Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 291744 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 144 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A STRONG UPPER LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...WITH A DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS TODAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY WITH A LAYER OF DEEPER MOISTURE PROVIDING ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THIS IS ALSO WHERE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SFC TROUGH MOVING INTO THIS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY. A DISTURBANCE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO HELP PRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF ANY FORCING SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ON THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF A H5 LOW...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY KICKS OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND ROTATE NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND THE SRN STREAM H5 FLOW RUNS THRU THE DEEP SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT FEEL THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPENS AND SHARPENS THE TROF OVER THE FA. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SWAPPED SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF NOW LINGERS THE H5 TROF DEEPER AND LONGER THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN A LITTLE MORE PCPN PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROFS LIFTS E. BY MONDAY...THE S/W TROF HAS LIFTED NE OF THE REGION...SO LEFT MONDAY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE HIGHS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT EITHER SIDE OF 80 THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA TO THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND EMBEDDED FEATURES WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...A WEAK SFC TROF IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS AREA MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BY LATE EVENING...SHOWERS SHOULD WANE AND THE SFC TROF WEAKER...LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT FOR ALL LOCATIONS. LIGHT WINDS AND SOME POCKETS OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MAY BRING SOME MVFR VSBYS TO THE NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS OF KLUK...KILN AND KLCK. ON WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TOWARD PEAK HEATING. IT WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CONSIDERABLE CUMULUS FIELD...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER DURING THE PEAK HEATING. BEST COVERAGE APPEARS SLATED FOR THE NRN TAF SITES OF KDAY..KCMH...AND KLCK. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE AFTER 18Z. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LATTO NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/LATTO SHORT TERM...LATTO LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...HICKMAN

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.