Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 240528 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 128 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY. MOIST RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INTERACT WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ALOFT TO BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 AM THIS MORNING/... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW WITH RIDGE AXIS OVER THE MS VLY BUILDING EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS A LTL EAST BECOMING CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. DRY AIRMASS AT PLACE...WITH ILN/S 00Z SOUNDING SHOWING A MIXING UP TO ABOUT 775 MB. THIS ALLOWED MAX TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. IN WAA PATTERN EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE WITH AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THESE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PIVOT NORTH AND THIN OUT DURG THE MORNING. WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN WAA PATTERN LOWS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT LOWS FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE UPPER 50S. && .SHORT TERM /2 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DRY DAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL REMAIN QUASI- STATIONARY SUNDAY ALLOWING 500 HEIGHTS TO RISE FROM 576 DM TO NEAR 586 DM BY SUNDAY. GOING THROUGH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SUNDAY IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE JUST NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR RAIN YET. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO BE AROUND 1.05" BUT ON BOTH THE GFS AND NAM THERE IS A DRY SLOT STILL AROUND 850 TO 700 MB. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AS 850 TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO RISE FROM 9 DEGREES C TO NEAR 13 DEGREES C. MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE CLOUDS FOR TOMORROW THAN TODAY BUT GIVEN THE WARMER START FOR SUNDAY AM KEEPING FORECAST WARMER SUNDAY THAN TODAY BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. ON MONDAY AN AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LOW OVER THE ROCKIES AND HELPS TO PUSH THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER EAST OPENING THE WAY FOR THE CHANCE RAIN TO RETURN. THE 850/700 DRY AIR FROM SUNDAY ERODES WITH PWATS RISING TO AROUND 1.50" ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS. MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING OVERHEAD MONDAY THAT ARE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. BOTH GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT THUNDER WITH PARCELS BEING ABLE TO MAKE IT UP THROUGH THE FREEZING LAYER. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE EVEN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS RAIN CAN`T BE RULED OUT DUE TO CONTINUING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING WILL ALSO BE MUCH WARMER WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S FORECASTED. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS RIDGE...THE MID OHIO VALLEY WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE EAST COAST RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING A BIT MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF PCPN PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SCT-BKN CIRRUS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE SITES THROUGH 14Z WITH VERY WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW OR CALM CONDITIONS. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND COUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 10KTS THRU THE DAY AND WILL HAVE A GUST COMPONENT IN THE AFTN WITH DRY AIR ALLOWING GOOD MIXING. SCT-BKN MID DECK WILL LIFT ACROSS THE SITES DURING THIS TIME BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY. AFTER 00Z...EXPECT WINDS TO BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN AND DECREASE THOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO INCREASE AFTER 06Z. EXPECT SCT-BKN MID CLOUD AND CIRRUS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAINES NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...HAINES LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...BINAU

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