Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 161811 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 211 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE PUSHING TOWARD THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY WILL KEEP A LOW LEVEL EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER OUR AREA TODAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A MODIFYING AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS ALL ZONES. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST FORMATION IN MOST LOCATIONS. AS A RESULT...AM ISSUING A FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES THAT RESIDE IN THE FROST FREEZE PROGRAM AT THIS TIME. RETURN FLOW WILL REBOUND TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ON THURSDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. MODELS VARY A BIT ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY. THE ONLY MODELS THAT KEEP PRECIPITATION IN TACT ACROSS OUR AREA ARE THE SREF AND GFS. CMC/ECMWF/NAM ARE DRIER. AM FORECASTING 40 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AND LOW END POPS ELSEWHERE FOR FRIDAY AS THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH A DRIER SOLUTION POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...NUDGED FORECAST HIGHS UP...WITH MAXIMUMS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE WHITEWATER VALLEY...TO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY. ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES FILTERING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE GFS. AT THIS POINT WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND HOWEVER LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL VARIABILITY. THERE IS AGAIN SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER MENTIONED. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL MOVE TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ON THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO CANADA AS A COLD FRONT SAGS EAST TOWARD OUR REGION. MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STILL FORECAST WITH THE WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ077>082- 088. KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ089>100. IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ073>075- 080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/LATTO NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/LATTO SHORT TERM...LATTO LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...HICKMAN

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