Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 202247
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
647 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016
High pressure will remain over the Ohio Valley through the rest of
the work week, allowing dry weather to continue. Temperatures will
remain above normal through Friday with highs in the mid to upper
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Surface high pressure centered over the Ohio valley will allow for
another night of light winds. Given the light winds and mostly
clear skies low temperatures around 60 degrees looks likely.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday 850 mb temperatures will warm slightly to around 18
degrees C as low level thicknesses slowly rise. This will bump up
high temperatures into the upper 80s across most of the forecast
For Thursday surface high pressure will remain in close proximity
to the area keeping dry conditions in place. 850 mb temperatures
and low level thicknesses will also remain very similar to
Wednesday so have kept the high temperature forecast for Thursday
very close to Wednesday.
Thursday night into Friday morning models are showing some PVA
moving across the area but PWATs are limited at this time. On both
the GFS and NAM PWATs are forecasted to be around 1.00". There is
some reflection of the feature on the GFS Omega field but have
left forecast dry given low confidence at this point.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mid level ridging will shift slowly east across the Mississippi
Valley toward the Ohio Valley through the weekend. There are some
model differences as to its strength though and just how quickly it
will push east Saturday into Sunday. As a result, there are also
some discrepancies in the timing and placement of some weak pieces
of energy pushing over the top of the ridge and possibly affecting
northern/eastern portions of our area Friday into Saturday. Given the
uncertainty, weak forcing and relatively dry airmass, will keep the
forecast dry through the weekend. Temperatures for Friday and
Saturday will remain above normal with highs in the 80s.
There are some significant model differences through the first part
of next week. The 12Z GFS is breaking down the ridge Sunday into
Monday as some short wave energy drops down across the Great Lakes,
helping to push a cold front through our area Monday into Monday
night. Meanwhile, the 12Z CMC keeps a high amplitude ridge in place
across the region through Monday. The 12Z ECMWF is more of a
compromise, keeping the ridge in place through Monday before
allowing for a front to approach from the northwest on Tuesday. Will
trend the forecast more toward the middle of the road ECMWF,
allowing for some slight chance pops to work in from the northwest
Monday into Tuesday. Temperatures are tricky through the end of the
long term, depending an the strength of the ridge and timing of the
possible front. Will generally hedge and go with a model blend, with
highs in the 70s to possible low 80s through early next week.
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure will extend across the Ohio Valley through the TAF
period. Other than a few wisps of cirrus, skies will be mainly
clear. Only issue will be typical river valley fog at KLUK where
conditions will drop into the VLIFR category between 08Z and 11Z.
River valley fog is expected to burn off around 13Z. Winds will be
light, but will favor a northeast direction tonight and a more
east/southeast direction on Wednesday.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
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