Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 151425 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1025 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARMING TREND AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL EXIT OUR FAR ERN CWFA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS LOW PRESSURE TO OUR EAST MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...MID LEVEL UPR TROF AXIS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... COMBINED WITH COLD 850 MB TEMPERATURES...WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. IN FACT...WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WE COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. LITTLE IF NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST AS WELL...AND WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE...SPOTTY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE GONE BY THIS EVENING. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL. THEY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO NEAR 40 SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THE FAR SW CWFA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS UNTIL TEMPERATURES FIRMLY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 20S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. THIS WILL REQUIRE THE UPGRADE TO A FREEZE WARNING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INITIATE RETURN FLOW AND A REBOUND OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION IN SLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO PUSH INTO THE 60S. MODELS HAVE STARTED TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION FOR FRIDAYS SYSTEM KICKING OF THE NATIONS MID SECTION. THE GFS IS MUCH LESS ENERGETIC AND WOUND UP WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE STRONGER. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS ACTUALLY WEAKENED THE SYSTEM A LITTLE. FRIDAY SHOULD START OFF DRY...WITH POPS INCREASING DURING THE DAY...BUT IN THE CHC CATEGORY. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE CARRIED IN THE W. THE BEST LIFT COME ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT...SO CARRIED THE BEST POPS THEN. THE SYSTEM PULLS E ON SATURDAY...LEAVING A LINGERING CHC OF SHOWERS. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY WHILE THE ECMWF PUTS MORE FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH INDUCES A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE ENSEMBLES ARE LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION...SO DOWNPLAYED THE NRN STREAM ENERGY. WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. ON FRIDAY...HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S...WITH THE SE STAYING AROUND 70. OVER THE WEEKEND HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... PCPN HAS CHANGED OVER TO ALL SNOW AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES ATTM...WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN JUST WEST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR. PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST FAIRLY EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS INTO THE AREA. IN NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE DROPPING DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND SUPPOSE A FEW OF THESE COULD AFFECT THE WESTERN TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...CIGS SHOULD LIFT THROUGH MVFR TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ077. FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ077>082-088. KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ089>092- 094-095. FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>100. IN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ073>075- 080. FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR INZ073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/LATTO NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/LATTO SHORT TERM...LATTO LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...JGL

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