Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 181811 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 111 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will allow for dry conditions across the region today. A warm front will then lift northward tonight into Monday bringing a return of precipitation to the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Surface high pressure was located across the Ohio Valley this morning. Stratocumulus deck has become stuck underneath a subsidence inversion as seen per GOES-East. However, with return flow developing, WAA in this layer will erode and push the clouds northward into early afternoon. Thus, clouds will eventually scatter with some increasing cirrus expected from the west. Temperatures will range from the lower 40s north to near 50 south of the Ohio River. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Temperatures will drop off for the first half of the night before southerly flow becomes more pronounced. As clouds increase and southerly flow increases temperatures will begin to rise tonight. Rain chances will primarily hold off until the second half of the night. At first there will be some rain chances across southeastern portions of the region in association with a weak upper level disturbance. Additional rain chances will move in overnight and then push northwards on Monday associated with a warm frontal boundary and increase in moisture. There is some weak instability that develops along and south of the Ohio River and therefore cannot rule out some isolated thunderstorm development across this area Monday afternoon. Southerly flow increases on Monday with model soundings indicating some wind gusts upwards of around 35 mph. Although decent cloud cover will be present, with the increase in southerly flow expect temperatures to still climb into the 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Anomalously strong Bermuda high for this time of year will keep the region in deep south southwest flow. This will likely result in record warm temperatures on Tuesday. Most of the forecast area will be precipitation free Monday night and Tuesday, although far northwest counties will be in close enough proximity to a slow- moving front to keep a chance of rain there. Short wave lifting out of the Plains into the Great Lakes will flatten/reorient the axis of the high and allow the front to move across the area on Wednesday. Models continue to forecast extremely high precipitable water, up to 300 percent of normal. So heavy rain remains a concern, especially late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Analogs suggest 1 to 2 inches are possible. With the ground already saturated in many areas, flooding is possible. Starting to see some indications that a weak instability axis develops immediately ahead of the front, so cannot rule out some embedded thunder. Tuesday night will be very mild. Expect early highs on Wednesday with temperatures falling thereafter. A wave along the front will track across the Tennessee Valley Wednesday night into Thursday, so there could be a secondary surge of rain in the southeast at that time. High pressure passing across the Great Lakes will briefly build in and allow for a dry period. But another surge of moisture will push north across the area as a warm front lifts across the area late Thursday night into Friday. This will bring a return of the extremely high precipitable water values. More showers are expected Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front. Temperatures will be cooler than earlier in the week but still above normal. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface high pressure will continue to push off to the east this afternoon and evening. Lingering stratocumulus will erode/dissipate and will be replaced by high level cirrus clouds. For the overnight period, clouds will thicken and lower as strong, moist ascent develops ahead of an approaching warm front to our southwest. In a developing strong low level jet, non-convective LLWS threat will develop after 06Z. Models continue to indicate that showers will develop rapidly across the area between 09Z and 12Z. At the same time, ceilings will lower into the MVFR category. Can not rule out a rumble of thunder in some elevated instability, but this is too small to mention in the terminals at this time. On Monday, as low pressure moves northeast toward the western Great Lakes, the warm front will lift northeast as well. On going showers (embedded thunder) will pivot south to north through the day. MVFR/IFR ceilings and visbilities are expected early on near the KDAY/KCMH/KLCK terminals with mainly MVFR conditions south. Ceilings will gradually lift back into the MVFR category all locations as the area becomes warm sectored. Winds will also become a little gusty. The threat for non convective LLWS will diminish between 15Z and 18Z as diurnal mixing takes place and the strength of the winds aloft decreases. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings may linger into Monday night. MVFR/IFR ceilings and visbilities to return Tuesday night into Wednesday night. MVFR conditions possible at times Thursday and Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman/Novak NEAR TERM...Hickman SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM... AVIATION...Hickman

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