Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 222053 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 353 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure in the southern Ohio Valley will move east late tonight and Thursday. A cold front will pass over the region early on Saturday. High pressure will build back in on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Lower stratocu deck will continue to erode from the edges this afternoon and the lingering scattered cu will dissipate by evening. Generally clear skies will be found by midnight, with a gradual increase of high clouds from the northwest later tonight. Temperatures will drop into the middle and upper 20s given light winds and generally cloud-free conditions. They may be a bit warmer if the clouds don`t dissipate this evening, or if the upstream higher clouds come in thicker and earlier. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Expect a gradual switch to southwest flow Thursday with a general warming trend until Saturday`s cold front. The clear skies and light winds should allow highs to reach the low and mid 40s on Thanksgiving, with overnight lows reaching the upper 20s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Southerly flow will increase early in the period ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will push across the region Friday night into Saturday morning. Moisture looks quite limited with this with just a small chance of measurable precipitation in central Ohio. Insolation should mostly offset initial cold air advection on Saturday. So near to slightly above normal temperatures from Friday will continue through Saturday. High pressure will build in Sunday and already start to move off to the southeast on Monday. 12Z models continue to trend towards less cooling with this air mass and forecast temperatures have been adjusted slightly warmer. There remains considerable spread in speed and strength of the next system progressing across the country early to middle of next week. Given continued differences, opted to use an ensemble mean which would bring a front into the area on Wednesday. Temperatures will become mild ahead of the front with a chance of showers as it moves through. && .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Stratocu deck has been more persistent than the early morning guidance suggested, as H8 caa has kicked over the lapse rates. Ceilings are mainly VFR, but there are a few MVFR areas. Pushed back the scattering out of the sc until 20-21Z in CVG/LUK, then took the clearing line northeast during the late afternoon reaching CMH/LCK by 00Z. A H5 s/w trof will swing down out of the Great Lakes and across the upper Ohio Valley late tonight into Thursday. This will bring an area of broken cirrus, then ac during the early morning hours. The mid level cigs will linger for the end of the taf period. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM...Franks SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM... AVIATION...Sites

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