Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 010610 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 110 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front has moved east of the area this evening. Cyclonic flow will bring cool, mainly cloudy conditions through Friday. High pressure will build in early in the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Line of showers in association with a surface cold front has pushed east of the area this evening with cloud cover moving into the area from the west. CAA also moving in from the west will allow lows to drop near guidance but looking at forecast soundings have kept forecast overcast to mostly cloudy as low level moisture will likely get trapped underneath a low level inversion. Have adjusted high temperatures down a bit given the all day cloud cover expected. Prev Discussion-> Cold front will continue across the forecast area late this afternoon and be east of the area this evening. A band of showers has developed along and behind the front. Not clear whether this will be measurable or not, so have kept PoPs in the chance category. There may be a brief break in the clouds behind the precipitation, but then additional cloud cover will spread in overnight. Forecast lows fall within the MOS guidance envelope. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Large closed low over the Great Lakes at the beginning of the period will translate northeast leaving a west to northwest upper flow across the region. Cyclonic low level flow will persist through Friday with moisture being trapped under an inversion, which should result in clouds predominating. Thus highs will be below normal with a limited diurnal range Thursday night. As high pressure starts to build in Friday night, clouds will finally diminish which will allow temperatures to fall into the 20s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will start out the long term on Saturday. A system approaches Saturday night into Sunday. There is a northern and southern component to this system and models differ on how much phasing between these two components there will be. Trends are towards less phasing which would be a little cooler with temperatures as the warmer air with the southern system would not be drawn up into the region as much. It would also be more of a quicker lighter shot of precipitation than drawing up the southern moisture. Went with the trend towards less phasing, cooler solution, with more rain and snow mix of precipitation. Precipitation will move out of the region Sunday night. A brief lull in the precipitation will occur Monday before a system begins to move in Monday night. There is a decent warm push of air with this system therefore have precipitation as all rain. Expect rain across the area for Tuesday before exiting Tuesday night. Models are variable for a system Wednesday into Wednesday night and with this variance decided to keep precipitation chances lower until there is greater continuity and forecast confidence. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Cold advection SC is building into the region, with cigs coming in MVFR across the nrn tafs and VFR in the south. With cyclonic flow across the region the clouds should hold together across the northern tafs, however expect them to lift to VFR with the daytime heating. Models are on the edge with their cloud forecast for CVG/LUK however. Some guidance is showing the clouds going scattered this afternoon. Prefer the more pessimistic solution which keeps a VFR ceiling through the afternoon. With the moisture caught under an inversion, clouds should fill back in and lower with sunset. Latest obs are showing some gusts as the cold air comes in, so have upped winds for tonight. Gusts should continue into tomorrow. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible through Saturday morning. MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Sunday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...Haines SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...Sites

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