Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 242054 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 454 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER COVERAGE HAS BEEN VERY LIMITED. THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF. EXPECT SOME CLOUD COVER TO STICK AROUND FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THEREFORE DO NOT THINK THAT FOG WILL BE THAT BIG OF AN ISSUE. STILL HAVE PATCHY FOG MENTION OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HOWEVER LIMITED THE MENTION TO PATCHY FOG DUE TO SOME CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE FA. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE 90S. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING HOWEVER THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER HOT DAY WILL BE IN STORE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 90S ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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COLD FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH THE REGION IN THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD. IT WILL STILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 12Z MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SO HAVE DRIED OUT THE FORECAST FOR THEN WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGE. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING A RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE PARTICULARLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AREA DOMINATED BY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ON THE EDGE OF THE DOMINANT RIDGE WITH SCT VFR CU THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FOR KCVG/KLUK...ANY ISOLATED ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN WEST BUT STILL SOME SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR SHRA. FOR THE OVERNIGHT...STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS WITH IFR POTENTIAL AT KLUK IN THE 06-13Z TIMEFRAME. AFTER THAT TIME...SE FLOW WITH VFR CONDITIONS. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM... AVIATION...JDR

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