-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 250631
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
231 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level trough over the Great Lakes this weekend into early
next week will lead to cool temperatures with scattered showers
and thunderstorms mainly north of Wilmington`s area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Embedded s/wv over Wisconsin this evening will move east to
lower Michigan overnight. Main sensible weather associated with
this feature will remain north of the forecast area...with only
some FEW-SCT cirrus clouds expected.

With mostly clear skies overnight, and with a dry airmass in
place, temperatures will drop to cool lows in the lower and
middle 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Mid level shortwave trof to drop into the mean trof position
Sunday. A surface reflection in the form of a weak front will
pass through the Ohio Valley Sunday afternoon. Moisture is
limited with this system and with weak forcing have elected to
keep the forecast dry, although an isold shower or thunderstorm
is not out of the question across the north during the
afternoon. Cool temperatures to continue with Sundays highs from
the lower 70s northwest to the upper 70s southeast.

Expect clouds to diminish after sunset Sunday, with some clouds
lingering across the north. Expect cool lows Sunday night in the
lower and middle 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
On Monday morning, large-scale troughing will exist over the eastern
half of the CONUS, with a relatively dry air mass in place over the
Ohio Valley. A weakening shortwave will be moving southeast into the
southern Great Lakes, which is expected to lead to greater low-level
moisture and chances for precipitation in that region. However, its
impacts over the Ohio Valley will be very limited, with little
confidence in more than an increase in cloud cover -- primarily in
the northern half of the ILN CWA. Would not be impossible to have a
few light showers develop north of I-70, but the dry air mass
precludes adding this to the forecast for now. Will only maintain a
20-PoP in the NE CWA later Monday night into Tuesday morning, as a
secondary shortwave moves through the upper Ohio Valley. Despite an
expectation for a reasonable amount of sunlight, the continued 850mb
cold advection will lead to this being the coolest day of the
extended forecast period.

Dry high pressure will move into the region Tuesday, influencing
conditions through the middle part of the week. With a turning of
winds to the south on Wednesday, a more appreciable warmup will
begin, with temperatures returning to the 80s.

As a more progressive pattern begins to set up for Thursday and
beyond, model differences become more pronounced, leading to lower
confidence -- especially in precipitation timing through the rest of
the week. There is agreement that a frontal zone will set up east-to-
west across the southern Great Lakes, with the ILN CWA in the warm
sector within solid deep-layer southwesterly flow. As convection
develops at the north end of this warm sector, and along the frontal
area, there will eventually be some propagation downstream which may
impact the ILN CWA -- perhaps on Thursday afternoon, and then again
as additional waves of precipitation occur going into Friday. How
much of the CWA remains capped is a question, as is the exact
position of the front. Because of this, PoPs will be kept on the
lower side of things for now, with a model blend suggesting higher
precipitation chances north of the ILN CWA. Differences in the
evolution of an upstream trough going into the weekend will preclude
more than very low confidence in the forecast late Friday into
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR conditions will prevail over the Ohio Valley through the
period. Scattered to sometimes broken 5kft cu deck will persist
into the evening before clearing. Winds during the day will pick
up from the west-northwest and see gusts to 20 to 25kt.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...Hickman/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...Franks