Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KILN 161822
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
122 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017
A frontal boundary stalled to our south will push north as a warm
front today, allowing for milder temperatures and a chance for
showers. Low pressure and a trailing cold front will push through
the region on Tuesday, offering more showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm. In the wake of this front, there will be a return
to more seasonable temperatures for midweek with warmer air to
return by the end of the week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Not many changes to forecast this morning as weak isentropic
upglide across the area has allowed a weak band of returns to
push north with light rain or drizzle being reported. This is not
surprising as the 12z KILN sounding shows a nice dry layer at 600
mb. During the day today a warm front will push north across the
area allowing temperatures to rise to around 50 across the south
and mid 40s across the north. To put this in perspective normal
highs for this time of year are in the upper 30s. The next upper
level disturbance will then approach the area this evening.
Weak isentropic lift pivoting north through ILN/s FA early this
morning. Best coverage across the north, so have a mention of
chance pops early and with temperatures at or below freezing have
a mention of very light freezing rain or freezing drizzle.
Mid level and sfc low to eject northeast across the Central Plains
today. Ahead if this system, mid level ridge to build over the
Ohio valley today which should active to limit pcpn coverage.
Highs today to range from the lower 40s north to the mid/upper
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mid level and sfc low to eject northeast from the Central Plains
into the upper Mississippi Valley tonight and across the Great Lakes
Expect an enhanced threat for pcpn developing night with nose of
50 kt low level jet and axis of deep moisture coming into play.
Have categorical pops developing overnight. Elevated instability
develops into the west late, so also have a mention of thunder.
Expect non-diurnal temperatures tonight, with lows from the lower
40s north to the lower/mid 50s south.
Surface cold front to push through Tuesday afternoon with a
continued threat of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm, especially
over the southeast. On the warm side of the system, expect highs
on Tuesday to be around 20 degrees above normal, ranging from the
mid 50s northwest to the mid 60s southeast.
In split flow pattern a second mid/upper level s/w to pivot thru the
Great Lakes Tuesday/Tuesday night. This will keep the threat of
a shower across mainly the northern counties into early
Wednesday. Cooler temperatures Tuesday night with lows from the
mid 30s northwest to the mid 40s southeast. Highs on Wednesday to
be cooler but still running 7 to 10 degrees above normal. Expect
readings to range from the lower 40s nw to near 50 se.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Trough will be moving out at the beginning of the period. High
pressure will then build in and quickly head off to the east.
Southerly flow on the back side of the high combined with rising
upper heights will result in much above normal temperatures. Tail
end of a short wave lifting north through the Mississippi Valley
will bring some showers to the area on Friday. Approaching low
pressure will result in more showers on Sunday.
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Warm front has now pushed north of the TAF sites this afternoon
with some breaks in the low clouds across northern Kentucky.
Latest GFS and NAM forecast soundings keep the low clouds in
across all the terminals but the low cloud clearing line will be
close to reaching KCVG, KLUK, and KILN. The SREF and HRRRTL
indicate the clearing line reaching the terminals mentioned above.
The GFS and NAM guidance follow suite with the GFS/NAM forecast
soundings. For now have kept TAFS locked in with the low clouds.
Later this afternoon into evening an upper level low will eject
northeast and approach Wisconsin by Tuesday morning. Out ahead of
the low a weak band of PV (lift) will approach the area with a
band of showers. The ARW, NMM, HRRR, and NSSL WRF are all in
fairly good agreement with precipitation affecting our western TAF
sites by 0z Tuesday. The band will then push east across the TAF
sites Tuesday morning with a brief break in precip possible. After
the break a surface low will approach from the southwest bringing
more showers. Looking at some of the high res models thunder
looks possible as a ribbon of instability moves up with the
surface low. For now have left the mention of thunder out of the
TAFs as confidence remains low. Also at this time a strong LLJ
will move across the terminals bringing some LLWS. Finally high
res models also indicate a fog potential mostly north and west of
the terminals closer to the warm front Tuesday morning. This
makes sense. Have left mention of fog out of TAFs for now.
During the day Tuesday the surface low will track north and east
of the area with a surface cold front slowly making its way into
the area. The front will be slow to clear the area though and wont
clear the TAF sites until Tuesday afternoon. Behind the front some
gusty winds will be possible as hinted at using NAM and GFS
momentum transfer. The GFS is again higher than the NAM indicating
gusts up to 25 kts possible while the NAM shows closer to 20 kts.
Have kept wind gusts closer to NAM values.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities through
Wednesday. MVFR/ IFR ceilings are again possible Thursday
afternoon through Saturday.