Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 271846 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 246 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...RESULTING IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... HAVE REMOVED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS AFTERNOON. JUST COULD NOT IN GOOD CONSCIENCE CONTINUE A WATCH WHERE THE WORST THAT WOULD HAPPEN WOULD BE ISOLATED NUISANCE FLOODING DUE TO MORE PROGRESSIVE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC BASED TOR WATCH ISSUANCE BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF SUN HITTING THE OPEN SPACES OUTSIDE OF THE STRATUS DECKS THAT ARE AROUND...A STILL DECENTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY EXPECTED LATER TODAY. I WAS OF A MIND THAT THE STRATUS OVER THE IN/OH BORDER WOULD KEEP MOVING EAST AND LIMIT HEATING...EFFECTIVELY SQUASHING ANY DEEP CONVECTION IN THE HERE AND NOW. MODELS WERE NOT PUTTING MUCH PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. INITIALLY HAD ADJUSTED POPS AND SEVERITY DOWNWARD BUT THEN RAMPED THEM BACK UP WITH WATCH ISSUANCE. EASTERN CWA SOUTH OF COLUMBUS MAY GO EARLY AND SUPPORT A LARGE THUNDERSTORM BUT THIS HAS TO START RELATIVELY QUICKLY BEFORE THE UPSTREAM STRATUS CUTS OFF ANY LIFT IN THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD AND THEN BLENDED THEM TOWARDS EXPECTED VALUES TOWARDS 0Z. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS DOWN THROUGH THE REGION. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...LEADING TO SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DIURNAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. A BROAD/DEEP TROUGH WILL THEN REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME WEAK IMPULSES POSSIBLY DROPPING DOWN TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS BUT CHANCE APPEARS LOW ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY AGAIN ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MORE H5 ENERGY SWINGS INTO THE ERN US TROF ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS IN THE UPPER TROF...MODELS CUT OFF THE LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NEAR KCMH AND KLCK. HAVE A TEMPO FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF VCTS. WENT WITH A VCTS MENTION FOR KDAY AND KILN. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND KCVG AND KLUK KEPT THUNDER MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OFF AND ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT HOWEVER WINDS WILL STAY UP SOME THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DUE TO THIS KEPT FOG MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS. LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS WORKING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKS INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH SHOWERS. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...NOVAK

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