Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 241132 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 632 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE PLUMMETED THIS MORNING WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE WITH OUTLYING AREAS AS LOW AS 20 BELOW. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY TIGHTEN. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SURFACE WINDS TO PICK UP EVER SO SLIGHTLY ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR FA. EVEN THOUGH THE WINDS ARE LIGHT...IT IS NOT TAKING MUCH TO GET WIND CHILLS IN THE 15 TO 25 BELOW RANGE GIVEN THE VERY COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BY NWS DEFINITION...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REQUIRES AT LEAST 6 MPH OF WIND. WHILE WE MAY NOT BE MEETING THAT NOW IN MOST AREAS...THINK WINDS WILL BUMP UP A TAD MORE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SO HAVE EXPANDED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY A FEW TIERS OF COUNTIES FARTHER SOUTH. AS THE WINDS START TO PICK UP AND THE SUN RISES...WE SHOULD MIX THROUGH THE SHALLOW INVERSION FAIRLY QUICKLY LATER THIS MORNING...WITH HIGHS TODAY PUSHING UP INTO THE 20S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. AS IT DOES...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE IS PRETTY LIMITED WITH THE FRONT AND MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE BETTER FORCING...SO WILL LIMIT POPS TO JUST 20 PERCENT TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 20S. A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPMENT FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OVERSPREADING MUCH OF OUR AREA ON THURSDAY. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AFTER THE H5 ENERGY AND SNOW PUSHES BY...THE MAIN CORE OF THE HIGH DROPS INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A GOOD ARCTIC BLAST WITH LOW BELOW ZERO FOR ALL BUT THE EXTREME SE...WHERE IT WILL STILL BE AROUND ZERO. THE HIGH WILL CROSS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH 15 TO 25 DEGREES...ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AFTER SINGLE DIGIT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL WORK INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY. GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH PUSHING A SYSTEM OUT THE COUNTRYS MID SECTION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO. PTYPE WILL BE TRICKY. RIGHT NOW WENT WITH SNOW...CHANGING TO RAIN ON SUNDAY...BUT IF WARM AIR COMES IN ALOFT QUICKER...COULD SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN BEFORE THE SFC TEMPERATURES GET ABOVE ZERO. CDFNT PUSHES ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN ON BEHIND THE FRONT...CHANGING THE PCPN BACK TO SNOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND BACK ABOVE FREEZING ON MONDAY CHANGING PCPN BACK TO RAIN FOR && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND WINDS WILL PICK UP INTO THE AFTERNOON AND BECOME GUSTY. SOME STRATOCUMULUS MAY DEVELOP IN THE COLD AIR BUT MVFR CIGS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING. MVFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRIES MAY MOVE ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THIS EVENING BUT VSBYS SHOULD NOT BE RESTRICTED. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026- 034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-080. KY...NONE. IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ050- 058-059-066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...PADGETT

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