Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 220555 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1255 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will remain mild through Wednesday before cooling to more seasonable levels by the end of next week. A storm system and surface low pressure center will ride up into the lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley region Sunday and then move very slowly northeastward along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians. This system will keep our weather unsettled through Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Showers continue to develop in central Ohio this evening. An axis of moisture convergence extends from this activity southwest towards the Cincinnati area. Recent HRRR/RAP runs have shown a strong signal that further precipitation will develop along and east/south of the I-71 corridor. So have increased PoPs for overnight but still kept them in the chance category for now. This is mainly falling out of a mid deck, so rainfall amounts should remain light. Temperatures will remain quite mild with a drop of only a few degrees from evening temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Storm system poised to push into the Ohio Valley by Sunday will produce some overrunning precipitation from south to north through the day. Areas along the Ohio River should expect to see rain developing by around sunrise or just after. Rain should push northward from there, entering our northern most zones by late afternoon. Forecast soundings did suggest a hint of some elevated instability. As such continued to included a mention of thunder. However, better instability appears to hold off until later in the day as the storm center gets closer to our area and generally across the southern third of our area. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A significant change in the overall mean flow will occur during the coming week, with ridging building into the western United States and troughing in the east. This will signal a return to more normal winter like temperatures late in the week along with the chance for periodic light snow showers and rain showers from Wednesday night into Friday night. However, before this transition occurs we will be focused on low pressure at the surface and aloft that will be moving out of the TN Valley northeastward up the Appalachians from Sunday night into Monday. This will bring rain to the forecast area. There is fairly good agreement among the models on this scenario and agreement that the heaviest rains will remain south and east of the forecast area. The 12Z NAM is an outlier with QPF in our area, generating in excess of 1.5 inches in parts of the southern forecast area from late Sunday into Monday night. However other models and GFS ensembles and the SREF support lower rainfall totals during this time, and this is reflected in WPC guidance and the NDFD forecast. In the wake of the low pressure moving off to our northeast, somewhat cooler air will move into the area at the start of the week. However temperatures will remain above normal, and temperatures will warm even more on Wednesday ahead of an advancing cold front. Brief ridging at the surface and aloft will build into the OH Valley and Great Lakes Tuesday, ahead of the advancing cold front. The cold front will move east of the area late Wednesday, and this will signal a downward trend in temperatures that will continue through the end of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Showers that formed earlier this evening have since started to dissipate with all TAF sites currently VFR (except KLUK). During the day today an upper level low over the TX/OK border will organize and push east with an arm of PVA moving across our southern zones. In association with this upper level lift a band of showers with potentially some thunder will work its way north and weaken as they push towards the Ohio river. Over the last couple of days models have struggled significantly on the track of the upper level low and this band of PV that is forecasted to push north. The GFS/NAM initially had the low further north meaning greater chances of rain while the ECMWF had the low further south meaning a lower chance of rain. The new 22.00z NAM is now further south and has trended towards the ECMWF. Looking at high res models there has also been a drying trend keeping the band further south. This is further supported by NAM/ GFS forecast soundings. Due to the mentioned above have trended TAFs drier. Sunday evening into Monday morning the upper level low will get pulled northeast pulling the rain northeast with it. Based off the track of the low KDAY could remain dry through the issuance. Remaining TAF sites look far enough south or east as to receive precipitation. Uncertainty still remains though as the track of the low and PV remains muddled. As the low approaches cloud bases will also begin to lower meaning VFR conditions will give way to MVFR conditions this evening and potentially IFR conditions Monday morning. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities possible into Monday night. MVFR ceilings may linger into Tuesday. MVFR ceilings possible again Wednesday and Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...Haines

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