Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 260825 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 425 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...KEEPING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE DRIER WEATHER ON THURSDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...WHILE THE FRONT LINGERS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION TODAY. HOWEVER...A FRONT TO THE WEST WILL BE MOVING TOWARD NORTHWEST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTER AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...COUPLED WITH INSOLATION AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL WORK TOGETHER TO PRODUCE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. THIS SCENARIO WARRANTS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST OF DAYTON. HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 90 COMBINING WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY WILL CAUSE HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REACH THE MID 90S IN WESTERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THESE SUB ADVISORY HEAT INDICES IN THE HWO.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN COUNTIES...SPREADING SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. COVERAGE...PERSISTENCE AND STRENGTH OF CONVECTION MAY BE LIMITED BY RATHER WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. COULD STILL SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH SLOW MOVING CELLS IN A MOIST AIRMASS CONTAINING 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH. FOR THURSDAY...MOST AREAS SHOULD HAVE DRIER WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE IN. MODELS INDICATE THAT REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF CINCINNATI. TEMPERATURES WILL SLIP SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS...PRECIP AND COLD ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 AND HEAT INDICES IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER ON WEDNESDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...A SHORT WAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS A COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL TRAVEL BEFORE STALLING. SO THE CHANCE OF STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER FORECAST. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION WHICH OCCURRED UPSTREAM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO THIN TOWARD SUNRISE. IN THE MOIST AIRMASS WITH LIGHT WIND FLOW AND THINNING CLOUDS EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KLUK/KILN WHERE IFR CONDITIONS ARE FCST. MIST/FOG WILL BURN OFF ON THIS MORNING BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS S/W ENERGY DROPS THRU THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO STAY TO THE NORTH TODAY AND THEN AFFECT THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM... AVIATION...AR

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