Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 270556 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 156 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms will develop today into tonight as low pressure moves to Lake Michigan. After a brief visit by high pressure and drier air early Monday, another low will bring more showers and thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday. Dry weather can be expected Wednesday under high pressure. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... A weakening upper level low and an associated trough axis will continue to pivot off to our northeast overnight. This will allow for the scattered shower and isolated thunderstorms to taper off through the early morning hours. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Monday an area of upper level low pressure will push east across the central United States. This second system will be right on the heals of the Sunday upper level low and will bring a quick return for the chance of showers and thunderstorms. After the brief break Monday morning the upper level low will move towards Illinois with pockets of PVA crossing the ILN forecast area. PWATs will also be on the rise towards 1.10" (NAM and GFS). The best upper level lift from the RRQ will be further south towards Kentucky but with a weak upper level jet streak moving overhead think upper level support will be more than sufficient. MU CAPE values on the NAM across the southern zones are nearing 1500 J/kg while are only around 500 J/kg on the GFS. On the GFS the greatest 0-3km bulk shear is also further south across KY. The NAM on the other hand is more north with the greatest shear and instability. Thanks to the mentioned above SPC has most of the area in a marginal risk. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Severe risk continues into Monday evening as an area of low pressure moves across the region. Isolated damaging winds, isolated large hail, and isolated tornadoes will be possible. Have this highlighted in the HWO. Severe threat will diminish later in the overnight hours as the area of low pressure moves out of the region. Additional showers and some thunderstorms will be possible across primarily the southeastern half of the forecast area on Tuesday closer to a frontal boundary. Dry conditions are then expected for Wednesday and Wednesday night in between systems. A warm front will lift northward on Thursday allowing for showers and some thunderstorms. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue for Friday as a cold front moves through. Precipitation will taper off Friday night into Saturday morning. Another system will move into the area on Sunday. There are more model differences with this system therefore limited precipitation chances to the chance category. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Area lies under weak high pressure situated between low pressure systems to the north and southwest. Models have presented a relatively good depiction of this scenario for the last few days, lending some confidence to the forecast, though the details like ceiling height are still going to be tricky. Early in the forecast, conditions will be mainly VFR under the temporarily dry airmass, though FG will impact LUK through early morning. Other TAF sites may see MVFR ceilings later this morning before VFR returns by afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will return later in the forecast with low pressure advancing from the southwest. Showers may arrive early in the afternoon, with thunderstorms developing in the vicinity by evening in increasing instability and forcing ahead of the low. A period of MVFR is expected with the thunderstorms, and IFR is possible at CVG after 06z Tuesday. Winds shifting from southwest to southeast are forecast to remain below 10 knots. LUK OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible into Tuesday morning.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...Coniglio

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