Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 252324 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 724 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary will drop south through the region tonight into Friday. This will bring temporary relief from the heat on Friday. However, an upper ridge building back over the weekend will keep temperatures above normal. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Some isolated convection has popped in central Ohio in the heat of the day under the H5 ridge. CAM`s have been showing this for the past few runs. Expect some scattered coverage over central Ohio thru the afternoon. It now looks like the majority of the convection associated with an H5 s/w lifting ne through the flow on the nrn edge of the ridge will stay north of the fa. Only brought slight chance pop in into the nrn counties for the evening hours. Several models are showing that some convection that develops out over nrn IL and nrn IN this evening could work into nrn sections after midnight. Wasn`t confident in this happening, so didn`t go crazy with pops. but did bring some slight chance pops into parts of the nw. With weak cdfnt dropping into the fa overnight temperatures in the north will drop into the mid 60s. Along the Ohio River lows will be on the lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... On Friday, high pressure will be trying to build in. Once again a few outlying models try to pop some showers on Friday. Prefer to follow the consensus and go with a dry forecast. Will increase cloud cover however. Highs on Friday will be slightly cooler, ranging from the mid 80s in the north to around 90 along the Ohio River. Friday night into Saturday the H5 ridge will build back to the north into the region. This will allow for the heat and humidity to build back in a little. Went dry for Saturday, but bumped highs back up into the upper 80s to lower 90s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Large area of high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will keep a westerly flatten out as a shortwave crosses north of the Great Lakes region on Sunday night. West-southwest flow at this level will turn westerly through the early part of the week and then the tropical system muddies the forecast significantly. European bombs the low into the Florida panhandle whereas the GFS barely scratches the surface pressure field and WPC forecasts are trending towards a much weaker surface field with the positioning of the European circulation. Regardless of the tropical evolution, a surface boundary should migrate from the I-70 corridor on Monday towards the Ohio River vicinity by mid week. A stronger cold front is expected to push through the region on Wednesday as a large area of surface high pressure builds in Canada. This specific evolution remains to be seen and is likely to see large forecast shifts between now and then. Numerical guidance is not showing much of a day to day change with mid 80s to low 90s for highs and overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. Diurnal heating would maximize the thunderstorm threats in the late day, but the presence of a surface boundary and moist airmass may necessitate keeping some low chance of storms through the overnight hours. && .AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Cu has been dissipating across our area early this evening and this trend should continue over the next couple of hours. The higher res models are suggesting that some remnants of the spotty convection back to our west across eastern Illinois and northwest Indiana may make it into our western area through the early morning hours. However, based on the current overall lack of coverage and the fact that it should be weakening as it approaches our area, will keep the TAFs dry overnight. Forecast soundings and some of the latest guidance are hinting at possibly some stratus development late tonight into Friday morning. The low level moisture is not all that great though so confidence is not terribly high in this. Will generally stick with the ongoing forecast that allows for some sct-bkn stratus development late tonight along with some MVFR vsby restrictions. Conditions should improve through late morning with VFR conditions expected through the remainder of the TAF period. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Monday and Tuesday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hatzos/Sites NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...JGL

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