-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 071517
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1017 AM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE MOVING OFF
TO THE EAST TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER A GOOD PART OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE LITTLE REBOUND TODAY AS AN UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH SOME UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 IN
THE SE.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY WILL RACE QUICKLY INTO THE REGION TONIGHT IN
THE BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT. PCPN WILL BE PULLED NWD THRU KY ALONG AN
INVERTED SFC TROF. THIS PCPN WILL ENCOUNTER THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
THAT SETTLED ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THAT THE PCPN WILL START AS SNOW LATE
TONIGHT IN NE KY AND THEN INTO SRN OH AND SE INDIANA SUNDAY
MORNING...BEFORE REACHING WEST CENTRAL OHIO LATER IN THE MORNING.
AS WARMER AIR ALOFT IS PULLED IN ON SUNDAY...A CHANGE TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR. IN THE SE COUNTIES A CHANGE TO LIQUID
RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN. THIS SETS UP THE BEST AREA OF
ICING FROM CMH OVER TO DAY AND CVG WHERE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH
OF ICE IS POSSIBLE. OVERALL AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE
WITH THE SYSTEM.

COOLER AIR WILL BE PULLED BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING AS A
WEAK SFC REFLECTION WORKS TO THE N. THIS CAUSE A CHANGE OVER THE
WINTRY PCPN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ALL BUT WEST
CENTRAL OHIO.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND A FRESH SNOW PACK EARLY...BUT THEN INCREASING CLOUDS
WITH SUNDAYS STORM SYSTEM. SRN LOCATIONS COULD SEE RISING
TEMPERATURES AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER
20S IN THE NW HALF OF THE FA...WITH THE SE COUNTIES MAKING THE MID 30S.
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE 30S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT...MOST OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS DRY BUT
FRIGID. RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES ARE CERTAINLY INFLUENCED BY AN
EXPECTED SNOW PACK...THUS THE RESULTING FORECAST NUMBERS WILL
PROBABLY BE ABLE TO BE IMPROVED MORE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THE
CURRENT STORM IS FINISHED AND THE SNOW PACK IS LAID OUT. SORTING
THROUGH THE USUAL ASSORTMENT OF RAW MIN TEMP BULLSEYES (WELL INTO
NEGATIVE NUMBERS)...THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS HELD
MOSTLY STEADY SINCE YESTERDAY...GIVING CONFIDENCE IN A COLD WEEK
(WITH SINGLE-DIGIT LOWS ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA). WHILE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET (BARELY) ABOVE FREEZING FOR
MOST OF THE ILN CWA EARLY ON MONDAY...SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FOUR DAYS STRAIGHT...EVEN FOR MAXES. A
SLIGHT MODERATING TREND WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY...PERHAPS LASTING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT A RAPID CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME FAIR WX SC FOUND
THROUGH THE DAY. FLOW IN CENTRAL OH MAY KEEP A FEW MVFR CIGS OVER
THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS BEFORE CLEARING. TOWARDS THE LATER PART OF THE
DAY ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY BE FILTERING IN THAT A MVFR DECK MAY
PRESENT ITSELF TOWARDS 20-24Z...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
CLOSEST TO THE COLDEST AIR.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS ARE
PUSHING BACK ANY START OF -SN AND KEEPS IT SOUTH OF TAF SITES
THROUGH 12Z. BROUGHT IN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE IN THE EXTENDED CVG
TAF AND EXPECT THEY COULD BOTH DROP TO IFR AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ045-046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/SITES
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...FRANKS