Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 170023
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
723 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017
Warm front will continue to push northward this evening. A cold
front will move through on Tuesday. An upper level disturbance
will keep precipitation chances in the forecast Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Warm front continues to lift northward. Lower vsbys and cooler
temperatures are near and north of this feature. Patchy to areas
of fog will continue tonight across northern and western portions
of the area with lots of low level moisture in place. In addition
a couple rounds of rain will move through and expect vsbys to be
lowered with breaks in the rain. Do not expect temperatures to
really fall much overnight with southerly flow.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will move through on Tuesday. There is some weak
instability and therefore have some thunder mention in the
forecast. Although there will be a lull in the precipitation
Tuesday afternoon and early evening a decent upper level
disturbance will bring scattered rain showers to the region
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The greatest coverage of the
shower activity will be across northeastern portions of the
region. Some lingering drizzle will be possible on Wednesday
before precipitation tapers off. Even as precipitation tapers off
on Wednesday lots of low level moisture remains and keep clouds
around through the day on Wednesday. High pressure and dry
conditions are expected Wednesday night.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High amplitude upper air pattern with energetic systems will prevail
through the period. Upper low in the Plains will open up as it
pivots north. This will result in low pressure tracking up the Ohio
Valley and weakening as it heads into the lower Great Lakes early in
the period. Showers will accompany this system Thursday night into
Friday. After this moves by, southerly flow will remain with much
above normal temperatures continuing into the weekend. A large upper
low will track into the mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday and then
turn northeast on Monday bringing more showers to the region. Cannot
rule out a bit of thunder as well.
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --The initial band of showers is overspreading the area early this
evening. As this leading band has approached, cigs have actually
gone VFR across much of the area. Will therefore go a bit more
optimistic with the cigs in the early stages of the TAFs but as
the low levels saturate back up, do expect cigs to drop back down
into IFR category later this evening and into tonight. After the
initial band, it looks like we may see a couple hour lull in the
precipitation before the next wave of rain moves in overnight.
This is associated with decent short wave energy and a
strengthening 40-50 knot 925-850 mb low level jet rotating up
across the region. Some marginal elevated instabilities will also
be pulled up into the area later tonight so think a few
thunderstorms are not out of the question. Would expect the best
chance for this to be at the southern TAF sites so will include a
VCTS at KCVG/KLUK for a few hours later tonight. Given the
strengthening jet, low level wind shear will also be possible
overnight but both the NAM and GFS keep bulk shear values just
below 40 knots through the night (although the stronger LLJ on the
RAP does meet criteria at times in the 06Z-12Z time frame). Rain
showers will continue into Tuesday morning until a cold front
pushes east across the area through late morning. Behind the
front, winds will swing around to the west and become a little
gusty through the afternoon.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities through
Wednesday. MVFR/ IFR ceilings are again possible Thursday
afternoon through Saturday.
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