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000
FXUS61 KILN 210153
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
953 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will cross southeast through the area tonight,
wash out between the I-70 corridor and the Ohio River on
Wednesday, and lift northeast of the region Wednesday night. A
stronger cold front will cross the region later on Friday. In
the wake of Fridays front, colder air will be pushed into the
region with below normal temperatures expected for the latter
part of the weekend and early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
An area of showers and thunderstorms that has been moving
southeast through the western Ohio Valley through the afternoon
and evening hours has just begun to work into the NW part of the
CWA. Although the lightning has since dissipated, the activity
continues to hold together fairly well as it tracks into the
area. Nevertheless, do expect a gradual weakening trend as it
moves further into the area.

This being said, did expand and increase PoPs just a bit early
tonight, but kept the fcst trend of a gradual drying out through
the overnight period - with just a chance/slight chance PoPs
lingering along and north of the I-70 corridor through the end
of the near term period.

The increase in cloud cover associated with the shower activity
may act to keep temps up a bit late tonight, but still expect
lows to bottom out generally in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A lingering light shower or more specifically sprinkles under
more cloudy conditions will be found tomorrow between the I-70
corridor and the Ohio River, focused on the eastern portions of
the CWA. This is as the surface front strings out and the upper
level forcing exits to the east.

Highs will be in the mid 80s, with overnight lows dropping to
the mid 60s under an increasingly moist airmass.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Zonal flow with a band of westerlies across the Great Lakes at
mid week. Initial embedded shortwave, along with moderate
instability will lead to a chance of thunderstorms Thursday
afternoon. Better bulk shear and instability is expected to be
located across the north with better moisture across the south.
Have adjusted chance category pops with highest pops north and
south and a relative min across the central FA. Temperatures
look to be around 5 degrees above normal with highs on Thursday
in the upper 80s.

More significant shortwave and associated surface frontal system to
drop into the area as moisture increases from the south ahead of the
remnants of a tropical system Friday. Will bump up pops to
categorical south and likely elsewhere. Temperatures look to be
closer to normal with highs Friday generally in the lower 80s.

Remnants of tropical system to get caught up in the westerlies and
track through the TN/OH valleys Friday night/Saturday. Model spread
exists regarding the exact track and timing of this system. However,
consensus forecasts suggests that the heavy rain axis will remain
south ILN/s FA. Will diminish pops from northwest to south late
Friday night into Saturday. Expect Saturdays highs around 80.

Mid level trof to develop over the Great Lakes Sunday. Model
solutions less amplified with this trof. Will limit pops to low
chance far north and slight chance elsewhere Sunday. Expect Sundays
highs to range from the upper 70s northwest to the lower 80s
southeast.

With the mid level trof lagging across the Great Lakes can not rule
out an afternoon shower mainly across the north Monday. Will limit
these pops to slight chance. Temperatures look to be cooler with
highs in the mid/upper 70s.

Surface high pressure to build across the Ohio Valley keeping the
region dry and cooler Tuesday. Expect Tuesdays highs in the
mid/upper 70s. Return moisture on the back side of surface high
pressure will lead to a chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night into
Wednesday across the north.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Convection over nrn IN will drop down towards the tafs this
evening. Latest CAMs are indicating that it could hold together
into KDAY. So added a VCSH to KDAY around 04Z, lasting for a
couple of hours. VFR cigs from the convection will also work
into the nrn tafs this evening, then the srn tafs later tonight.

Models are suggesting that lingering SHRA could linger thru the
night around I-70 due to an area of convergence. Left a VCSH in
KCMH/KLCK for the later half of the night.

Expect the mid deck to begin to erode aft 12Z Wednesday, but a
VFR ceiling will probably affect KCMH/KLCK throughout the day

Winds will pick back up to the 8-10kt range tomorrow.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday night into Saturday
morning.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...KC/Franks
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Sites