Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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054 FXUS61 KILN 141822 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 122 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Precipitation will expand across the region this morning. With temperatures near or below freezing, periods of light freezing rain will be possible through the morning. Building high pressure will push the precipitation to the south of the region this afternoon and tonight, before it lifts north again on Sunday and Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Only minor adjustments made to forecast this morning as shortwave approaches the forecast area from the west. Did have a brief break in the precipitation this morning but broad shield of precipitation has started to push into the region this morning from the approaching shortwave. Surface temperatures also remain around freezing this morning across the south to just below freezing across the north. Am expecting a slow warm up in temperatures but given ongoing precipitation, clouds, and dewpoint depressions five plus across the northeast have lowered high temperatures by a degree or two. Not expecting much ice this morning as temperatures are marginal in most places with road temperatures above freezing everywhere south of Interstate 70. Still though... light freezing rain will continue through the morning so will keep advisory as is. Prev Discussion -> Weak sfc wave to track through the srn Ohio Valley in response to sheared out shortwave moving through the zonal flow. Favorable isentropic lift to expand north this morning and then pivot east by afternoon. Observations and model trends continue to show temperatures above freezing in far south, where all rain will be observed. Expect any ice to be minor (less than a tenth of an inch) but will continue current advisory thru 1 pm and add the far northern counties to the the headline. Expect improvement this afternoon when temperatures warm up and pcpn begins to taper off from the NW. Cloud cover and low level winds shifting from the east to the northwest will keep temperatures from rising much today. Expect highs from the mid 30s nw to the lower 40s se. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... Numerical models solns generally similar in establishing strong surface high pressure over the Great Lakes tonight which should allow for a temporary end to the precipitation. Some partial clearing possible across the far north, otherwise expect clouds to hang on overnight. Lows to range from the mid 20s north to the lower 30s south. Expect a return of rain, mainly over the south Sunday afternoon associated with the warm front located to our south. Model solns differ on how far north pcpn makes it durg the day. Have limited pops to chance category. Highs on Sunday to range from the mid 30s nw to the lower 40s se. Mid level and sfc low to eject northeast from the Central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley Monday night. In warm sector have limited pops to slight chance/chance pops durg most of the day with an enhanced threat for pcpn developing Monday night with the approach of a frontal boundary. Highs on Monday to be very mild, ranging from the mid/upper 40s north to the upper 50s south. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A warm front lifting northward through the Ohio Valley early on Monday is getting less and less coverage looking at the QPF fields. This appears due to the h5 ridge in place that would limit any upward motion in the region. GFS has an elongated vort maxima that cuts through a significantly weaker h5 ridge and this was in line with the previous several days forecast. Was hesitant to lower the chances of rain in this period to nothing as a low chance seemed the better forecast. If precip is here at this time, early Monday would see temps below freezing along and north of the I-70 corridor for a few hours until temps quickly rise above 32 deg. As the upper ridge moves east overnight, rain will overspread the region from the west. Some of this may be heavy at times as the surface low tracking to the Great Lakes region is strengthening and the low level jet brings in a good moisture plume from the Gulf. Models begin to diverge on Tuesday as the GFS brings a cutoff low tracking south into the midwest and then east through the region. Canadian and European models are much less robust with the h5 low and keep a more open wave as it crosses further north. This is the warmer and wetter solution which has better continuity from previous forecasts when extrapolating further into Tuesday night and Wednesday. On Wednesday, a cold front will track east through the Ohio Valley and any rain will end from west to east during the day. GFS was dry for early Wednesday whereas European and Canadian hold the surface front and weak low pressure center over nrn KY early on Wednesday before exiting east. Kept Thursday dry and hedged towards a chance of showers on Friday but feel that any system this far out would only impact areas south of the CWA. Continued to keep to the warm side of guidance for the extended forecast. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Precipitation continues to move across the terminals this afternoon with mostly LIFR conditions. Further north towards CMH/ LCK precipitation has remained mostly south of the area. Another band of precipitation is currently moving across central Indiana and will likely impact these northern terminals though. Given current temperature profiles across the northern TAF sites frozen precipitation looks likely. This evening precipitation will slowly come to an end as surface high pressure approaches from the northwest. Latest NAM soundings show moisture locked in across the terminals with LIFR CIGs prevailing until daybreak Sunday morning. The GFS on the other hand pushes all terminals VFR by 6z Sunday morning. Overall high res guidance indicates a slow recovery in CIGs overnight and have made TAFs reflect this. High res guidance is also indicating the potential for fog development mostly northwest of the TAF sites. This is in part due to some clearing skies and calm winds from approaching high pressure. As of current looks like TAF sites will remain just cloudy enough to hold off fog development. During the day Sunday surface high pressure will skirt north and east of the area allowing winds to quickly veer east. VFR expected during the day Sunday. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities are possible at times Sunday night through Wednesday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...Freezing Rain Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065. KY...None. IN...Freezing Rain Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for INZ050-058-059.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines/AR NEAR TERM...Haines/AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...Haines

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