Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 160716 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 316 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A large area of high pressure will settle into the Ohio Valley for the upcoming week, with dry conditions expected. After some frost on Tuesday morning, temperatures will begin a gradual warming trend through next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... With surface high pressure still centered well west of the Ohio Valley, and a mid-level trough crossing through the southern Great Lakes, a cold advection pattern remains in place across the area this morning. Unsurprisingly, patches/bands of stratocumulus clouds remain in place, with a more solid area of clouds across eastern Ohio and into Pennsylvania. Another area of clouds further to the west appears to be at least partially lake-enhanced, undoubtedly aided by the relative min in 850mb/700mb temperatures currently near and downstream of Lake Michigan. Nonetheless, a large portion of the ILN CWA is in a clear spot, which has only expanded in size over the course of the night. Over the course of the day, the surface high will expand and built into the area, only enhancing the deeply dry air mass behind the mid-level trough. Though steep lapse rates will allow for some diurnal cumulus (or a continuation of the morning stratocumulus), clouds should dissipate quickly by mid/late afternoon, leading to clear skies heading into the evening. Max temperatures today will be the coolest of the month so far by a comfortable margin -- reaching only the upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... The only real concern for the short term forecast period is in frost potential for Tuesday morning. Radiational cooling conditions will be near-ideal, with clear skies and very light winds in most locations (possibly around 5 knots in the northwestern sections of the CWA). It is interesting that when looking at raw model output (WRF-ARW/WRF-NMM/NAM) there is not uniform agreement on where the coolest temperatures are actually going to occur on Tuesday morning. What there is agreement on is that the potential is there for temperatures to drop into the middle 30s, which would certainly support frost development. This could occur anywhere in the ILN CWA, but is most likely in the far eastern counties, where a frost advisory will almost certainly be needed (collaboration with surrounding offices necessitated delaying this until later today). Otherwise, the rest of Tuesday needs little discussion, with the surface high centered near the Ohio River in the Cincinnati/Louisville vicinity. Conditions appear dry, clear, and slightly warmer than Monday -- lower to middle 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Surface high pressure will extend across the Ohio Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday. The airmass will modify will temperatures warming into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Mid level energy will be passing to our north Thursday into Thursday night, which will allow a dry cold front to slip south into the southern Great Lakes. The southern end of the front is expected to wash out by Friday as surface high pressure reestablishes itself while a mid level ridge builds across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Highs Thursday and Friday will be in the lower 70s. For next weekend, the upper level ridge will slowly traverse east while a mid level trough pushes toward the Mississippi River Valley. We should remain dry with highs in the lower to mid 70s. Next chance for precipitation will either arrive Sunday night or Monday as the mid level trough and its associated cold front move east. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Areas of stratocumulus clouds are surrounding the TAF sites early this morning, and while most of these clouds are in the VFR range, some occasional MVFR ceilings will be possible for another few hours. Other than the above, the TAFs are fairly straightforward. Today, the expectation is for NW winds at around 10 knots, along with diurnal cumulus (or a lifting / continuation of the morning stratocumulus) well within the VFR range. Light winds and clearing skies are expected overnight. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hatzos NEAR TERM...Hatzos SHORT TERM...Hatzos LONG TERM...Hickman AVIATION...Hatzos

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