Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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304 FXUS61 KILN 281951 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 351 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A very warm and humid airmass will remain in place today and Monday. This heat and humidity will keep a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. Slightly drier conditions can be expected Tuesday, under the influence of weak surface high pressure. The next chance for thunderstorms will occur Wednesday with the approach of a cold front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Atmosphere continues to be very warm, moist and unstable across the Ohio Valley. Thunderstorms have already begun to develop across southern Ohio/portions of northern Kentucky early this afternoon. Somewhat more organized convection has also developed across northwest Ohio/northern Indiana closer to a weakening cold front and mid level shortwave. Given the environment, more pop up showers and thunderstorms are expected through the afternoon. Based on radar trends, will focus highest pops across the far southern portion of the CWA initially then later this afternoon/early evening additional convective activity may develop and affect more of the CWA. This solution is more in line with recent runs of the HRRR. High preciptable waters will support heavy rainfall in the strongest storms. Some of the storms especially over southern Ohio/northern Kentucky will also exhibit slow movement. Therefore there is the potential for heavy rainfall to result in minor flooding issues. In addition, while shear is forecast to be weak there will likely be sufficient instability (CAPE aoa 2500 J/kg) for the strongest storms to produce gusty or even locally damaging wind gusts. After sunset, much of the activity is expected to dissipate given the large influence daytime heating will have on thunderstorm development/maintenance. Expect another muggy night with dewpoints remaining in the upper 60s to lower 70s. There may be a fair amount of lingering mid clouds overnight which would inhibit fog formation, but can`t rule out patchy fog forming in fog-prone areas late. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Initial frontal boundary to the north looks to wash out Monday, but models suggest that weak high pressure and lower precipitable water values will try to move down at least in central/west- central Ohio later in the day. This may keep that area dry on Monday, however sufficient moisture along with afternoon instability will likely support convective development Monday afternoon further south into Ohio/northern Kentucky. Locally heavy rainfall could once again be a risk with the strongest storms. Lower precipitable waters and a bubble of high pressure press further south Monday night into Tuesday. Therefore, have continued with a dry forecast during this time. A cold front will approach late Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Cold front will push into the region at the beginning of the period. Forcing appears weak and moisture limited...but still included a chance of storms across northern counties. High pressure will build southeast across the Great Lakes and continue off the New England coast by the end of the week. The high will continue extend into the forecast area through the weekend. This will provide dry conditions. Temperatures will drop closer to normal Thursday and Friday and then start to warm over the weekend. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the period with the exception of mvfr br at kluk in the 10-12z timeframe. The sites least likely to see thunderstorm activity this afternoon are KILN/KDAY...with scattered thunderstorms expected across the KCMH/KLCK and then across the KCVG/KLUK locations from especially 20-00z. Winds very light through the period generally from the NE...with otherwise no flight impacts outside of thunderstorms and short lived BR. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible through Wednesday...mainly in the afternoon and evening. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for OHZ073-077>082- 088. KY...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for KYZ089>100. IN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for INZ073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BPP NEAR TERM...BPP SHORT TERM...BPP LONG TERM... AVIATION...JDR

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