Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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736 FXUS61 KILN 030245 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 945 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build into the area Saturday and move off to the east Sunday morning. An upper level disturbance will quickly move across the region on Sunday bringing a chance of some light rain and possibly some brief mixed precipitation. Another area of high pressure will briefly build into the region Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Some light drizzle is being reported just west of the area this evening with a small break appearing in the clouds near Mansfield. This was hinted at by the GFS and NAM 900 mb RH fields but the break appears to be rather small. The GFS continues to show the low clouds slowly eroding Saturday only to have high clouds stream northeast across the area from the upper level low over northern Mexico. The NAM on the other hand keeps the low clouds rather thick across the area tonight into Saturday. Have kept the forecast overcast and therefore have adjusted low temperates up a bit for Saturday morning. Prev Discussion-> Low clouds remain across the area and extend well upstream. There are some thin spots in northwest Ohio into southern Michigan. And there is some potential for these to develop into breaks and move into central Ohio. Otherwise, it appears that clouds will persist through the night. Light echoes seen on radar have been producing some sprinkles and expect this to continue into the evening, possibly mixing with flurries, before ending. With expected cloud cover, have opted to go a bit above guidance, closer to model 2 m temperatures.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will build in Saturday and low level temperature advection finally turns warm. So low clouds should finally erode. But extensive high clouds will have already overspread the area by the time this happens. So it appears that there will be little to no sun. Short wave will move out of the central Plains Saturday night and pivot across the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes Sunday into Sunday evening. This will result in the development of light precipitation. It may start out as some very light rain/snow mix but should change over to all rain by the time the bulk of the precipitation moves in. It is not out of the question that it could mix back in parts of the area before ending Sunday evening. Precipitation amounts will average .10 inch or less with little or no snow accumulation. Expect little variation in either highs or lows from the past few days. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will be situated across the area at the start of the long term allowing for a dry and calm start to the work week. Multiple systems will move across the region through the week. A large system will move up from the south late Monday night. The superblend and GFS seem to be a little fast with this system and the trend in some of the models including the ECMWF has been toward a slower solution therefore used this as a target of opportunity to lean towards a slower solution. With the warmer air being drawn up into the region expect precipitation to generally be in the form of rain through this event. There will be lull in the precipitation on Wednesday before the next system late Wednesday night into Thursday. There is quite a bit of model variation with this. The GFS continues to be pretty dry while the ECMWF brings more moisture into the region. Went closer to the wetter ECMWF solution. The ECMWF has trended cooler therefore there is the potential that some snow will also be possible on Thursday. Models do agree that much colder air will then work down into the region for the end of the long term. With this pattern kept a slight chance of precipitation chances in with the potential for some lake effect snow showers. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Another night of MVFR/ VFR cigs is likely this evening as an upper level low over southeastern Canada slowly pulls east. Models have tried to hint at some partial clearing occurring overnight near KCMH/ KLCK terminals with low clouds redeveloping by sunrise Saturday morning. High res models then try to develop some fog where the clouds clear out. Looking upstream currently there is not much clearing going on and have kept TAFs trended towards clouds holding on. By Saturday afternoon GFS forecast soundings are showing the SC deck eroding as the upper level low pulls east while the NAM keeps the clouds in thick. Overall have trended TAFs to rising CIGs Saturday evening. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible on Sunday and also Monday night into Wednesday morning. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...Haines SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...Haines

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