Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 271601 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1101 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TODAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS FAIRLY LOW...UTILIZING HRRR SOLUTION FOR NOW WHICH DOES DEPICT THE LULL AND SLOWER TIMING OF PRECIP ONSET WITH THE SECOND WAVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE SHOWERS NOT YET DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND SW...STILL ANTICIPATION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO GENERATE SCATTERED AND THEN MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AFTER 18Z. HAVE RAISED TEMPS SLIGHTLY WITH THE WAA AND THE BREAK IN THE RAINFALL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... AS CDFNT PUSHES ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT WILL KEEP MENTION OF CATEGORICAL POPS. COLDER AIR WORKING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SOME SNOW TO MIX IN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE INITIAL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...THE REMAINDER OF THE UPPER TROF WILL SLOWLY EJECT OUT OF ROCKIES. THIS CAUSES THE FRONT AND THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN TO HANG UP FOR SUNDAY. KEPT LIKELY POPS SE OF 71 FOR SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE EXTREME NW COUNTIES BEING DRY. SHEARED OUT TROF SWINGS THROUGH ON SUNDAY FINALLY PULLING THE PCPN OUT OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY AND NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A MODEL OR TWO IS HINTING AT SOME SPOTTY PCPN IN THE CAA MONDAY. THINK THIS IS OVERDONE...SO LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S INT HE NW TO THE MID 40S IN THE SE. TEMPERATURE WILL ONLY RECOVER A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY AS THE COOLER AIR WORKS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE SEASONAL ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...THOUGH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANYTHING THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. THE SOUTHWEST TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EJECT INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS STATES AT THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BAND OF SHOWERS THAT WILL PUSH INTO TAF SITES DISSIPATING THIS MORNING. WAS NOT SURE OF THE VERACITY OF THESE MODELS BUT EVEN WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS HOLDING TOGETHER IT WOULD ONLY CONSTITUTE A 2 HOUR OR SO BLOCK OF TIME WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM A VFR CLOUD DECK. THE WORST OF THIS MORNINGS ROUND OF SHOWERS WOULD DROP CIGS/VSBYS TO THE HIGHER END OF MVFR AND THEN COME BACK UP TO VFR UNTIL THE NEXT ROUND OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO NW AND THEN N OVERNIGHT...WITH FROPA HAPPENING TOWARDS OR A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LOWER MVFR AND SOME IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE INCREASES AND SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS LATE DAY AND EVENING. RAIN WILL END NW-SE ON SUNDAY AND CIGS WILL LIFT SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE DAY. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SITES NEAR TERM...JDR SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...SHOBE2 AVIATION...FRANKS

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