Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 191724 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 124 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS EAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES OR A FEW SHOWERS. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE BACK TO THE AREA THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... CAA IS CONTINUING TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO HAS BEEN PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST 925 MB FLOW...EXPECT THIS MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THROUGH LATE MORNING AND LIKELY TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A BKN CUMULUS FIELD THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WILL BUMP UP SKY COVER ACROSS THE AREA...BUT PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR NORTH. CAA WILL SLACKEN OFF AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY SO TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE END UP WITH. WILL GENERALLY RANGE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 FAR NORTHWEST TO LOW AND MID 70S FAR SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... CLEAR SKIES AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 40S...RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL. SOME WINDS WILL KEEP UP OVERNIGHT AND HAMPER RUNAWAY TEMPERATURE FALLS BEYOND THIS. THE SOUTHERN SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. NORTH FLOW IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES A HANDFUL OF DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPWARD LIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA AND COOL AIR BEING USHERED IN ON NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BRING A FEW PASSING SPRINKLES AND POSSIBLY A LIGHT SHOWER SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND MORE LIKELY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. EVEN THE HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF THIS IN KENTUCKY IS A LIGHT RAIN EVENT AT WORST WITH ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND NO REAL INDICATION OF A SHORTWAVE CONCURRENT WITH THE LOWER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN WILL KEEP A MORE UNIFORM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE BETWEEN 45 AND 50 WED NIGHT. THURSDAYS HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY BUT STILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. THURS PM LOWS WILL REMAIN COOL IN THE UPPER 40S...MORE TOWARDS 50. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. EARLY FRIDAY AND THE TAIL END OF IT WILL WASH OUT IN OHIO...POSSIBLY BRINGING A SPIT OF RAIN BUT GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IN MID LEVELS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS OHIO VALLEY IN REGION OF CONFLUENT FLOW. THIS HIGH TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION THRU THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS THRU SATURDAY. A SLOW WARM UP IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS BY SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH. FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. ON WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM SUNDAYS HIGHS LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH. MODEL SOLNS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH NEXT WEEKS SYSTEM...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE AMPLITUDE OF UPPER AIR. HAVE CONTINUED CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE NORTH CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT. WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS MONDAY FROM THE UPPER 70S NW TO THE LOWER 80S SE. && .AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SCT-BKN CU FIELD HAS BEEN SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAS ALSO BEEN ERODING ON THE LEADING EDGE AS IT ENCOUNTERS SOME DRIER AIR. THINK WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME FEW-SCT CU EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO ALL OF THE TAF SITES...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CIGS WILL REMAIN AT KDAY. THERE ARE SOME MVFR CIGS JUST OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF KDAY SO A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AT KDAY TOWARD THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. WOULD EXPECT THESE CIGS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON THOUGH...SO THINK ANY PREVAILING CIG WILL BE VFR. OTHERWISE...WITH THE CLOUD FIELD BECOMING MORE DIURNAL...EXPECT CLEARING AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...JGL

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