Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 260623 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 223 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BOUNDARY AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH ON MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND A VERY WARM AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EASE ITS WAY INTO THE NRN FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WEAK CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MAY STILL RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AS SUGGESTED BY VARIOUS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN A HUMID AIRMASS...LOWS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 65 AND 70. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS THE FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON ALIGNED ROUGHLY ALONG I-71. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE CAPE BUT WEAK WIND FIELDS. FOR MONDAY...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS TO THE VICINITY OF THE OHIO RIVER...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS TO NORTHERN OHIO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS CLOSE TO THE FRONT. NORTHERN LOCATIONS SHOULD BE PROTECTED FROM PRECIP BY THE DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MID LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO BUILD NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY. HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES WILL LEAD TO A WARM UP OF TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT LOOKS TO BE TO OUR SW BUT A STRAY STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURG THE AFTN. DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH DRY FCST. NRN PORTION OF MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BECOME FLATTENED AS TROF MOVES THRU SRN CANADA/NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO PUSH THRU THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF PCPN THRU SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGH CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION THAT IS DYING OUT AS IT APPROACHES THE OHIO BORDER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. DID NOT CONTINUE THE PREVAILING BR IN TAFS BUT THINK THAT A BRIEF VSBY REDUCTION IS POSSIBLE AT DAYBREAK AT KLUK. FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE TAF SITES TODAY IS VERY WEAK AND TSTORMS ARE DYING OUT ALONG IT AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME...AND ARE EXPECTED TO RE-FIRE IN THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AIR WILL BE RAPIDLY USHERED IN AS THE FRONT PASSES AND WILL MARK A DEFINITIVE END TO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND LIKELY BE A CLEARING LINE WITH LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER. GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE AND LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIP...HAVE CONTINUED VCSH DESCRIPTORS AT THE TAF SITES BUT USED A TEMPO SHOWER IN THE LATE DAY IN THE CINCY AND COLUMBUS METRO TAF SITES GIVEN THAT THE FRONT WILL BE THERE A LITTLE LATER WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...FRANKS

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