Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 282347 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 747 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...CONTINUING THE CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... WITH WEAK FORCING AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SHOWERS HAVE YET TO POP THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR TRENDS AND ADJUST THE POPS ACCORDINGLY. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST COAST. SLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL PULL MORE UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION. THERE ARE NUMEROUS DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR TONIGHT. MOST OF THE LARGER SCALE MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING OR KEEP ISOLATED CONVECTION GOING ALL NIGHT LONG. DECIDED TO KEEP MUCH OF THE NIGHT DRY...BUT BROUGHT SOME 20 POPS INTO THE SW CORNER OF THE FA AROUND 12Z. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID 60S...WITH A FEW RURAL LOCATIONS MAKING THE LOWER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THE BROAD SW FLOW CONTINUES ON FRIDAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THE FORCING LOOKS TO BE BROAD AND EQUAL ACROSS THE FA...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO GIVE ANY ONE LOCATION A HIGHER POP. BEST TIMING WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT CANT RULE IT OUT IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO GO WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE POP. POPS SHOULD DROP A LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT...DUE TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE...BUT WILL NOT GO DRY FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE RAPIDLY IN COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT THE CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE NW BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND HIGH CHANCE IN THE SE. THE FRONT DROPS DOWN INTO THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT...SO INCREASED POPS A LITTLE. WENT WITH THE BETTER POPS IN THE NW EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO WEAKEN A LITTLE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ONLY WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE SE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL WORK BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S DEPENDING ON WHERE THE PCPN DEVELOPS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE WARM WITH MUCH OF THE REGION ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF...WITH SRN SECTIONS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL BE ACTIVELY EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING DUE TO POTENTIAL TIMING ISSUES. IN ITS WAKE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SITUATE ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SLIDE EASTWARD MONDAY. AS THE WINDS SHIFT AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH...EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER KENTUCKY. HPC SHOWING A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY WHICH IS NOT APPARENT IN THE SURFACE DEPICTIONS FOR EITHER TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE A MORE PRONOUNCED HOLD ON THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP SUPPORT THE ARGUMENT FOR A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND THURS. TEMPS WILL BE COOL TO START WITH. SUNDAYS HIGHS MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH...WARMING TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOSE TO THE LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THEN THERE SHOULD BE INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE REGION SO THAT MID AND UPPER 60S ARE MORE INDICATIVE OF OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND NEVER QUITE LEAVE THE FORECAST ENTIRELY AS THE NORTHERN PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR MAY BE A STRONG ENOUGH CONVERGENT FORCE OVER KY WHERE SOME MORE MOIST AIR WILL RESIDE. INITIALLY THOUGHT THUNDER FOR THE FORECAST BUT TONED BACK TO JUST SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...COINCIDING WITH THE LOWER CHANCES OF PRECIP. AFTER THIS TIME DAYTIME HEATING AND A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW WOULD NECESSITATE INCLUSION OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT FOG HOWEVER DID GO WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KLUK OVERNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME TO VCSH. WINDS WILL PICK UP FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH WIND GUSTS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AROUND 20 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE ADDED IN A VCTS MENTION INTO THE TAFS. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...FRANKS AVIATION...NOVAK

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