Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 231038 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 638 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY. RETURN MOIST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INTERACT WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ALOFT TO BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A MIX OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. SKIES HAVE BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO SOME MID CLOUDS. HOWEVER...WE SHOULD SEE SOME OF THIS DWINDLE THIS MORNING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND HEATING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL AMPLIFY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE REGION. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL REGION WILL EVENTUALLY EXTENDED FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC SEABOARD. OUR AREA WILL EVENTUALLY SEE A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE COMBINED WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM BUT IT WILL BECOME MORE HUMID. FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A REPEAT OF MONDAY CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE INTERACTING WITH DISTURBANCES ALOFT. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME LEADING TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME. A BREAK IN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE LONG TERM ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME MINOR STRENGTH AND TIMING ISSUES. DUE TO THIS HAVE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR THE LONG TERM TIME PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... EXPANSIVE MID DECK /12KFT-20KFT/ HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. DON/T EXPECT CIGS TO DROP BELOW ABOUT 10KFT THIS MORNING...AND THEN SLOWLY BREAK UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. THUS EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. FLOW WILL BE WEAK/VARIABLE THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD AS WELL. IF WINDS DO GET ABOVE 3 OR 4KTS...LIKELY TO BE AN ESE COMPONENT THOUGH WILL BE VARIABLE MOST OF THE TIME. A LITTLE BETTER INCREASE IN WIND ON SUNDAY MORNING AS FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY IN STRONGER WARM ADVECTION REGIME. ALSO COULD SEE SOME SCT-BKN 4KFT-6KFT CIGS DEVELOP VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH THIS STRONGER PUSH OF WARMTH/MOISTURE...AND HINTED AT THIS IN NEW 30 HOUR CVG TAF VALID SUNDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...BINAU

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