Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 190622 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 222 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... With an upper level ridge over the southeastern states, generally warm conditions are expected through the weekend, with occasional chances for showers and storms. A cold front will move into the region Sunday, providing a greater chance for precipitation, before drier and cooler conditions move into the area on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Scattered thunderstorms may linger overnight especially near a cold front draped across Northwest Ohio. Some of the storms may persist through tonight as the front sags southward, since models show CAPE decreasing but not disappearing in this humid airmass. Lows are forecast to remain well above normal, in the upper 50s north to upper 60s south. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... On Friday morning, a southward-moving cold front will be moving into the ILN CWA, with some level of model disagreement regarding the extent of its progression. This boundary will undercut the overall dome of higher theta-e through the low and mid levels, at least temporarily limiting the chances for precipitation in the northern half of the forecast area. Attention will turn to a weak 700mb shortwave moving into central Kentucky by morning, which should help to take advantage of whatever weak surface-based instability (and perhaps some elevated instability) remains in place early on Friday. Precipitation chances are thus expected to gradually increase from SW to NE over the course of the day, though mainly focusing on the southern two-thirds of the forecast area by afternoon, with the slightly cooler and more stable air to the north. There will certainly be a gradient in temperatures across the ILN CWA, which could help focus the convection, which (at its most in the south) will be in an environment with 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. With generally weak wind shear -- especially in the low levels) -- the severe threat will again be limited to isolated situations in the stronger storm cores. With the axis of the mid-level ridge ending up positioned over the forecast area by late evening into the overnight, chances for precipitation will again decrease, roughly coincident with the usual diurnal cycle as well. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Active weather pattern through the long term forecast period. Mid level shortwave and associated surface wave of low pressure to eject northeast into the Great Lakes Saturday. Surface frontal boundary which was stalled across the south will lift north as a warm front Saturday. This will keep a continued threat of showers and thunderstorms with the best chance west. In the warm sector expect Saturdays highs to range from 80 to 85. Surface wave tracks across the Great Lakes with associated cold front pushing east across the region Sunday. Model solutions generally a little quicker with the frontal passage. This will bring an enhanced chance for thunderstorms. Have continued likely pops with a period of categorical during the afternoon. With clouds and precipitation, temperatures will be a little cooler, with Sundays highs ranging from the mid 70s west to 80 east. A lingering chance of a post frontal rain shower Sunday night and then drying out Monday as surface high pressure providing a temporary dry period early next week. Cooler temperatures expected Monday with highs a little below normal, ranging from the upper 60s northwest to the lower 70s southeast. Jet energy to carve out mid/upr level low over the Mid MS Vly next week. ECMWF is deeper and further east, so pcpn onset a little delayed and lingers longer. GFS solution is less amplified and more progressive. Uncertainty increases with model solutions diverging on timing and amplitude of this system. Have chance pops developing Tuesday afternoon and across the region Wednesday. Have lingered chance pops into early Thursday and then diminish pops as the upper low is expected to shift east. Highs Tuesday will be close to normal with and generally 70 to 75, and then cooler Wednesday from the lower 60s nw to upper 60s se. Cool readings expected to continue next Thursday with highs in the mid and upper 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A cold front is moving south through the region this morning and scattered thunderstorm activity will occur as it passes. A variable wind field will be found today as the front stalls along the Ohio River. After a brief respite in activity this morning, the front will lift northward during the afternoon and storms will fire again as an upper level shortwave works in from the west. Some storms from the later part of the day will linger into the evening but activity will be on a downward trend overnight. Added some pre-dawn fog to areas that saw overnight showers, basically all taf sites except KCVG and KLUK. Outside of any thunderstorm activity, VFR conditions are expected. As noted in the earlier discussion, the scattered nature of the storms and model uncertainty do not allow for precise timing of occurrence at any particular TAF site. Continue to keep conditions VFR for this issuance but threw some MVFR conditions in tempo groups later this evening. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms with MVFR conditions are possible through Sunday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hatzos NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Hatzos SHORT TERM...Hatzos LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Franks

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