Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 171421 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1021 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH AN AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ERODING DUE TO GOOD WAA AHEAD OF NEXT DIGGING SYSTEM. EXPECT TO SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THRU REMAINDER OF MORNING INTO THE AFTN. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH COLD FRONT OVER IL PUSHING THRU ILN/S FA THIS AFTN. FRONT COMES THRU DRY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH LKLY. TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S TODAY ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS A SHARP H5 S/W SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...CAA WILL DRIVE CLOUDS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION. ON SATURDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING DOWN INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL OHIO. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE E OF THE REGION BY 00Z SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL MEAN A GOOD CHANCE OF FROST FOR MUCH OF THE FA. WILL ADJUST THE HWO TO INCREASE THE FROST MENTION. WITH THE HIGH OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY...THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR SUNDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 45 TO 50. COOLER AIR AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEARING SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE REGION ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 30S. UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 30S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... QUICK MOVING S/WV TO DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY AS THE MID/UPR PATTERN BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED WITH EACH RUN OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PUSH AND THEN THE LINGERING MID LEVEL TROUGH KEEPS PRECIPITATION POSSIBILITIES IN ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN FCST AREA...CENTRAL/SC OHIO AND NE KENTUCKY LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. THIS LOW BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED AS IT APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY WED EVENING WITH AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE TAKING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR LATE WED AND THU. GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR LATE TUE INTO THU WITH THE RETURN OF NW FLOW IN THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SC IS SLOWLY CONTINUING TO PUSH E THROUGH FCST AREA THIS MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING OCCASIONAL CIGS OVER WRN TAF SITES OF KDAY/KCVG/KLUK. H8 WAA WILL KICK IN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY AS A WEAK THERMAL RIDGE CROSSES AND THEN CAA SETS UP FOR THE LATER AFTERNOON AND SHOULD RESULT IN A BLANKETING SC DECK IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. THIS SC MAY TAKE LONGER TO LOWER OVER KCVG/KLUK...BUT AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEY WILL DROP ACCORDINGLY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST WHICH WILL BRING SC DECK BACK IN OVERNIGHT...LOWERING INTO THE LOWER END OF VFR AND POSSIBLY INTO IFR. VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A DECENT WIND KEEPING UP OVERNIGHT. .OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...JDR AVIATION...FRANKS

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