Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 190543 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 143 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A hot and humid airmass will be in place through the week with increasing thunderstorm chances towards the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Few high based cumulus could linger through the night. Otherwise light and variable winds will continue. Forecast lows look reasonable. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Weak boundary will push southward on Wednesday. Cannot rule out an isolated shower or storm, however generally expect dry conditions. In addition expect another warm day with high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. Although heat index values will reach into the middle to upper 90s across portions of the area, expect them to remain below heat advisory criteria levels of a heat index of 100. Dry conditions will be in place for Wednesday night. Went close to guidance values for low temperatures with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... For the period Thursday into Friday, a frontal boundary will stall out near the southern Great Lakes while a mid level ridge axis extends from the Ozarks into the middle Ohio Valley. This setup will bring hot and humid conditions to the region with the threat for at least scattered thunderstorms the closer one gets to the stalled out frontal boundary with weak disturbances ripple southeast within the northwest flow aloft to add some lift. Highs will range from the upper 80s to the lower 90s on Thursday, with lower to mid 90s on Friday. Combining this heat with the humidity, heat indices are forecast to peak into the mid/upper 90s far north with lower 100s possible south. We may end up seeing our first heat advisory for the season for southern locations. Saturday will perhaps see a little more thunderstorm coverage area wide while mid level ridge begins to flatten and becomes suppressed to the south with the aforementioned boundary lingering near our north. Upper 90s to lower 100 heat indices will again be possible on Saturday. Upper level flow begins to become more amplified across southeast Canada and the Great Lakes early next week. This will eventually lead to a mid level trough which will push a cold front southeast through the region. As is usually the case, there are strength and timing differences among long term models and a blend was used. Temperatures will show a downward trend through the period along with lower humidity values. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Skies have gone mostly clear across much of the area early this morning but we are beginning to see some patchy VFR SC forming across portions of eastern Indiana. Am a little concerned this may fill in a bit more over the next few hours so will just allow for some scattered SC at the TAF sites through the early morning hours. Otherwise, with light flow across the area, we should see some MVFR to locally IFR fog development once again through daybreak, especially in the southern river valleys. As we destabilize through the day, scattered cu is once again expected. It will also be tough to rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm but the chance is low enough to leave any mention out of the TAFs. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Friday through Sunday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM...Hickman AVIATION...JGL

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