Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 152149 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 449 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A warm front will push northward tonight into Monday. A cold front will move through on Tuesday. Surface high pressure will build into the region on Wednesday before pushing off to the east on Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Isentropic lift currently focused across southern portions of the region will push northward tonight into Monday morning. As it does expect some light precipitation further north as well. Cannot rule out some patchy light freezing rain or freezing drizzle as temperatures further north where temperatures will be at or below freezing. With low level moisture fog will also be present overnight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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The front will lift northward on Monday and any remaining precipitation is expected to come to an end. Temperatures will rise into the 40s and 50s on Monday and 50s and 60s on Tuesday. Additional precipitation will move into the region Monday night into Tuesday in advance of a cold front. There is some instability on Tuesday and have thunder chances in the forecast. Cannot rule out an isolated severe storm on Thursday across southeastern portions of the forecast area. Do not expect much in the way of sunshine on Tuesday which will be a limiting factor. An upper level disturbance will move through Tuesday night keeping precipitation chances in the forecast.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Trough will be moving out at the beginning of the period. High pressure will then build in and quickly head off to the east. Southerly flow on the back side of the high combined with rising upper heights will result in much above normal temperatures. Tail end of a short wave lifting north through the Mississippi Valley will bring some showers to the area on Friday. Approaching low pressure will result in more showers on Sunday.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface high pressure remains centered off to our north this afternoon with low clouds trying to break across our northern taf sites. An upper level disturbance off to our west will continue to work into CVG/ LUK this afternoon while at the same time halting the advance of the low level dry air. Monday morning the weak upper level lift from the disturbance working in combination with some low level moisture will produce some very light rain. At the same time dry air moving in from around 600 mb looks to transition the light rain back over to drizzle by Monday morning. High res models kind of hint at this. Have included the mention of drizzle in the TAFs for all locations except CMH/ LCK (closer to the low level dry air). With the abundant low level moisture CIGs will also likely remain LIFR. During the day Monday some high res guidance is indicating that a recovery to MVFR will be possible but looking at GFS/ NAM forecast soundings this will probably be hard to come by. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities through Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM... AVIATION...Haines

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