Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 210945 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 445 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will move across the area this morning bringing widespread showers and cooler temperatures. Low pressure tracking just south of the region tonight into Thursday will result in more widespread precipitation. Unsettled conditions will remain into the weekend as additional weather systems pass through the region.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Cold front has entered the far northwest part of the forecast area. It will continue east across the region through the morning. Showers will continue to occur along and immediately behind the front. Still cannot rule out an embedded thunderstorm. Could be some locally moderate rainfall, but that appears progressive, so flood threat from this looks minimal. High resolution guidance is suggesting that a second band of showers will lag behind closer to the upper level forcing. This will primarily affect western counties with lighter precipitation. Temperatures will be dropping through the day.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
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Appears that there will be a minimum in precipitation early in the evening, but this will not last long. A wave along the front that passes through the area today will track just south of the region tonight into Thursday. This will cause a large shield of rain to spread over the entire forecast area tonight and then push off to the east on Thursday. Looks like there could be a little more substantial rainfall with this system, particularly across southern counties. So there could be some minor flood issues. The other concern is that temperatures north of I-70 will likely fall to or just below freezing. This would result in a period of freezing rain. Still a degree of uncertainty with the temperature forecast. Also, it is not clear how much impact this would have on roads. At this point will just continue to highlight in the HWO. Forecast lows are a multi-model blend while highs leaned towards cooler guidance.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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An active weather pattern will be in place from Thursday night through Saturday night. Multiple rounds of rain will move through the region. One round will move through Thursday night into Friday. Another round will move through late Friday night through the day on Saturday. Finally the front will move through Saturday night bringing yet another round of rain to the area. Dry conditions will finally move in for the day on Sunday and remain in place for the remainder of the long term period. The multiple rounds of moderate to possibly heavy rainfall at times will lead to rises on area creeks and streams along with the potential for flooding. Will continue this mention in the HWO. There is some instability during the day southeast of Interstate 71 on Friday and therefore went with a chance of thunder during this time. Additional thunder chances will be possible during the day on Saturday south of Dayton to Columbus. Finally additional thunder chances will be possible over the region in advance of the frontal boundary Saturday night. Winds will pick up near the front and after the front moves through Saturday night into Sunday. Wind gusts around 30 to 40 mph at times will be possible. Temperatures will drop for the first part of the night Thursday night, but then will climb the second part of the night as warmer air works into the region. Temperatures will continue to climb into Friday with highs in the 50s and 60s. Similar temperatures will be present for Saturday before the cold front moves through Saturday night. With the passage of the cold front temperatures will only be in the middle 40s to middle 50s on Sunday. Similar high temperatures will then remain through the remainder of the long term.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Southerly flow will persist through most of the night with VFR conditions. As a cold front approaches, some showers may develop along with MVFR ceilings. Expect the front to cross the terminals from 11Z to 13Z. After frontal passage, ceilings will drop to IFR along with persistent showers that may lower visibilities to MVFR. Winds will shift to northwest. The showers will eventually decrease in coverage, but IFR ceilings will linger. Winds will slowly veer through the day and eventually become northeast after 00Z. Looks like ceilings will lift to MVFR late in the day at most locations. Rain will spread across the area late in the TAF period. This will bring some visibility restrictions. In addition, ceilings are forecast to fall back to IFR except from KDAY to KCMH/KLCK. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities are likely to continue into Saturday night. MVFR ceilings may linger Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...

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