-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 100154
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
854 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN TUESDAY
NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SNOW POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. LOW STRATOCUMULUS HAS BEEN ERODING OVER THE AREA...BUT
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS FORCING ARRIVES IN THE NEXT 3-6
HOURS. THE SPEED AT WHICH THE AREA OF SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CWA IS DRIVEN BY THE QUICK WINDS ALOFT...AS MOST OF THE FORCING IS
QUITE A WAYS OFF THE SURFACE.

THE OVERALL FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY...WITH
THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW STILL EXPECTED TO FALL ALONG A LINE FROM
BATESVILLE INDIANA TO NEWARK OHIO. LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED UNDER THE
RIGHT REAR JET QUADRANT...BUT THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SO FAST THAT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY ONLY ACTUALLY RECEIVE SNOW FOR A FEW
HOURS. USING SNOW RATIOS OF AROUND 18-TO-1...IT APPEARS THAT THE
HIGHEST TOTALS COME OUT TO JUST UNDER TWO INCHES.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREAS OF SNOW WILL BE TRANSLATING SOUTHEASTWARD ON TUESDAY
MORNING. 1 TO 2 INCHES TOTAL ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT OVER
WEST CENTRAL OHIO...WHICH MAY BE SPARED MOST EFFECTS OF THESE
SYSTEMS.

AFTER HIGHS REACH ONLY INTO THE 20S TUESDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...LOWS IN THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS TO MID
TEEN ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ADVANCES FROM THE WEST. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES. HIGHS IN THE 20S WILL BE
FOLLOWED WEDNESDAY NIGHT BY PLUNGING READINGS INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AT MOST LOCATIONS AS A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AIR REINFORCED WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR
THURSDAY. THURSDAYS HIGHS 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING
FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE MID/UPPER 20S SOUTHEAST.

A SLIGHT MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY ON THE BACK SIDE
OF RETREATING SFC HIGH AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT LOWS FROM
AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST TO NEAR 15 SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
NORTH TO THE MID/UPR 30S SOUTH.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF WEAK PERTURBATION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL SPREAD POPS IN FROM THE SW FRIDAY EVENING
AND BUMP UP INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY ACRS THE SOUTH WHERE BEST
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL EXIST. LATEST NUMERICAL MODELS SOLNS HAVE
TRENDED A LTL WARMER WITH THIS SYSTEM. IN WAA PATTERN WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO RAIN ACRS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF ILNS FA SATURDAY BEFORE CHANGING BACK OVER TO SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGHS STILL ABOUT 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH
TO NEAR 40 SOUTHEAST.

CONFIDENCE IN FCST DECREASES LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK REGARDING THE HANDLING OF HOW FAR SOUTH DEEP MID/UPR LEVEL LOW
DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LATEST DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND GFS SOLNS
HAVE FLIPPED WITH THE GFS NOW FURTHER SOUTH AND THEREFORE COLDER.
GIVEN SPREAD HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED SOLN WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 20S NW TO THE LOWER
30S SE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR THESE
NUMBERS TO BE 5 TO 7 DEGREES COLDER ON MONDAY. HAVE ALLOWED FOR A LOW
POP CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WITH THE BEST THREAT ACRS THE
NORTH. SFC HIGH TO NOSE INTO OHIO VALLEY WITH NORMAL LEE LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS SET OF TAFS IS A PERIOD OF SNOW FORECAST
TO AFFECT ALL OF THE TAF SITES ON TUESDAY MORNING.

MVFR CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE
FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH A SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS REMAINING IN
PLACE. HOWEVER...THIS CLEARING WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS SNOW
BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST AND QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE TAF SITES
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SINCE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE...A
FORECAST OF IFR CONDITIONS IS WARRANTED. SOME BRIEF LIFR
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY THE HEAVIEST
BAND OF SNOW SETS UP...THOUGH THIS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT KDAY.

AFTER THE SNOW MOVES AWAY...CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE...AS
WESTERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY (WELL INTO THE 20 KNOT RANGE).
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY
EVENING...THOUGH RIGHT NOW ONLY KDAY APPEARS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE
MVFR CEILINGS DUE TO THIS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS