-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 171441
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1041 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SLOWLY TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE SOUTH...A
FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ON MONDAY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL LINGER ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER BOUNDARY
SWINGS THROUGH FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
RADAR ECHOES HAVE DIMINISHED...AND A DRY FORECAST WILL BE
MAINTAINED FOR JUST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
INSTABILITY IS ALREADY GROWING ACROSS THE CWA. IN
FACT...INSTABILITY FORECASTS NOW APPEAR TO SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED IN THE SOUTHERN CWA...UP TO
1500-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THERE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY FEATURES
TO HELP PROVIDE LIFT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SUGGESTING THAT
ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS BY AFTERNOON WILL BE DISORGANIZED AND
PROBABLY RATHER ISOLATED.

ASIDE FROM THE SOUTHERN CWA...WHICH HAS BEEN SUNNY FOR MOST OF THE
MORNING...A STRATUS DECK HAS HELD IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. THIS REQUIRED AN INCREASE IN SKY GRIDS FOR THE SHORT
TERM...AS WELL AS A DROP IN MAX TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES. THE
STRATUS DOES SEEM TO BE ERODING...BUT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
ALSO FILL IN THE GAPS A BIT BY AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO POP UP HERE AND THERE AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAG SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. THE FRONT
WILL STALL AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS KY AND SRN OH AS CAPES CLIMB OVER 1000 J/KG IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO REAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
TODAY...SO THINGS WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE HEATING OF THE DAY. PUT
LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF THE FA. WENT AHEAD AND
KEPT THE REST OF THE FA DRY TODAY.

A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TODAY AS COMPARED TO SUNDAY. SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER...WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE LOWER
AND MID 80S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DIRTY PATTERN CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT AS WEAK EMBEDDED H5 S/W MOVE
THROUGH THE FAST FLOW AND INTERACT WITH THE FNT THAT IS STALLED
AROUND THE OHIO RIVER AND A SECONDARY FRONT THAT IS DROPPING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. SO KEPT 20 TO 30 POPS ACROSS THE REGION
FOR TONIGHT. MODELS DROP A MORE SUBSTANTIAL S/W THRU THE FLOW TUE
INTO TUE NIGHT. INCREASED POPS ON TUE BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE.
THOUGHT ABOUT GOING LIKELY...BUT KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N ON WEDNESDAY.

WENT A LITTLE COOLER FOR HIGHS ON TUE...DUE TO THE INCREASED PCPN
AND CLOUD COVER. LIMITED THE HIGHS TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
DESPITE MORE SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY...COOLER AIR WORKING IN THE
FROM THE N...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS A LTL EAST INTO THE MID MS VLY NEXT
WEEKEND. AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...THE NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE POINTING TO THE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES. THERE ARE THE EXPECTED DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES IN THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE...WILL
LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

UPR FLOW TO BECOME WESTERLY WITH SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES
NEXT SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE A LOW POP CHC FOR PRECIP WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATUS OVER THE REGION APPEARS TO BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS
IFR TO LIFR CLOUD DECK IS NOTED IN SPOTS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. A GROUPING OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SPROUTING NORTH
OF I-70 ALONG A NARROW LINE AND APPEAR TO BE LIMITED TO THIS AREA
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

A VERY MUDDLED PATTERN IS IN THE OFFING FOR TODAY AS THE THREAT
FOR A PASSING SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE...BUT THE LARGER
THREAT FOR THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
TAF SITES...GENERALLY IN KY AND SOUTHERN IN...AND TRIGGERED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING.

MVFR VSBYS/CIGS COULD BE FOUND OVER THE REGION AT ANY TIME IN THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. WITH NO TRIGGER TO INDICATE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
OR AREAS OF SHOWERS...TAF AMENDMENTS WILL BE MORE REACTIVE THAN
PROACTIVE.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS