Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 250803 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 403 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A southerly flow ahead of low pressure will provide warm temperatures and mainly dry weather today. Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop tonight through Sunday when the low is forecast to travel to the Western Great Lakes. Weak high pressure Sunday night into Monday will be followed by low pressure and more showers late Monday into Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A vertically stacked low pressure system will move slowly to Missouri today. Moisture will increase gradually in the southerly flow ahead of the low, producing mainly mid and high clouds. However, a few showers and thunderstorms may develop primarily over western counties this afternoon in a modestly unstable regime containing under 200 J/KG CAPE. Have backed off PoPs from previous forecasts due to slower progression of the system. High temperatures in the low to mid 70s will be close to 20 degrees above normal.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
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Low pressure system will be lifting from Missouri to Chicago tonight through Sunday. Even though the system will be weakening as it moves into a broad upper ridge, a large swath of moisture and lift ahead of the low will impact the ILN area. Showers will become widespread tonight through Sunday, and thunderstorms will also be possible. Severe weather threat appears to be limited by marginal CAPE of around 500 J/KG. High temperatures will be reduced by clouds and precip, with highs in the 60s expected.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Mid level ridging will move quickly east across the area through Monday morning before another fast moving mid and upper level trough axis pushes east across the area Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. This will bring another chance of showers to the region. The better instabilities remain along and south of the Ohio River, so will keep the best chance for any thunder across southern portions of our fa. Highs on Monday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s, cooling to highs in the 60s by Tuesday. Surface high pressure will nose down into the area from the north as it slides east across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will result in dry but cooler conditions with highs on Wednesday in the upper 50s to lower 60s. A weakening upper level trough will lift out of the southern plains and across the Tennessee Valley Thursday into Friday, bringing another chance of showers through the end of the work week. Highs on Thursday and Friday will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR will continue through the forecast period. Moisture will increase on a southerly flow ahead of low pressure centered far to the west. This will produce mid and high clouds for the most part. Showers may occur at CVG in the last part of their 30 hour TAF, but ceilings and visibilities are expected to remain VFR due to a rather dry boundary layer. Winds from the south will gust to 20 knots during the afternoon at most sites. Kept wind shear out of the forecast with models showing speeds below threshold for inclusion. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities as well as thunderstorms are possible Sunday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible again late Monday into Tuesday morning. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Coniglio

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