Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 310557 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 157 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO INTO THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY LIMITED TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THIS AREA AND THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THIS MENTION IN THE HWO ACROSS THIS AREA. IN ADDITION HAVE A HEAVY RAIN MENTION ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS SE CENTRAL INDIANA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT HOWEVER THEY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY DO. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE VALUES OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA ON SUNDAY TRAVELING FROM AROUND JUST NORTH OF DAYTON TO JUST NORTH OF COLUMBUS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND JUST OF THIS AREA. AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EXPECT A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S WHILE SE PORTIONS OF THE FA ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 80S. COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE FA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO DROP ACROSS THE REGION. COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA TO UPPER 50S ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... PERIOD WILL START WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIAL CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS. SOME SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH THE REGION IN A BIT OF A COL BETWEEN WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH AND A CUT OFF LOW IN THE DEEP SOUTH. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/ INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND PERHAPS EVEN DRIFT BACK NORTH A BIT. A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS EVOLUTION. BUT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS...MOSTLY DIURNAL...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM DURING THIS PERIOD. AS SOUTHERN LOW OPENS UP THE WESTERLIES WILL SAG SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. IT APPEARS THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL START BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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WARM MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE AND A LOW JET IS NOSING IN AHEAD OF A LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AT 05Z. JET IS HELPING TO KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN THE AREA. THEREFORE...WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPO SHRA OVER MOST TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. THEREAFTER...A LOT OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINTS TO LOWERING CIGS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOW FAR THEY CAN DROP. AS LONG AS FRONT REMAINS NORTHWEST...THINK THAT IFR IS NOT LIKELY. THEREFORE HAVE ALLOWED FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AROUND/JUST AFTER SUNRISE. MAY HAVE A FEW MORE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. THEN...AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON A WIND SHIFT /TO NW/ WILL OCCUR AND THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING PER SREFS/MAV/MET. OUTLOOK...IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE THEN LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM... AVIATION...BPP

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