Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KILN 182056
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
356 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017
A few rain showers will possible this afternoon and this evening across
southern Ohio and northern Kentucky, as an upper level disturbance
tracks through the Tennessee valley. Temperatures are expected to
be 20 to 25 degrees above normal, today through Tuesday, with the
next chance for rain showers Tuesday with the approach of a front.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Weak returns are currently near interstate 71 this afternoon
with light rain being reported at KCVG. Across the south
temperatures have been a bit suppressed this afternoon thanks
to widespread cloud cover while across the northeast
temperatures have risen very quickly. KCMH has already broken
its record high temperature for this afternoon as of 1230pm. The
upper level low over Arkansas will continue to push east this
afternoon helping to keep the precipitation mostly across the
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday morning a weak cold front will approach the area from the
northwest and stall. Ahead of the front winds will decrease with
moisture pooling out in front. This will make for a cloudy night
and Sunday morning. Lower PWAT air will then clip the CWA and
briefly allow PWATs to fall to around 0.40" (on both NAM and
GFS). Heights will then continue to rise as a broad upper level
trough exits the area. 850 mb temperatures Sunday are around 8
degrees C which would again support high temperatures in the
lower 60s. The only concern with how warm we will get Sunday
will be how long clouds from the morning hang around. Overall
have tempered high temperatures a bit for Sunday given the
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --The extended stretch of above normal temperatures will continue
from Monday through Friday. Widespread temperatures in the 60s
are expected with some isolated 70s also possible Monday,
Tuesday, and Friday.
A weak cold front will move through Tuesday allowing for some
shower activity. A frontal boundary will meander around the
area Thursday into Thursday night allowing for showers and a
chance of thunderstorms.
Winds will be gusty on Friday as the front lifts north and
southerly flow increases. A strong cold front moves through
Friday night. Thunderstorm activity will be possible Friday into
Friday night with the front. This front will signal a chance to
cooler conditions for Friday night into Saturday. Some very
light snow cannot be ruled out on the back edge of this system
and with some of the wrap around moisture.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
All TAF sites are currently VFR with mid and high clouds
increasing across northern Kentucky. Weak returns are appearing
on the radar this afternoon and will likely remain near and
southeast of interstate 71. This is thanks to weak isentropic
upglide and a weak 700 mb deformation band. High res models also
in general support this with better coverage south and east. By
6z Sunday morning any precipitation that does form will be
starting to exit the region. Sunday morning a weak frontal
boundary will sag and stall just north of KDAY. Not surprisingly
right ahead and along the front high res models are restricting
visibilities and ceilings. The SREF probabilities also support
this. Later Sunday morning lower PWAT air will filter into the
northern zones (GFS PWATs < 0.5") and help to clear some of the
low clouds out (esp. towards CMH/LCK). Further towards the south
and west the lower PWAT air will not ever make it. Due to this
some high res models never clear out KCVG/ KLUK and keep them
MVFR. Overall think this is overdone. Most likely KCVG/KLUK will
eventually breakout Sunday afternoon.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible Tuesday and Thursday.
Record High Temperatures
Date CVG CMH DAY
Sat 2/18 68(1948) 63(1948/1994/2011) 64(1948)
Sun 2/19 74(1939) 70(1939) 70(1939)
Mon 2/20 72(1891/2016) 68(1891/2016) 69(2016)
Tue 2/21 70(1930) 71(1997) 68(1930)