Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 262005 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 405 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure and a cold front will approach the region on Thursday and push through Thursday night into Friday morning, bringing showers with embedded thunderstorms. High pressure will gradually build in for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Increasing clouds and moisture overnight with the approach of vigorous shortwave over the upper MS Valley and into the western Ohio Valley overnight. Southerly flow will allow for increasing Precipitable Water values into the western forecast area overnight, with leading edge scattered showers reaching the western forecast area by daybreak. Overnight lows tonight will be more seasonable in especially the western area where reach to near 70 to low 70s with mid 60s still in the east on the back side of the departing high. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... For Thursday, Decent ll shear but not a lot of support from an instability standpoint, along with plenty of cloud cover and relatively unimpressive lapse rates. So while the lingering lower level support and some of the CAMS indicating surface low tracking right along Ohio river, can`t rule out the potential for isolated severe storms with damaging winds, not as much of a concern or confidence as previous forecast. However, ample moisture and several hours of high precipitation potential with PW values approaching max for this time of year still yield a heavy rain potential. Concern is especially in the south with areas more vulnerable due to recent flash flooding. Ample cloud cover and precipitation will limit highs on Thursday so continued to lean on the cooler side of guidance. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Shortwave trof to drop southeast through the Great Lakes into the upper Ohio Valley Friday. This will keep the threat of showers and thunderstorms Friday into Friday night. Clouds and precipitation will keep temperatures around 5 degrees below normal with highs on Friday in the upper 70s to near 80. Highly amplified mid/upper level flow pattern with ridge over the west and trof over the east. This will place the Ohio Valley in a northwest flow pattern this weekend. Surface high pressure of Canadian origin will build southeast across the Great. This high will offer dry conditions and seasonably cool temperatures. Temperatures Saturday and Sunday look to be 5 to 10 degrees below normal, with highs generally in the mid and upper 70s. As the surface high slide off to the east dry conditions will persist into next week and temperatures will moderate. Expect readings closer to seasonal normals through mid week. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 09-10z VFR conditions before showers move into the area. Timing and exact locations/restrictions not confident at this time to introduce visibility or ceiling restrictions, but some possibility of mvfr visibility mainly after 12z with some potential for heavy rain mainly after the 15z timeframe. For the CVG extended TAF, some potential for MVFR ceilings after 00z Fri. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible into Thursday night. MVFR ceilings will be possible Thursday night into Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDR NEAR TERM...JDR SHORT TERM...JDR LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...JDR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.