Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 241757 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 157 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level ridge will allow for continued hot and humid conditions through the weekend. Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible in this hot an humid airmass. A cold front will move through the region on Monday, bringing with it an enhanced chance of thunderstorms. This front will stall out across Kentucky, bringing a continued threat for storms across southern portions of the region Tuesday and Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Ongoing shower and thunderstorm activity continues to move ESE across northern Ohio. Activity may brush the extreme northern FA through the late morning and early afternoon hours, so have bumped PoPs a bit in these areas to account for this. Otherwise, expect most precipitation to remain north and east of FA for the remainder of the morning. While overall forcing across FA will remain weak this afternoon, decaying MCS across Michigan into northeast Ohio may lay out a boundary across a portion of the FA later today, which may provide a focus for convective development. Nevertheless, still expect that coverage should be somewhat limited during the afternoon, despite high instby. With more extensive cloud cover across NE parts of the FA, have trended temps down a degree for today. However, across the Tri- State area of SW OH, nrthrn KY, and SE IN, ample sunshine and warm air advection will allow temps to climb into the lower to mid 90s. With dewpoints hovering in the low/mid 70s, heat indices will near 105 for southern/southwestern parts of the area during peak heating. -PREVIOUS DISCUSSION- Upper level ridge will stretch east from the central plains across the Ohio Valley with band of westerlies across the northern plains and Great Lakes. Numerical models have been having a difficult time pin pointing storms in weakly forced, unstable airmass around the periphery of this ridge. Ongoing MCS tracking east across Northern Indiana and weakening. This complex is expected to push into west central Ohio and continue to weaken early this morning. This MCS will lkly lay out a boundary which will be the focus for additional convection later today with blyr cape values of 2500-3000 j/kg expected. Have limited pops to chance category far north and then slight chance across the central counties. Heat again will be a factor today with highs from 90 nw to the mid 90s se. These hot temperatures combined with dewpoints in the lower and middle 70s will result in heat indices of 100 to 104 degrees. Therefore, will continue previous heat headlines. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Expect any ongoing diurnally driven storms to die off this evening leaving a dry period. Approaching shortwave trough embedded in the westerlies late tonight will bring an increased chance of storms especially across the northwest. Will limit pops to chance category. Warm and humid conditions to continue tonight with lows in the lower and middle 70s. Upper level s/w to pivot thru the Great Lakes with associated surface cold front dropping southeast through the Ohio valley Monday afternoon. This front combined with moderate instby is expected to lead to thunderstorm development with the best coverage across the south. Low level convergence is not real impressive and the better forcing for ascent will be to our north. Some uncertainty on coverage of storms and degree of instby exists. Have opted to go likely across the south and will continue to mention the potential for severe storms in HWO with damaging winds being the primary threat. Highs on Monday to range from the upper 80s nw to around 90 se. Storms will end from the north but may linger across the far south Monday night closer to weakening frontal boundary that stalls out across Kentucky. Temperatures will be a little cooler with lows from the mid 60s north to around 70 south. Cold front which will stall out across Kentucky will be the focus for diurnal storm development Tuesday. Will mention this potential along and south of the Ohio river. Further north, drier air should inhibit thunderstorm development. Highs on Tuesday will be slightly cooler and generally in the mid and upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Diurnal storms will be possible Wednesday across the south, close to the stalled frontal boundary. By Thursday, whatever is left of the stalled boundary will lift back north as a warm front, allowing a moist air mass to return to the entire CWA. Guidance suggests multiple shortwaves moving across the Ohio Valley through the end of the week and perhaps even into Saturday. This supports chance pops for thunderstorms during this time. Temperatures are forecast to favor near average to slightly above average values through the long term. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR Cu field has developed this afternoon as remnants of an MCS continue to track through the Great Lakes region. A few -SHRA/TS have popped across west-central and central Ohio this afternoon given high instby environment. Expect this activity should stay north of the terminals, so have kept sites dry through today. For this evening, convection will likely develop across parts of northern IL/IN and track SE. CAMs continue to indicate this activity will weaken as it moves into central Indiana and potentially extreme western Ohio. With instby waning after 02z and convection moving away from primary forcing, it seems likely that activity will dissipate before potentially affecting western TAF sites of KCVG, KLUK, and KDAY. Therefore, have kept dry trend through 06z despite uncertainty regarding exact convective evolution. Main concern overnight will be potential for BR to form again, especially for KLUK and KILN. Although conditions do not appear to be ideal for widespread BR development across the region, MVFR VSBYs are once again possible. West-southwesterly winds of 5 to 10 kts are expected Monday as a cold front drifts south through area. With high instby, plenty of moisture, and a source for lift, expect that SHRA/TS will develop across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. There exists uncertainty on exact timing and location of potential initiation, so have handled this with a VCTS at all sites starting at 16z (although initiation may be end up occurring after 18z Monday). OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon and again Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051>056-060-062>065-070>074-078>082-088. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ061- 077. KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ089>100. IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ050-058-059- 066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...KC SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...BPP AVIATION...KC is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.