Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 091801 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 101 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LEAD TO OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A SFC TROF ACROSS THE NORTH AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY/CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 30. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... TUESDAY NIGHT THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SNOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS TO EDGE OFF TO THE EAST. VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER THE HUDSON BAY ALLOWING LOW LEVEL WINDS TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY AND PARALLEL TO LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL START LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA WITH BANDING FORECASTED TO SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY 850 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP TO NEAR 16 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOWER 20S WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL FINALLY START TO DIE DOWN A BIT AND TURN WESTERLY HELPING TO TAPER OFF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS EVEN COLDER AS THE BEST AGEOSTROPHIC CONVERGENCE APPROACHES THE AREA ALLOWING LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ALSO REMAINS AROUND -18 DEGREES WHICH WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND 20 DEGREES. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SOME PEAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ANOTHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CANADIAN PROVINCES. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN STARTING THE PERIOD OUT WITH A LINGERING LOW LEVEL FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BUILD IN ENOUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT TO BRING AN END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL ONLY MAKE THE LOWER 20S AND WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO 5-15 DEGREES. EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THEIR DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF UPPER LEVEL LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE ERN U.S. H5 TROF FRIDAY. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE STRONGEST WITH THE SYSTEM BRINGING A GOOD SWATH OF SNOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO LIMIT PCPN SOUTH OF AN ADVANCING CDFNT...WAITING UNTIL AFTER FROPA TO CREATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THE GEM HEMISPHERIC LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION BUT IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE SYSTEM. TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS AND ADDED A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW TO THE REGION FRIDAY. DIDNT GO TOO HIGH WITH THE POPS YET. DESPITE WHAT HAPPENS FRIDAY...ALL MODELS DROP MORE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION. BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ENUF TO CUT THE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKES. FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF H5 ENERGY DROPS OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF ARE DIFFERENT ON THEIR TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE PCPN. COVERED THE SYSTEM WITH CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORNING LOWS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...BUT WARM INTO THE 20S. OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAT SITES. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITIES TO KDAY...KCMH...AND KLCK. ELSEWHERE...DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WITH PERHAPS POCKETS OF IFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. FOR TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WILL DIG SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. BEFORE THEN...FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A RELATIVE LULL IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. THEREAFTER...SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH AN OCCASIONAL LOWER IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. ON WEDNESDAY...EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES WEST. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ046- 053>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>100. IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR INZ058- 059-066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAINES NEAR TERM...HAINES/HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HAINES LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...HICKMAN

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