Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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560 FXUS61 KILN 050516 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1216 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MUCH COLDER AIR EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... NO LARGE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING ASIDE FROM A QUICKER AND MORE DEFINITIVE CLEARING OF THE SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPS LOOKED TO BE ON TRACK SO THE PRESENT WX WAS BLENDED INTO THE CURRENT FORECAST. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY BETWEEN 900 MB AND 850 MB HAVE RESULTED IN SCATTERED FLURRIES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING...ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AS THIS OCCURS...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND FLURRIES WILL DIMINISH/COME TO AN END. FOR THE PERIOD LATE TONIGHT...SOME CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPILL INTO THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 20S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL COMBINE WITH SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS TO PRODUCE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LATE. FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST FOLLOWED BY A WEAK MID LEVEL S/WV. SOME MODELS DEPICT A SURFACE TROF AXIS WITH THIS FEATURE. MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE GFS BEING THE HIGHEST AND THE ECMWF BEING THE LEAST. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS IN TERMS OF WHETHER TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AS WE HEAD INTO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST AS GFS APPEARS TOO MOIST AND DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK. AT THE MOST THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY BE ON A DECREASE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S WITH 40S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND COLD TEMPERATURES (ESPECIALLY FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY). SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH A VERY NARROW AREA OF RIDGING MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...AND SURFACE WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING FROM SATURDAY. THE LARGE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT HELPING TO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LIQUID DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO TURN TO SNOW. MODEL AGREEMENT IS QUITE GOOD WITH REGARDS TO THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK...WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH / CLOSED LOW HAS DEPARTED. HOWEVER...TIMING OUT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE A CHALLENGE...AND IT REMAINS UNCLEAR IF THERE WILL BE ANY PROLONGED PERIODS OF SNOW DURING THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY STRETCH. WHILE POPS WILL BE KEPT LOW FOR NOW (AROUND 40 PERCENT) DUE TO THESE CONCERNS AND UNCERTAIN TIMING...IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THE RELATIVELY WARM CONDITIONS SUNDAY...WITH THE COLDEST AIR EXPECTED OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. 850MB TEMPS OF -14C TO -18C APPEAR LIKELY...AND MAX/MIN TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LOW STRATUS HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY EXITED THE CWA THIS MORNING AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN AROUND TODAY ALLOWING WINDS TO BE MOSTLY LIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE JUST EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING SOUTHWEST WINDS BACK TO THE TERMINALS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR A 5K FT DECK DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE ISSUANCE. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...FRANKS/HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...HAINES

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