-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 162058
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
458 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAD CONGEALED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
BEEN WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY AS THEY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST. THERE HAS BEEN DESTABILIZATION NORTH OF THAT AREA AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED. INITIAL UPDRAFTS WERE STRONG BUT
SHORT LIVED. INSTEAD REPEATED HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE MORE OF A
THREAT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. ONCE THIS OCCURS EXPECT LITTLE
OR NO PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS REDEVELOPING LATER NEAR A
RESULTANT BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY. IF CLOUDS BREAK LATER
TONIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME FOG WHERE HEAVIER RAIN HAS FALLEN
TODAY. USED A MOS BLEND FOR FORECAST LOWS.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED AND LIFT NORTH A LITTLE DURING THE DAY. SHOULD SEE
CONVECTION DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. AGAIN THERE WILL BE LITTLE LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT. SO THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PRIMARILY BE DIURNAL WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SOME MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY START TO
SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS A
STACKED LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. MOS SEEMED REASONABLE FOR HIGHS
BUT WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER AROUND THE FA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FA ON MONDAY HOWEVER BELIEVE THAT THE COVERAGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LOW AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE.  ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION.  MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL HAVE THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PUSHING SLOWLY
EAST...ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THE OVERALL AREA HAS
BEEN SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTH SO THINK THE MAIN AFFECT THEY WILL HAVE
ON KCVG/KLUK WILL BE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WE ARE ALSO STARTING
TO SEE SOME SPOTTY REDEVELOPMENT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH IN AREA OF
BETTER CLEARING BETWEEN KCVG/KDAY. IF THIS CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP...IT COULD EVENTUALLY POSE A THUNDER THREAT TO SOME OF THE
MORE NORTHERN TAF SITES...BUT WILL JUST COVER WITH A VCSH AT THIS
POINT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WEAKENING/SHIFTING THE PCPN OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. INSTABILITIES ARE PROGGED TO DROP OFF OVERNIGHT AND WITH
AN OVERALL LACK OF FORCING...WILL KEEP THE TAFS DRY. DEPENDING ON
HOW MANY BREAKS WE SEE OVERNIGHT...WE COULD END UP WITH SOME BR
VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATER TONIGHT. THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE AREA OF BETTER RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND AS WE DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL