Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 222059 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 359 PM EST Thu Feb 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Multiple weather systems will move through the region into the weekend. This pattern will bring more rainfall to the area which will lead to flooding. Temperatures will also fluctuate through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Our region is currently in a precipitation lull this afternoon. This should continue into this evening. Thereafter, precipitation chances will ramp up. An embedded s/wv in a very moist southwest flow aloft will interact with a northward moving warm front overnight. A decent LLJ will develop to our southwest, and this will impinge on the warm front, producing substantial moisture convergence. As a result, showers will develop and increase from our southwest late. Models are also showing at least elevated instability, so a chance of thunderstorms is also mentioned. With PWATs forecast to approach 1.50 inches (which is typical of July and about 3 sigma values above climo) the potential for moderate to heavy rainfall exists. Points along and south of the Ohio River have already received 1 to 3 inches of rain today. Thus, any additional rainfall will likely go directly into runoff due to saturated soils, resulting in continued or renewed flooding. Based on model QPF foot prints, the threat for moderate to heavy rain may affect locations along the I-70 corridor as well. This rainfall combined with future rainfall this weekend has prompted an expansion of the flood watch in these locations. Temperatures will not change that much this evening, but then rise, especially south, as the warm front lifts north. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/... Showers and embedded thunderstorms should be ongoing over much of the region Friday morning. A cold front is forecast to move into the region from the west during the day. This boundary will intersect the northeast advancing warm front. Precipitation should taper off behind cold frontal passage while continuing near the cold front and warm fronts. Additional moderate to heavy rainfall is expected. High temperatures will range from the mid 50s northwest to the lower 70s southeast. For Friday night, the cold front will slip south of the Ohio River where it will eventually stall. There should be a lull in the precipitation threat across the north, with chances continuing along and south of the Ohio River. The cold frontal boundary will begin moving back northward as a warm front late as more s/wv energy in the midlevel ripples once again into the region. Thus, have PoPs ramping up late. Lows will range from the lower 40s northwest to the upper 50s southeast. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Anomalously strong sub tropical ridge over the southeast with a moist southwesterly flow focused into the Ohio Valley to begin the long term forecast period. An active wet weather pattern to continue into Sunday leading to a continued flood threat. Mid level shortwave and deepening surface low to eject northeast from the central plains into the Great Lakes Saturday night/Sunday. Strong low level jet of 70-80 kts will provide anomalous moisture into the area and marginal instby across the area. Moisture will pool ahead of a front moving into the area late Saturday night/early Sunday with precipitable water values approaching 1.5 inches, which is a record value for this time of year. Will continue with categorical pops Saturday night. High shear low cape severe weather setup showing a signal with Sherb 0-3km parameter Saturday night. In tightening pressure gradient will have winds gust up to 35 mph. With the front expected to sweep east through the area early Sunday a drying trend to develop. Surface high pressure will build across the Great Lakes offering dry weather from Sunday into the middle of next week. Expect early highs on Sunday with temperatures falling into the 40s and lower 50s in the afternoon. Temperatures to turn cooler but still above normal with highs Monday from the upper 40s north to the mid 50s south. Temperatures Tuesday look to be around 10 degrees above normal, with highs from the lower 50s north to the upper 50s south. Model solution differences develop at mid week regarding how fast moisture returns on the backside of retreating surface high pressure. Will limit pops low chance Wednesday afternoon south and then across the entire FA Thursday. Mild temperatures to continue with highs in the 50s Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The region is now in a lull in terms of precipitation chances as the wave of low pressure has moved off to the northeast. For the remainder of the afternoon, MVFR/IFR ceilings can be expected at the terminals. For tonight, frontal boundary to our south will begin to move north as a warm front while a cold front intersects this boundary as it approaches from the west. Deep, rich moisture will return in the southwest flow aloft along with an embedded disturbance and associated developing low level jet. This will result in an increasing threat for showers. Instability will also increase for a chance of thunderstorms. Rain will be moderate to locally heavy at times, resulting in IFR ceilings and visibilities with pockets of LIFR ceilings possible. On Friday, the warm front will lift northeast while the cold front sags southeast into our region. Showers will be ongoing during the morning (embedded thunder), which a decreasing trend in the precipitation threat behind the cold front. Will continue with IFR conditions through the morning, but as we head into the afternoon, conditions should transition to more MVFR as rain intensity diminishes and ceilings lift above a 1000 feet. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities are likely into Saturday night. MVFR ceilings may linger Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ053>056-060>065- 070>074-077>082-088. KY...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ089>100. IN...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for INZ050-058-059-066- 073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...Hickman SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Hickman

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