Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 190143 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 943 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FROST OVERNIGHT IN SOME LOCATIONS. A DRY AND COOL SUNDAY IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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MID-EVENING GOES SATELLITE DATA /11.0-3.9 MICRON DIFFERENCE CHANNEL/ SHOWS BACK EDGE OF STRATOCUMULUS FIELD RUNNING FROM PEORIA IL TO KALAMAZOO MI. PUTTING A TIME TREND ON THIS LEADS TO THIS CLEARING LINE REACHING A MIDDLETOWN TO COLUMBUS LINE AT APPROX 4 AM...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TIME FOR A LATE TEMP DROP AND FROST FORMATION NORTH OF THIS LINE. SOUTH OF THIS LINE /WHICH IS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES OF CURRENT FROST ADVISORY/ IT COULD REALLY GO EITHER WAY. IF LOW CLOUDS DEPART AFTER 5 AM...DOUBT THERE IS ENOUGH TIME FOR FROST FORMATION BUT WILL BE CLOSE AS SUNRISE IS NOT UNTIL CLOSE TO 8 AM. LATEST GUIDANCE DRIVES STRONG DRYING AT 850MB THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...HOWEVER A DEVELOPING VERY STRONG INVERSION AT 900MB LATER IN THE NIGHT MAY REALLY DELAY/MITIGATE MIXING OUT THE TOP OF A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND EFFECTIVELY LINGER CLOUDS. 19.18Z NAM IS VERY MUCH IN THIS CAMP...AS ARE RECENT RAP RUNS. 19.18Z GFS REALLY BLOWS ALL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AWAY...AND OVERLAYING MODEL RH FIELDS ATOP THE SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS THE NAM TOO BULLISH KEEPING RH AND GFS TOO AGGRESSIVE. SO SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE IS PROBABLY CLOSER TO REALITY...WHICH LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN MAKING ANY CHANGES TO TEMPS/CURRENT FROST ADVISORY. THINK BEST CHANCES IN WCNTL OHIO/ECNTL IND /WHICH MAY FLIRT WITH A HARD FREEZE/ AND RAPIDLY LOWERING CHANCES TO THE SOUTH/EAST FROM CVG TO ILN TO SOUTH/EAST OF CMH. WE MAY BE A TIER OF COUNTIES TOO FAR SOUTH WITH ADVISORY BUT CAN/T NITPICK AT THIS POINT WITH CONFIDENCE ON CLEARING WHERE IT IS AT. BUT GIVEN THE BACK EDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE STEADILY...AND SOME HOLES OPENING UP AHEAD OF THE BACK EDGE...FEEL COMFORTABLE KEEPING ADVRY/TEMPS AS THEY ARE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AMPLE SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WITH JUST SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING S/WV FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH THE NW FLOW EARLY BACKING A BIT AND CAA BECOMING MORE NEUTRAL...TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S STILL LOOKS GOOD BUT RAISED SLIGHTLY IN THE SW WHERE SOME LATE DAY WAA MAY BUMP TEMPS INTO THE UPR 50S. MORE MODERATE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE NEXT S/WV TO DROP DOWN FROM CNTRL LOWER CANADA THROUGH WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BEST MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FCST AREA SO HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES HERE. HAVE RAISED PRECIP CHANCES SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN FAIRLY SLOW DEPARTURE WITH THE INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED UPR LEVEL PATTERN LINGERING THE UPR TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW WITH A SHARP RIDGE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION AND A TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MEAN TROF WILL PROVIDE A CONTD CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE EAST. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL... WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF TO OUR EAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AT MID WEEK, WILL END ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION EARLY WEDNESDAY. IN NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND THIS UPPER LOW...SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WED/THUR...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S. SOME MODERATION TO TAKE PLACE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO MIDDLE 60S SOUTH. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVER THE TAF SITES. VSBYS AND CIGS HAVE REMAINED VFR BUT MVFR CIGS BECOMING MORE COMMON WITH THE APPROACH OF COOLER TEMPERATURES/DEEPER SATURATION WITH THE RAIN. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST VFR/OCNL MVFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE STRATUS IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN. RATHER SHARP BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS NOW OVER IL/MI PUSHING SOUTHEAST AROUND 25KTS. THIS SHOULD PUT CLEARING INTO THE DAY/ILN/CMH/LCK TERMINALS SOMETIME IN THE 06 TO 08Z TIMEFRAME...AND A LITTLE LATER AT CVG/LUK. THINK THAT SOME EROSION WITHIN THE CLOUD SHIELD MAY SPEED THIS PROCESS UP SO HAVE MOVED UP THE CLEARING TIME IN THE TAFS FROM PVS ISSUANCE BY AN HOUR OR TWO. THINK MUCH OF SUNDAY IS FEW-SCT CUMULUS GIVING WAY TO BKN CIRRUS VERY LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE. LIGHT NWLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL TURN WLY THEN SWLY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES VERY CLOSE TO THE REGION. CVG/LUK STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF GOING VARIABLE/CALM FOR A FEW HOURS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ026-034- 035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>072-077-080. KY...NONE. IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ050-058- 059-066-073-074. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDR NEAR TERM...BINAU SHORT TERM...JDR LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...BINAU

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