Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 251727 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 127 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will keep dry weather over the region through Wednesday morning. Low pressure traveling across northern Ohio will bring showers Wednesday night into Thursday morning. High pressure and a dry airmass will return for Thursday night and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Some mid and high level cloudiness will continue to spill down into the area through this afternoon in northwest flow aloft. This combined with some weak low level CAA, should help keep highs in the mid 50s north to lower 60s in the far south. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Tonight, mid and high clouds will continue to linger across the region. The ECMWF develops some light showers and north western sections tonight as it increases isentropic lift across a developing warm front. It is the outlier, so will keep the fa dry. With some cloud cover tonight, temperatures should be a little warmer, only dropping into the upper 30s to lower 40s. On Wednesday, the H5 s/w will swing from the plain into the Ohio Valley. It will push a compact low pressure center eastward with it. The fa will be warm sectored and should be dry on Wednesday. There will be a large variance in highs across the region. Temperatures across the extreme nrn counties of West Central and Central Ohio will only reach the mid 50s, but was you head south, temperatures will warm quickly. Highs in nrn KY will be around 70. Pcpn with the low will finally reach the area Wednesday night. Latest run of the models is showing very limited instability, so have backed off on the mention of thunder. Also, it appears that the models are showing a weakening trend with the pcpn as it works e Wednesday night. Kept likely pops across the north, but tightened up the gradient and lower PoPs across the srn counties to 20 to 30 percent. This system is looking more progressive, so tighten up the backedge of the pcpn, moving it e of the region by 18Z Thursday. Temperatures will recover some, reaching the mid 50s in the north and the lower 60s in the south. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Surface high pressure to build in at the end of the week, offering a return to dry weather conditions. Highs On Friday to range from the upper 50s north to the mid 60s south. Model solns showing differences in strength and timing with the next system moving through the Great Lakes next weekend. Warm air advection pattern develops with best moisture and lift north of ILN/s FA. Have limited pop to slight chance north and east with low chance far northeast Saturday afternoon. Temperatures to warm some with highs ranging from the lower 60s north to near 70 south. Next quick moving wave to track through the Great Lakes Sunday. Have limited any mention of precipitation to a slight chance of a shower north Sunday afternoon. Highs Sunday from the upper 50s north to the middle 60s south. Surface high pressure and cooler temperatures for next Monday. Highs are expected to range from the mid 50s northeast to the lower 60s southwest. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Surface high pressure will push off to the east tonight. In northwest flow aloft, expect to see some mid and high level clouds continue to stream in across the region tonight into Wednesday. The combination of the increasing clouds and perhaps surface winds staying up a bit overnight should help limit fog development. Generally expect VFR conditions through the TAF period but suppose some patchy valley fog is not out of the question depending on just how fast the mid level clouds thicken up later tonight. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible from Wednesday night through Thursday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio/Sites NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...JGL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.