Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 281449 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1049 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY WORK INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER UPR MS VLY TO OPEN UP AND RIDE OVER THE SE US RIDGE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. INITIAL S/W VORT LOBE TO PIVOT EAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL HELP INDUCE A SFC WAVE WHICH WILL RIPPLE EAST ALONG STALLED E-W FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. INITIAL CONVECTION PUSHING INTO WESTERN OHIO WEAKENING AND SHUD CONTINUE TO FALL APART. HOWEVER...LATEST VISIBLE SATL IMGRY SHOWS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION WHICH WILL LEAD TO DESTABILIZATION. EXPECT SFC BASED CAPE VALUES CLOSE TO THE BOUNDARY ACRS SRN OHIO TO BE BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. ILN/S 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH IS YIELDING DELTA THETA-E VALUES OF 20 DEG C. EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF WEAK SFC WAVE LONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTN IN THE UNSTBL AIRMASS. GIVEN DRY MID LEVELS AND WET BULB ZERO VALUES AROUND 7500 FEET...A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN HWO WITH THE PRIME TIME BETWEEN 3 PM AND 8 PM. GOOD GRADIENT TO HIGH TEMPS WITH ONLY UPPER 50S FAR NORTH...TO UPPER 70S FAR SOUTH...SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN WARM SECTOR. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... ONE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. AFTER THIS FEATURE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA TODAY TRAVELING NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. NORTH OF THIS REGION TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. IN ADDITION...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO AS WELL TODAY NEAR THE BOUNDARY. SOME CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS COULD SEE MULTIPLE STORMS MOVE ACROSS THEIR AREA TODAY. DUE TO THIS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLOODING ISSUES AS WELL AND HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FOR FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO SUNDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAY ON SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS OHIO VALLEY INTO SUNDAY. NO REAL INDICATION OF ANY SEVERE OR HYDRO ISSUES FOR THIS EVENT FOR NOW. SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BUT SOME MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER S/W SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR NOW FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE FIRST OF THE WEEK HAVE LOWERED POPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS INDICATED. TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE WITH SEASONABLY COOL NIGHTS AND SEASONABLY MILD DAYTIME HIGHS. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MOST SITES WILL EXPERIENCE IFR CEILINGS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXCEPTION IS IN THE COLUMBUS AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT IFR COULD DEVELOP THERE THIS MORNING. BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH. SO STAYED WITH MVFR BELOW 2000 FT. CEILINGS WILL LIFT THROUGH THE DAY. IN ADDITION...AN EAST-WEST FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA. STILL EXPECTING IT TO STALL BEFORE MAKING IT AS FAR NORTH AS KDAY - KCMH/KLCK. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP NEAR THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO CEILING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHILE FURTHER NORTH MVFR WILL PERSIST. STAYED WITH VC DESIGNATION FOR PRECIPITATION AS IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS. THE FRONT MAY SAG A BIT FURTHER SOUTH TONIGHT. LOW CEILINGS WILL REDEVELOP. IFR TO LIFR WILL OCCUR NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH MVFR TO THE SOUTH BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...NOVAK/AR SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM...PADGETT AVIATION...

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