Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 011744 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 144 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. WITH HEATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH BETTER COVERAGE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. FORECAST HIGHS NEAR A MOS CONSENSUS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH SUBTLE SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH IT WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST DURING THE PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH AT THE SURFACE WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST AS WELL BY SUNDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WITH HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ON SATURDAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN WITH COVERAGE GREATER THAN FRIDAY. APPEARS THAT ACTIVITY MAY PASS EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY WITH MUCH OF THIS EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING. STILL HELD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SUNDAY IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE TROUGH. BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY. MOS SEEMS TO BE REASONABLE FOR THE MOST PART WITH TEMPERATURES. USED A BLEND TO SMOOTH OUT ANY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD KEEPING THE REGION DRY. A SHORT WAVE DROPPING IN WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME STORMS TO PUSH TOWARDS WEST CENTRAL OHIO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN INDICATED A MORE ENERGETIC AND DEEPER TROUGH IN THE EAST WHICH ALLOWS A COLD FRONT TO DRIVE THROUGH THE REGION MID WEEK. EVEN THOUGH THESE TWO MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT HAVE STAYED WITH FLATTER GFS/GEFS MEAN WHICH MAINTAINS BETTER CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS SUGGESTS THAT A FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY IT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO HAVE SOME STORMS MOVE OFF THE BOUNDARY AND POSSIBLY AFFECT NORTHERN COUNTIES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GFS SOLUTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE INVERTED TROF WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL ROTATE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...TRYING TO PINPOINT SUBTLE CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES AND WEAK FORCING WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO GO WITH ANY TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS ISSUANCE. SO HAVE EITHER EMPLOYED VCTS OR VCSH...ALLOWING SHORT TERM TRENDS (RADAR AND CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS) DICTATE ANY NECESSARY AMENDMENTS. GIVEN THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...HAVE KEPT POTENTIAL MIST/FOG IN THE MVFR...LOCAL...IFR RANGE. ON SATURDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH WEAK SURFACE TROF...AND DAYTIME HEATING...WE SHOULD SEE THE GREATEST COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME PREDOMINATE LIGHT SHOWERS BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z ALONG WITH VCTS/CB DESCRIPTORS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...HICKMAN SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...HICKMAN

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