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000
FXUS61 KILN 172003
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
403 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will move through the region late in the overnight
and into the morning on Friday. High pressure will then briefly
move into the region, however another disturbance is expected
to bring additional precipitation chances to the region for
Saturday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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A line of thunderstorms will continue to move across the
forecast area through the early evening hours. Lapse rates are
not overly impressive and have been a limiting factor with this
event. There is decent instability and moisture. The line is
moving into better dcape values across southeastern portions of
the region. Expect a damaging wind threat potential to continue
as the line moves east through peak heating of the day. The main
threat will be damaging wind, however cannot rule out an
isolated tornado or isolated flooding with the heavy rainfall.

Storm activity will diminish briefly after this line passes
however another disturbance is expected to work into the region
from the southwest bringing additional showers and some embedded
thunderstorms to the region overnight in advance of a cold front.
Expect precipitation to move out of the region by the end of
the near term.

Went close to guidance for low temperatures during the
overnight hours. Some clouds are expected to linger through the
overnight hours with stratus possible.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Dry conditions are expected for much of Friday and into Friday
night. A quick moving upper level disturbance will approach the
region late in the overnight Friday night and therefore
introduced some precipitation chances across northwestern
portions of the area. Went close to conshort and superblend for
temperatures during this time.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Period begins with a H5 s/w swinging through the srn Great Lakes.
Extended models still are showing a range in their QPF forecasts.
The NAM is the driest, with very little QPF produced while the
Canadian hemispheric carries the most. Will continue with a
north/south gradient in the PoPs, going from 30 in the north to 10
in nrn KY. Highs will be seasonal ranging from 80 to 85
degrees.

The s/w pulls away Saturday night, allowing high pressure to build
in at the surface. The high will keep the region dry Sunday into
Monday. By Tuesday, models drop energy into the region from the
Great Lakes, bringing scattered thunderstorms. Cold front will drop
through the region Tuesday night lowering pcpn chances from n to s.
There are timing differences so kept PoPs across the entire fa
Tuesday night.

Front will gradually pull away from the from region on
Wednesday, bringing an end to the pcpn threat.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Thunderstorms will move into the TAF sites this afternoon and
into the early evening hours. Some shower activity will linger
into the first part of the overnight hours. Dry conditions are
then expected for the later part of the overnight hours and into
the day on Friday.

Winds will be gusty this afternoon around 20 to 25 knots. Wind
gusts will diminish tonight, however expect additional wind
gusts during the afternoon hours on Friday.

Although most cigs are expected to be VFR cannot rule out some
isolated MVFR cigs. Vsbys will also be reduced with some of the
thunderstorm activity. Model soundings are indicating MVFR To
IFR cigs developing later in the overnight hours. Some MVFR
vsbys will also be possible during this time. Cu are expected
for the daytime hours on Friday.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible on Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Novak
NEAR TERM...Novak
SHORT TERM...Novak
LONG TERM...Sites
AVIATION...Novak