-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 302127
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
427 PM EST SAT NOV 30 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA...A SERIES OF
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN
OHIO VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL COME LATER NEXT WEEK...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOW WELL EAST OF THE AREA...A SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. FLOW AHEAD OF THE
LOW AND TO ITS SOUTH HAS TURNED TO THE SSW...ALLOWING A BIT OF A
WARM-UP FROM TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY.

THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE LAKES...AND AN ASSOCIATED BUT BROAD
SHORTWAVE...WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE ILN
CWA. HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES STRETCHING FOR LONG DISTANCES BACK TO
THE WEST AND EVEN WNW DO NOT ARGUE FOR A QUICK INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS EVEN INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BECOMING A LITTLE MORE CLOUDY IN THE NORTHERN
CWA NEAR MORNING. WHILE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAIRLY GOOD...THE MUCH WARMER STARTING POINT (8-10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY) DEFINITELY SUPPORTS MIN TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL
(NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING).
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...A
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE ILN CWA...EXTENDING ALL THE WAY
DOWN TO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE
RATHER LIMITED TO BEGIN WITH...AND THE WEAK NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY
DOES NOT SUPPORT A CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...NOTING SOME VERY LIGHT QPF OUTPUT ON JUST
A COUPLE MODELS...VIRGA AND PASSING SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR.

THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL HAVE WEAK WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN...WITH
ONE SUCH WAVE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
FROM THE NORTH...BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT OF THE WEAK FRONT MOVING
THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A
SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS (WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHERN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING). QPF
DEPICTIONS BY THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE QUITE INCONSISTENT WITH EACH
OTHER...SO THE POP FORECAST WILL INSTEAD FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE
LOCATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH APPEARS TO FAVOR THE
NORTHERN CWA ACROSS MULTIPLE DEPICTIONS.

CLOUDS MAY NOT BE QUICK TO DEPART BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK LESS
LIKELY AS MONDAY NIGHT BEGINS. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS LOOK THICK ENOUGH WITH NEAR-SURFACE RH TO SUGGEST A
POSSIBILITY FOR STRATUS AND/OR DRIZZLE.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE ON A SLIGHT UPWARD TREND THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH THE WEAK FRONT HAVING ONLY A SMALL IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURE AND THETA-E FIELDS. THE GOING FORECAST WAS NOT CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...BUT SOME UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE MIN TEMPS ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
THICK LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE A REAL POSSIBILITY.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF...12Z WPC GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS
FCST TO KEEP SOME CONTINUITY IN THE UPCOMING EXTENDED FORECAST.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACRS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. IT
LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE TRAPPED UNDER THIS RIDGE AND
THUS SKIES MAY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.

AS THE RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATES EAST...WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BE ABLE
TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE A FRONT EMANATING FROM A LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL APPROACH AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
IN THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN
INTO THE AREA...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW MOVING AS IT BECOMES NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW. WARM TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK
WILL RETURN TO COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY WEEKS END. IT
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT PCPN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT COULD RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX. IT IS TOO FAR OUT AT THIS
TIME TO PEG AMOUNTS DOWN AND PTYPE GIVEN SLOW FRONTAL MOVEMENT. PCPN
SHOULD EXIT THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES AWAY AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE
REGION.
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&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR WITH MO CLEAR THROUGH ABOUT 06-10Z PRIOR TO ADVANCEMENT OF
VERY WEAK COLD FRONT...THEN VFR BKN THROUGH PERIOD FOR ALL
LOCATIONS EXCEPT KCVG WHERE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS IN INCREASING
MOISTURE WITH THE BOUNDARY AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
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&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...JDR