Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 221049 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 649 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COOL EARLY THIS WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN CANADA THROUGH TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A SPRAWLING AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE/BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA TODAY WILL BE FIGURING OUT THE COVERAGE OF CAA STRATOCUMULUS AND HOW FAST THEY WILL EXIT THE AREA. HAVE USED THE RAP MODEL AS A GUIDE TO FIGURE THIS OUT WHICH KEEPS ROUGHLY THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MID MORNING FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AS SUBSIDENCE...DRYING AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW INCREASE FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ARRIVAL OF AUTUMN WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL MAKE FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE ADJUSTED MAV GUIDANCE AND CONSENSUS RAW 2 METER TEMPERATURES TO TRY TO CAPTURE THE NORMALLY COOL SPOTS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THOSE COOL SPOTS TO THE MID 40S AT RIDGE TOPS AND NEAR URBAN AREAS. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON TUESDAY. SUNNY SKIES AND A MODIFYING AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE DUE TO A WARMING/MODIFYING AIRMASS. DIURNAL SWINGS OF 25 TO 30 DEGREES WILL BE LIKELY GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME MOISTURE POSSIBLY TRYING TO WORK UP FROM THE SOUTH HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH RIDGING OVERHEAD...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY/WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD SHOULD RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... PATCHY MVFR CLOUDS ARE PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. OVERALL CLOUD BASES GENREALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 2000-3000 FEET...WITH A FEW AREAS OF CEILINGS AS LOW AS 1500 FEET. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY AFFECTING THE CENTRAL OHIO TAF SITES. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFR TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. NNW WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 6-12 KNOT RANGE TODAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH TUESDAY. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...HATZOS

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