Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 201742 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1242 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will drift slowly east across the region today. Morning fog will give way to afternoon sunshine and warmer temperatures. A very weak cold front will move through on Tuesday, allowing for scattered rain showers. The weak front will wash out in the area as much above normal temperatures continue through the workweek. Another storm system will bring additional rain chances toward the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Although a few isolated locations still are experiencing fog, the fog has dissipated in most locations. Where fog has dissipated there has been a quick jump in temperatures. With decent amounts of sunshine today, still expect temperatures to rise into the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Northern stream upper trough to track through the northern plains today and though the Great Lakes Tuesday. NAM soln phases this northern system with a southern upper low and therefore is a little slower and much more robust with pcpn event. GFS/ECMWF consensus solns do not phase these systems, are more progressive and therefore less aggressive with pcpn event from a weakening frontal system. NAM soln is an outlier and therefore have followed this blended GFS/ECMWF soln with clouds increasing tonight but precipitation holding off until early Tuesday. In waa pattern mild temperatures to continue tonight with lows from the mid 40s northeast to the lower 50s southwest. With low level jet and associated forcing lifting northeast through the Great LAkes have gone with likely pops across the north Tuesday and chance elsewhere. The front pushes into Ohio and washes out. Expect continued warm readings with highs from the mid 60s northwest to near 70 southeast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Weakening boundary will be moving east Tuesday night into Wednesday, with shower chances diminishing. A warm front developing ahead of low pressure will be the focus for shower and thunderstorm formation on Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will become likely on Friday when a trailing cold front is forecast to cross the area. There may be a few strong thunderstorms organized by strong wind fields associated with the cold front. Mainly dry weather is expected Saturday and Sunday as a large area of high pressure builds in on a broad westerly flow aloft. Temperatures will be well above normal Wednesday through Friday due to warm advection in the low levels coupled with a ridge aloft. Highs are forecast to be mainly in the 60s, with lower 70s possible Friday. Look for readings to retreat closer to normal for Saturday and Sunday, when cold advection will drop highs back into the 40s to low 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Visibilities continue to improve across the TAF sites and will become VFR this afternoon. An increase in mid and high clouds overnight should limit fog development tonight. Cannot rule out some fog at the more favorable fog location KLUK earlier in the night before more clouds move in. Rain showers are expected to hold off until after the end of the TAF period, except for the longer KCVG TAF. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible Tuesday night and Wednesday. Thunderstorms are possible Thursday and Friday. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures Date CVG CMH DAY Mon 2/20 72(1891/2016) 68(1891/2016) 69(2016) Tue 2/21 70(1930) 71(1997) 68(1930) Wed 2/22 71(1922) 70(1930) 69(1922) Thu 2/23 72(1985/1996) 66(1906/1985) 68(1985) Fri 2/24 72(1930) 72(1961) 67(1930/1961) && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines/AR NEAR TERM...Haines/AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...Novak CLIMATE... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.