Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 272255 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 655 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid conditions will continue through the weekend...keeping heat index values near 100 in some areas. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will again be possible through the early part of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... While the majority of thunderstorm activity has left area...still monitoring the far southeast where DCAPE values remain elevated...so still some potential for severe wind gusts with these scattered storms. 0Overnight lows to remain quite warm overnight...with lows in the lower 70s in the far southeast and in the metro areas of especially Columbus and Cincinnati. Kept overnight lows a little warmer than short term guidance. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... The mid/upper level ridge again dominates the weather for Sunday in especially the southeast...with the expectation that daytime heat index values could approach 100 again in the southeast forecast area with afternoon thunderstorm development again...with enough instability and the potential for higher DCAPE values brigning gusty winds with slow storm motion and moist environment also brigning potential for heavy rain. Will have to monitor closely...as if enough activity develops...may diminish high heat index potential. A weak shortwave will skirt to the south of the area on the back side of the ridge on Monday...which will again serve as a focus of thunderstorm development in the afternoon. Temperatures will moderate some with the ridge beginning to retreat. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short wave over Hudson Bay at the beginning of the period will dig southeast and carve out a trough across the northeast United States. This will push a cold front through the region on Wednesday. There is not much moisture with this front and forcing looks weak... although cannot rule out some showers and thunderstorms in northern counties. Warm and humid conditions will persist ahead of the front. But a cooler and drier airmass will spread in for the rest of the week...with temperatures at or slightly below normal. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A line of convection will continue to progress northeastward over the next few hours and is expected to affect mainly the western terminals. MVFR to IFR vsbys and ceilings will be possible with the stronger storms along with a wind shift to the W/NW. There is lower confidence on whether the storms will hold together to reach the Columbus terminals later this afternoon, as models remain split on this possibility. Regardless, expect the convection to diminish by early evening as instability wanes. With plenty of low level moisture in place, light winds, and skies becoming partly cloudy to mostly clear, br will be possible overnight, especially at KCVG/KLUK/KILN. Weak high pressure over the region will cause winds to become more northerly overnight into Sunday. A weak boundary dropping down from the north will allow for another chance of showers and storms Sunday afternoon, but being so late in the period have not included this in the TAFs. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible through Wednesday...mainly in the afternoon and evening. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDR NEAR TERM...JDR SHORT TERM...JDR LONG TERM... AVIATION...Kurz

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