Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 200625 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 225 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE...AND THEN PRECIPITATION SPREADS OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT KEEPING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... EVENING FORECAST UPDATES HAVE CENTERED ON MASSAGING OF THE SKY GRIDS TO CAPTURE SCT-BKN CIRRUS /MORE OPAQUE FAR NRN FORECAST AREA/ AND RAPIDLY FALLING EVENING TEMPS IN AREAS SOUTH OF THIS THICKER CIRRUS. KUYF /LONDON OHIO/ IS A RATHER EXTREME EXAMPLE UNDERNEATH THE CENTER OF THIN/TRANSLUCENT CIRRUS AND PLUMMETED FROM 52F TO 36F IN 4 HOURS EARLY THIS EVENING...AND SEVERAL SITES IN CNTL OHIO FOLLOWING SUIT. THIS AREA RATHER CALM WITH WEAK SWLY FLOW STILL A FEW HOURS AWAY FROM DEVELOPING. THUS...TOOK THE 01Z ANALYSIS TEMP GRID...AND ALLOWED SEVERAL MORE DEGREES OF DROP BEFORE STEADYING OUT AND ALLOWING A BETTER RISE IN THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH ARRIVAL OF THICKER MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SEEN GATHERING OVER ILL/IN AT THIS HOUR. 20.00Z RAOB FROM KILN SAMPLED THE VERY DRY TROPOSPHERE THAT IS SUPPORTING THE TEMP DROP...WITH PWAT A MEASLY 0.21" AMIDST A WEAK WAA FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. MINOR DISTURBANCE OVER ILLINOIS AHEAD OF MORE SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST AND STRENGTHEN SOME AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH OVERALL DEEPENING OF TROUGH IN EASTERN US. RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED GROWTH/EXPANSION OF 8-9KFT ALTOSTRATUS DECK AND EVENTUAL GENERATION OF SOME -SHRA LATER TONIGHT OVER SRN IND/NRN KY. VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME AND THINK RADAR WILL HAVE MORE BARK THAN BITE /MORE REFLECTIVITY SHOWN THAN WHAT WILL BE HITTING THE GROUND/ SO KEEPING SERN INDIANA/SWRN OH/NRN KY DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASE IN A SPRINKLE/VERY LIGHT SHOWER THREAT ON MONDAY MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WELL OFF TO THE MID ATLANTIC BY MON MORNING AND THE TROUGH ON OUR DOORSTEP BY 12Z. AM SIDING WITH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS WHICH DONT BRING IN PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER 12Z WITH SOME LACK OF LL MOISTURE. BETTER ISENT LIFT DOESNT GET INTO FCST AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z...WITH THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE NRN FCST AREA INTO THE DAY. FOR MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPR TROUGH CUTTING OFF AND SLOWING DOWN OVER THE EASTERN GRT LAKES. THIS WILL LINGER PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH AMPLE CLOUDS. AS THE PRECIPITATION TRIES TO PULL EAST MONDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPR LOW SO AM KEEPING CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. A RETURN OF SOME GOOD FETCH OFF WARM LAKE MI...SO HAVE ALSO ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED/ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FAR WESTERN FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE FLOW BECOMES MORE DUE NORTHERLY AND THE CHANCES DIMINISH AREA WIDE. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH WITH COMPLETELY PULLING OUT PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST...AS WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE PROGRESSION (OR LACK THEREOF) OF THE UPR LOW. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW WITH A SHARP RIDGE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION AND A MEAN TROF OVER THE EAST COAST TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF TO OUR EAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY. FLOW AROUND THIS LOW WILL RESULT IN NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE REGION. EXPECT MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO BE EAST OF ILN/S FA WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURG THE DAY. EXPECT WED/S HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 50S SOUTH. UPPER LOW TO TRANSLATE INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SFC BUILDING INTO THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP ILN/S FA DRY WITH EMBEDDED S/W TO PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME MODERATION THROUGH THE WEEK. LOWS IN THE MID/UPR 30S ON WED AND THURS NIGHTS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FROST FORMATION. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION IN THE GRIDS AND HWO PRODUCT. EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH SOME MODERATION ON FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 60 NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH. NORTHERN PORTION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO FLATTEN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OHIO VALLEY NEXT WEEKEND AND ACTIVE WEATHER TO STAY WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL NEXT SATURDAY/SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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MID LEVEL AS DECK WILL SEE SOME SPRINKLES DROP OUT OF IT BUT WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO DO ANYTHING OTHER THAN LOWER THE CLOUD DECK FOR LATER IN THE MORNING. WORST OF THE RETURNS CURRENTLY ON RADAR HAVE PRODUCED A 10SM SHRA AT FWA FROM A 9500` DECK. DO NOT EXPECT THE CORE OF THE UPCOMING SHOWERS TO DIRECTLY HIT ANY OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND WOULD EXPECT SIMILAR RESULTS FROM A MID DECK. THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED VCSH FROM TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO THE UNLIKELY NATURE OF OCCURRENCE AND OVERALL INSIGNIFICANCE TO AVIATION IF THEY DO OCCUR. L/W TROUGH WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM 18-0Z TONIGHT AND WILL INTERACT WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO PRODUCE PRIMARILY VFR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE COULD OCCUR AT ANY TAF SITES BUT STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF MATERIALIZING AT CMH/LCK. REGARDLESS OF POTENTIAL SHOWER ACTIVITY...CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR A PERIOD STARTING AROUND 0Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF NO CIGS WILL BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THESE SHOWERS BEFORE THE LOWER LEVEL STRATOCU DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT DUE TO STRONG CAA. .OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDR NEAR TERM...BINAU SHORT TERM...JDR LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...FRANKS

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