Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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447 FXUS61 KILN 220551 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 151 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak disturbance will move across the area late this afternoon and this evening. A high pressure center will move from the upper Great Lakes Wednesday morning into the mid Atlantic states Thursday evening. Southerly winds on the back side of the high will result in temperatures warming above normal for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Sheared out upper level disturbance to tracking thru the Ohio Valley resulted in sprinkles and a few showers this evening. This system is weakening and shifting east of ILN/s FA. Therefore, have updated to remove pcpn from the forecast tonight. Secondary cold front pushing south across northern Ohio will continue pushing south thru the Ohio Valley overnight. Clouds will diminish with skies clearing with the passage of this front. Northwest will become north and increase with gusts of 20 to 25 mph possible. Temperatures will drop to lows from the lower 20s north to the upper 20s south. Will continue a freeze warning along and south of the Ohio river with the early growing season. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... High pressure will build into the region through the period. There will be plenty of sun on Wednesday. Some high and mid clouds will push in from the southwest on Wednesday night but this will do little to keep temperatures. Temperatures will be quite cool with temperatures more than 10 degrees below normal both periods. Another freeze warning will be needed Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Upper air pattern will generally feature a ridge in place across the Eastern CONUS. Models indicate that there will be plenty of short wave energy moving up the western flank of the ridge to provide forcing for a few rounds of unsettled weather. Surface high will be retreating east on Thursday while low pressure develops far to the west. Showers may affect mainly northern locations Thursday night in a warm frontal zone of isentropic lift extending through the Great Lakes. Dry, mild and breezy conditions are expected Friday after the boundary lifts north, leaving the ILN area squarely in the warm sector. The large and potent low pressure system will travel to the Mississippi Valley Saturday, then to the Western Great Lakes on Sunday. Strong moisture transport and lift ahead of the low will produce showers and thunderstorms, some with heavy downpours. As the low weakens while moving into a less favorable environment aloft, another low following from the west will allow only a brief respite from precip early Monday, before showers and thunderstorms become likely again late Monday into Tuesday. High pressure and drier air may arrive late Tuesday. Look for slightly below normal highs around 50 on Thursday. A period featuring primarily warm advection on a southerly flow will bring highs up to the 60s to low 70s Friday through Tuesday, about 5 to 10 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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High pressure will build southward into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today. Other than some FEW-SCT stratocumulus moving off Lake Huron and Lake Erie into central Ohio, skies will be mainly clear. Gusty north winds between 20 and 25 knots will gradually shift north northeast by afternoon with gustiness subsiding. For tonight, the center of the high will move southeast, settling over the northern/central Appalachians by 12Z. Low level flow will veer east. Some mid and high level clouds will spill into the region from the west/northwest as moisture will be located in the northwest flow aloft. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities likely Saturday afternoon into Sunday along with a chance of thunderstorms.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ077>079-081- 088. KY...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for KYZ089>100. IN...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for INZ073>075-080.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...Hickman

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