Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KILN 140008
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
708 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2017
Precipitation will expand across the region tonight. With
temperatures near or below freezing, periods of freezing rain will
be possible tonight into early Saturday morning. Building high
pressure will push the precipitation to the south of the region
Saturday afternoon and night, before it lifts north again on
Sunday and Sunday night.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
An area of rain continues to drift to the east, tickling the nrn
KY counties. A little farther north, some flurries or sprinkles
have been falling out of a mid deck.
The trend of the latest model runs has been to keep this initial
shot of pcpn in nrn KY, maybe extreme srn OH. At the same time,
they have been keeping temperatures warmer/above freezing in these
same locations. After 06Z, they then develop lift across the area
and develop pcpn up into the I-70 corridor. The secondary shot of
pcpn is much lighter on the QPF and therefore the icing amounts.
So have backed down on the ice amounts a little in the I-70
corridor, less than .1" Meanwhile in srn OH and nrn KY, with sfc
temps starting above freezing, this will limit the freezing rain
and icing on the srn edge. so trimmed Switzerland IN, and
Boone/Kenton/Campbell KY out of the advisory. Hamilton Clermont
and Brown counties were left in as the nrn portions of those
counties could still see icing.
The West Central counties around Lima could see a light dusting
of snow were the deeper cold air is located. Lows for the region
will range from the mid 20s in West Central OH to the mid 30s in
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Lift will be ongoing across the region at the start of Saturday
morning, but weakens quickly, allowing the pcpn to be shunted
south of the Ohio River and high pressure builds in. The models
are stronger with this high than previous runs allowing it to push
the pcpn farther south. Highs Saturday will be near normal,
ranging from the mid 30s in the north to the lower 40s in nrn KY.
Saturday night looks dry down and the nrn counties could see some
breaks in the clouds. Temps will drop back to the mid 20 to lower
30s with the normal n-s gradient.
The front will begin to lift back to the north on Sunday. Rain
will develop on the isentropic lift. This will allow for chance
PoPs to spread back up across the area Sunday afternoon and
evening. Saturday night as the pcpn reaches north of I-70,
temperatures will once again be at or just below freezing, so
a wintery mix will be possible. Any pcpn looks to be fairly
light, but will keep the mention in the HWO.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A warm front lifting northward through the Ohio Valley early on
Monday is getting less and less coverage looking at the QPF fields.
This appears due to the h5 ridge in place that would limit any
upward motion in the region. GFS has an elongated vort maxima that
cuts through a significantly weaker h5 ridge and this was in line
with the previous several days forecast. Was hesitant to lower the
chances of rain in this period to nothing as a low chance seemed
the better forecast. If precip is here at this time, early Monday
would see temps below freezing along and north of the I-70 corridor
for a few hours until temps quickly rise above 32 deg.
As the upper ridge moves east overnight, rain will overspread the
region from the west. Some of this may be heavy at times as the
surface low tracking to the Great Lakes region is strengthening and
the low level jet brings in a good moisture plume from the Gulf.
Models begin to diverge on Tuesday as the GFS brings a cutoff low
tracking south into the midwest and then east through the region.
Canadian and European models are much less robust with the h5 low
and keep a more open wave as it crosses further north. This is the
warmer and wetter solution which has better continuity from previous
forecasts when extrapolating further into Tuesday night and
On Wednesday, a cold front will track east through the Ohio Valley
and any rain will end from west to east during the day. GFS was dry
for early Wednesday whereas European and Canadian hold the surface
front and weak low pressure center over nrn KY early on Wednesday
before exiting east.
Kept Thursday dry and hedged towards a chance of showers on Friday
but feel that any system this far out would only impact areas south
of the CWA.
Continued to keep to the warm side of guidance for the extended
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Off and on precipitation is expected at the TAF sites through
Saturday afternoon. Temperature profiles are such that
precipitation is expected to be rain, freezing rain, or sleet due
to warm air aloft. Cigs will gradually lower tonight falling into
the IFR category. Vsbys will be reduced at times into mainly the
MVFR category, however cannot rule out some IFR vsbys primarily at
KCVG and KLUK.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities are possible at
times Saturday evening through Tuesday.
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-- Changed Discussion --OH...Freezing Rain Advisory until 1 PM EST Saturday for OHZ042-
IN...Freezing Rain Advisory until 1 PM EST Saturday for INZ050-058-
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