Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 272118 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 418 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AND COLD AIRMASS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM WISCONSIN TO OHIO TONIGHT. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRIMARILY OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE FA WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY. ONCE THE HIGH CENTER MOVES CLOSER LATER TONIGHT...SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE WHILE WINDS DECREASE...RESULTING IN A CLEARING TREND. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE AFFECTED BY SNOW COVER. WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE FA AND LITTLE SNOW IN MOST SOUTHERN LOCATIONS...EXPECT LOWS TO VARY FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH...UP TO THE MID TEENS SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS IT MOVES EAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT WELL AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. THE LOW WILL TRAVEL TO THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...TRAILING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ILN AREA. MODELS INDICATE RATHER LIMITED AND SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM...PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...MIXING WITH SLEET AND THEN CHANGING TO RAIN AS WARM ADVECTION BRINGS ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL MENTION CHANCE FOR FREEZING PRECIP AREA WIDE IN UPDATED HWO. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT ICING WHEN TIMING...LOCATION AND TEMPERATURES BECOME CLEARER CLOSER TO THE EVENT. ALL PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH NAM AND GFS MOS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 20S AND 30S ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL DIFFER FOR THURSDAY...WITH THE GFS PREDICTING WARMER CONDITIONS. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR THIS PACKAGE RESULTING IN HIGHS UP TO 40 FOR MOST LOCATIONS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... CAA AND SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR EAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION...LEADING TO DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO LOWER 30S SOUTH. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK AROUND TO THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING HOW MUCH TO PHASE THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WITH THE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. AS A RESULT...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES AND THEIR RESULTING THERMAL FIELDS. THAT BEING SAID...THEY ARE ALL STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SPREADING A DECENT CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY SNOW...BUT WILL INTRODUCE A RAIN SNOW/MIX ACROSS THE SOUTH AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING THAT A LITTLE WARMER AIR MAY SNEAK UP INTO OUR AREA. PCPN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...DEVELOPING CAA AND A FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. IN GOOD CAA...EXPECT ONLY A MINIMAL RISE IN TEMPS ON MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH CLEARING SKIES MONDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY END UP BEING DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW IS POSSIBLY ON THE GROUND FROM THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACRS SW OHIO WILL DECREASE AS MID LEVEL S/W DROPS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...WRAP AROUND MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KCMH/KLCK AND MAY AFFECT KILN FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTN. A FEW FLURRIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE CENTRAL OHIO TAFS. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE FROM THE WEST AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW TONIGHT. HAVE CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR THIS EVENING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER OHIO. NORTHERLY WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND THEN SE LESS THAN 10 KTS ON WEDNESDAY. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...AR

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