Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 162058 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 458 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013 .SYNOPSIS...
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A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAD CONGEALED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY AS THEY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST. THERE HAS BEEN DESTABILIZATION NORTH OF THAT AREA AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED. INITIAL UPDRAFTS WERE STRONG BUT SHORT LIVED. INSTEAD REPEATED HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE MORE OF A THREAT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. ONCE THIS OCCURS EXPECT LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS REDEVELOPING LATER NEAR A RESULTANT BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY. IF CLOUDS BREAK LATER TONIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME FOG WHERE HEAVIER RAIN HAS FALLEN TODAY. USED A MOS BLEND FOR FORECAST LOWS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED AND LIFT NORTH A LITTLE DURING THE DAY. SHOULD SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. AGAIN THERE WILL BE LITTLE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT. SO THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PRIMARILY BE DIURNAL WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY START TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS A STACKED LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. MOS SEEMED REASONABLE FOR HIGHS BUT WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER AROUND THE FA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FA ON MONDAY HOWEVER BELIEVE THAT THE COVERAGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LOW AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A SLIGHT CHANCE. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL HAVE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PUSHING SLOWLY EAST...ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THE OVERALL AREA HAS BEEN SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTH SO THINK THE MAIN AFFECT THEY WILL HAVE ON KCVG/KLUK WILL BE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WE ARE ALSO STARTING TO SEE SOME SPOTTY REDEVELOPMENT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH IN AREA OF BETTER CLEARING BETWEEN KCVG/KDAY. IF THIS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP...IT COULD EVENTUALLY POSE A THUNDER THREAT TO SOME OF THE MORE NORTHERN TAF SITES...BUT WILL JUST COVER WITH A VCSH AT THIS POINT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WEAKENING/SHIFTING THE PCPN OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. INSTABILITIES ARE PROGGED TO DROP OFF OVERNIGHT AND WITH AN OVERALL LACK OF FORCING...WILL KEEP THE TAFS DRY. DEPENDING ON HOW MANY BREAKS WE SEE OVERNIGHT...WE COULD END UP WITH SOME BR VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATER TONIGHT. THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE AREA OF BETTER RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND AS WE DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...JGL

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