Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 281454 AAB AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 954 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS THE SW CORNER OF THE FA WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE TEENS. SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE STEADY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AROUND SUNRISE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY BE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE AREA. DUE TO THIS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. CONTINUED TO MENTION FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. IN ADDITION TO THE FREEZING RAIN...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF SLEET AS WELL. WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING AND AS IT DOES TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE FA. A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA. AS THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE REGION PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO A COMBINATION OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIGHT AND AN INCH OR LESS. ANY REMAINING LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE FA LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. WITH THIS COMBINATION EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE FA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK AROUND TO THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING HOW MUCH TO PHASE THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WITH THE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. AS A RESULT...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES AND THEIR RESULTING THERMAL FIELDS. THAT BEING SAID...THEY ARE ALL STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SPREADING A DECENT CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY SNOW...BUT WILL INTRODUCE A RAIN SNOW/MIX ACROSS THE SOUTH AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING THAT A LITTLE WARMER AIR MAY SNEAK UP INTO OUR AREA. PCPN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...DEVELOPING CAA AND A FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. IN GOOD CAA...EXPECT ONLY A MINIMAL RISE IN TEMPS ON MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH CLEARING SKIES MONDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY END UP BEING DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW IS POSSIBLY ON THE GROUND FROM THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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LINGERING MVFR VISIBILITIES IN MIST/HAZE SHOULD DISSIPATE IN MOST LOCATIONS BY 16Z TO 17Z AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION LIFTS AND SOME LIGHT WINDS MIX THINGS UP. THEN VFR SHOULD PREVAIL WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA WITH A MID DECK MOVING IN AFTER 9Z ON THU. OUTLOOK...FROM 11Z TO 17Z ON THU...MVFR CIGS AND OR VIS SHOULD DEVELOP AND SOME AT LEAST BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS AND VIS ARE POSSIBLE 18Z THU THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z FRI. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR IN ALL AREAS 6Z TO 18Z FRI WITH THE VFR CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION ON THU...A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE OH RIVER OR MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF LUK AND CVG. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO DETERIORATE AGAIN ON SUNDAY...TO MVFR AND THEN TO IFR AND PERHAPS AIRPORT MINS BY SUNDAY EVENING.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...JP

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