Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 140841 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 441 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE INTO REGION TODAY. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THESE FEATURES PUSH INTO THE AREA.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE INTO THE REGION TODAY. CAA ALOFT AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CREATE GOOD CONDITIONS FOR CU DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD GO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP DOWN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR. BY SUNRISE SATURDAY SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MIGHT SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE AREA. ON SATURDAY...THE HIGH RETREATS E INTO THE APPALACHIANS. AN H5 S/W IN THE NORTHWEST PUSHES A SFC LOW TOWARDS THE REGION. THE 00Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER N WITH THE LOW AND BAND OF PRECIPITATION. WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS N OF I-70....BUT TAPERED THE POPS DOWN TO A SLIGHT CHC ACROSS NRN KY. SURFACE WAVE WILL DEPART THE AREA TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AND WILL LEAVE BEHIND A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. KEPT A CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TOP DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S IN THE FAR NE TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE FAR WEST. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. PERIODIC DISTURBANCES MAY PASS WEST TO EAST IN ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND WOULD TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THIS TIME. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL LEAVE US IN A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME AS THEY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...AND THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES WILL DETERMINE THOSE FACTORS. WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS. BY MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE FORECASTING AN UPPER TROUGH TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING JUST TO ITS EAST. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA... RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NORTH WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL CREATE A CU FIELD AROUND 4KFT THIS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SITES NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...LATTO AVIATION...FRANKS

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