Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 181745 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 145 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIG ACROSS OHIO AND KENTUCKY TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA....BRINGING A CHANCE OF FROST. A DRY SUNDAY IS EXPECTED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES LINGERING. LOOKING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM CANADA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS PASSED SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...AND IS MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SEVERAL AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RADAR ECHOES ACROSS THE CWA...BUT RAIN OBSERVATIONS AT AWOS/ASOS SITES HAVE BEEN VERY ISOLATED. AS AN UPPER TROUGH ROTATES SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TODAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE...MAINLY AFTER 18Z. SLIGHT TIMING AND PLACEMENT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT STILL KEPT NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT. THIS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF TRENDS SEEN ON RECENT RAP/HRRR RUNS AND THE 12Z NAM APPEAR LIKELY TO VERIFY. THESE MODELS DEVELOP A MORE CONSOLIDATED AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...MOVING SSE INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA. THE ROTATION OF THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM DRIVING THIS FORECAST IS NOW STARTING TO COME INTO VIEW ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND WILL BE A FEATURE TO WATCH THROUGH THE DAY. A BAND OF BROKEN CLEARING HAS DEVELOPED FROM NORTHEAST INDIANA THROUGH NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER MICHIGAN SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN AS MORE CLOUDS ADVECT FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THERE ARE INDICATIONS ON THE RAP THAT MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM FROM LOWER MICHIGAN MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS ENHANCED THAN MOISTURE IN AREAS WITH A FETCH MORE DIRECTLY OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS STILL IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS AND CURRENT CONDITIONS...SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION > A FEW LIGHT ECHOS ARE DROPPING THE ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE ARE PROBABLY NO MORE THAN SPRINKLES ATTM. A SHARP S/W TROF WILL SWING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE FA TODAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THUS SO WILL PCPN CHANCES. OVERALL THE BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES...BUT CANT RULE OUT A SHOWER ANYWHERE. EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL TODAY...LIMITING HIGHS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTH AND THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... BY 00Z THIS EVENING THE S/W TROF HAS SWUNG E OF THE FA...TO NEAR THE OH/WV BORDER. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROF SHOULD ALLOW FOR QUICK CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT SC OFF OF LAKES MICHIGAN AND ERIE IS POSSIBLE...BUT EXPECT IT TO STAY NORTH OF THE AREA. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SFC...WINDS WILL LIGHTEN. COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NW 2/3RD OF THE FA TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. FROST SHOULD DEVELOP IN THIS REGIME...SO WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY NORTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT CVG-ILN-LHQ. EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WITH SFC HIGH OVER THE REGION. NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BRING SOME CI. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO WARM DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...LEAVING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP PCPN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE N/W HALF OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT. A CDFNT WILL ADVANCE ON THE REGION MONDAY HELPING TO FOCUS THE LIFT. KEPT A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL UPR PATTERN AND THE ASSOC SFC FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH SOME CHANGES IN BOTH MODELS FROM YESTERDAY INCLUDE A DEEPER UPR LEVEL LOW AND THEREFOR SLOWER TO DEPART THE REGION PRIOR TO THE DEEP RIDGING DOMINATING THE CENTRAL/WESTERN CONUS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED. HAVE LINGERED SHOWERS NOW THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY IN THE EAST AS THE UPR LOW CONTINUES TO BECOME DEEPER WITH EACH MODEL RUN AND WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST WELL INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS UPWARD IN THE TUE NIGHT/WED NIGHT TIMEFRAME ACCORDINGLY WITH THE DELAY IN POST FRONTAL CLEARING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR UPDATES IN TEMPS/PRECIP/CLOUDS IN THE EAST IF THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOW/DEEPEN. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... CEILINGS OVER THE REGION HAVE BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 2000-4000 FEET...BUT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A SWITCH TO PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD BE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS THIS IS HAPPENING...AN AREA OF RAIN OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE TAF SITES. AS THIS RAIN NOW APPEARS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AIRPORTS...PREVAILING SHOWERS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. VISIBILITIES IN THE RAIN HAVE GENERALLY BEEN VFR...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY GUSTY...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THEY TURN TO THE WEST. AFTER THE RAIN MOVES OUT...CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE TO DROP AS NIGHT FALLS...THOUGH GENERALLY NO LOWER THAN 1500 FEET. ONE CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST IS DETERMINING WHEN THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE. THE NEW TAFS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC...KEEPING CEILINGS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS SOMEWHAT OF A CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS COULD LAST INTO THE MORNING. HOWEVER...ONCE CLEARING OCCURS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY. .OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ026-034- 035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>072-077-080. KY...NONE. IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ050-058- 059-066-073-074. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BINAU/SITES NEAR TERM...HATZOS/SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...JDR AVIATION...HATZOS

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