Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 240513 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 113 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will drop south across the area tonight into Saturday. The front will lift back north Sunday afternoon and evening. A stronger cold front will move through on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/... Surface cold front now at the Ohio/ Michigan border and will continue to ooze southwards this evening. As it does a MVFR deck of clouds will also push south. Highs tomorrow afternoon will be tricky as MVFR clouds will be slow to burn off and much cooler 925 mb temperatures move into the area while 850 mb temperatures remain unchanged. Have raised high temperatures a bit and kept above guidance given the cooler 850 mb air mostly heading east of the area. Prev Discussion-> Late this afternoon a surface trough was located across northern Indiana and Ohio with a cold front further north in central Michigan. Both of these features will drop south overnight. Clouds will increase and any cooling will be very late. MOS looked reasonable for lows. && .SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Cold front will continue south through the forecast area on Saturday. Forcing looks minimal so front should come through dry. Ridging behind the front will be brief as the front will come back north on Sunday afternoon and evening. Some showers and thunderstorms out ahead of an approaching cold front could move into the northwest counties late Sunday night. Respectable temperature gradient will set up north-south across the forecast area. Went a bit above guidance for highs while remaining close to a MOS blend for lows. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Models have come into better agreement in the long term period. Due to this have gone with the superblend for a majority of the forecast. Monday will be the warmest day before a cold front moves through during the day. Winds will pick up with the passage of this front and cooler air will filter into the region. A weak upper level disturbance will move through on Wednesday and therefore have a slight chance of showers in on this day. && .AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The primary focus for these TAFs is the potential for MVFR conditions between now and late this morning. A deck of stratocumulus clouds is expanding over Ohio, and will soon begin to envelop the northern TAF sites. While a brief period of IFR ceilings may be possible at DAY/CMH/LCK, especially at the onset of the clouds, most of the observations have been in the 1200-2000 foot range. These clouds will gradually scatter out and lift during the late morning, but MVFR conditions have been kept in the TAFs a little longer than in the previous issuance. It is not certain as to whether or not these clouds will reach CVG/LUK, so a tempo for MVFR ceilings will be included in the forecasts as a compromise. Northeasterly flow (at or below 10 knots) will continue through the day, with leftover clouds forming into VFR cumulus or a stratocumulus layer. OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms are possible on Monday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...Haines SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...Hatzos

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