Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 132342 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 642 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Surface low pressure will move east across southern Michigan this afternoon into evening bringing a chance of snow. High pressure will then build into the area for Thursday. Another cold front will then cross the area Friday evening into Saturday morning. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Surface low pressure is currently located across southern Lake Michigan. Extending to the southwest is a surface cold front. Out ahead of the cold front weak warm air advection is occurring with ice pellets being reported. The surface cold front is expected to cross our western zones this evening and clear the CWA by 11 pm. Just ahead of the front an increasing LLJ will cause surface winds to quickly increase with wind gusts approaching 35 mph. Just behind the surface cold front a mid- level short wave will approach from the northwest with the 1.5 PV surface diving down to ~500 mb. Even though the timing of when the PV anomaly arrives is not great (as compared to if it was during the afternoon) it still will be sufficient to provide isolated gusts up to 40 mph. The 1.5 PV surface anomaly will be greatest towards our southwest so will continue an SPS out for these zones. Early Thursday morning the surface low and corresponding mid level short wave will pull east of the area. The surface cold front will also clear the zones with temperatures quickly falling into the 20s behind. Winds will slowly begin to relax as sun rise approaches Thursday morning. && .SHORT TERM /2 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... During the day Thursday more cold air will filter into the region with 850 mb temperatures falling towards 10 degrees C below zero. High pressure will move in for the afternoon with the pressure gradient slowly relaxing. This working with clouds remaining across the region will keep high temperatures around or below freezing. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Surface low pressure to track through the northern Great Lakes Friday. Best precipitation to stay to ILN/s north closer to the surface wave. Will carry low chance pop of snow showers north Friday/Friday night. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal, with highs Friday ranging from the upper 20s north to the mid 30s south. Upper level flow backs westerly with ridge building into the region. Southerly low level flow develops Saturday with temperatures warming to near normal. Expect highs Saturday to range from the mid 30s north to the mid 40s south. Mid level flow backs southwesterly with moisture spreading back into the area early next week. Model solutions differ on timing and strength. Due to model solution spread, confidence decreases. Will use a blended approach with chance pops spreading in Sunday. The p-type will change over to rain in the warm air advection and then mix with snow in the north prior to ending Monday. This pcpn event looks to be progressive with pcpn ending early Monday. Sundays temperatures to run a little above normal with highs from 40 to 45. Temperatures looks to continue a little above normal with Mondays highs ranging from the the upper 30s north to the upper 40s south. With a mid level trof across the Great Lakes and northwest flow over the area, will limit pops to low chance over the far north Tuesday. Based on thermal profiles, will allow for a mix of rain and snow. Surface high pressure to then offer dry weather at mid week. Temperatures close to normal next Tuesday and Wednesday with highs from the upper 30s north to the mid 40s south. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Expect MVFR ceilings within a couple hours as low level moisture increases in the circulation around Great Lakes low pressure. Light drizzle is forecast to occur with the lowered ceilings. As high pressure and drier moves in, improvement back to VFR will be gradual from southwest to northeast, with CVG and LUK seeing VFR around 12z, DAY and ILN 16-18z, and CMH/LCK around 23z. Winds will be gusty, reaching close to 30 knots tonight before subsiding Thursday in the relaxed gradient around the high pressure, while direction changes from southwest to north. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Friday and again on Sunday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...Haines SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Coniglio

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