Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 232332 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 732 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... UPDATED TO INCLUDE DELAWARE COUNTY IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE SNOWFALL VALUES LESS THAN THE 3 INCH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE NORTH DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY DUE TO SNOW MOVING THROUGH DURING RUSH HOUR...HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES REDUCING VSBYS...AND VALUES JUST UNDER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOUTH OF THIS AREA MORE SLEET WILL MIX IN AND REDUCE SNOWFALL VALUES. DECIDED TO HAVE A CORRIDOR OF SPS JUST SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY AREA. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES THE PUSH ACROSS THE FA AND ENCOUNTERS DRY AIR. DUE TO THIS...GRADUALLY DECREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. SOME RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FA. THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE HAVE AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS TIME. DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHOWERS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL MOVE OFF AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING HIGHS WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE DAY. 12Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT IN SWINGING A CLIPPER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE BUT IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA WILL GET SOME LIGHT SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY...BUT READINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVIER PCPN IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE I-71 CORRIDOR AND PUSHING EAST AT ABOUT 30-40 KNOTS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN TO CLEAR ALL OF THE TAF SITES WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. IN THE MEANTIME...PCPN AT KCMH/KLCK WILL BE PRIMARILY SNOW WITH SOME SLEET POSSIBLY MIXING IN...TRENDING TO MORE OF A SLEET/SNOW MIX DOWN TOWARD KILN. VSBYS WILL OCCASIONALLY DIP INTO IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE HEAVIER PCPN. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS LINGERING SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTH. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS IT DOES...EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA IN THE LATER PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026- 034-035-042>046-051-052. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM... AVIATION...JGL

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.