Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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933 FXUS61 KILN 280814 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 414 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure off the East Coast will result in warm and humid conditions with a chance of showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. A weak cold front will move through Sunday night. High pressure will build in Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Persistent showers that have been moving across central Kentucky should eventually expand into eastern Indiana and western Ohio this morning. Sheared short wave over the lower Mississippi Valley will move north northeast across the region later in the day. This will help trigger scattered convection during the afternoon. Forecast highs stayed close to a MOS blend.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Convection may linger into the evening in eastern counties before diminishing. Tail end of a trough swinging across the Great Lakes later Sunday may brush by the forecast area. This will also push a weak cold front across the region Sunday night. This may result some showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into the night. High pressure will build in Monday with a drier airmass. Did not stray too far from MOS for temperatures except for going a bit cooler on Monday.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure over the region at the beginning of the period will slowly move east but continue to influence the area possibly into Wednesday. Long wave trough will move out of the Plains on Thursday and head into the region on Friday. This will cause a cold front to cross the area late Thursday into Thursday night. There will be enough of a return of moisture ahead of the boundary that showers and thunderstorms will occur along and ahead of the front. Temperatures will remain a bit above normal until Friday when readings will fall back closer to climatology.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A few showers are situated southwest of the TAF sites this morning. They will be slow moving and do not expect them to make it into the TAF sites overnight. Even with some of the cloud cover VSBYS at KLUK have started to drop. Expect river valley fog to continue to develop overnight however do not expect it to be as extensive as last night due to more cloud cover. Scattered light shower activity will work into the TAF sites during the daytime morning hours and into the early afternoon hours. There is some instability across primarily the eastern TAF sites this afternoon and therefore have a VCTS mention in at KILN...KCMH...and KLCK. Shower and thunderstorm activity will begin to dissipate this evening leaving mostly just some mid and high clouds around the area. OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms will be possible again on Sunday. There will also be a chance of showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...Novak

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