Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 270040 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 840 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will approach the region tonight and move across the area on Thursday. High pressure will briefly build in behind the front. Then conditions will become unsettled over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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A few thunderstorms may briefly edge near extreme northwestern portions of the forecast area early this evening, otherwise expect dry conditions for most of the night. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will begin to move into the region towards the end of the near term as a cold front approaches. Winds will pick up during this time as well. With southerly flow winds are only expected to drop into the 60s overnight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Initial short wave will track northeast through the area during the morning. This will take scattered showers and perhaps some thunderstorms along with it. 12Z guidance has become less organized with this first round of precipitation and cannot justify anything higher than chance PoPs. Although low clouds will be left behind the precipitation, it does appear that some instability will develop as cooler temperatures aloft associated with a short wave trough spreads across the region. This may be sufficient for new development of showers and thunderstorms as a cold front crosses the area. At this point, expect activity to be scattered at most. High pressure will build in Thursday night allowing for skies to clear. Expect sufficient cloud cover to go a bit below guidance for highs Thursday while MOS seemed reasonable with lows Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Friday morning is the calm before the storm, as the day starts off dry. Some weak shower activity is possible nw of I-71 Friday afternoon. Highs on Friday will range from the lower 70s in the nw to upper 70s along the Ohio River. While all models are suggesting a widespread rain event in the Ohio Valley beginning Friday night, there continues to be a large spread in the timing and placement of the heaviest QPF. Models bring a swath of convection ne into the region Friday night along a developing frontal boundary. It appears that the best chance of rain by 12Z Saturday while be across central Indiana into the Whitewater and upper Miami Valleys. The boundary tries to buckle northward on Saturday, pushing the better chance of rain to the north and northwest of the fa. Still held onto chance PoPs in case something pops in the warm sector. The region will see a wide range of highs for Saturday, with southern section making the mid 80s, while the nw counties will be held around 70 or the upper 60s due to the clouds and rain. As a deep H5 low kicks out of the Rockies on Sunday, the warm sector will expand northward. An isolated shower will be possible and highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Models have adjusted the timing of a strong cold front passage. The 12Z run now have the front around the Ohio/Indiana border around 12Z Monday. Expect a line of showers and thunderstorms late Sunday night and Monday morning with fropa. It looks like highs will be early in the day with falling temperature during the afternoon. Temperatures will be much colder behind this front for the middle of next week. Highs will be down into the 60s. Models are now suggesting that precipitation might try and develop along the Ohio River for the middle of the week. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Dry conditions are expected for most of the overnight hours. Showers will move across the TAF sites during the morning to mid afternoon hours. Cannot rule out some isolated thunderstorms as well, however instability is limited. Due to the expected isolated nature of the thunderstorms have left out of the TAFs at this time. Some MVFR cigs will be possible with the shower activity and right behind the shower activity. Winds will pick up for the day on Thursday with some wind gusts around 25 knots possible. Isolated higher gusts will be possible. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities with a chance of thunderstorms are possible Friday night into Monday. Wind gusts to 30 kt possible Sunday through Monday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Sites AVIATION...Novak

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