Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 221641 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1141 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH LATE TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE INDIANA-OHIO STATE LINE BEFORE STALLING LATE TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THIS FRONT AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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FIRST UPDATED RAISED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND HAD GENERALLY OVERCAST SKY CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. THIS NEXT UPDATE HAD A LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER - ESPECIALLY EASTERN 2/3 OF CWA AND THEREFORE BUMPED UP TEMPS A BIT MORE. WAS GOING TO LOWER THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN OHIO THIS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT OPTED TO KEEP THE LOW CHANCE THAT WAS IN THE FORECAST AS SOME MODELS WERE CONTINUING TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE THREAT FOR A SPRINKLE OR PASSING SHOWER THROUGH EARLY EVENING ONLY EXISTS OVER INDIANA COUNTIES AT THIS TIME.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT LIFTS THROUGH. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM BUT THAT CHANCE LOOKS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP OFF SOME IN THE EVENING BUT THEN READINGS WILL BE STEADY OR RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING BUT THEN THE FORCING BECOMES WEAK. SO THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A COMPLETE LULL IN ACTIVITY POSSIBLE. STAYED NEAR MODEL CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE IF ANY CONVERGENCE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE INDIANA-OHIO LINE LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE STALLING. THIS BOUNDARY BECOMES IMPORTANT BECAUSE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST ALONG IT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE 00Z NAM WAS AN OUTLIER IN THIS REGARD AND SEEMS UNLIKELY TO VERIFY AT THIS POINT. AS FORCING INCREASES TUESDAY NIGHT SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. AGAIN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE LOW BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECOMES QUITE A CHALLENGE WITH A WIDE VARIETY OF POSSIBILITIES OFFERED BY BOTH MODELS AND MOS. SEEMS MOST LIKELY THAT IT WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD TUESDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL SET UP. HAVE USED A BLEND OF SREF AND ECMWF 2 METER TEMPERATURES WHICH ENDS UP FALLING BETWEEN GFS MOS AND PARALLEL GFS MOS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH RISE IN READINGS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE LOW PASSES AND TEMPERATURES START FALLING OFF. SYSTEM GETS PRETTY DYNAMIC SO THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... APPEARS THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL STILL BE SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND AS COLDER AIR GETS WRAPPED IN THIS WILL TRANSITION FROM RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY MUCH ONCE THE CHANGE OVER TAKES PLACE PLUS THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL STAY AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. IT WILL BE BREEZY/BRISK WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN LATE THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR A DAY. 00Z GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE SLOWER BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THUS CONTINUED WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN SUNDAY WITH COLD CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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PRECIP WILL START IN THE 0-6Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 12Z. NAM MODEL IS NOTORIOUSLY DRY AFTER AN INITIAL WAVE THIS EVENING. WILL OPT TO KEEP THE PREVAILING SHOWERS THAT ARE IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT BUT TRY TO HEDGE SLIGHTLY TO THE DRIER SOLUTION WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE REGIONAL CANADIAN MODEL. THE NEWD EJECTING INITIAL LOBE OF RAIN WITH THE WEAKENING SFC LOW IN WI WILL OCCUR WHERE WINDS ARE STILL SE. THE SW-NE BAND OF RAIN INDICATED OVER I-71 CORRIDOR EARLY TUESDAY APPEARS OFF FOR SOME REASON. THINK THAT YOU WOULD WANT MORE STREAMWISE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE TO WRING OUT RAIN IN THIS AREA FOR THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME THAT IS BEING PROGGED BY THE GFS AND EURO AND TO A LESSER EXTEND HEMISPHERIC CANADIAN MODEL. EVEN IF POPS DO HOLD OFF...CIGS SHOULD STILL STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF DROPPING TO MVFR CATEGORY TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE THRU THURS AND COULD DROP TO IFR AT TIMES. WINDS WILL PICK UP WED INTO THURS.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...FRANKS

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