Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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920 FXUS61 KILN 142141 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 441 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING AS FLOW TURNS SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TUESDAY AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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ACCUMULATING SNOW IS OVERSPREADING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE WORST OF THE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A HALF INCH OR SO POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR GETS PULLED INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. THE WARM ADVECTION WILL HELP TO LIMIT HEAVIER PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY RISE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 THIS EVENING...TO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 BY DAYBREAK. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HEAVIEST AT THE ONSET OF THE SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATER THIS EVENING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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MID 20S TO NEAR FREEZING TEMPS AT DAYBREAK WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND THE WARM AIR WILL INHIBIT TURBULENT MIXING FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY...LIMITING PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. ANY LINGERING SNOW MAY MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO RAIN...POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN BEFORE IT ALL CHANGES TO PLAIN RAIN BY THE AFTERNOON. THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL SEE COLDER AIR MIX IN WITH THE RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND COULD SEE A WINTERY MIX OF RAIN FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW. THIS IS DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING E THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD HELP SHUNT ANY PRECIP EAST TUESDAY MORNING AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CUT OFF A CIRCULATION IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AS IT TAKES AIM ON NORTHERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY. THE SURFACE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL BE SLIGHTLY OFFSET TO THE NORTH AND SKIM THE OHIO RIVER. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THESE CLIPPER SYSTEMS ARE TYPICALLY ALL SNOW...BUT THICKNESSES START OUT WARM AND THE BULK OF PRECIP TUESDAY WILL LIKELY FALL AS RAIN UNTIL THE CORE OF THE TROUGH/CIRCULATION CROSSES TUESDAY EVENING...CHANGING RAIN BACK TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX. MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE PRECIPITATION FOR TUESDAY BUT THERE IS A LARGER VARIANCE THAN WOULD BE EXPECTED...LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES IN THE FORECAST. WITH DAYTIME INSOLATION AND THE FACT THAT TEMPERATURES START OFF SOMEWHAT WARM TUESDAY...I OPTED TO PUT MORE RAIN IN THE FORECAST.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA IN THE WAKE OF A FAST MOVING SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL LINGER ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE EASTERN CWFA. SHOULD ONLY SEE ABOUT A 5 DEGREE RISE FROM MORNING LOWS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTH. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MODIFIED COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN OUR AREA. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE LATEST ECMWF WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST SOLUTION. THIS RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. A WARM UP IS IN THE OFFING AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. MID LEVEL TROUGH OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH A WARM FRONT WILL PRECEDE THIS SYSTEM WITH WAA CLOUDS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SOME EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...THEN SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP NICELY FOR FEBRUARY WITH ALL LOCATIONS REACHING THE 50S. SOME LOWER 60S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. DEEP MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE LACKING WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SO DESPITE SOME APPRECIABLE FORCING...WILL ONLY KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE BIT OF COOLING BUT STILL MILD. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH. MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE ALLOWED FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR NOW ON SUNDAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD...BEFORE ACCUMULATING SNOW MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CEILINGS WILL ALSO LIKELY DROP TO THE MVFR RANGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ONCE THE MAIN ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS COME TO AN END...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MUCH LIGHTER. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR EITHER VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. SINCE AT LEAST SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED...AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AVIATION...IT WAS INCLUDED AS THE MAIN WEATHER TYPE IN THE TAFS. FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING AT SOME POINT MONDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS OF HOW MUCH FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPS...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR (AND PROBABLY LIFR) CEILINGS DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. FOR THE REST OF MONDAY...IT APPEARS THAT RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...THOUGH HOW MUCH REACHES THE TAF SITES IS STILL UNCERTAIN. CEILINGS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO LIFT...AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ063>065- 070>074-077>082-088. KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ089>100. IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ066- 073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...HATZOS

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