Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 251048
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
648 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017
A southerly flow ahead of low pressure will provide warm
temperatures and mainly dry weather today. Showers and a few
thunderstorms will develop tonight through Sunday when the low is
forecast to travel to the Western Great Lakes. Weak high pressure
Sunday night into Monday will be followed by low pressure and more
showers late Monday into Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A vertically stacked low pressure system will move slowly to
Missouri today. Moisture will increase gradually in the
southerly flow ahead of the low, producing mainly mid and high
clouds. However, a few showers and thunderstorms may develop
primarily over western counties this afternoon in a modestly
unstable regime containing under 200 J/KG CAPE. Have backed off
PoPs from previous forecasts due to slower progression of the
High temperatures in the low to mid 70s will be close to 20
degrees above normal.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Low pressure system will be lifting from Missouri to Chicago
tonight through Sunday. Even though the system will be weakening
as it moves into a broad upper ridge, a large swath of moisture
and lift ahead of the low will impact the ILN area. Showers will
become widespread tonight through Sunday, and thunderstorms
will also be possible. Severe weather threat appears to be
limited by marginal CAPE of around 500 J/KG.
High temperatures will be reduced by clouds and precip, with
highs in the 60s expected.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An active weather pattern for the upcoming week. Initial upper level
and surface low to lift northeast across the Great Lakes Sunday
night. Precipitation to come to a temporary end Sunday night into
Monday, as ridging builds in ahead of next upper level trof.
Monday starts out dry early with pcpn overspreading the region, as
next shortwave and surface low tracks northeast from the southern
plains into the Great Lakes Monday night. In the warm moist
environment temperatures on Monday to rise to highs from the upper
60s north to the lower 70s south.
As this system pushes off to the east the pcpn to end Tuesday, as
surface high begins to builds into the Great Lakes. Temperatures
will remain above normal, with Tuesday`s highs ranging from the
lower 60s north to the upper 60s south.
Surface high to slide east across the Great Lakes Wednesday. This
will provide dry weather with temperatures closer to normal. Highs
on Wednesday to range from the upper 50s northwest to the mid 60s
Model solutions diverge on handling late week weather system. GFS
showing an open wave in split flow pattern, while the more
consistent ECMWF and Canadian solutions show a closed low. Will
trend the forecast toward the ECMWF/Canadian. Will bring chance pops
in Thursday and increase these pops to likely Thursday night into
Friday, as the upper low and associated surface low lift northeast
from the mid MS Vly into the Great Lakes. As instby increases will
include a chance of thunder Friday afternoon into Friday evening.
Highs Thursday and Friday generally 60 to 65.
Precipitation is expected to end early Saturday as weak high pressure
builds into the region.
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --VFR will continue through much of the forecast period. Moisture
will increase on a southerly flow ahead of low pressure
centered far to the west. This will produce mid and high clouds
As the low moves closer, showers will enter the picture
starting around 23z at CVG, with precip then pushing northeast
across the rest of TAF sites. Ceilings and visibilities will
eventually lower by the end of the forecast as the boundary
layer approaches saturation. CVG and LUK may see MVFR by the end
of the period.
South winds are expected to gust around 20 knots this afternoon at
DAY and ILN. Rest of sites should see about 10 knots sustained.
Winds will back to southeast as the low center lifts toward the
Western Great Lakes.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible late
Monday into Tuesday morning.
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