Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 231631 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1231 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
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CLOUD COVER IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AND THE LINGERING OVERCAST DECK IN SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO WILL SEE EROSION FROM ALL SIDES WITH THE REGION SEEING SUNNY SKIES PRACTICALLY EVERYWHERE BY MID AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND THE EARLY CLOUD COVER...DID NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGHS TODAY AS LOW TO MID 60S SHOULD WORK OUT NICELY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THUS HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE TONIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME FROST ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. HAVE KEPT IT PATCHY FOR NOW. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY...ESTABLISHING SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL BRING WARMER READINGS ONCE AGAIN. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG AN EAST-WEST FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAKE IT INTO FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY LATER MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY LARGE DIURNAL RANGES IN A MOSTLY DRY AIR MASS. HAVE OPENED THIS RANGE A BIT MORE BY GOING SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR LOWS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN EAST-WEST FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. 00Z GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS SLOWER SOLUTIONS. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH WITH NOT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT...HAVE JUST STAYED WITH MID-RANGE POPS. THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. BUT IT WILL BE IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. AS A WEAKENING UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARDS MID WEEK...A CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL LIFT THE FRONT BACK NORTH WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AGAIN FOR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST AND RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP IN THE OHIO VALLEY FOR SUNDAY. BKN MVFR CLOUD DECK IN CENTRAL OHIO WILL ONLY LAST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO IN FAVOR OF CLEAR SKIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND TURN EASTERLY THIS EVENING AND SOME CI CLOUDS WILL SPILL IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...FRANKS

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