Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 050106 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 906 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL WEAKEN. THIS WILL BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS A RESULT VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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CONVECTION REMAINS MOST ACTIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A GENERAL DECREASE IN ACTIVITY. BUT IT MAY BE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED LOWS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR RAIN COOLED AIRMASS PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... LINGERING UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS LEFT OVER FROM UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD RESULT IN SOME MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH WITH LESS COVERAGE THAN FRIDAY. THEREAFTER RIDGING SHOULD STRENGTHEN ENOUGH TO CAP OFF ATMOSPHERE. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON HIGHS. HAVE GONE JUST A SHADE LOWER THAN MOS FOR LOWS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY AND INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY. A SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE FA. WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE LOWER 80S. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TIME FRAME. WITHOUT A LOT OF CONTINUITY DECIDED TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER HOWEVER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS DURG THE AFTN ACRS OHIO...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME PATCHY MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR BR/FG RESTRICTIONS LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KLUK. SAME AIR MASS IN PLACE ON SATURDAY...SO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURG THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS SATURDAY...SO HAVE LIMITED MENTION TO VCTS. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...JGL/AR

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