Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 141750 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 150 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cloudy skies and cool temperatures will persist today in the wake of Irma`s remnants. High pressure will build across the region on Friday, extending across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley for much of the weekend. The high will bring warmer temperatures back to the area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Did not make any significant adjustments to the near term forecast as midlevel low continues to push east of the Ohio Valley. In its wake, extensive low cloud cover will continue through today with just a few breaks possible during the afternoon hours. Some patchy light drizzle continues across parts of the FA this morning, although very little in the way of measurable pcpn is expected. For this afternoon, shifted slight chance/chance of showers a bit further east this afternoon per latest hi resolution solutions. Nevertheless, still think that most areas will see dry conditions this afternoon despite spotty shower coverage, which will diminish towards sunset. With continued cloud cover, another unseasonably cool day is in store, with highs generally in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees in the west. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Mid level closed low across the middle Ohio Valley this morning will slowly rotate east into central Pennsylvania by this evening. Although the mid level circulation will depart, models show its lower level circulations persisting as they move much slower. This will keep moisture across the region, resulting in mainly cloudy skies for the day. Scattered showers, perhaps some patchy drizzle, will diminish by sunrise, such that only low chance PoPs will continue into the day. Highs will be tempered by clouds, ranging from the upper 60s to the lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Surface high pressure will build some just to our east tonight as subsidence increases in the wake of the mid level low. We should see skies at least become partly cloudy west. It is difficult at this time to know how much cloud cover will persist elsewhere as models show moisture lingering and not really pushing out of the region. So have gone either partly to mostly cloudy. Lows will range from the mid to upper 50s. On Friday, mid level ridging will occur as surface ridging remains just off to our east. Under partly cloudy skies, temperatures will rebound into the mid and upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... By Friday evening, a pattern change will be well underway across the Ohio Valley. The last remnants of Hurricane Irma will be essentially featureless and absorbed into the flow across southern New England, as heights begin to steadily rise over the rest of the eastern third of the CONUS. A broad area of surface high pressure will also be setting up over the mid-Atlantic states, which should start to allow for an increase in southerly flow over the Ohio Valley. Though the high may not be completely clean (and thus some clouds should develop at times through the weekend) temperatures should easily rise into the 80s on both Saturday and Sunday, with temperatures finally getting near and then above normal for the first time in a while. On Sunday, a well-defined shortwave will be moving northeast into far northwestern Ontario. Associated with this wave will be a weak surface low in the same vicinity, with a very stretched-out cold front extending roughly southward across the western Great Lakes. This front will move into the southern Great Lakes region on Monday, eventually making somewhat of an attempt to get into the Ohio Valley as well, bringing at least some chance of precipitation to the area. However, the front is far from impressive -- it lacks in available moisture, it is pivoting to more of a SW-to-NE orientation, and its parent cyclone will be hundreds of miles to the north. If there has been a trend with the model runs in the past day, it has been for even less confidence that the front actually clears through the area. Thus, PoPs will be kept no higher than before -- and future forecasts may need to cut them back, especially going into Monday evening. The forecast for Tuesday and beyond is somewhat uncertain, but there appears likely to be some degree of ridging building in after the front stalls or washes out near the area. These details may also be complicated by the eventual track of Hurricane Jose, which -- while most likely to remain near-shore or offshore -- may affect the evolution of the pattern over the eastern third of the CONUS. Regardless, all signs point to continued warm temperatures going into the middle of the week for the Ohio Valley. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Some MVFR /and even some brief IFR/ CIGs remain in the local area in the wake of the well-defined upper low. Spotty -SHRA and drizzle has redeveloped early this afternoon with diurnal heating (especially where there have been a few breaks in the stratus). Cannot completely rule out a very brief MVFR VSBY in heaviest shower activity, but coverage of such a condition (or lack thereof) precluded inclusion in the TAF at this time. Additionally, a fairly healthy Cu field has developed where the low stratus has/had started to scour, so do not anticipate much in the way of overall clearing through the first part of the TAF period. SHRA and drizzle activity will taper off towards 00z with the loss of daytime heating. Past 00z, the main item of interest becomes the extent/coverage of any lingering MVFR/VFR Cu/stratocu coverage in the area and whether there may be enuf radiational cooling to induce BR/FG development. Model consensus would indicate that reduced VSBYs will develop area-wide towards sunrise Friday, and given BR/FG development earlier today further upstream across IL, did add MVFR and even IFR VSBYs at all terminals by late tonight. With relatively saturated air lingering in the low levels, most widespread BR/FG development will be favored for E/SE parts of the area. This may eventually result in /or transition to/ IFR CIGs around 12z. Did not have confidence yet to include CIGs below 1kft, but this may be warranted should observations trend this way. Any lingering IFR/MVFR CIGs should lift to VFR towards very end of TAF period with a slow clearing trend anticipated Friday afternoon. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Sunday night into Monday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...KC SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...KC

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