Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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210 FXUS61 KILN 111103 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 603 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN PLACES WHERE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED THIS MORNING WITH WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE. WIND CHILLS WILL THEN RISE ABOVE ZERO BY MID MORNING. HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS. SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY (ESP TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST) AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A THIN LAYER OF SATURATION. THERE ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD BE SUN TODAY WITH A WEAK STRATO CU FIELD POSSIBLE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD WITH GFS/EURO AND NAM ALL FORECASTING 850 TEMPS OF -18 DEGREES C THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUT HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND 20 DEGREES TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR WEAKENING WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUD SKIES. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES SOUTH NEAR THE HUDSON BAY FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO HEAD SOUTHEAST AROUND THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW TOWARDS THE TRI-STATE PUSHING WEAK PVA OVER THE AREA. THE NAM SHOWED SOME LIGHT QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM YESTERDAY WHILE THE GFS AND EURO WHERE DRY. THE EURO AND GFS ARE NOW SHOWING QPF LIKE THE NAM SOLUTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THE GFS ALSO LOOK BETTER THIS MORNING SHOWING SATURATION UP TO AROUND 400 MB THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. PWATS ARE ALSO FORECASTED TO BE AROUND 0.30" VIA THE NAM AND GFS. THE NAM IS A TAD FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST WITH THE SYSTEM. HAVE RAISED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH ALL SNOW FORECASTED FOR THIS SYSTEM. AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIP SOUTH PUSHING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR WIND CHILLS OF -5 TO -15 DEGREES F. WIND CHILLS OF -10 OR COLDER WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THESE VALUES WOULD SUPPORT A WIND CHILL ADVISORY. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND -22 DEGREES C. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TEENS FOR SATURDAY. SUNDAY MORNING WILL AGAIN BE COLD WITH SOME SPOTS POSSIBLY DIPPING BELOW ZERO (ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES). CLOUDS WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THOUGH WHICH COULD INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AREA WILL BE UNDER A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS IN A SHALLOW LAYER OF DECREASING MOISTURE. FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE ILN AREA. A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THOUGH THERE WILL BE WARM ADVECTION...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY...SOME RESIDUAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD AFFECT MAINLY EASTERN COUNTIES. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT VERY COLD SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS. SLIGHT MODERATION TO THE LOW 20S IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BRING READINGS INTO THE 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGHS MAY REACH THE NEAR NORMAL 40 ON WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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SOME VFR LAKE INDUCED SC CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO DRIFT DOWN ACROSS PARTS OF OUR NORTHERN AREA...WHILE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS TREND THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME SCT-BKN MVFR SC DEVELOPMENT AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW FLURRIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT EXPECT ANY IMPACT ON THE TAF SITES TO BE MINIMAL. THE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE AWAY HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO BACK. THIS IS AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS TOWARD THE END OF THE KCVG TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAINES NEAR TERM...HAINES SHORT TERM...HAINES LONG TERM...CONIGLIO AVIATION...JGL

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