Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 251053 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 653 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TODAY. INCREASING RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND TODAY INTO SATURDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...LEADING TO OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE SLOWLY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS WE START TO GET INTO SOME RETURN FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND SOME AIRMASS MODIFICATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES WELL OFF TO THE EAST. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR HIGHS TO PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SATURDAY AND GOOD DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DAY. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST...BUT AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH ML CAPES IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG IS PROGGED TO NOSE INTO AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR A THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MEANWHILE...IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ARE FORECAST TO DROP DOWN THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN INDIANA WILL NOSE INTO NORTHWEST OHIO INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE PRIMARILY OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST AND NORTH INTO SATURDAY MORNING...SO WILL LIMIT POPS PRIMARILY TO OUR NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP HEADING INTO SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS WE SHOULD STILL BE FAIRLY UNSTABLE AND THE NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL GENERALLY REMAIN JUST OFF TO OUR NORTH INTO SATURDAY EVENING...BUT LOWER LEVEL SHEAR...BOTH 0-3 KM AND 0-1 KM...WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SEASONABLY STRONG 925-850 MB JET SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT HEADING INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE PROLONGED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. WITH PW VALUES RUNNING IN THE 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL RANGE...FLOODING MAY BECOME A CONCERN. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ASSUMING WE WILL BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE...GOOD SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE PRESENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING ANOTHER SEVERE THREAT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY EVENING. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OUT OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE FA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT CLOUD COVER AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL AND WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY AFTER TUESDAY. TUESDAY LOOKS TO HAVE TO COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURES OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SCT CU WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY. LARGE CIRRUS CANOPY TO OUR NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING CONVECTION MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY AS WELL. HOWEVER...THIS CLOUD COVER MAY DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA. MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. KEPT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IN ANTICIPATION OF CLOUD COVER PREVENTING THE FOG FROM DEVELOPING. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...LATTO

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