Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 230922 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 422 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BE DISPLACED AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY AND THEN SUBSEQUENTLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. A CLIPPER WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL GET PINCHED OFF BETWEEN A TROUGH IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LATTER SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL THEN QUICKLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS WHEN ENERGY GETS TRANSFERRED TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW DURING THE EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THIS CHANGEOVER OCCURS. AT THIS POINT ONLY HAVE AROUND AN INCH ACCUMULATION. APPEARS THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PERSISTENT INTO AT LEAST THE MORNING. SOME BRIEF CLEARING MAY DEVELOP BEFORE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM SPREAD IN. EVEN WITH CLOUDS HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. WARMER GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BRING A SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALTHOUGH THIS COULD END UP BEING FLURRIES/SPRINKLES INSTEAD. THEN FOCUS TURNS TO THE CLIPPER THAT WILL BE DIVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. 00Z MODEL SUITE STILL SHOWS TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES. LEANED TOWARDS GFS SOLUTION AND NOW THE 06Z NAM IS TRACKING VERY CLOSE TO THE 00Z GFS. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE IN FLUX AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. APPEARS THAT THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY BE ALL OR AT LEAST PREDOMINANTLY SNOW. WHERE THAT OCCURS THERE COULD BE 1-3 INCHES ACCUMULATION. ELSEWHERE PRECIPITATION MAY START AS LIGHT SNOW AND THEN MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A CHANGE BACK TO SNOW DURING THE EVENING WITH DIURNAL COOLING AND COLDER AIR COMING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT BY THAT TIME ALTHOUGH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STAYED CLOSER TO WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY READINGS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE IN THE NORTH WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MOVING IN SOONER. SO STAYED CLOSER TO COOLER GUIDANCE IN THAT REGION WHILE FURTHER SOUTH THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL RISE AD A MOS BLEND SEEMED REASONABLE. DID TREND LOWS DOWN A BIT THEN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SURFACE RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD IN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN THE CENTER OF A HIGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE WEEK AND THEN MODERATE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD. HAVE CONDITIONS BRIEFLY RETURNING TO VFR AT KCVG AND KLUK OVERNIGHT HOWEVER EXPECT SOME MVFR VSBYS LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT. LINGER MVFR CIGS AT OTHER AREA TAF SITES UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AT KDAY THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN PRESENT THROUGH THE DAY. A SYSTEM WILL MOVE JUST SE OF THE TAF SITES FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CLIPPING THE KLUK AND KILN TAFS. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...NOVAK

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