Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 010839 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 439 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY...AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME FEW-SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY EXHIBIT DEEP MIXING THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WILL FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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HAVE USED A BLEND OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...THE GFS...AND THE ECMWF THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...THEN MAINLY THE ECMWF THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PERHAPS SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER THE MID MS VLY. FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH MOVES AWAY FROM OUR REGION...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE NAM- WRF SEEMS TO BE OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO OUR NW CWFA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAW DEWPOINTS ON THE MODEL ARE IN THE LOWER 70S VERSUS MUCH LOWER VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON THE GFS AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT...IT SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH HIGH VALUES OF MLCAPE. HAVE LEANED AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION...FOCUSING THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR NW CWFA UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. AS RESULT...HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR SUNDAY. BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING (LLJ) AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH A DIGGING MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BE POISED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST SUNDAY EVENING...WITH A WEAKENING TREND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. WILL MAINTAIN 30 AND 40 POPS FOR THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS. ON MONDAY...A MID LVL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. WEAK FORCING WITH THE FRONT ONLY CALLS FOR 30 AND 40 POPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LAY OUT EAST TO WEST NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE THREAT FOR PCPN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH PERHAPS SOME REDEVELOPMENT TO OUR SOUTHWEST LATE AS A WEAK LLJ TRIES TO POKE NORTHEAST INTO THIS AREA. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER GIVEN AN INCREASE IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL SHOW MORE OF A GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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MULTIPLE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS TIME HAVE DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS TRIES TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY HOWEVER WENT WITH THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH ONLY 70S TO LOW 80S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VERY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP VISIBILITIES IN THE VFR RANGE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH ONLY FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE OUT OF THE WNW...GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...HATZOS

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