Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 241755 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 155 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An area of upper level low pressure will continue moving slowly east across the deep south today, as drier air remains in place over the Ohio Valley. A mid-level ridge will gradually build into the area by the middle of the week, allowing for increasing temperatures and generally dry conditions. As a cold front moves into the region on Thursday, chances for precipitation will increase. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A dry airmass remains in place across the area per the 12Z ILN raob. As a result, clouds have had a tough time so far this morning working back into our southeastern areas. This will be the question of the day as the models continue to show a fair amount of 850-700 mb advecting northwestward into our area through this afternoon. Will go ahead and allow for a gradual increase in cloud cover from the southeast and hang on to a 20 pop across our far southeast but there is some uncertainty to this. The amount of cloud cover may also make for a tricky temperature forecast and for now will continue to range highs from the upper 60s southeast to the lower 70s across the west. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... By this evening, any chance for light rain will be coming to an end, setting up a dry forecast for the rest of the short term period. However, with wind flow aligning to southeasterly from 700mb to near the surface, an increase in mid and low level moisture will continue, prompting a continued increase in sky cover through the overnight and into Tuesday morning. Things change again on Tuesday morning, as an increased amount of warming at 5kft-10kft will likely lead to decreasing RH and a scattering of the cloud deck, eventually mixing into a cumulus field by afternoon. With ridging building in aloft and a switch to SSE flow at the surface, the pattern will set up for a more significant increase in temperatures -- reaching the middle to upper 70s across the ILN CWA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Our region will be between a departing upper level low to our east and a s/wv and associated cold front to our west on Wednesday. Dry weather is expected along with locally breezy southerly winds. Temperatures should warm into the lower 80s, which is much above normal for late April. Embedded s/wv will rotate northeast from the southern plains to the Great Lakes region Wednesday night into Thursday. As this occurs, aforementioned cold front will push east across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will provide for a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will cool into the 70s given clouds and the threat for precipitation. By Thursday night, cold front should settle off to our east/southeast, allowing for weak high pressure to move in. For the period Friday into Saturday, there continues to be differences in the timing of a warm front to push through our region. Some models keep the forecast area dry on Friday while return moist flow on others bring at least a chance of showers or thunderstorms back by Friday afternoon. Have kept low PoPs on Friday, pushing south to north through the day. Best chance for showers and thunderstorms still appears slated for Friday night into Saturday morning as a low level jet provides the necessary moist convergence to trigger showers and storms. Temperatures will remain above normal through the period. Mid level flow is still expected to amplify Saturday night into Sunday as an upper level low digs east across the southern Plains, then northeast toward the middle Mississippi River Valley. This should eventually push the warm front north into the southern Great Lakes. Chances for showers/storms appears low at this time frame since the area will be warm sectored. Best chance for showers and thunderstorms should come Sunday night or Monday as an associated cold front eventually pushes into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Highs on Sunday will be warm, ranging from the lower 80s northwest, to perhaps the upper 80s southeast. Again, these readings are much above normal for late April. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Low to mid level moisture will continue to overspread the area from the southeast through the remainder of this afternoon and into tonight. The clouds are having a bit of a tough time as they move into some drier air but they are nonetheless making slow but steady progress across our area. Will therefore allow for VFR clouds to overspread the TAF sites through late afternoon/early evening. The models are eventually trying to bring some MVFR cigs in later tonight and perhaps even some IFR. Think this may be overdone somewhat so will just allow for a period of MVFR cigs at the southern TAF sites late tonight into early Tuesday morning. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings along with a chance of thunderstorms will be possible Thursday through Saturday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hatzos NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...Hatzos LONG TERM...Hickman AVIATION...JGL

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