Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 161120 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 620 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure will briefly build into the area today. A warm front will lift through the region tonight into Friday, marking the beginning of very warm temperatures through the forecast period. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Weak high pressure building into the TN and southern OH valleys will allow the beginning of increasing warm air advection in especially the SW forecast area. But the remainder of the region still under NW flow aloft and under the influence of the strong upper low beginning to pull off the NE coast. So ample clouds today in especially Ohio, while SE Indiana/far SW Ohio and Northern Kentucky will begin return flow as the sharp surface ridge pushes through. Big question will be just how long the clouds linger immediately behind the departing upper low. This of course will influence high temperatures today. Currently kept a gradient of upper 30s near CMH to upper 40s in the tri state area, with confidence a little greater in the SW. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Developing warm front to lift through the region through tonight and into the day Friday, as the center of the narrow surface ridge pulls east. Lows tonight will begin to rebound in the SW forecast area to mid 30s as mid clouds linger near the frontal boundary. For Friday, clouds pulling ene with the progression of the boundary. Friday will bring the beginning of strong WAA with temperatures into the mid 50s and lows 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A split upper level flow pattern will be in place during the Friday night into Saturday night time frame. This will feature an upper level low ejecting east/northeast into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys while a mid level s/wv skirts across the northern Great Lakes/southern Canada. Clouds will be on the increase Friday night into Saturday as the southern system approaches. It looks like there will be enough deep moisture/weak ascent pulled northward from the low and a weak front pushing into the southern Great Lakes to keep a chance of showers over southern locations Saturday afternoon and night. Temperatures will remain warm for mid/late February with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s expected on Saturday. For the period Sunday into Monday, long range models agree that a mid level ridge will build and shift east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Dry weather along with continued warm readings in the lower to mid 60s can be expected. Long range models then diverge by the end of the extended period (Tuesday into Wednesday). The discrepancy revolves around how strong s/wv energy will be to flatten mid level ridge across our region, which will determine if a weak cold front lays out west/east across the area, or whether the front remains near/just north of the forecast area. Due to low confidence, have kept the threat for showers/PoPs low through the period. However, cloud cover was increased during the period. Temperatures for the most part will remain in the lower to mid 60s, except for far northern locations which may cool back into the upper 50s. && .AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Our region will be between a departing large scale mid level trough to our east and a mid level ridging building into the Plains to our west for today. CAA stratocumulus near the KCMH/KLCK terminals will gradually shift off to the east, while mid level clouds move east/northeast through the rest of the terminals. For tonight into Friday, the mid level ridge will build east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the surface, a warm front will pivot northeast across the region. An embedded disturbance will rotate southeast down the east side of the ridge axis overnight, which will spread more mid and high level clouds into the area. Clouds will scatter during Friday morning. OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDR NEAR TERM...JDR SHORT TERM...JDR LONG TERM...Hickman AVIATION...Hickman

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