Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 251514 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1014 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW. A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TODAY AS AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH BEHIND IT. SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS...ENHANCED PER SATELLITE IMAGERY...WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS ARE FROM TWO SYSTEMS THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD AT THIS POINT AND SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S FAR NORTH TO THE MID 30S FAR SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... OUR AREA WILL FIND ITSELF BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS TONIGHT. THE FIRST IS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY SLOWLY TRENDING THIS SYSTEM A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH SO THINK THE NORTHER FRINGE OF IT MAY BRUSH FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA LATE TONIGHT AND/OR THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A COMPACT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT AS IT ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF A BROADER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FAIRLY RAPID WEAKENING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...BUT IT SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO SPREAD AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW EAST INTO OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATION BEING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. IN DEVELOPING CAA...HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS NORTH TO LOW/MID 20S SOUTH. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST WE ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT. WILL BANK ON ENOUGH CLEARING AT THIS POINT TO ALLOW FOR SOME SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR FA. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS. WINDS CHILL READINGS WILL ALSO BECOME A CONCERN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN THE HWO. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LONG TERM. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL STILL BE ON THE GROUND ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS AS WELL AND A COLD AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE. ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO MOST LOCATIONS BEING BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT. WAA WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN BEGINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WENT CLOSE TO THE GFS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. A SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WENT PRIMARILY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO SOUTH OF THE FA ON MONDAY HOWEVER SOME PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM BRINGS WARMER AIR TO THE REGION AND A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN THREAT. INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS SYSTEM. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN...SNOW ON THE GROUND...AND FROZEN GROUND. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... STRATOCU HAVE CLEARED AREA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN AHEAD OF APPROACHING S/W IN NORTHERN PLAINS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL DOMINANT TODAY UNDER INFLUENCE OF PLAINS SYSTEM AND SOUTHERN SYSTEM. SOME STRATOCU MAY DEVELOP IN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH FLOW OFF LAKES. WINDS MAINLY LIGHT. S/W WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD TAF SITES. WILL SEE LOWERING CEILINGS TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY AND MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...PADGETT

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