Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 251749 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1249 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/... PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO IT THIS LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW OBSERVATIONS EARLY HAVE STARTED AS SNOW...BUT IN SOME SITES SUCH AS THE DAYTON AIRPORT...HAVE CHANGED BACK TO RAIN. AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS APPEARS TO BE RUNNING FROM NORTH OF DAYTON AND EXTEND ESE TOWARDS SOUTHWEST FRANKLIN COUNTY. THIS WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND BECOME MORE W-E ORIENTED THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR EXPECT SNOW TO MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES AND ACTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN FOR A GOOD BIT OF THE REGION THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW THAT IS NORTH OF THIS CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY NOT CHANGE MUCH BUT COULD BRIEFLY MIX WITH SLEET OR RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE CORRIDOR I AM HESITANT TO SAY THAT IT WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE WITH SURFACE TEMPS HOVERING JUST ABOVE FREEZING. WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM I STILL SEE THE WARMER AIR BEING PULLED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD TO TICKLE THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND CONTINUE TO MIX RAIN IN THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... SOME SNOW MAY STILL BE LINGERING IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BUT THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF WITH LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. AFTER THIS...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH CLEARING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE SPREADING IN ABOUT THE TIME LOW CLOUDS START TO CLEAR OUT. A SHEARED SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES. LEANED TOWARDS COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MOS LOOKED REASONABLE FOR MONDAY NIGHT LOWS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY BRINGING A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE DEPENDENT ON HOW WARM IT GETS OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. READINGS WILL DROP BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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WARM SECTOR PULLING IN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING WNW FROM THE SOUTH SIDE OF COLUMBUS WILL KEEP MAINLY RAIN OVER DAYTON AND SURROUNDING SITES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SNOW AND A SNOW/RAIN MIX MAY BE MORE PREVALENT AT KCMH/KLCK BUT EXPECT RAIN TO MIX IN AS THE FRONTOGENETIC AREA BECOMES MORE W-E ORIENTED AND LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN METRO AREA. ITS THE LATE DAY 4-6 PM TIME THAT WILL SEE A QUICK CHANGE TO A DOMINANT SNOW TYPE ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AT KDAY AND KCMH/LCK. SRN TAF SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN PLAIN RAIN UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND THEN CHANGE TO SNOW FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL RISE TO VFR FOR A PERIOD IN THE SOUTH BUT BY EVENING MVFR WILL BE AS GOOD AS IT GETS. IFR CIGS AND LIFR VSBYS IN THE SNOW WILL HAMPER MOST AIR TRAVEL IN THE REGION TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AT 13-15KT WITH GUSTS 20-25KT OVERNIGHT AND CALM DOWN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY. LOW CIGS MAY SCOUR OUT AT KCVG/LUK AT THE TAIL END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD BUT WILL LIKELY HOLD TOUGH ELSEWHERE. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034- 035. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ042>046- 051>056. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ060>065-072. KY...NONE. IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ050. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...FRANKS

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