Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 240818 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 418 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BRING A WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND THEN STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER TO THE SOUTH. LOTS OF DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE SO ONLY POTENTIAL CLOUDS WILL BE SOME THIN CIRRUS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER...ALTHOUGH FOLLOWED GUIDANCE TREND AND BUMPED DOWN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL OPEN UP AND WEAKEN AS IT GETS PULLED INTO CONFLUENT FLOW AROUND LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTERED OVER ATLANTIC CANADA. SURFACE REFLECTION OF SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A WEAK LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING EAST INTO TUESDAY. AS IT DOES...A TRAILING EAST-WEST COLD FRONT WILL GET DRAGGED SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY BRING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET SPREADS INTO THE AREA HELPING TO INDUCE SOME LIFT. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. BUT THEN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING CLOSER TO THE FRONT. MODELS ARE SHOWING DISCREPANCIES IN THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THAT WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MAY NOT COMPLETELY END AS THE FRONT SAGS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE LOWS LOOKED REASONABLE FOR TONIGHT AND ALSO TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE GENERALLY OPTED TO GO A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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STALLED FRONT WILL STAY NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN START TO LIFT BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH SOME THUNDER. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. SO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY. 00Z GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW HAVE FAVORED THE SLOWER GFS WHICH SUGGESTS THAT ANY CHANCE OF RAIN WOULD BE LIMITED TO LATE IN THE DAY IN WESTERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY. A FEW CU WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KCVG...KLUK...AND KDAY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN VFR CLOUDS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AT THE LONGER KCVG TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT AT KLUK. ADDED TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT KLUK LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...NOVAK

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