Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 061725 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 125 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO EASTERN AREAS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK CONTINUING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN MOSTLY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SOME RAIN MAKING IT INTO NEWARK. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT MAKE IT A LITTLE FARTHER WEST TODAY BUT WILL FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN CONFINED TO OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES. LATEST KILN SOUNDING SHOWS PWATS RIGHT AROUND 1.33" THIS MORNING WITH 850 TEMPERATURES AT 15 DEGREES C. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY CHANGES WHERE TO BRING MAX TEMPS DOWN A BIT AND MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS. PREV DISCUSSION-> UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN DRIFTING SLOWLY NNE INTO EASTERN KY WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT ACRS UPR OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ACRS THE EAST TODAY. EXPECT A MORE CLOUDS IN THE EAST WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S FAR EAST TO THE MID/UPR 80S WEST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WITH UPR LOW OPENING UP AND LIFTING OUT TO THE NE THIS EVENING... ILN/S FA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS TONIGHT. SO WILL END ANY LINGERING POPS IN THE FAR EAST EARLY AND ALLOW FOR A DRY PERIOD OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID/UPR 60S. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MID LEVEL TROF SWEEPING ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY/TUE NIGHT AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT PUSHING INTO ILN/S FA TUE NIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO EXTREME NW OHIO BY TUESDAY EVENING. AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH 35-40 KT 8H JET. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW TYPICAL BIAS WITH CAPES OVER 3000 J/KG DUE TO WIDESPREAD SFC TD/S OF 75 OR MORE. GFS INSTBY LOOKS MORE REASONABLE WITH BLYR CAPES VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. PW/S INCREASE TO 2 TO 2.25 INCHES TUESDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WITH MOIST SOUNDINGS AND WARM MID LEVELS...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER BUT ISOLD STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS THREAT...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO PRODUCT. WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL ACRS NW BY LATE TUESDAY AFTN INTO TUE EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE LKLY POPS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF WESTERLIES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES WITH FRONT STALLING OUT E-W JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACRS SOUTHERN OHIO CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS NEXT LOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS. TEMP WISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM NEAR 80 NW TO THE MID 80S SE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE SUPPRESSED...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S NW TO THE LOWER/MID 80S SE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH A QUASI- STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THURSDAY. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS BUT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. 12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS STRENGTHENING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM AND GENERATE MODERATE INSTABILITY. SO EVEN WEAK FORCING...WHICH CANNOT BE RESOLVED WELL THAT FAR OUT IN TIME...COULD PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION. THUS CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALBEIT LOWER THAN MID WEEK...WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORMED NEAR NEWARK THIS MORNING HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. NOT EXPECTING MUCH REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. OVERNIGHT... LOWER VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KLUK BUT A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HELP TO KEEP WINDS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. THIS WILL HELP TO MITIGATE SOME OF THE RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING INSTABILITY STARTING AROUND NOON OUT AHEAD OF A POTENTIAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. HIGH RES MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE LINE WITH THE LINE ARRIVING BETWEEN 1 AND 4 PM AT DAYTON AND THEN PUSHING THROUGH CVG AN HOUR OR TWO LATER. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER THE LINE WILL HOLD COMPLETELY TOGETHER AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE NAM AND GFS ARE ALSO INDICATING MVFR/ IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVERHEAD. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT AS A VCTS. LATER TAF PACKAGES WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THIS. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TUESDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAINES/AR NEAR TERM...HAINES/AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM... AVIATION...HAINES

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