Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 161120
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
620 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017
Weak high pressure will briefly build into the area today. A
warm front will lift through the region tonight into Friday,
marking the beginning of very warm temperatures through the
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Weak high pressure building into the TN and southern OH valleys
will allow the beginning of increasing warm air advection in
especially the SW forecast area. But the remainder of the region
still under NW flow aloft and under the influence of the strong
upper low beginning to pull off the NE coast. So ample clouds
today in especially Ohio, while SE Indiana/far SW Ohio and
Northern Kentucky will begin return flow as the sharp surface
ridge pushes through. Big question will be just how long the
clouds linger immediately behind the departing upper low.
This of course will influence high temperatures today. Currently
kept a gradient of upper 30s near CMH to upper 40s in the tri
state area, with confidence a little greater in the SW.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Developing warm front to lift through the region through tonight
and into the day Friday, as the center of the narrow surface
ridge pulls east. Lows tonight will begin to rebound in the SW
forecast area to mid 30s as mid clouds linger near the frontal
For Friday, clouds pulling ene with the progression of the
boundary. Friday will bring the beginning of strong WAA with
temperatures into the mid 50s and lows 60s.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A split upper level flow pattern will be in place during the
Friday night into Saturday night time frame. This will feature
an upper level low ejecting east/northeast into the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys while a mid level s/wv skirts across the
northern Great Lakes/southern Canada. Clouds will be on the
increase Friday night into Saturday as the southern system
approaches. It looks like there will be enough deep
moisture/weak ascent pulled northward from the low and a weak
front pushing into the southern Great Lakes to keep a chance of
showers over southern locations Saturday afternoon and night.
Temperatures will remain warm for mid/late February with highs
in the upper 50s to lower 60s expected on Saturday.
For the period Sunday into Monday, long range models agree that a
mid level ridge will build and shift east into the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley. Dry weather along with continued warm readings in the
lower to mid 60s can be expected.
Long range models then diverge by the end of the extended period
(Tuesday into Wednesday). The discrepancy revolves around how strong
s/wv energy will be to flatten mid level ridge across our region,
which will determine if a weak cold front lays out west/east across
the area, or whether the front remains near/just north of the
forecast area. Due to low confidence, have kept the threat for
showers/PoPs low through the period. However, cloud cover was
increased during the period. Temperatures for the most part will
remain in the lower to mid 60s, except for far northern locations
which may cool back into the upper 50s.
.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Our region will be between a departing large scale mid level
trough to our east and a mid level ridging building into the
Plains to our west for today. CAA stratocumulus near the
KCMH/KLCK terminals will gradually shift off to the east, while
mid level clouds move east/northeast through the rest of the
For tonight into Friday, the mid level ridge will build east
into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the surface, a warm
front will pivot northeast across the region. An embedded
disturbance will rotate southeast down the east side of the
ridge axis overnight, which will spread more mid and high level
clouds into the area. Clouds will scatter during Friday morning.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected.
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