Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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732 FXUS61 KILN 231756 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 156 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A mid-level ridge of high pressure will remain over the region through early next week. This will bring generally dry and warm weather conditions to the region. A slight cooling trend will occur by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... No major changes to the forecast this morning. Upper ridge will keep the region dry with sunny skies. Latest ILN sounding looks like it will support the current forecast highs, so no changes there either. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Tonight into Sunday the mid-level ridge will slowly nudge east as the upper level low that was over the Mountain West ejects. 1000/ 850 mb thicknesses and 850 mb temperatures nudge downwards a bit so think Sunday highs will be slightly cooler than Saturdays. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... An elongated upper level ridge axis in place across the northeast United States on Monday will slowly break down through Wednesday as a trough axis approaches from the west. With a dry airmass in place, will maintain a dry forecast for Monday into Tuesday along with a continuation of unseasonably warm temperatures. Highs both days will be into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. The approach of the trough axis for Wednesday into Thursday may be affected with how close Hurricane Maria gets to the east coast so there is some uncertainty as to just how fast the ridge will completely break down. This may also limit how much pcpn is able to make it into our area through the day on Wednesday so will limit pops to just a slight chance and primarily across our northwest for Wednesday afternoon. Highs on Wednesday will also be a little tricky depending on this timing so will lean toward a model blend with highs mainly in the low to mid 80s. The upper level trough will then settle into the region for Thursday into Friday. This will be accompanied by a much cooler airmass with highs on Thursday only in the lower 70s, cooling into the mid to upper 60s by Friday. There will also be some lower end chances for showers, especially across northern portions of our area on Friday. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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With high pressure at the surface and aloft the weather across the region will be relatively benign. A few patches of cirrus will work west across the tafs today. Then tonight, with the weak easterly flow across the tafs, river valley fog should form again. This is despite some increase H3 moisture from the se, which might bring more patchy cirrus. Went with IFR fog at KLUK from 07-12Z. The other tafs were left as VFR. The fog should burn off by 13Z, leaving VFR conditions and a just a few cirrus. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Sites

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