Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 161822 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 122 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary stalled to our south will push north as a warm front today, allowing for milder temperatures and a chance for showers. Low pressure and a trailing cold front will push through the region on Tuesday, offering more showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. In the wake of this front, there will be a return to more seasonable temperatures for midweek with warmer air to return by the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Not many changes to forecast this morning as weak isentropic upglide across the area has allowed a weak band of returns to push north with light rain or drizzle being reported. This is not surprising as the 12z KILN sounding shows a nice dry layer at 600 mb. During the day today a warm front will push north across the area allowing temperatures to rise to around 50 across the south and mid 40s across the north. To put this in perspective normal highs for this time of year are in the upper 30s. The next upper level disturbance will then approach the area this evening. PREV DISCUSSION-> Weak isentropic lift pivoting north through ILN/s FA early this morning. Best coverage across the north, so have a mention of chance pops early and with temperatures at or below freezing have a mention of very light freezing rain or freezing drizzle. Mid level and sfc low to eject northeast across the Central Plains today. Ahead if this system, mid level ridge to build over the Ohio valley today which should active to limit pcpn coverage. Highs today to range from the lower 40s north to the mid/upper 50s south. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mid level and sfc low to eject northeast from the Central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley tonight and across the Great Lakes Tuesday. Expect an enhanced threat for pcpn developing night with nose of 50 kt low level jet and axis of deep moisture coming into play. Have categorical pops developing overnight. Elevated instability develops into the west late, so also have a mention of thunder. Expect non-diurnal temperatures tonight, with lows from the lower 40s north to the lower/mid 50s south. Surface cold front to push through Tuesday afternoon with a continued threat of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm, especially over the southeast. On the warm side of the system, expect highs on Tuesday to be around 20 degrees above normal, ranging from the mid 50s northwest to the mid 60s southeast. In split flow pattern a second mid/upper level s/w to pivot thru the Great Lakes Tuesday/Tuesday night. This will keep the threat of a shower across mainly the northern counties into early Wednesday. Cooler temperatures Tuesday night with lows from the mid 30s northwest to the mid 40s southeast. Highs on Wednesday to be cooler but still running 7 to 10 degrees above normal. Expect readings to range from the lower 40s nw to near 50 se. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Trough will be moving out at the beginning of the period. High pressure will then build in and quickly head off to the east. Southerly flow on the back side of the high combined with rising upper heights will result in much above normal temperatures. Tail end of a short wave lifting north through the Mississippi Valley will bring some showers to the area on Friday. Approaching low pressure will result in more showers on Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Warm front has now pushed north of the TAF sites this afternoon with some breaks in the low clouds across northern Kentucky. Latest GFS and NAM forecast soundings keep the low clouds in across all the terminals but the low cloud clearing line will be close to reaching KCVG, KLUK, and KILN. The SREF and HRRRTL indicate the clearing line reaching the terminals mentioned above. The GFS and NAM guidance follow suite with the GFS/NAM forecast soundings. For now have kept TAFS locked in with the low clouds. Later this afternoon into evening an upper level low will eject northeast and approach Wisconsin by Tuesday morning. Out ahead of the low a weak band of PV (lift) will approach the area with a band of showers. The ARW, NMM, HRRR, and NSSL WRF are all in fairly good agreement with precipitation affecting our western TAF sites by 0z Tuesday. The band will then push east across the TAF sites Tuesday morning with a brief break in precip possible. After the break a surface low will approach from the southwest bringing more showers. Looking at some of the high res models thunder looks possible as a ribbon of instability moves up with the surface low. For now have left the mention of thunder out of the TAFs as confidence remains low. Also at this time a strong LLJ will move across the terminals bringing some LLWS. Finally high res models also indicate a fog potential mostly north and west of the terminals closer to the warm front Tuesday morning. This makes sense. Have left mention of fog out of TAFs for now. During the day Tuesday the surface low will track north and east of the area with a surface cold front slowly making its way into the area. The front will be slow to clear the area though and wont clear the TAF sites until Tuesday afternoon. Behind the front some gusty winds will be possible as hinted at using NAM and GFS momentum transfer. The GFS is again higher than the NAM indicating gusts up to 25 kts possible while the NAM shows closer to 20 kts. Have kept wind gusts closer to NAM values. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities through Wednesday. MVFR/ IFR ceilings are again possible Thursday afternoon through Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines/AR NEAR TERM...Haines/AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM... AVIATION...Haines

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