Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 221343 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 943 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MCS CONTINUES IN ITS WEAKENING PHASE. ECHOES ARE SLOWLY WEAKENING WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIGHTNING LEFT. IN ADDITION SOUTHWARD PROGRESS HAS HALTED. AT THIS POINT EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE TO DECAY IN PLACE. APPEARS THAT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL NOT BE EXCESSIVE. BUT WITH A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN FROM EARLIER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EAST CENTRAL INDIANA AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO. QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHAT WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THAT RECOVERY OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE LIMITED WHERE MCS IMPACTED THIS MORNING. THERE IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND WHERE THIS SETS UP COULD BE A PRIME FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP HIGHER CHANCE POPS WHERE PRECIPITATION DID NOT FALL AND THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. SO EXPECT NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND FAR SOUTHERN OHIO ALONG WITH CENTRAL OHIO TO HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS. WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW AND FURTHER EVALUATE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THAT AREA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. OPTED TO BUMP DOWN HIGHS EXCEPT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE MODIFICATION FROM MCS WILL BE LIMITED AT MOST.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... STORMS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING THIS EVENING AS COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS DROPS SE THRU ILNS FA AROUND THE NE PERIPHERY OF MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MS VLY. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHARPENING UP THE RIDGE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE PCPN TO PUSH SOUTH OF ILNS FA TONIGHT. IN MUGGY AIRMASS LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NE TO THE LOWER 70S SW. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUE TO BUILD A LTL EAST SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 100 ON SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SUNDAY WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH ILN/S AREA STILL ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH...A LOW POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY. WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100 AGAIN IN THE SW. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAT FOR SUNDAY IN HWO. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY...BETTER INSTABILITIES WILL WORK MORE EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA TOO. HOWEVER...WITH WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS AND A CONTINUED LACK OF FORCING...THINK ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ISOLATED ENOUGH TO LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT THROUGH MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY PUSHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT DOWN TOWARD OUR AREA LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...BEFORE A POSSIBLE COOL DOWN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT WAVE ENERGY ON A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CARRYING PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE MORNING. AFTER A LULL DURING EARLY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE...MORE CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TONIGHT WHEN MODELS SHOW SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE TYPICAL WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS HUMID AND UNSETTLED REGIME. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS LATE IN THE PERIOD IF INTENSE CONVECTION IMPACTS TAF SITES. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035- 042>044-051>053-060>062-070-071. KY...NONE. IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...CONIGLIO

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.