Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 182055 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 355 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE AND A VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT. A DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. MORE COLD WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE RETURN OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AREA IS IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. IN THIS SCENARIO...WE ARE EXPERIENCING BRISK WEST WINDS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH OUR RECORD COLD AIRMASS TO PRODUCE BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS. WILL CONTINUE MENTION ABNORMALLY COLD WIND CHILLS IN HWO FOR THESE SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 9 TO 14...WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS MINUS 7. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES HAVE DEVELOPED IN SHALLOW MOISTURE AHEAD OF A VORT MAX. EXPECT THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE VORT MAX MOVES EAST...LEAVING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVELING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS RESULTING FROM A MINOR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND PVA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS AN INCH BY THURSDAY MORNING IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS. HIGHS REACHING THE 30S WEDNESDAY WILL SEEM RELATIVELY MILD COMPARED WITH THE 20S THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE ON THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP A WARMING TREND. OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE EVENING WITH A SURFACE WIND INCREASING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH THE WARMER AIR WILL COME THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT I FEEL THE CHANCES FOR THIS WILL DECREASE A BIT EACH SUCCESSIVE FORECAST. THAT IS UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN A STRONG UPPER LOW BECOMES NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST TO OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH ILLINOIS AND LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OCCURRING IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT COULD SPARK SOME SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS TO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON TUESDAY AND BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE FORECAST. THIS COOLER AIRMASS WOULD ALSO SUPPORT SNOW IF ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST N OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH HEART OF THE COLD AIR OVER OHIO TODAY. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS AFTN WITH MVFR CIGS LKLY ACRS KDAY/KCMH/KLCK. THESE CLOUDS BETWEEN 2500 AND 3500 FEET SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MID CLOUDS EARLY WED MORNING AS CAA TRANSITIONS TO WAA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF FCST. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 23 KTS TODAY. THE GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AROUND 23Z WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KTS. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. && CLIMATE... RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES ON NOVEMBER 18 CVG...26 DEGREES...1951 CMH...26 DEGREES...1903 DAY...27 DEGREES...1951 AND 1903 && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...FRANKS AVIATION...AR CLIMATE...

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