Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 131808 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 208 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS SE OF INTERSTATE 71 AND 30 TO 35 KNOTS ALONG AND NW OF INTERSTATE 71. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S TODAY. 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE FAIRLY DRY HOWEVER GENERALLY HAVE VALUES GREATER THAN 8 PERCENT AND EXPECT MOST AREAS TO STAY ABOVE 8 PERCENT. RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THESE CONDITIONS THERE IS AN ENHANCED FIRE RISK HOWEVER RED FLAG CRITERIA DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE REACHED. DUE TO THIS WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT FIRE WX RISK IN THE HWO AND WITH THE SPS HOWEVER WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR PCPN TO SLOWLY OVERSPREAD OUR WESTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND THEN THE REST OF OUR FA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING TONIGHT AND CLOUDS THICKENING UP...WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. INSTABILITY IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT SO WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THUNDER MENTION TO JUST A CHANCE WITH OTHERWISE CATEGORICAL POPS. EXPECT ANY THUNDER CHANCE TO DECREASE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT PASSES. HOWEVER...POST FRONTAL PCPN WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LAGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY PUSHES EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. WITH MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL HAVE NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOWS THEN DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 30S MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PCPN TO MIX WITH AND POSSIBLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OFF THE GFS ARE SUGGESTING AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTH. OBVIOUSLY GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS...BUT THE SNOW WILL BE FALLING AT NIGHT WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH ACCUMULATIONS ON ELEVATED SURFACES. FOR NOW WILL LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATION TO A HALF INCH OR LESS...PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST FA. PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS OFF THE NAM ARE ONLY GIVING HIGHS IN THE 30S FOR TUESDAY. WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT COLD GIVEN THE APRIL SUN...BUT WILL STILL NUDGE DOWN TEMPS FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A DRY PERIOD IS IN THE OFFING UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY ON FRIDAY...NOSING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. OF COURSE ONLY THE GFS IS SHOWING THIS SCENARIO WHERE THE EURO IS DRY. HPC HAS FAVORED THE MORE ACTIVE GFS AT THIS MOMENT IN TIME IN ITS GRAPHIC BUT DOES NOT NOTE ANY ELEVATED CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THEIR FORECAST. OPTED TO LEAN WETTER TOWARDS THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH A RIDGE OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND A GENERAL SOUTHEAST FLOW WARMING THE OHIO VALLEY A LITTLE EACH DAY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST AROUND 30 KNOTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. A SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE TAF SITES LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND THEREFORE HELD OFF ON ANY THUNDER MENTION UNTIL THE END OF THE KDAY TAF AND IN THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE KCVG TAF. WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON MONDAY TO AROUND 35 TO 40 KNOTS AT TIMES. MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL EXCEPT THE LONGER KCVG TAF. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AT KCVG DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...FRANKS AVIATION...NOVAK

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