Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 301052 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 652 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN LATER NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH TRAVELS SLOWLY EASTWARD. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AREA IS IN A PERSISTENTLY HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LATEST RAP SHOWS PRECIP DEVELOPING WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THIS APPEARS OVERDONE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER MISSOURI AT THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP TODAY AS INSTABILITY AND FORCING INCREASES AHEAD OF THE LOW...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN NORTHWEST COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... THERE MAY BE A TEMPORARY LULL IN CONVECTION THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. BY LATER TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PUSHED TO OHIO BY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A NOTABLE INCREASE IN FORCING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A NEAR CERTAINTY IN NORTHERN COUNTIES THAT WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW TRACK. A POTENT LOW LEVEL JET...COPIOUS MOISTURE AND A BAND OF DEFORMATION WILL ALL COME INTO PLAY TO PRODUCE PERHAPS AS MUCH AS TWO INCHES OF RAIN IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE TOWARD THE SOUTH AWAY FROM THE MOST FAVORABLE FORCING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS EVIDENT ON SUNDAY IN A REGIME OF DECREASING INSTABILITY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN MONDAY ON A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE LOW WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOW 60S NORTHWEST UP TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS ON MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... FORECAST HAS SHIFTED IN TIMING RETURN FLOW TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A SLOWER SHIFT OF WINDS IN THE TUES-THURS TIME FRAME FROM EAST TO EVENTUALLY SOUTH HAS HELPED KEEP A DRIER AND COOLER FORECAST FOR THE BETTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL EXTEND A RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE IN THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN MEANDER EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. WITH THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS HOLDING SWAY OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME...HAVE REMOVED POPS UNTIL THURS AFTERNOON WHEN SOME RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE WOULD BE EXPECTED. TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...STARTING WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S MONDAY RISING TO AROUND 80 WEDNESDAY AND LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. DRIER AIR WILL PERMIT LOWS TO DIP INTO THE 50S MON NIGHT AND INCREASE TO AROUND 60 WED NIGHT...JUMPING TO THE MID 60S WHEN THE FLOW TURNS SOUTH AND MOISTURE INCREASES LATE IN THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A COUPLE OF SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING...AFFECTING ILN AND IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER COULD MOVE TOWARD CMH. WILL LIKELY HAVE VCSH IN ATTM THROUGH 14Z-15Z. OTHERWISE...PREVAILING VFR THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...CONTINUE VCTS IN TAFS. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE MID TO LATE EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL RESIDE JUST NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS CLOSER TO A FRONT/LOW PRESSURE...BUT CHANCES WILL START TO INCREASE AGAIN AFT 06Z. SOME GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS LOWERING CIGS TO AT LEAST MVFR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...AND KEPT CIGS IN VFR ATTM. OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR OR IFR CIGS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...FRANKS AVIATION...BPP

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