Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 221153 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 753 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Multiple disturbances are expected to bring several rounds of showers and thunderstorms to the region through the weekend and into Monday. High pressure and dry conditions are expected for Tuesday into Wednesday. Another system will bring additional showers and thunderstorms to the region for Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A complex of storms will move across the area this morning. Heavy rain and the potential for isolated damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats with this activity. After this feature moves through there will be a lull in the precipitation. This will allow temperatures to rise, especially across southwestern and southern portions of the forecast area including locations in the tri-state and along and south of the Ohio River. The combination of temperatures this afternoon in the 90s and dewpoints in the 70s will lead to heat index values in the heat advisory criteria range of 100 to 104 degrees. Since this is the second day that Hamilton County is expected to reach these values an excessive heat warning has been issued for the county. Additional thunderstorm activity is expected to develop towards the end of the near term across northern portions of the region. Severe weather will be possible with damaging winds the primary threat. In addition heavy rainfall is expected with these storms. Depending on the amount of rainfall this morning, a flash flood watch may be needed for this evening and into the overnight hours. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Thunderstorms will be ongoing across northern portions of the forecast area at the start of the short term. Thunderstorm activity will sag southward through the night. Heavy rain and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. Have heavy rain mention in the forecast and in the HWO. Also mention severe threat in the HWO as well. Activity will decrease towards the end of the night tonight, however additional thunderstorms are expected to develop during the day on Sunday. There will be an additional severe threat during the day on Sunday with damaging winds again the primary threat. Heat index values on Sunday will be a little lower than today, however heat index values are still expected to be in the 90s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Warm and humid conditions will persist at the beginning of the period. But a cold front will slide through the area on Monday. There could be a few storms along and ahead of the front. High pressure will build in behind the front on Tuesday. But as the high center quickly tracks from the Great Lakes into New England, the trailing ridge axis will get pinched off by Wednesday. So more humid conditions will quickly return in advance of an approaching cold front. This front will move southeast across the area Thursday afternoon into Thursday night with a good chance of thunderstorms. Drier air will be slow to filter in at the end of the week. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Showers and some thunderstorms will continue to push through the region this morning. A lull in the precipitation is then expected. Winds will increase with some wind gusts around 20 knots this afternoon into the early evening hours. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop early this evening and into the overnight hours. Vsbys and cigs will be reduced with thunderstorm activity. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible Sunday and Wednesday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ070-071-078- 079. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ077. KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ089>100. IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ058-059-066- 073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM... AVIATION...Novak

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