Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 260920 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 420 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM UNDERCUTS THE REGION AND PASSES TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. WEST FLOW ON THANKSGIVING DAY WILL OCCUR AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVER THE REGION...BRINGING SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND PASS TO THE EAST...INITIATING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING AND LIMIT TEMPERATURE RECOVERIES TODAY. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S IN THE NORTHWEST TO LOW 40S OVER KY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND UNDERCUT THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS ESTABLISHED AND GETTING WORKED OVER IN THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOLLOW THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND SPARK SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO RISE OUT OF THE MID 30S WITH COLD ADVECTION OVER THE REGION. THIS COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE PULLED INTO THE AREA ON WNW WINDS UNTIL THE AXIS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE CLIPPER CROSSES ON FRIDAY. FLOW WILL TURN SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY AND THE COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLIGHT WARMUP THAT WILL BE REINFORCED OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WEAK WARMING WILL SPARK A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND COULD AFFECT NORTHERN CWA ON FRIDAY...BUT IS NOT VERY LIKELY TO BE LOCATED THAT FAR SOUTH AT THIS PARTICULAR TIME IN THE FORECAST PROCESS.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AT THE SURFACE HEADING INTO SATURDAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AN INVERSION AND RELATIVELY THICK LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THINGS FROM BECOMING WELL MIXED BELOW 5000 FEET. EVEN AS MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LOW CEILINGS APPEAR FAIRLY LIKELY...AND THERE IS EVEN WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEGINNING BY SATURDAY EVENING (SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR WHAT LOOKS LIKE A DRIZZLY PROFILE). WITH WARM ADVECTION AND PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER...MIN TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT / SUNDAY MORNING WERE INCREASED BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO SUNDAY...AS FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS OVR THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. A SURFACE FRONT IS EVENTUALLY FORECAST TO DEVELOP...AND MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA HEADING INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...GIVEN THE SHARP GRADIENT...BUT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE MIX WITH SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIPITATION PATTERNS WITH THIS FRONT ARE FAIRLY STRONG...WITH A SLIGHT TREND TOWARD PRECIPITATION GETTING FURTHER SOUTH A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...ALLOWING FOR A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF MILD (ABOVE NORMAL) TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... TAFS REMAIN WEDGED BETWEEN SYSTEMS THIS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAVE RETREATED BACK INTO NRN INDIANA AND NW OH...WHILE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EAST COAST STORM STREAM ACROSS THE REGION. AS A H5 S/W DIGS OUT OF THE PLAINS IT WILL HELP THE FLOW TO PUSH THE MVFR CLOUDS SEWD OVERNIGHT. MODEL TIME SECTIONS ARE INDICATING THAT THEY COULD REACH KDAY AROUND SUNRISE. MODELS ONCE AGAIN ARE STALLING THE SE ADVANCEMENT OF THE MVFR CIGS AROUND I-71...MAKING THE CLOUD FORECAST TRICKY. BROUGHT THE MVFR CIGS INTO CVG/LUK FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS LATE THIS MORNING...THEN PULLED THEM BACK TO THE NW. WITH THE EAST COAST STORM HOLDING THINGS UP...CIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN TAFS WILL LOWER LATER THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. AS EAST COAST STORM PULLS AWAY LATER TODAY...THE WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE TN VALLEY...KEEPING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...SITES

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