Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 020528
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1228 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016
Flow around a large low pressure system to the northeast will keep
cool and mainly cloudy conditions across the region through
Friday. High pressure will build in Saturday. A weak upper level
disturbance will track across the area Sunday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Clearing has taken place across the southern part of the area
this evening but a burst of CAA has allowed more low clouds to
form just west of the area. These will likely move into the area
over the next couple of hours. Not many changes to ongoing
forecast. New zones already out.
Satellite imagery shows that clearing has worked into the Tri-
State. Elsewhere there have been some thin spots in the
stratocumulus, but conditions have remained cloudy. It appears
that clearing could make a little more progress into the forecast
area this evening. But a return to some weak cold air advection
later tonight should result in lower clouds spreading back across
those areas that cleared. Forecast lows do not stray too far from
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Stratocumulus is expected to continue through Friday and into
Friday evening. Weak low level warm air advection finally
commences Friday night and surface high pressure starts to nose in
from the west. This should be sufficient for low clouds to
The high will build in Saturday and already move off to the east
Saturday night. High clouds will be starting to spread in Saturday
although at this point expect them to be thin through much of the
day. Clouds will thicken towards evening and then lower into a mid
deck Saturday night. But it will remain dry.
Highs will remain below normal with lows near normal through the
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A system will move through the region Sunday into Sunday evening.
There is a northern and southern component to this system and models
continue to differ on how much phasing between these two components
there will be. Trends continue to be towards less phasing therefore
kept close to the previous forecast of a little cooler with the
temperatures and lighter with the precipitation.
A brief lull in the precipitation will occur late Sunday night
through the daytime hours on Monday. The next system will move up
from the south Monday night through Tuesday. Precipitation will
generally be in the form of rain with this system as warmer air in
drawn in from the south.
Another system will move through Wednesday night into Thursday. GFS
is not as pronounced with the precipitation with this system. Went
closer to the ECMWF solution. After the frontal passage on Thursday,
much colder air will work into the region. Some light snow will be
possible then on Thursday.
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --MVFR ceilings will be the main impact for the TAF sites over the
next 12 hours or so. A fairly solid deck of clouds at around
2000-2500 feet has developed, and will continue to hang over the
TAF sites overnight. MVFR ceilings are already occurring at
KDAY/KILN and will move into KCMH/KLCK over the next one or two
hours. KCVG/KLUK are currently on the edge of these clouds, but
MVFR ceilings are likely to begin fairly soon as well. It is
unlikely that the cloud heights will lift much until a few hours
after sunrise, and the TAFS will indicate prevailing VFR
conditions by late morning.
Westerly winds will remain in place at around 8-10 knots
overnight, and will increase slightly on Friday, with some gusts
to around 20 knots possible.
There is a very small chance of some flurries on Friday afternoon
at KDAY/KCMH/KLCK but with no expected impact to aviation
conditions. This will not be included in the forecast.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible Friday night into Saturday
morning. MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible on Sunday,
and again on Monday night into Tuesday.
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