Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 111153 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 653 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An area of low pressure and associated cold front will move across the region this evening into tonight. A second disturbance will work through the area on Tuesday. Another low pressure system will work through the region Wednesday night into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Southerly flow in advance of the next system will allow for warmer temperatures today with highs in the middle 30s to the middle 40s. With dry low levels do not expect precipitation to reach the ground during the day today. The approaching system will allow for an increase in mid and high clouds today. With the lower clouds this morning and then the increase in mid and high clouds, not expecting to see a lot of sun today except for along and south of the Ohio River early in the day. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... An area of low pressure will track along the northern edge of the forecast area this evening into tonight. A trailing cold front will bring some cooler air to the area along with some light precipitation chances. There is some upper support with this feature as well. After this initial feature moves by there will be a few hour period late in the overnight hours early Tuesday morning where model soundings indicate more of a drizzle sounding with no ice in the cloud. Temperatures are around freezing and below freezing in some cases during this time. As such, have a chance for drizzle and freezing drizzle in the forecast for this time across a large portion of the forecast area. In addition, after this initial feature winds will begin to pick up as well. By around daybreak a second upper level disturbance and reinforcing shot of cold air pushes into the area. Winds become quite gusty with wind gusts around 30 to 40 mph. These wind gusts are expected to remain in place through the day on Tuesday. Temperatures will fall some through the day. The combination of the cold temperatures and the winds will allow for wind chill values in the single digits across most of the area. With the second feature sounding profiles will be cold enough as precipitation will change over to all snow. In addition to scattered snow showers and potentially some snow squalls, an enhanced lake band also looks to develop. This band of snow will be where the most accumulating snow will be located. Across far northwestern portions of the forecast area closer to the lake, a thin area of potentially 2 to 4 inches of snow will be possible. Further away from the lake values will generally be a half inch to upwards of 2 inches in the band. Southwestern portions of the forecast area are likely to see the least amount of snow of a half inch or less since the better lake trajectories for longer amounts of time stay further northeast of their location. With the gusty winds during this time expect visbilities to be reduced with snow showers and the band of snow that does develop. Please use caution late Monday night through the day on Tuesday with potential impacts from falling temperatures/wind chill values, freezing drizzle concerns, gusty winds, snowfall, and subsequently reduced visibilities from snow. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Lake effect band will be weakening in the evening before dissipating as winds back. Ridging will briefly cross the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. But the next system will already be approaching the area by Wednesday afternoon. 00Z models still showing some differences in timing/location of low pressure that will pass through the region Wednesday night into Thursday. Have leaned towards the GFS ensemble mean which is a reasonable compromise between the operational GFS and ECMWF. There will be snow ahead of and north of the low track. Given uncertainties, have still limited PoPs to the chance category. Expect this activity to quickly move off Thursday morning. There could be an inch or so accumulation somewhere in the northern part of the forecast area. Behind this system, there will be further reenforcement of cold air, but it will be short-lived. The upper pattern will be deamplifying and robust southwest low level flow will allow temperatures to warm above normal for the weekend. There is timing uncertainty with the passage of a cold front that may occur late in the period. An influx of moisture ahead of this will bring the next chance of showers, mostly rain showers, although there could be some snow if it starts early enough, with the better chance of precipitation in southeast areas. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MVFR cigs will gradually move out of the area today. Mid clouds will move into the region as the day progresses. Expect most precipitation to hold off until later tonight near the end of the TAF period as a cold front approaches and moves through. Cigs will lower and winds will pick up with the front. There will then be a brief period where light freezing drizzle will be possible across portions of the area. Then a secondary system with a reinforcing shot of cold air will move in towards the very end of the TAF period. Winds and wind gusts will increase even more and precipitation will change over to snow. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Tuesday and then again Wednesday night. Gusty winds are expected Tuesday into Tuesday evening. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM... AVIATION...Novak

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