Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 270546 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 146 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL SAG SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY LATE WEDNESDAY WHEN THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT BACK NORTH AHEAD OF A POTENT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... CANCELED THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE WATCH. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HOWEVER ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT HAS DISSIPATED. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP SOUTH HOWEVER EXPECT IT TO REMAIN NEAR THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THIS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRESENT OVERNIGHT NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND WARMER TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE IT LIFTS NORTH TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL INCREASE...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN A POTENT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PUSHING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST MAINLY IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED FORCING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO VARY WITH RESPECT TO FRONTAL POSITION. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S FAR NORTH TO THE MID 70S FAR SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THURSDAY STARTS OUT WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE MIDWEST AND A WARM FRONT SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TURN OFF OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A H5 S/W MOVES INTO THE AREA. AS THE H5 S/W CROSSES...ANY CHANCE FOR LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL PROVIDE A LULL IN ANY RAINFALL WITH AN EASTERLY DRYING WIND ON SATURDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A REPEATED PATTERN WILL SEE ANOTHER SURFACE LOW IN THE MIDWEST WITH AN EASTERLY ORIENTED WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP STARTING WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY SATURDAY AND CULMINATING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WHEN THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OVER OHIO. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS ANOTHER S/W MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD TURN OFF ANY RAIN MONDAY. GFS...EUROPEAN...AND HPC GUIDANCE ALL DIFFER BEYOND SUNDAY AS THE GFS IS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SURFACE WAVE AND SHOULD BE THE WAY THE PATTERN EVOLVES GIVEN H5 ZONAL FLOW. EUROPEAN HOLDS BACK THE SURFACE LOW MONDAY AND HPC GOES EVEN FURTHER WITH KEEPING THE CIRCULATION IN OHIO THROUGH TUESDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS AND KEPT A COOLER FORECAST UNTIL MON/TUES AS THE CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN WILL OFFSET ANY WEAK COLD ADVECTION WITH A HIGH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... REMAINING SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS BELOW 2000 FT TO DEVELOP AREA WIDE WITH POCKETS OF IFR CEILINGS. LOWER CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT DURING THE DAY...EVENTUALLY BECOMING VFR AFTER 18Z. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...FRANKS AVIATION...

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