Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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119 FXUS61 KILN 282337 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 737 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this evening as a weak cold front pushes through the area. A drier airmass will settle into the region heading into Monday before some lower chances of precipitation return through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Visible satellite imagery showing a fair amount of cloudiness pushing up across Kentucky into southern Indiana and southwest Ohio. This is helping to keep temps down somewhat with current readings only in the low to mid 70s. As a result, we have been slow to destabilize this afternoon with still some cin present across our south and the better instabilities off to our north across northern Indiana into northern Ohio. Short wave energy will move across the southern Great Lakes through early evening. Ahead of this, thunderstorms have developed across northern Indiana this afternoon and these should continue to work their way eastward as we head through early evening. The southern extent of these will be dependent on how much more we are able to destabilize through late afternoon. The HRRR is the most aggressive with this, bringing a scattered to broken line of thunderstorms across our area the 23Z-04Z time frame. However, most of the other hi res models are much less impressive with this. Will therefore limit likely pops to just our northwest and then allow for chance pops to work southeast across the remainder of the area through the evening. The severe threat looks to be pretty marginal but suppose if we were going to see any severe, the best chance would be across our northwest where some better mid and deeper layer shear is forecast to work in through the evening hours. Drier air will then work in overnight, leading to decreasing clouds from northwest to southeast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... The drier airmass will continue to settle into the region through the morning hours on Monday. Some energy rotating around an upper level low centered over the northern Great Lakes will push down toward our area later Monday afternoon into Monday night. This will help push an associated weakening surface trough down into northern portions of our area. Forcing and instability appears to be fairly weak so will just hang on to some slight chance pops across the area for mainly Monday night. Seasonable temperatures are expected on Monday with highs in the mid to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A few showers and thunderstorms may develop Tuesday in the vicinity of a weak cold front, affecting mainly eastern counties. A similar scenario is indicated for Wednesday near the stalled boundary, with thunderstorm chances enhanced by increased short wave energy rounding the base of a broad upper trough. High pressure and dry weather to start Thursday will decay rather quickly as another frontal boundary forms across the Great Lakes, allowing for a chance of showers and thunderstorms to return by Thursday night. Thunderstorms will affect mainly northern locations to start, with convection chances spreading south and persisting Friday through Sunday as the front meanders over the region. Temperatures are likely to be near normal through the period, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s to around 60. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Mid level s/w to pivot through the the region tonight as low develops over the western Great Lakes. ILN/s FA is in the warm sector with weak associated cold front approaching from the west. Cloud cover has held instability in check with blyr CAPE values up to 1000 j/kg. Forecast starting out with VFR cigs between 4000 and 5000 feet. Also, CIN has prevented the development of widespread thunderstorms due to lack of forcing in the warm sector. Broken line of storms has developed to our west invof the front, where there is a lack of CIN. Expect these storms to track east across the FA through the late evening with the passage of the front. A few of the storms could contain strong gusty winds with DCAPEs up to 1000 j/kg. Have a tempo group for a couple of hours to account for these storms. Pcpn will taper off through late evening as we lose the instability and a cold front moves through. A drier airmass will move into the area behind the front with VFR conditions expected through the remainder of the TAF period. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...AR

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