-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 142007
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
407 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
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AN ENERGETIC COLD FRONT ORIENTED FROM TOLEDO TO EVANSVILLE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CROSS THE REST OF THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND IT...CENTERING ITSELF ALONG THE
OHIO/WEST VIRGINIA LINE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUTH FLOW WILL LET
THE END OF THE WEEK WARM A BIT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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SHOWERS OVER THE CWA HAVE BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON BUT
THE MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL
BLOSSOM AS THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT PROVIDES AMPLE LOW LEVEL
LIFT TO THE REGION. H8 TROUGH IS IN EASTERN OHIO AND PA/WV AREA BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO DROP BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK TOWARDS DAYBREAK ACROSS THE CINCY METRO AREA AND A
FREEZE WARNING IS IN ORDER FOR THE EARLY PART OF TUESDAY
MORNING...STARTING THE LAST HOUR OF THIS PERIOD.

SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT WILL SEE SOME DECENT
QPF IN THE COLD AIR. THINK THAT THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SLEET
BEFORE THE COLUMN COOLS SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH FOR A SNOW PROFILE.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE WARM NATURE OF THE GROUND ALREADY...I WAS
ABLE TO CUT PREVIOUS SNOW AMOUNTS BY ABOUT A THIRD.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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COLD AIR BEING USHERED IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A
FREEZE WARNING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE CINCY METRO AREA. A FEW
COUNTIES...NAMELY BROWN...CLERMONT...AND HIGHLAND MAY DIP TO
FREEZING LATE BUT THEY ARE BARELY AT THIS LEVEL FOR MORE THAN AN
HOUR AND I OPTED TO LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE WARNING. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO PUSH TOWARDS 40 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

WITH REGARDS TO THE FREEZE WATCH TUES NIGHT/WED MORNING...EVERYONE
IN THE PROGRAM - WHICH INCLUDES THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF CWA - NEEDS
TO BE INCLUDED AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOLIDLY INTO THE 20S.

RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ON WEDNESDAY AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RECOVER A GOOD BIT FROM THE MORNING LOWS. IT WILL STILL BE ON THE
COOL SIDE WITH READINGS TOPPING THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION IN SLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO PUSH INTO THE 60S.

MODELS HAVE STARTED TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION FOR FRIDAYS SYSTEM
KICKING OF THE NATIONS MID SECTION. THE GFS IS MUCH LESS ENERGETIC
AND WOUND UP WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE STRONGER. THE 12Z ECMWF
HAS ACTUALLY WEAKENED THE SYSTEM A LITTLE. FRIDAY SHOULD START OFF
DRY...WITH POPS INCREASING DURING THE DAY...BUT IN THE CHC CATEGORY.
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE CARRIED IN THE W. THE BEST LIFT COME ACROSS
FRIDAY NIGHT...SO CARRIED THE BEST POPS THEN. THE SYSTEM PULLS E ON
SATURDAY...LEAVING A LINGERING CHC OF SHOWERS.

OVER THE WEEKEND...THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY WHILE
THE ECMWF PUTS MORE FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH INDUCES A
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE ENSEMBLES ARE LEANING
TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION...SO DOWNPLAYED THE NRN STREAM ENERGY.

WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. ON FRIDAY...HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S...WITH THE SE STAYING AROUND 70. OVER THE
WEEKEND HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL REDUCE VSBYS AT
TIMES. IN ADDITION GUSTY WINDS AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY SO A THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT HOWEVER THE COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY IS LOW AND
THEREFORE HAVE LEFT ANY THUNDER MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME HOWEVER
STILL EXPECT WIND GUSTS AROUND 18 TO 20 KNOTS. CIGS WILL LOWER
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND GRADUALLY BECOME IFR.
LIMITED MENTION OF SHOWERS TO VCSH FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP
AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN
HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA A PERIOD OF SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED. EXPECT VSBYS TO DROP DOWN INTO THE IFR CATEGORY WITH THE
SNOW. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL STAY UP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE CLOUD COVER DECREASES
ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT CLOUD COVER
TO AGAIN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WITH
THE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD MOST OF THE
AREA TAF SITES WILL BE VFR HOWEVER CIGS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER IN
THE MVFR CATEGORY AT KDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR OHZ077>082-088.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR OHZ077.
KY...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR KYZ089>100.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ089>092-
     094-095.
IN...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR INZ073>075-080.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR INZ073>075-
     080.
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&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK