Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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391 FXUS61 KILN 271719 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 119 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS...
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A slow-moving and weak frontal system will be a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop this weekend. Warm and humid conditions will continue through Sunday, with few areas having heat indices topping out in the mid 90s. A slightly stronger cold front will bring more numerous storms on Monday, then temperatures will return to near or just slightly above normal values beginning Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Storms that develop this afternoon look to be similar to yesterday`s heavy rainfall rates. However, they should have some movement to them where they don`t park themselves over any one particular place for any significant length of time. Pwat values remain constant over the region with 1.83" at 12Z this morning and 00Z last night, a relatively insignificant decrease from yesterday`s 12Z reading of 1.89". Steering h5 winds over the region were 5kt or less, leading to the slow movement. Today there should be about 20kt in the north, 15kt in the south. Hardly worth the mention, but will be supported by the same direction of h8 winds that will exhibit 15-20kt in the north, 10-15kt in the south. Storms should exhibit at least some slow movement to the ne to where the rainfall rates of 2"+/hr don`t park for an hour over any location. Prev discussion: Mid-level ridging will continue to be in place across the middle Ohio Valley today. With diurnal instability, there will still be scattered convection developing from midday into the afternoon hours... especially southeast of I-71. With high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s and dewpoints well into the 70s, the heat index will once again reach around 100 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
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Few changes were made to the NBM initialization this afternoon. Pops through Sat were set at a minimum of 20% as there were a lot of areas NBM was showing without any rain chances. Don`t know how it could do this given primarily airmass thunderstorms today and tonight. Capped pops through this time at 50% as well, which trimmed down a little bit of initialization pops that were likely. Convection through this time should be scattered, even as a weakening front enters from the north on Saturday. This front looks to become more diffuse as the day wears on. Although convection should occur along/near boundary, indications are that pre-frontal shallow convection may occur in the latter part of the morning. For Saturday, the front will likely stall across central Ohio. This will lead to the most instability being found across our southern and eastern counties. Therefore, have focused thunderstorm development southeast of I-71. There`s a possibility that the bulk of precip tomorrow will be showers with isolated thunder found along/s of the Ohio River. With west-northwesterly surface flow developing and some weak cool air advection, highs will be limited to the middle to upper 80s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Hot and humid conditions remain in place through Monday ahead of an approaching cold front. On Sunday, rain chances once again develop in the afternoon although probabilities and coverage should be relatively minimal compared to Monday or some of the past few days. On Monday, PWATs increase to 2+ inches which is extremely high for the Ohio Valley ahead of the aforementioned cold front. Storm chances accompany the high PWATs during peak heating in the afternoon/evening. Any storms that do develop will likely produce torrential rainfall rates which could lead to isolated flood concerns. The good news on Monday is that southwesterly flow increases which may help storms move at around 15-20 mph. Quicker storm motions should limit most flood concerns to areas where training/repeated rounds occur. The cold front likely pushes through the area on Tuesday thereby limiting the best chances for showers/storms to areas southeast of the boundary. This leaves the most likely area for rain to be along and southeast of I-71 during the day. Wednesday and Thursday are likely to be dry across the area behind the cold front as high pressure moves through. Temperatures are forecast to be slightly below average to near average. Diurnal rain chances may redevelop around Friday when southerly flow returns.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Outside of scattered convection this afternoon that should be more miss-than-hit for the terminals, VFR conditions are expected. While the likelihood of a direct hit from a storm may be low, they will be scattered about, creating wind shifts from outflows that will be erratic and gusty. Am continuing the prob30 for this afternoon and will try to amend quickly when development presents itself. Outflow winds yesterday, while erratic, were on the order of 25-30kt at times closer to the cells. When development occurs, early amendments will probably change over to a vcts versus prob30, as this would imply the storms affecting the terminals even if further away than the 5-10 mile vicinity donuts surrounding them. Guidance is fairly pitiful, only bringing ci to the region for the next 24-36 hours. Showers and a few thunderstorms found se of the I-71 corridor beginning after noon will be significantly weaker than storms these past few days. Thermodynamic profiles are notably shy on instability with short range ensembles bring mucape maxima of 2000J/kg further to the se of the I-71 corridor and not affecting terminals. Terminals along the corridor /everyone but KDAY/ are topped off at ~1500J/kg at 18Z, decreasing for the remainder of the afternoon. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible through Monday, focused in the afternoon and early evening.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ089>100. IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ050-058-059-066- 073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM...Franks SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...Campbell AVIATION...Franks