Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 281415 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1015 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE AND A WEAK COLD APPROACH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEW YORK LATE THIS MORNING. THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOSED MID LVL CIRCULATION WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND REGION TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SKIES IN THE WEST WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR FAR EASTERN LOCATIONS...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE MOISTURE SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTHWEST. THESE READINGS ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... HAVE USED A BLEND OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND THE ECMWF FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A WEAK COLD FRONT FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE THAT A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP TO OUR WEST OVERNIGHT...MOVING EAST INTO THE REGION DURING MONDAY MORNING. THIS MOIST...CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND THEN PUSHING EAST INTO THE WRN CWFA TOWARD SUNRISE. FOR THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST...PCPN WILL MOVE EAST AS WELL...BUT COULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AS THE JET WEAKENS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACRS THE SRN GREAT LAKES. ITS ATTENDANT WEAK COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION. CONVERGENT FLOW AND ANOTHER EMBEDDED S/WV SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PCPN IS EXPECTED TO WANE IN COVERAGE AND SHIFT EAST TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH. FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY AND ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THERE SEEMS TO BE A LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL FORCING DURING THIS PERIOD OVER OUR AREA...SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY...FAVORING THE DIURNAL CYCLE. ON WEDNESDAY...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACRS THE REGION. THIS WILL REQUIRE KEEPING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THE PROSPECTS OF MORE SUNSHINE. THE ECMWF INDICATES THAT A ANOTHER S/WV IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MAY PERTURB A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF THIS OCCURS...ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL JET MAY PUSH AN MCS INTO THE REGION...FAVORING SOUTHERN LOCATIONS AT THIS TIME. AS A RESULT...HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS NORTH TO LIKELY POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... GENERAL THINKING FOR THE LONG TERM IS FOR THE OMEGA RIDGE OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES TO SLOWLY START TO BREAK DOWN WITH THE TROUGH LOCATED CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TO REMAIN MOSTLY IN PLACE WITH A SLIGHTLY DECAYING AMPLITUDE. THIS GENERALLY SPELLS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE AREA. NEXT WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO START TO BREAK DOWN WITH WEAK RIDGING/ FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS CONUS. A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH CHANCE POPS IS OF PREFERENCE IN THIS REGIME. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION...AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANY MVFR CLOUDS IN THE COLUMBUS AREA SHOULD CLEAR OUT BETWEEN 12Z-14Z...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE GUSTY THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE SOUTH DURING THE EVENING. LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND LOWER (REACHING THE 4000-8000 FOOT RANGE)...AND A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ON MONDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH...REACHING 10-15 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON OCCASION FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...HAINES AVIATION...HATZOS

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