Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 201716 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 116 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL THEN DRAW INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... ALTHOUGH VISIBILITIES ARE IMPROVING ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH 9 AM...PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES A QUARTER MILE OR LESS REMAINS AT ABOUT 20 PERCENT OF OUR OBSERVATION SITES. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9 AM...WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ONGOING WHICH SHOULD COVER ANY REMAINING FOGGY LOCATIONS THROUGH 10 AM. AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES RISING SLOWLY INTO THE LOWER 70S THROUGH MIDDAY. AFTER THAT...SOME GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD ACCELERATE WARMING THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 80S AT MOST OF OUT ZONES. LIGHT RAIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE SCIOTO VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING. MODELS DISSIPATE THIS PRECIPITATION BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THAT...ONCE THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF 76 IS REACHED DURING THE AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... EXPECT A DIURNAL TREND TO THE CONVECTION TODAY WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. LOWS WILL BE MILD TONIGHT IN THE WARM AIRMASS WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S WEST TO THE MIDDLE 60S EAST. NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW UPR/MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE UPR MS VLY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS PLACES ILN/S FA AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY WITH READINGS IN THE MID/UPR 80S. WILL LIMIT POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY IN THE FAR EAST. THE UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO EXTEND EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY WITH THE WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM UPR TO HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A DEVELOPING TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MOSTLY MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR. FOG APPEARS LIKELY OVERNIGHT AND AM FORECASTING IFR VSBYS FROM KILN WESTWARD AFTER 06Z WITH MVFR VSBYS EAST OF KILN. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KT THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY ALSO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO THE START OF THE DAY MONDAY. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...LATTO/AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM... AVIATION...LATTO

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.