Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
320 FXUS61 KILN 281007 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 607 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A wave of low pressure traveling along a slow moving frontal boundary will produce thunderstorms with heavy rainfall mainly in southern locations today and tonight. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible Friday when the system will be moving east. Disturbances in the upper atmosphere may help trigger a few more showers and thunderstorms in an unstable airmass Saturday and Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Stationary front lies near the Ohio River. Very moist air is evident in low levels with surface dew points in the lower 70s near the boundary. Conditions are also moist above the surface, with model soundings showing near saturation from the surface to 25000 ft. With the air column containing over 2 inches of precipitable water, and with ample lift and convergence along the boundary, widespread thunderstorms are developing even at night. In addition, a wave of low pressure traveling along the front from the west will provide additional lift and convergence especially this afternoon. This regime is highly conducive for heavy rain to occur. With heavy rainfall now occurring, have expanded Flash Flood Watch to include the Cincinnati metro area. Further expansion northward may be needed if radar trends dictate. The chance for severe thunderstorms appears low due to a lack of dry air in the mid levels, and rather weak winds aloft. Locations to the north of I-70 being farther from the frontal forcing may see only scattered thunderstorms. High temperatures ranging from the mid 80s north down to the upper 70s south will be limited by clouds and precip.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Wave of low pressure will be moving east tonight while the front sags a bit toward the south. Heavy rain will end overnight, but the chance of showers and thunderstorms will linger mainly over southern locations close to the boundary. Thunderstorms chances will persist Friday when another wave of low pressure is expected to develop to the west along the still present boundary. More showers and thunderstorms will be possible Saturday as the broad and weak area of low pressure pushes toward Ohio ahead of a digging mid level short wave. High temperatures Friday and Saturday are forecast to remain a few degrees below normal in the low to mid 80s due to clouds and precip. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Sunday another weak shortwave trough will remain in close proximity to the area with a surface front located across the CWA. This will help to bring the chance of rain right back to the area. Given the weak upper level trough quickly pulling east the cold front stalling across the area seems likely. Given the chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day have kept high temperatures near climo. Monday into Tuesday as the shortwave trough exits weak mid-level ridging will then build overhead as mid-level high pressure builds over the central United States. There still remains timing differences on when the high will build and how far it will build east. For now have just trended PoPs down. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Upper level trof over the lower Mississippi valley will lift northeast today. As a result, a surface wave of low pressure will develop and track northeast through the Ohio valley this afternoon. A surge of tropical moisture overspread the region ahead of the sfc wave as the weak sfc boundary pivots north into the area. Showers and thunderstorms will overspread the southern TAF sites early this morning. The preciptiation activity will increase in coverage after 12z, with best coverage expected along and south of the I-71 corridor. Deepest moisture to shift east of TAF sites this aftn, so expect pcpn to become widely scattered. Due lagging upper level support and unstbl airmass have kept VCTS until early evening. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms likely Thursday night through Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
OH...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for OHZ077>082-088. KY...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for KYZ089>100. IN...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for INZ073>075-080.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...JDR AVIATION...AR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.