Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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796 FXUS61 KILN 241749 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 149 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Expect mild weather today in a breezy southerly flow ahead of low pressure centered to the west. The low will track east to the Great Lakes by Sunday, bringing increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms during the weekend. Weak high pressure and drier air will build in briefly early Monday, before another area of low pressure arrives for Monday night and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Mid clouds that were across the area have finally thinned. Cumulus is develop to the southwest and will spread into the region through the rest of the afternoon. Given recent temperature trends, have raise highs several degrees.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Low pressure system will gradually move east to Missouri by Saturday, while a warm front remains draped across the Great Lakes, leaving the ILN area in the warm sector. With models trending a bit slower with this system, expect dry weather to persist tonight. For Saturday, moisture and lift ahead of the low will produce increasing chances for showers and afternoon thunderstorms. Western locations will see the best chance of showers being closer to the bulk of moisture and forcing. Chance for severe thunderstorms will be limited by marginal instability featuring CAPE values reaching perhaps 500 J/KG. Continued warm advection on a southerly flow will allow high temperatures around 70. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... An active weather pattern this weekend into next week. Initial upper level low to lift northeast and open up as it tracks from the mid MS Valley across the Great Lakes Sunday/Sunday night. Axis of moisture and instability will result in a period of showers and thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday ahead of surface cold front. Highs on Sunday around 10 degrees above normal, ranging from the lower 60s north to the upper 60s south. Temporary dry period to work in early Monday as ridging builds in ahead of next upper level trof. Next shortwave and associated surface wave to track quickly northeast through the Ohio Valley. In the warm moist environment temperatures to rise to highs from the mid 60s north to the lower 70s south. Break in precipitation will be short lived with showers and thunderstorms re-developing Monday afternoon into Monday night. Pcpn to end early Tuesday as surface high builds into the Great Lakes. Temperatures will remain above normal with highs ranging from the lower 60s north to the upper 60s south. Surface high to slide east with upper level ridging building in Wednesday. This will provide dry weather and continued mild temperatures. Highs on Wednesday to range from the upper 50s northwest to the lower 60s southeast. Active weather pattern to continue with next upper level low getting kicked northeast from the southern plains into the mid MS Vly by Friday morning. Will bring chance pops Thursday and then likely pops Friday with a chance of thunder. Highs on Thursday and and Friday, generally 60 to 65. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Scattered to broken cumulus will occur through the early part of the TAF period. Expect clouds to gradually diminish after 00Z. High clouds will overspread the area during the latter part of the period with some diurnal cumulus developing on Saturday. Gusty south winds at the start of the period will decrease with the loss of heating. Winds will back slightly overnight but maintain 5 to 10 kt. Southerly winds around 10 kt will prevail on Saturday. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities as well as thunderstorms are possible Saturday night into Sunday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible again late Monday into Tuesday morning.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...

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