Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 060131 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 931 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCHING VERY SLOWLY NORTHWEST AND ARE JUST ABOUT TO THE LEWIS COUNTY LINE. EXPECT THUNDER THREAT TO BEGIN TO DROP OFF WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SO WILL JUST HANG ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES SLOWLY EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON MONDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE EAST. AS IT DOES PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH CLOUDS AROUND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY LIMITED TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY THE LOW 80S WITH SOME TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST NEARING THE MIDDLE 80S WHERE THERE WILL BE A LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE. A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN STALLS OUT ACROSS THE REGION. AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AND SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH A QUASI- STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THURSDAY. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS BUT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. 12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS STRENGTHENING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM AND GENERATE MODERATE INSTABILITY. SO EVEN WEAK FORCING...WHICH CANNOT BE RESOLVED WELL THAT FAR OUT IN TIME...COULD PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION. THUS CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALBEIT LOWER THAN MID WEEK...WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT PROGRESSES SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA...EXPECT TO SEE ANY PCPN CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE TAF SITES. AS A RESULT...WILL GENERALLY JUST ALLOW FOR SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO...WHERE SOME LOWER VFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KCMH/KLCK LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOME MVFR BR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM... AVIATION...JGL

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