Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 181731 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 131 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Weak zonal flow aloft will settle over the eastern U.S. in the wake of a weak shortwave exiting the Great Lakes region early today. Surface patterns will be muddled until winds turn southerly on Saturday ahead of a developing cold front. This front will cross the region early Sunday morning and usher in a cooler, drier, and overall more pleasant airmass for early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Sratus and fog has expanded in the western fcst area the past couple of hours. However appears that surface visbys for the most part are higher than 1/4 mile. Thus will keep SPS in place for now with no advisory. Fog and stratus should slowly lift through late morning. Widely scattered showers already occuring just northwest of CWA. Current pops look good with boundary across northern areas. With increased cloud cover have tweeked highs down a bit but did not want to go too much for now as any sun could cause quick rise. No other changes past today period. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Any lingering showers or thunderstorms will be waning through the evening and overnight. Cloud cover will clear in spots but a generally partly to mostly cloudy overnight is expected with lows only dropping to within a degree or two of 70. Friday will be similar to Thursday with daytime heating driving a low chance - scattered to isolated thunderstorms, peaking in the late day. Sky cover overnight will again be pc/mc with lows dropping into the upper 60s. Saturday will see another day of low chances of storms primarily driven by daytime heating. However, this will be the first day where the surface will see return flow set up ahead of the next cold front. Storms immediately ahead of the front will push in as early as late day, more likely in the evening. Storms will continue overnight and a discernible back edge may occur in the west and northwest with the frontal passage before daybreak Sunday. With weak forcing and little focus it is difficult to narrow down an area with much higher probability than any other regarding the afternoon and early evening convection during this period. MOS blend seemed in the ballpark with highs...but continued to shade a bit warmer than guidance for lows. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Upper trough will deepen across the upper Mississippi Valley early in the period and then swing through the Great Lakes Sunday and Monday. This will cause a cold front to push through the forecast area Saturday night into Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms should become more widespread later Saturday into Saturday night. Precipitable water values will increase back over 2 inches which could result in some storms producing heavy rainfall. High pressure will build in for the first half of next week bringing a drier airmass across the region. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Fog and stratus has lifted with CU clouds devloping across CWA. Some MVFR cigs still around briefly for early afternoon becoming mainly VFR. Boundary across the north already producing scattered rain showers with thunder possible. Will keep vicinity shower in northern TAF sites into the evening. Main fcst problem is extent of fog and stratus again late tonight/Friday morning. Have opted to not go as far as guidance but indicated the realm of possibility with visbys and cigs indicated. Exception is LUK where more confidence is given. Should see any fog and stratus lift through the morning Friday. Light winds through fcst period. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM...Franks/Padgett SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM... AVIATION...Padgett

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