Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 161401 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1001 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Southerly winds will bring increasing warmth for the early part of the week. A cold front will sag into the region Tuesday night and stall over the area until Wednesday night and Thursday when a low pressure system travels northeast along the boundary. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Short wave will track east across the Great Lakes today. Showers and thunderstorms ahead of this system will track east and brush by the northern counties this afternoon. Current fcst has expected rain coverage and pops okay and just a minor tweeking needed. No changes to rest of fcst elements. Southerly winds will be a bit gusty today. MOS looks reasonable for highs.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Showers may linger into the evening across far northern counties. Otherwise dry and unseasonably warm conditions will prevail through the period. Forecast area will be on the northern periphery of an upper ridge. Moderate low level southerly flow will persist. A cold front will approach the northwest counties late on Tuesday but it looks like any precipitation will be along and behind it. Temperatures will be progressively warmer each day and night. Have stayed close to guidance for lows. Went closer to warmer guidance for Monday highs and stayed above MOS for Tuesday highs. These temperatures will be near record highs. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A cold front will sag into the forecast area Tuesday night and stall across the region. Forcing does not look particularly strong but cannot rule out some showers near this boundary. A short wave will deepen as it moves out of the Plains and towards the Ohio Valley. This will induce a surface low that will strengthen and travel along the stalled front. Chance for rain will increase Wednesday night and continue into Thursday as the low approaches and crosses the area. Showers will diminish Thursday night as the system heads off to the east. Secondary short wave will drop into the mean upper trough on Saturday. Clouds and precipitation will result in lower day time temperatures Wednesday and Thursday...although still above normal. By the end of the week readings will be closer to...if not a bit below...normal. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... River valley fog at KLUK has improved to MVFR conditions with the mid deck of clouds. Conditions are expected to continue to improve this morning at KLUK with VFR conditions returning by shortly after the start of the TAF period. A weak system will move across the area today and into tonight. Moisture is limited with this system, however did add a VCSH mention to KDAY, KCMH, and KLCK. Winds will pick up during the day with wind gusts around 20 to 25 knots. Winds will subside this evening. River valley fog will again be possible at KLUK tonight, however some cloud cover may mitigate this. OUTLOOK...MVFR Ceilings and visibilities possible Thursday. Gusty winds likely Monday and Tuesday afternoon with wind gusts of 25 to 35 knots possible. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Padgett SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...Novak is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.