Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 262157 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 457 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATES AND DRY WEATHER TO REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH TROF OVER THE ROCKIES AND A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. NRN PORTION OF THE TROF TO INDUCE SFC WAVE WHICH EJECTS NE INTO THE UPPER MS VLY BY SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN THIS LOW AND SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SE US. AXIS OF 8H CONVERGENCE INTO THE NW AT NOSE OF 35-40 KT LLJ TOWARD SUNRISE. WILL FOLLOW MODEL CONSENSUS HOLDING OFF PCPN UNTIL JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE IN THE NW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING UP AT 5 TO 10 MPH AND THICKENING CLOUDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S EAST TO THE UPPER 30S WEST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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SFC WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM TO TRACK NE THRU THE GREAT LAKES SAT/SAT NIGHT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO TRACK EAST THRU ILN/S FA SAT NIGHT. FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS DURG THE AFTN ALONG WITH PW/S APPROACHING 250 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN THE WEST LATE IN THE AFTN. WILL BUMP POPS UP TO LKLY IN THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. BEING ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH SATURDAYS HIGHS FROM NEAR 50 NW TO THE UPPER 50S SE. WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL SAT NIGHT WITH FROPA. DEEP MOISTURE EXITS AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR BUT WITH SLOWER MOVEMENT OF FRONT IN SPLIT FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A MIX WITH SNOW IN THE NW SUNDAY MORNING. SATURDAY NIGHTS LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO THE MID 40S SE. WILL LINGER PCPN ACRS THE SOUTH SUNDAY WITH AXIS OF 8H CONVERGENCE OVERRUNNING THE SFC FNT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY A LTL ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO THE UPPER 40S SE. WILL LINGER CHANCE POPS IN THE SE SUNDAY EVENING. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NW TO THE LOWER 30S SE.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN DEPICTED BY THE 12Z MODELS SHOWS RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND IS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. THE PATTERN FEATURES A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING...SO THE FORECAST STARTS OUT DRY ON MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...THOUGH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANYTHING THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. THE SOUTHWEST TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EJECT INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS STATES AT THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... RETURN FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODEST SWLY WIND GUSTS /17KTS OR SO/ ACROSS THE TAF SITES. INCREASING MOISTURE AFTER SUNSET WILL ALLOW FOR A BKN CIG TO SPREAD OVER THE SITES...LIKELY FROM 3KFT TO 4KFT FROM EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. TOWARD SUNRISE...SOME DRYING RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF WILL LIKELY LIFT CIGS INTO THE 5-6KFT RANGE. APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER DISTURBANCE SAT AFTN WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS BY 18Z ESPECIALLY DAY/CVG/LUK/ILN...AND THESE WILL LIKELY SPREAD DOWNSTREAM TO CMH/LCK LATER SAT AFTN. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH THESE SHOWERS...BUT MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY FOLLOW. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...SHOBE2 AVIATION...BINAU

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