Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 151513 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1013 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THEN CONTINUING FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE A COOLER AIRMASS SPREADS INTO THE REGION FOR MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. DUE TO THIS WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. ISSUED AN SPS FOR ANY LINGERING PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE FAR NORTH FOR ANOTHER HOUR. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. KEPT PRECIPITATION TIMING ONSET SIMILAR ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER SLOWED BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... RAIN SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD OUR AREA FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND AN AXIS OF BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE PUSHING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS OUR AREA. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN WILL TAPER OFF BEFORE THE LOW LEVELS COOL OFF ENOUGH FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF MIXED PCPN. WILL KEEP PCPN PRIMARILY RAIN TUESDAY EVENING AND JUST ALLOW FOR A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS THE PCPN COMES TO AN END. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BUT WITH SOME WEAK CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTING...SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE SEASONABLY COOLER READINGS RETURN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS LOW SLOWLY PULLS OUT...IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A STRUNG OUT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC LOW IN THE SRN MS VALLEY AND THEREFORE THE NORTHERLY SPREAD OF ITS PCPN IN THE REGION. 12Z GFS HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER...PULLING THE SFC LOW TRACK UP THRU THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS LOOKS TO HAVE OVER DEVELOPED THE H5 S/W. THE CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS IS A MORE MUTED SFC LOW THAT PUSHES EWD THRU THE GULF COAST STATES AND INTO THE CAROLINAS. LEANED TOWARDS THIS CONSENSUS SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS SOME VERY LIGHT PCPN IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE SRN HALF. THIS COULD FALL AS A MIX OR RAIN/SNOW OR SOME SLEET. SATURDAY IS LOOKING LIKE A RAIN SNOW MIX. THE SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT LEAVING THE REGION UNDER COLD ADVECTION FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. THEY SHOULD RANGE IN THE 30S FOR THURSDAY. SOUTHERN LOCATIONS MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE 40S FRIDAY WHILE THE NORTH REMAINS IN THE 30S. SATURDAY WILL SEE HIGHS SIMILAR TO FRIDAY BEFORE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKS BACK IN ON SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MVFR CONDITIONS CAN GENERALLY BE EXPECTED INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A VERY THIN LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TRAPPED BELOW A STRONG INVERSION AS SEEN ON LOCAL SOUNDING. LATEST PIREPS INDICATE THE CLOUD LAYER IS AROUND 500 AND 1200 FEET THICK VCNTY KCVG AROUND 11Z. LATEST STLT IMAGERY WAS INDICATING A LARGE HOLE IN THE MVFR CLOUD DECK EXTENDING FROM N CNTRL OHIO THROUGH W CNTRL AND SW OHIO JUST N OF THE KCVG TAF. THIS AREA OF HIGHER CLOUDS IS FCST TO SLIDE E AND LOW LVL MOIST RETURNS FROM THE SE BRINGING THE MVFR CIGS BACK. HIGH PRESS OVER THE FCST AREA WILL FINALLY MOVE RAPIDLY OFF TO THE E AS LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NE TO NRN IL. THIS WILL FINALLY DISLODGE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH HAS BEEN TRAPPED OVER THE AREA FOR DAYS. THUS MVFR WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY PROBLEM IS THAT THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING ITS OWN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RAIN MONDAY NIGHT. THUS THE REPRIEVE FROM MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. ALSO WHILE NOT IN THE CURRENT FCST CANNOT RULE OUT IFR OVER SW OH LATE TONIGHT DUE THE RAIN AND CONTINUOUS ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...HAYDU

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