Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 162032 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 332 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A warm front will develop and lift across the region tonight into Friday morning. This will be the start of an extended period of much above normal temperatures.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Surface ridge axis extending across the area will move east this evening. A warm front in the mid Mississippi Valley will develop further east as it lifts north overnight. This boundary will move through all but the far northern counties before daybreak Friday. Band of mid clouds across the western counties will translate southeast through the evening. But additional higher clouds will spread across the region overnight. MOS blend looked reasonable for lows.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Warm front will push north of the entire forecast area Friday morning. Southerly low level flow will ensue with an upper ridge building into the region. Mid to high clouds will move off as heights rise. Temperatures will warm substantially on Friday with guidance seeming to have a good handle on this. Stayed on the cooler side of guidance for lows Friday night.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Period begins with closed H5 low drifting out of the Srn Plains into the Mid MS Valley. 12Z model runs are keeping the pcpn a little farther south on Saturday, closer to the upper lower. So lowered PoPs in the south to slight chance and kept the north dry. With the lowered PoPs upped highs to around 60 region-wide. Lower pcpn chances will linger around the extreme south for the first half of Saturday night, until the upper low fills and slips e. On Sunday, H5 ridge starts to build up into the region, coinciding with a sfc high pressure ridge working in. Highs on Sunday will warm to the lower to mid 60s. Although these will be about 20 degrees above normal, records should be safe as they are in the 70s. Dry weather will continue into Monday as the center of the H5 ridge reaches the area. Monday will be warmer for the southern sections as temperatures reach the upper 60s. This too should be below the daily record, as the record high at CVG on Monday is 72. Across the extreme northern counties highs will linger in the lower 60s. Monday night the H5 ridge axis slips into the Appalachians. For Tuesday, the models agree that a cold front will be pushing out of the upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes, but there is a little spread on the strength and timing. They do agree that the pcpn with the front will be slower to reach the fa, so dried out Tuesday. Moisture gets pulled north into the region Tuesday night along the front. Lift is weak, so kept PoPs only in the chance category. Pcpn chances linger on Wednesday, before the GFS/CMC push the moisture ewd. Despite cloud cover and pcpn, temperature will remain well above normal, ranging from 60 to 65. The 12Z ECMWF is lingering pcpn across the Ohio Valley on Thursday, which is a departure from it`s 12Z run. Leaned towards the drier solution as that appears to be the consensus.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR will prevail through the period. A mid deck will prevail through much of the period. Band of 6-9kft ceilings across western terminals will translate southeast, but additional clouds in 10-15kft range will spread in from the northwest. These will decrease towards 12Z. West winds at the beginning of the period will weaken and back to the south around 00Z. South southwest winds will increase to 10-15 kt late in the period. OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Sites AVIATION...

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