Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 130545
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1245 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2017
A cold front will settle south of the region tonight bringing
drier conditions and much cooler temperatures for Friday.
Precipitation will move back into the area beginning late Friday
afternoon, bringing the threat of mixed winter precipitation through
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Updated the forecast to linger precipitation longer this evening
across the southeast. Precipitation is still expected to move out
of the area before temperatures drop below freezing. With
temperatures dropping below freezing overnight any lingering water
on roadways could freeze and create some slick spots. Due to this
have an SPS in place overnight to highlight this potential.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday starts off dry as the front and pcpn starts off in srn KY,
but begins to lift north as isentropic lift increases. An arctic high
over the Great Lakes will keep cold temperatures locked in at the
boundary layer. Highs on Friday, will range from the lower 30s
across the northwest to the upper 30s in the south. A location or
two in the south might make the lower 40s.
As mentioned above, the widespread lift will develop late Friday
afternoon, spreading ne into the region Friday night. Forecast
models/soundings are showing a surge of warm air aloft that would
support the warm rain process. But with the arctic air locked in
at the surface, the pcpn will be freezing rain/sleet by the time
it reaches the ground. Across the far northern counties, a few
tenths of an inch of snow may fall before the pcpn changes over
to freezing pcpn. It is looking like the I-70 corridor is setting
up to see the worst of the freezing rain accumulations with around
a tenth of an inch possible. South of there, temps will be higher
and in West Central Ohio, the snow will steal some of the pcpn.
Temperatures will warm on Saturday afternoon, reaching the lower
40s in the south, the mid to upper 30s around I-70 and mid 30s in
the extreme north. This should change the majority of the pcpn to
regular rain. Will continue with the mention in the HWO, allowing
one more model cycle before we issue an advisory, which should
help in the placement and amounts.
As temperatures cool back down Saturday night into the 20s and
lower to mid 30s, there will probably be addition icing as the
rain changing back to freezing rain. Northern KY looks like it
will stay warm enuf for liquid rain.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure moving east through the lower Great Lakes will push
dry air into the northern Ohio Valley early on Sunday. Before this
happens, some early morning showers over the southern half of the
CWA will result in the possibility of freezing rain just south of
the I-70 corridor. This freezing threat will be brief, and occur
with increasing temperatures in the morning and decreasing chances
A warm front will lift northward overnight Sunday and northwestern
CWA will stand a better chance for rain as it passes. The non-
diurnal temperature trends will inhibit any chances of ZR over the
northern CWA early on Monday, and the subsequent warm air push will
keep rain as the wxtype from that point onwards.
By Monday night and especially Tuesday, the surface low tracks
northeast into the Great Lakes region and drops a cold front and
subsequent surface low development in the lower Mississippi Valley.
This continues to bring an ever-increasing threat for persistent
rainfall on Tuesday, possibly becoming moderate rain overnight.
Added moderate rain to the forecast between 3 and 14z Wed where pops
On Wednesday, a cold front will track east through the Ohio Valley
and any rain will end from northwest to southeast during the day.
Latest runs of the GFS hang the cold front back over southern CWA
Wednesday and the European keeps the surface circulation in eastern
Ohio and a threat for rain over southeastern CWA, decreasing through
Wednesday night. Thursday shows a weak surface low tracking sw-ne
through CWA and an increased chance of rain.
Ran with slightly warmer than guidance on temperatures in the warm
sector for the bulk of the extended forecast.
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --MVFR ceilings will persist for several hours behind a cold front.
VFR can be expected from morning to evening, before precip
develops along a boundary moving in from the southwest. MVFR
ceilings will form again late in the forecast, and FZRA will
occur starting around 03z as the surface cools to just below 32F.
Winds shifting from north to east and averaging about 10 knots
will bring the cooler temperatures necessary for FZRA.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities are possible at
times Saturday through Tuesday. Freezing rain is possible again
Saturday night into Sunday morning.
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