Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 301959 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 359 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF ILLINOIS LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS OHIO. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS TENNESSEE FROM MISSOURI LOW PRESSURE. AS THE LOW MOVES TO ILLINOIS TONIGHT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE ILN FA. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EVIDENT ON RADAR WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTH AS THE MAIN SWATH OF MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PUSHED NORTH AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. CONVECTION WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE FROM EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY INCREASES SOMEWHAT ALONG AND BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL VARY WITH RESPECT TO WARM FRONTAL LOCATION...WITH 6 AM READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60 SOUTH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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A LULL IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY WHEN THE WARM FRONT AND INITIAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA. THAT WILL CHANGE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRAVEL ROUGHLY ALONG I-70 THROUGH INDIANA AND OHIO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CARRYING A RATHER IMPRESSIVE SWATH OF MOISTURE AND LIFT. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL HELP BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 70S...WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASED LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY. CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG WILL BE ATTAINED...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING DELTA THETA E VALUES EXCEEDING 20 KELVIN...AND WITH A POTENT MID LEVEL JET AIDING STORM TOP DIVERGENCE...SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES TO PENNSYLVANIA.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH AN INITIAL SFC WAVE PUSHING EAST EARLY MONDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH MID LEVEL TROF LAGGING. ALL NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS HOLD ONTO PCPN LONGER...SO HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS ACRS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THRU THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM 60 NORTH TO 65 SOUTH. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A TEMPORARY DRY PERIOD LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. READINGS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO NEAR 70 SOUTH. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH NRN STREAM TROF SHARPENING UP AND DIGGING SOUTH AT MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU ILN/S FA WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST...SO AT THIS TIME HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP PCPN MENTION TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS WED FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO AROUND 70 SOUTH. DIGGING TROF DEVELOPS INTO DEEP LARGE CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THRU AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS IN THE FCST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH THE SOME EVIDENCE THAT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THIS LARGE LOW. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED FOR DRY SOLN SATURDAY. TEMP WISE...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS LOW...BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH. READINGS WILL ONLY MODERATE A LTL SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH THE UPPER 60S SOUTH.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DUE TO WAA/MOIST ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL JET CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR. FOR THIS EVENING...WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA...AND THEN RIPPLE EAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOULD BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 03Z AND 08Z. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO WANE ONCE THE DISTURBANCE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST AND REGION BECOMES WARM SECTORED. WILL HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS/POSSIBLE STORMS WITH IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES PREDOMINATING IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH SUNRISE. ON SUNDAY...DIURNAL HEATING WILL SLOW LIFT MIST/LOW CEILINGS BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 18Z. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE INT THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO BEGIN ADVANCING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HICKMAN

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