Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KILN 271100
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
700 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017
Weak high pressure will move east this morning, allowing low
pressure to return, bringing showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon through tonight. After lingering showers end behind
departing low pressure on Tuesday, high pressure will provide
drier weather Tuesday night and Wednesday. Another area of low
pressure is forecast to arrive for Thursday and Friday, carrying
more showers and thunderstorms back into the weather picture.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface map has two areas of low pressure, one moving away to
the north, and the second traveling from the southwest, with a
weak ridge of high pressure wedged between the two lows. The
ridge is poised to move across the ILN area early today,
bringing a brief period of dry weather this morning.
For this afternoon, the low to the southwest will be approaching.
Showers are forecast to develop early this afternoon beginning
in southern locations. Thunderstorms will become prevalent by
evening as low level moisture and instability comes into phase
with mid level short wave energy ahead of the low.
Due to rather potent winds aloft aiding in thunderstorm
development and duration, isolated severe thunderstorms will be
possible, with large hail and damaging winds the main threat.
Well above normal temperatures will continue, with highs
from the mid 60s to low 70s expected.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
1008 mb low pressure will be moving across Southern Indiana
tonight to Ohio Tuesday morning. Thunderstorms, some possibly
severe, will continue this evening in the moist ascent ahead of
the low. As instability diminishes and thunderstorms come to an
end tonight, showers will linger through the overnight in a
regime of persistent deep moisture surrounding the low.
Showers will end from west to east on Tuesday as the low moves
east and weakens, while the mid level short wave is replaced by
a broad ridge.
Temperatures will exhibit a bit of a cooling trend as modest cold
advection occurs on a northerly low level flow behind the low.
Highs are forecast to range from the upper 50s north to upper
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Amplified upper level flow pattern with surface high pressure
building into the Great Lakes at mid week. In low level CAA pattern
temperatures will be closer to normal, with highs on Wednesday
ranging from the mid 50s northwest to the lower 60s southeast.
Upper level low to open up as it tracks from the southern plains
into the Mid MS VLY Thursday and across the Great Lakes Friday.
Latest GFS solution has adjusted now closer to ECMWF/Canadian
solutions. In this amplified pattern, upper level ridge ahead of
this low will keep the first part of Thursday dry. On the warm side
of the system, temperatures will be above normal with highs on
Thursday ranging from the upper 50s north to the upper 60s south.
Expect showers with a chance of thunderstorms to overspread ILN/s
area Thursday afternoon/evening. In southerly flow moisture
increases Thursday night into Friday. Will show a period of
categorical pops and then diminish pcpn chances Friday night with
the passage of a cold front. Temperatures to continue above normal
Friday, ranging from 60 northwest to the mid 60s southeast.
Surface high pressure to build across the region offering dry
weather Saturday and Sunday. Highs close to normal Saturday from the
upper 50s to the lower 60s and then warming about a category
Upper low approaching from the southwest to offer next chance for
precipitation later Monday into Tuesday.
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Area lies under weak high pressure situated between low
pressure systems to the north and southwest. Models have
presented a relatively good depiction of this scenario for the
last few days, lending some confidence to the forecast, though
the details like visibility and ceiling height are still going
to be tricky.
Early in the forecast, FG that has developed will impact LUK and
ILN with VLIFR, with BR lowering visbilities to MVFR at CVG and
LCK. These conditions will last through early morning. Other
TAF sites may see MVFR ceilings this morning before VFR returns
to all sites by afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms will return this afternoon and
evening with low pressure advancing from the southwest. Handled
thunderstorms with VCTS, with later amendments pinpointing
timing and duration. A period of MVFR is expected with the
thunderstorms. CVG may experience IFR ceilings near the end of
their 30 hour TAF in lingering low level moisture behind the
Winds shifting from southwest to southeast are forecast to
remain below 10 knots. Northwest winds are expected at CVG by
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible
into Tuesday morning.