Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 202345 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 745 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Above normal temperatures will persist across the Ohio Valley through Monday ahead of a cold front. The cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday, then drier and cooler air moves in for the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Few showers in northern part of the forecast area will move northeast out of the area early this evening. Appears that a disturbance in the mid Mississippi Valley will cross the region late tonight. This will bring an increase in cloud cover and perhaps some further isolated showers. Temperatures will remain warm through the night. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Expectation is for any nocturnal upstream convection to have dissipated by the time it would make it into the CWA early Monday, although it`s not out of the question lingering showers make it into the far northwest CWA. Either way, some high clouds will be left behind for Monday morning. More cumulus are expected by afternoon as well, and therefore have started to trend the sky forecast upward a little for Monday, and it`s possible that much of the CWA could wind up more partly cloudy than mostly sunny for Monday. In addition, latest guidance suggests the potential for convective development in the afternoon/early evening mainly across the northwest portion of the CWA. Larger scale forcing is still best well northwest of the CWA, but moisture looks better and models suggest sufficient CAPE to generate a few cells as long as any capping erodes. Maxima will rise into the upper 80s, perhaps even hitting 90 in a few spots. Factoring in dewpoints in the mid 60s will yield heat index values into the mid 90s on Monday. Much of any convective activity on Monday would likely dissipate after the sun sets, but as a cold front approaches will continue with very low pops across the northwest corner of the CWA late at night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The main focus for the long term period will be the potential for severe weather and flash flooding on Tuesday. Thunderstorms will begin to move into northwestern portions of the forecast area Tuesday morning. In addition cannot rule out some isolated convection along and just southeast of Interstate 71 during the late morning and into the afternoon hours. These storms will have a damaging wind and hail potential. As the line of storms across northwestern portions of the forecast area move towards the southeast it will encounter a better environment with higher, although not substantial, cape values. Expect the main threat with the line to be damaging winds with locations northwest of Dayton having the lowest threat and a higher threat along and just southeast of Interstate 71. With the flow orientation believe that the wind threat south of the Ohio River will be a little less, however isolated damaging winds will still be possible. With the orientation of flow and the potential for the multiple rounds of thunderstorms, flash flooding will also be a concern generally southeast of Interstate 71. The cold front will move through Tuesday night. This will be followed by cooler and drier conditions for several days. With good CAA Wednesday and Thursday increased cloud cover substantially with cu expected to develop during the day on both of these days. Expect less cloud cover on Friday and Saturday as we lose the CAA. Temperatures Wednesday through Saturday will generally be in the 70s across most locations. Another system begins to approach for Sunday so there will be an increase in cloud cover and precipitation chances will begin to move back into the region. Temperatures will also be slightly warmer on Sunday with WAA. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Remaining cumulus should dissipate early in the period leaving mid and high clouds. As a disturbance pushes into and through the area between 06Z and 15Z there will be a scattered to broken deck around 5-6kft and possibly a few showers. This disturbance will likely minimize visibility restrictions, although there is some possibility at KLUK. Once this disturbance passes, expect few to scattered cumulus to remain through the rest of the TAF period with cirrus over the top. Winds will be light tonight and become south southwest up to 10 kt during the day. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are likely Tuesday into Tuesday evening. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BPP NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...BPP LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...

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