Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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206 FXUS61 KILN 161912 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 312 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the region through the week. This will lead to dry conditions and slowly moderating temperatures through the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The cu field looks fairly healthy across northern and eastern portions of our area this afternoon. We are even seeing a few lake enhanced showers drifting down across northwest Ohio. These may clip our far northern areas over the next couple of hours so will go ahead and include a slight chance of sprinkles through mid to late afternoon. Otherwise, expect the cu field to dissipate as the low level flow backs and we begin to lose the daytime heating. Surface high pressure will build in from the west overnight with the axis extending along the Ohio River by morning. This will lead to clear skies and light winds overnight, allowing for good radiational cooling, especially across our south where the gradient will be the weakest. Meanwhile, the core of the coldest airmass will be shifting off to the east through the overnight hours. Thus, would expect the coldest readings across our east where lows in the mid 30s will be possible tonight and will go with a frost advisory across those areas. Elsewhere, expect lows will be mainly in the upper 30s, although some localized mid 30s will still be possible. Will go ahead and include patchy frost wording there and issue an SPS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Surface high pressure will shift off to the east east Tuesday into Tuesday night. With a dry airmass in place, expect mostly clear skies. Temperatures will begin to moderate with highs on Tuesday in the low to mid 60s. Lows Tuesday night will range from the upper 30s in the east to the lower 40s across the west. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A large area of high pressure will be positioned across the Eastern CONUS Wednesday through Saturday. Dry weather and mainly clear skies will be the result in a regime of persistent subsidence in the broad anticyclonic circulation around the high. For Sunday, a transition will begin ahead of a cold front and sharp upper trough developing to the west. Expect increasing clouds and winds Sunday, then a chance of showers Sunday night and Monday when the front is forecast to cross the region. Temperatures are forecast to be above normal through the period. Look for highs in the upper 60s Wednesday, climbing into the low to mid 70s Thursday through Sunday, before slipping back to around 70 on Monday under showers. For comparison, normal highs for the period are in the low to mid 60s. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Cu field across the area this afternoon should dissipate as we head into this evening, leaving mostly clear skies overnight. With clear skies and light winds, some valley fog will be possible. This will mainly affect KLUK where some IFR or lower vsbys will be possible late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Otherwise, high pressure will remain in place across the region through the rest of the period with VFR conditions expected. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for OHZ045-046- 054>056-063>065-073-074-080>082-088. KY...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for KYZ100. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...JGL

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