Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 271030 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 630 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING SO FAR THIS MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. IN DEVELOPING CAA...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE WITH THE LATE MARCH SUN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED...SO THIS MAY RESTRICT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD AND/OR SIGNIFICANT. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE A SPRINKLE/FLURRY FORECAST RATHER THAN SHOWERS. WITH ANY PCPN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTING MAINLY SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTH WITH MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS OUR SOUTH...BUT IF PCPN BECOMES CONVECTIVE ENOUGH...WOULD EXPECT MORE OF TREND TOWARD FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS EVEN ACROSS OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOUGH TODAY GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL CAA...THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME SUN...AND FAIRLY DEEP MIXING. WILL RANGE HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... ANY SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING. BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND ARW ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS DROPPING DOWN INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA LATER THIS EVENING AS A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD DOWN INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. 00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THEN PUSHING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A MIX ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE BEST FORCING REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WILL LIMIT POPS TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED WARM UP THROUGH MID WEEK. AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL THEN SPREAD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE AREA HAS QUICKLY DISINTEGRATED THIS MORNING WITH MVFR/VFR CLOUDS REFORMING TO THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF ISSUANCE. HIGH RES HRRR AND NMM BOTH DEVELOPING SOME FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN MOISTURE PROFILE OF SOUNDING AM EXPECTING THIS TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED. SATURDAY MORNING A WEAK BOUNDARY IS FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE NAM HINTING AT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW HAVE JUST SHOWN THE BOUNDARY WITH THE WIND SHIFT AND LEFT THE MENTION OF SNOW OUT. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...HAINES

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