Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 022336 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 636 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY EVENING. DRIER AIR ON BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... UPDATES THIS EVENING ARE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RAPID FILLING IN SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE AND OVERSPREAD WESTERN 1/2 OF CWA. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY RESULTANT WINDS FROM THESE STORMS THAT ARE BRINING DOWN THE 60-70KT WINDS JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF OF THE DECK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WORKING INTO SOUTHWESTERN CWA AND MUCH OF INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE RAIN TONIGHT WILL NOT START UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN ON A STRONG 60-70KT LLJ. THIS SAME WIND SPEED/DIRECTION WILL ALSO KEEP MIN TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT IN THE REALM OF RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS. USED RAW NAM BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR A START ON TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL SURELY BE NON-DIURNAL AND OUT OF THE NORM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TIMING THAT WAS SHIFTED ON THE EARLIER FORECAST TODAY APPEARED TO ACCURATELY ACCOUNT FOR A SLIGHTLY LATER SHIFT IN THE EXPECTED ONSET OF RAIN TONIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TONIGHT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING DOWN WINDS IN THE H8 LLJET AND CREATE SOME TYPE OF DAMAGE BUT I DO NOT SEE THE THREAT FOR A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. MAYBE SOME ISOLATED POCKETS FOCUSED IN OUR SOUTHWEST. AM MORE CONCERNED THAT THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND COULD PERSIST FOR AN HOUR OR TWO...INCREASING THE LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... WINDS NEVER SHIFT MORE THAN SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE EXITING RAIN OVERNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE THROUGH OR ALMOST THROUGH OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES IN THE SCIOTO VALLEY AND HOCKING HILLS AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO FALL DURING THE DAY WITH A CONTINUED STRONG SURFACE WIND FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BY THE AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SHUNTING THE ELONGATED VORT MAXIMA WILL USHER IN THE COLDER AIR FROM ALOFT AND HELP SHIFT WINDS WEST. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW MAY INTERACT WITH THE COLD AIR AND MIX SOME SNOW WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TOWARDS SUNSET. THE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRY THREAT WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY SUBSIDE ON THURSDAY AFTER DAYBREAK AS THE MOISTURE DECREASES AND LIFT SOURCE RACES AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HAMPER TEMPERATURE RECOVERIES ON THURSDAY TO JUST A HANDFUL OF DEGREES OFF OF THEIR MORNING LOW...IF THERE ARE ANY RECOVERIES AT ALL. MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURS AND THURS NIGHT AS HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 30S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORECAST FOCUS ON POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR MONDAY AND ARCTIC TYPE AIR. PERIOD BEGINS WITH NEAR SEASONABLE REGIME. WEAK FRONT FOR SATURDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIMITED CHANGE OF AIR. WARM UP FOR SUNDAY BEFORE S/W AND COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP TIMING AND COVERAGE. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE LATEST ECMWF AND HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE INCREASE AND LIGHT ACCUMULATION WITH FALLING TEMPS. COLDEST AIR ARRIVES IN EARNEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. IN THIS REGIME WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SO CHANCE POPS FOR THIS. TEMPS A BIT TRICKY ESPECIALLY MONDAY WITH COLD AIR AND SNOW. HAVE GONE GENERALLY AT OR BELOW GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVERSPREADING OUR WESTERN AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO WORK SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT MAY WEAKEN SOME AS THE SECONDARY LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. AT ANY RATE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PREVAILING MVFR SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY WORK EAST IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAFS WITH SOME OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS/MVFR CIGS. EXPECT THE THUNDER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN MORE SPOTTY/EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SHOWERS SO WILL TRY TO HANDLE THAT WITH A VCTS. THERE IS STILL SOME DOUBT AS TO THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SECONDARY LINE OF STORMS THAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD AND POSSIBLY AFFECT AT LEAST OUR SOUTHERN TAF SITES. WITH THE EARLIER PCPN CURRENTLY MOVING IN ACROSS OUR AREA HELPING TO STABILIZE/MOISTEN UP THE LOWER LEVELS...INSTABILITIES SHOULD BE FAIRLY MARGINAL. WILL GO AHEAD AND ALLOW FOR PREVAILING SHOWERS ON INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT LIMIT THUNDER TO JUST A VCTS. AS THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP...CIGS SHOULD EVENTUALLY DROP DOWN INTO MVFR AND THEN LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVELS SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH CIGS IMPROVING INTO VFR. AS WE GET INTO SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL CAA...EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY IN THE 25 TO 35 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...FRANKS/SITES SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...PADGETT AVIATION...JGL

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