Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 190850 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 450 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A frontal boundary across the region will act as a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms today into Saturday. A cold front will move into the region Sunday, providing a greater chance for precipitation, before drier and cooler conditions move into the area on Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Convection continues to bubble across the fa as a cdfnt drops south. Latest mesoscale models are indicating that the convection will see a minimum around sunrise this morning before beginning to redevelop with the heating of the day. Atmosphere becomes moderately unstable by afternoon as CAPES reach 2-3K J/kg. Timing and placement for any one location will be difficult due to the pop-up nature of the storms. The best coverage of storms should be late in the afternoon. Decided to keep PoPs in the chance category based on the uncertainty. Highs this afternoon will see a big range across the fa. West Central Ohio will be north of the front. Highs will only make the lower 70s. Temperatures will increase rapidly, reaching only lower 80s around the Ohio River.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
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The front will linger across region the tonight, before lifting northward on Saturday. Afternoon convection will linger into the evening hours, but should decrease as the night progresses. Lows tonight will range from the mid 50s in the extreme northern counties to the mid 60s in nrn KY. On Saturday, the H5 low will pushing out thru the Great Plains. In response a sfc low will develop and lift ne into the upper MS valley. This is where the best coverage of thunderstorms will be. They will remain scattered in nature across the fa. Highs on Saturday will be in the lower to mid 80s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Surface wave tracks across the Great Lakes with associated cold front pushing east across the region Sunday. Model solutions generally a little quicker with the frontal passage. This will bring an enhanced chance for thunderstorms. Have continued likely pops with a period of categorical during the afternoon. With clouds and precipitation, temperatures will be a little cooler, with Sundays highs ranging from the mid 70s west to 80 east. A lingering chance of a post frontal rain shower Sunday night and then drying out Monday as surface high pressure providing a temporary dry period early next week. Cooler temperatures expected Monday with highs a little below normal, ranging from the upper 60s northwest to the lower 70s southeast. Jet energy to carve out mid/upr level low over the Mid MS Vly next week. ECMWF is deeper and further east, so pcpn onset a little delayed and lingers longer. GFS solution is less amplified and more progressive. Uncertainty increases with model solutions diverging on timing and amplitude of this system. Have chance pops developing Tuesday afternoon and across the region Wednesday. Have lingered chance pops into early Thursday and then diminish pops as the upper low is expected to shift east. Highs Tuesday will be close to normal with and generally 70 to 75, and then cooler Wednesday from the lower 60s nw to upper 60s se. Cool readings expected to continue next Thursday with highs in the mid and upper 60s.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A cold front is moving south through the region this morning and scattered thunderstorm activity will occur as it passes. A variable wind field will be found today as the front stalls along the Ohio River. After a brief respite in activity this morning, the front will lift northward during the afternoon and storms will fire again as an upper level shortwave works in from the west. Some storms from the later part of the day will linger into the evening but activity will be on a downward trend overnight. Added some pre-dawn fog to areas that saw overnight showers, basically all taf sites except KCVG and KLUK. Outside of any thunderstorm activity, VFR conditions are expected. As noted in the earlier discussion, the scattered nature of the storms and model uncertainty do not allow for precise timing of occurrence at any particular TAF site. Continue to keep conditions VFR for this issuance but threw some MVFR conditions in tempo groups later this evening. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms with MVFR conditions are possible through Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hatzos/Sites NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...AR/Sites AVIATION...Franks

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