Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 260541 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 141 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary will drop south through the region tonight into Friday. This will bring temporary relief from the heat on Friday. However, an upper ridge building back over the weekend will keep temperatures above normal. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity back across Indiana has been progressing east this evening but weakening as it does. This is in line with most of the hi res models which keep our area primarily dry overnight. There is a narrow cu field stretching from near Indianapolis to north of Columbus so suppose it is tough to rule out a stray shower developing across our northwest as we head into the overnight hours. However, think the chance is low enough to go with a dry forecast tonight. Expect lows tonight ranging from the mid to upper 60s northwest to the lower 70s in the south. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... On Friday, high pressure will be trying to build in. Once again a few outlying models try to pop some showers on Friday. Prefer to follow the consensus and go with a dry forecast. Will increase cloud cover however. Highs on Friday will be slightly cooler, ranging from the mid 80s in the north to around 90 along the Ohio River. Friday night into Saturday the H5 ridge will build back to the north into the region. This will allow for the heat and humidity to build back in a little. Went dry for Saturday, but bumped highs back up into the upper 80s to lower 90s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Large area of high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will keep a westerly flatten out as a shortwave crosses north of the Great Lakes region on Sunday night. West-southwest flow at this level will turn westerly through the early part of the week and then the tropical system muddies the forecast significantly. European bombs the low into the Florida panhandle whereas the GFS barely scratches the surface pressure field and WPC forecasts are trending towards a much weaker surface field with the positioning of the European circulation. Regardless of the tropical evolution, a surface boundary should migrate from the I-70 corridor on Monday towards the Ohio River vicinity by mid week. A stronger cold front is expected to push through the region on Wednesday as a large area of surface high pressure builds in Canada. This specific evolution remains to be seen and is likely to see large forecast shifts between now and then. Numerical guidance is not showing much of a day to day change with mid 80s to low 90s for highs and overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. Diurnal heating would maximize the thunderstorm threats in the late day, but the presence of a surface boundary and moist airmass may necessitate keeping some low chance of storms through the overnight hours. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Slow moving cold front is across northern Ohio. Humid airmass in place south of the front is forecast to cause a few problems for aviators this morning. Ceilings and visibilities are expected to be reduced as low as IFR early this morning. Isolated showers may not impact TAF sites. Look for improvement back to VFR by 14z, with VFR continuing through the end of the forecast under weak high pressure. Winds will remain light, with direction changing from northwest to northeast by the end of the forecast period. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Monday and Tuesday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hatzos/Sites NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...Coniglio

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