Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 121014 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 514 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will move into the area today with an area of low pressure moving across the region. An upper level disturbance will keep precipitation in area into the night. These features will allow for a transition from rain to freezing rain, sleet, and then snow.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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The cold front has already started to work into the region and will continue to move through this morning. Winds will pick up with the passage of this feature and remain gusty through the day. Temperatures will drop very quickly with the passage of the cold front from the 50s down to the 30s. Rain will transition to a mix of freezing rain and sleet and then to all snow. This transition time will be very important for the amount of snow that any one particular location will see. In general expect around a tenth of an inch or less of ice accumulation. Greatest snow accumulation will hold off until later this afternoon and moreso into later this evening into tonight as an upper level disturbance moves through. Expect there to be an axis of heavier snow that develops in an area where the sounding profile is cold enough for all snow, but still having the higher qpf values. Decided to upgrade a corridor of counties with the lower 4 inch criteria where confidence was higher.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
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Remaining mixed precipitation will transition over to all snow this evening. Storm total snow values are expected to range from around 1 1/2 to 5 inches across the region. Most of the snow will taper off late tonight, however some lingering light lake effect snow showers will be possible on Saturday. Winds will be gusty this evening and through the overnight hours. Additional lower wind gusts will be possible during the day on Saturday. Wind chill values in some cases will drop down below zero tonight into Saturday morning. Will mention across portions of the area in the HWO. Temperatures will struggle to rise with CAA on Saturday.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure will build across the area early in the period. Arctic air along with a fresh snow pack will result in rather cold temperatures. The high will move off to the east Sunday night and a clipper will swing across the region Monday into Monday evening. Snow will occur ahead of this system with light accumulations likely. Very cold conditions will ensue. Wind chill could approach advisory threshold Monday night into Tuesday. The air mass may modify enough to allow some rebound in temperatures by Thursday.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Although current observations show the TAF sites as VFR there are highly variable cigs around the area and therefore there is the possibility for lower cigs near the start of the TAFs especially near KCMH and KLCK where VFR cigs are right next to LIFR cigs. Handled this with a tempo group. Lower cigs will gradually work into the region overnight as the frontal boundary approaches. Precipitation will start out as rain and as colder air works into the region switch to freezing rain, sleet, and then finally to snow. The better snow will be Friday evening as an upper level disturbance approaches and moves through the region and the sounding profile gets more saturated in the cold air. It may take awhile during the day on Friday for sleet or snow with the column not overly cold initially. Could see some mix however mix in during the day with heavier pockets of precipitation. Reduced visibilities are expected with the precipitation. With the frontal passage winds will increase quite a bit and become gusty. The stronger winds will be near the end of the TAf period as there will be stronger low level winds and better CAA. OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities are likely to continue through Friday night into Saturday morning. MVFR conditions are possible on Monday along with a chance of snow. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for OHZ026- 034-035-042>044-051-060. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EST Saturday for OHZ045-046-052>056-061-062-070-071-077-078. Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Saturday for OHZ079-081-088. Winter Storm Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Saturday for OHZ063>065-072>074-080-082. KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EST Saturday for KYZ089>096. Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Saturday for KYZ097>100. IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for INZ050- 058-059-066-073. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EST Saturday for INZ074-075-080.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM... AVIATION...Novak

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