Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KILN 240513
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
113 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016
A weak cold front will drop south across the area tonight into
Saturday. The front will lift back north Sunday afternoon and
evening. A stronger cold front will move through on Monday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
Surface cold front now at the Ohio/ Michigan border and will
continue to ooze southwards this evening. As it does a MVFR deck
of clouds will also push south. Highs tomorrow afternoon will be
tricky as MVFR clouds will be slow to burn off and much cooler 925
mb temperatures move into the area while 850 mb temperatures
remain unchanged. Have raised high temperatures a bit and kept
above guidance given the cooler 850 mb air mostly heading east of
Late this afternoon a surface trough was located across northern
Indiana and Ohio with a cold front further north in central
Michigan. Both of these features will drop south overnight. Clouds
will increase and any cooling will be very late. MOS looked
reasonable for lows.
.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front will continue south through the forecast area on
Saturday. Forcing looks minimal so front should come through dry.
Ridging behind the front will be brief as the front will come back
north on Sunday afternoon and evening. Some showers and
thunderstorms out ahead of an approaching cold front could move
into the northwest counties late Sunday night.
Respectable temperature gradient will set up north-south across
the forecast area. Went a bit above guidance for highs while
remaining close to a MOS blend for lows.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Models have come into better agreement in the long term period. Due
to this have gone with the superblend for a majority of the
forecast. Monday will be the warmest day before a cold front moves
through during the day. Winds will pick up with the passage of this
front and cooler air will filter into the region. A weak upper
level disturbance will move through on Wednesday and therefore have
a slight chance of showers in on this day.
.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --The primary focus for these TAFs is the potential for MVFR
conditions between now and late this morning. A deck of
stratocumulus clouds is expanding over Ohio, and will soon begin
to envelop the northern TAF sites. While a brief period of IFR
ceilings may be possible at DAY/CMH/LCK, especially at the onset
of the clouds, most of the observations have been in the 1200-2000
foot range. These clouds will gradually scatter out and lift
during the late morning, but MVFR conditions have been kept in the
TAFs a little longer than in the previous issuance. It is not
certain as to whether or not these clouds will reach CVG/LUK, so a
tempo for MVFR ceilings will be included in the forecasts as a
Northeasterly flow (at or below 10 knots) will continue through
the day, with leftover clouds forming into VFR cumulus or a
OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms are possible on Monday.
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