Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 211041 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 641 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND BRING A THREAT FOR FROST THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS...EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY WILL SEE A SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE LAST LINGERING SHOWER WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COLD POOL OF AIR WORKING IN UNDERNEATH THE LINGERING UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE TO BRING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CLOUD COVER AND WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 50S TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STILL BE FOUND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE CWA TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WITH THE LOW WILL LIMIT RUNAWAY LOW TEMPERATURES BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES COULD CLEAR MORE AND TEMPERATURES WOULD NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TOWARDS THE VALUES THAT WOULD SUPPORT FROST. HOWEVER...WIND SHOULD STAY UP TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR...EVEN IF SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPS DROP. CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AS IT DROPS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE DROPOFF IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALSO LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE WITH RIDGING ALOFT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BRINGING A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR FROST FOR THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS COOL START...FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AND A WARMUP WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... RIDGING ALOFT AND AT SFC OVER THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NORTH NEAR 60 FAR SOUTH. NORTHERN PORTION OF MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BE PINCHED OFF WITH EMBEDDED S/W DROPPING SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED SO WILL ONLY SHOW AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LARGE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S...IN THE MID 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW ON SUNDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S NE TO THE LOWER 70S SW ON MONDAY. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VORT LOBE WILL ROTATE AROUND A DEEPENING H5 LOW OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT WILL BE ACROSS THE ERN TAFS. THIS WILL GIVE THOSE LOCATIONS A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING A SCATTERED SHOWER THIS MORNING. CIGS ACROSS THE WRN TAFS WILL BE VFR THIS MORNING...BEFORE MVFR CIGS WORK IN. THE ERN TAFS HOWEVER SHOULD BE MVFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER TONIGHT RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. .OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...SITES

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