Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KILN 020845
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
345 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016
Flow around a large low pressure system to the northeast will keep
cool and mainly cloudy conditions across the region today. High
pressure will gradually build into the area on Saturday. The high
will move east on Sunday while a weak upper level disturbance
moves to the Great Lakes.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Center of mid level low over southeast Canada will rotate east
today. An embedded disturbance rotating on the back side of this
system will push southeast into the lower Great Lakes. This
feature should be far enough removed from our region to keep any
spotty light precipitation just off to our north. Otherwise,
an expansive CAA induced stratocumulus deck will persist. Highs
will range from the upper 30s to the lower 40s.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Mid level low to our northeast will rotate out to sea on Saturday
while a mid level ridge moves east into the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley. The mid level ridge will be accompanied by surface high
pressure. There are some indications that pesky stratocumulus will
try to erode late tonight into Saturday morning. But more often
than not, low clouds tend to hold on longer than expected. In either
case, considerable high level clouds, then mid level clouds will
be pushing through the relatively low amplitude mid level ridge.
So, there could be a few peaks of sun on Saturday, but clouds
should predominate. Highs on Saturday will again range from the
upper 30s to the lower 40s.
Operational models are in fairly decent agreement in terms of the
next weather system to affect our region on Sunday. Surface high
pressure will move east by Sunday. As this occurs, a fast moving
s/wv will push east into the Great Lakes. Overall forcing with
this system will be weak. Some isentropic lift will occur with it,
spreading light precipitation into our southwest/western zones
during the first part of Sunday. Model soundings indicate a dry
sub cloud layer at first, so some of this may go into saturating
the atmosphere before any precipitation reaches the ground.
Depending on how fast precipitation reaches the ground will
determine if a a little snow will mix in before it becomes warm
enough for mostly light rain for all locations by mid afternoon.
This system will be fast moving, and by Sunday night, precipitation
will be quickly exiting to the east. Again, mainly rain is
expected, except for the far northern zones where a little snow
may mix in before ending.
Temperatures on Sunday will be in the upper 30s to the lower 40s.
Lows by Monday morning will bottom out mainly in the lower 30s.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A brief lull in the precipitation will occur through the daytime
hours on Monday. The next system will move up from the south
Monday night through Tuesday. Precipitation will generally be in
the form of rain with this system as warmer air in drawn in from
Another system will move through Wednesday night into Thursday. GFS
is not as pronounced with the precipitation with this system. Went
closer to the ECMWF solution. After the frontal passage on Thursday,
much colder air will work into the region. Some light snow will be
possible then on Thursday.
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR ceilings will be the main impact for the TAF sites over the
next 12 hours or so. A fairly solid deck of clouds at around
2000-2500 feet has developed, and will continue to hang over the
TAF sites overnight. MVFR ceilings are already occurring at
KDAY/KILN and will move into KCMH/KLCK over the next one or two
hours. KCVG/KLUK are currently on the edge of these clouds, but
MVFR ceilings are likely to begin fairly soon as well. It is
unlikely that the cloud heights will lift much until a few hours
after sunrise, and the TAFS will indicate prevailing VFR
conditions by late morning.
Westerly winds will remain in place at around 8-10 knots
overnight, and will increase slightly on Friday, with some gusts
to around 20 knots possible.
There is a very small chance of some flurries on Friday afternoon
at KDAY/KCMH/KLCK but with no expected impact to aviation
conditions. This will not be included in the forecast.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible Friday night into Saturday
morning. MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible on Sunday,
and again on Monday night into Tuesday.