Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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511 FXUS61 KILN 201408 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 908 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will drift slowly east across the region today. Morning fog will give way to afternoon sunshine and warmer temperatures. A very weak cold front will move through on Tuesday, allowing for scattered rain showers. The weak front will wash out in the area as much above normal temperatures continue through the workweek. Another storm system will bring additional rain chances toward the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Dense fog remains across the forecast area this morning with a dense fog advisory in effect until 10 AM. Timing on the advisory looks good as latest KILN sounding shows the depth of the fog only around ~100m or so. 850 mb temperatures on the sounding were 8 degrees C which would support high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. Current forecast has this covered nicely and no update is required at this time. Prev Discussion-> Surface high pressure centered over the region this morning will shift off to the east as a sharp full latitude ridge builds into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Mainly clear skies and light winds have set the stage for a good radiational cooling setup. With a very moist low level widespread dense fog has developed. Have expanded the dense fog advisory north to include all of ILN/s counties through 10 AM. Expect fog to improve by late morning with mainly high level cloud in the offering this afternoon. Clouds and a cool start will initial hold temperatures back early but expect readings to rise to highs 20 to 25 degrees above normal. These highs to range from the lower 60s northeast to the upper 60s southwest.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Northern stream upper trough to track through the northern plains today and though the Great Lakes Tuesday. NAM soln phases this northern system with a southern upper low and therefore is a little slower and much more robust with pcpn event. GFS/ECMWF consensus solns do not phase these systems, are more progressive and therefore less aggressive with pcpn event from a weakening frontal system. NAM soln is an outlier and therefore have followed this blended GFS/ECMWF soln with clouds increasing tonight but precipitation holding off until early Tuesday. In waa pattern mild temperatures to continue tonight with lows from the mid 40s northeast to the lower 50s southwest. With low level jet and associated forcing lifting northeast through the Great LAkes have gone with likely pops across the north Tuesday and chance elsewhere. The front pushes into Ohio and washes out. Expect continued warm readings with highs from the mid 60s northwest to near 70 southeast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Weakening boundary will be moving east Tuesday night into Wednesday, with shower chances diminishing. A warm front developing ahead of low pressure will be the focus for shower and thunderstorm formation on Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will become likely on Friday when a trailing cold front is forecast to cross the area. There may be a few strong thunderstorms organized by strong wind fields associated with the cold front. Mainly dry weather is expected Saturday and Sunday as a large area of high pressure builds in on a broad westerly flow aloft. Temperatures will be well above normal Wednesday through Friday due to warm advection in the low levels coupled with a ridge aloft. Highs are forecast to be mainly in the 60s, with lower 70s possible Friday. Look for readings to retreat closer to normal for Saturday and Sunday, when cold advection will drop highs back into the 40s to low 50s. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface high pressure is centered east of TAF sites. Dense FG has formed in shallow moisture trapped under a subsidence inversion, resulting in VLIFR conditions. As mixing erodes the thin saturated layer, models show improvement to LIFR within one hour of issuance, with MVFR by 16z, and VFR by around 18z. After conditions rise to VFR, sky cover will consist of mid and high clouds. Winds will be from the southeast at 7 knots or less. For CVG and their 30 hour TAF, VFR is forecast to persist after 12z Tuesday, with south winds around 10 knots. Showers along the next front should hold off until after 18z Tuesday. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible Tuesday night and Wednesday. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures Date CVG CMH DAY Mon 2/20 72(1891/2016) 68(1891/2016) 69(2016) Tue 2/21 70(1930) 71(1997) 68(1930) Wed 2/22 71(1922) 70(1930) 69(1922) Thu 2/23 72(1985/1996) 66(1906/1985) 68(1985) Fri 2/24 72(1930) 72(1961) 67(1930/1961) && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for OHZ026-034- 035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for KYZ089>100. IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for INZ050-058- 059-066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines/AR NEAR TERM...Haines/AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...Coniglio CLIMATE...

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