increase in moisture Wednesday ahead of a warm front. Best forcing and instability to remain to our west Wednesday, so will only mention chance pops west with slight chance pops east Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will warm a little above normal, with highs in the mid and upper 80s. Weak surface wave to track through the Great Lakes late in the week with associated surface cold front moving through ILN/s FA Friday. Moderate instability expected to develop in the warm sector Thursday. Will continue to show a period of likely pops Thursday. Temperatures to continue above normal with highs Thursday generally in the middle 80s. With the passage of the surface cold front chances for precipitation will diminish Friday. Temperatures looks closer to normal with highs on Friday in the lower and middle 80s. Model solutions continue to show a good spread in the zonal flow pattern. Therefore, uncertainty in the forecast increases next weekend. ECMWF shows more amplification with northwesterly flow and surface high pressure providing dry weather next weekend. GFS brings a shortwave and associated pcpn across the area Saturday night into Sunday. Have limited any pops to just a slight chance due to such a spread in solutions. Temperatures continue closer to normal with highs Sat/Sun in the lower and middle 80s.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR is forecast to continue through the first part of the period as high pressure moves east. Scattered showers developing near a boundary to the south will probably not reach TAF sites today. Cloud cover is expected to feature high based cumulus forming under mid and high clouds. Winds from the south should stay under 10 knots. Late in the forecast, models show increasing humidity under a rather strong low level inversion. This may produce BR that will reduce visibilities to MVFR, along with scattered low clouds. Models indicate that southern sites may be hit harder by the lowered visibilities. OUTLOOK...Fog possible Tuesday morning. Thunderstorms possible Wednesday night into Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Coniglio

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