Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 190955 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 455 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY WITH NAM INDICATING ANYWHERE FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREE CELSIUS RISE IN 850 TEMPERATURES FROM 09Z TO 18Z. BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS COLD ADVECTION THEN RECOMMENCES LATE IN THE DAY. AN INVERSION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SO WHILE TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY... THEY WILL NOT WARM AS MUCH AS ALOFT WITH HIGHS STILL COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MID CLOUDS ALREADY STREAMING TOWARDS THE AREA WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE. STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL DROP OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE TODAY WHICH WILL PUSH LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE LIGHT AND MODELS HAVING A BIT OF CHALLENGE DETERMINING WHEN BETTER CHANCE OF ANYTHING FALLING WILL OCCUR. HAVE RELIED STRONGLY ON A BLEND OF HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS. SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD CLIP THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING ON THE APEX OF A LOW LEVEL JET QUICKLY TRANSLATING ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO GET TO THE SURFACE EVEN WITH THE PERSISTENT INVERSION. SO GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR AND RESULT IN IT NOT FEELING AS WARM AS WHAT AIR TEMPERATURES WILL REACH. THEN EXPECT A NARROW BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS THAT THE BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND EVEN AT THAT IT ONLY WARRANTED LOW CHANCE POPS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING WELL INTO THE EVENING. FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FALL BETWEEN MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION SO LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THURSDAY AND THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME MORE FLURRIES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY GETS SCOURED OUT THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GOOD DEAL OF SUN ON FRIDAY. THURSDAY WILL HAVE HIGHS MORE THAN 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME SLIGHT WARMING ON FRIDAY PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO DROP OFF INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S DURING THE EVENING WITH RISING READINGS LATER IN THE NIGHT AT LEAST IN WESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS SHOWING SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE LOCATION OF AN AXIS OF MOISTURE RETURN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. THAT WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL BE A ZONE WHERE PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS JUST SLIGHTLY. BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY BECAUSE IT LOOKS QUITE LIKELY THAT WARM AIR WILL OVERRIDE THE SURFACE. THUS RESULTING THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING RAIN...IF ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURS...UNTIL THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CAN RISE ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY MORNING. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN WESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY HIGH AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING. A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY WITH THE TIMING JUST A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL EVEN WITH THE PRECIPITATION. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING SUBTLE PIECES OF ENERGY TO QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH AND PROVIDE LIFT IN ADDITION TO THE FRONTAL ZONE...HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACRS THE AREA. THIS WILL FINALLY END THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WILL BRING A TEMPORARY END TO THE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS. CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY CLEAR KCVG AND THIS CLEARING LINE SHOULD MOVE E OF THE AREA BY 10Z. NEXT COLD FRONT CURRENT EXTENDING FROM MN THRU NORTHEAST NB WILL MOVE ACRS THE FORECAST AREA WED EVENING. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING AND CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER DURING THE DAY REACHING MVFR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO FCST MVFR VSBYS WITH THIS SNOW IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE ACRS THE THE NORTH INCLUDING KDAY/KCMH/KLCK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SW 5 TO 12KT INCREASING AFTER SUNRISE TO 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30KT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER MORE TO THE WEST EARLY WED NIGHT AT AROUND 10 TO 15KT. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...HAYDU

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