Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 190022 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 822 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Snow showers will taper off this evening with decreasing clouds overnight. Dry and breezy conditions are expected on Tuesday along with more seasonable temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... Scattered to numerous light snow showers will continue across the area through the rest of the afternoon. These will begin to dissipate heading into this evening as we lose the diurnal component and the low level flow begins to back around more to the west. This will also allow for a clearing trend for later this evening and into tonight. It will be a cold night with overnight lows in the low to mid 20s. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Some mid level energy will move across the region through the day on Tuesday in progressive northwest flow aloft. This will help push a cold front southeast into our area through Tuesday night. Ahead of this, a tightening pressure gradient will lead to increasing southwest winds. With good mixing, some wind gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range will be possible from late morning and into the afternoon Tuesday. This will lead to some decent drying through the day with RHs dropping down into the low to mid 20s through the afternoon. This could lead to some increased fire concerns during the day on Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday will be in the low to mid 50s with lows Tuesday night in the low to mid 30s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Longwave trough over eastern North America persists Wednesday into Thursday. This will help to maintain cooler air over the region. Breezy conditions are forecast on Wednesday behind a dry cold front that passes through the area Tuesday night. Even cooler air arrives Wednesday night into the Thursday as surface high pressure builds over the Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley. Can`t rule out a few areas reaching the upper teens Wednesday night. Mid-level flow becomes more zonal Thursday night into Friday as the longwave trough ejects northeastward for a brief period. This will allow for a closed low moving through the southeast CONUS to move northeastward into the Ohio Valley. In combination with a shortwave moving through the northern Plains, precipitation will spread over the area Friday morning through the day. Given the cooler air in place, can`t rule out some mixed precipitation across far northern locations during the onset of precipitation. Otherwise, warm air advection in the lower levels will help melt any snow/ice pellets before reaching the ground. The longwave trough fails to become firmly established over the weekend so temperatures are currently forecast to be near normal. A more significant change in the longwave pattern is possible next week with general troughing over the western CONUS and ridging over the eastern CONUS. This would support additional chances for rain and warmer conditions. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Longwave mid level trof has pivoted thru the region leaving northwest flow. Favorable low level flow off Lake Michigan and steep low level lapse rates led to widespread snow showers this afternoon. With loss of daytime heating the snow shower activity has shown a decreasing trends. This trend will continue thru this evening with skies becoming mostly clear overnight with VFR conditions prevailing through the remainder of the TAF period. Gusty northwest winds will back southwest and decrease to generally 10 kts or or less overnight. Southwest winds will increase through the day Tuesday with wind gusts in the 30 to 35 knot range possible Tuesday afternoon. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...McGinnis AVIATION...AR

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