Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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219 FXUS61 KILN 200225 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 925 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the area through Monday morning before sliding east of the Ohio Valley Monday afternoon. Much above normal temperatures will continue through at least the first part of the week. A weak cold front will provide a chance of rain Tuesday, but the unseasonably warm stretch will continue through the upcoming workweek. Drier conditions are expected midweek before rain chances return for the end of the workweek with the approach of a storm system. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Skies have cleared across the area this evening and with surface high pressure in place, winds will continue to go light and variable overnight. With good radiational cooling this evening, temperatures have already fallen off with temperatures generally running in the lower to mid 40s. A few outlying areas have even dropped into the upper 30s already. Areas of fog have started to develop so think we will see more fog than stratus overnight and will trend the forecast accordingly. Based on the current temperatures, will also nudge down overnight lows a bit.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... During the day Monday an upper level trough axis over the Western United States will amplify and slowly head east. As this happens mid level ridging over the CWA will also amplify. This will quickly push 850 mb temperatures towards 10 degrees C. The main hold back for high temperatures Monday afternoon will be the lower clouds/ fog that forms Monday morning. Monday night the upper level trough axis will break apart with the southern branch over Southeast Texas wrapping up into an upper level low and the northern branch pulling northeast towards the Hudson Bay. Tuesday morning the upper level energy will approach the area from the west with a splitting jet just north of the area. PWATs on both the GFS and NAM are around 1.20". This would be near the all time daily record. For these reasons have raised PoPs Tuesday morning. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Well above normal temperatures are expected from Tuesday through Friday despite a cold front moving through during the day on Tuesday. Low level moisture will be trapped across the area Wednesday keeping clouds in the forecast for Wednesday. A frontal boundary will meander around the area for Wednesday night into Thursday before lifting northward as a warm front. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible with this feature. Warm air will continue to surge into the area on Friday allowing for temperatures in the 60s and 70s. A cold front will move through Friday evening into Friday night. Additional showers and thunderstorms will move through. Gusty winds will especially be possible Friday night with and after the frontal passage. Cooler conditions will be present for the remainder of the long term. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The majority of the stratus eroded away through the afternoon hours but there is still a narrow band of lower clouds across northeast Kentucky and southeast Ohio. Surface high pressure will remain in place across the region tonight into Monday. With light winds expected, the boundary layer is forecast to saturate once again tonight but the NAM is somewhat more aggressive with this than the GFS. The NAM and NAM based higher res models are suggesting mainly fog at the northern TAF sites but are hinting at perhaps more of a low stratus layer at KCVG/KLUK. This may actually end up being the case if some of the lower clouds currently along the Ohio River are able to expand back toward KCVG/KLUK before the better fog develops. Either way though, expect to see some IFR cigs/VVs and vsbys develop later tonight at all of the TAF sites. These should linger through much of the morning hours on Monday before eroding away by afternoon. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible through Friday. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures Date CVG CMH DAY Mon 2/20 72(1891/2016) 68(1891/2016) 69(2016) Tue 2/21 70(1930) 71(1997) 68(1930) Wed 2/22 71(1922) 70(1930) 69(1922) Thu 2/23 72(1985/1996) 66(1906/1985) 68(1985) Fri 2/24 72(1930) 72(1961) 67(1930/1961) && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...JGL CLIMATE...

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