Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 240554 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1254 AM EST WED DEC 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING STRONG WINDS...SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PULLING MOISTURE N FROM THE GULF. EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL VORTICES HAVE CAUSED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER ERN KY AND LIFT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO. RESIDUAL LIFT HAS CAUSED SCATTERED SHOWERS OUT OVER THE MIAMI VALLEY. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING A MINIMUM IN THE PCPN CHANCES BETWEEN 06-12Z. SO WENT CATEGORICAL AT THE ONSET OF THE UPDATE...TAPERING THINGS DOWN TO 20 POPS BEFORE BRINGING SOME CHANCE BACK IN BY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR STEADY OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRAVELING NORTH FROM KENTUCKY TO THE INDIANA- OHIO BORDER ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE AT ALL LOCATIONS...AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. UNDER A 50+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDS WILL BECOME AN ISSUE. IN ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS...STRONGER GUSTS MAY MIX DOWN WITH SHOWERS. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT BRISK WINDS MAY PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AS THE LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST LEAVING A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE. ONCE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN AND CHANGE RESIDUAL PRECIP TO SNOW SHOWERS WHICH MAY LEAVE A DUSTING BY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY WEATHER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS PERSISTING IN A COOL WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY WITH RESPECT TO THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM...WITH GREATER THAN AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE MANY VARIABLES INVOLVED. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS AROUND 60 ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH CLOUDS AND PRECIP COULD KEEP READINGS FROM REACHING THEIR POTENTIAL. HIGHS AROUND 40 ARE FORECAST IN THE SEASONABLE AIRMASS ARRIVING ON THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON FRIDAY WILL PERMIT WARM AIR TO FUNNEL INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARM AND MORE MOIST AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE REGION MAY RESULT IN SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND MORE SO INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. BY SATURDAY EVENING IRRECONCILABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL MASS FIELDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP. GFS PUSHES AFOREMENTIONED FRONT THROUGH TO THE APPALACHIAN RIDGE AND THE EURO AND CANADIAN LINGER THE FRONT NW OF I-71 CORRIDOR IN NW CWA. THEY ALSO KEEP PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT WHICH IS IN DIRECT OPPOSITION TO GFS. OTHER MODELERS SEEM TO JUST BLEND OPPOSING SOLUTIONS TO COME TO MIDDLE GROUND. THIS METHOD JUST DOES NOT WORK AS A VIABLE WAY TO EVOLVE A LONGER RANGE FORECAST. TRIED TO WEIGHT THE FORECAST TOWARDS PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT KNOW THAT THE LONG RANGE WAS IN A SIMILAR SITUATION YESTERDAY. FOR AS OFF AS THE SURFACE FIELDS ARE IN THE MODELS...H5 AND LONGWAVE PATTERN IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A TROUGH IN THE PLAINS AND SW FLOW OVER THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. GFS BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND EURO DEEPENS THE TROUGH IN THE MIDWEST FOR THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS OF THE DIFFERENCES...IT IS REASONABLE TO ASSUME THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE REGION NEXT WEEK AND HELP USHER IN COLDER AIR FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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LOWER CLOUDS ARE SCATTERED TO BROKEN ACROSS THE REGION AND EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AT OR AFTER 12Z. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS AGAIN WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD THEN DIMINISH. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL. AND AS WINDS VEER THEY WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD ALTHOUGH STILL BE QUITE GUSTY. OUTLOOK...WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ060-061-070>072-077>082-088. WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-062>065-073-074. KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100. IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...FRANKS AVIATION...

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