Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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615 FXUS61 KILN 212124 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 424 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Showers will be possible through tonight along a weak cold front. Dry weather will be found on Wednesday as return flow sets up ahead of the next system. A warm front will lift north through the Ohio Valley Thursday night, and then some thunderstorms may develop with the passage of a cold front Friday night.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Expect the pcpn over srn IN to develop ewd this afternoon as moisture and lift get pulled into the region ahead of a cdfnt. Convergence across nrn OH is much weaker and the consensus of models is dissipating this pcpn. So increased the PoPs this afternoon and early evening to high chance around the Ohio River. At this time, did not go to likely, but this might be necessary if some of the wetter models are correct. The bulk of the pcpn will pivot ewd this evening, affecting mainly srn OH/nrn KY, but can`t rule out some isolated pcpn in Central Ohio after midnight. Kept PoPs in the 20s however. Low temperatures tonight will remain well above normal, actually several degrees above the normal highs for this time of the year, as the will only fall to the around 50.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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What is left of any frontal convergence will be found across eastern sections as Wednesday begins. This will keep a 20 to 30 percent chance of showers in the forecast for the east. As the day progresses the chance should dissipate. Abundant low level moisture will keep the skies cloudy for the morning, but some mixing by afternoon should bring some peaks at the sun. With H8 temperatures around 8C, highs should be able to reach the mid 60s again. The region will be warm sectored Wednesday night, but the models are showing quite a bit of cloud cover. In addition, several models are bringing a vort max thru the zonal flow. This is providing lift and causing some scattered showers to develop, mainly along and se of I-71. Lows will remain warm with lows in the lower to mid 50s.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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No large scale swings in the forecast this afternoon for the extended period. Tried to limit shower activity on Thursday first in the southeast during the morning as the warm front lifts northeast through the region, then along and north of the I-70 corridor in the afternoon and early evening. Forcing then lifts well north and away from the immediate CWA, with good southerly flow setting up on Friday. Thursday night lows will be unseasonably mild (for high temperatures) and be in the low to mid 50s. Friday will see highs ahead of any rainfall reach into the 70s. Have pushed back the threat of showers on Friday to ramp up in the afternoon, and added the thunder threat from the afternoon into the overnight period. Feel that most of the convective threat will occur after 0z, peaking with fropa during the late evening, and then rapidly ending by daybreak in the east. Saturday will see cold pool convective showers possible and experience more normal high temperatures in the 40s. The lower lcls in the cool airmass may support some snow showers in northern portions of the CWA - again north of the I-70 corridor and primarily late in the day and early evening with quickly waning precipitation chances. The cooler temperatures will last through the weekend and then see a warmup for next week, along with increasing threats for rain, developing into thunderstorms with a cold frontal passage expected Tuesday or Wednesday. Expect any rain in the warm sector with the next system to be minimal and then be concentrated with the diurnal passage of the front. Even with this, blended models and have some low chances for showers starting as early as Monday.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... H5 split flow pattern across the eastern U.S. will bring a cdfnt into the region tonight. Previous runs of the models had been forecasting some dying showers across nrn OH, with a more organized area of showers developing over srn/OH/nrn KY, associated with moisture from a closed H5 low in the deep south. Consensus of the 12Z models backed off on the nrn pcpn area and are now focusing more on the srn pcpn. So dried out KDAY, and added a tempo SHRA to KCVG/KLUK beginning around 21Z and lasting to around 00Z. By then, the area of pcpn should be pivoting to to e and will brush KILN and then KCMH/KLCK later in the night. With weak low level flow and a moist boundary layer clouds will lower overnight. All tafs sites should drop to IFR cigs between 06-12Z. MVFR fog is also expected. The fog and low cigs will linger after 12Z Wednesday. Vsbys should recover to VFR by 15Z, but IFR/MVFR will linger into the afternoon. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and vsbys are possible Wednesday night. Thunderstorms are possible Thursday and Friday. MVFR ceilings and vsbys are possible Saturday. && .CLIMATE...
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Record High Temperatures Date CVG CMH DAY Wed 2/22 71(1922) 70(1930) 69(1922) Thu 2/23 72(1985/1996) 66(1906/1985) 68(1985) Fri 2/24 72(1930) 72(1961) 67(1930/1961)
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio/Sites NEAR TERM...Sites/Franks SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...Sites CLIMATE...

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