Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 190918 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 418 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will move east today, while low pressure approaches from the southwest. Expect widespread rain showers this evening through tonight when the low is forecast to travel to northern Ohio. Look for drier weather Friday and Saturday in the mild southerly flow following the low.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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High pressure is centered over southeast Ohio this morning. As the high crosses the Appalachians toward the East Coast this afternoon, surface low pressure developing ahead of a closed upper low will ride up the west flank of an upper ridge, reaching southwest Kentucky by 6 pm. Under increasing moisture and lift on a 45 knot LLJ, showers may begin to affect mainly southwestern locations. Warm advection on the southerly low level flow will allow highs in the low to mid 50s, even under overcast skies.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Surface low will be traveling from Kentucky to Ohio tonight, supported by a sharpening upper trough and carrying ample moisture on the persistent LLJ. Showers will be widespread, with most locations receiving one half to three quarters of an inch of rainfall. As the surface low lifts north to the vicinity of Lake Erie on Friday, the area will be in a regime of reduced moisture and forcing in the wake of the low. Under a weak ridge at the surface and aloft, showers will diminish greatly in coverage, leaving most sites free from precip by Friday afternoon. Similar mainly dry conditions appear to be in store for Saturday in the slow to evolve pattern. Temperatures will be very mild for mid winter due to the southerly low level flow coupled with above normal pressure heights aloft. Forecast highs Friday are in the mid and upper 50s, with low to mid 60s expected Saturday. This compares to normal highs in the mid and upper 30s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Low pressure moving into the upper midwest will be too far from the region to provide strong forcing, but continued moist flow will support the development of some precipitation by Saturday evening and going into early Sunday morning. With as warm as it may get, some very limited instability could develop, but thunder will be kept out of the forecast until (and if) confidence increases in this scenario. However, confidence continues to increase in warm conditions for Saturday, and this forecast will increase values by another degree or so. Record highs are in the 70s for all three climate sites, and these records appear safe. A fast-moving upper level low pressure system is expected to move across the southern tier of states on Sunday, with widespread precipitation (and some heavy rainfall) expected to develop in the Tennessee Valley region. On the northern periphery of this low, precipitation is eventually expected to spread northward into the Ohio Valley on Sunday, with another wave arriving on Monday as precipitable water values continue remain high for January (near or just under an inch). Overall, model differences are not large, though the ECMWF is slightly faster with the progression of this stacked low pressure system. Once the low has moved from south of the region to southeast of the region, a switch to northerly flow will allow for a gradual drop in temperatures through Monday and Tuesday. Timing out the end of precipitation is uncertain, however, as there is significant model spread (within GEFS members) regarding how the mid-level low / trough progress northeastward on Monday night into Tuesday. Beyond the passage of the low and the arrival of a narrow ridge, model solutions diverge significantly with regards to the next system moving through the quick westerly flow. Thus, confidence in specific temperature and precipitation details beyond Tuesday is fairly low. However, a general warmer-than-normal trend is almost certain to continue going into the rest of the week.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Low clouds with CIGS below 1000 feet will slowly erode from the southwest overnight as WAA develops. High level clouds CIGS this morning will thicken into the mid levels this afternoon in advance of the next system. Mid level flow backs tot he southwest durg the aftn with embedded shortwave and sfc low tracking northeast into the Ohio Valley by Friday morning. As favorable isentropic lift develops, expect rain to overspread the TAF sites around 00Z at KCVG/KLUK to 05Z at KCMH/KLCK. Expect CIGS and VSBYS to drop into MVFR category with the rain. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings possible through Friday, and then late Sunday into Monday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...AR

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