Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 231725 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 125 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS...AND GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES. FORECAST HIGHS LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON MORNING SOUNDING. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE ILN CWA WILL REMAIN STUCK RATHER FIRMLY BETWEEN TWO NNE-MOVING STREAMS OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPREAD A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVER EASTERN OHIO ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CIRRUS FROM WHATEVER IS LEFT OF A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS COULD MOVE OVER INDIANA DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. IF NEITHER OF THESE SOURCES OF CLOUDS END UP MOVING OVER THE ILN CWA...IT MAY WELL REMAIN COMPLETELY CLEAR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AT SOME POINT...THINGS MAY MOISTEN UP JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A FEW CUMULUS TO DEVELOPMENT...BUT RH PROFILES DO NOT SUGGEST THIS IS LIKELY UNTIL THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AT THE VERY EARLIEST. AS OPPOSED TO THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH A WARMER STARTING POINT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY A BIT WARMER ON TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER INCREASE OF A FEW DEGREES IN HIGH TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY. THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...MODEL 850MB/925MB TEMPS ARE RELATIVELY STAGNANT. ALSO...THE SURFACE FLOW PATTERN IS LIGHT AND EASTERLY...NEUTRAL TO VERY SLIGHTLY COOL IN TERMS OF ADVECTION. THUS...THE MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN PRETTY STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME MOISTURE POSSIBLY TRYING TO WORK UP FROM THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A S/W DIGGING UNDERNEATH THE ESTABLISHED UPPER RIDGE. HAVE KEPT A DRY FCST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE INTO LOW CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY. AS THE AIRMASS SLOWLY MODIFIES...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ERRED ON THE WARM SIDE OF DAYTIME HIGHS AND THE COOL SIDE OF NIGHTTIME LOWS GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS. THIS STILL PUTS TEMPS ABOUT 7-8 DEG ABOVE NORMAL ON HIGHS AND 4-6 DEG ABOVE ON LOWS. GUIDANCE REALLY ONLY HAD A 2-4 DEG RANGE ON BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD...INDICATING FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN AND THE FCST TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. COULD EVENTUALLY BE A FEW CUMULUS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE CINCINNATI AREA. EXPECT LOCALIZED FOG TO AFFECT KLUK OVERNIGHT OTHERWISE VFR CONTINUES WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HATZOS NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...HATZOS LONG TERM...FRANKS AVIATION...

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