Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 292111 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 411 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. IN DEVELOPING CAA BEHIND THE FRONT...LOWER STRATUS IS OVERSPREADING OUR AREA ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE KEEPING US NEARLY SATURATED BELOW 2 KM THROUGH 00Z BEFORE PARTIALLY DRYING OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER REMAINS RIGHT AROUND -10 CELSIUS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY EVENING SO THINK WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A MIX OF DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING. WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AND WE COULD EVEN END UP WITH A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WE START TO GET INTO A FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AS A SECONDARY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE AREA. THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER OFF THE NAM IS INDICATING SOME INCREASING INSTABILITY WORKING DOWN NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE 06 TO 12Z TIME FRAME AND THIS COINCIDES WITH A FAVORABLE PV ANOMALY. AS A RESULT...THINK WE WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY RUNNING FROM OUR NORTHWEST THROUGH OUR SOUTHEAST. WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. GOOD CAA WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A RISE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 20 IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 30 IN THE SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. AS WE GET INTO SOME RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL BUMP UP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR HIGHS. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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FOCUS IN THE IMMEDIATE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY...THEN EAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL BRING CATEGORICAL POPS TO THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SNOW NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WITH SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AS TEMPERATURES CREEP ABOVE FREEZING HERE. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A DECENT SNOW PRODUCER...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT STAYS ALL SNOW. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH IN LATER FORECAST MODEL RUNS WHETHER THE LOW BECOMES STRONGER...MOVES FARTHER NORTH...OR MAINTAINS A MORE EAST TO WEST TRACK. THIS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE MAY MOVE WHICH WILL CUT INTO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. IN EITHER CASE...ONCE COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION. BASED ON CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A 6"+ SNOWFALL EVENT NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH (4 INCHES OR LESS AS A FIRST FORECAST AMOUNT). PCPN WILL BE TAPERING OFF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS WINTER WEATHER THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT. FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM THAT MUCH FROM MONDAY MORNING LOWS...RANGING FROM THE LOWER TEENS NORTH TO NEAR 20 SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP MONDAY NIGHT AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY...FOLLOWED BY SOME INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS WILL GO BELOW ZERO WITH SINGLE DIGITS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SOME WIND CHILL VALUES WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE 10 BELOW TO 20 BELOW ZERO RANGE IN THE COLDEST AIR. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS EXCEPT FOR TUESDAY WHERE THE GFS TRIES TO SPREAD ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN PCPN INTO THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH THE DRY ECMWF SOLUTION. ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY MID WEEK. SOME WARMING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO COLD VALUES BEHIND IT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BY THURSDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MID LEVEL S/W TROF TO MOVE THRU THE GREAT LAKES TODAY/TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER LOWER MI TO LIFT NE WITH SOUTHWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT OVER INDIANA SWEEPING EAST THRU THE TAF SITES THIS AFTN. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE PSBL. DUE TO LACK OF WIDESPREAD COVERAGE HAVE LIMITED MENTION TO VCSH. HAVE CIGS DROP TO IFR FOR A PERIOD LATE THIS AFTN AT KDAY. EXPECT MVFR CIGS THRU THE NIGHT WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE WESTERN TAF SITES BUT DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE HAVE OMITTED THE MENTION AT THIS TIME. CIGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY FRIDAY AFTN AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 28KTS AND VEER TO THE WEST THIS AFTN. THESE WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 24 KTS AND VEER NW TONIGHT. OUTLOOK...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...AR

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