Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 250926 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 426 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WEST WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP NORTHWEST CWA ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY WITH READINGS AT OR BELOW THE MID 30S. REST OF CWA WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY AND RISE TO THE LOW 40S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS IT TRAVERSES THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN GET OVERPOWERED IN BETWEEN TWO COMPETING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE EAST COAST STORM AND A STRONG LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE TWO WILL PUT THE REGION INTO A HOLDING PATTERN UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MUSCLES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A GENERALLY COOL AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED IN BEHIND THIS UPPER TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW SKIRT THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR AT LEAST A MORE FAVORABLE AIRMASS FOR PASSING FLURRIES. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING SOME LIGHT QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW PROBABILITY AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE. MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT. SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR 40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE. SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS THE CENTER OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE PULLS E THROUGH CANADA...THE REGION IS EXPERIENCING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. THE INITIAL SHOT OF MOISTURE HAS BROKEN UP...BUT ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AT 2-3KFT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA IS FORECAST TO WORK SE INTO THE TAFS. THROUGH 12Z...ONLY KDAY SHOULD BE AFFECTED. THEN AS DIURNAL HEATING KICKS IN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. MVFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE NRN TAFS. THE STRATOCU WILL LINGER PAST 00Z. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...SITES

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