Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 130551 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 151 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the southeast United States will continue to pull southeast while a cold front and low pressure system organize over the Mississippi River Valley. Warm air will continue to ride northeast into the Ohio Valley Wednesday and Thursday, along with slowly increasing moisture leading to the threat of a few showers and thunderstorms especially Thursday and Friday. As the low and cold front shift east of the area this weekend, a much cooler and drier airmass will move in. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Quiescent night with just high and perhaps some mid clouds passing across the area as a short wave moves east. Light southerly winds will persist. Made some minor adjustments to blend in latest observations, but overall forecast remains on track. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... As mentioned above, expect any residual activity tied to the advancing wave in Kentucky to begin to peter out and dissipate to our southwest on Wednesday morning as the low level moisture transport axis begins to lag owing to stronger height falls digging the Intermountain West. May be some residual mid/high clouds early in the morning, but plenty of sunshine is again expected. A residual arm of the now-bifurcated low level moisture transport axis will continue to bring a little better quality of moisture into the Tri-State and up the western side of the ILN forecast area, but forecast soundings remain pretty stable and the moisture shallow, and rain chances in ensemble/deterministic runs have pulled back with the 12Z suite of data. Should be another very warm day with highs approaching 70F, and the modest southwesterly flow may mix out shallow moisture keeping dewpoints in the lower 40s, but am not expecting any significant fire weather concerns at this moment. By Wednesday evening and into the overnight, overall low level flow begins to increase into a developing isentropic lift/convergence zone that sets up across Indiana/Ohio as time wears on. Will likely see the chances of showers and storms begin to increase through the night, but there is very low confidence on what latitude this activity could fire. The better convergence/transport signal is still west of the area, so keeping rain chances in the 30-50% range seems fine for now, centered on the back half of the night. With increasing clouds and better moisture flowing into the area, overnight lows will be considerably more mild on Wednesday night vs previous nights. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Our area will be well into the warm sector during the day on Thursday with broad southwest flow aloft. This will allow for good moisture transport up into the region Thursday into Thursday night ahead of an advancing cold front. Surface dewpoints will be on the increase through the day, but the axis of highest dewpoints will remain off to our west, closer to the cold front. As a result, the better instability will also remain back to our west through much of the day, before increasing from the west Thursday evening and into the overnight hours. By this time though, there should be a decreasing trend in the overall instability as we head into the overnight. Will continue with an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms from the west, mainly for Thursday afternoon, with higher pops then overspreading our area Thursday night into Friday morning as the cold front moves in. Deep layer shear will be on the increase ahead of the front so a few stronger storms will be possible, primarily Thursday evening across our western areas. Damaging winds would be the main threat with any stronger storms. Pcpn will taper off from the northwest through the day on Friday as we get on the backside of the cold front. In the warm sector on Thursday, temperatures will remain well above normal with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Highs on Friday will range from the upper 50s northwest to the mid 60s in the southeast. Weak surface high pressure will briefly build into the region Friday night into Saturday as temperatures cool off. Highs on Saturday and Sunday will be mostly in the 50s. A low pressure system moving across southern Ontario and the Great Lakes may lead to a few rain showers across our area Sunday and then a chance for rain and snow showers on Monday. Temperatures will continue to cool off with highs on Monday only in the upper 30s to mid 40s. High pressure and dry conditions will build back into the region on Tuesday. Temperatures will remain seasonably cool though with highs on Tuesday in the low to mid 40s. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Expect mid and high clouds across the region for the overnight hours. A few cu will be possible during the day today. Winds will pick up some for the daytime hours, however wind gusts should be isolated and therefore left out of the TAFs. A few rain showers will start to work into the longer KCVG TAF at the end of the TAF period. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings will be possible late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. MVFR ceilings and visibilities likely Thursday night into Friday night with IFR possible. Thunderstorms also possible Thursday into Friday. Gusty winds on Thursday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Binau NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...Binau LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...

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