Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KILN 221816
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
216 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016
An upper level ridge positioned over the nations mid section will
continue to dominate the weather over the weekend before finally
breaking down at the beginning of next week. this ridge will offer
hot and humid weather conditions. The combination of heat and
humidity will create heat index values above 100 degrees. This
will result in period of storms to form through the weekend due to
the high levels of moisture. The chance for precipitation increases
early next week with the expected passage of a cold front.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --A disorganized cluster of showers and embedded thunderstorms will
continue to drift southeast across southern Ohio and northern
Kentucky through the afternoon hours. In the wake of this
convection, the environment has stabilized. While some rebound is
possible, do not expect much in the way of additional development
for the late afternoon and evening hours.
The ongoing convection across central, west-central, and southern Ohio
has resulted in a large variance of temperatures across the FA.
Where appreciable rain has fallen, temperatures may only rebound
into the mid to upper 80s late this afternoon into the evening,
even with sufficient clearing. Therefore, many locations may not
meet heat advisory or excessive heat warning criteria during the
day today. Nevertheless, extremely humid air will remain in place,
with dew points in the mid to upper 70s possible, which will still
create uncomfortable conditions this afternoon. As such, have not
made any changes to the existing heat headlines at this time.
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.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Possible ongoing MCS to start the evening expected to drop south-
southeast across ILN/s FA and weaken this evening. Remainder of
the night should be mainly dry but can not rule out stray pcpn.
Warm and humid conditions to continue with lows in the lower and
Difficult to pin point timing and placement of convection Saturday
and sunday. Have a mention of 40 percent both aftns with the best
threat across the north closer to warm front. Heat continues with
highs in the lower 90s on both Saturday and Sunday. Given high
dewpoints...heat indices above 100 likely Saturday afternoon and
possibly again Sunday. For now...have continue heat headlines for
Saturday but these headlines may have to be extended into Sunday.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
On Monday an upper level low will swing east across the Hudson
Bay bringing a weak front across the area. Surface convergence is
weak along the front and timing between the GFS and ECMWF is
slightly out of phase. The ECMWF is slightly faster than the GFS
with the GFS bringing the front through Tuesday morning. The ECMWF
bring the front through Monday evening. Have leaned towards the
Behind the front much drier air will filter in with PWATs less than
1.00". This will help to bring a temporary end in the precip until
Thursday. At the end of extended Thursday another shortwave will
approach the area bringing the chance of rain back to the area.
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cluster of -SHRA/TS across central and south-central Ohio will
continue to shift SE thru aft/early eve. TSRA has cleared KDAY and
KCMH... and will shift SE of KLCK and KILN within next hour or so.
Environment in wake of activity has been worked over, and although
some rebound is possible, do not expect redevelopment of TS at
this time. Further to the SW, for KCVG and KLUK, some TS
development is possible thru the aft, but CAMs and current
convective trends do not offer confidence on timing or coverage of
potential development. Nevertheless, expect that main TS coverage
should shift SE of KCVG and KLUK by late afternoon.
VFR conditions are expected to continue through the evening hours
before BR develops after 06z. With light/calm winds and clearing
skies and a very moist environment, BR will likely create
MVFR/IFR VSBY restrictions toward sunrise Saturday. VSBY
restrictions may end up being greatest in areas that received
appreciable rainfall during the day today, but nevertheless,
expect that at least TEMPO IFR VSBYs will develop for all
terminals. There exists the possibility that LIFR VSBYs may
develop, but timing and location remain unclear at this time.
During the afternoon Saturday, there is a chance of SHRA/TS
development across the region, but model uncertainty precludes
inclusion at this time. Expect light southwesterly winds during
the day on Saturday.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday through Monday.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ026-034-035-
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ061-077.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for KYZ089>100.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for INZ050-058-059-066-