Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 091901 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 301 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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OUTSIDE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OHIO...WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND MILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH LIGHT WINDS...COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITY. THIS WILL CHANGE INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH...AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH WARMER AND MUGGIER CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER COOL AND DRY AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS STILL BISECTING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FAST/BROADLY CYCLONIC MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW. DESPITE THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FORCING EAST/NORTH OF AREA AND DEEP MOISTURE WELL SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA...RESIDUAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH MICHIGAN THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS PROVIDING ENOUGH PUSH TO A WEAK/NONDESCRIPT SURFACE TROUGH LYING ACROSS NRN/CNTL OHIO INTO CNTL IND. THIS HAS SPARKED ISLD/SCT SHOWERS THUS FAR FROM KENTON/BELLEFONTAINE SOUTHWEST INTO AREAS NORTH OF RICHMOND INDIANA. DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS THAT ARE MIXING INTO THE MID 50S MOST PLACES...DIABATIC HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THIS SUBTLE TROUGH IS PUSHING LOCALIZED MLCAPE VALUES TOWARD 500 J/KG. JUST ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE /NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH AND WLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/ TO SPARK THESE LIGHT/MOD SHRA. MAY STILL YET GET A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO - BUT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION /WEAK/ AND CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS ACTIVITY SHOULDN/T GROW UPSCALE ANY MORE THAN PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS INDICATED. HAVE CARRIED 20-30% RAIN CHANCES MAINLY NORTH OF I-70 LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE MID EVENING WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING SHOULD QUICKLY TERMINATE THE WEAK UPDRAFTS. ACROSS THE SOUTH...STILL SOME MLCINH AND DRASTICALLY FLATTER APPEARANCE TO THE CUMULUS FIELD TO SUPPORT ANY RAIN CHANCE...AND THINK BEST CHANCES CONFINED TO THE WIND SHIFT WHICH WILL DECAY /FRONTOLYSIS/ AS HEIGHT RISES ALOFT ENSUE THIS EVENING AS THE REMAINING SHORTWAVE ENERGY PULLS OUT OF MICHIGAN. COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE PRONE AREAS LATER TONIGHT ESPECIALLY NEAR THIS DECAYING BOUNDARY NORTH OF I-70 AND IN THE RIVER VALLEYS...BUT HOLDING IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW DUE TO GOOD MIXING OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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QUIET AND MILD DAYS...AND COOL /FOR THE SEASON/ NIGHTS HIGHLIGHT THIS TIME PERIOD. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL DATA /09.12Z RUNS/ SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER ANOMALIES AND 850MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES RUNNING 1.0 TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW MID JULY NORMS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THUS THURSDAY TEMPS SHOULD BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK...WITH JUST ENOUGH RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SOME FEW-SCT FLAT CUMULUS AT THE BASE OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUN...THOUGH PEAK HEATING OF BOTH DAYS COULD YIELD A TEMPORARY BROKEN SKY COVER IN SOME AREAS GIVEN THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. INCREMENTAL WARMING ON FRIDAY AS 925 MB TEMPS RISE FROM 18-19 /C/ TO 19-20 /C/ FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE ESPECIALLY GIVEN MIXING WILL NOT BE ROBUST GIVEN LIGHT FLOW UNDER THE HIGH. 09.12Z NAM SEEMS FAST WITH WEAK/DECAYING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ATTENDANT SHOWER/STORM THREAT ARRIVING LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE SLOWED DOWN LEADING CIRRUS/MID CLOUD SHIELD MORE IN LINE WITH 09.12Z ECMWF/GFS...THUS THINK MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINS DRY. THIS REMAINS THE ONLY POINT OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE FIRST 60-72 HOURS OF THE FORECAST AND THE ONE MOST APT TO POTENTIAL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FA. SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE FA. BY SATURDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE FA ON SUNDAY AS THIS FEATURE WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY THAN ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY AND BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA AND THEREFORE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY. AFTER SUNDAY THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES ON SOME OF THE FEATURES HOWEVER GENERALLY EXPECT A COUPLE MORE DISTURBANCES TO WORK THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS TIME. BY TUESDAY COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE FA. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAYS OF THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AND LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A TROUGH AXIS WILL PIVOT DOWN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AN AGITATED CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THIS AXIS..ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS...CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL INDIANA AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO. THE AIRMASS OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIGHTLY DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THIS THROUGH THE NORTHERN TAF SITES WITH JUST A VCSH GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LOW COVERAGE. OTHERWISE...DIURNAL CU FIELD SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BINAU NEAR TERM...BINAU SHORT TERM...BINAU LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...JGL

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