Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 070857 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 357 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO COLDER TEMPERATURES AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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SKIES ARE CLEAR THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. IN SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...THERMAL FIELDS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE AGAIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES PUSH UP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL HELP PUSH AN INITIAL COLD FRONT EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT. IN SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND AS THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEGINS TO INCREASE...WE SHOULD SEE SOME DEVELOPMENTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS IT PROGRESSES INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BULK OF THIS PCPN ALL RAIN...BUT SUPPOSE WE COULD SEE A MIX LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST AS SOME COOLER AIR STARTS TO WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WE WILL THEN GET INTO A BIT OF A DRY SLOT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE AND FRONT SO WILL TAPER BACK POPS TO LOWER CHANCE HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE...LEADING TO SOME WEAK LOWER LEVEL INSTABILITIES. THIS IS MOST PROMINENT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA...SO EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH LATE MORNING AND THEN WORKING EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PTYPE WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...AS WEAK LOW LEVEL CAA WILL BE COUNTERED BY A LITTLE BIT OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS MAY LEAD TO PCPN STARTING OFF AS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WEST AND POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE EAST...THEN POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING OVER TO A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS AT LEAST THE EAST...BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO ALL SNOW FROM THE WEST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD ONLY BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S WEST TO UPPER 30S EAST. THE SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH GOOD CAA DEVELOPING. IN CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN...EXPECT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL GRADUALLY LOWER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES...WE SHOULD HAVE SOME BETTER LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT UNIFORM DUE TO SOME OF THE MORE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION. IN GENERAL THOUGH EXPECT AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER INCH OR SO ON TUESDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY ONLY IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE H5 LOW BEGINS TO PINWHEEL OUT TO THE EAST AND FILL. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OFF THE LAKES HOWEVER...CAUSING SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER. STARTED TUESDAY NIGHT OFF WITH LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS AND GRADUALLY ALLOWED POPS TO LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER AS IT RUNS SOME H5 ENERGY SE ACROSS THE REGION...PRODUCING A STREAK OF SNOW THROUGH NRN KY. WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING ANY SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE FOR NOW BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT. BY THE END OF THE WEEK MORE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF CANADA...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS BRINGS CAA FLOW OFF THE LAKES AGAIN AND COULD BRING SOME FLURRIES. FOR SATURDAY MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THEIR PLACEMENT OF THE SFC HIGH...WHICH WOULD AFFECT THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. LEFT SATURDAY DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 20S ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 10- 15...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO THE MID 20S. FRIDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS HIGHS GET UP TO EITHER SIDE OF 30 BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...DROPPING TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OFF THE THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE TERMINALS FALL IN BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE. 850 MB TO 700 MB OR LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL APPROACH 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON SO SOME TERMINALS COULD BE GUSTY. IT IS A WARM AIR ADVECTION SCHEME THOUGH WHICH WOULD NOT FAVOR AS MUCH WIND MIXING DOWN SO FOR NOW HAVE JUST LEFT GUSTS IN FOR THE NORMAL GUST PRONE TAF SITES. MONDAY MORNING AN AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING SOME WEAK LIFT INTO THE WESTERN TERMINALS. TIMING ON THE ARW/NMM AND NCEP WRF ALL INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTING ACROSS THE WEST AROUND 3 Z MONDAY MORNING. WHAT IS NOT IN AGREEMENT IS THE COVERAGE. FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED A VCSH. WILL GO AHEAD AND WAIT FOR ALL OF THE 0Z MODELS RUNS TO COME IN BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON PREVAILING PRECIP OR NOT. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...HAINES

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