Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 162335 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 735 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered to the east will continue to extend into the Ohio Valley through tomorrow. A weak cold front will move into northwest Ohio and eastern Indiana on Monday and then stall. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Cumulus across the region will dissipate with the loss of heating. Some fog may develop overnight, particularly in the river valleys. With dew points a few degrees higher than a day ago, have generally forecast lows slightly warmer than this morning. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Weak pressure gradient will persist with surface high to the east gradually losing its influence. Cannot rule out an isolated shower on Sunday, but for the most part it will remain dry. A cold front will approach from the west on Sunday night. This will bring a slightly better chance of showers in northwest counties late. The slow warming trend will continue. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Shortwave trough will be located over the Upper Midwest to begin the week, while an upper ridge across the Southern States noses up into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and Jose continues to move over the western Atlantic. The ridge will bring a continuation of warm conditions across the CWA, with maxima in the lower to mid 80s on Monday. Models indicate that a weak cold front will push into northwest Ohio/eastern Indiana for Monday, which combined with marginal instability will provide the chance for a few showers and thunderstorms by afternoon. Due to the ridge, the boundary likely stalls out and then becomes more diffuse through the middle of the week. Models show heights lowering a little as there may be weak shortwave energy skirting by to the north. Still can`t rule out a low chance of diurnally-driven convection Tuesday/Wednesday mainly across the western portion of the CWA, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s and low temperatures in the lower to mid 60s. The upper ridge looks to strengthen toward the end of the week, therefore favored a dry forecast for Thursday/Friday with continued above normal temperatures in what will feel like a very summer-like pattern. Diurnal convection could become possible again by Saturday but confidence is low and at this point it does not appear there will be anything to force organized convection. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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The cu may linger a bit longer across our east but it should continue to dissipate as we head through mid evening. With mainly clear skies overnight, expect to see some fog development again, especially in the river valleys. Will allow for some MVFR to IFR vsby restrictions at the more favored locations of KLUK, KILN and KLCK. Any fog will dissipate through mid morning with sct cu expected through the day on Sunday. OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected at this time.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...BPP AVIATION...JGL

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