Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 280252 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 952 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT... PROVIDING CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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HIGH CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOT FAR BEHIND OVER INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. WITH SOME CLEAR AREAS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...AND CLOUDY AREAS ELSEWHERE...THE VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA IS ALREADY QUITE LARGE. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...MARYSVILLE IS ALREADY DOWN TO -5 DEGREES (0234Z)...WHILE THE KENTUCKY MESONET SITE NEAR CARROLLTON IS AT 17 DEGREES (0245Z) WITH 5 KNOTS OF WIND. MIN TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY UPWARD...WHERE CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN CLOUDS AND A LITTLE BIT OF WIND (MAINLY THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN CWA). TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED IN THE FAR NORTH...BUT THE RAPID RATE OF RADIATIONAL REDUCTION SHOULD SLOW DOWN AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION > BROAD MID LEVEL TROF WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. IN WESTERLY FLOW...ARCTIC SFC HIGH WILL BUILD EAST BECOMING CENTERED OVER EASTERN OHIO BY SAT MORNING. SATELLITE... OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LINGERING FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO. THESE FLURRIES SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS. SFC HIGH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AND WITH SNOW PACK...VERY GOOD CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. INCREASING MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS ENCROACHING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT THERE. HAVE LOWS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SOUTH. THIS WILL PUT RECORD LOWS IN JEOPARDY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SATURDAY EVENING. RETURN FLOW DEVELOP ON BACKSIDE OF RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE. IN WAA PATTERN EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN MID/HI LEVEL WAA CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME...READINGS WILL REMAIN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS FROM NEAR 20 NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S FAR SOUTH. FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PCPN DEVELOPING LATE. BASED ON TRENDS HAVE ONLY SLIGHTLY SLOWED DOWN ONSET WITH CATEGORICAL POPS INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO BY SUNDAY MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITATION STARTS OUT AS ALL SNOW WITH A CHANGE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY PRIOR TO TEMP WARMING ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT EARLY LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE MID/UPR 20S SOUTH WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. 40-45 KT LLJ DEVELOPS SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT. WEAK SFC WAVE TO TRACK NE THRU NRN OHIO SUNDAY AFTN. UNDER CONTINUED WAA EXPECT PCPN TO TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. IN THE FAR NW NEVER GO COMPLETELY TO RAIN...KEEPING A RAIN/SNOW MIX. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC WAVE A COLD FRONT TO DROP SE THRU ILN/S FA SUNDAY NIGHT AND PCPN WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW AND DIMINISH FROM THE NW. STORM TOTAL FCST SNOW RANGES FROM 5 INCHES ACRS THE FAR NW TO LESS THAN AN INCH SE. EXPECT THAT HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED AT SOME POINT FOR THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME HAVE NOT ISSUED A WATCHES...WITH THE FCST TRENDS BEING WARMER...NOT FORECASTING WARNING CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IN REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN THE 5TH PERIOD. TEMP WISE...SUNDAYS HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM NEAR 20 NW TO THE LOWER 30S SE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. POTENT LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...SHOWING OVER 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER TRANSPORTED BY A 60+ KNOT 850 MB JET. THE EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS LIFTED ALONG THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THE LOW IS NEARLY CERTAIN TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION. CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN CONTINUING WELL INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW TRANSLATES SLOWLY EASTWARD. MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGEST A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO START. A STRONG SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION ON A SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW SHOULD CHANGE PRECIP TO RAIN BY AROUND NOON TUESDAY. HEAVY RAIN FALLING ON A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK IS LIKELY TO CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS THAT MAY FIRST APPEAR WHEN LOCALIZED FLOODING OCCURS IN LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS UNDERPASSES...THEN WHEN RIVER FLOODING ARISES AFTER RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT AND RAINFALL REACHES STREAMS. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED WEAK TORNADOES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR SPIN UPS EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE NEXT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL PUSH PRECIP OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 30S WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A PLUNGE BACK DOWN TO THE 20S AND 30S IS FORECAST WITH THE RETURN OF A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE REGION SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AFTER THAT...HIGH-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IF THIS OCCURS...CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE. WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AT THE MOMENT...AND WILL ONLY GET LIGHTER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...EASTERLY FLOW WILL PICK UP ON SATURDAY MORNING...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN. THIS PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO BEGIN AS SNOW...AND REDUCED AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY IN SNOW AND RAIN FROM SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN. && .CLIMATE... RECORD LOWS FOR FEB 28 CINCINNATI...1 IN 1934 COLUMBUS.....2 IN 1934 DAYTON......-3 IN 1934 && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...CONIGLIO AVIATION...HATZOS CLIMATE...

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