Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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667 FXUS61 KILN 190213 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1013 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will drop southeast into Ohio tonight, bringing an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue on Wednesday when the front will be nearly stationary along the Ohio River. A wave of low pressure traveling up the front will result in widespread showers and a few thunderstorms Thursday, before drier air filters in on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Showers have not filled in as much as thought earlier. While the showers are showing linear alignment, they have been very scattered in nature. The cdfnt, located to the nw of the region, will drop se thru the region and will push the pcpn chances se with it. Went with the best chance of showers from the I-71 corridor sewd. Farther nw, the chance of showers should come to an end with fropa, and should be followed shortly by clearing. In the south, the cloud cover will proabably linger all night. Lows tonight will show a large range: mid 50s in the nw, increasing up to the mid 60s in the nrn KY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Slow moving front will be near the Ohio River on Wednesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through early afternoon in the convergence and moisture near the stalled boundary. The boundary and associated precip will begin to shift north Wednesday afternoon when a rather potent wave of low pressure develops and lifts northeast along the front. As forcing increases notably Wednesday night, showers and a few thunderstorms will become widespread especially near Dayton and Columbus. The widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will continue across the entire area on Thursday as the system translates slowly eastward. We may see a drying trend Thursday night as the core of the system pushes farther east to the Appalachians. Heavy downpours will be possible. Antecedent soil conditions are dry enough that widespread flooding may be avoided. There will be a low chance for damaging wind gusts with any thunderstorms that develop, mainly along and south of I-71 where instability will be more favorable. Temperatures will start to fall on Wednesday, with highs ranging from the lower 70s northwest to around 80 southeast. The cooling trend will continue on Thursday, with highs varying from the lower 60s northwest up to the upper 70s southeast. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The upper level trough will be shifting off to the east on Friday which will allow for pcpn to taper off from the west through the morning hours. In a continued CAA patten, we should see some lingering clouds into the afternoon and this will help keep highs on Friday mainly in the mid 50s. Some weak mid level energy will drop down the back side of the trough Friday night into Saturday. This could result in a few light rain showers during the day on Saturday, primarily across our northeastern areas. Highs on Saturday will again be in the 50s. Shallow mid level ridging will then begin to gradually build across central portions of the United States. This will lead to very slowly increasing heights across our area and keep us in a general west to northwest flow pattern through the mid part of next week. This will allow us to return to more seasonable temperatures with highs mainly in the 60s through the remainder of the long term period. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Latest radar loop is showing continued development of showers ahead of an advancing cold front. Expect these showers to try and fill into more of a solid line over the next few hours, producing a period of MVFR vsbys in the showers. Ceilings will also lower to MVFR as cdfnt moves ewd this evening. Models push the front through the tafs and bring an end to the showers between 05-09Z tonight. In the nrn tafs, clouds are forecast to scatter a few hours after the rains end, but the srn tafs should keep a cloud cover as the front stall out just to their south. Cigs in the south should lift to VFR shortly after sunrise. The front will begin to lift back to the north along with the pcpn during the late morning in afternoon on Wednesday OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities likely late Wednesday night into Friday morning. && .CLIMATE... -------------------------Cincinnati-----Columbus-------Dayton---- 10/18 record warm lows - 67 in 1905 --- 65 in 2007 --- 65 in 1947 10/18 record highs ----- 86 in 1938 --- 83 in 1938 --- 86 in 1908 .......................................................1910 && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Sites CLIMATE... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.