Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 120542 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 142 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will cross the region tonight with scattered showers and thunderstorms found along it this evening. High pressure will build in behind it and bring dry weather Saturday and Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... A cold front will continue to move through the region overnight. Showers and storms associated with this front will gradually diminish in coverage overnight, however some showers will linger across the south. Before they diminish, cannot rule out an isolated strong to severe storm early in the overnight hours. Went close to guidance for low temperatures overnight. If there is some clearing, especially across northwestern portions of the forecast area then patchy fog will be possible. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... The cold front is expected to be situated over the southeastern CWA by daybreak Saturday, and an isolated shower or thunderstorm remains possible in this area for the bulk of the morning hours. Earlier models that support convection were showing a higher chance of storms, while the bulk of the remaining models are dry in the CWA for daylight hours Saturday. This is the favored solution although a hedge was put in the forecast for Lewis and Scioto counties to account for the model differences. Highs Saturday will be in a dry and pleasant airmass, reaching the mid 70s north to around 80 along the Ohio River and southwards. Fair weather cumulus may be a bit more prolific given the cooler air being brought in aloft during the afternoon. Otherwise, skies will clear in the evening and temperatures will drop into the middle to upper 50s across the board. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The period will start with zonal flow aloft and a surface ridge in place. A short wave will translate from the Plains across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys later Monday into Tuesday. This will cause a wave to develop along the old frontal boundary south of the region, but trends are for any precipitation from this to stay south of the forecast area. Upper ridging will work into the area which will allow for temperatures to rise to near normal for the middle of the week. The ridge will break down as the flow transitions to west northwest. Disturbances moving through the flow along with increasing low level moisture will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms for the end of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop along a slow moving cold front. Went with MVFR and -TSRA at LCK and CMH for the first 3 hours. Other sites may escape direct hits. Looks like front will finally pass TAF sites within the next few hours, bringing an end to precip. BR is expected to form in humid air near the surface. Once BR burns off by mid morning, VFR should persist through the end of the forecast as high pressure and dry air move in. Winds shifting to north will stay around 10 knots or less. OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM... AVIATION...Coniglio

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.