Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 280601
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
201 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016
An upper level low will work into the region on Wednesday and
influence the weather pattern through the remainder of the week.
This feature will allow for cool and cloudy conditions with
scattered shower activity.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Upper level low centered over northern Michigan to drop slowly
south into the Ohio Valley. Skies which have been mostly clear
through the evening will see an increase in clouds overnight.
Any precipitation will hold off until close to sunrise. Have made
only a minor change, slowing up precipitation with light showers
developing into the northwest toward sunrise. With few clouds and
dry air in place, temperatures will continue to drop off and then
level out late with increase in clouds. Have lows in the upper 40s
to lower 50s.
Clear to mostly clear skies will give way to an increase in clouds
overnight as an upper level low approaches the area. Precipitation will
hold off most of the night, however some light shower activity
will move into northwestern portions of the forecast area by
morning. Although initially there will be dry air in place, expect
an increase in moisture and lift late in the overnight hours.
Expect a quick drop off in temperatures for the first half of the
night with less cloud cover and drier air. Went on the cooler side
of guidance for low temperatures overnight.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Increased precipitation chances for the day on Wednesday as the
upper level low pressure system approaches the area. Showers with
isolated embedded thunder is expected. An initial push will move
through during the morning and into the afternoon with additional
scattered shower activity behind this first push of precipitation.
Precipitation during this time will be somewhat diurnal with less
coverage at night and more during the day. Cloudy and cool
conditions will be quite prevalent through this time with high
temperatures in the 60s and lows in the middle 40s to middle 50s.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Closed upper low will be working gradually northward to SE Indiana
on Friday. Showers will be likely in the moist and weakly unstable
circulation around the upper low and its cold pool aloft, aided by
low level convergence associated with an inverted surface trough. As
the upper low continues to exhibit slow movement on a path to the
central Great Lakes, a good chance of showers will persist through
When the low lifts farther to the northeast on Sunday, decreasing
moisture and forcing will be evident. There will be a slight chance
of showers in shallow residual moisture. Dry weather appears in the
forecast for Monday and Tuesday under high pressure at the surface
Expect below normal highs in the 60s Friday and Saturday under
clouds, precip, and low geopotential heights. A rebound back into
the 70s should be noted by Tuesday in a regime of warm advection
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --A large scale upper level low will dig southeast into the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley through the TAF period.
Quiet conditions will start the forecast, but will quickly ramp up
between 09Z and 15Z. Jet energy rotating around the digging upper
level low will combine with some low level convergence above the
surface to generate showers and thunderstorms. Given the current
dry conditions across the region, and the elevated nature of the
thunderstorms, ceilings should stay VFR for the most part.
However, moderate to perhaps local heavy showers will lower
visibilities at least into the MVFR category with some pockets of
IFR visibilities possible where heavier showers/storms occur.
Best chance for thunderstorms this morning will occur at the KDAY,
KCMH, and KLCK terminals. This is also where a brief period of IFR
visibilities may occur should the showers/storms become heavy in
nature. KCVG, KLUK, and KILN will also see some showers/MVFR
visibilities, but the threat for thunder may be a little less, so
have gone with VCTS/CB at these locations.
Operational models and high resolution models indicate that there
will be two waves of precipitation today. The first wave will
rotate east/northeast through early afternoon. Thereafter, surface
low pressure and a cold front is forecast to push east through the
region this afternoon and evening. The front will be accompanied
with another round of showers and thunderstorms. Again, ceilings
should remain mostly VFR but visibilities will fluctuate between
MVFR and IFR in heavier showers/storms.
For tonight, center of the upper level low is expected to drift
southward toward KSDF while the surface low rotates east/southeast
toward south central Ohio/eastern Kentucky. Models suggest that
our region will be in a lull in terms of precipitation as deep
moisture and lift will be to our east and west overnight. However,
with winds becoming light to calm, and with cooling, low clouds
and fog may develop, especially between 06Z and 12Z time frame.
Will be looking at this period in more detail with the next TAF
OUTLOOK...IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibilities possible Thursday
morning. MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible with showers
Thursday afternoon through Saturday.
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