Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 311039 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 639 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS OHIO TODAY...BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MAINLY DRY WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP DURING THE WEEK AS THE HIGH TRAVELS EASTWARD. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LOW PRESSURE OVER INDIANA THIS MORNING WILL TRAVEL INTO OHIO TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM IN THE MOIST CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW. WITH THE LOW TRACKING ROUGHLY ALONG I-70...THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DEFORMATION ARE MOST PREVALENT. LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW SHOULD SEE ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN A REGIME OF WEAKER FORCING BUT SOMEWHAT HIGHER INSTABILITY. A MODEST AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF RATHER SHALLOW CONVECTION AND WEAK WIND FIELDS. COPIOUS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL ALLOW ABOUT A HALF AN INCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN NORTHERN COUNTIES. THOUGH GENEROUS RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OCCURRED IN SOME LOCATIONS...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE HIGH CAPACITY OF SOILS AND STREAMS RESULTING FROM RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. WILL MENTION MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBILITY NORTH OF I-70 IN HWO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY DUE TO COLD ADVECTION...WITH HIGH RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S NORTHWEST UP TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER KENTUCKY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RIVER...WHILE CLOUDS PERSIST ELSEWHERE UNDER A STRONG INVERSION. FOR TUESDAY...THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD...AND ALL LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL IN A RELATIVELY ROBUST NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. HIGHS MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH UP TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. MODERATION TO THE LOW TO MID 70S IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH THE REGION IN A BIT OF A COL BETWEEN WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH AND A CUT OFF LOW IN THE DEEP SOUTH. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/ INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND PERHAPS EVEN DRIFT BACK NORTH A BIT. A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS EVOLUTION. BUT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS...MOSTLY DIURNAL...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM DURING THIS PERIOD. AS SOUTHERN LOW OPENS UP THE WESTERLIES WILL SAG SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. IT APPEARS THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL START BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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MVFR CIGS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SPREAD TO CVG/LUK EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE WILL GRADUALLY WORK FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE TERMINALS DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CIGS DROP INTO IFR TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS OCCURRENCE AND KEPT CIGS IN MVFR CATEGORY TODAY. SHOWER CHANCES LOOK PRIMARILY RELEGATED TO THE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS. WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE...DO EXPECT IFR OR EVEN LIFR CIGS TONIGHT PER SREFS/MAV/MET GUIDANCE. OUTLOOK...IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE THEN LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM... AVIATION...BPP

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