Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KILN 281531
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1131 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016
A very warm and humid airmass will remain in place today and
Monday. This heat and humidity will keep a chance of thunderstorms
in the forecast. Slightly drier conditions can be expected
Tuesday, under the influence of weak surface high pressure. The
next chance for thunderstorms will occur Wednesday with the
approach of a front.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Whilt the mid level shortwave continues to track east and is a
potential focus for afternoon thunderstorm development, several of
the CAMs are focusing the greater activity further to the south on
the back side of the ridge in the southeast...where there is
greater instability and available moisture. There`s actually a bit
of a PW minimum in the far NW compared to further south. Have
slightly hedged a little higher on the thunderstorm chances in the
south as a result. Looking at the potential for any thunderstorm
activity to reach severe levels...seeing 2 distinct areas of
enhanced DCAPE...the first closer to the mid level wave across the
north and the second in the southeast. So while it remains to be
seen if these specific areas will hold the greater severe
potential, will continue to mention scattered to isolated severe
storms possible over the entire area.
Continuing the heat advisory...with of course the greatest
limitation of HI values being reached being cloud and
precipitation. Monitoring northward cloud progression in
especially our far southeast as a possible dampening on
temperatures...though surface dewpoints into the low and even mid
70s still expected.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
With no significant forcing and storms driven by instability and
interaction of outflow boundaries, expect convection to diminish
early this evening. another muggy night with lows from the upper
60s northwest to the lower 70s southeast.
Surface high pressure to build acrs the Great Lakes Monday where
mid level westerlies will exist. Meanwhile, e-w elongated mid
level ridge will stretch from the Central Plains through the TN
Valley and Del Mar Va. Weak boundary across the south may lead to
isold convective development across the south Monday afternoon.
Have limited pops to chance/slight chance. Highs in the mid/upper
80s northwest to lower 90s southeast. Heat indices look to reach
the mid/upr 90s across the far southern counties.
Weak surface ridge and a little drier air over the region Tuesday.
Have dry forecast Tuesday with only marginal instby in the far
south. Highs look to range from the mid 80s nw to near 90 far
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short wave over Hudson Bay at the beginning of the period will dig
southeast and carve out a trough across the northeast United States.
This will push a cold front through the region on Wednesday. There
is not much moisture with this front and forcing looks weak...
although cannot rule out some showers and thunderstorms in northern
counties. Warm and humid conditions will persist ahead of the front.
But a cooler and drier airmass will spread in for the rest of the
week...with temperatures at or slightly below normal.
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Conditions are VFR and are forecast to remain so for the most
part. The exception is at LUK where BR may reduce visibility late
in the forecast. Scattered thunderstorms developing by noon in the
warm and unstable airmass may occur in the vicinity of TAF sites.
Model uncertainty does not allow accurate location and timing of
thunderstorms at this point in time. Later forecasts may be able
to pinpoint the effects once the storms develop. Otherwise, sky
cover will consist mainly of mid and high clouds left over from
earlier regional convection. Winds will be under 10 knots out of
the northeast. CVG should see continued VFR and light northeast
winds after 12z Monday.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible through Wednesday...mainly in
the afternoon and evening.
OH...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for OHZ073-077>082-
KY...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for KYZ089>100.
IN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for INZ073>075-080.