Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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088 FXUS61 KILN 211500 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1100 AM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front will remain stretched across the region today and then lift north tonight. Tropical moisture will spread into the area from the south on Thursday with a cold front dropping in from the northwest Friday afternoon and night. Below normal temperatures will ensue over the weekend into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Currently, only a weak shower in Darke county this morning. A weak boundary was also located across our northern zones and will slowly sag south this afternoon before stalling. As this happens forecast soundings will slowly begin to destabilize. Both GFS and NAM forecast soundings aren`t that impressive though with lapse rates very weak and dry air located at various levels of the soundings. Still though, PWATs are forecasted to rise to around 1.3". Overall am thinking that coverage will be scattered at best with highest chances towards the east. Have nudged up PoPs across the area but kept chance category PoPs at best. Prev Discussion-> Few echoes in Indiana ahead of a weak disturbance may make it into western counties early this morning before dissipating. An east-west front extending along the far northern tier of the forecast area early this morning is expected to drop a bit further south to near the I-70 corridor. While forcing is rather weak with little to no upper support, there is a small potential for some showers and thunderstorms to develop near the boundary, primarily in central Ohio. Temperatures will be warmer than yesterday. Forecast does not stray too far from guidance numbers which are in good agreement.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... The weak east-west boundary will lift north of the area this evening. Expect clouds near this feature to move across northern sections. Meanwhile there will be clouds streaming in from the south in the latter part of the night. Warm lows will be the result, although the NAM MOS looks a bit too warm. Strong moisture transport out ahead of the tropical system in the Gulf will bring precipitable water up to or above 2 inches during the day. There will be an increase in cloud cover, particularly in southern counties and showers and thunderstorms may start to spread in from the south during the afternoon. This will result in warmer temperatures in the northern counties with the potential for up to a 10 degree spread from south to north across the forecast area. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... 00Z Friday begins with the increasing potential for heavy rain along the far southern forecast area and then south into the southern Ohio and Tennessee Valley regions. GFS/ECMWF and GFS Ensemble mean show similar solutions with the remnants of Cindy riding along the western and then northern periphery of a large ridge off the SE Coast. The differences in model solutions are just how far north will be the reach of the heavy rain, with the ECMWF solution placing the reach of tropical rainfall a little further north into far SE Indiana and into southern Ohio, whereas the GFS and GFS Ensemble slightly south. Lows on Friday morning will be upper 60s to near 70 with the warm push. Both solutions indicate an efficient stream of tropical moisture from especially 06z Friday through about 12z Saturday. PW values as far north as ILN reach to 2 inches by 00z Friday, which is above the 90th percentile for mid/late June. The northerly push of Cindy`s remains into the southern forecast area coincides with the progression of an elongated short wave to push through the southern Great Lakes and assist in pushing the tropical remnants along the back edge of the retreating Atlantic ridge. Expectation of a fairly tight gradient from heavy rain to light rain within the southern forecast area, but confidence on exact placement of heavy rain is low at this time. Plenty of cloud cover will keep below daytime highs on Friday near 80, then as the rain begins to pull away from the area Friday night, temperatures will moderate into the low to mid 60s. Saturday daytime highs in the low 80s. Clearing through the day on Saturday as the system retreats, with just low chances of precipitation on Sunday as a broad upper level trough and associated weak short wave pushes through the lower Great Lakes and skirts the northern forecast area. Sunday highs will remain below normal with upper 70s to lower 80s. Below normal temperatures for the remainder of the period as upper flow remains from the NW before a large surface high pressure from the lower MS valley builds into the region. With some moisture availability on especially the northern and back side of the progressing surface high, low chances of mainly diurnal thunderstorms for Tuesday. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the period. Mid clouds will decrease early in the period. Scattered to broken cumulus will then prevail through the day and into the evening. Could be a shower or thunderstorm in the Columbus area this afternoon, but the probability is too low to include in the terminals at this point. Winds will become westerly up to 10 kt. Winds will back to the south and become light again. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday afternoon into Saturday morning. MVFR ceilings possible Thursday night into Friday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...Haines SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...JDR AVIATION...

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