Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 150913 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 413 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak surface low will track through the Great Lakes today, bringing a chance of light snow to northern Ohio. A surface ridge builds into the region tonight into Saturday. Persistent southwesterly flow will bring warmer temperatures into the area for the upcoming weekend, along with a chance of rain on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... H5 s/w will swing across the Great Lakes today. A weak sfc low will develop and move through nrn Lake Huron. Trend of the 00Z models has been to move the pcpn farther north today, closer to the center of the low where the lift is better. Held onto some low chance PoPs in Central Ohio this afternoon, as the lift maximizes. Skies will remain mostly cloudy as low level moisture will continue to pool ahead of cold front dropping into nrn Ohio. Surface pressure gradient will increase this afternoon. Wind gusts of 20-25 kts will be possible during the afternoon. High temperatures will rise to around 30 in the north, and the mid 30s across the south. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... As the H5 s/w pulls away tonight, a sfc ridge will build into the ern Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Clouds will linger tonight, helping keep temperatures up. Lows will range from the mid to upper 20s. Mid level ridge will begin to build in on Saturday. Southerly flow on Saturday will push temperatures a little above normal. Highs on Saturday to range from the lower 40s in the north to the upper 40s in the south. The ridge will hold on Saturday night, bringing mostly clear skies. For Sunday, the consensus of the models is to slow the onset of pcpn. This should allow temperatures to warm enuf that pcpn should fall as all liquid. Although the extended models agree on slowing down the onset, they disagree on coverage for Sunday. The NAM leaves the region dry, while the GFS brings in some scattered rain. The ECMWF and Canadian bring in a bigger swath of QPF. Ran a blend, which lowered PoPs down to high chance. Highs will range from 40 to 45 degrees. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... In split flow regime model solutions differ on phasing and timing of pcpn. Will follow a progressive soln with pcpn ending during the day Monday and then re-introduce a slight chc late Monday night into early Tuesday with mean trof developing across the Great Lakes. Temperatures looks to continue a little above normal with Monday and Tuesdays highs ranging from the the lower/mid 40s north to around 50 south. In northwest flow regime surface high pressure to build into the region at mid week. This high will offer dry weather with the next chance of rain holding off until Thursday afternoon/Thursday night. Temperatures close to normal next Wednesday with highs from the upper 30s north to the mid 40s south. Reading warm above normal Thursday with highs of 45 to 50. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions will be found over the TAF sites in the Ohio Valley for the next 24-30 hours. AS deck 15-20kft will be prevalent for the next few hours and could wash out before daybreak. After daybreak, lower stratus 3-4kft that is already apparent over much of KY and wrn IN will spread into the region as winds pick up from the west and see gusts to 20-25kt from late morning until early afternoon. Stratus will hang tough today as a H8 thermal trough remains entrenched over western OH. Late in the day and moreso in the evening, warm air will be advected in and should help cut the stratus deck as well as limit any lingering gusty winds. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Sunday into Monday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KC/Sites NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Franks is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.