Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 282352 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 752 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Weak surface low pressure and a frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary over the central Ohio Valley through Saturday night. As these features interact with waves of energy aloft and a persistent muggy airmass, showers and thunderstorms will be possible at times through the weekend. High pressure will bring drier conditions for Monday and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Another round of light rain will clip the southeastern part of the ILN CWA this afternoon and push out of the area early this evening. Rainfall rates have not been impressive over the last several hours, and there has been very little if any thunder with this afternoon`s activity. Have therefore opted to cancel the flash flood watch. There have been some pulsy surface-based showers/storms popping up across the region over the past few hours, but the individual cells will not last very long and this diurnal activity is expected to wane towards sunset. Most models have our area dry for the overnight, but the main question will be how much cloud cover will stick around. Satellite shows the clouds starting to thin out across our west, and there is some clearing over Indiana now that will be moving into our west. With abundant low level moisture, there will likely be some stratus that develops overnight. How expansive it may become is still uncertain. If the stratus doesn`t become too prevalent, fog could be an issue, especially for areas that saw rainfall since last night. For now have put patchy fog in the wx grids to account for this possibility, but evening shift will be monitoring. Lows tonight will range from mid 60s north to near 70 in the south. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Lingering weak surface low and frontal boundary over the region will make for an unsettled weather pattern for Friday and Saturday. As a broad upper trough slides over the Ohio Valley, these surface features will interact with ripples of mid level energy to generate showers and thunderstorms at times. Best chances will be in conjunction with daytime instability both Friday and Saturday. With only weak synoptic forcing and largely unimpressive wind shear, the unorganized convection will be mostly mesoscale driven. Have therefore blanketed the area with chance or slight chance POPs, highest during the peak heating hours both days. High temperatures for Friday and Saturday are forecast to remain a few degrees below normal in the low to mid 80s due to clouds and precip. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Weak frontal boundary will be moving through on Sunday. Moisture will be limited with this feature and have only a slight chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. High pressure and dry conditions are expected for Monday into Tuesday across the region. Some model solutions are showing a complex of storms working down into portions of the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The best chance of precipitation with this appears to be across western portions of the area. There have been some run to run inconsistencies and the GFS is maintaining a dry forecast during this time, therefore limited any precipitation chances to the chance category at this time. The 12z ECMWF has come in drier for Wednesday night into Thursday, which better corresponds with the GFS. Due to this went with a dry forecast to only a slight chance of storms during this time. Better chances of precipitation look to hold off until after the end of the long term period on Friday as a frontal boundary moves through the region. High temperatures will generally be in the 80s with low temperatures in the 60s to around 70. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Widely scattered SHRA/TS is expected to weaken this evening with loss of diurnal heating. After activity dissipates, main concern for overnight period is BR/FG development, which is expected after 06z. Uncertainty exists in how cloud cover will evolve overnight, especially in wake of evening convection, but expect that enough radiational cooling will combine with very moist low levels to allow for MVFR VSBYS, with IFR VSBYs or lower possible for southern terminals. MVFR CIGs may also develop toward the latter part of the overnight period, especially for KCVG and KLUK. For Friday, the region will again be in a weakly forced and unstable environment, leading to the potential for afternoon SHRA/TS. Without focused forcing or a clear boundary across the area, confidence remains low on timing and location of potential activity. Nevertheless, still anticipate some development across the area during the afternoon hours. Calm winds tonight will be mainly light and variable Friday. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Friday through Saturday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kurz NEAR TERM...Kurz SHORT TERM...Kurz LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...KC

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