Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 220244 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1044 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will move east through the area tonight. High pressure will build in for the beginning of the week offering drier and cooler conditions. Another system will approach the Ohio Valley at midweek, bringing chances of rain back into the area.
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Cold front will continue to move east through the remainder of the eastern half of the CWFA through 06Z, or 2 am. Some scattered showers and storms can be expected along and ahead of the front. Skies should become partly cloudy behind the front with drier and cooler air filtering into the region. Overnight lows will range from near 50 northwest to the upper 50s southeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Elongated mid level low to work through the northern Great Lakes with surface high pressure building into Ohio Monday afternoon. This high will offer drier conditions and temperatures a little below normal. Expect to see a good deal of sunshine with mainly just some thin high level clouds during the day. Mondays highs to range from the upper 60s north to the lower 70s south. Surface high pressure will shift east with mid level flow backing southwest. Mid and high level clouds will increase overnight with dry conditions continuing. Expect lows Monday night in the mid and lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Surface high pressure will be departing the region to the east on Tuesday, as the upper level flow pattern begins to amplify over the region. Spawned from an upper low moving from northern Ontario to northern Quebec, a secondary upper trough (and eventually a closed low) will move south through northern Mississippi Valley region, as southwesterly flow aloft becomes more established over the southeastern states. Caught somewhat between these two features, the ILN CWA will remain dry for the first part of the day. There remains decent model agreement that most of the southern stream moisture will remain near and east of the Appalachian mountains, so attention for the middle Ohio Valley will turn to the forcing just ahead of the low, which will result in gradually increasing precipitation chances from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. There is also confidence in some degree of surface cyclogenesis in the region on Wednesday, with the greatest chances for precipitation being just ahead of this feature, mainly during the first half of Wednesday. Instability appears limited in the cooler air mass associated with the upper low, so while thunder chances are not zero, they will be low (and maybe limited to diurnal timing). Though Tuesday should be able to reach the lower 70s (especially if there are clearer skies ahead of the incoming system), a cool-down is expected for Wednesday, with the warmest conditions (mid to upper 60s) across the eastern half of the CWA (and lower 60s in the west). 12Z GFS/ECMWF runs have, interestingly, trended faster with the progression of the upper low -- keeping rain chances around for Thursday, but leaving Friday mostly dry. Will compromise this with the previous forecast (and a desire to not go too fast with the departure of an upper low) by allowing PoPs to continue into Friday morning for the eastern half of the CWA. Though Thursday will remain similar in temperature to Wednesday, fairer weather conditions will allow for a notable increase in temperatures on Friday. Model spread is quite high for the weekend forecast, giving low confidence in the specifics. A very brief period of ridging is expected to move across the Ohio Valley on Friday, before a series of shortwaves in the pseudo-zonal flow begin to affect the region on Saturday and Sunday. Within the GEFS suite and from run-to-run of the operational ECMWF/GFS, there are insurmountable differences in wave amplitude/timing. For now, low PoPs will be maintained through the entire weekend, with slightly above normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A cold front will continue moving east through the eastern terminals this evening. Once the front passes, the threat for scattered showers and thunderstorms will end. Clouds will gradually scatter to post frontal stratocumulus overnight as surface high pressure builds east into the Ohio Valley. Surface high pressure will remain over the region on Monday. Any lingering post frontal stratocumulus will shift east. Moisture appears scant for cumulus redevelopment in the heat of the day so have left out. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Wednesday and Thursday. MVFR visibilities possible Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman/AR NEAR TERM...Hickman SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...Hickman is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.