Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 280554 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 154 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARDS TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL START TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK IN. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST IS SLOWLY PUSHING EAST WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA WHICH WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE SHORTWAVE BUT THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH WHICH WILL AFFECT DISTRIBUTION OF POPS. THIS FORCING WILL BE OFFSET BY WEAKENING INSTABILITY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. STILL WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTHWEST WHERE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT. WHILE IT APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING...SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY MAKE IT INTO FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. EXPECT WEAKENED CONVECTION TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF THE FA BY 6 AM AS PER LATEST HRRR. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... THURSDAY MORNING THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE PUSHING NORTHEAST LEAVING THE AREA IN A WEAK SUBSIDENCE ZONE. AT THE SURFACE THERE WILL BE A WEAK LOW WITH DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE (SUPPORTED BY BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS). BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW US BEGINNING TO DESTABILIZE WITH HIGHEST CAPE VALUES TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG WHILE THE GFS HAS VALUES JUST SHY OF 1000 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME THURSDAY AFTERNOON A WEAK FRONT WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE LEFT OVER UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. DUE TO THE MENTIONED ABOVE HAVE INCREASED POPS AGAIN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFTER A SHORT BREAK THURSDAY MORNING. THINK OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT BUT GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS. ON FRIDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A DRY DAY ON FRIDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND CONTINUED HIGH POPS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NO REAL INDICATION OF ANY SEVERE OR HYDRO ISSUES FOR THIS EVENT FOR NOW. SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BUT SOME MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER S/W SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR NOW FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE FIRST OF THE WEEK HAVE LOWERED POPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS INDICATED. TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE WITH SEASONABLY COOL NIGHTS AND SEASONABLY MILD DAYTIME HIGHS. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS PRECIPITATION. ONCE THE WIDESPREAD RAIN ENDS THE CEILINGS BECOME MORE CHALLENGING. EXPECT CEILINGS TO FALL TO IFR...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE COLUMBUS AREA...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE A LAG BETWEEN THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDING AND THE LOW CEILINGS DEVELOPING. CEILINGS WILL LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...A FRONT WILL BE PUSHING NORTH BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CINCINNATI TERMINALS BUT LIKELY NOT MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS KDAY/KCMH/KLCK. EXPECT NEW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN TIME WHETHER ANY OF THE TERMINALS WOULD BE IMPACTED. SO JUST CONTINUED WITH VC. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK TO IFR TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAINES NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HAINES SHORT TERM...HAINES LONG TERM...PADGETT AVIATION...

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