Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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738 FXUS61 KILN 160242 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 942 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through this evening. High pressure will build into the region for Thursday. A strong cold front will approach on Friday and move through Saturday into Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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Low clouds are starting to clear the area from the west as the dry slow approaches the area. A cold front is currently just moving into Indiana with more clouds behind it. Temperatures will slowly fall and then accelerate their descent behind the front. The cold front is forecast to clear the area early Thursday morning. Behind the front, temperatures will be just above freezing across our western zones and in the upper 30s across our eastern zones. During the day Thursday, cloud cover will be slow to clear as an area of upper level low pressure takes its time exiting the region. Therefore have kept high temperatures slightly below guidance for Thursday afternoon. Prev Discussion-> Widespread rain shower activity will exit the area this evening, however isolated shower and drizzle activity will linger later into the overnight hours. As a cold front works through tonight temperatures will begin to fall across the region. Winds will pick up for tonight with some wind gusts around 25 to 30 mph. Some clearing will be possible across far southwest portions of the forecast area, however with winds off of the lake later tonight expect cloud cover to remain in place across a large majority of the region.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will build into the region for Thursday. There will be the potential for a few lake effect rain or snow showers across far northwestern portions of the forecast area early in the day. There will be some lingering cloud cover especially across northern portions of the forecast area. Went close to guidance for temperatures with high temperatures in the low to mid 40s and low temperatures Thursday night in the 20s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Models have come into somewhat better agreement with the digging short wave moving out of the Northern Plains and across the Great Lakes Friday into Saturday. There are still some timing differences though, including with the speed of the associated front that will move through our area. The GFS remains faster than the ECMWF and CMC and given the trends, will continue to trend a little more toward the slower solutions. With this in mind, will spread pcpn in from the northwest Friday night, sagging the highest categorical pops from our northwest late Friday Night across our southeast into Saturday afternoon. It looks like any instability will remain pretty limited but both the GFS and ECMWF are suggesting some very weak mucapes advecting up into our area ahead of the front on Saturday. Will therefore continue with a mention of a slight chance for thunder along and just ahead of the front. The pressure gradient will also begin to tighten up later Friday night and into the day on Saturday as an associated strengthening surface low lifts northeast along the front from the western Great Lakes and into southeast Ontario. This will lead to the possibility of some gusty winds during the day on Saturday which may be tempered somewhat by the initial WAA pattern, but should then increase as we get into the CAA behind the front later in the day on Saturday. In the developing southerly flow, temperatures will also be non diurnal Friday night and during the day on Saturday. A much cooler airmass will filter into the area behind the front Saturday night into Sunday. With some lingering lower level moisture and a bit of a fetch off of Lake Michigan, a few snow showers will be possible Saturday night into Sunday morning, especially across our north. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid to upper 30s. We will then transition to more of a zonal flow pattern as we head through early next week but there are some disagreements with the strength of timing of some mainly weak short wave energy moving across the Great Lakes through mid week. Moisture is somewhat limited with this feature but this could lead to some lower end pops Tuesday into Wednesday. Highs through the remainder of the long term period will mainly be in the 40s. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Shower activity has now exited the TAF sites this evening with IFR clouds moving in from the west. The upper level disturbance in association with the surface cold front will push east with a dry slot pushing in from the east. Already on low light this evening the dry wedge can be seen pushing into Indiana. A secondary cold front currently located in far northwestern Illinois is pushing southeast with another MVFR deck right behind it. The clear slot will likely move across all the TAF sites before the MVFR deck comes pushing in. Have gone ahead and timed in the clear slot to the TAFs as well as the corresponding MVFR deck. The MVFR deck will likely make it to KCMH, KLCK, KDAY, and KILN while KCVG and KLUK will be on the fringe. Winds will also remain elevated overnight into Thursday morning thanks to the tight pressure gradient. During the day Thursday the surface low pressure will slowly pull east allowing the gradient to relax. Low level moisture will also be pulling east, but will be slow to erode. KCMH and KLCK will likely be MVFR most of the day Thursday with quicker recovery to VFR across our eastern TAF sites. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings to linger into Thursday. MVFR or IFR ceilings and possibly visibilities possible Friday night into Saturday evening. Gusty winds will be present on Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines/Novak NEAR TERM...Haines/Novak SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Haines

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