Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 241820 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 220 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure building into the center of the country will bring mainly dry conditions this weekend and below normal temperatures into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Highly amplified mid/upper level flow with ridge centered over the west coast and a mean trof over the Great Lakes and eastern US. Westerly flow across the Ohio Valley with an embedded s/w tracking through the southern Great Lakes. Forecast sounding point to a good deal of cumulus clouds development this afternoon with the best moisture across the north. Consensus model solutions continue to keep showers north of ILN/s FA, so have continued to keep the forecast dry. However, a few rain showers are not out of the question acrs the far north. Temperatures expected to be around 5 degrees below normal with highs from the mid 70s in the northwest to the lower 80s in the se. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Clouds are forecast to scattered out tonight as the high build in from the lower Ohio Valley. Temperatures will cool back into the mid 50s. A stronger H5 s/w swings across the Great Lakes on Sunday. This s/w is a little farther north the one that affects the region today. Once again kept pcpn chances across nrn Ohio, just to the north of the region. Highs will range from the lower 70s across the north to the upper 70s near the Ohio River. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Mean trof becomes more amplified over the area, so a contd threat of showers or thunderstorms will be continued Monday. Cool temperatures to continue with Mondays highs expected to be in the lower 70s. Warm front to develop over the Great Lakes with southerly flow increasing. Temperatures will continue to moderate with highs Thursday in the lower and middle 80s. The ECMWF and Canadian solns bringing a progressive system through the Great Lakes Thursday, while the GFS holds off pcpn. With an increase in moisture have allowed for a slight chance of a thunderstorm but confidence is not high in this chance. Models solns sharpen up mid level trof over the eastern Great Lakes which may lead to a few showers or thunderstorms over the northeastern counties. Rather cool readings to continue Tuesday with highs generally in the mid 70s. Surface high pressure slide east with southerly low level developing on its back side at midweek. Expect dry conditions with a warming trend. Temperatures will be closer to normal with highs on Wednesday in the lower 80s. Westerly flow aloft with surface wave tracking through the northern Great Lakes. This will allow an associated surface front to drop south into the southern Great Lakes and stall out. Have limited pops to chance category with the highest pops northwest Thursday. On the warm side of this system, expect temperatures to reach highs in the lower and middle 80s Thursday. Another progressive wave and associated frontal boundary expected to approach from the west increasing thunderstorm chances Friday into Friday night. Model solution strength and timing differences exist regarding this system. Due to this spread, uncertainty increases. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Westerly flow across the Ohio Valley with a s/w tracking through the southern Great Lakes today. Best moisture and lift to stay north of the area. Latest satl imagery shows increasing coverage of cumulus clouds development. Expect mainly scattered clouds around 4000 feet with an occasional VFR CIG through the afternoon. These diurnal clouds along with the passage of the s/w will dissipate this evening, leaving mainly clear sky conditions. Expect additional VFR cumulus clouds development Sunday afternoon. West winds around 10 kts will gust up to 20 kts this afternoon and then back a little southwest at speeds of less than 10 kts tonight. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sites NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...AR

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