Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 031406 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1006 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST...ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY..SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN SATURDAY DRYING OUT THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED WEST TO EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE WAVE IS FORECAST TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH HIS AFTERNOON. AS THE ASSOCIATED 925-850 MB LOW WORKS EAST...SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BETWEEN THIS AND SOME INCREASING INSTABILITIES...EXPECT PCPN COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. PWS ARE FORECAST TO NUDGE UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY...UP TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES IN OUR SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SLOWER MOVING STORMS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... SURFACE LOW TO PUSH OFF TO THE ENE INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN FROM THE NW. PARTIAL CLEARING AND DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AIR TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE LOWER 60S SE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. HAVE LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SE CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT HAVE CUT BACK POPS. GENERALLY EXPECT A DRY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS AROUND 80. THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACRS THE REGION SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NE TO THE LOWER 60S SW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LTL SUNDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER LOW IS SLOW TO EXIT THE EAST COAST AND THIS HAS APPARENTLY SLOWED THE EXPECTED PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO EARLY WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND TUESDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS BEGIN TO DIVERGE DEPENDING ON THE MODEL USED BEYOND THIS TIME. REGARDLESS OF HOW THEY DEVELOP...IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH FREQUENT PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS. HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MUTED AND GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE EXPECTED PASSING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE SAME REASONING. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ACROSS KENTUCKY ON A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING LESS THAN IDEAL FLIGHT CONDITIONS. SOUTHERN SITES CVG AND LUK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN. ILN MAY ALSO SEE MVFR LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE BAND OF RAIN LIFTS NORTH. KEPT DAY CMH AND LCK IN VFR THOUGH A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN PEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN MVFR THERE AS WELL. WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED...KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW THOUGH IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN LATER FORECASTS. SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH THE LOW MOVING EAST. BR MAY FORM LATER TONIGHT UNDER LIGHT WINDS. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ078>082- 088. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100. IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...FRANKS AVIATION...CONIGLIO

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