Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 071741 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1241 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Snow showers and flurries will be possible today as an upper level disturbance and cold front traverse the region. High pressure and chilly weather on Friday will be followed by a cold front with accumulating snow for Saturday. Cold temperatures are forecast to persist on Sunday in the northwest flow behind the front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Flurries have developed in weak convergence and instability ahead of a cold front currently near ILN. Expect flurries and isolated snow showers to persist and even expand across eastern counties under a slight increase of instability, before exhibiting a diminishing trend this afternoon as drier and more stable air starts to work in behind the boundary as it travels east. Temperatures are tricky with cold advection working against a weak December sun. Expect nearly steady to slowly rising readings, with highs ranging from the lower 30s in metro areas, the upper 20s northwest, up to the mid and upper 30s southeast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Tonight the heart of the cold air will move over the area and with skies forecast to clear out low temperatures in the teens looks likely. Early Friday morning late Thursday evening wind chills will drop close to 10 degrees F across our northern zones until winds slowly relax. During the day Friday the shortwave will pull east of the area allowing a slight recovery in low level thermal profiles. Highs in the low to mid 30s can be expected with mostly clear skies. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short wave energy will pivot down across the Ohio Valley later Friday night and through the day on Saturday. The models have trended a bit weaker with this feature and a little farther north with the surface wave, taking it across the southern Great Lakes. This should still allow for snow to spread in from the northwest late Friday night and then rotate across our area through the day on Saturday. However, the best chance for snow will be across our north where will go with high likely to categorical pops by Saturday morning. Farther south, will continue to go with likely pops for snow as it still seems some measurable pcpn is likely, but will trim back amounts somewhat. Will generally go with 1 to 2 inches through Saturday along and north of I-70 and then scale back to an inch or less for points to the south. Highs on Saturday will be mainly in the lower 30s. The more widespread snow will taper off through Saturday afternoon as the short wave pushes east but we will get into a fetch off of Lake Michigan for period of time which may maintain some snow shower activity into Saturday evening across parts of our area. Weak ridging will push quickly east across the area Sunday into Sunday night ahead of the next short wave that will move across the area Monday in Monday night. Ahead of this, the low level flow will back some as we head into Monday, leading to some WAA. This will help push highs on Monday into the upper 30s to lower 40s. As the short wave moves in, pcpn will overspread our area Monday into Monday night. Pcpn may start off as a rain/snow mix or all rain across the south on Monday. However, good CAA will spread back in from the northwest later Monday afternoon and into Monday night, allowing for pcpn to change over to all snow before tapering off later Monday night. This colder airmass will then remain in place through at least mid week with highs both Tuesday and Wednesday in the upper 20s to lower 30s. In northwest flow aloft, it looks like some weak short waves may drop down across the region at times so will hang on to some lower end pops for snow showers through the remainder of the long term period. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A cold front is east of TAF sites. A few flurries may linger for the rest of this afternoon. Otherwise, expect no more precip through the end of the TAF period with a ridge of high pressure extending up the Ohio River Valley. Ceilings that are sporadically MVFR should become VFR by this evening and should remain so as downward motion takes hold behind the cold front, causing clouds to reduce in coverage. As skies become mostly clear tonight through the end of the forecast, northwest winds gusting near 20 knots this afternoon will subside under 10 knots this evening with a shift in direction to southwest. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Saturday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Haines SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Coniglio

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