Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 202006 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH Issued by National Weather Service Jackson KY 406 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A thunderstorm complex that has developed over northern IL has shifted southeast along a warm front anchored along a line from central IL into southern IN and into northern KY. This will pass through southern OH this evening and into tonight. Showers and some isolated thunderstorms will be possible through this evening.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
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An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a thunderstorm complex is passing through southwestern OH at this time. While, cloud tops are still quite cool with this activity, surface temps over ILN area are still very cool and will expect this complex to weaken heading into the evening. A few instances of heavy rainfall and some isolated thunder is still possible.
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&& .SHORT TERM /5 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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The mentioned area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a complex will pass through the area this evening and should exit by 06z tonight. A few patchy instances of fog will be possible as a very saturated region will create some low ceilings and fog. Low pressure along the central MS Valley will press east but looks to stay south of the area as it passes along northern Kentucky. This will keep much of the precip associated with the low to the south and any rainfall chance will be along the OH River and into northern KY Tuesday evening. Heading into Tuesday night, with low pressure passing to the east, cold temperatures will filter in behind the area with lows in the mid to upper 20s for lows into Wednesday morning.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure at the surface and aloft will generally provide dry weather to end the work week with temperatures jumping from around 40 on Wednesday into the 60s by Friday. A warm front lifting through the region Thursday night and Friday morning may generate a few showers, especially over our northern counties. A vertically stacked low pressure system will then ride northeastward up the Ohio River Valley over the weekend. Models are fairly consistent now indicating that the ILN forecast area remains in the warm sector through much of the day Saturday before a cold front passes Saturday night. Painted a picture of increasing PoPs from west to east beginning late Friday night and peaking Saturday evening, with a few thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon and evening. Lesser rain chances will linger Sunday and even into Monday as the parent upper low fills and meanders northeastward slowly across the region. Temperatures only cool slightly behind our weekend system with forecast highs dropping from the 60s to near 70 on Saturday down into the upper 50s to low 60s on Sunday. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Much of the shower and thunderstorm activity has moved out of the forecast area. This also has left some IFR and below cigs hanging around some of the terminals. Will expect some VFR conditions moving in this afternoon for a couple hours as cigs lift and visibilities increase. By 22z at most terminals, the development of the next complex of showers and thunderstorms will move through the area. This will slowly bring down cigs and visibility after 00z and will likely keep below IFR cigs and IFR visibility in mist hanging around through the morning hours. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities expected Tuesday morning. MVFR ceilings and visibility`s possible Thursday and Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJS NEAR TERM...DJS SHORT TERM...DJS LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...DJS

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