Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 141040 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 640 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TONIGHT AS MUCH COLDER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A NARROW LINE OF ENHANCED CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE. THE PCPN IS OCCURRING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A 50-60 KNOT 925-850 MB JET THAT IS FORECAST TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN AS IT PIVOTS UP ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THROUGH MID MORNING. THE MOMENTUM TRANSFER TECHNIQUE OFF BOTH THE NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS IS SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 40-50 KNOT WIND GUSTS MIXING DOWN ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA THIS MORNING. THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WOULD BE ALONG OR JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE PCPN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHERE WE HAVE SEEN SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 40 KNOT RANGE BACK TO OUR WEST SO FAR THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL WAA...THINK THE MOMENTUM TRANSFER TECHNIQUE MAY BE OVERDOING THE WINDS A BIT. BETWEEN THIS AND THE FACT THAT THE STRONGER WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED...AM LEANING AGAINST A WIND ADVISORY ATTM AND PLAN ON HANDLING STRONGER WINDS WITH AN SPS. THE AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA IS SOMEWHAT DRIER ATTM AND THE 00Z MODELS ARE GENERALLY WEAKENING THE INITIAL BATCH OF PCPN AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THROUGH DAYBREAK. AS A RESULT...HOW FAR EAST THIS PCPN WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT SO WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR WEST THIS MORNING...TAPERING THEM BACK FARTHER EAST. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN REDEVELOP INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL VERY MILD...MAINLY RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL GO AHEAD AND NUDGE UP HIGHS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO MID 70S SOUTHEAST. DO EXPECT NON-DIURNAL TEMPS THOUGH ACROSS THE WEST AS CAA DEVELOPS WITH FROPA. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA. MEANWHILE..PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THIS EVENING...OVERSPREADING THE REST OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS ACROSS OUR AREA. IN DEVELOPING CAA...THERMAL FIELDS WILL COOL OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR RAIN TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA TOWARD MIDNIGHT...WITH THE CHANGEOVER THEN WORKING EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR FA THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE 00Z GFS REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SNOW...TRYING TO GENERATE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA...WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE MORE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE. THE 13.21Z SREF PLUMES HAVE A DECENT CLUSTERING IN THE .5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR NORTH...WITH A MEAN GENERALLY IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE. OBVIOUSLY GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM BUT THE SNOW WILL BE FALLING AT NIGHT TIME WHICH SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR SOME ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AREAS AND ELEVATED SURFACES. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE AN ELEVATION EFFECT WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS SEEING A FASTER CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AND THUS POSSIBLY HIGHER SNOW TOTALS. WILL GENERALLY ALLOW FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE MIAMI VALLEY/WEST CENTRAL OHIO WITH MAINLY AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR AREA. THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM WILL INITIATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR FA ON TUESDAY...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A RIPLEY COUNTY INDIANA TO PIKE COUNTY OHIO LINE. WITH CAA...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND MAY APPROACH FREEZING ACROSS POSSIBLY RIPLEY AND DEARBORN COUNTIES. WITH SNOW IN THE FORECAST AND TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECT TO APPROACH FREEZING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OVER A COUPLE OF THE COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON A FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES ARE ONLY GIVING HIGHS IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 30S FOR TUESDAY. WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT COLD AS WE SHOULD HAVE SOME SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA. WILL THEREFORE GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR FA. AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS UP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS THEN ARE SHOWING WIDE VARIATIONS IN THE HANDLING OF ENERGY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THE GFS IS THE MOST ENERGIZED... WRAPPING UP A CLOSED H5 OVER THE NRN GREAT PLAINS THU NIGHT LEADING TO A WELL DEFINED SFC LOW AND CDFNT IN THE MS VALLEY. THE GFS SWINGS THE FNT AND ASSOCIATED PCPN INTO THE FA WED AFTN. THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE SUBDUED WITH JUST WEAK H5 TROF AND AN INVERTED SFC TROF. THE CANADIAN HEMISPHERIC IS THE MAN IN THE MIDDLE. THE GFS LOOKS TOO WRAPPED UP. WPC MEDIUM GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARDS THE WEAKER ECMWF AND SO WILL I. SO KEPT THE POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY IN THE W AND SLIGHT CHC IN THE E. THEN AS THE SYSTEM SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT WENT WITH CHC POPS. THE SYSTEM PULLS E ON SATURDAY...LEAVING A LINGERING SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. WITH THE REGION IN SLY FLOW ON THU HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD JUMP TO THE 60S. KEPT HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 60S...WITH THE SE STAYING AROUND 70 ON FRIDAY...SINCE I LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER ECMWF. THE WEEKEND HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP TO 35 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE ONLY SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY...GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. LIGHT RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS WILL VEER OUT OF THE WEST. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER TO MVFR LATER THIS EVENING AND THEN TO IFR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS RAIN CONTINUES. MVFR VSBYS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL. A TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SNOW. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER EARLY INTO THE DAY TUESDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051>054-060>062. FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OHZ077>082-088. KY...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ089>100. IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ050. FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR INZ073>075-080.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...LATTO

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