Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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224 FXUS61 KILN 251804 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 204 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms will be observed in the hot and humid air mass which is in place, ahead of cold front which will move through the region this afternoon. This front will stall out across Kentucky, bringing a continued threat for storms across southern portions of the region Tuesday and Wednesday. The front is expected to lift north as warm front, as a wave of low pressure tracks through the Great Lakes late in the week. This will bring the threat for widespread thunderstorms Thursday night and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Mesoscale boundary from AM decaying convection across Indiana has progressed south and east through the northwestern half of the FA early this afternoon. Behind this boundary, dewpoints have dropped into the upper 60s and lower 70s and appears to have stunted potential convective activity for this afternoon. While some isolated development is possible along the front itself as it pushes SE through the evening, expect coverage to be limited. Along and south of the aforementioned mesoscale boundary, showers and storms have developed in a very warm and humid environment. This activity and will push east through the afternoon hours before slowly tapering off early this evening. While an isolated strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out, the main threat will be brief heavy downpours.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Surface cold front to push south of the Ohio river and stall out south of the Ohio river tonight. Storms will end from the north across all but the far south overnight. Temperatures will be a little cooler with lows from the mid 60s north to the lower 70s south. Surface cold front to stall out east-west just south of the Ohio river at the south end of the mid level westerlies. This front will be the focus for diurnal storm development Tuesday. Will mention this potential along and south of the Ohio river. Further north, drier air should inhibit thunderstorm development. Highs on Tuesday will be slightly cooler and generally in the mid and upper 80s. Weak surface high pressure to build acrs the Great Lakes with a continued threat of showers and thunderstorms along and south of the Ohio river Wednesday. Have limited mention to slight chance. Generally expect highs in the upper 80s Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Boundary will lift north as a warm front late Wednesday night into Thursday. This will allow precipitable water values to increase northward, placing the CWA back in a very moist environment for Thursday. Models show a shortwave approaching late Thursday or Thursday night. Timing is still somewhat in question, but there is decent consensus on the track which will bring it across the Ohio Valley. Therefore, begin to increase pops for Thursday afternoon and will continue chance pops into Thursday night for possible influence from shortwave. Additional shortwaves may affect the Ohio Valley Friday through Saturday. Details associated with the shortwaves (such as track/timing/strength) are in question and will need to be resolved with time. But the potential for shortwaves combined with a warm moist air mass means that chance pops for convection will continue through at least Saturday. Eventually, a cold front may move through and this could occur late Saturday into Sunday but confidence is low on the timing of the frontal passage. Temperatures are forecast to favor near average to slightly above average values through the long term. && .AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Showers and storms have fired along and downstream of a slowly- moving boundary parallel to and just east of the I-71 corridor in Ohio. This boundary will slowly drift S/E thru the afternoon, allowing the northern terminals of KDAY, KCMH, and KLCK to remain dry thru 00z Tuesday. A cold front stretching from MI southwestward through southern IL will move S/E thru the evening hours, allowing for winds to turn more northwesterly for the overnight period. Winds will remain very light overnight, allowing for the possibility of BR/MVFR VSBYs to develop once again for southern sites of KCVG, KLUK, and KILN, especially as front may be a bit slower to usher in drier air for these sites. VFR conditions are expected after 12z Tuesday as the front stalls south of the terminals. There exists a little uncertainty as to how far south the front will progress before stalling. This will dictate where SHRA/TS development will be possible on Tuesday afternoon, but still expect coverage to be concentrated south of southern terminals of KCVG and KLUK. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday through Friday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ055-056- 063>065-070>074-078>082-088. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ077. KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ089>100. IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ066-073>075- 080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...KC SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...BPP AVIATION...KC

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