Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 262331 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 731 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH THE FA THIS EVENING. DROPPED THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH AS THE SVR THREAT HAS MOVED THROUGH THAT AREA. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SVR THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE SHORT TERM. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S AGAIN FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE. A HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS CIRCULATING AROUND A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE EAST WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FRIDAY MAY RESULT IN A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY AIDED BY COOLING ALOFT AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO ERODE. ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHED SOUTHEASTWARD TO ILN BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LINGER TO THE SOUTH. WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. READINGS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. && .AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION WILL POTENTIALLY AFFECT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO IFR. BUT FELT THAT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE STORMS WAS MORE LIKELY. SOME SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER AFTER 00Z. BUT AT THIS POINT THE POTENTIAL WAS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT HAVE FURTHER MENTION WITHIN THE TAFS. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT. SIGNALS ARE MIXED ON WHETHER THAT WILL MANIFEST ITSELF AS CLOUDS OR MIST OR BOTH. FORECAST CONTINUES WITH STRATUS AROUND MVFR/IFR THRESHOLD. EXCEPTION IS FOR CINCINNATI TERMINALS WHERE MIST/FOG MAY BE A BETTER POSSIBILITY. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM...CONIGLIO AVIATION...

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