Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 192346 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 746 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... SHOWER ACTIVITY IS PRETTY LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LIMITED ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LIMITED TODAY AND THEREFORE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER LOOKS QUITE EXTENSIVE OVERNIGHT. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA HOWEVER EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO STAY CLOUDY. WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS WELL. HAVE PATCHY FOG MENTION IN ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WENT ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS STILL DO NOT LOOK GREAT FOR THUNDER HOWEVER A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY THAN TODAY. DUE TO THIS HAVE KEPT THUNDER MENTION IN DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WEAK TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH CLOUDS DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND EAST INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL. A DEVELOPING TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-71. A LIGHT FLOW REGIME OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH A GOOD DEAL OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS AND FOG TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOWARD THE LATER PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM... AVIATION...JGL

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