Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 300131 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 931 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... CONVECTION HAS WANED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS EVENING...AS WAS REASONABLY EXPECTED GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND DIURNAL NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY. TO THE WEST...AN AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE AND GREATER DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT IS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME SHOWERS AROUND FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MORNING. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS NOT APPEARING LIKELY TO DROP MUCH (IF AT ALL) OVERNIGHT...MIN TEMPS WERE RAISED BY AROUND A DEGREE FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION > WITH THE FAIRLY WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA...MORE MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FCST AREA. THIS IS THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY...SO HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THERE...WHILE MAINLY AIRMASS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. LEFT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE LINGERING BOUNDARY. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... WITH THE H5 TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE...SHOULD BE RENEWED CONVECTION...WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN FCST AREA BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE AREA AGAIN DIMINISHING WITH DIURNAL PATTERN. RIDGING TO BEGIN BUILDING IN FOR MONDAY...SO JUST ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN FCST AREA ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER...AND MORE PERSISTENT MID 80S FOR MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA. LOWS CONTINUING IN THE MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDING JUST TO OUR EAST TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A POP UP AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACRS ILN/S WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S. S/W TO DROP SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AT MID WEEK WITH RIDGE AXIS RE-ESTABLISHING TO OUR WEST. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN. WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED TO OUR WEST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...A NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY. ENHANCED FORCING WILL BE LACKING BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. DO TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING HAVE LIMITED POPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE AFTN. WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S. THE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD EAST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE...WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN PERHAPS PERSISTING FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS NEAR DAYTON AND COLUMBUS. HOWEVER...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. WITH RAIN HAVING AFFECTED MOST OF THE TAF SITES...AND MOIST CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. TOMORROW MAY LOOK SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH ADDITIONAL DISORGANIZED STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES NEAR TERM...JDR/HATZOS/SITES SHORT TERM...JDR LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HATZOS

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