Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 281052 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 652 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE AREA WITH SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF SC IS DROPPING QUICKLY DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WILL SOME LOW LEVEL CAA BEHIND A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH OUR AREA BY MID MORNING. CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND AS WE START TO SLIGHTLY DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT TO SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP. IN A CAA PATTERN...HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN VERY SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID 70S TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S ACROSS OUR SOUTH. SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITIES PROGGED EACH DAY...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY THURS AND FRI THAT THE SHOWERS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL AS NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN THE TROF DEEPENING AGAIN. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT BOTH DAYS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROF LIFTS E. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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COLD ADVECTION AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING A BKN TO OVC DECK WITH CIGS RANGING FROM AROUND 3000 FT ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER...TO AROUND 1800 FT NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MIX INTO THE LOW LEVELS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES AVIATION...LATTO

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