Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 311041 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 641 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS ARE SUGGESTING THE 925-850 MB JET WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND POSSIBLY MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH ABOUT 18Z AS IT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. AS THIS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...EXPECT TO SEE PCPN FILL IN ALONG THE NOSE OF IT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THROUGH DAYBREAK. PCPN SHOULD THEN PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...BEFORE WEAKENING/SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST AS THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY REMAINS FAIRLY MARGINAL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SO THINK PCPN WILL GENERALLY BE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT TO A MINIMUM DESPITE THE HIGH PWS IN THE 2 TO 2.25 INCH RANGE. WILL BANK ON CLOUDS HANGING IN FAIRLY TOUGH THROUGH THE DAY TO KEEP TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... BETTER FORCING WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY...BUT EXPECT ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON SKY COVER. RIGHT NOW WILL STICK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S BOTH DAYS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... FCST PERIOD BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH AREA. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP A BIT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND CONSENSUS OF TIMING. CUT BACK POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING OUT OF CWA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. RIDGE WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CERTAIN DRY DAY FOR WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY APPEARS TO PROVIDE AXIS OF MOISTURE WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG IT. HAVE KEPT POPS LOW FOR NOW WITH CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ON TIMING AND COVERAGE. THIS SETS UP MORE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH APPROACHING FRONT BY SATURDAY. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN FOR NOW. TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOLEST AIR ON WED BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. MORE HEAT LATE WEEK WITH TEMPS AT OR APPROACHING 90 DEGREES. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WAVES OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE FINALLY DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY IN AREAL COVERAGE. WHILE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE COVERAGE WILL BE EXTREMELY LOW SO THUNDER NOT INCLUDED IN THE MORNING PORTION OF THE TAF. CIGS AND VSBY WILL IMPROVE VERY SLOWLY THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW AND VERY MINOR DAYTIME HEATING DUE TO SLOW EROSION OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA DURING DAY. THUS HAVE CONTINUED WITH A VCTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER A LACK OF A TRIGGER MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM AND WE MAY END UP WITH JUST SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS. FOR TONIGHT MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING LEAVING ONLY SOME MID CLOUDS TO DEAL WITH. THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGHER CLOUDS, MOISTURE FROM THE EARLIER PCPN AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD CREATE FAVORABLE CONDS FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO FORM MONDAY MORNING. HAVE BEGUN TO INTRODUCE A LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE FORECAST AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE FOLLOW UP FORECASTS LOWER THESE CONDS TO IFR. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...PADGETT AVIATION...HAYDU

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.