Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 171034
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
634 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016
With high pressure over the southeastern states...southerly winds
will continue to provide warm weather for the Ohio Valley through
Tuesday. A cold front will move into the area Tuesday night and
then stall across the region. Low pressure will track along the
front and move through the area on Thursday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Remaining mid clouds will move out of the forecast area this
morning leaving just some cirrus through the rest of the day.
South winds will become gusty particularly north and west of I-71.
Temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. This
will be near the record for Columbus.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Moderate gradient remaining across the region will keep southerly
winds going through the night...becoming gusty again on Tuesday.
Well above normal temperatures will continue. Lows will be near
normal highs. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than Monday. Both
lows and highs will be near record warmth. /See Climate section
below for details./
A cold front will slide southeast into the region Tuesday night
and stall across the forecast area on Wednesday. Could see some
decent coverage of showers along the boundary Tuesday evening. But
then forcing becomes weak until Wednesday afternoon as lift starts
to increase with approach of a short wave and low pressure system.
Temperatures will still be quite mild Tuesday night. Should be
enough cloud cover to limit the diurnal rise on Wednesday. Stayed
close to MOS consensus for both periods.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short wave and associated low pressure will track towards the area
Wednesday night and move through on Thursday. This will result in
rain...especially late Wednesday night through much of Thursday...
with limited diurnal change in temperatures.
Thereafter there is some uncertainty whether the main upper trough
axis will pivot through Thursday night...similar to the 00z
ECMWF...or languish and not move through until Friday night...as
forecast by the 00z GFS. This would affect how long showers may
linger in the forecast area. Without a clear signal...have opted
to hold onto chance PoPs Thursday night into Friday morning in the
High pressure will build in for the weekend...although a minor
upper disturbance could swing through the area. Temperatures will
be below normal.
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --VFR and dry conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds
will pick up during the day today. Wind gusts around 20 to 25
knots will be likely at times today and into tonight.
OUTLOOK...Gusty winds Tuesday with wind gusts of 25 to 35 knots
possible. MVFR Ceilings and visibilities possible Wednesday into
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Cincinnati Columbus Dayton
10/17 record highs 86 in 1950 83 in 1968 86 in 1910
10/18 record warm lows 67 in 1905 65 in 2007 65 in 1947
10/18 record highs 86 in 1938 83 in 1938 86 in 1908