Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 301508 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1108 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE REGION TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...PROVIDING DRY AND MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG IT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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OTHER THAN SOME THIN CIRRUS LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST. THE 12Z ILN SOUNDING SHOWS DRIER AIR BUILDING IN THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A DRY AND GENERALLY CLEAR AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS EAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. NAM IS QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH THE QPF FIELDS WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT WIDER IN COVERAGE AND LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY HOURS. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO HAD ME PUT LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ENDING SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY. EVEN WITH THIS POSSIBILITY OF RAIN...CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN FEATURES AND THEREFORE HAVE USED A BLEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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DRY AIR WORKING IN QUICKLY THIS MORNING HAS KILLED ANY FOG. SOME LINGERING CI AND CU/SC WILL THIN OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEN SOME ADDITIONAL SCT CU COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTY WINDS MAYBE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WITH THE DRY AIR...MOST TAFS WILL SEE NO FOG. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY AT LUK FOR SOME MVFR FOG TOWARD SUNRISE TOMORROW...BUT THINK THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO LEAVE OUT. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...KURZ SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...SITES

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