Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 280608 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 208 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...PROVIDING WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRODUCED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS EARLY EVENING. THE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SSE AND OUT OF CWA WITHIN THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS AND SHOW A MARKED DECREASE WITH THE SETTING SUN. MAINLY MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS AND BUMPED TEMPERATURES DOWN TO REFLECT THE COOLER READINGS FROM THE STORMS...GRADUALLY BUMPING THEM BACK TOWARDS THE EARLIER FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE TO AGAIN BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. BUT MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH AND ASSOC S/WV WILL SPILL OVER INTO THE RIDGE AREA...SO HAVE GONE WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN. SO WHILE THE RIDGING WILL BRING INCREASING TEMPERATURES...NOT QUITE AS WARM AS THE RECENT CONDITIONS. DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY AS THEN INCREASING INSTABILITY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE TROUGH ADVANCES TOWARD AREA. BROUGHT IN SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN MAINLY THE WEST...AND THEN SOME EVIDENCE ON THE NAM/GFS YIELDS LL CONVERGENCE FRI NIGHT LIFTING NE FROM KY INTO SOUTHERN OH. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF ALONG WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS WERE NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM THIS SOLUTION...BUT THEY WERE PERHAPS A LITTLE FASTER WITH SOME OF THE S/WV ENERGY TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE CURRENT SOLUTION OFFERS SOME CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ON SATURDAY...WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE NEAR IF NOT JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING. THIS SHOULD LEAVE OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS FOR THE DAY. WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST...WE SHOULD SEE A VERY WARM/MUGGY DAY. LOOKS LIKE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING S/WV FROM THE MID MS VLY WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO WESTERN LOCATIONS BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A TANDEM OF S/WVS WILL MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYS OUT NE TO SW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER S/WV IS FORECAST TO ROUND NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE BACK SIDE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SYSTEMS AND SOME UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS/LOW LEVEL WEAK FORCING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BROUGHT POPS UP TO 50 PERCENT. CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM SATURDAY NIGHT BUT COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WHILE A MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. PCPN WILL WANE SUNDAY NIGHT AS ENERGY EXITS TO THE EAST. ON MONDAY...WE WILL SEE LOW CHANCE POPS AS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST MOIST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING AN END TO THE PCPN AS WELL && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE WORKING ACRS GREAT LAKES. EXPECT SOME THINNING MID AND HI LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING. IN LIGHT WINDS FLOW AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECT FOG TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP. SOME DRIER AIR IN LIGHT NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FOG FROM FORMING. HAVE A MENTION OF IFR AT FOG PRONE KILN/KLUK LOCATIONS. AFTER FOG BURNS OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE DAY. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST TONIGHT. OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDR NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...JDR LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...SITES

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