Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 281531 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1131 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A very warm and humid airmass will remain in place today and Monday. This heat and humidity will keep a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. Slightly drier conditions can be expected Tuesday, under the influence of weak surface high pressure. The next chance for thunderstorms will occur Wednesday with the approach of a front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Whilt the mid level shortwave continues to track east and is a potential focus for afternoon thunderstorm development, several of the CAMs are focusing the greater activity further to the south on the back side of the ridge in the southeast...where there is greater instability and available moisture. There`s actually a bit of a PW minimum in the far NW compared to further south. Have slightly hedged a little higher on the thunderstorm chances in the south as a result. Looking at the potential for any thunderstorm activity to reach severe levels...seeing 2 distinct areas of enhanced DCAPE...the first closer to the mid level wave across the north and the second in the southeast. So while it remains to be seen if these specific areas will hold the greater severe potential, will continue to mention scattered to isolated severe storms possible over the entire area. Continuing the heat advisory...with of course the greatest limitation of HI values being reached being cloud and precipitation. Monitoring northward cloud progression in especially our far southeast as a possible dampening on temperatures...though surface dewpoints into the low and even mid 70s still expected. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... With no significant forcing and storms driven by instability and interaction of outflow boundaries, expect convection to diminish early this evening. another muggy night with lows from the upper 60s northwest to the lower 70s southeast. Surface high pressure to build acrs the Great Lakes Monday where mid level westerlies will exist. Meanwhile, e-w elongated mid level ridge will stretch from the Central Plains through the TN Valley and Del Mar Va. Weak boundary across the south may lead to isold convective development across the south Monday afternoon. Have limited pops to chance/slight chance. Highs in the mid/upper 80s northwest to lower 90s southeast. Heat indices look to reach the mid/upr 90s across the far southern counties. Weak surface ridge and a little drier air over the region Tuesday. Have dry forecast Tuesday with only marginal instby in the far south. Highs look to range from the mid 80s nw to near 90 far south. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short wave over Hudson Bay at the beginning of the period will dig southeast and carve out a trough across the northeast United States. This will push a cold front through the region on Wednesday. There is not much moisture with this front and forcing looks weak... although cannot rule out some showers and thunderstorms in northern counties. Warm and humid conditions will persist ahead of the front. But a cooler and drier airmass will spread in for the rest of the week...with temperatures at or slightly below normal. && .AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Conditions are VFR and are forecast to remain so for the most part. The exception is at LUK where BR may reduce visibility late in the forecast. Scattered thunderstorms developing by noon in the warm and unstable airmass may occur in the vicinity of TAF sites. Model uncertainty does not allow accurate location and timing of thunderstorms at this point in time. Later forecasts may be able to pinpoint the effects once the storms develop. Otherwise, sky cover will consist mainly of mid and high clouds left over from earlier regional convection. Winds will be under 10 knots out of the northeast. CVG should see continued VFR and light northeast winds after 12z Monday. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible through Wednesday...mainly in the afternoon and evening. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for OHZ073-077>082- 088. KY...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for KYZ089>100. IN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for INZ073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDR/AR NEAR TERM...JDR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM... AVIATION...Coniglio

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