Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 170145 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 945 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. MILDER AIR WILL RETURN AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS RETREATING HIGH. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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VERY FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE FORECAST TONIGHT...WITH A FROST ADVISORY REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR THE AREAS WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM IS ACTIVE. 18Z MODEL RUNS AND HOURLY UPDATES FROM RAP/HRRR MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING TEMPERATURES WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES IN EITHER DIRECTION FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST...WITH THE RAP GENERALLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER...BUT THE HRRR/NAM ARE SHOWING ISOLATED AREAS DROPPING AS LOW AS THE UPPER 20S. THE DRY AIR MASS MIGHT OTHERWISE SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER 30S...BUT WITH SOME WIND REMAINING IN PLACE AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...THE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE NOT PERFECT. SOME SKY GRID ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO FOCUS SOME DETAIL ON THE MAIN BANDS OF CIRRUS. OTHERWISE...GRIDS WERE UPDATED FOR TRENDS AND PUBLISHED. PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION > WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST BECOMING CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS RETREATING SFC HIGH. SKIES WILL START OUT MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. QUESTION REVOLVES AROUND WHETHER WIND/CLOUDS WILL MITIGATE FROST DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. EXPECT THAT SOME FROST WILL DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN PROTECTED AREAS. WILL CONTINUE FROST ADVISORY ACRS THE SOUTH WHERE THE SEASON HAS STARTED. HAVE TAKEN FROST MENTION OUT OF WEST CENTRAL OHIO WHERE WINDS PICK UP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING GRADIENT. LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NE TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. THIS SRLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE TO READINGS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY. EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAINLY EARLY AND THEN DECREASING AS THE OHIO VALLEY GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NE TO THE UPPER 60S SW. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES TO PHASE TO OUR WEST WITH A LONG WAVE TROF AXIS PIVOTING THRU THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS THICKEST ACRS THE WEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME WIND AROUND 5 KTS AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECT THURSDAY NIGHTS LOWS TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...RANGING FROM NEAR 40 NE TO THE LOWER/MID 40S SW. WEAK SFC COLD FRONT TO PIVOT EAST THRU ILN/S FA FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING. MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING MOISTURE/TIMING WITH THIS WEAK FRONT. MAIN SFC LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND FORCING IS VERY WEAK OVER ILN/S FA. WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT POPS TO CHC IN THE WEST FRIDAY AFTN AND THEN ONLY ALLOW SLIGHT CHC IN THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE FRIDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO THE MID 40S SE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION MONDAY. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE THE FRONT...BUT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING EXIST...WITH GFS FASTER AND ECMWF OFFERING A SLOWER SOLUTION. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS AND WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND...WHICH YIELDS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH MODELS SHOWING SCANT INSTABILITY AND RATHER WEAK WIND FIELDS ALONG THE FRONT...DECIDED TO OMIT THUNDER. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT A BIT COOL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DUE TO A MODEST AMOUNT OF WARM ADVECTION...HIGHS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO AVERAGE IN THE NEAR NORMAL MID AND UPPER 60S. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH BY LATE MORNING TOMORROW...WITH WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE. A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO PATCHES OF CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS. A FEW CUMULUS COULD DEVELOP NEAR DAYTON...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ077>082- 088. KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ089>100. IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ073>075- 080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...CONIGLIO AVIATION...HATZOS

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