Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KILN 272255
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
655 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016
Hot and humid conditions will continue through the
weekend...keeping heat index values near 100 in some areas.
Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will again be possible
through the early part of the week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
While the majority of thunderstorm activity has left area...still
monitoring the far southeast where DCAPE values remain
elevated...so still some potential for severe wind gusts with
these scattered storms. 0Overnight lows to remain quite warm
overnight...with lows in the lower 70s in the far southeast and in
the metro areas of especially Columbus and Cincinnati. Kept
overnight lows a little warmer than short term guidance.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The mid/upper level ridge again dominates the weather for
Sunday in especially the southeast...with the expectation that
daytime heat index values could approach 100 again in the
southeast forecast area with afternoon thunderstorm development
again...with enough instability and the potential for higher DCAPE
values brigning gusty winds with slow storm motion and moist
environment also brigning potential for heavy rain.
Will have to monitor closely...as if enough activity
develops...may diminish high heat index potential.
A weak shortwave will skirt to the south of the area on the back
side of the ridge on Monday...which will again serve as a focus
of thunderstorm development in the afternoon. Temperatures will
moderate some with the ridge beginning to retreat.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short wave over Hudson Bay at the beginning of the period will dig
southeast and carve out a trough across the northeast United States.
This will push a cold front through the region on Wednesday. There
is not much moisture with this front and forcing looks weak...
although cannot rule out some showers and thunderstorms in northern
counties. Warm and humid conditions will persist ahead of the front.
But a cooler and drier airmass will spread in for the rest of the
week...with temperatures at or slightly below normal.
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A line of convection will continue to progress northeastward over
the next few hours and is expected to affect mainly the western
terminals. MVFR to IFR vsbys and ceilings will be possible with
the stronger storms along with a wind shift to the W/NW. There is
lower confidence on whether the storms will hold together to reach
the Columbus terminals later this afternoon, as models remain
split on this possibility. Regardless, expect the convection to
diminish by early evening as instability wanes.
With plenty of low level moisture in place, light winds, and
skies becoming partly cloudy to mostly clear, br will be possible
overnight, especially at KCVG/KLUK/KILN. Weak high pressure over
the region will cause winds to become more northerly overnight
into Sunday. A weak boundary dropping down from the north will
allow for another chance of showers and storms Sunday afternoon,
but being so late in the period have not included this in the
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible through Wednesday...mainly in
the afternoon and evening.