Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 262154 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 454 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A CLIPPER WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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STRATUS ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS SLOWLY ERODING AS HIGH AND MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER DROPPING THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SPREAD INTO THE REGION. SO THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA. THE CLIPPER WILL TURN EAST OVER TENNESSEE. THIS WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY. HOWEVER COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DRAW LOWER CLOUDS BACK ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK. FORECAST LOWS ARE CLOSE TO WARMER GFS MOS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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SHORT WAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GET SOME FLURRIES DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. SOMEWHAT ENHANCED MOISTURE PLUME BRIEFLY COMING OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BUT ONLY FELT THIS WARRANTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH FLURRIES BEING MORE PREDOMINANT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE VARIABLE AS THE LOWER DECK DISSIPATES THURSDAY NIGHT. BUT AN AREA OF MID CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST TEMPERATURES STAYED GENERALLY WITHIN THE MOS ENVELOPE.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF DRY. WWA WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON SATURDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE. COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS. HAVE TEMPERATURES DROPPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END BY MONDAY EVENING. WITH THE COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE...MONDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE LONG TERM WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AGAIN BY TUESDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE 40S. THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH THE ECMWF BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. WENT CLOSER TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND COOLER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR WEDNESDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A SOLID MVFR STRATUS DECK IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IT HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME SMALL SIGNS OF EROSION ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF IT ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. THIS AREA MAY CONTINUE TO TRANSITION MORE TO A SC/CU FIELD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND IF THIS OCCURS...WE COULD SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. THE BEST SHOT OF THIS WOULD APPEAR TO BE AT KCVG/KLUK AND WILL TRY TO SCATTER THEM OUT FOR A PERIOD EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE 925 MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME NORTHERLY AND INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ASSUMING THERE IS STILL SOME STRATUS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...WOULD EXPECT STRATUS TO ADVECT BACK IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE ON THE MORE PESSIMISTIC SIDE WITH A GENERAL MVFR CIG FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...JGL

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