Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 140544 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 144 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT AND CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT EARLY IN THE EVENING. BUT EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE AGAIN BEFORE DAYBREAK. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND THIS COMBINATION WILL KEEP READINGS QUITE WARM OVERNIGHT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOME SHOWERS MAY PUSH INTO WESTERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH IF THEY DO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. THE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE SHOWERS MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...AND INDICATIONS AT THIS MOMENT IN TIME ARE THAT ENOUGH OF A WARM LAYER ALOFT IS PRESENT THAT SLEET IS A REAL POSSIBILITY UNTIL THE ENTIRE COLUMN COOLS DOWN AND SNOW BECOMES PREVALENT. AT THIS MOMENT...AN INCH OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN NORTHWESTERN CWA MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE RAPID DECREASE IN PRECIP EARLY TUESDAY WILL LIMIT MOST OF THE REGION TO LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION GIVEN WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES. A RAPID TURN-OFF TO THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AND THERE WILL BE ONLY A MODEST TEMPERATURE RECOVERY EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...LOW 40S IN MOST AREAS. THE CLEARING SKIES AND CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. TUESDAYS HIGHS WILL BE A FULL 25-30 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY...WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TODAYS LOWER 80S. MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY FOR THE NORTHWEST WHERE IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO REACH PAST TONIGHTS LOW TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIP TO THE EAST PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS THEN ARE SHOWING WIDE VARIATIONS IN THE HANDLING OF ENERGY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THE GFS IS THE MOST ENERGIZED... WRAPPING UP A CLOSED H5 OVER THE NRN GREAT PLAINS THU NIGHT LEADING TO A WELL DEFINED SFC LOW AND CDFNT IN THE MS VALLEY. THE GFS SWINGS THE FNT AND ASSOCIATED PCPN INTO THE FA WED AFTN. THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE SUBDUED WITH JUST WEAK H5 TROF AND AN INVERTED SFC TROF. THE CANADIAN HEMISPHERIC IS THE MAN IN THE MIDDLE. THE GFS LOOKS TOO WRAPPED UP. WPC MEDIUM GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARDS THE WEAKER ECMWF AND SO WILL I. SO KEPT THE POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY IN THE W AND SLIGHT CHC IN THE E. THEN AS THE SYSTEM SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT WENT WITH CHC POPS. THE SYSTEM PULLS E ON SATURDAY...LEAVING A LINGERING SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN THE WARMING TREND FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL WORK TO AROUND 50 OR THE LOWER 50S. WITH THE REGION IN SLY FLOW ON THU HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD JUMP TO THE 60S. KEPT HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 60S...WITH THE SE STAYING AROUND 70 ON FRIDAY...SINCE I LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER ECMWF. THE WEEKEND HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A LARGE BAND OF RAIN APPROACHING THE AREA FROM WESTERN KENTUCKY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES ACROSS OUR TERMINALS STARTING AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THE MORNING DAYLIGHT HOURS. STRONG WINDS ALOFT MAY REACH THE SURFACE AS THIS WEAKENING BAND OF PRECIPITATION PASSES...WHICH COULD RESULT A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE WINDS GUSTS REACH 30 TO 35 KT. THESE GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO AROUND 25 KT FOR THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR TERMINALS AROUND 21Z. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE WEST. BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR WITH A STEADY RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR VSBYS WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. OUTLOOK...IFR CIGS AND MVFR TO IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER EARLY INTO THE DAY TUESDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...LATTO

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