Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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565 FXUS61 KILN 212349 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 649 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will remain mild through Wednesday before cooling to more seasonable levels by the end of next week. A storm system and surface low pressure center will ride up into the lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley region Sunday and then move very slowly northeastward along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians. This system will keep our weather unsettled through Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Regional radar mosaic has shown some enhanced echos developing across the eastern portions of the forecast area. Echos are still light but there are some embedded showers that could be producing some light rain at the surface in spots. The HRRR has been representing this fairly well today and continues to show some backbuilding of isold showers further west across the area through the overnight period. Consequently increased pops across the entire area tonight to handle this potential. Any precipitation will be light. There will also be the potential for some fog in our far northwest where there is a better chance for some clearing overnight. Did beef up the fog a bit for these areas, generally north and west of a Richmond to Versailles to Kenton line. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Storm system poised to push into the Ohio Valley by Sunday will produce some overrunning precipitation from south to north through the day. Areas along the Ohio River should expect to see rain developing by around sunrise or just after. Rain should push northward from there, entering our northern most zones by late afternoon. Forecast soundings did suggest a hint of some elevated instability. As such continued to included a mention of thunder. However, better instability appears to hold off until later in the day as the storm center gets closer to our area and generally across the southern third of our area. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A significant change in the overall mean flow will occur during the coming week, with ridging building into the western United States and troughing in the east. This will signal a return to more normal winter like temperatures late in the week along with the chance for periodic light snow showers and rain showers from Wednesday night into Friday night. However, before this transition occurs we will be focused on low pressure at the surface and aloft that will be moving out of the TN Valley northeastward up the Appalachians from Sunday night into Monday. This will bring rain to the forecast area. There is fairly good agreement among the models on this scenario and agreement that the heaviest rains will remain south and east of the forecast area. The 12Z NAM is an outlier with QPF in our area, generating in excess of 1.5 inches in parts of the southern forecast area from late Sunday into Monday night. However other models and GFS ensembles and the SREF support lower rainfall totals during this time, and this is reflected in WPC guidance and the NDFD forecast. In the wake of the low pressure moving off to our northeast, somewhat cooler air will move into the area at the start of the week. However temperatures will remain above normal, and temperatures will warm even more on Wednesday ahead of an advancing cold front. Brief ridging at the surface and aloft will build into the OH Valley and Great Lakes Tuesday, ahead of the advancing cold front. The cold front will move east of the area late Wednesday, and this will signal a downward trend in temperatures that will continue through the end of the week. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR conditions will prevail through much of the period. Mid deck will persist overnight. There could be a few light showers falling out of those clouds, with central Ohio having the better chance of seeing any precipitation. But even if that occurs, there will be no restrictions. South winds will back to easterly towards 12Z. Clouds will lower during the day as showers spread north ahead of a surface low. Conditions will stay VFR initially as precipitation starts, but some heavier pockets of rain will eventually cause some MVFR visibilities. In addition, moistening low levels will lead to MVFR ceilings developing below 2000 ft before the TAF period ends. Winds will back further to northeast and strengthen slightly. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities will occur Sunday night into Monday night. MVFR ceilings may linger into Tuesday. MVFR ceilings possible again Wednesday into Thursday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Ray NEAR TERM...Ray SHORT TERM...Ray LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...

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