Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 282124 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 424 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF COLUMBUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE AN INITIAL DROP THIS EVENING... MORE SO IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHTER...AND THEN LIKELY STEADY OUT OR PERHAPS EVEN RISE A DEGREE OR TWO.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL STRENGTHEN SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE JET WEAKENS SOME ON SUNDAY BUT THE AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING GOOD WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL RESULT IN QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER. IN ADDITION... SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY. IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER THIS WILL BE LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT SHIFT NORTHWARD. CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL INCREASE WITH TIME. IT IS RECOGNIZED THAT THIS COULD BE A TRACE EVENT FOR MANY PLACES. SO HAVE LIMITED POPS TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE SUNDAY AND THE INCREASED LIFT WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL BUMP UP THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN FURTHER BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A MORE COHERENT BAND OF RAIN SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY SO POPS REMAIN HIGHEST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST HIGHS FOR SATURDAY HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE MOS CONSENSUS. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY FALL IN READINGS SATURDAY EVENING...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. IT SHOULD BE QUITE MILD ON SUNDAY. BUT A SHARP COOL DOWN WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT COOLER BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. DUE TO THIS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NW TO SE AND THEREFORE EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE TEENS ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO THE MIDDLE 20S ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY HOWEVER A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY DO NOT EXPECT A LARGE RISE IN TEMPERATURES. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE FOR THE LATER PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS WITH THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS CONTINUED TO CLOSELY FOLLOW THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS SOLUTION HAS PRECIPITATION EXITING THE AREA BY THE EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND BRING A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH WITH THE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY SYSTEM THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THERE ARE STILL A FEW MVFR CIGS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA BUT FOR THE MOST PART WE ARE DEALING WITH A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK THIS AFTERNOON. A FAIR AMOUNT OF RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR...BUT MUCH OF THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE REACHING THE GROUND. THAT BEING SAID...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF AN IMPACT IF ANY ON AVIATION. EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ADVECT UP INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND A LOWERING OF THE CLOUD DECK WITH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE KCVG TAF...LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO SATURATE WITH SOME IFR CIGS AND LOWER VSBYS LIKELY DEVELOPING. OUTLOOK...IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...JGL

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