Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 141145 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 645 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the area today and move off to the east tonight. A weak cold front will brush the region late Friday. Southerly winds will become established over the weekend which will bring temperatures closer to normal. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Winds have been decreasing and will continue to do so into the early morning. Thereafter, speeds through the day should be around 10 mph. Satellite imagery shows breaks in the low clouds pushing south across the western part of the forecast area. Appears that the breaks may just be transient at first with clouds predominating through most if not all of the morning. Low clouds will eventually erode but there will be an increase in high clouds late in the day. Temperatures will continue to fall into early to mid morning. Then there will be a slow rise. Forecast highs are on the cool side of guidance. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... High pressure over the region at the start of the period will quickly move off to the southeast. Winds will be light and variable. The exception will be in northwest counties where winds will become southerly before daybreak. With temperatures not being all that warm to start, readings could drop off quickly in northern counties before high to mid clouds become more extensive there. Given forecast winds and clouds, expect temperatures to not follow normal diurnal pattern tonight. Low pressure will track across the Great Lakes on Friday with a trailing cold front brushing the forecast area later in the day. This could be enough to generate a few snow showers or perhaps just flurries across the northern tier of counties. Although winds will be south to southwest, not a lot of warming will be going on ahead of the boundary. There should be quite a bit of clouds across all but far southern counties through the day. Stayed at or a bit below guidance for highs. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Dry conditions will start out the long term Friday night through Saturday night. A weak upper level disturbance will be pulling out of the region at the start of the long term. The next chance for precipitation will be on Sunday as a disturbance moves across the region. Along and north of Interstate 70 some snowfall may mix in with rain showers, however the rest of the area will likely just see rain. Another upper level disturbance will move through on Monday keeping precipitation chances in the forecast. Precipitation will taper off Monday evening. Dry conditions are then expected for the remainder of the long term Monday night through Wednesday as surface high pressure builds into the region. Temperatures will be generally pretty close to normal values for this time of the year. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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MVFR deck across most of the region will gradually decrease through the day, generally from northwest to southeast. Bases will slowly lift as well, so those areas below 2000 ft will lift above that level and some places will lift to VFR before scattering. Northwest winds will decrease to 5 to 10 kt early in the period. Winds will become light and variable and start to come around to the south late in the period. Once the lower deck decreases, VFR will prevail with extensive high clouds. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible Friday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Sunday into Monday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...

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