Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 220226 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 926 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN BUT EXPECT WARM ADVECTION TO START AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT...SHIFTING UP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LOW LEVELS ARE FAIRLY DRY SO IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE WHILE TO SATURATE THE AIR COLUMN. HOWEVER...THINK WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND THEN TRANSITION MORE UP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AN ISSUE AS THEY SHOULD SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION...BUT WILL LIKELY STILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING AT PCPN ONSET. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO BE OFFSET A BIT BY SOME EVAPORATIONAL COOLING EARLY ON WITH THE PCPN. AS A RESULT...A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF OUR FA. SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE COVERAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT BUT ISSUE AN SPS AND CONTINUE TO MENTION A FREEZING RAIN THREAT IN THE HWO. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH ANY LINGERING FREEZING RAIN TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL THEN PIVOT UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 70 KNOT 850 JET ROTATING UP INTO OUR AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE 12Z GFS IS TRYING TO PULL SOME VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITIES UP TO ABOUT OUR SOUTHERN BORDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. SUPPOSE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS OUR SOUTH GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING. WILL THEN HANG ON TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IN THE GOOD WAA PATTERN...HIGHS BY SUNDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 50S. GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO STEADY OR EVEN RISING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LATEST ECMWF APPEARS TOO SLOW WITH THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. HAVE GONE WITH THE NAM/GFS/WPC SOLUTION WHICH PUSHES THE COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH DECENT FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE...A BAND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. GIVEN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS 40 TO 50 KNOTS BETWEEN 925 MB AND 850 MB...SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. BY AFTERNOON...MODELS SUGGEST WE GET INTO A DRY SLOT WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO DEEPENS. MODELS INDICATE THAT WE SHOULD MIX FAIRLY WELL IN THE DRY SLOT. WITH CAA AND MIXING...WINDS COULD GUST IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE FROM MID MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON. FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION. BEST MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT INFLUENCE SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND HAVE KEPT IT DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CAA INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION. FOR THE UPCOMING TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING...ECMWF AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WHILE THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. IN EITHER CASE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE AS TEMPERATURES BECOME COLDER ONCE AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ON FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE MOVING EAST TONIGHT. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO NORTHERN TAF SITES DAY ILN CMH AND LCK AS WARM MOIST AIR ALOFT IS LIFTED OVER COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. TIME OF OCCURRENCE FOR -FZRA APPEARS TO BE 09Z TO 14Z. ANY LEFT OVER PRECIP WILL TURN TO RAIN AFTER 14Z AS INCREASING SOUTH WINDS BRING ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES. MODELS INDICATE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN SPITE OF THE PRECIP SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITY SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...CONIGLIO

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