Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 142007 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 407 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN ENERGETIC COLD FRONT ORIENTED FROM TOLEDO TO EVANSVILLE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CROSS THE REST OF THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND IT...CENTERING ITSELF ALONG THE OHIO/WEST VIRGINIA LINE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUTH FLOW WILL LET THE END OF THE WEEK WARM A BIT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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SHOWERS OVER THE CWA HAVE BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL BLOSSOM AS THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT PROVIDES AMPLE LOW LEVEL LIFT TO THE REGION. H8 TROUGH IS IN EASTERN OHIO AND PA/WV AREA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO DROP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK TOWARDS DAYBREAK ACROSS THE CINCY METRO AREA AND A FREEZE WARNING IS IN ORDER FOR THE EARLY PART OF TUESDAY MORNING...STARTING THE LAST HOUR OF THIS PERIOD. SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT WILL SEE SOME DECENT QPF IN THE COLD AIR. THINK THAT THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SLEET BEFORE THE COLUMN COOLS SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH FOR A SNOW PROFILE. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE WARM NATURE OF THE GROUND ALREADY...I WAS ABLE TO CUT PREVIOUS SNOW AMOUNTS BY ABOUT A THIRD.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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COLD AIR BEING USHERED IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A FREEZE WARNING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE CINCY METRO AREA. A FEW COUNTIES...NAMELY BROWN...CLERMONT...AND HIGHLAND MAY DIP TO FREEZING LATE BUT THEY ARE BARELY AT THIS LEVEL FOR MORE THAN AN HOUR AND I OPTED TO LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE WARNING. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO PUSH TOWARDS 40 IN MOST LOCATIONS. WITH REGARDS TO THE FREEZE WATCH TUES NIGHT/WED MORNING...EVERYONE IN THE PROGRAM - WHICH INCLUDES THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF CWA - NEEDS TO BE INCLUDED AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOLIDLY INTO THE 20S. RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ON WEDNESDAY AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO RECOVER A GOOD BIT FROM THE MORNING LOWS. IT WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH READINGS TOPPING THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION IN SLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO PUSH INTO THE 60S. MODELS HAVE STARTED TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION FOR FRIDAYS SYSTEM KICKING OF THE NATIONS MID SECTION. THE GFS IS MUCH LESS ENERGETIC AND WOUND UP WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE STRONGER. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS ACTUALLY WEAKENED THE SYSTEM A LITTLE. FRIDAY SHOULD START OFF DRY...WITH POPS INCREASING DURING THE DAY...BUT IN THE CHC CATEGORY. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE CARRIED IN THE W. THE BEST LIFT COME ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT...SO CARRIED THE BEST POPS THEN. THE SYSTEM PULLS E ON SATURDAY...LEAVING A LINGERING CHC OF SHOWERS. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY WHILE THE ECMWF PUTS MORE FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH INDUCES A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE ENSEMBLES ARE LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION...SO DOWNPLAYED THE NRN STREAM ENERGY. WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. ON FRIDAY...HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S...WITH THE SE STAYING AROUND 70. OVER THE WEEKEND HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SCATTERED SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL REDUCE VSBYS AT TIMES. IN ADDITION GUSTY WINDS AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY SO A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT HOWEVER THE COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY IS LOW AND THEREFORE HAVE LEFT ANY THUNDER MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME HOWEVER STILL EXPECT WIND GUSTS AROUND 18 TO 20 KNOTS. CIGS WILL LOWER AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND GRADUALLY BECOME IFR. LIMITED MENTION OF SHOWERS TO VCSH FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA A PERIOD OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED. EXPECT VSBYS TO DROP DOWN INTO THE IFR CATEGORY WITH THE SNOW. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL STAY UP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE CLOUD COVER DECREASES ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO AGAIN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WITH THE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD MOST OF THE AREA TAF SITES WILL BE VFR HOWEVER CIGS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE MVFR CATEGORY AT KDAY. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OHZ077>082-088. FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR OHZ077. KY...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ089>100. FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ089>092- 094-095. IN...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR INZ073>075-080. FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR INZ073>075- 080.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...NOVAK

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