-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 252331
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
731 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY AS
WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA
OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THE
DRY AIR IN PLACE HOWEVER HAVE LIMITED THE PRECIPITATION MENTION TO
SPRINKLES FOR THE NEAR TERM TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE THE
WEAK SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA...EXPECT SKIES TO
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT EAST OF COLUMBUS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA ON SUNDAY HOWEVER EXPECT THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE FA
TO REMAIN DRY. WITH THE WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY ON MONDAY
EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE FA. THERE IS ONLY LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE LIMITED THUNDER MENTION TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
FA. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
TIME FRAME.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALTHOUGH A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...THERE WILL BE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A NOT YET CAPPED ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. SO
THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
IN THE WARM SECTOR.

THEREAFTER RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHICH WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM COULD START TO GET CLOSE ENOUGH BY SATURDAY TO
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES. BUT PROBABILITY LOOKS RATHER LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS SOUTH OF A KDAY...KILN LINE THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHETHER ANY OF THESE SHOWERS WILL CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION
IN VSBYS DUE TO THEIR LIGHT NATURE. THEREFORE AM FORECASTING VCSH
FOR THE INITIAL TAF ISSUANCE AND WILL ADD TEMPOS AT A LATER
AMENDMENT IF IT BECOMES APPARENT SHOWERS WILL BECOME HEAVIER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. BKN TO OVC MID DECK WILL PERSIST ACROSS THESE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. NORTH OF THE KDAY/KILN
LINE...SKIES WILL VARY WITH A MIX OF BKN TO SCT MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
WITH NO SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS CLOSER TO 00Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER
10 KT THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...LATTO