Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 202247 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 647 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the Ohio Valley through the rest of the work week, allowing dry weather to continue. Temperatures will remain above normal through Friday with highs in the mid to upper 80s. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Surface high pressure centered over the Ohio valley will allow for another night of light winds. Given the light winds and mostly clear skies low temperatures around 60 degrees looks likely. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Wednesday 850 mb temperatures will warm slightly to around 18 degrees C as low level thicknesses slowly rise. This will bump up high temperatures into the upper 80s across most of the forecast area. For Thursday surface high pressure will remain in close proximity to the area keeping dry conditions in place. 850 mb temperatures and low level thicknesses will also remain very similar to Wednesday so have kept the high temperature forecast for Thursday very close to Wednesday. Thursday night into Friday morning models are showing some PVA moving across the area but PWATs are limited at this time. On both the GFS and NAM PWATs are forecasted to be around 1.00". There is some reflection of the feature on the GFS Omega field but have left forecast dry given low confidence at this point. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mid level ridging will shift slowly east across the Mississippi Valley toward the Ohio Valley through the weekend. There are some model differences as to its strength though and just how quickly it will push east Saturday into Sunday. As a result, there are also some discrepancies in the timing and placement of some weak pieces of energy pushing over the top of the ridge and possibly affecting northern/eastern portions of our area Friday into Saturday. Given the uncertainty, weak forcing and relatively dry airmass, will keep the forecast dry through the weekend. Temperatures for Friday and Saturday will remain above normal with highs in the 80s. There are some significant model differences through the first part of next week. The 12Z GFS is breaking down the ridge Sunday into Monday as some short wave energy drops down across the Great Lakes, helping to push a cold front through our area Monday into Monday night. Meanwhile, the 12Z CMC keeps a high amplitude ridge in place across the region through Monday. The 12Z ECMWF is more of a compromise, keeping the ridge in place through Monday before allowing for a front to approach from the northwest on Tuesday. Will trend the forecast more toward the middle of the road ECMWF, allowing for some slight chance pops to work in from the northwest Monday into Tuesday. Temperatures are tricky through the end of the long term, depending an the strength of the ridge and timing of the possible front. Will generally hedge and go with a model blend, with highs in the 70s to possible low 80s through early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will extend across the Ohio Valley through the TAF period. Other than a few wisps of cirrus, skies will be mainly clear. Only issue will be typical river valley fog at KLUK where conditions will drop into the VLIFR category between 08Z and 11Z. River valley fog is expected to burn off around 13Z. Winds will be light, but will favor a northeast direction tonight and a more east/southeast direction on Wednesday. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...Haines SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Hickman

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.