Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 151807 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 207 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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Drier and cooler air will work into the area overnight into the Saturday as high pressure settles to the southwest in the wake of a cold front. A secondary cold front will bring the potential for a few showers Saturday afternoon with cooler temperatures and dry conditions for Sunday. Cold temperatures and a chance of snow showers will accompany a disturbance on Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Split mid and upper level flow with confluent region working into the area later today and tonight. Surface cold front over South Central Ohio and Northeast Kentucky to push southeast of the area by afternoon. Clouds will linger with a band of post-frontal showers affecting the southeast half of ILN/s FA. These showers will continue working to the southeast ending from the northwest. Low level moisture lingers with some clearing working in from the northwest from about mid afternoon on. Much cooler temperatures are forecast, with readings steading out between 50 and 55 this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... High pressure building to the west will allow dry weather tonight and most likely Saturday. Sky cover will be on a decreasing trend as the dry air works in on a north to northwest low level flow. Temperatures dropping into the 30s tonight will rebound to around 60 on Saturday in an increasing southwest flow ahead of a disturbance to the north. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Pattern change to take place in split flow regime mid and upper level low to settle south into the Northern Great Lakes and then New England this weekend. Hang back trof to then drop south into the Ohio Valley early this week. In the wake of a surface cold front drier and cooler conditions return Sunday under weak ridging. Highs on Sunday expected to range from the lower 40s northwest to the mid 50s southeast with lows by Monday morning from 25 to 30. As hang back trof drops into the area on Monday a chance of snow showers possibly mixed with rain showers will be observed during the afternoon into the evening. Cool highs to range from the mid 30s to the lower 40s with lows by Tuesday morning in the mid and upper 20s. Some very light snow accumulation possible on grassy areas. Northwest flow aloft with a disturbance dropping thru the Great Lakes Tuesday may lead to additional chance for a rain or snow shower - mainly over the northeast counties. Highs on Tuesday to range from 45 to 50 with lows Wednesday morning 30 to 35. High pressure to build across the area offering dry weather at mid week. As the high slides off to the east a low level southerly flow will develop with a warming trend thru the end of the week. Highs generally from 45 to 55 Wednesday to warm into the 50s and lower 60s for Thursday and Friday. Moisture will increase with a chance for rain returning later Thursday and increasing Friday as the next frontal system moves into the region. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A surface cold front has pushed south of the TAF sites with a few post frontal showers possible early at KLUK and KCVG. Low clouds behind this front will impact the TAF sites with IFR ceilings rising to MVFR. By late in the day, the clouds will begin to scatter out from the northwest. High pressure will provide clear skies overnight into Saturday. Clouds will increase ahead of an approaching cold front Saturday afternoon but conditions are expected to remain VFR. North winds at 10 to 12 kts will diminish and back northwest this evening and then take on a southwest direction toward 12Z. Southwest winds at 10 to 15 kts will gust up to 20 to 25 kts Saturday afternoon. OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Saturday night and again on Monday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...AR

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