Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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350 FXUS61 KILN 010915 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 415 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low pressure will be entrenched north of the Great Lakes region, bringing westerly flow to the Ohio Valley. This flow will bring cool and cloudy conditions through Friday. High pressure will build in early in the weekend. An upper level disturbance may bring a chance for rain or snow on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Cold advection over the region will combine with an upper level shortwave passing through the great lakes region to permit some sprinkles over the northern sections of the CWA this morning and early afternoon. Given the low LCLs in the cold air, flurries would likely be the p-type through shortly after daybreak. Brisk westerly winds will combine with temperatures in the lower 40s to make it feel about 10 degrees colder than the actual air temperature through the day today. Axis of the upper level shortwave and associated vort maxima will be through the region by late afternoon, effectively turning off any of the sprinkles or flurries falling out of the low cloud deck. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Large closed low over the Great Lakes at the beginning of the period will translate northeast leaving a west to northwest upper flow across the region. Cyclonic low level flow will persist through Friday with moisture being trapped under an inversion, which should result in a primarily overcast period. High temperatures will be slightly below normal with low temperatures around seasonal normals. As high pressure starts to build in Friday night, clouds will finally diminish which will allow temperatures to fall into the 20s. The upper level disturbance passing through the Great Lakes on Saturday night will be battling the drier air at the surface already in place from the high pressure system. Models are continuing to push back the occurrence of precipitation with this system, but there still remains an elevated chance for some rain and snow on Sunday morning to change over to rain relatively quickly. Have trended back on the rain chances later in the day on Sunday given the split from a northern upper level shortwave that continues to weaken with successive model runs, and the southern heavy rain that will remain well south of the Ohio Valley. The Gulf moisture will not have a transportation mechanism to reach the region on Sunday given the still relatively entrenched surface high. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Precipitation will move out of the region Sunday night. A brief lull in the precipitation will occur Monday before a system begins to move in Monday night. There is a decent warm push of air with this system therefore have precipitation as all rain. Expect rain across the area for Tuesday before exiting Tuesday night. Models are variable for a system Wednesday into Wednesday night and with this variance decided to keep precipitation chances lower until there is greater continuity and forecast confidence. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Cold advection SC is building into the region, with cigs coming in MVFR across the nrn tafs and VFR in the south. With cyclonic flow across the region the clouds should hold together across the northern tafs, however expect them to lift to VFR with the daytime heating. Models are on the edge with their cloud forecast for CVG/LUK however. Some guidance is showing the clouds going scattered this afternoon. Prefer the more pessimistic solution which keeps a VFR ceiling through the afternoon. With the moisture caught under an inversion, clouds should fill back in and lower with sunset. Latest obs are showing some gusts as the cold air comes in, so have upped winds for tonight. Gusts should continue into tomorrow. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible through Saturday morning. MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM...Franks SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...Sites

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