Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 221356 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 956 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OHIO WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THE BOUNDARY BUT THERE IS A VERY NARROW RIBBON OF SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH WITH THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND AN AXIS OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WEAK INSTABILITIES ALONG THE FRONT COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATER TODAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS EVENING. ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE SE CWFA SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. A MIX OF SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS A SHEARED OUT S/WV MOVES ACRS THE REGION. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY VEER TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE DELAYED TO PERHAPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY AS UPPER HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST KEEPS PCPN TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND WITH LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S EACH DAY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS OF 11Z. COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT SCT-BKN BAND OF VFR CIGS ORIENTED ACROSS NERN IND INTO NRN OH AND SAGGING SOUTHEAST. EXPECT BULK OF THESE VFR CIGS AND DYING SHOWERS TO MOVE NORTH/EAST OF CMH/LCK TAF SITES THIS MORNING. FRONT SLOWS AS IT ENTERS SOUTHERN OHIO WITH VEERING WEAK FLOW INCREASING A BIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SOME GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 17-18KT. CUMULUS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING SOUTH OF COLUMBUS DOWN INTO SCNTL OHIO...PERHAPS AS FAR BACK AS WILMINGTON WHERE A VCSH WAS INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST. FRONT CLEARS ALL TAF SITES BY EARLY EVENING WITH WINDS TURNING QUICKLY NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ASIDE FROM SOME SCT-BKN CIRRUS...EXPECT NO RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS/VSBY ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...BINAU

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