Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KILN 161401
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1001 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Southerly winds will bring increasing warmth for the early part of
the week. A cold front will sag into the region Tuesday night and
stall over the area until Wednesday night and Thursday when a low
pressure system travels northeast along the boundary.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Short wave will track east across the Great Lakes today. Showers
and thunderstorms ahead of this system will track east and brush
by the northern counties this afternoon. Current fcst has expected
rain coverage and pops okay and just a minor tweeking needed. No
changes to rest of fcst elements. Southerly winds will be a bit
gusty today. MOS looks reasonable for highs.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Showers may linger into the evening across far northern counties.
Otherwise dry and unseasonably warm conditions will prevail
through the period. Forecast area will be on the northern
periphery of an upper ridge. Moderate low level southerly flow
will persist. A cold front will approach the northwest counties
late on Tuesday but it looks like any precipitation will be along
and behind it. Temperatures will be progressively warmer each day
and night. Have stayed close to guidance for lows. Went closer to
warmer guidance for Monday highs and stayed above MOS for Tuesday
highs. These temperatures will be near record highs.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front will sag into the forecast area Tuesday night and
stall across the region. Forcing does not look particularly strong
but cannot rule out some showers near this boundary. A short wave
will deepen as it moves out of the Plains and towards the Ohio
Valley. This will induce a surface low that will strengthen and
travel along the stalled front. Chance for rain will increase
Wednesday night and continue into Thursday as the low approaches
and crosses the area. Showers will diminish Thursday night as the
system heads off to the east. Secondary short wave will drop into
the mean upper trough on Saturday.
Clouds and precipitation will result in lower day time temperatures
Wednesday and Thursday...although still above normal. By the end
of the week readings will be closer to...if not a bit below...normal.
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
River valley fog at KLUK has improved to MVFR conditions with the
mid deck of clouds. Conditions are expected to continue to improve
this morning at KLUK with VFR conditions returning by shortly
after the start of the TAF period.
A weak system will move across the area today and into tonight.
Moisture is limited with this system, however did add a VCSH
mention to KDAY, KCMH, and KLCK. Winds will pick up during the day
with wind gusts around 20 to 25 knots. Winds will subside this
River valley fog will again be possible at KLUK tonight, however
some cloud cover may mitigate this.
OUTLOOK...MVFR Ceilings and visibilities possible Thursday. Gusty
winds likely Monday and Tuesday afternoon with wind gusts of 25
to 35 knots possible.