Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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060 FXUS61 KILN 260558 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 158 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Southerly flow will result in warm and dry weather into Wednesday night. A cold front will sweep across the region on Thursday with high pressure briefly building in behind the front. Conditions will become unsettled over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Weak high pressure over the region overnight. Cumulus clouds which developed this aftn have dissipated with the loss of daytime heating. IR satellite imagery shows only some upstream high level clouds which will move across the region through the night. Expect lows from the mid/upper 50s west to the lower 50s east.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Upper level ridging will sharpen along the western edge of the Appalachians with southerly low level flow increasing during the day. Looks like there will be little to no clouds. All of this will lead to very warm temperatures, although falling a few degrees shy of records across the area. Wednesday night, a short wave will pivot out of the Ozarks into central Illinois/Indiana. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this system will approach the western counties late in the night. At this point it looks like a rather sharp gradient in moisture with this. So clouds will not increase until the latter half of the night. Persistent south winds will keep readings quite mild. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Active weather pattern will be in place for the long term period. A cold front will move through on Thursday. There are strong low level winds so wind gusts outside of thunderstorms have the potential to be 30 to 40 mph. There is also some marginal instability. With these factors in place as thunderstorms develop there will be the potential for isolated damaging wind gusts Thursday morning into the early afternoon hours. The Storm Prediction Center also has the region in a marginal risk for Thursday. Included this threat in the HWO. Temperatures will begin to cool during the afternoon hours as cooler air works into the region. There will be a lull in the precipitation Thursday night. Cannot rule out a few showers or storms on Friday, however any coverage is expected to be limited. This will allow for temperatures to climb back into the 70s to around 80. There is some uncertainty for the weekend with where the frontal boundary lays out and subsequently where the best precipitation chances are and how warm temperatures will be. Due to this did not go more than likely precipitation chances at any point during the weekend expect for northwest of Interstate 71 Saturday morning. Breezy conditions are expected for much of the weekend and into the early part of next week. Dry conditions are then expected Monday night into Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Mid level ridge will continue to build northward into the middle Ohio Valley through sunrise. Only some scattered cirrus is expected. Any mist/fog should be isolated. For today, mid level ridge shifts east while a cold front moves east into the western Great Lakes and middle/lower Mississippi River Valley. Again, only some FEW-SCT cirrus is expected. Southerly winds will increase between 15Z and 18Z will become locally gusty between 20 and 25 knots. For tonight, an embedded disturbance will eject from the southern Plains into the middle Mississippi River Valley. This will perturb an area of low pressure on the cold front to our west which will begin to make inroads east as the low ripples northward toward the western Great Lakes. Showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the front in an axis of low level moisture convergence and upper level support. These showers and embedded storms will move toward the western terminals toward 12Z. Winds will stay locally gusty overnight as the pressure gradient tightens. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities along with a chance of thunderstorms on Thursday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities with a chanced of thunderstorms again Friday night through Sunday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Hickman/AR SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...Hickman

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