Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 171034 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 634 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 .SYNOPSIS... With high pressure over the southeastern states...southerly winds will continue to provide warm weather for the Ohio Valley through Tuesday. A cold front will move into the area Tuesday night and then stall across the region. Low pressure will track along the front and move through the area on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Remaining mid clouds will move out of the forecast area this morning leaving just some cirrus through the rest of the day. South winds will become gusty particularly north and west of I-71. Temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. This will be near the record for Columbus. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Moderate gradient remaining across the region will keep southerly winds going through the night...becoming gusty again on Tuesday. Well above normal temperatures will continue. Lows will be near normal highs. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than Monday. Both lows and highs will be near record warmth. /See Climate section below for details./ A cold front will slide southeast into the region Tuesday night and stall across the forecast area on Wednesday. Could see some decent coverage of showers along the boundary Tuesday evening. But then forcing becomes weak until Wednesday afternoon as lift starts to increase with approach of a short wave and low pressure system. Temperatures will still be quite mild Tuesday night. Should be enough cloud cover to limit the diurnal rise on Wednesday. Stayed close to MOS consensus for both periods. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Short wave and associated low pressure will track towards the area Wednesday night and move through on Thursday. This will result in rain...especially late Wednesday night through much of Thursday... with limited diurnal change in temperatures. Thereafter there is some uncertainty whether the main upper trough axis will pivot through Thursday night...similar to the 00z ECMWF...or languish and not move through until Friday forecast by the 00z GFS. This would affect how long showers may linger in the forecast area. Without a clear signal...have opted to hold onto chance PoPs Thursday night into Friday morning in the east. High pressure will build in for the weekend...although a minor upper disturbance could swing through the area. Temperatures will be below normal. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR and dry conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds will pick up during the day today. Wind gusts around 20 to 25 knots will be likely at times today and into tonight. OUTLOOK...Gusty winds Tuesday with wind gusts of 25 to 35 knots possible. MVFR Ceilings and visibilities possible Wednesday into Friday.
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&& .CLIMATE... Cincinnati Columbus Dayton 10/17 record highs 86 in 1950 83 in 1968 86 in 1910 10/18 record warm lows 67 in 1905 65 in 2007 65 in 1947 10/18 record highs 86 in 1938 83 in 1938 86 in 1908 1910 && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...Novak CLIMATE... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.