Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 200243 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 943 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THEN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION AT MIDWEEK BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... A SHALLOW AREA OF SATURATION...NEAR 900MB-875MB...HAS BEEN PRESENT FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. THE 00Z KILN SOUNDING TONIGHT SHOWS MUCH OF THE SAME...WITH THIS MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A VERY SHARP INVERSION. THE ONLY EROSION OF THE CLOUD LAYER HAS BEEN ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA. FROM A METEOROLOGICAL STANDPOINT...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME CLEARING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS APPEARS LIKELY IN THE NORTHWESTERN ILN CWA. THERE ARE ALSO SIGNS OF SOME DISSIPATION SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. HOWEVER...IN TERMS OF PUTTING A FORECAST TOGETHER...THE HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM (WHICH WILL PASS COMFORTABLY SOUTH OF THE AREA TOMORROW) ARE ALREADY MOVING IN. THUS...EVEN WHERE SOME SLIGHT CLEARING OCCURS IN THE LOW LEVELS...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE. THIS MAY BE A FEW TOO MANY WORDS TO DESCRIBE WHAT IS ESSENTIALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE. VERY FEW CHANGES WERE NECESSARY FOR THE GRIDS THIS EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION > WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. 12Z ILN SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION AROUND 880 MB. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK FLOW...EXPECT THAT CLOUDS WILL HANG ON OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS ACRS THE FAR SRN COUNTIES BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... MID LEVEL S/W RIDGE PASSES EAST WITH FLOW BACKING AHD OF SRN SYSTEM. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WITH SFC TROF AND DEEP MOISTURE STAYING TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF ILN/S FA. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE A DRY FCST FOR SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS MAY IMPROVE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY LOOK TO BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO NEAR 40 SOUTH. MID LEVEL FLOW AGAIN BECOMES WESTERLY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WAA CLOUDS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WAA BUT CONTINUED CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER/MID 40S SOUTH. IN SPLIT FLOW REGIME THE MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS SUNDAY NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT DRY. IN WAA REGIME WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND WIND...LOWS LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY NIGHTS LOWS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME RAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS A FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF INDICATES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND SLOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE LEANS TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE ALSO HINTED AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE WAVE. RAIN SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AND REMAIN IN PLACE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. DRYING IS EXPECTED BY LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VERY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...AND THE PERSISTENT LAYER OF MVFR CLOUDS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR UP ANY TIME SOON. THIS FORECAST WILL REMAIN FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC WITH CEILINGS...GENERALLY IN THE 2000-2500 FOOT RANGE...BUT POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE 1200-2000 FOOT RANGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SATURDAY MORNING. SOME MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED...AND AN IFR VISIBILITY AT DAYTON APPEARS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION AND WINDY CONDITIONS. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...SHOBE2 AVIATION...HATZOS

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