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000
FXUS61 KILN 151859
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
259 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
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Showers will taper off through late afternoon as a cold front
pushes east across the region. The cold front will usher in a
drier and cooler airmass for the first part of the week. Dry
conditions will then persist through the end of the week
as temperatures slowly moderate.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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The cold front is currently stretching from north central Ohio
down into far southwest Ohio/northern Kentucky. The shower
activity along and just behind the front has been gradually
decreasing in coverage this afternoon. Meanwhile, we are
beginning to see an uptick in convective activity with the
narrow line out ahead of the front currently moving through
central Ohio. This may continue to fill in a bit through late
afternoon before the front moves through so will linger a slight
chance of thunder across our east for the next couple of hours.
Otherwise, shower activity along and behind the front should
taper off from the west through late afternoon, possibly
lingering into early evening across our far southeast.

The cloud forecast for tonight is tricky as there is a fair
amount of wrap around cloud cover back to our northwest. Some of
this will likely rotate down into our area through this evening
but it is looking at least somewhat cellular so there may be
some dissipation after sunset. However, there is also a
secondary mid level short wave forecast to pivot across the
southern Great Lakes overnight. The combination of this and a
fetch of moisture off of Lake Michigan may also allow for some
lingering clouds tonight.

In continued low level CAA behind the front, temperatures will
fall into the low to mid 40s by late tonight.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Surface high pressure will build in from the southwest Monday
into Monday night with its axis situated west to east along the
Ohio River by Monday night. This will lead to dry and cool
conditions with highs on Monday only in the mid to upper 50s.
With the clear skies and light winds Monday night, will undercut
temperatures a bit with lows mainly in the mid to upper 30s.
This will likely lead to some frost development, especially
across southern portions of our area, closer to the ridge axis.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Surface and upper flow is backed around from neutral to a return to
SW flow for much of the forecast period, with seasonable high
temperatures giving way to a return to above normal temperatures and
dry conditions through the latter part of the week. Overall
uneventful extended with GFS/ECMWF and GFSE in better than average
agreement with a ridge building in from the southern plains and
relaxing the gradient, allowing very light SW flow and sunny skies.

Low temperatures Tuesday night will begin to moderate, so that lows
will generally be at or above 40 in all but the far eastern forecast
area where upper 30s will linger. A return to low 70s Thursday and
then mid 70s by Fri/Sat with overnight lows in the 40s to near
50/low 50s by the weekend.

Previous runs indicating a dry shortwave pushing through the region
Thurs/Thu night now have this energy well north of the area over
Ontario/Quebec, so no precipitation expected for the period.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The cold front is pushing into our area from the west, currently
stretching from northwest Ohio into southeast Indiana. The bulk
of the shower activity is mainly along and just behind the
front with more spotty shower activity out ahead of it. With
this in mind, will linger a mention of shower activity a bit
longer in the TAFs. Southwest winds gusting into the 25 to 35
knot range will become west to northwest with the passage of
the frontal passage over the next couple of hours. Out ahead of
the front, cigs have bumped up into VFR in places but think
they will come back down into MVFR once the front goes through.
Models are suggesting at least some partial clearing overnight
but based on upstream satellite imagery, will go ahead and
linger some clouds on into Monday morning.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...JDR
AVIATION...JGL