Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 231047 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 647 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A WEDGE OF CLEARING WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH TOWARDS WEST CENTRAL OHIO. THIS CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE SOME PROGRESS ALTHOUGH CLEARING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING. ONCE LOW CLOUDS DIMINISH THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY REMAINING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. GIVEN GUIDANCE TRENDS...HAVE LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THUS HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE TONIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME FROST ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. HAVE KEPT IT PATCHY FOR NOW. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY...ESTABLISHING SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL BRING WARMER READINGS ONCE AGAIN. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG AN EAST-WEST FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAKE IT INTO FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY LATER MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY LARGE DIURNAL RANGES IN A MOSTLY DRY AIR MASS. HAVE OPENED THIS RANGE A BIT MORE BY GOING SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR LOWS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN EAST-WEST FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. 00Z GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS SLOWER SOLUTIONS. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH WITH NOT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT...HAVE JUST STAYED WITH MID-RANGE POPS. THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. BUT IT WILL BE IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. AS A WEAKENING UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARDS MID WEEK...A CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL LIFT THE FRONT BACK NORTH WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AGAIN FOR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR AND IFR CIGS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING HOWEVER EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING HOWEVER SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO THE TAF SITES BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...NOVAK

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