Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 212013 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 313 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will cross the area tonight, bringing a few showers. Cold and dry weather will arrive Wednesday with high pressure. Dry conditions are forecast for the remainder of this week as the high shifts to the East Coast, while temperatures increase in the southerly flow behind the high.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Cold front pushed by a northwest flow aloft is reaching Western Indiana. The front will progress across Indiana to the ILN area this evening, before moving east overnight. Showers developing along and behind the front will affect mainly northern locations closer to the bulk of forcing and moisture associated with this system. Places south of the Ohio River may see no precip, while the far north is likely to have a few showers, producing up to a tenth of an inch of rainfall. A few snow flakes could mix in toward the end of the event as readings drop toward freezing, before falling a few more degrees to overnight lows in the upper 20s to low 30s by 6 am. Winds that have gusted over 20 knots will begin to subside this evening as mixing decreases.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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A cold and dry airmass associated with high pressure extending from Northern Mexico to the Great Lakes will provide dry weather Wednesday and Wednesday night. Model sounding profiles show mostly sunny/mostly clear skies, with sky cover consisting of a few to sct cumulus on Wednesday that should decrease by late afternoon under further subsidence and drying of the airmass, followed by cirrus Wednesday night forming ahead of a weak short wave. Even with abundant sunshine, high temperatures rising only into the upper 30s will be about 12 degrees below normal.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure extending across the area at the beginning of the period will move off to the east. Temperatures will rebound a bit, although probably not quite as much as guidance suggests. As the next system approaches, the pressure gradient will tighten. Gusty southerly winds will bring temperatures back closer to normal on Friday. A cold front will cross the area on Saturday. Moisture is rather limited, thus the chance of precipitation is minimal. There will likely be enough insolation during the day to offset initial cold air advection, so daytime readings should be similar to Friday. Colder air mass will move in for the beginning of next week when high pressure builds in. Temperatures will once again moderate late in the period as high pressure moves east and another cold front approaches.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR to start as high pressure departs east. That may change as a cold front now over NW Indiana crosses TAF sites tonight. Models predict MVFR ceilings for a few hours early tonight along and behind the front as showers develop. CVG and LUK may escape those conditions being farther from the bulk of moisture and forcing to the north. A return to VFR is forecast by Wednesday morning as high pressure builds back in from the west. Winds gusting over 20 knots this afternoon will start to subside this evening as mixing decreases with loss of daytime heating. Direction will shift from southwest to northwest with frontal passage, while speeds drop below 10 knots. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM... AVIATION...Coniglio

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