Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 210153 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 953 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will cross southeast through the area tonight, wash out between the I-70 corridor and the Ohio River on Wednesday, and lift northeast of the region Wednesday night. A stronger cold front will cross the region later on Friday. In the wake of Fridays front, colder air will be pushed into the region with below normal temperatures expected for the latter part of the weekend and early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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An area of showers and thunderstorms that has been moving southeast through the western Ohio Valley through the afternoon and evening hours has just begun to work into the NW part of the CWA. Although the lightning has since dissipated, the activity continues to hold together fairly well as it tracks into the area. Nevertheless, do expect a gradual weakening trend as it moves further into the area. This being said, did expand and increase PoPs just a bit early tonight, but kept the fcst trend of a gradual drying out through the overnight period - with just a chance/slight chance PoPs lingering along and north of the I-70 corridor through the end of the near term period. The increase in cloud cover associated with the shower activity may act to keep temps up a bit late tonight, but still expect lows to bottom out generally in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A lingering light shower or more specifically sprinkles under more cloudy conditions will be found tomorrow between the I-70 corridor and the Ohio River, focused on the eastern portions of the CWA. This is as the surface front strings out and the upper level forcing exits to the east. Highs will be in the mid 80s, with overnight lows dropping to the mid 60s under an increasingly moist airmass. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Zonal flow with a band of westerlies across the Great Lakes at mid week. Initial embedded shortwave, along with moderate instability will lead to a chance of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. Better bulk shear and instability is expected to be located across the north with better moisture across the south. Have adjusted chance category pops with highest pops north and south and a relative min across the central FA. Temperatures look to be around 5 degrees above normal with highs on Thursday in the upper 80s. More significant shortwave and associated surface frontal system to drop into the area as moisture increases from the south ahead of the remnants of a tropical system Friday. Will bump up pops to categorical south and likely elsewhere. Temperatures look to be closer to normal with highs Friday generally in the lower 80s. Remnants of tropical system to get caught up in the westerlies and track through the TN/OH valleys Friday night/Saturday. Model spread exists regarding the exact track and timing of this system. However, consensus forecasts suggests that the heavy rain axis will remain south ILN/s FA. Will diminish pops from northwest to south late Friday night into Saturday. Expect Saturdays highs around 80. Mid level trof to develop over the Great Lakes Sunday. Model solutions less amplified with this trof. Will limit pops to low chance far north and slight chance elsewhere Sunday. Expect Sundays highs to range from the upper 70s northwest to the lower 80s southeast. With the mid level trof lagging across the Great Lakes can not rule out an afternoon shower mainly across the north Monday. Will limit these pops to slight chance. Temperatures look to be cooler with highs in the mid/upper 70s. Surface high pressure to build across the Ohio Valley keeping the region dry and cooler Tuesday. Expect Tuesdays highs in the mid/upper 70s. Return moisture on the back side of surface high pressure will lead to a chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday across the north. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Convection over nrn IN will drop down towards the tafs this evening. Latest CAMs are indicating that it could hold together into KDAY. So added a VCSH to KDAY around 04Z, lasting for a couple of hours. VFR cigs from the convection will also work into the nrn tafs this evening, then the srn tafs later tonight. Models are suggesting that lingering SHRA could linger thru the night around I-70 due to an area of convergence. Left a VCSH in KCMH/KLCK for the later half of the night. Expect the mid deck to begin to erode aft 12Z Wednesday, but a VFR ceiling will probably affect KCMH/KLCK throughout the day Winds will pick back up to the 8-10kt range tomorrow. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday night into Saturday morning. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM...KC/Franks SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Sites

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