Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 230509 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 109 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain across the region through Friday. A weak cold front will move into the area Saturday...stall near the Ohio River and then lift back north early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Not many changes to forecast this evening as high pressure remains in control across the area. Highs Friday will again be in the upper 80s and approach 90 degrees as both 850 and 925 mb temperatures don`t change much. 1000/850mb thicknesses also are around 1420 m which supports high temperatures approaching 90. Surface high pressure will washout Friday afternoon as a cold front pushes south through Michigan. The front will remain north of the area as it stalls Friday evening. Prev Discussion-> Some cirrus will spread across the region overnight. But this should have little if any effect on radiational cooling conditions. Winds will become light again. Lows will be slightly warmer than last night but a bit cooler than guidance. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will remain across the region for another day. There will be some mid to high clouds...but still a good deal of sun. Temperatures will be near persistence. A weak cold front oriented east-west will sag south. Wind shift will move through Friday night with any change in airmass lagging behind and not moving into the area until Saturday. Forcing is meager but 12Z models have enough of a signal to warrant slight chance PoPs in the Whitewater and Miami Valleys Saturday afternoon. Expect the front to stall near the Ohio River. This front will lead to a pretty good gradient in temperatures from north to south both Saturday and Saturday night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Models are in agreement on keeping Sunday dry, however there is still quite a bit of model variability beyond this time. At this time Monday and Wednesday look to be the best chance for precipitation. Limited any precipitation chances to the chance category until there is better resolution and confidence in one solution. Models are trending cooler for later portions of the long term. Went with a model blend for the Monday through Thursday time period. Sunday and Monday will be the warmest days with cooler conditions after that time. && .AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Surface high pressure will keep conditions generally VFR through the forecast period, with the exception of the usual fog (IFR/LIFR) at KLUK early this morning. Some high and mid level clouds are moving through the region as of this writing, and a few cumulus clouds may develop during the afternoon. Winds are expected to remain light through the next 18-20 hours or so. Late tonight and going into early Saturday morning, winds will shift to the northeast, and increase slightly in intensity. Clouds will also begin to lower, though as of now it appears that they are most likely to remain in the VFR range. OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms are possible on Monday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...Haines SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...Hatzos is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.