-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 091055
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
655 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...RESULTING IN
DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS THE HIGH
MOVES EAST...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA WILL
LEAD TO A WARM UP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BOTH DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WE ARE SEEING A FAIR AMOUNT OF WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR THIS MORNING
AND MUCH OF THIS APPEARS TO BE FALLING AS DRIZZLE. IN AREAS WHERE
THE TEMPERATURE HAS DROPPED BELOW FREEZING (LIKE HERE AT ILN)...A
LIGHT ICE GLAZE HAS DEVELOPED ON EXPOSED METAL SURFACES. GROUND
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ISSUES
ON THE ROADS...BUT HAVE ISSUED AN SPS NONE THE LESS TO COVER THE
POSSIBLE ICE ON ELEVATED SURFACES. THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAYBREAK SO
EXPECT TO SEE THIS DRIZZLE TAPER OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. AS WE CONTINUE TO DRY OUT...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY
SUNNY AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY. LOW LEVEL CAA WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE FLOW BEGINS TO BACK THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND DEVELOPING SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER BACK INTO THE 40S THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS ARE TRYING
TO HINT AND SOME SORT OF WEAK CONVERGENT BOUNDARY POSSIBLY SETTING
UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR FA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A PSEUDO WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MOISTURE IS VERY
LIMITED SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE SOMETIME
LATER MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA. IN DEVELOPING WEST
TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM NICELY BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO
THE LOWER AND POSSIBLY MID 60S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
H5 TROF IN THE NRN STREAM DIGS DOWN OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
DEVELOPS ON THE FNT AND RIDES EWD TOWARDS THE FA. THE GFS/ECMWF
TAKE THE LOW ACROSS KY...WHILE THE CANADIAN HEMISPHERIC MODEL IS
STRONGER AND QUICKER AS IT TAKES THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. THE
00Z ECMWF HAD BEEN MUCH WARMER WITH THE THERMAL FIELDS THAN THE
GFS...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF HAS NOW TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOLER GFS.
WILL RUN A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE STORM SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. UPPED POPS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
THE PCPN TO BEGIN AS RAIN...BUT THEN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN AND THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL DIP SOUTH.

AS THE LOW QUICKLY PASSES TO THE E WEDNESDAY MORNING...CRITICAL
THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH AND THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL
FOLLOW THEM. WENT WITH AN EARLY HIGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING DURING THE AFTN.

SOME CONVECTIVE CAA SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

BY THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. BY THE
END OF THE WEEK A LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES...BUT IT
WILL DRAG A CDFNT INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE
LIMITED...SO LEFT THE FORECAST DRY.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE STORM SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WILL BRING COLD AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 30 IN THE NW TO AROUND 40 ALONG THE OH RIVER.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL GO UP A FEW DEGREES BEFORE
BEGINNING TO FALL BACK IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE
FORECAST TO ONLY REACH THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BACK UP AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS LATER THIS
MORNING...YIELDING CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL START OFF LIGHT AND
NORTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING BEFORE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH
OF OUR AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME
BRIEFLY VARIABLE LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY
AND INCREASING UP TO 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...LATTO