Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 172059 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 359 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A strong low pressure system will approach the region tonight. A cold front will move through Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure is situated east of the area and southerly flow has allowed temperatures to rise into the 40s to low 50s. Temperatures will drop off early this evening, however temperatures will rise then through the overnight hours as warm air advection increases. Isentropic lift will allow for some shower activity for the first part of the overnight hours. As the low level jet increases overnight expect an area of more widespread shower activity to move across the region. Cannot rule out some isolated thunder with elevated instability. Winds and wind gusts will increase through the night. There is a pretty good inversion in place, however with some of the shower activity cannot rule out seeing some wind gusts around 30 to 35 mph by the end of the near term.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Gusty winds will continue through the short term time period. Although gusty winds will be present through the time period there may be slightly less wind gusts during the late morning into the early afternoon hours with the low cigs and before the convection works in there may be limited mixing. The GFS has a thin ribbon of instability during the afternoon to early evening hours. The NAM has less in the way of instability across the region. Expect at least some chance for thunder and therefore went with a chance of thunder. Due to the strong low level wind field cannot rule out an isolated strong to severe storm with damaging winds being the primary threat. Some of the rain may also be heavy at times, however expect any flooding to be isolated in nature. The cold front will work through during the afternoon and into the evening hours. In advance of this feature temperatures will continue to rise into the 60s across most of the region. Strong cold air advection will work into the region with the frontal passage. After the frontal passage is when the strongest wind gusts are expected. 8 pm to 2 am is the time frame where the strongest wind gusts are expected across the region. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible during this time. Although the best chance of wind advisory winds will be during this time (wind advisory criteria is 31-39 mph sustained, 46-57 mph gusts), decided to have start and end the advisory before and after this time with the potential for gusty winds through the entire advisory time. As the widespread precipitation tapers off Saturday night there will be lingering low level moisture. Model sounding profiles indicate that the area will be right on the edge on whether there is enough cold air that any residual precipitation with winds off of the lake will be in the from of drizzle or flurries. At this point with it being close, went with flurries.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A secondary short wave will pivot across the area through Sunday afternoon along with the core of coldest air. Moisture will remain fairly shallow, mainly at or below 850 mb, but in weakly cyclonic low level flow, some scattered flurries or a few snow showers will be possible, with the best chance being across our northern areas. Temperatures will likely struggle to rise all that much with highs on Sunday only in the mid 30s to possibly upper 30s across our south. Surface high pressure will build east across the Tennessee Valley to the mid Atlantic Coast Monday into Tuesday. With A dry airmass in place and some developing WAA, highs on Monday will push into the low to mid 40s and then the upper 40s to lower 50s by Tuesday. Short wave energy moving across the Great Lakes will help push a cold front southeast across our area Tuesday night. Moisture is limited though so the main affect will just be a reinforcing shot of colder air. This will lead to highs on Wednesday and Thursday in the upper 30s to low/mid 40s as surface high pressure again moves east across the region. Expect dry conditions to continue into Friday with some moderating temperatures as we get on the back side of the high.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will allow for dry conditions across the region for the remainder of the daytime hours. There is some isentropic lift later this evening into tonight which will allow for some shower activity. Off and on shower activity will be possible through the TAF period. Cannot rule out some isolated thunder towards the end of the TAF period, however due to the isolated nature decided to leave out at this time. Winds and wind gusts will pick up tonight. There will be the potential for some LLWS at times overnight as well. Cigs will gradually lower tonight with MVFR TO IFR cigs possible by the end of the TAF period. OUTLOOK...MVFR or IFR ceilings and visibilities likely Saturday into Saturday night. MVFR ceilings to linger on Sunday. Thunderstorms possible on Saturday. Gusty winds between 30 and 40 knots likely Saturday into Saturday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
OH...Wind Advisory from noon Saturday to 4 AM EST Sunday for OHZ026- 034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...Wind Advisory from noon Saturday to 4 AM EST Sunday for KYZ089>100. IN...Wind Advisory from noon Saturday to 4 AM EST Sunday for INZ050- 058-059-066-073>075-080.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Novak

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.