Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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214 FXUS61 KILN 231320 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 920 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will push slowly east across the region today and Tuesday, providing dry conditions and a gradual warming trend. A series of upper level disturbances will then bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms at times through the end of the work week. Temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal through the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Surface high pressure will be in place today. A weak upper level disturbance will be generally east of the area. Cannot rule out a sprinkle across extreme eastern portions of the region however with dry air in place went with a dry forecast. Cu are expected to develop today primarily over eastern and southeastern portions of the forecast area. With a decent amount of sunshine today went on the warm side or warmer than guidance for temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mid/upper level ridging will shift slowly east across the region through Tuesday, before beginning to break down a bit Tuesday night into Wednesday. Meanwhile, the associated surface high pressure will will gradually weaken as it shifts off to the east. The airmass will remain fairly dry Monday night into Tuesday, so expect mainly clear skies to persist. As the airmass continues to modify, highs on Tuesday will push into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Some moisture will start to work over the ridge Tuesday night so will allow for lower chance pops to move in from the northwest late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. There is little if any instability at this point though so will limit any pcpn to just showers. However, as we warm into the low 80s on Wednesday, we will destabilize through the day, leading to a chance of thunderstorms by Wednesday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Relatively zonal H5 flow will affect the fa on Wednesday. Surface moisture will be on the increase along with the instability. Embedded vort maxs in the upper flow will provide lift for scattered thunderstorms to develop. Highs on Wednesday will be a few degrees either side of 80. H5 ridge along the east coast will build a little Thursday into Friday. This will allow the humidity to build for the end of the week, but spring like convection is expected each day into night. The fa finds itself warm sectored as a front is stalled across the upper Great Lakes. It is hard to put real timing in the extended with this type of pattern. Right now went with 40 PoPs on Thursday and Friday. The ridge continues to build over the weekend, brining summer like highs in the mid 80s. Scattered convection, however will remain a possibility Saturday and Sunday. Lows should be mild through the period, as they will generally be in the mid 60s. && .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will remain in control through TAF period. Expect only a few high based cu in the afternoon. Winds light and variable. Should see a repeat of fog at KLUK tonight if not a little more dense possible. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon through Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Sites AVIATION...Padgett

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