Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 210834 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 434 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure centered along the Atlantic Coast will keep dry weather over the Ohio Valley today and Sunday. A cold front and wave of low pressure will bring showers on Monday. Showers will linger on Tuesday when an upper trough is forecast to move in from the northwest.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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High pressure centered over Pennsylvania early this morning will become positioned along the Mid Atlantic Coast by 6 pm. Dry weather will persist in subsidence circulating around the high. Temperatures will be well above normal, with highs reaching the mid and upper 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
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High pressure will continue to progress northeast to the Canadian Maritimes on Sunday. No precip is expected again, though clouds will increase as moisture transport grows ahead of a cold front and upper trough. Even with diminished insolation, continued warm advection will allow highs in the mid and upper 70s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Weather pattern change to take place with mid level ridge shifting east and long wave trof settling across the northern tier of state and into the Great Lakes early next week. Model solutions continue to trend toward a slower onset of precipitation. Therefore, have held off pcpn until late Sunday night with the approach of surface cold front. Model solutions continue to differ on timing of long wave trof and therefore the track of southern cutoff mid level low. These differences will affect the amount of QPF and placement of heavier rain axis. Will ramp pops up to likely early Monday afternoon and categorical during the late afternoon into Monday night as surface wave develops along the surface front. Expect cooler temperatures Monday with highs in the upper 60s west to lower 70s east . Rain event of 1 to 2 inches will be possible early next week but due to the uncertainty of the interaction with the cutoff low, confidence in placement of the heavier rain axis is low. Have a mention of moderate rain Monday afternoon into Monday night. Long wave mid/upr level trof to settle into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley at mid week. Model solutions have trended deeper with this feature. This will keep a chance of a shower in the forecast with the highest pops north Tuesday. Highs Tuesday are expected to be a little below normal, and generally between 55 and 60. A secondary s/w trof to drop down into the mean trof position keeping the threat of showers in the fcst Wednesday. Wednesday looks to be the coldest day of the week with highs in the lower 50s, which is 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Depending on cloud cover, frost will be possible Wednesday night with lows in the mid/upr 30s. After a cold start, temperatures will moderate some on Thursday with highs in the upper 50s to near 60. Flow backs with next front approaching the area late in the week into next weekend. Latest ECMWF solution is more amplified and therefore slower than progressive GFS. Due to low confidence have limited pops to low chance Friday afternoon west and then across the area Saturday. Temperatures will continue to moderate with highs Friday of 60 to 65. Clouds and pcpn will hold temperatures down Saturday with highs of 55 to 60.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Look for VFR to continue except at LUK where FG is reducing visibility. Will monitor other TAF sites for possible BR formation. Otherwise expect cirrus and altocumulus to overspread all sites under surface high pressure well ahead of a deepening upper trough. Winds from the south will increase close to 10 knots this afternoon. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Sunday night through Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Coniglio

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