Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 232052 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 352 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL OFFER MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT. A CLIPPER WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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DEEP POSITIVELY TILTED SOUTHERN STREAM TROF OVER THE SRN PLAINS TO SHIFT EAST AND SOMEWHAT PHASE WITH A NRN TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MAIN SFC LOW TO STAY WELL TO OUR SOUTH...TRACKING FROM THE GULF STATES ACRS THE SE U.S. TONIGHT AND UP THE EASTERN COAST AND BOMB OUT SATURDAY. MAIN EFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM TO STAY TO OUR SE WITH OUR FAR SE COUNTIES ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD. INVERTED SFC TROF DEVELOPS INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEFORMATION TO AFFECT OUR SE AND THEN QUICKLY SHIFT EAST. SHARP NW EDGE TO THE PRECIP BAND. PCPN SHOULD START OUT AS RAIN AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. WILL CONTINUE CATEGORICAL POPS WITH BEST CHANCE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE SUGGESTING 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SOLN/S POINTING TO LESS THAN AN INCH. HAVE TRENDED THE FCST TO A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IN OUR FAR SE. TEMPERATURE TO FALL TO LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY WITH EMBEDDED WEAK VORT DROPPING THRU SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING. WEAK SFC TROF TO WORK SE THRU THE FA TOWARD EVENING. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OF MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE FAR NORTH. SATURDAYS HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH. ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS SAT NIGHT WITH WEAK SFC RIDGE WORKING ACRS THE REGION. WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS...LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. FOCUS SHIFTS TO CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WHICH DROPS SE FROM THE UPPER MS VLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. MODEL SOLNS DIFFER ON EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. GENERAL TREND OF SOLN/S IS A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK. NAM HAS TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND TAKES THE SFC WAVE THRU THE SRN I-70 CORRIDOR SUNDAY AFTN. THE GFS 06Z RUN WAS A LTL SOUTH OF THIS TRACK AND NOW (12Z RUN) HAS SHIFTED THE SFC LOW TRACK TO NEAR CVG BY 00Z MONDAY WITH IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF TRACK. MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO FAR NORTH WITH THESE DIGGING SYSTEMS. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED GFS/ECMWF SOLN AND WILL BRING CATEGORICAL POPS FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE ALL SNOW ACRS THE NORTH WITH A MIX...CHANGING TO SNOW ACRS THE CENTRAL AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACRS THE FAR SOUTH. IT IS EARLY WITH THIS BEING A 4TH AND 5TH PERIOD EVENT BUT AT THIS TIME HAVE BUMPED UP SNOW TOTALS TO 2 TO 4 INCHES FROM I-70 ON NORTH WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS NORTH. 18Z RUNS ARE TRENDING EVEN FURTHER SOUTH WITH STORM TRACK...SO THIS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED FURTHER S. HAVE ADJUSTED SUNDAY/S HIGHS A LTL COLDER RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S N TO THE LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTH TO NEAR 30 SOUTH.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER WILL BE MOVING EAST ON MONDAY. KEPT POPS BELOW PRECIP THRESHOLD ON TUESDAY WHEN A MINOR DISTURBANCE IS SHOWN BY MODELS TO AFFECT ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW MAY OCCUR THURSDAY WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED ACROSS THE AREA BY GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ARE PROGGED TO RETURN ON FRIDAY. CHILLY HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ARE FORECAST EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY WHEN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MAY PUSH HIGHS UP TO AROUND 40.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES. IF IT APPEARS THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL ENCROACH KCVG...KLUK...KILN...KCMH...AND KLCK...ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE. OTHERWISE...PESKY MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE AS THIS LAYER LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODELS SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS/MVFR CEILINGS TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES ONCE AGAIN. HAVE BROUGHT IN MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 1800 AND 2500 DEPENDING ON THE ELEVATION OF THE AIRPORT. ON SATURDAY...IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF SITES. WE MAY SEE A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST SITES EXCEPT KCMH/KLCK. ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS GOES BY...WEAK CAA AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING BACK MVFR CEILINGS TO ALL TAF SITES ONCE AGAIN. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO MONDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...CONIGLIO AVIATION...HICKMAN

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