Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 091514 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1014 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An area of low pressure and associated cold front will move across the region this afternoon into this evening. A weak upper level disturbance will move across primarily central Ohio Sunday evening. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Light snow was moving into the western CWFA this morning. This precipitation was stratiform in nature, developing in an area of weak isentropic lift ahead of main upper level energy still to our northwest. Light snow will spread east this afternoon, along with a cold front which will push in from the west. Once the cold front goes by, precipitation will change over to snow showers as low level instability increases along with dynamic lift from upper level energy (in the form of a PV anomaly/perturbation). QPF amounts will be light, and with SLRs around 15:1, we should see light accumulations of an inch or less. Since this will be the first appreciable snow of the season, motorists should use caution as slick spots may develop on untreated roadways. Will continue with the SPS. Temperatures will rise into the lower to mid 30s. Winds will increase from the west and will become gusty behind the cold front.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
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Snow showers will linger into the evening hours before tapering off overnight. Winds will remain gusty this evening in the wake of the cold front. This will allow for some additional reduced visibilities with any remaining snow showers across the region. Sunday will start out dry. A quick moving weak upper level disturbance will move across primarily northeastern portions of the forecast area bringing the chance for very light snow to portions of primarily central Ohio.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A compact, fast-moving short wave swinging across the region at the beginning of the period is starting to show some potential to produce a bit of light snow. So have introduced low PoPs, primarily for eastern counties. A deeper system dropping south southeast into the Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday will then head east Tuesday night. The associated surface will pass north of the region, but warm air advection ahead of the low will generate some snow generally north of I-70 on Monday. Then after the low moves east, cold air advection will cause snow showers to spread across much of the area, especially in a lake- enhanced axis that will extend from northern Indiana into central Ohio. As the low-level flow weakens and backs Tuesday night, snow showers will come to an end. High pressure will quickly translate across the region on Wednesday. Next short wave moving through northwest flow will bring another chance of snow showers Wednesday night into Thursday. 00Z models showing a decent spread in where the resultant surface low will track which would have an impact on how much precipitation will occur. At this point just broadbrushed chance PoPs. Another high will start to build in late in the period. It still appears that temperatures may warm up to near normal on Monday. But thereafter readings will return to below normal with the coldest readings Tuesday into Wednesday. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions will start out the TAF period. Snow across Indiana will decrease as it moves into the area and encounters dry air. Additional snow showers however will be possible later this afternoon and this evening as a cold front moves through the region and also there will be some lake enhancement as well. Winds will pick up with later today with the front and have wind gusts in later today into tonight. Cigs will lower and be generally MVFR, however some IFR cigs will also be possible. Visibilities will be reduced with snow that occurs. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Monday night into Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...Hickman SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM... AVIATION...Novak

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