Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KILN 010610
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
110 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2016
A cold front has moved east of the area this evening. Cyclonic
flow will bring cool, mainly cloudy conditions through Friday.
High pressure will build in early in the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Line of showers in association with a surface cold front has
pushed east of the area this evening with cloud cover moving into
the area from the west. CAA also moving in from the west will
allow lows to drop near guidance but looking at forecast soundings
have kept forecast overcast to mostly cloudy as low level moisture
will likely get trapped underneath a low level inversion. Have
adjusted high temperatures down a bit given the all day cloud
Cold front will continue across the forecast area late this
afternoon and be east of the area this evening. A band of showers
has developed along and behind the front. Not clear whether this
will be measurable or not, so have kept PoPs in the chance
category. There may be a brief break in the clouds behind the
precipitation, but then additional cloud cover will spread in
overnight. Forecast lows fall within the MOS guidance envelope.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Large closed low over the Great Lakes at the beginning of the
period will translate northeast leaving a west to northwest upper
flow across the region. Cyclonic low level flow will persist
through Friday with moisture being trapped under an inversion,
which should result in clouds predominating. Thus highs will be
below normal with a limited diurnal range Thursday night. As high
pressure starts to build in Friday night, clouds will finally
diminish which will allow temperatures to fall into the 20s.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will start out the long term on Saturday. A system
approaches Saturday night into Sunday. There is a northern and
southern component to this system and models differ on how much
phasing between these two components there will be. Trends are
towards less phasing which would be a little cooler with temperatures
as the warmer air with the southern system would not be drawn up
into the region as much. It would also be more of a quicker lighter
shot of precipitation than drawing up the southern moisture. Went
with the trend towards less phasing, cooler solution, with more rain
and snow mix of precipitation. Precipitation will move out of the
region Sunday night.
A brief lull in the precipitation will occur Monday before a system
begins to move in Monday night. There is a decent warm push of air
with this system therefore have precipitation as all rain. Expect
rain across the area for Tuesday before exiting Tuesday night.
Models are variable for a system Wednesday into Wednesday night and
with this variance decided to keep precipitation chances lower until
there is greater continuity and forecast confidence.
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Cold advection SC is building into the region, with cigs coming
in MVFR across the nrn tafs and VFR in the south. With cyclonic
flow across the region the clouds should hold together across the
northern tafs, however expect them to lift to VFR with the daytime
heating. Models are on the edge with their cloud forecast for
CVG/LUK however. Some guidance is showing the clouds going
scattered this afternoon. Prefer the more pessimistic solution
which keeps a VFR ceiling through the afternoon. With the
moisture caught under an inversion, clouds should fill back in and
lower with sunset.
Latest obs are showing some gusts as the cold air comes in, so
have upped winds for tonight. Gusts should continue into tomorrow.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible through Saturday morning. MVFR
ceilings and visibilities possible Sunday.
-- End Changed Discussion --