Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 221816 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 216 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level ridge positioned over the nations mid section will continue to dominate the weather over the weekend before finally breaking down at the beginning of next week. this ridge will offer hot and humid weather conditions. The combination of heat and humidity will create heat index values above 100 degrees. This will result in period of storms to form through the weekend due to the high levels of moisture. The chance for precipitation increases early next week with the expected passage of a cold front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A disorganized cluster of showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to drift southeast across southern Ohio and northern Kentucky through the afternoon hours. In the wake of this convection, the environment has stabilized. While some rebound is possible, do not expect much in the way of additional development for the late afternoon and evening hours. The ongoing convection across central, west-central, and southern Ohio has resulted in a large variance of temperatures across the FA. Where appreciable rain has fallen, temperatures may only rebound into the mid to upper 80s late this afternoon into the evening, even with sufficient clearing. Therefore, many locations may not meet heat advisory or excessive heat warning criteria during the day today. Nevertheless, extremely humid air will remain in place, with dew points in the mid to upper 70s possible, which will still create uncomfortable conditions this afternoon. As such, have not made any changes to the existing heat headlines at this time.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Possible ongoing MCS to start the evening expected to drop south- southeast across ILN/s FA and weaken this evening. Remainder of the night should be mainly dry but can not rule out stray pcpn. Warm and humid conditions to continue with lows in the lower and middle 70s. Difficult to pin point timing and placement of convection Saturday and sunday. Have a mention of 40 percent both aftns with the best threat across the north closer to warm front. Heat continues with highs in the lower 90s on both Saturday and Sunday. Given high dewpoints...heat indices above 100 likely Saturday afternoon and possibly again Sunday. For now...have continue heat headlines for Saturday but these headlines may have to be extended into Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... On Monday an upper level low will swing east across the Hudson Bay bringing a weak front across the area. Surface convergence is weak along the front and timing between the GFS and ECMWF is slightly out of phase. The ECMWF is slightly faster than the GFS with the GFS bringing the front through Tuesday morning. The ECMWF bring the front through Monday evening. Have leaned towards the ECMWF here. Behind the front much drier air will filter in with PWATs less than 1.00". This will help to bring a temporary end in the precip until Thursday. At the end of extended Thursday another shortwave will approach the area bringing the chance of rain back to the area. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Cluster of -SHRA/TS across central and south-central Ohio will continue to shift SE thru aft/early eve. TSRA has cleared KDAY and KCMH... and will shift SE of KLCK and KILN within next hour or so. Environment in wake of activity has been worked over, and although some rebound is possible, do not expect redevelopment of TS at this time. Further to the SW, for KCVG and KLUK, some TS development is possible thru the aft, but CAMs and current convective trends do not offer confidence on timing or coverage of potential development. Nevertheless, expect that main TS coverage should shift SE of KCVG and KLUK by late afternoon. VFR conditions are expected to continue through the evening hours before BR develops after 06z. With light/calm winds and clearing skies and a very moist environment, BR will likely create MVFR/IFR VSBY restrictions toward sunrise Saturday. VSBY restrictions may end up being greatest in areas that received appreciable rainfall during the day today, but nevertheless, expect that at least TEMPO IFR VSBYs will develop for all terminals. There exists the possibility that LIFR VSBYs may develop, but timing and location remain unclear at this time. During the afternoon Saturday, there is a chance of SHRA/TS development across the region, but model uncertainty precludes inclusion at this time. Expect light southwesterly winds during the day on Saturday. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday through Monday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051>056-060-062>065-070>074-078>082-088. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ061-077. KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for KYZ089>100. IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for INZ050-058-059-066- 073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...KC SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Haines AVIATION...KC

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