Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 260627 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 227 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...OFFERING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... DIURNAL CU AND ASSOCIATED ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR FA HAVE PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED EARLY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INDIANA IS CONTINUING TO PROGRESS VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN FOR MORE OF A SOUTHERLY ADVECTION INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. WILL GO AHEAD AND ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST...BUT WITH THE AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA MORE STABLE...EXPECT TO SEE AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND TO ANYTHING THAT MAKES IT IN. EXPECT LOWS AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DROP OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...A SHORT WAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS A COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL TRAVEL BEFORE STALLING. SO THE CHANCE OF STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER FORECAST. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION WHICH OCCURRED UPSTREAM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO THIN TOWARD SUNRISE. IN THE MOIST AIRMASS WITH LIGHT WIND FLOW AND THINNING CLOUDS EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KLUK/KILN WHERE IFR CONDITIONS ARE FCST. MIST/FOG WILL BURN OFF ON THIS MORNING BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS S/W ENERGY DROPS THRU THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO STAY TO THE NORTH TODAY AND THEN AFFECT THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM... AVIATION...AR

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