Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 301509 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1109 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL REFIRE LATER TODAY AS A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE SWINGS THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND INTERACTS WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... TONIGHT WILL SEE H5 ENERGY...LIFTING N FROM THE DEEP SOUTH...REACH THE REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE CONVECTION TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY SEES H5 RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD INTO OHIO VALLEY. SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MANAGES TO SLIP UNDER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY TO KEEP A MENTION OF A 20 POP MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON TUESDAY...REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS CONTINUING IN THE MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... S/W TO DROP SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AT MID WEEK WITH RIDGE AXIS RE-ESTABLISHING TO OUR WEST. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN. WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED TO OUR WEST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...A NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY. ENHANCED FORCING WILL BE LACKING BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. DO TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING HAVE LIMITED POPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE AFTN. WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S. THE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD EAST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... CONVECTION WILL FIRE AGAIN DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA COMBINES WITH CONVERGENT FLOW OVER THE TAF SITES AHEAD OF IT. LIFR FOG AT KLUK WILL LIFT THIS MORNING AND OTHER TAF SITES MAY SEE SOME MVFR FOG FOR AN HOUR OR SO AFTER DAYBREAK. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SPARING ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF STORMS LATER TODAY AND FOCUS THEM ON ONE OR MORE OF A FEW A NARROW LINES RUNNING SW-NE...MOST LIKELY WHERE THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS STRONGEST. KEPT VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIKELY BE CHANGED TO A THUNDERSTORM WHEN AND IF THE DEVELOP OVER OR UPSTREAM OF A TAF SITE. MODELS DIMINISH ACTIVITY SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 0Z AND HUMIDITY PROFILE ALSO BECOMES QUITE SCATTERED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLEAR SKIES TOWARDS DAYBREAK WHICH COULD ALLOW A DROP IN VSBYS IN FOG TO THE MVFR CATEGORY. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SITES NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...FRANKS

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