Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 242201 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 501 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING...PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH LATER ON CHRISTMAS DAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR MAINLY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 4 PM...DEEPENING LOW WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT ALREADY PUSHING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ILN CWA. MEAGER INSTABILITY (MUCAPE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AT MOST) AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALLOWED A LINE OF LOW TOPPED HEAVY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH IS RAPIDLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD. HAVE SEEN ISOLATED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE GRIDS THROUGH 6 PM. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT IS LEADING TO STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH IS ALLOWING SOME GUSTY WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND HAS NECESSITATED SOME SEVERE T-STORM WARNINGS WITHIN THE ILN AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THESE SHOWERS. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN SYNOPTIC WINDS AND GUSTS THIS EVENING. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT...BUT EXPECT OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SYNOPTIC GUSTS MEET ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST OVER NORTHERN OHIO. WILL MONITOR WIND TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. REGARDLESS...THE GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 06Z. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY SLOT MOVING IN BEHIND THE POST FRONTAL SHOWERS...SO THERE WILL BE A DRY PERIOD THIS EVENING BEFORE SOME WRAP AROUND CAA SHOWERS MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAVORABLE PROFILE ALOFT FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT...NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL BUT OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST TO UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST. THUS EXPECT JUST RAIN IN OUR SOUTHEAST...A CHANGE TO SNOW IN OUR NORTHWEST...AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN BETWEEN. NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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ANY LINGERING SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF CHRISTMAS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. WILL START TO SEE CLOUDS DIMINISH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ON ITS BACKSIDE WILL DRAW WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO OUR AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT RELATIVE TO 00Z...AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN FEATURES A TROUGH IN PLACE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS PATTERN FLATTENS AND BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL THROUGH MONDAY AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...AND ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES EJECTS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS ENERGY WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CHANGE SOME OF THE RAIN TO SNOW ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF I-71. ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL. BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS TRIED TO SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY...SPREADING A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW INTO THE AREA. THE 00Z PARALLEL GFS KEPT THE AREA DRY. 12Z RUNS TRENDED TOWARD THE PARALLEL GFS...AND THIS FORECAST PACKAGE MAINTAINS ONLY LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP MONDAY...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF I-71. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY TUESDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF AND PARALLEL GFS FOCUS MORE ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM FOR PRECIP PRODUCTION. THIS FORECAST WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES WERE DECREASED A BIT FOR THIS SAME TIME IN THE EVENT TROUGHING DOES BECOME MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE EAST.
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&& .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LIES JUST WEST OF DAY/CVG AND WILL PASS THROUGH THESE TWO SITES IN THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS AFTER TAF ISSUANCE...AND THEN ACCELERATE EAST ACROSS LUK/ILN THROUGH 20Z AND THEN CMH/LCK BY 22Z. LGT-MOD SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN ABRUPTLY TO THE WEST AS THE FRONT PASSES WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTS IN ATTENDANT SHOWERS. THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS CONTINUES INTO EARLY-MIDDLE EVENING HOURS AS COLD AIR AND PRESSURE RISES SWEEP ACROSS THE TAF SITES...BEFORE WINDS SETTLE DOWN /BUT STILL GUSTY/ LATER IN THE NIGHT AND BACK TO THE SW. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THREAT FOR THUNDER PROBABLY MOST CONFINED TO LCK/CMH AND POSSIBLY ILN. SHOULD BE MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THE SHOWERS/FOG AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MOIST UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES. SHOULD SEE VSBY IMPROVE AS THE STRONGER WINDS/COLDER TEMPS ARRIVE AND SCOUR OUT THE FOG. CIGS WILL SHOULD REMAIN IFR /EXCEPT CENTRAL OHIO -- MVFR/ IN THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL REMAIN IFR FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL. EVENTUALLY...DRIER AIR/COLD ADVECTION WILL LIFT CIGS UP TO MVFR LEVELS LATER THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE. OUTLOOK...WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ060-061- 070>072-077>082-088. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051>056-062>065-073-074. KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100. IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059- 066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KURZ NEAR TERM...KURZ SHORT TERM...KURZ LONG TERM...SHOBE2 AVIATION...BINAU

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