Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KILN 190213
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1013 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016
A cold front will drop southeast into Ohio tonight, bringing an
increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms. The chance for
showers and thunderstorms will continue on Wednesday when the
front will be nearly stationary along the Ohio River. A wave of
low pressure traveling up the front will result in widespread
showers and a few thunderstorms Thursday, before drier air filters
in on Friday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Showers have not filled in as much as thought earlier. While the
showers are showing linear alignment, they have been very
scattered in nature. The cdfnt, located to the nw of the region,
will drop se thru the region and will push the pcpn chances se
with it. Went with the best chance of showers from the I-71
corridor sewd. Farther nw, the chance of showers should come to
an end with fropa, and should be followed shortly by clearing. In
the south, the cloud cover will proabably linger all night.
Lows tonight will show a large range: mid 50s in the nw,
increasing up to the mid 60s in the nrn KY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Slow moving front will be near the Ohio River on Wednesday.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through early
afternoon in the convergence and moisture near the stalled
The boundary and associated precip will begin to shift north
Wednesday afternoon when a rather potent wave of low pressure
develops and lifts northeast along the front. As forcing increases
notably Wednesday night, showers and a few thunderstorms will
become widespread especially near Dayton and Columbus. The
widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will continue across
the entire area on Thursday as the system translates slowly
eastward. We may see a drying trend Thursday night as the core of
the system pushes farther east to the Appalachians.
Heavy downpours will be possible. Antecedent soil conditions are
dry enough that widespread flooding may be avoided.
There will be a low chance for damaging wind gusts with any
thunderstorms that develop, mainly along and south of I-71 where
instability will be more favorable.
Temperatures will start to fall on Wednesday, with highs ranging
from the lower 70s northwest to around 80 southeast. The cooling
trend will continue on Thursday, with highs varying from the lower
60s northwest up to the upper 70s southeast.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The upper level trough will be shifting off to the east on Friday
which will allow for pcpn to taper off from the west through the
morning hours. In a continued CAA patten, we should see some
lingering clouds into the afternoon and this will help keep highs on
Friday mainly in the mid 50s.
Some weak mid level energy will drop down the back side of the
trough Friday night into Saturday. This could result in a few light
rain showers during the day on Saturday, primarily across our
northeastern areas. Highs on Saturday will again be in the 50s.
Shallow mid level ridging will then begin to gradually build across
central portions of the United States. This will lead to very slowly
increasing heights across our area and keep us in a general west to
northwest flow pattern through the mid part of next week. This will
allow us to return to more seasonable temperatures with highs mainly
in the 60s through the remainder of the long term period.
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Latest radar loop is showing continued development of showers
ahead of an advancing cold front. Expect these showers to try and
fill into more of a solid line over the next few hours, producing
a period of MVFR vsbys in the showers. Ceilings will also lower
to MVFR as cdfnt moves ewd this evening.
Models push the front through the tafs and bring an end to the
showers between 05-09Z tonight. In the nrn tafs, clouds are
forecast to scatter a few hours after the rains end, but the srn
tafs should keep a cloud cover as the front stall out just to
their south. Cigs in the south should lift to VFR shortly after
The front will begin to lift back to the north along with the pcpn
during the late morning in afternoon on Wednesday
OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities likely late
Wednesday night into Friday morning.
10/18 record warm lows - 67 in 1905 --- 65 in 2007 --- 65 in 1947
10/18 record highs ----- 86 in 1938 --- 83 in 1938 --- 86 in 1908