Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 141759 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 159 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure is forecast to keep mainly dry weather over the region today through Tuesday. Low pressure and associated fronts will bring the threat for showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday and continuing Thursday. High pressure and drier air are expected to return on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Echoes have moved off, but cannot rule out a few showers redeveloping over southern counties through the afternoon. However, any activity should be rather isolated. Clouds will continue streaming across the far south with scattered to broken cumulus elsewhere. Temperatures will be warmer in northern areas where clouds are not as persistent, but only minor changes to forecast readings through the afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Expect mainly dry weather tonight through Tuesday as disturbances move east leaving a weak ridge of high pressure, though a slight chance for showers will persist tonight in far southeast counties. Models indicate low level moisture convergence under an inversion late tonight to early Tuesday, so added patchy fog to forecast. Expect partly to mostly sunny skies Tuesday once morning fog burns off, helping temperatures reach the middle 80s Tuesday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Zonal flow pattern with surface ridge sliding across the Great Lakes Tuesday to the east by Wednesday. Southerly low level return flow will allow an increase in moisture Wednesday ahead of a warm front. Best forcing and instability to remain to our west Wednesday, so will only mention chance pops west with slight chance pops east Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will warm a little above normal, with highs in the mid and upper 80s. Weak surface wave to track through the Great Lakes late in the week with associated surface cold front moving through ILN/s FA Friday. Moderate instability expected to develop in the warm sector Thursday. Will continue to show a period of likely pops Thursday. Temperatures to continue above normal with highs Thursday generally in the middle 80s. With the passage of the surface cold front chances for precipitation will diminish Friday. Temperatures looks closer to normal with highs on Friday in the lower and middle 80s. Model solutions continue to show a good spread in the zonal flow pattern. Therefore, uncertainty in the forecast increases next weekend. ECMWF shows more amplification with northwesterly flow and surface high pressure providing dry weather next weekend. GFS brings a shortwave and associated pcpn across the area Saturday night into Sunday. Have limited any pops to just a slight chance due to such a spread in solutions. Temperatures continue closer to normal with highs Sat/Sun in the lower and middle 80s. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Scattered to broken cumulus at the beginning of the period will continue into the evening before diminishing overnight. Winds will become light and variable, and assuming clouds decrease sufficiently, visibility restrictions will likely develop from KCVG/KLUK to KILN. At this point, the chance of mist/fog at other terminals looks lower but is still possible.. Visibilities will improve after 12Z with cumulus redeveloping late the period. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday and Thursday night.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...

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