Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 200151 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 951 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE...AND THEN PRECIPITATION SPREADS OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT KEEPING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... EVENING FORECAST UPDATES HAVE CENTERED ON MASSAGING OF THE SKY GRIDS TO CAPTURE SCT-BKN CIRRUS /MORE OPAQUE FAR NRN FORECAST AREA/ AND RAPIDLY FALLING EVENING TEMPS IN AREAS SOUTH OF THIS THICKER CIRRUS. KUYF /LONDON OHIO/ IS A RATHER EXTREME EXAMPLE UNDERNEATH THE CENTER OF THIN/TRANSLUCENT CIRRUS AND PLUMMETED FROM 52F TO 36F IN 4 HOURS EARLY THIS EVENING...AND SEVERAL SITES IN CNTL OHIO FOLLOWING SUIT. THIS AREA RATHER CALM WITH WEAK SWLY FLOW STILL A FEW HOURS AWAY FROM DEVELOPING. THUS...TOOK THE 01Z ANALYSIS TEMP GRID...AND ALLOWED SEVERAL MORE DEGREES OF DROP BEFORE STEADYING OUT AND ALLOWING A BETTER RISE IN THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH ARRIVAL OF THICKER MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SEEN GATHERING OVER ILL/IN AT THIS HOUR. 20.00Z RAOB FROM KILN SAMPLED THE VERY DRY TROPOSPHERE THAT IS SUPPORTING THE TEMP DROP...WITH PWAT A MEASLY 0.21" AMIDST A WEAK WAA FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. MINOR DISTURBANCE OVER ILLINOIS AHEAD OF MORE SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST AND STRENGTHEN SOME AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH OVERALL DEEPENING OF TROUGH IN EASTERN US. RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED GROWTH/EXPANSION OF 8-9KFT ALTOSTRATUS DECK AND EVENTUAL GENERATION OF SOME -SHRA LATER TONIGHT OVER SRN IND/NRN KY. VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME AND THINK RADAR WILL HAVE MORE BARK THAN BITE /MORE REFLECTIVITY SHOWN THAN WHAT WILL BE HITTING THE GROUND/ SO KEEPING SERN INDIANA/SWRN OH/NRN KY DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASE IN A SPRINKLE/VERY LIGHT SHOWER THREAT ON MONDAY MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WELL OFF TO THE MID ATLANTIC BY MON MORNING AND THE TROUGH ON OUR DOORSTEP BY 12Z. AM SIDING WITH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS WHICH DONT BRING IN PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER 12Z WITH SOME LACK OF LL MOISTURE. BETTER ISENT LIFT DOESNT GET INTO FCST AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z...WITH THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE NRN FCST AREA INTO THE DAY. FOR MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPR TROUGH CUTTING OFF AND SLOWING DOWN OVER THE EASTERN GRT LAKES. THIS WILL LINGER PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH AMPLE CLOUDS. AS THE PRECIPITATION TRIES TO PULL EAST MONDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPR LOW SO AM KEEPING CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. A RETURN OF SOME GOOD FETCH OFF WARM LAKE MI...SO HAVE ALSO ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED/ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FAR WESTERN FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE FLOW BECOMES MORE DUE NORTHERLY AND THE CHANCES DIMINISH AREA WIDE. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH WITH COMPLETELY PULLING OUT PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST...AS WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE PROGRESSION (OR LACK THEREOF) OF THE UPR LOW. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW WITH A SHARP RIDGE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION AND A MEAN TROF OVER THE EAST COAST TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF TO OUR EAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY. FLOW AROUND THIS LOW WILL RESULT IN NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE REGION. EXPECT MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO BE EAST OF ILN/S FA WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURG THE DAY. EXPECT WED/S HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 50S SOUTH. UPPER LOW TO TRANSLATE INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SFC BUILDING INTO THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP ILN/S FA DRY WITH EMBEDDED S/W TO PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME MODERATION THROUGH THE WEEK. LOWS IN THE MID/UPR 30S ON WED AND THURS NIGHTS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FROST FORMATION. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION IN THE GRIDS AND HWO PRODUCT. EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH SOME MODERATION ON FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 60 NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH. NORTHERN PORTION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO FLATTEN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OHIO VALLEY NEXT WEEKEND AND ACTIVE WEATHER TO STAY WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL NEXT SATURDAY/SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... GOING TAFS WERE WELL TRENDED. CIRRUS CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT LEAST THROUGH 12Z TO 15Z. TOWARD SUNRISE SOME HIGH-BASED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP IN A SCATTERED FASHION OVER SERN IND/NRN KY/SRN OH AND SPREAD QUICKLY EAST. THESE SHOULD MOSTLY FALL OUT OF A 8-10KFT ALTOSTRATUS DECK...SO EXPECT NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS OR CIG ISSUES. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SW...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20KTS LIKELY AT ALL AIRFIELDS. BY ABOUT 16Z...MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR AND NORTH OF KDAY AND SPREAD QUICKLY TOWARD KCMH/KLCK...WHERE PREVAILING VFR -SHRA HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE TAFS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE MAY ALSO AFFECT ILN/CVG/DAY/LUK BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH RIGHT NOW TO GO BEYOND VFR CIGS/VSBY. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS IN THE AT KCMH/KLCK...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR NOW. ALSO OUTSIDE THREAT FOR MVFR CIGS IN THE 30 HOUR PORTION OF CVG TAF AS FURTHER MOISTENING OCCURS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. .OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDR NEAR TERM...BINAU SHORT TERM...JDR LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...BINAU

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