Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 241441 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 941 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FCST FOCUS TODAY REVOLVES AROUND STRONG WINDS AND CONVECTION THIS MORNING. STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NE INTO SRN CANADA. 60 KT SWRLY LLJ PIVOTING THRU THE AREA TODAY. RAP SHOWING BLYR CAPE OF 350 J/KG ACRS W CENTRAL OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS MARGINAL INSTBY AHD OF SFC COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICS HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION. SOME OF THE STORMS WERE TRANSLATING WINDS UP TO 45 KTS TO THE SFC. AN ISOLATED SVR WIND GUST OF 50 KTS OR GREATER IN A STRONGER STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THIS MARGINAL INSTBY WEAKENS AND PIVOTS TO THE NE THIS MORNING. CURRENT FCST HAS GOOD HANDLE TAKING THIS CHANCE OF THUNDER EAST AND THEN DIMINISHING. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH FROPA IN STRONG CAA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL WILL GET PULLED DOWN IN THE POST FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION. HAVE INCREASED SUSTAINED WINDS AND BUMPED UP GUSTS INTO THE UPPER 40 KT RANGE. EXPECT WINDS TO BE IN THE HIGH END WIND ADVISORY RANGE. THEREFORE... HAVE KEPT CURRENT WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE GOING. AFTER MORNING HIGHS IN IN STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECT EARLY HIGHS WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO LATE AFTN READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. HAVE ADJUSTED AFTERNOON TEMPS A LTL COLDER IN THIS CAA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... BY EVENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN. LEFT OVER WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THICKNESSES FALL. THERE SHOULDNT BE ANY APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS. BY TUESDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS. ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AS ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM AFFECTS THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER S/W IS DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY ON WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER MS VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS SYSTEM DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC WAVE FROM CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE. IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE. WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... CONVECTIVE BAND OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA MAY SKIRT KDAY FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS MORNING SO CHANGED VCSH TO VCTS AND HAVE AN HOUR OF TEMPO TS HERE. REMAINING TAF SITES WILL LIKELY NOT GET INTO THE DEEP CONVECTION AS THIS AREA IS SLATED TO MOVE NORTHEAST FROM DAYTON AREA AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING LIFTS NORTHEAST WITH THE EJECTING LOW PRESSURE CENTER. MVFR CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT IN THE 2-3KFT RANGE INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME BREAKUP NOTED AWAY FROM KDAY AFTER ABOUT 5 OR 6. A TRAILING EDGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND CONTINUED PLACEMENT OF A VORT AXIS AT H5 OVER THE AREA WOULD HAVE LOW STRATOCU CONTINUE AT KDAY BUT NOT NEARLY AS LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL ALSO EXHIBIT A MARKED DECREASE TONIGHT. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100. IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059- 066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES NEAR TERM...AR/SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...FRANKS

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