Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 271048 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 648 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS LOW WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH OUR REGION. THE FRONT WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AS A SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION. WE SHOULD SEE A MIX OF LOW... MID...AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. WARM...AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL ARRIVE WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED FOR LATE OCTOBER. 925 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE +18 C TO +20 C RANGE. MIXING THROUGH THIS LAYER WILL YIELD HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. AM FORECASTING HIGHS OF 78...78...AND 81 AT CMH...DAY...AND CVG. RECORD HIGHS APPEAR SAFE AS THEY ARE 81...81 AND 84 AT CMH...DAY...AND CVG. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... MODELS ARE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF SYNOPTIC STRENGTH AND TIMING OF WEATHER SYSTEMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH SOME RELIANCE ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS TO PIN DOWN THE TIMING OF ANTICIPATED PCPN. FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS A MID LVL TROUGH MOVES EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS LOW WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH OUR AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. AN EMBEDDED S/WV PIVOTING NE THROUGH THE REGION...ALONG WITH FRONTAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...WILL BRING CATEGORICAL POPS. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A LITTLE TIME TO WARM BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOMEWHAT STRONG...THE 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR IS NOT AT A FAVORABLE ANGLE (LESS THAN 45 DEGREES) TO THE EXPECTED ORIENTATION OF THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE PCPN BAND. THUS...A DECENT MOMENTUM PUSH EAST SEEMS TO BE LACKING THAT YOU MAY TYPICALLY SEE WITH HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS DURING THE COOL SEASON. AS A RESULT...AM NOT ANTICIPATING A SEVERE THREAT BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECAST MODELS SHOULD CONDITIONS CHANGE. PCPN IS MAINLY KATAFRONT IN NATURE...WHICH MEANS IT SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. DRIER AIR IN THE DRY SLOT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES TO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE 10 MPH TO 15 MPH RANGE. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE CLOUD AND PCPN DEPENDENT. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH CALLS FOR UPPER 60S WEST TO THE MID 70S EAST. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...HAVE GONE WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS SOLUTION WHICH PUSHES FRONTAL PCPN OUT OF OUR SOUTHEAST CWFA BY EARLY EVENING. WITH A MIX OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND LOW LEVEL CAA...LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S NW TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST. FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK S/WV WILL PASS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE FROM THE WEST. SOME CAA CUMULUS WILL BE POSSIBLE RESULTING IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER BUT MORE TYPICAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WE SHOULD SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FROST IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ENOUGH FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE PIVOTS DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. DEVELOPING CAA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SHORT WAVE WILL USHER IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY AND WE COULD END UP WITH SOME NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. FOR SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS ARE ONLY SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 40S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER OUR AREA. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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PATCHES OF CLOUDS AT AROUND 4000 FEET HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THAT HEIGHT AS THEY MOVE EAST. AS THESE CLOUDS DEPART...HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE ALL THAT REMAINS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH SSW WINDS BECOMING GUSTY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE WILL BE COMMON...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW GUSTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THAT. ON MONDAY NIGHT...GUSTS WILL BECOME INTERMITTENT...BUT 10-15 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE. IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...LOW-LEVEL VFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. .OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...HATZOS

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