Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 270820 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 420 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION BY THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. WITH LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. DESPITE MODELS INDICATING THAT PRECIPTIATION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AM NOT CONFIDENT WITH THIS. BELIEVE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD BE DELAYED WITH THE GIVEN PATTERN AND THEREFORE LIMITED ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION TO A SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND THEREFORE DO NOT HAVE A THUNDER MENTION IN SATURDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS IN FLOW PATTERNS ALOFT BY LATE SUNDAY...AND CONFIDENCE DECREASES APPRECIABLY FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE 26.12Z ECMWF WEAKENS THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE 26.12Z BREAKS DOWN A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. HAVE THEREFORE TAKEN A BLEND OF THESE MODELS...GOING WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN DEVELOP A BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST BY TUESDAY WITH WARMING /ABOVE NORMAL/ TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. APPEARS THAT DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY WORK WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 18Z ALLOWING CLOUDS TO SCATTER AND THEN CLEAR IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK BEFORE THE PERIOD ENDS. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM...KURZ AVIATION...

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