Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 270820 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 420 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure off the mid Atlantic coast will result in warm and humid conditions with a chance of showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. A weak cold front will move through Sunday night into Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Convectively enhanced short wave in western Kentucky early this morning will lift north northeast through the day. This along with heating will result in some showers and thunderstorms to develop, with a slightly better chance across the northern part of the forecast area. GFS MOS looked reasonable for highs.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Appears that some energy from subtropical low that will impact the southeast will shear north into the region over the weekend. This forcing will help provide a better chance for precipitation area wide, especially Saturday into Saturday evening. With the onset of any precipitation potentially earlier in the day along with more cloud cover, expect highs a bit lower than today. There could still be some storms on Sunday in the eastern counties from this sheared energy. But there also could be some showers and storms in the western counties in advance of a weak cold front. Forecast is generally closer to cooler guidance each period.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A short wave lifting northeast through the Great Lakes will result in a weak cold front pushing through the area Sunday night into Monday. Upper support is moving away from the area and instability will be decreasing as the front moves in. So chance of precipitation will be diminishing through the evening even with the front moving in. High pressure will build in later Monday and continue to extend across the area on Tuesday. This will result in slightly lower humidity along with little if any chance of rain. A deep trough will develop and then move out of the Plains late in the week. This will bring another cold front into the region with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms along it. Temperatures slightly above normal will persist.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Generally just expect some mid and high clouds across the TAF sites during the overnight hours. Although some cloud cover will be present cannot rule out some brief MVFR VSBYS at the TAF sites. At KLUK expect VSBYS to be variable between VFR and VLIFR at times. Hi res models keep slowing onset on weak shower activity across the TAF sites. Added a couple to a few hour period of VCSH to the TAFs for this morning after sunrise from southwest to northeast. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible Saturday and Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...Novak

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