Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 242347 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 647 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system will track into the Great Lakes tonight while its associated cold front sweeps east across the Ohio Valley. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected as the cold front moves through. High pressure will gradually build back into the region late Saturday night into Sunday. More seasonable temperatures will spread into the area for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Severe Thunderstorm Watch #38 is in effect for entire CWA until 07Z or 2 am EST. Previous discussion below is still valid. For tonight, focus remains on the potential for severe weather across the region as low pressure tracks toward Lake Huron while its attendant cold front sweeps east across the region. Convection to our west over Indiana still remains somewhat elevated. In addition, the airmass over our area is still slightly capped and somewhat mixed out in the low levels, which has lowered boundary layer moisture some from projected forecasts. With dynamic energy rounding the base of a large scale trough, and with large scale ascent taking place this evening, cap should erode, allowing thunderstorms to develop and move into our western zones. High resolution models continue to indicate that these storms may eventually merge amongst themselves while the cold front and any convection along its boundary catches up. Potential still exists for some rotating storms which will pose large hail and damaging winds. Tornado threat is still there but will depend largely how much the boundary layer remains linked to the atmosphere above into the evening hours. Severe threat will then tend toward more of a damaging wind threat as the convection tries to form a qlcs structure across our eastern zones. In any case, thunderstorms are expected to exit our far east between 1 am EST and 4 am EST. A dry slot (i.e. sinking air and lack of deep moisture) is still expected late tonight in the wake of frontal passage. Lows will be set by morning as CAA takes place and continues into Saturday. They should range from the mid 30s west to the upper 40s east.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Parent large scale mid level trough is expected to pass across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Saturday. CAA will result in slowly falling temperatures through the day. A few instability rain/and or snow showers may occur, but should end by Saturday evening. It will be brisk, but winds do not look as gusty as previously forecast. Gusts should be more in the 30 to 35 mph range. For Saturday night, mid level trough will exit to the east. Surface high pressure will gradually build into the Ohio Valley late. CAA stratocumulus will linger through at least early morning, with clearing expected from southwest to northwest late. Lows will fall into the lower to mid 20s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Period will begin with high pressure centered just to the south of the fa in se KY. Skies will be mostly sunny, but temperatures will be seasonal with highs in the lower to mid 40s. Model continue with their differences for Sunday night into Monday with how quickly pcpn returns on the backside of the high. The GFS is slowed down it`s pcpn from yesterday and is concentrating across southern sections. The CMC hemispheric and NAM are showing similar solutions, while the ECMWF remains dry. Trended the forecast towards the consensus solution. Temps and thicknesses are low enuf that the pcpn should fall as a rain snow mix. This first shot of pcpn slips e on Monday, before a more substantial area of pcpn lifts up into the region during the later half of Monday night. A warm front lifting through the region will keep temperatures warm enough for all rain. The best rain chances on Tuesday will be in the morning. Well above normal temperatures will return as highs will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Pcpn chance taper down during Tuesday aftn, then a cold front will swing through the region on Wednesday. Showers and possibly a thunderstorms (around the Ohio River) will develop Tuesday night and will last into Wednesday until fropa. Highs on Wednesday will probably be early with falling temperatures in the afternoon. Northwest flow develops for the end of the week, which should bring back more seasonable temperatures. In the fast flow, the models are having timing difference with embedded vort maxs. Ran a blend of the solutions to have chance PoPs during the time frame. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop and move east into our region this evening. This initial convection is located in a prefrontal trough ahead of a cold front that is expected to sweep east across the terminals overnight. At some point, the front may catch up to this convection, eventually congealing into a more linear north/south structure. In any case, all terminals have the threat for thunderstorms in the forecast until cold frontal passage. Mainly MVFR conditions can be expected. However, local IFR visibilities will be possible in the stronger cores, along with gusty winds. Should these lower conditions threaten within 5 statue miles of the terminal, an amendment will be make. Predominate ceilings should remain in the VFR range in the dry slot behind frontal passage until Saturday morning. Winds will shift to the west and will become gusty to 25 knots. On Saturday, parent upper level trough will move east across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. MVFR post frontal stratocumulus can be expected. Ceilings will lower to MVFR at first before rising back above VFR late in the day. A few rain and/or snow showers will be possible, mainly near the northern terminals as some post frontal instability will be in place. High pressure will gradually build into the Ohio Valley Saturday night. Stratocumulus deck will eventually erode and shift east/northeast as cold pool of air moves away. Winds will also decrease Saturday evening. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Monday, Tuesday night, and Wednesday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...Hickman SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...Sites AVIATION...Hickman

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