Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 150812 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 412 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure centered to the east will keep dry weather over the Ohio Valley today through Sunday. Warmer temperatures are forecast in the southerly flow behind the high. A cold front arriving on Monday will bring the next chance for precipitation.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Surface high pressure is centered near the panhandle of West Virginia. As a ridge builds in the upper atmosphere, the high will lift very slowly northeast today. Fog is forming early this morning in residual moisture trapped under the high, especially around the edges of the forecast area where clearing has occurred. With dense fog affecting several locations in Central Ohio, decided to go with a Dense Fog Advisory in and around Columbus through 10am. Have held off on an advisory for the rest of the area for now, and have reissued SPS through 8am to highlight reduced visibilities. Once any fog burns off by mid morning, expect partly to mostly sunny skies. High temperatures reaching the mid and upper 70s will be near normal.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
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Surface high pressure will continue to move slowly northeast tonight through Saturday, pushed by a weak upper flow associated with a ridge aloft. Dry weather is forecast to persist in the circulation around the high, though fog may form early Saturday morning under calm winds and partly cloudy skies. Temperatures will exhibit a warming trend, with highs forecast to reach the lower 80s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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An upper level ridge will provide dry weather and above normal temperatures this weekend. A shortwave lifting through southern Canada will allow a surface cold front to push into the Great Lakes Monday. Marginal instability along with this front develops over the northwest, providing a chance of thunderstorms Monday. A weak embedded shortwave along with marginal instability will keep a slight chance/chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the forecast Tuesday into Wednesday over ILN/s southwest counties. More uncertainty develops regarding strength and position of mid/upper level ridge for the end of the week. Will favor a solution closer to the ECMWF with dry weather and warm temperatures for the end of the week.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... With humid air trapped near the ground under high pressure, aviation will be affected by FG and BR early in the forecast. Went with visibility as low as LIFR at LUK through 13z. Other sites may see IFR or MVFR, though lower visibilities could develop if skies clear more than expected. Conditions will improve back to VFR after sunrise. BR may form again late in the forecast. Expect no precipitation through the TAF period. Ceilings should stay VFR outside of surface obscuration. Winds will be light out of the south around the slow moving high pressure. OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected at this time. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ046-055- 056-064-065-073-074. KY...None. IN...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Coniglio

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